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26
Dominion Articles / Refreshing the Dominion Paradigms
« on: April 03, 2017, 04:36:21 pm »
Refreshing the Dominion Paradigms

Dominion has changed a lot. The cards have changed, the players have changed, and, well, perhaps what I’m getting at, is that the strategies have changed. Not completely or totally, of course. Many of us remember the terminology established by Wandering Winder on deck types: Engines, Big Money, Slogs, Rushes, and Combos. I would argue, however, that thinking about decks in these terms has become increasingly irrelevant, and therefore that re-thinking and generalizing our lexicon will help players adapt to the game more quickly.

There are a couple of reasons for this. The first, most glaring note is probably on the victory of the engine deck in Dominion. It has become excessively common for Engine to be the best strategy in Dominion, although of course a player like myself would argue that they are played too often, but nonetheless Engine tends to be obviously correct on a good number of boards, so much so that calling a board an “Engine” board is almost meaningless. We should establish more meaningful distinctions around different types of engines, since currently our only real distinctions in the lexicon refer to how the engines are drawn, i.e. draw-to-x, village/smithy, and non-terminal.

Other reasons, which I will not dive into with as much detail in order to hopefully retain some readers for pieces of this article in which I actually say something, include the growing confusion about the difference between Big Money and “Good Stuff” decks (a proliferation added later by Wandering Winder), the awkward melding of Rushes and Slogs, what even constitutes the difference between a Slog deck and a Big Money deck with junk (I actually think WW answers this question well. More on that later), and the overwhelming rarity of the relevance of rush and combo decks.

Defining the Engine Deck

An engine deck, in the general sense, is quite simply a deck that seeks to reliably play a bunch of action cards each turn. While that’s a useful distinction from other types of strategies, it doesn’t really give much insight into how to build the darn things. I am going to attempt to classify these decks into meaningful patterns, and then later (in different articles) circle back to distinctions to be made within even different subgenres of these classes of decks.

The Control Engine
Some engines don’t care so much about what you do with them so much as they care that you can do stuff with them. Notably, these decks refer to the importance of being able to reliably draw your deck every turn, for the whole game, and to get there as fast as possible. And, generally, this is important because if you are able to do so and your opponent isn’t, there is some way to just completely bury your opponent. These tend to be games where Silver and Gold become very bad cards quite quickly.

Some examples of these games include:
  • The very obvious Ambassador war, in which you can junk your opponent to Oblivion by playing multiple Ambassadors of various junk ever turn.
  • Games featuring cards that can slow your opponent like Ghost Ship, where if you slow down your opponent’s pace, it can be very difficult or impossible for them to recover. Militia-based games can be this way too, though control is slightly less fiercely important in those games.
  • Games where there are other ways to junk your opponent into oblivion while maintaining control of your deck. Think King’s Court/Mountebank. Or just Familiar.

Some important features of control decks:
  • Thinning tends to be very important in these decks. The thinning, however, should have a purpose, and that purpose should be to play as many cards as possible to slow down your opponent, as often as possible. If you’re the first one to slow your opponent down, and you keep the pressure on every turn, it can often snowball and be impossible for them to recover even if they have a card like Chapel in their decks.
  • Payload and greening should be delayed as long as possible in these decks. Draw and reliability should take absolutely priority. Points tend to really not matter, unless the game is ending incredibly soon, which, in these types of games, isn’t going to be for a long time.
  • On some boards, thinning can be slightly less important than splits, though be careful about making this assumption. Imagine, for example, a board where Alchemist is the only draw. If you have 6 and they have 4, you are going to be able to support 2 extra stop cards that your opponent can not, and if those 2 extra cards are something like Ambassador you may be able to recover from being slightly thicker as long as you aren’t completely overwhelmed in the thinning department. So focus on thinning, but don’t ignore key cards, either.

Control decks can draw from basically any engine draw paradigm. Draw-to-x, nonterminal, and village/smithy decks all apply. Note that non-terminal draw tends to be quite strong in these decks, since nonterminal draw becomes reliable much more quickly than village/smithy draw, and offers better guarantees of success. In games where you have choices, however, you should probably be using every source of draw available to you in order to maximize efficiency and reliability. Note that draw-to-x doesn’t apply here, since draw-to-x doesn’t mesh with other draw types, as drawing to 7 if you already have 10 cards in hand from your Lab stack is obviously quite poor.

The Mega-Turn Engine
This is an engine where there is the ability to do something really awesome, and you don’t need to green over multiple turns, but only one. I don’t have much thesis-level stuff to say about these decks, actually, so I’ll just hop straight into details.

Some examples of these games include:
  • Horn of Plenty megaturns, where you get a bunch of Horn in Plenty’s in play along with at least 8 unique cards, and you take all the green cards.
  • Bridge(Highway/Troll) megaturns, where you get a bunch of cost reducers in play, and with +Buy, you take all the green cards.
  • Humongous Engine megaturns. Think Council Room/Wharf/Champion, where there’s not any really great cards payload out there for a megaturn, but the deck supports so much draw that it’s simply not necessary to green over multiple turns unless the game state dictates that you do.

Some important features of control decks:
  • These decks are typically a race to mega-turn first, although sometimes in mirrors there can be enough denial to limit the effectiveness of a mega-turn. Nonetheless, you should be playing for the mega-turn all game, and then reacting to something else only if the game state (i.e. piles are too low) forces you to bail out early and start taking points.
  • Just because there’s amazing power on the board, you still shouldn’t neglect thinning. At the same time, however, it can be important to slightly favor economy. In a control deck, for example, you might open Amulet/Amulet to get thin, but in a mega-turn deck maybe you open Amulet/Silver to add that Wharf in early to get big turns kicking off sooner rather than later.
  • These games often end in pile-outs, not mega-turns, so be careful about that. While a Throne Room/Bridge deck certainly can take 8 Provinces, and if your opponent allows you, it should, Throne/Room Bridge decks are also very capable of buying a lot of cards from the supply and a single Estate in one turn, and ending the game with 1-0 lead. You need to track your opponent’s gains very carefully, and make sure that you’re never letting your opponent win on their next turn unless you’re far behind and need to take calculated risks that your opponent might dud on their turn.

The As-Good-As-it-Gets Engine
Sometimes, the engine is just not very good. It’s never going to draw deck, it’s never going to be reliable, and it’s certainly never going to mega-turn. But here’s the rub: Dominion is a game about turns. Namely, Dominion is a game about average turns. Sometimes the attempt to play a lot of actions cards every turn will be very finicky, but if you’re still going to have a better average turn than your opponent playing a money-centered deck (where their best case scenario is hitting $8 unreliably, for example), then you should build the engine deck.

Some examples of these games include (these are little more complicated to outline):
  • Cartographer/Wishing Well/Conspirator/Nomad Camp/Inn, with no thinning. This board features weak thinning, weak draw, and weak +Buy. Your turns are going to be very finicky, because essentially unless you have two nonterminals in hand to start your turn, you aren’t going to kick off, and that’s going to happen fairly often. But still, your average turn is going to be better than your opponent who is doing, what, playing Nomad Camp big money?
  • Fishing Village/Ghost Ship, limited to no thinning. That’s weak draw, and certainly going to be very unreliable. However, just the fact that you’re going to be playing Ghost Ships more often than your opponent puts you in a good spot. Note that this differs from a control deck, because you’re not actually going to be reliably playing Ghost Ships every turn.
  • Highway/Chapel/no Draw. Sure, you’ll have one or two pretty good turns with your 5-6 highways. But as soon as you green, you aren’t drawing deck any more. So temper your expectations, but of course you’re still going to be doing better than the deck that doesn’t play the weak Highway thing.

Some important features about these decks:
  • You’re going to lose with these decks, sometimes, even against a simpler strategy. Unlike a mega-turn or control deck, they aren’t going to have a 100% win-rate against even poorly played or weak money strategies. You need good draws throughout the game, and Dominion makes no guarantee of that. Nonetheless, they should be played as long as you’re giving yourself a >50% chance of winning with them.
  • These are also decks where Silver and Gold can be a very bad card, because every stop card that you add to your deck decreases your chance of kicking off, which is already pretty bad to start with. Don’t completely neglect payload, but add it in slowly, as you should be focusing on cards that help you kick off, even if that kicking off remains unreliable.
  • You green in these decks earlier than in Control and Mega-turn decks, since, well, you have to score points sometimes, and you’re never going to be too reliable anyways. Still, if you’re asking the question about if you should green or keep building, the answer is almost always to keep building.


The Standard Good Engine
I saved this one for last since, although it is probably most common (but not overwhelmingly so), it is also the least prescriptive. These decks tend to be decks where the payload is good but not awesome (think Wine Merchant/Courtier/Monument, heck, even Gold), but there are reliable sources of draw/actions/thinning/gains, and so the engine is the obvious choice.

Some examples of these games include:
  • Village/Smithy/Laboratory/Wine Merchant/Remake. Obviously this is a strong engine, but it’s okay if you dud a turn or two as long as you’re giving yourself a good shot at having nice big turns.
  • Alchemist/Worker’s Village/Amulet/Advisor. This engine is going to be a little slow to set up, but you’re going to be building for a while and then probably greening over 2/3+ turns. Your payload here is probably Silver, just because you can use your Amulets to keep gaining it while you can focus your buys on adding draw.
  • Storyteller/Treasure Trove/Chapel. Again, this is going to be a quite good deck, but you’re going to have to green before you have $30 of buying power in your deck. It’s not a mega-turn, and control is not terribly important, but it’s pretty reliable and can still pull off some fairly excellent turns (which is what differentiates this from a “As-Good-As-it-Gets” engine).

Some features of these decks include:
  • You still typically want to do everything you can to make these decks reliable. Dudding remains really bad, even if it’s not game over in these decks. This means you want to thin/trash persistently, add in sifting (such as Dungeon) if you can, and have some ability to overdraw your deck for (A) reliability, and (B) the ability to keep your deck running once you start greening, since you’re going to be greening usually over at least 2 turns in these decks.
  • Pay attention to the availability of +Buy. While +Buy is available on roughly 88% of boards, it’s actually usable on a decent number less than that, and if there’s not usable +Buy it’s usually in your best interest to build to a deck that reliably hits $8, and no more. Cards like Haggler can be really nice for helping you continue to hit $8 while staying reliable.
  • You can afford to take some chances on payload in these decks. Adding in extra payload that you’ll probably but not definitely be able to play on these boards can be okay, and you can take some chances to try and get ahead since typically these games are going to be pretty close. Don’t be stupid though, if you’re probably going to dud, you should be adding in reliability. But at the same time, feel free to make your deck less than 100% in the mid-game in order to get ahead.
  • Even if junk is eventually going to get cleaned up in these decks, you still want to do it. Don’t ignore Witch in these decks ever, please. This is less about control than pace. If you’re adding payload while your opponent is still cleaning up, that’s another way to get ahead. And getting ahead is how you win, of course.

Okay, so that’s it for the engine types that I think deserve distinctions. Of course there are meaningful distinctions to be made even within those paradigms, and many games tend to flirt between the lines. Keeping those deck types in mind, however, can help keep your expectations and buys aligned with a focused plan that will see you winning more games than you otherwise would with less focus.

Money, Big Money, Money-ish, Whatever

When it comes to money games, I take an opposite stance to that of Engines. Notably, it’s that I think distinctions tend to be harmful here rather than beneficial. I’m not going to focus on specific examples here so much as describe the kinds of things to look out for and exploit in these types of games, and also to a lesser extend when to play these sort of decks over the above “As-Good-As-it-Gets” engine choice.

Features of these decks:
  • Silver and Gold, are, of course good cards. Many kingdom cards tend to help out, however. A good rule of thumb is that two kingdom terminals is usually correct, and, if those terminals are durations, then three is usually correct. If the terminals are not draw cards (and, really, you should relatively rarely play terminal draw BM mostly because it prohibits this), you can add in other useful cantrips with impunity.
  • Kingdom Treasures are really good. Treasure Trove is tremendous for these decks (and also because it baloons your deck, allows you to play with extra terminals). But watch out for cards like Relic. If the engine is playing Relic most/every turn, you’re going to have a lot of trouble hitting $8 with 4 card hands.
  • Points are the name of the game. This generally means two things
    • Green early. You want to be ahead in these games, not have a better deck. Standard “Big Money” means you don’t Province until you have $18 in your deck total, but most Kingdom Card strategies allow you to buy Provinces earlier than that, which basically means typically you buy one Gold and then it’s all Provinces on $8.
    • Cards that give points are really great. This means Monument. But it also means Witch/Swamp Hag/Ill-Gotten-Gains, and doing things that would normally be dumb like buying Temple mostly just for the VP Chips, or taking the Defiled Shrine relatively early (but please, don’t over-do this. You still need to hit $8). If you need any proof that points are important, here’s some: 1. Swamp Hag BM beats Cultist BM 2. Buying a single Ill-Gotten-Gains and otherwise playing straight big money beats straight Big Money 70% of the time!
  • Any way you can add in reliability is great
    • Baker is a big help, because smoothing out your hands that are quite honestly completely random is great.
    • Cards like Gear are also really great to this, and to a lesser extent even Haven can be very useful. But be careful about opportunity cost, because Silver is great here!
  • Gaining extra cards is great, and trashing is good as long as it doesn’t take you too far out of your way. Don’t over-do it, as a single trasher is usually plenty.
    • An early Raze or Hermit can still be quite good to get some crap out, and, in the latter case, add some good stuff in.
    • In Colony/Platinum gains, put more emphasis on trashing since the game will go longer and it’s more important to clean out Copper.

When to play these decks, non-forced:
I’ve garnered somewhat of a reputation for being a player who plays a lot of non-forced money, i.e. I play money-based strategies on boards where a “As-Good-As-it-Gets” engine is available. Although not really, after all, because the as-good-as-it-gets deck isn’t always an engine, believe it or not. Here are some of the things I look for:

  • How well is the engine going to green? If the only engine draw is Menagerie and there’s no discarding, then the engine is going to start choking as soon as it gets it’s second province.
  • How fast is the engine going to grow? If there’s no +Buy and the other gaining is weak or irrelevant, then the engine is going to take forever buying parts while you’re adding green consistently.
  • How is the engine going to score? If the money player has to take (at least almost) all the Provinces to win, then he/she is probably not going to have a lot of success. But if you just need 5, you’re going to have a lot better chance at success.
  • How fast is the engine going to be reliable? Maybe the engine doesn’t have great payload, but if it can start having good turns relatively quickly, you’re not going to be able to out-run it with your relatively random money deck.
  • If the engine can’t compete on Junk without adding in cards they don’t really want into their deck, maybe the engine isn’t best. Think Jack as the only trashing or Soothsayer as the only cursing.

Don’t be afraid to play with a lot of kingdom cards in this deck, but be careful, and don’t try to over-complicate things by adding in cards that are only marginally useful. A village that might only sometimes be useful is probably worse than just sticking extra Silver in decks like these.

The Points Slog

Okay, this is really just a slog. The problem is, lots of people call games “sloggy” just because there is junk involved even if the game is more of a money game. Here’s the key thing with slogs, and this is something Wandering Winder pointed out long ago: It’s not about if there’s junk involved or not; it’s about playing a long game where you’re trying to amass an insurmountable number of points in a very unreliable, thick deck.

Some examples of these games:
  • Masterpiece/Trader | Feodum. Oh, did I mention that I’m in favor of killing the “Combo” deck? Because I am. These are slog decks.
  • Silk Road/Herbalist/Inheritance/Treasure Trove. I mention this because it occurred in a recent game, but the point here is that you’re inheriting Herbalist and playing a thick deck very quickly, in which you’re buying a lot of Herbalist Estates and Silk Roads very early, after probably 2 Treasure Troves before any of that. Your deck is going to be ugly, but it’s going to have a ton of points. And while hitting $8 remains nice, it’s not the point of the deck (which is why this is a slog and not a money deck).
  • Ironworks / Garden | Silk Road. I think it’s worth killing the “rush” distinction too. Because the reality is that you play rush and slog decks exactly the same way, only slog decks don’t attempt a pile-out while rush decks do. But every turn looks the same, as you’re doing something relatively weak but it’s scoring points every turn, and it’s starting early. Rushes just end faster because they have a natural third pile.
  • On the rush note, Ball/Death Cart/Gardens. This tends to end the game quickly with a decent number of points, but you’re still doing the same (relatively weak) thing every turn.
  • Horse Traders | Duchy/Duke. Yeah, I don’t need to explain this one.

Some Features of these games:
  • These decks tend to be very weak. If there is a good or even decent engine on the board, you’re probably going to get out-raced. However, strong enablers of these strategies tend to be able to far outpace money-based strategies and weaker engines.
  • These strategies tend to be focused around (A) getting to the part of the game where they score points very quickly, and (B) continuing to be able to score points throughout the duration of the game. This means you typically need extra gains, and to continue to be able to stick extra treasure and action cards in your deck while greening. Even if it’s just Copper.
  • Of course, some of these decks aren’t weak and will dominate almost every board. The above mentioned Masterpiece/Feodum, for example is one of those.

Okay, that will wrap up at least part one of my work on trying to define and describe decks in a meaningful and helpful fashion. I’ve purposely omitted some deck paradigms or sub-paradigms, such as golden decks, etc. I’m sure I missed some things, and I’m absolutely sure I said some things that merit disagreement. I’m also completely sure that many will find the entirety of these distinctions nearly completely useless. But I also know this: there’s still a lot of room for us (and I mean all of us, all the way from poor to good players) to get a lot better at this game.

27
Guide is best in weak engines where you're relatively (i.e. well short of 100%) unlikely to kick off.

It's not a great slog/money card--though an early one or two can still be okay to good--mostly because it's competing with Silver, and Silver is a really good card in slogs. A notable exception to this is when you have 4-cost junkers that you can open with and you just want to play them as often as possible until the Curses are gone.

28
Dominion League / Re: Season 20 - Results
« on: March 30, 2017, 10:07:20 pm »
breppert 6 - 0 Singletee

I won't be back next season. Simply put, it's just too much of a (solid block of) time commitment for me with what my life is right now. I've had a lot of fun playing in the league these 4 seasons--Thanks mods!

29
Dominion League / Re: Season 20 - Announcing Matches
« on: March 27, 2017, 12:33:42 pm »
I'm playing Dingan tonight at 9:30p EST (1:30 UTC)

I also believe Dingan is playing Singletee today at 3:00p EST (19:00 UTC)

30
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: Dominion Card Image Generator v1.2
« on: March 13, 2017, 11:13:31 pm »
I just wanted to pop in and say that this is a really great tool you've built.

Seems darn near feature complete, and excellently easy to use.

31
Dominion League / Re: Suggestion: 4-game matches
« on: March 10, 2017, 03:36:29 pm »
I would be more likely to re-join the league again if the matches were shortened. I know that that's just a personal thing as even just plain two hour long matches are hard for me to commit to, and I never liked the long series of games even before the new cards, but thus I remain.

32

Dungeon: Really good at digging for the card you want, I think even better than Warehouse, which is already a pretty good card for this. Generally want 2-3, past the 3rd is often a bit much but can be right in junkier games. Has a bit of a Cartographer effect - a few Dungeons let you pretend like your deck is thinner. Not as good as trashing, of course, but sometimes you don't have trashers in the game.
It's often worth it to have alternating Dungeons even when you don't have junk cards in your deck, to increase your reliability of kicking off.  Consider the classic Village + Smithy engine.  Finding the cards to kick off out of 7 cards is much better than out of 5 cards.  Breppert has done some eyebrow-raising simulation to demonstrate this.

So your deck is the following:
2 Curses
7 Coppers
2 Mountebanks
1 Gold
2 Silver
5 Smithy
6 Village
2 Market

You want to maximize the the average (mean) $ output and Mountebank plays for this next turn. You have two options
(1): Add 4 Villages and 4 Smithies to your deck.
(2): Have a duration Dungeon down.

Which one do you choose?

So if you don't add anything you average $11.3 and 1.05 Mountebank plays
If you add 4 of each component you average $15.08 and 1.47 Mountebank plays
If you add the duration Dungeon you average $15.18 and 1.51 Mountebank plays


Spoilers continued (I'm not going to make everything black)....
This is obviously a rather thick deck, so the importance of Dungeon is magnified, but also note that your chance to draw deck given the existing set-up is 0% (you're 2 cards short), but adding 4 Villages and 4 Smithies remains worse than having just a single Dungeon down. I don't have the other numbers or time currently in front of me, but until your deck gets very, very, very thin it remains better to have a Dungeon down every turn rather than having extra components for a long time.

33
Dominion League / Re: Season 20 - Results
« on: March 04, 2017, 01:34:52 pm »
I won't be playing next season. These league matches have grown too long for me, both from a playing and taking-time-away-from-other things perspective. I might be back in later seasons, but it will definitely be good for me to at least take a break.

34
Dominion League / Re: Season 20 - Announcing Matches
« on: March 04, 2017, 11:24:11 am »
I'll be playing ADK in a few minutes.

35
What a truly terrible time that board looks like.

I would open swindler/silver into torturer BM and get the heck out of there.

36
Game Reports / Re: Pirate Ship is good here, right?
« on: February 12, 2017, 10:17:09 am »
Pship could be good here, but probably only if your opponent is playing moneyish. Hitting $2 is fine here, which helps the pship player. But you're a little starved for terminal space if the villages are contested which they should be, and pship makes it hard to hit 5, which you really want to do as replace is quite good here.

37
Game Reports / Re: Shortest games around
« on: February 12, 2017, 10:07:15 am »
Market Square + Donate + Apprentice empties 8 Provinces in 8 turns even if only one player does it, so I think you can end the game on Provinces around turn 6 in a mirror. Maybe turn 5 with Shelters and really good shuffle luck.

38
Dominion Articles / Re: Challenge: write a Moat article
« on: February 10, 2017, 12:10:29 pm »
My favorite use of Moat is on engines boards where all the pieces are there, but there's a junker and limited thinning (such as copper-only thinning, as if there's no thinning at all you're probably just lost). If you can gain cheap cards easily, such as Villages and Moat's, it can be correct to flood your deck with them and win the junking war and the game.

39
Dominion Articles / Re: Opening Probabilities: A Study
« on: February 09, 2017, 10:27:32 am »
I know I said I was going to do more articles on this, and while I still plan on it I've had a lot of other stuff going so my priorities are a bit jumbled. Instead of delaying until I get an entire article written however, I thought the Masquerade numbers were interesting enough (and the fact that they were requested) to go ahead and post here.

Attending the Masquerade

Openings and $$4$5$6$7
Masquerade/Silver100%93.6%35.0%0%
Masquerade/Masquerade97.2%35%6.1%0%
Masquerade/Poacher99.5%75.2%28.7%2.9%
Masquerade/Warehouse96.3%45.9%4.4%0%
Masquerade/Nothing100%59%6.7%0%

Openings and $$3/3$4/4$5/5
Masquerade/Silver94.7%61.9%6.9%
Masquerade/Masquerade90.8%37.5%8.4%
Masquerade/Poacher94.7%59.2%11.9%
Masquerade/Warehouse94.9%59.5%5.8%
Masquerade/Nothing94.9%59.5%5.8%


Cards Trashed012Average
Masquerade/Silver16.6%83.4%0.0%0.83
Masquerade/Masquerade1.5%60.7%37.8%1.36
Masquerade/Poacher9.1%85.5%5.4%0.96
Masquerade/Warehouse1.5%79.7%18.8%1.17
Masquerade/Nothing9.1%84.4%6.5%0.97

Well, those are a lot of numbers. The conclusions are really for you guys, but here are some quick take-aways:
  • Double Masquerade is a huge downgrade in economy, and only offers a relatively modest uptick in trashing. It can still be correct, but you have to be prepared for the large economic downside.
  • Masq/Silver offers significantly better economy than Masq/Poacher, and the trashing benefit of Masq/Poacher is minimal. So don't just auto-buy the Peddler variant.
  • Masq/Warehouse seems like a reasonable opening, as it not only really cycles you, but it also offers better economy than Masq/Masq.

Some trivia on the above:
  • The fact that you're passing from a 7 card hand and receiving from a 5 card hand makes a noticeable, though small difference in Masq's economy. You're a few percentage points more likely to pass an estate and receive a copper than vice versa.
  • When discarding (such as with Warehouse), Estates are discarded first, but one Estate is left in hand if Masquerade is about to be played. The above numbers aren't smart enough to discard all of the Estates in hand if an Estate is likely to be drawn in the next two cards.

40
Dominion League / Re: Season 19 - Results
« on: February 07, 2017, 12:58:21 am »
breppert 4 - 2 Scotty2Hotty

I'll be back next season.

41
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: trade route buff
« on: February 06, 2017, 10:46:37 am »
It would still be a weak card at $2 per VP stack. Buying an Estate early would still make no sense (since it's a shared thing, you'd be taking on an extra Estate, which is really bad, and your opponent could start adding Trade Route's to reap the benefit).

And it would have to wait until the dying moments of the game to be worth much, and even then how often are more piles than just Province are bought early enough to meaningfully add $2-$4 terminal compulsive trashers to your deck in the late game? Sure, it could be a lot of points in a game with like, Silk Road and Harem, but that's a very specialized case and also the time when terminal compulsive trashers are at their weakest (slogs).

So sure, you could make it worth $6 in every game, but I don't think you would because doing so wouldn't really give you any real advantage unless your opponent is a complete ninny.

42
Dominion League / Re: Season 19 - Results
« on: February 04, 2017, 08:34:57 pm »
C1

breppert 6 - 0 Jimmmmmmmm

43
Dominion League / Re: Season 19 - Results
« on: February 02, 2017, 11:22:13 pm »
C1

breppert 4.5 - 1.5 Beyond Awesome

It was a pleasure playing with you Beyond Awesome, you're a great guy.

44
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: Dominion: Highlands
« on: February 02, 2017, 11:48:34 am »
It seems like you're asking 2 questions:

Yes you can post alternate versions of my cards, I think I made this clear but if you want to make a version feel free to do so and post it! I'd love to see it.

Yeah I can see that I might be being rude. I've been pretty rushed recently because of life, and you are right that I seem to have sacrificed some of my decency for that. I'll try to make ammends. I was assuming SettlingFraming would be okay with it (and I still hope he is), but it was wrong of me to assume so.

I'm totally fine with it, these are just fan cards ideas and any adoptions/improvements are welcome. In addition, I'm not really planning on taking the time to finish fixing up this set in the near future, so having them be useful elsewhere is great.

One small note on your versions: Fur Trader has you gaining a card costing exactly one less than it for yourself--is this intentional? It makes the card significantly weaker, and I don't feel like the card really needed to be made weaker at all.

45
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: Making More ShuffleIT (1.1.2)
« on: January 31, 2017, 05:54:48 pm »
I've moved on to other projects, so I'm not going to be supporting this any more. If you're lucky, I'll bug fix this (I know there's at least one annoying bug with it), but I wouldn't count that.

Icehawk's thing (has features some of you guys have asked for): https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/kings-courtier/ldclbofdofipkpgnilkjaalbalnjacjk/related?hl=en-US&gl=US
Ceviri's thing:Um, should be on this subforum somewhere close.

46
Dominion League / Re: Season 19 - Results
« on: January 26, 2017, 11:29:00 pm »
C1

breppert 3 - 3 Horist

47
Dominion League / Re: Season 19 - Announcing Matches
« on: January 26, 2017, 08:02:44 pm »
I will be playing Horist in exactly 1.5 hours. You can definitely spectate, and I will probably be commentating on the match in Discord. Depending on how much time I have, I might also be making a recording of the match.

48
Dominion Articles / Re: Opening Probabilities: A Study
« on: January 26, 2017, 04:48:38 pm »
By any chance can we get one of those cool probability table thingies for Masquerade (Masq/Silver vs. Masq/Masq vs Masq/cantrip vs Masq/nothing etc.)?

You betcha. It will be in the next article.

Here are some of my suggestions.

Bonfire - Maybe something like average number of cards in deck at a given turn compared to the Chapel and Steward variations.

Baker - In the opening, how much does having a single coin token smooth the probability distribution regarding 5/2 and 4/3?  If you can save the token for turns 3-4, how does this impact the percentages for hitting certain price points or combinations? 

Borrow - Similar to Baker for how this impacts the opening.  What kind of trade off is expected regarding money for the Coin/Card trade?  Is there a quantifiable difference that can justify the loss in tempo?

Bonfire: You betcha. Baker/Borrow I'll do, but I'll save them for a separate article that's more about decision making in those scenarios (and maybe definitely I'll also include Save!).

I'm going to be releasing a follow-up to this with a big batch of common openings shortly, which means probably tomorrow. After that one, I have three to four more follow-ups planned, all of which I hope to come up with more clever names.
  • Durations in the Open
  • Everything about Potion
  • Handling Flexibility
  • Weak Trashing

49
Dominion Articles / Opening Probabilities: A Study
« on: January 25, 2017, 05:37:18 pm »
Feel free to skip around this article. I know it's long with lots of text, and it's perfectly fine if you just go to whatever section(s) you find interesting.

An Introduction

Dominion is, at it's core, a game of probabilities. This is something we know and love, especially because the probabilities of Dominion are often so vast that they get in touch with our pure thought-stuff, and reckon with the limits of our reasoning.
   
But there is also much that we can know about Dominion, and that is what this article is about. Specifically, this article is going to be dealing with the first few turns of Dominion in very concise, exact ways. While there is much more to Dominion than the opening turns, they are often the most important ones and largely set the pace of the game. Also, those turns are rather simple, and you should nearly exactly know what chances you are giving yourself. Here’s what you need to know when considering openings, from both hitting numbers and trashing cards standpoints.

The Economy is Thriving
   
We’re a salty bunch, Dominion players. We often get super mad if we do something like don’t hit 5. But how unlucky are we? I’ll start this article gently with some basic openings, and compare the differences. The first table is the probability of hitting a number at least once on turns 3-4, while the second table shows you the probability you have of hitting at least a number on both turns 3 and 4.

Openings and $$4$5$6$7
Poacher/Silver100%91.8%37.8%6.3%
Silver/Silver100%91.2%42.5%8.8%

Openings and $$3/3$4/4$5/5
Poacher/Silver94.7%62.6%8.2%
Silver/Silver94.7%64.6%14.9%


The difference between a Peddler Variant (in this case Poacher) and Silver in the opening may surprise you, mostly because there’s not much of one. We all know that opening a cantrip card is great for cycling, and that cycling is great, but also you’re really not at all harming your chances of hitting a number by doing so. By opening Tournament/Silver your odds of hitting 5 are almost exactly the same, while your odds of hitting 6 or 7 are very slightly lower. Maybe if your plan is to do something like Hireling-Big Money then Silver/Silver is defensible since you have a 5% greater chance to hit $6, but other than that you’re always going to want the Peddler variant.

Playing or Praying the Chapel


Alright, let’s move on to some less obvious stuff. One of the angriest moments of Dominion is if your Chapel misses the shuffle. So, what’s the difference between opening Cantrip/Chapel, and Silver/Chapel?

Openings and Cards Trashed034
Chapel/Cantrip9%0%91%
Chapel/Silver16.6%30.3%53.1%

It turns out there’s a pretty significant difference between average number of cards trashed with Chapel when opening with a Silver (or other stop card) and a cantrip. Namely, Chapel/Silver trashes on average 3.03 cards while Chapel/Cantrip trashes 3.64.

The reason for this is two-fold, the first being that having a Silver in your deck instead of a cantrip increases the chance that Chapel misses the shuffle by more than 7%, and the second being that the Silver will be sitting (nearly) uselessly in a collision with your Chapel 30.3% of the time. With strong trashing, the importance of opening a cantrip may be less about the presence of the effect of the cantrip, and more about just getting the heck out of the way of whatever else you’re doing.

Going Big or Going Home with Double Terminals

Another question often faced in the opening is pretty straightforward: Should I open double terminal? Well in order to answer that, you need to know how good the terminals are (i.e. is it worth risking collision), but also the chances of actually getting to play them. The table below shows %’es of the time that you get to play both cards or if you just get to play one of them, either because they collided or one missed the shuffle.

Terminal Plays012
%1.5%60.6%37.8%

A couple main points from this table: Both your cards will miss the shuffle 1.5% of the time. This is definitely something to get salty about, and often means you just lose. You only get to play both cards on turns 3/4 37.8% of the time, though of course it can be really, really good if you get to do so. Finally, you get to play only one of the cards 60.6% of the time. So you shouldn’t be expecting to be able to play both cards if you open double terminal, though it can be a very real possibility.

Steward: A Double Terminal Case Study

Double Steward is one of those hot topic debates that keeps us up at night. Okay maybe not so much, but anyways, I want everyone to sleep well. There are a few key questions with Double Steward that you need to ask. How important is being thin? Am I fine with the $2’s? Do I need to hit numbers any time soon? How good are two Stewards in my deck long term?

Sometimes the answers to those questions are marginal, and then it’s really important to know what double Steward actually does for you. Here are some tables detailing (a) how many cards Steward actually lets you trash, assuming you always choose to trash, and (b) what is the difference between opening Steward/Steward and Steward/Silver in terms of hitting numbers (again, assuming always trashing).

Openings and Cards Trashed024
Steward/Steward1.5%60.6%37.8%
Steward/Silver16.7%83.3%0%

A couple quick notes on the above table:
  • You should see the usefulness of knowing the double terminal opening odds for Steward/Steward.
  • Steward/Steward trashes 2.72 cards on average, while Steward/Silver trashes only 1.6. Recall that Chapel/Silver trashes on average 3.03 cards, meaning that Steward/Steward is remarkably similar to Chapel/Silver at thinning rates.

And here’s the economy table.

Openings and $$2$3$4$5$6
Steward/Steward100%57.1%31.9%5.3%0%
Steward/Silver100%98.7%76%40.7%8.8%

Openings and $$2/2$3/3$4/4$5/5
Steward/Steward66.1%1.3%0%0%
Steward/Silver98.2%42.8%7.1%0%

In terms of economy, it’s not even close. Steward/Steward means that you aren’t going to be able to buy high-$ cards for a while, since even your chance of hitting even just 3 just once before the next shuffle is only 57.1%, and if you were planning on picking up a $4 village before shuffling, well good luck with that since you only have a 31.9% chance of hitting $4. Steward/Silver is much, much stronger at nearly everything, providing reasonable chances of hitting most numbers, though of course being weaker than a straight-up double economy opening. Of course, one can choose to use their second Steward for economy, but that is a dubious plan for risking the double terminal. One of the main benefits of opening double Steward may in fact be in reducing the chance that your trasher misses the shuffle, giving yourself a 98.5% chance to trash at least once instead of only an 83.3% chance.

An Outroduction

Of course there is much more to playing Dominion than just knowing the percentages. You need to build a deck, and you need to know where you’re going. But knowing the percentages can help inform you and help the decisions you make be just a little less in the dark. I plan on doing more follow-ups to this article, some with more specific or in-depth focuses, or even just different concepts such as durations in the opening.

Until then, I hope we can all keep learning, and be just be a little less bad at Dominion.

Addendum: It's been brought to my attention that it would be good to include this, so here's a link to an old Wandering Winder article that shows probabilities of hitting price points for a variety of economy-based openings: https://wanderingwindergames.blogspot.com/2015/05/dominion-opening-theory-money-matters.html

50
Dominion General Discussion / MOVED: Opening Probabilities A Case Study
« on: January 25, 2017, 05:23:29 pm »
Moved to: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=16884.new#new

Sorry about that. Feel free to delete this thread, mods.

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