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951
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 2)
« on: November 28, 2016, 02:25:06 pm »
Okay, so I've been going through the thread making sure I didn't miss too much over Thanksgiving (I tried to keep up to date even if I couldn't post). My reads and thoughts:

GKrieg13:
Nothing seemed super scummy although he didn't get on the Jake wagon until the very end. While this could very much be a town thing, I could see scum predicting that the Jake wagon would go through and therefore staying off of it as long as possible to avoid seeming suspicious when he flips town. I don't know how likely that is, but I want to put it out there. Leaning town.

Roadrunner7671:
Lots and lots of posts. The vast majority of them have been one line and almost all about Jake. He doesn't seem to have done anything useful other than getting our Cop lynched. Not convinced, but I could see this being scum acti-lurking. Leaning scum.

SpaceAnemone:
No read to speak of.

McGarnacle:
Not sure what to make of the Doctor claim, especially after I was convinced that Jake was lying and he wasn't. In D1, when accused of being scum, his defense was along the lines of inexperience, having played this way as town in previous games, and never having been scum. In post #598, McGarnacle once again plays up the newness. Then there's choosing RR as his Doctor choice. I'd say scum, but I'm worried because of the Doctor claim. Unsure.

Lekkit:
Initially focused on McGarnacle but switched after the Doctor claim. Didn't really see much else to go on. Leaning town.

Dylan32:
Called for Jake to claim. Other than that, has seemed pretty sensible and moderated. Leaning town.

PingPongSam:
I haven't had a chance to read through all the posts. One thing I found interesting is that Eevee was left off his read list. PPS, what are your thoughts on Eevee?

Running out of time before work so I'm going to have to cut this short. I'll try to finish it by tonight, starting with my read of PPS.

PPE: 1

952
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 2)
« on: November 28, 2016, 09:41:04 am »
I don't remember seeing IDPTG say anything about VLA.  Unless he did, I feel like if he doesn't show back up tomorrow we should prod.  If he has just been lurking instead of busy, I will probably vote for him.

I didn't, but I should have in retrospect. I didn't expect to be so busy with Thanksgiving stuff.

Reread Lekkit.

Is there a way to do this other than set the page to "All" and ctrl+F my way through the thread? Because it's getting kind of annoying (I'll keep doing it if it's the only way).

PPE: 1

953
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 2)
« on: November 23, 2016, 04:38:12 pm »
Sorry for being inactive; I've got a lot of Thanksgiving stuff going on in the next few days and I'll try to post when I can.

954
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia
« on: November 23, 2016, 11:42:37 am »
/in

955
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 22, 2016, 10:18:49 pm »
If Jake would've claimed his actual role he'd still be alive
Didn't he?

956
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 19, 2016, 09:34:54 pm »
1. It's not like playing scum is some art you have to master to perfection.
2. I know that your a good enough player to see that that is a scum drop so why are you defending him unless your one of his partners
3. I'm calling a RR and McG scum team
4. I got ripped for saying things like that in Mafia 87 where I was scum and you did some of the ripping RR so don't pretend you don't see how that isn't scummy

Assuming that was in response to me, right now, I think Jake and McGarnacle are both scum. I also think Jake is the better lynch tonight, mainly because I'm not convinced that his Cop claim is real.

PPE: 1
I'm pretty sure that was in response to me, but I'm not sure

Oh. Oops.

957
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 19, 2016, 09:27:23 pm »
1. It's not like playing scum is some art you have to master to perfection.
2. I know that your a good enough player to see that that is a scum drop so why are you defending him unless your one of his partners
3. I'm calling a RR and McG scum team
4. I got ripped for saying things like that in Mafia 87 where I was scum and you did some of the ripping RR so don't pretend you don't see how that isn't scummy

Assuming that was in response to me, right now, I think Jake and McGarnacle are both scum. I also think Jake is the better lynch tonight, mainly because I'm not convinced that his Cop claim is real.

PPE: 1

958
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 19, 2016, 07:52:38 pm »
McGeneral thought scum knew who all the town PRs are. That's a town slip

Yes, but it's so newbie-town that it can't be real, can it? He's got two or three games under his belt now at least, hasn't he?
Two town games according to his sig. And I agree, this cannot be real.

I assure you it is. But setups, etc. still confuse me. Plus I've never been scum, so I don't know how that part works.
Wow that was a massive no McG can we lynch him already.
As scummy as McGarnacle is sounding, this sounds worse.

959
Tournaments and Events / Re: Mono-Set Tournament
« on: November 18, 2016, 02:58:52 pm »
/in

960
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 18, 2016, 01:12:24 pm »
If I get 5 votes on me I'll just vote myself and you people can chose to hammer me or not. My scum reads are McG, Calm, Robz and Lek

Last I heard (I've been doing some reading), self-voting is a bad idea as town and a scum tactic used to deny information. So yeah, still voting Jake.

PPE: 1 (do I have to add this if there was a post in front of mine that didn't affect what I wrote?)

961
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 18, 2016, 12:53:18 pm »
I think Jake is lying about being the Cop. As PPS said, scum knows the alignments of players so Jake can fake being the Cop by giving accurate reads. He could confirm that a player who looks town is indeed town or bus one of his teammates to gain the trust of the town. Should we lynch someone else and Jake gets night-killed tonight, we get the flip and find out if he really was the Cop. If we lynch someone else and Jake doesn't die tonight, we don't know if that's because he's scum or there's a Doctor that's keeping him alive. I doubt anyone would claim to be the Doctor, so there would be uncertainty about that for a while. Given that we don't yet know if there's a Doctor in the game, if there is a Cop in the game and said Cop were to counterclaim, there's a very good chance that the real Cop dies.

What about McG he's ethier scum or  vt who's playing really badly so the risk is not great in lynching him

The crux of this argument is the exact same one that's being used to discuss whether we should lynch Jake. I think Jake is still feeling threatened and this is him grasping at straws in an attempt to stay alive.

Interesting. McGladwrap says he is consistent with his meta but you think it is a ruse for no other reason than to be a ruse. I think Jake is scum because it fits his scum meta to behave this way but I guess that's just a ruse too? I might actually buy that because it's exactly how I play.

I'm not buying that this is a ruse by Jake.

vote: Jake

PPE: 4

962
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 18, 2016, 11:55:09 am »
Lynching jake here is just poor play.

Can you run some numbers the inference thing I mentioned last night? I just have too much work right now, and I'm pretty sure I've seen you preaching Bayesianism somewhere else on f.ds.
Sure thing.

According to RRs statement about Jake claiming cop and the general easiness of generating good cop results as scum (downside is obviously that you cannot explain to be not killed) I estimate that scum!Jake would claim cop with a probability of 30%. If it would be later in the game I would put it lower but it is quite unlikely that scum has spoken about fake claims on D1.
--> P(cop-claim|scum) = 0.3 (Probability of a cop-claim occurring giving Jake being scum)

Next we have to look into the probability of him claiming cop as town. If we assume there is one cop with a probability of 80% and that cop!Jake would claim cop with certainty, the probability of cop-claim!town is equal to 0.8/12 = 1/15
--> P(cop-claim|town) = 1/15

If we assume those numbers, the cop-claim is evidence in favor of Jake being scum. The likelihood ratio is equal to 4.5:1, combining that with our prior of (3?:9), the posterior probability of Jake being town has risen to 13:9 = 0.59 = 59%

--> P(scum) = 0.59
--> P(town) = P(cop) 0.41

But the probability of him being scum isn't that relevant here. While he should be our top scum read because of his claim, the expected utility of lynching him today is still negative.
As cop he is quite likely to die anyways, as scum he probably won't do that much harm when he lives a bit longer. So, don't lynch Jake today!

Now I want to vote for Calamitas for terrible, terrible made up numbers. You write: "I estimate that scum!Jake would claim cop with a probability of 30%. If it would be later in the game I would put it lower but it is quite unlikely that scum has spoken about fake claims on D1."

It is NOT unlikely that scum has spoken about fake claims on Day 1, unless the scum team is incompetent. When I'm scum, we always discuss those things Night 0. Your "estimate" here is attempting to assign a number value to a completely random conjecture. You seem to not get that there is NO DOWN SIDE for scum to claim cop when lynch is certain, as it was with Jake. I don't know why you think Jake would do something that there's no reason not to do, only 30% of the time.
First, there is a huge amount of potential other fakeclaims. Secondly, you cannot explain survival as claimed cop. But the result is still qualitatively correct which is the only thing that matters here. Using 0.6 as P(cop-claim!scum) changes P(scum) to ~.75. Even in that case, the expected utility of not lynching him is greater than the expected utility of lynching him today.

So basically...the probability says he's scum, but let's not lynch him?

963
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 17, 2016, 03:32:19 am »
But really, I'm going to vote: Calamitas.  Mainly for the combination of previously lurking some and demanding Jake reveal flavor name.
The demand does seem strange. I could see it being pro-town, but I'm inclined to see it as scum or third faction.

964
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 16, 2016, 08:18:30 pm »

965
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 15, 2016, 06:15:45 pm »
I don't particularly think Jake's scum, but he's a decent D1 lynch and putting pressure on Jake can sometimes yield some stuff.
Can you explain this to me? Why would a non-scum be a good lynch?

966
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 15, 2016, 11:29:04 am »
Before I say something, I should ask: What are the rules about referencing other specific games? Are finished games ok, while in progress ones are obviously off limits? Or should that just not happen in general?
I had a similar question and I checked with LaLight on this one before posting.

Calamitas is looking scummy to me. We've gotten three posts, two saying he'll catch up later and one agreeing with a read without saying anything new. However, Calamitas hasn't been idle; this game started on the 13th and since then he's been posting to f.ds in general, just not this game. Lurking that hard when we're all focused on Jake seems like a great way to avoid notice and make it to D2.

vote: Calamitas

PPE: 1

967
Dominion League / Re: Season 18 - Results
« on: November 15, 2016, 12:33:26 am »
E1:

idontplaythisgame 4 - 2 TerrorVan

968
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 14, 2016, 05:16:59 pm »
I'm inclined to agree with the sentiment that Jake's posts haven't had much merit to them; it seems like a lot of "grammar" and not much material. After seeing all of the vote changes coming out of PPS, I can't decide if I think it's a town move trying to get a reaction out of scum or a scum move trying to see who will join in and mislynch someone D1. At any rate,
unvote

969
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 13, 2016, 07:15:55 pm »
Wow. I ask for clarification and now I'm scum? I told you, I've never played. The closest I've ever come to this type of game is IRL Bang! where round one options are much clearer.

vote: pingpongsam

And my pronouns are he/him/his

970
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 13, 2016, 05:26:16 pm »
IDontPlayThisGame is good at Dominion but that's all I know
Aww, thanks

Is this anyone's first game?
Yep, my first game

Anyone have any setup ideas? Or is setup talk deemed a bad way to kick things off these days?

Ooh, I love set-up stuff! But there's virtually nothing to go on here, so I have no cunning ideas yet :-(

Also, Hi! I don't think I've come across you or Lekkit before, but you're both vets, right?

And IDontPlayThisGame, I don't think I know anything about you at all...

Well you know he doesn't play this game

Not necessarily... it's a Dominion forum, so "this game" may well refer to Dominion.
(I barely play Dominion myself, so it's kind of believable...)

It refers to Dominion. Clearly, I don't play Dominion. There's a bug that says I've played over 500 games, it's pretty weird. I've been told (by our lovely host, LaLight) that I should change my name when Dominion 2017 is out.

Getting back to the topic at hand, I'm not really sure how to go about this. I guess we just talk and try to get to know each other?

971
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Day 1)
« on: November 13, 2016, 01:27:34 pm »
I'm really excited for this; it should be fun.

Anyone have any setup ideas? Or is setup talk deemed a bad way to kick things off these days?

I'm new here. What do you mean by setup ideas?

972
Dominion League / Re: Season 18 - Results
« on: November 09, 2016, 10:23:50 am »
E1:

idontplaythisgame 5.5 - .5 makqvist

973
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M89: Best Dominion Card Mafia (Sign-ups opened!)
« on: November 05, 2016, 11:42:43 am »
/in

#fim

974
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Civility Pledge
« on: November 02, 2016, 01:36:27 pm »
/pledge

975
/in please

Edit: didn't see that the entrants list was being updated

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