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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 02, 2021, 05:34:18 pm »
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 02, 2021, 05:24:08 pm »My browser is displaying that last vote count as being at 3:48:29 pm, Swowl says the game ends at 5:53pm Forum time and says that's in just over an hour. Is Forum Time actually 4:48 at the time of that post?
I see 4:48 when I read it. I think the deadline is in about half an hour.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 02, 2021, 04:14:23 pm »Ok, I really don't like the shift towards exiling Space here by EFHW and joth. I mean, if it's not Didds-EFHW, that is the only other pairing that makes sense to me to begin with, but this shift definitely seems like something scum would try to pull mere hours before the deadline hoping to get me or Didds to hop on with them.
I don't think it's too bad from Joth, because I was specifically hoping he'd come in with some analysis I hadn't seen, and he did that, so I can't complain. EFHW taking it up too seems scummier, but at the same time, Joth's case was mostly on her, with me in the "if it's not EFHW it's them" spot, so it's also sensible for her to take that to its logical conclusion.
My worry with scum!EFHW is just that I think everyone other than EFHW has expressed a happy willingness to vote there, which gives me pause.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 02, 2021, 03:51:44 pm »
Here's where I'm at regarding possible pairings and possible game-states:
We had RB, Tracker, Bodyguard and Vig. This means scum took at least two roles, one of which was JOAT, which mcmc got.
I think there's a decent chance they recruited the traitor, but something like daychat is also quite possible, and could also motivate the last remaining scum to want to recruit the traitor rather than just leave them be.
Situations where scum recruited the traitor N0, anddecided to no-kill (or just forgot to kill) on N4:
Dylan-Didds: possible.
Dylan-EFHW: what was going on with EFHW's weird voting alongside mcmc?
Dylan-Joth: what was mcmc doing building a D1 case on Joth like that?
Didds-EFHW: what was going on with EFHW's weird voting alongside mcmc?
Didds-Joth: what was mcmc doing building a D1 case on Joth like that?
EFHW-Joth: GG.. all the D1 voting threw me way off, and the extra stuff Joth has been posting was creative thinking as scum. This one seems unlikely enough that I'm happy just to discount it, unless anyone can put forward a good explanation for it all.
Now going pairwise where one person is the traitor.
Dylan with traitor!Didds: possible.
Didds with traitor!Dylan: possible.
Dylan with traitor!EFHW: possible.
EFHW with traitor!Dylan: less likely.
Dylan with traitor!Joth: possible.
Joth with traitor!Dylan: less likely.
Didds with traitor!EFHW: possible
EFHW with traitor!Didds: much less likely.
Didds with traitor!Joth: possible.
Joth with traitor!Didds: less likely.
EFHW with traitor!Joth: less likely.
Joth with traitor!EFHW: much less likely.
I feel like the reads today have made me feel like EFHW and Didds don't work as well as a scum pairing, but a lot of the rest hasn't changed since the previous game-day, which is annoying.
PPE: 3
We had RB, Tracker, Bodyguard and Vig. This means scum took at least two roles, one of which was JOAT, which mcmc got.
I think there's a decent chance they recruited the traitor, but something like daychat is also quite possible, and could also motivate the last remaining scum to want to recruit the traitor rather than just leave them be.
Situations where scum recruited the traitor N0, anddecided to no-kill (or just forgot to kill) on N4:
Dylan-Didds: possible.
Dylan-EFHW: what was going on with EFHW's weird voting alongside mcmc?
Dylan-Joth: what was mcmc doing building a D1 case on Joth like that?
Didds-EFHW: what was going on with EFHW's weird voting alongside mcmc?
Didds-Joth: what was mcmc doing building a D1 case on Joth like that?
EFHW-Joth: GG.. all the D1 voting threw me way off, and the extra stuff Joth has been posting was creative thinking as scum. This one seems unlikely enough that I'm happy just to discount it, unless anyone can put forward a good explanation for it all.
Now going pairwise where one person is the traitor.
Dylan with traitor!Didds: possible.
Didds with traitor!Dylan: possible.
Dylan with traitor!EFHW: possible.
EFHW with traitor!Dylan: less likely.
Dylan with traitor!Joth: possible.
Joth with traitor!Dylan: less likely.
Didds with traitor!EFHW: possible
EFHW with traitor!Didds: much less likely.
Didds with traitor!Joth: possible.
Joth with traitor!Didds: less likely.
EFHW with traitor!Joth: less likely.
Joth with traitor!EFHW: much less likely.
I feel like the reads today have made me feel like EFHW and Didds don't work as well as a scum pairing, but a lot of the rest hasn't changed since the previous game-day, which is annoying.
PPE: 3
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 02, 2021, 03:42:04 pm »Sorry, at best they tell us that Space is not mcmc's non-traitor partner.
Because after mcmc was killed and before scum recruited the traitor (assuming that's the reason for the no-kill night), only one scum, the non-traitor, could do the kill.
Are you saying that you're entertaining the possibility that traitor!me, who would have known the identity of my two scum-buddies, deliberated outed mcmc in on D1 by pushing a valid scum-case on him? And then tried not to get our newbie town PR run out of town?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 2)
« on: April 01, 2021, 07:20:40 pm »I can verify that EFHW is similarly distracted. Dylan and Space, too. I have been trying not to call them out too much because I know we are all juggling a bit right now.
Work and game and game... the something that is suffering is my attention in this one. Plus there was a ton of set-up talk that is just not my jam.
Yes, very much this on the juggling front. And set-up talk is something I enjoy, so I've been able to dip in a bit there, but not a lot. Too much of the rest of the content seems just to be pairs of people disagreeing over pretty minor things that I haven't felt engaged enough with work out what I think.
Here's some fluffy fluff for you... I am making a chickpea curry right now and my house smells amazing. Y'all should all come over for dinner. Also, this the LAST WEEKEND that you will be able to get Cadbury mini eggs for a whole year. They are my favorite and I am wistful about the absence in advance.
You could presumably just buy up a year's supply, though, right? I discovered back in 2020 that I really love hot cross buns. I think it was something to do with having found a nice vegan butter substitute and finally being able to have buttered toasted hot cross buns for the first time in a couple of decades. Now they're about to vanish from the shops again, and they're only good for a couple of days after purchasing, so I can't even stock up :-P
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 01, 2021, 07:06:28 pm »Everyone, but especially Space, do you know what your schedule looks like tomorrow? I don't want to vote until we've heard all that we/you need to hear in case of the quickhammer. Deadline is at like ten to six.
It's a public holiday here, so I'm free! Actually, I'm so burnt out that I'm using some leave and extending the long weekend Easter holiday into a full week off next week. As for tomorrow night, I probably have a social video call for an hour or two from about 2.30pm forum time (our clocks changed last weekend so I'm 5 hours ahead of forum time again), but I won't let that stop me being active in the run-up to deadline time.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« on: April 01, 2021, 06:55:14 pm »I tracked Didds N1 and Space N2. Got a non-incriminating result each time.
If you have time you can go check. People already pointed out that I moved away from my "scum off-wagon" theory and scumread on Space today. This is why.
Given we're in a situation where we're strongly considering that the traitor wasn't recruited N0, then faust's results really need to be part of the conversation.
I also think it would be good to check the resolution order explicitly:
If mcmc had carried out the NK night 1, and was also the vig target, would his kill have gone through?
If the vig had shot at someone N2, and also been the target of the scum NK, would the vig's target have died, assuming that target had no extra forms of protection like being bulletproof?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 01, 2021, 06:44:56 pm »
I find it interesting that everyone except EFHW is putting forward proposed pairs where EFHW is scum now. It almost makes me not want to exile her, which isn't a good place to be this close to deadline. However, saying she's a possible pair with someone is quite different from laying down a vote, and also at this late stage in the game, probably some bussing is necessary for the final scum to stay hidden even if EFHW is one of them.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 01, 2021, 06:36:50 pm »If Dylan can provide any instance of me bussing as scum beyond that game, I will be astounded.
I probably can't, just because I'm not going back and looking at your scum games to find out. I don't think this is the kind of play that anyone really has a meta for, it's just something that plays out naturally. Like I don't think scum!you said, "Hey, I'm going to [insert the narrative I laid out above here]." I think it's more likely you simply made an early decision to include EFHW in your scum reads but didn't plan on hard busing the whole game, and the game flow largely left you alone and let you maintain that stance without any real support or pushback on you until now.
Huh, I disagree about not having meta for bus-related play, because I think more risk-averse people (which I'd class Didds as, since she feels like me in that respect) are less likely to be comfortable with it, and less likely than not-risk-averse players to do it aggressively.
How much of the distrust of meta is just because you don't have time to invest in looking for the old scum games, and how much is genuinely that you just disagree on whether it's something people do quite habitually? Do you believe my conclusion that Joth is really unlikely to be non-traitor scum based on the fact that mcmc voted for him hard in D1, in spite of the fact that in all the other recent scum-games I could find, mcmc really never seemed to bus?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: April 01, 2021, 06:19:11 pm »Sorry, ignore that last part I said it wrong.
I guess it IS possible that MiX just chose not to shoot. I got confused. There was only one night without a nightkill.
Were you assuming here that if MiX had shot someone, then we'd have seen two deaths from N2, and therefor that the lack of second kill means you thought that he targeted a bullet-proof traitor? I was assuming that being killed stopped him from taking a shot (i.e. that scum kills come above town kills in resolution order), but I haven't actually checked that with a mod question.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: March 31, 2021, 08:34:07 pm »You know what, I'm changing my tune. The 3 of us are going in circles and space and joth are just hanging back. . I suggest we vote for joth. I'm in the process of ISOing him and will report back when I finish
I think I made it clear that I'd like to hear Joth's input, so yes, I'm hanging back a little (other than correcting things I think are factually wrong in the other conversation) because I think Joth was dropping in pieces of novel content in some of the recent stuff he said, and I'd like to hear more of that to help balance out my own observations.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: March 31, 2021, 01:23:00 pm »< snip >Didds has been pushing EFHW hard all game. Can you show me any previous games in which scum!Didds does that sort of a tunnel on a scum-buddy? Or are you not saying here that you think the most likely pairing is Didds-EFHW?
< snip >
Didds has listed EFHW as her biggest scumread all game, but there has been no meaningful momentum towards that exile, despite quite a few people (including now dead townies) expressing either willingness to vote or suspicion of EFHW for most of the game. I need to go back and read to confirm the next bit, but I suspect the moments Didds mentioned the EFHW scumread were either moments where something else was hogging the thread's attention or they were done in such a way that didn't continue to apply pressure at any given moment (i.e. "my biggest scumread is EFHW, but since there's no interest in a wagon, I'll vote XYZ instead").
Didds has been consistently voting EFHW for more than half the game, I think. Looking at my current voting digest (which goes up to EoD3), she was voting for EFHW for the following game chunks:
#108-#307 -- Her first vote of the game, up until she moved to MiX, which was her EoD wagon.
#445-#632 -- Her first vote of D2, up to where she moved to gkrieg, which was her EoD wagon.
#857-#910 -- Her second vote of D3 (she briefly voted faust first), up till the D3 hammer.
I don't think this particularly supports the suggestion that she was only pretending to have a scum read while voting XYZ instead for all that time.
That kind of read, while it clearly is taking a stand on the person, does little for actually moving town to vote for your scumread. For comparison, she and I have been pretty constantly putting pressure on each other today.
To me, the real pressure in a case comes from a vote, but the fact neither of you is currently voting is absolutely fine with me, given we can't afford a mixile just now, and scum can theoretically quickhammer if town missteps. However, I do think that Didds has been voting for EFHW consistently enough that she could have expected to get herself into hot water if a townie or two had chosen to follow scum!her onto EFHW, so that amount of voting she's done seems to be a bit of a risk. Side-thought: if EFHW is townie, regardless of Didd's alignment, would we expect more people to be willing to vote there? Other than MiX in D1 and gkrieg in D2, not many people have been willing to join that wagon.
Also, you quoted my request to you that you show me previous games where scum!Didds does that sort of a tunnel on a scum-buddy, but you didn't follow through with that evidence-gathering side of things. Didds herself volunteered that she was a bussing traitor in a game with EFHW, though! Can someone provide pointers?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 2)
« on: March 30, 2021, 06:32:48 pm »They know I'm (probably) a Cylon. Take me out before that can happen, man.
You're assuming that while you're alive, you might suddenly switch from being human-aligned to being cylon-aligned, right? Have you checked to see whether your wincon (or legacy points allocation for this game, at least) can change after the point at which you're brigged?
I'm not saying I think that's a super-likely mechanism for faust to be using, but it does feel odd that you're quite focused on being brigged to prevent yourself from turning, when pushing to be brigged as a human-aligned player seems anti-town in every other possible way, and yet since this game persists after brigging, there must be some chance that some events after a player's brigging might be able to affect their wincon, points allocation or character story overall.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: March 30, 2021, 06:24:14 pm »I'm really sorry I haven't been able to give this game the attention it deserves this game day. It's just been a busy week and I don't have it in me to spend my free time re-reading and meticulously case-making. Even though I know that I need to do that now.
Are you saying here that you're going to get round to finding that attention, or that you're feeling like it's a struggle? (Or both!?). I'm finding that the things you're throwing out there are usefully different from what others are saying, so I definitely feel like we'd benefit from more joth-thoughts if you can find the time :-)
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: March 30, 2021, 06:22:03 pm »
Following up this comment from Dylan to Didds:
Pretty sure I started my "I think Dylan is scummy" re-read more than a game day ago.. I can see that you make logical and agreeable posts, but there's nothing that screams town. I have a feeling you were something like third behind faust and MiX in my early-D2 scumreads, because of your support for the knee-jerk mathdude quixile. So "pretty strongly townread" is probably not accurate, at least from my corner of the game.
Ah, I disagree with that. There's no false painting of a scum narrative, there's a strong lack of painting of a non-scum narrative between you and any possible scum-partner, and I'm having to compare that with pairs for which there is evidence against them as a scum pairing, then work out which single person I think is most likely to be scum. The only thing I'm cautioning myself against is assuming that the lack of evidence against you-Didds is independent of the lack of evidence for you-Joth and/or you-EFHW. That's definitely not the case, because the lack of evidence stems from your absence in all three cases.
My argument is that your push on me after I had been pretty strongly townread by I believe most people through the game once Space made that comment yesterday, combined with scum killing Ash instead of obv!town Space is a very strong narrative for scum!you.
Pretty sure I started my "I think Dylan is scummy" re-read more than a game day ago.. I can see that you make logical and agreeable posts, but there's nothing that screams town. I have a feeling you were something like third behind faust and MiX in my early-D2 scumreads, because of your support for the knee-jerk mathdude quixile. So "pretty strongly townread" is probably not accurate, at least from my corner of the game.
My point is that Space's intuition there is correct. The fact I have fewer voting interactions DOES falsely point to a scum narrative for me, because it wasn't an intentional play like the paragraph before suggests it might have been. It was simply that I was busy, which should be NAI for anyone.
Ah, I disagree with that. There's no false painting of a scum narrative, there's a strong lack of painting of a non-scum narrative between you and any possible scum-partner, and I'm having to compare that with pairs for which there is evidence against them as a scum pairing, then work out which single person I think is most likely to be scum. The only thing I'm cautioning myself against is assuming that the lack of evidence against you-Didds is independent of the lack of evidence for you-Joth and/or you-EFHW. That's definitely not the case, because the lack of evidence stems from your absence in all three cases.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: March 30, 2021, 05:30:42 pm »Also, Space, to your post, there are two big things I believe you are forgetting in your analysis that I think is why you are thinking I'm so likely to be scum. One is that I had a fairly long VLA through the middle of the game. Like a good chunk of D3 (I think it was D3, but time is weird). The second is that even before that VLA, during D2, I had roughly a week where I had that big work thing that pretty heavily restricted my activity. I didn't throw votes around like I have in past games because I just wasn't around enough to do that.
My comment was that you could believably be scum with multiple people because of your low levels of interaction. I was not forgetting that you reported a genuine reason for being away. I'm not saying you're more scummy-looking because you barely voted, I'm saying that you've left town with fewer chances to see anything not-scummy-looking in your voting history because there's so little voting history to look at.
I absolutely think Didds caught on to your post yesterday, and that's why ash was the target instead of you. If Didds could get you to vote me as your common denominator in your likely pairings, EFHW would be set up to hammer pretty easily without having to actually push very hard in any direction at all in case things turned against either of them. I mean look, up until the very end of yesterday, Didds was so dead set on EFHW being their strongest (only) scumread, but they never pushed in a way that actually moved any real momentum towards exiling EFHW.
Didds has been pushing EFHW hard all game. Can you show me any previous games in which scum!Didds does that sort of a tunnel on a scum-buddy? Or are you not saying here that you think the most likely pairing is Didds-EFHW?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 2)
« on: March 29, 2021, 08:26:48 pm »
Still here! Apologies for being probably-proddable by now.
Did anyone who's commenting on Ash's situation already point out that there's a whole continuum (ish) of other incentives that aren't as "bastard" as a jester role, but that are mediated by the legacy game points? Like, maybe Ash can have extra points if he arranges a mixile of himself at some point, or something like that. I think there must be a way to phrase it that doesn't actually amount to playing against his faction. I'm not sure how such a game mechanic would fit with being the Chief, but I also think it's not outside the realms of possibility that faust could concoct something that way.
Did anyone who's commenting on Ash's situation already point out that there's a whole continuum (ish) of other incentives that aren't as "bastard" as a jester role, but that are mediated by the legacy game points? Like, maybe Ash can have extra points if he arranges a mixile of himself at some point, or something like that. I think there must be a way to phrase it that doesn't actually amount to playing against his faction. I'm not sure how such a game mechanic would fit with being the Chief, but I also think it's not outside the realms of possibility that faust could concoct something that way.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: March 29, 2021, 07:07:42 pm »
I have a bit of catching-up to do. Here's a quote from Dylan in response to Didds:
I have to disagree here. Didds made more active votes and comments during the game, and while it's not as many as EFHW or Joth, her preferences were clear at the time. Let's just sum up the five of us:
D1 Didds: voted EFHW a long time, then shifted to MiX.
D1 Dylan: mathdude. Only one vote placed.
D1 EFHW: Robz, Ash, Space, mathdude, Joth, mathdude.
D1 Joth: Didds, Dylan, gkrieg, MiX, Ash, unvote, Robz, mathdude.
D1 Space: mcmc, MiX
D2 Didds: EFHW, gkrieg
D2 Dylan: never votes
D2 EFHW: (mostly not voting, then) Ash, gkrieg
D2 Joth: Ash, joth
D2 Space: MiX, faust
D3 Didds: EFHW, faust
D3 Dylan: (mostly not voting, then) just faust
D3 EFHW: Dylan (very briefly) then Didds.
D3 Joth: only Ash
D3 Space: only faust
Dylan is definitely the outlier here in terms of usable interactions. On the one hand, it's a clever thing to do as scum if you know you're in a game where people are going to look back on wagons, but on the other hand, it makes him look like he could be scum with anyone because he's been so lurky. I feel right now that he's definitely the common denominator, but I also worry that Didds picked up on that from my posts in the previous game day about how Dylan-EFHW or Dylan-Didds felt like my top two picks, so if EFHW-Didds is the team, then pushing Dylan is definitely the way to win here.
And it is probable that this method of looking at things overcounts how likely Dylan is to be scum just because there's so little useful wagon interaction that you can't look at a particular vote history and say "oh, that seems a bit improbable if those two are scum together", which is basically how I think EFHW-Joth isn't a possibility.
You and I have nearly identical voting patterns in terms of both number of exiles on/off AND in terms of "partner" we could have been on wagon with, and this makes:
I have to disagree here. Didds made more active votes and comments during the game, and while it's not as many as EFHW or Joth, her preferences were clear at the time. Let's just sum up the five of us:
D1 Didds: voted EFHW a long time, then shifted to MiX.
D1 Dylan: mathdude. Only one vote placed.
D1 EFHW: Robz, Ash, Space, mathdude, Joth, mathdude.
D1 Joth: Didds, Dylan, gkrieg, MiX, Ash, unvote, Robz, mathdude.
D1 Space: mcmc, MiX
D2 Didds: EFHW, gkrieg
D2 Dylan: never votes
D2 EFHW: (mostly not voting, then) Ash, gkrieg
D2 Joth: Ash, joth
D2 Space: MiX, faust
D3 Didds: EFHW, faust
D3 Dylan: (mostly not voting, then) just faust
D3 EFHW: Dylan (very briefly) then Didds.
D3 Joth: only Ash
D3 Space: only faust
Dylan is definitely the outlier here in terms of usable interactions. On the one hand, it's a clever thing to do as scum if you know you're in a game where people are going to look back on wagons, but on the other hand, it makes him look like he could be scum with anyone because he's been so lurky. I feel right now that he's definitely the common denominator, but I also worry that Didds picked up on that from my posts in the previous game day about how Dylan-EFHW or Dylan-Didds felt like my top two picks, so if EFHW-Didds is the team, then pushing Dylan is definitely the way to win here.
And it is probable that this method of looking at things overcounts how likely Dylan is to be scum just because there's so little useful wagon interaction that you can't look at a particular vote history and say "oh, that seems a bit improbable if those two are scum together", which is basically how I think EFHW-Joth isn't a possibility.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 2)
« on: March 27, 2021, 09:16:41 pm »
Just checking in.. I haven't had time to go through this game in much more detail yet.
I'm fine with Ash doing the test if he's keen to volunteer. It would be useful to understand a bit more about how reliable its results are.
I'm fine with Ash doing the test if he's keen to volunteer. It would be useful to understand a bit more about how reliable its results are.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« on: March 27, 2021, 07:13:45 pm »
Just checking in! I like that suddenly everybody else is saying things, after how dead it was at the end of the game day. I support Didds's suggestion of everyone giving a town-case on themselves. However, I also think that with so few players left, it's worth each person thinking through all the likely scum pairings and seeing what does and doesn't seem to fit everyone's play as they've observed it.
For example, I think Joth-EFHW is still a really unlikely pairing, because either full-scum!mcmc decided to vote full-scum!Joth for most of D1 in spite of the fact he doesn't seem to bus at all in the most recent scum games of his that I could find, or it means that somehow full-scum!mcmc and full-scum!EFHW decided to be the only two people pushing a wagon on scum!Joth (either full-scum or traitor) for 80 votes, before EFHW moved back to the Mathdude wagon. A possible narrative for that could almost b that they wanted to build an alternative wagon that wasn't EFHW, since she was also at 2 votes at that point, and maybe they'd rather have a non-scum be the main alternative to the newbie. But if that's the case, then why not both just pick one of the wagons that already had a townie on it to support instead?
Anyway, my paragraph above doesn't make Joth-EFHW a total impossibility, but it's a weird thing that would need to be explained by anyone trying to say that Joth-EFHW is their top pick for scums. I'd quite like to tabulate the "weird things" for each possible pairing, rather than just considering individual players now, because even if we can only exile people one at a time, the actual reality is that there is a particular set of two who're working together, and at least one of those two was aware of scum!mcmc from the start.
For example, I think Joth-EFHW is still a really unlikely pairing, because either full-scum!mcmc decided to vote full-scum!Joth for most of D1 in spite of the fact he doesn't seem to bus at all in the most recent scum games of his that I could find, or it means that somehow full-scum!mcmc and full-scum!EFHW decided to be the only two people pushing a wagon on scum!Joth (either full-scum or traitor) for 80 votes, before EFHW moved back to the Mathdude wagon. A possible narrative for that could almost b that they wanted to build an alternative wagon that wasn't EFHW, since she was also at 2 votes at that point, and maybe they'd rather have a non-scum be the main alternative to the newbie. But if that's the case, then why not both just pick one of the wagons that already had a townie on it to support instead?
Anyway, my paragraph above doesn't make Joth-EFHW a total impossibility, but it's a weird thing that would need to be explained by anyone trying to say that Joth-EFHW is their top pick for scums. I'd quite like to tabulate the "weird things" for each possible pairing, rather than just considering individual players now, because even if we can only exile people one at a time, the actual reality is that there is a particular set of two who're working together, and at least one of those two was aware of scum!mcmc from the start.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 4!
« on: March 24, 2021, 05:47:17 pm »
Dylan re-read, with a strong "what if he's scum" sort of bias:
Early game vote on Mathdude, and a bunch of engagement with the concept of RVS.
Then goes on the post a bunch about stuff like the Space Gambit. It isn't too relevant to the game at that point, and isn't going to help with alignment, but on the flipside, it's getting conversation moving early on, so only really a source of scumpoints in a retrospective re-read where I'm looking for reasons Dylan might not be townie.
Ash made a post at #129 townreading MiX, Mathdude and gkrieg (and voting Joth). Dylan picked up on that in the very next post because gkrieg hadn't really said anything to warrant a change in opinion on his alignment. That's kind of a scum-hunting post, but also we now know that Ash's townreads were all good, so it's something scum would worry about. He did kind of back down at #145, after Ash gave a good response.
#146 now seems to be expressing suspicion on Joth. So now Dylan pivots from questioning Ash to joining him on putting pressure on Joth.
#152 Specific comments inviting MiX to put an EFHW case forward, which is interesting. I'm not sure whether to take it as a townie admission of lack of info, or a scummy "there's no case on EFHW" defensive case, or an alternatively-scummy challenge to MiX to build an EFHW case that scum can then utilise.
#178 Re-votes Mathdude, this time making it clear it's for a scumread rather than RVS. Though for vote count purposes, Dylan still remains the instigator of the wagon, since this was just a re-vote. However, it serves to get the thread talking about mathdude being scummy, especially because it looked like the third such vote in four posts. (For context, Mathdude had dropped a protest vote on me for low activity).
#196 Quite a long post engaging with MiX basically about why Mathdude is scummy, and it's scummy for MiX to suggest that voting there is scummy.
#219 Responding to my post at #218, which was trying to be a gentle reminder that being a newbie here is tough because there's a big learning curve around what the community sees as scummy vs what actually necessarily comes from a scum mindset. Dylan's response was basically that too many people are willing to defend Mathdude. This could just be a totally misguided town tunnel on a newbie, but if so, Dylan's being really blinkered by not even trying to absorb the defenses he's complaining that other people are putting forward.
#287 Keen to squash a possible Robz town-slip.
#289-#290 Lots of reasoning about Robz, with an undertone of worrying about what powers scum will have picked. It's too early for town to be really worrying about what's out there, but hard to say now whether his interest in scum powers is just idle curiosity or if it's because he's on the scummy side.
#365 Like MiX, Dylan claims to have jumped to a conclusion about how Mathdude must be fakeclaiming. We know MiX's was a lie, and that he didn't really think Mathdude was scum fake-claiming, but does Dylan actually believe it, or is he also lying to town in order to lock in the mixile?
#371 Hedgey defence of MiX, in encouragement of the Mathdude exile. No townpoints from me there.
#373 I'm very much not a fan of a post that starts "Wait a second" and then just piles more on the wagon instead of waiting even a fraction of a second...
#386 Weird post-hammer words to Mathdude about why he can't point to anything he did wrong, whereas before, Dylan was really pushing the "bad claim" line.
Day 2
#401: Happily jumps on the MiX wagon with me. I kind of give that townpoints, but not many.
#406: Says he originally thought Mathdude was claiming Vig, before following MiX's lead and reading traitor. We now know that MiX also read Vig initially, but deliberately didn't say so in-thread.
Quite a long absence, then a catch-up post at #555, which sounds really quite reasonable and non-scummy. After-note: I may have been buttered up by his accurate explanation to MiX of why he was just so un-followable this game.
Another long absence, then a small note to the thread at #702 saying he's busy. I can definitely sympathise.
#712 Unvotes MiX, and stays not voting until EoD2, which is disappointingly non-committal, but also probably better than a bad vote if he really didn't have the capacity to engage. Slight scumbells, especially since he was watching and commenting at #743 and #760, saying he was going off a gkrieg exile, but not making any move to offer an alternative by voting anywhere else. The hammer was at #768.
Day 3
#808 Biggish defense of why he stated D1 that he wanted to wait for what Mathdude said, but didn't unvote so that Mathdude wasn't poised at E-1. I think faust had a decent point.
Note: If EFHW's scum then #806 was a bus putting Dylan up to be the leading early-D3 wagon. However, EFHW then uses Dylan's post to say she's now townreading Dylan and scumreading faust. If they're a scum pairing then it's quite nice playing on EFHW's part because she's actively responding to content posted by faust in D3, quite possibly with no cooperation from Dylan if she was indeed the traitor.
#813 Says the risk of quickhammers seemed low in general, which implies that he actually considered it at the time, which just feels like a bit too much detail to give retrospectively.
#814: "I was thinking EFHW might be scum, but I'm not sure if scum!EFHW would have unvoted me right there like that." -- honestly with a decent scum-suspicion on the Dylan-EFHW pairing, this sounds like well-placed distancing, since of course scum!EFHW would want to make exactly the performance she made of unvoting Dylan for townreading him.
#848 another catching-up post. Oddly many mentions of EFHW, who at this point may still be an unrecruited traitor. Even if my traitor theory is off the mark, they could still both have been scum from the start, just with EFHW putting down particular weird votes with respect to mcmc.
#889 puts faust to E-1, which is something scum would want to do on a wagon that is being run up by town.
Day 4
#960 Comes back briefly about having been on vacation. It's true he said in-thread that he was making travel plans, but also I think it was quite easy to miss.
#961-#969 stream of catching-up posts. Picks up on my note about Didds being the only other off-Mathdude person left, with relation to whether scum really thought Mathdude was the traitor. Does a Didds re-read. I'll leave D6's alive townies to think through the wifom implications of that, given that I think I support Dylan as the D5 exile.
#985 Jumps onto the no-Exile wagon, which I think is clearly a bonus for scum.
Also #985, makes a possible scumslip in "but then I remembered that the traitor wasn't recruited N0".
#986 Immediately corrects the possible scumslip, with a plausible-sounding cover story, but it's still out there, and I think we really should consider that Dylan-EFHW is a decent possibility.
Early game vote on Mathdude, and a bunch of engagement with the concept of RVS.
Then goes on the post a bunch about stuff like the Space Gambit. It isn't too relevant to the game at that point, and isn't going to help with alignment, but on the flipside, it's getting conversation moving early on, so only really a source of scumpoints in a retrospective re-read where I'm looking for reasons Dylan might not be townie.
Ash made a post at #129 townreading MiX, Mathdude and gkrieg (and voting Joth). Dylan picked up on that in the very next post because gkrieg hadn't really said anything to warrant a change in opinion on his alignment. That's kind of a scum-hunting post, but also we now know that Ash's townreads were all good, so it's something scum would worry about. He did kind of back down at #145, after Ash gave a good response.
#146 now seems to be expressing suspicion on Joth. So now Dylan pivots from questioning Ash to joining him on putting pressure on Joth.
#152 Specific comments inviting MiX to put an EFHW case forward, which is interesting. I'm not sure whether to take it as a townie admission of lack of info, or a scummy "there's no case on EFHW" defensive case, or an alternatively-scummy challenge to MiX to build an EFHW case that scum can then utilise.
#178 Re-votes Mathdude, this time making it clear it's for a scumread rather than RVS. Though for vote count purposes, Dylan still remains the instigator of the wagon, since this was just a re-vote. However, it serves to get the thread talking about mathdude being scummy, especially because it looked like the third such vote in four posts. (For context, Mathdude had dropped a protest vote on me for low activity).
#196 Quite a long post engaging with MiX basically about why Mathdude is scummy, and it's scummy for MiX to suggest that voting there is scummy.
#219 Responding to my post at #218, which was trying to be a gentle reminder that being a newbie here is tough because there's a big learning curve around what the community sees as scummy vs what actually necessarily comes from a scum mindset. Dylan's response was basically that too many people are willing to defend Mathdude. This could just be a totally misguided town tunnel on a newbie, but if so, Dylan's being really blinkered by not even trying to absorb the defenses he's complaining that other people are putting forward.
#287 Keen to squash a possible Robz town-slip.
#289-#290 Lots of reasoning about Robz, with an undertone of worrying about what powers scum will have picked. It's too early for town to be really worrying about what's out there, but hard to say now whether his interest in scum powers is just idle curiosity or if it's because he's on the scummy side.
#365 Like MiX, Dylan claims to have jumped to a conclusion about how Mathdude must be fakeclaiming. We know MiX's was a lie, and that he didn't really think Mathdude was scum fake-claiming, but does Dylan actually believe it, or is he also lying to town in order to lock in the mixile?
#371 Hedgey defence of MiX, in encouragement of the Mathdude exile. No townpoints from me there.
#373 I'm very much not a fan of a post that starts "Wait a second" and then just piles more on the wagon instead of waiting even a fraction of a second...
#386 Weird post-hammer words to Mathdude about why he can't point to anything he did wrong, whereas before, Dylan was really pushing the "bad claim" line.
Day 2
#401: Happily jumps on the MiX wagon with me. I kind of give that townpoints, but not many.
#406: Says he originally thought Mathdude was claiming Vig, before following MiX's lead and reading traitor. We now know that MiX also read Vig initially, but deliberately didn't say so in-thread.
Quite a long absence, then a catch-up post at #555, which sounds really quite reasonable and non-scummy. After-note: I may have been buttered up by his accurate explanation to MiX of why he was just so un-followable this game.
Another long absence, then a small note to the thread at #702 saying he's busy. I can definitely sympathise.
#712 Unvotes MiX, and stays not voting until EoD2, which is disappointingly non-committal, but also probably better than a bad vote if he really didn't have the capacity to engage. Slight scumbells, especially since he was watching and commenting at #743 and #760, saying he was going off a gkrieg exile, but not making any move to offer an alternative by voting anywhere else. The hammer was at #768.
Day 3
#808 Biggish defense of why he stated D1 that he wanted to wait for what Mathdude said, but didn't unvote so that Mathdude wasn't poised at E-1. I think faust had a decent point.
Note: If EFHW's scum then #806 was a bus putting Dylan up to be the leading early-D3 wagon. However, EFHW then uses Dylan's post to say she's now townreading Dylan and scumreading faust. If they're a scum pairing then it's quite nice playing on EFHW's part because she's actively responding to content posted by faust in D3, quite possibly with no cooperation from Dylan if she was indeed the traitor.
#813 Says the risk of quickhammers seemed low in general, which implies that he actually considered it at the time, which just feels like a bit too much detail to give retrospectively.
#814: "I was thinking EFHW might be scum, but I'm not sure if scum!EFHW would have unvoted me right there like that." -- honestly with a decent scum-suspicion on the Dylan-EFHW pairing, this sounds like well-placed distancing, since of course scum!EFHW would want to make exactly the performance she made of unvoting Dylan for townreading him.
#848 another catching-up post. Oddly many mentions of EFHW, who at this point may still be an unrecruited traitor. Even if my traitor theory is off the mark, they could still both have been scum from the start, just with EFHW putting down particular weird votes with respect to mcmc.
#889 puts faust to E-1, which is something scum would want to do on a wagon that is being run up by town.
Day 4
#960 Comes back briefly about having been on vacation. It's true he said in-thread that he was making travel plans, but also I think it was quite easy to miss.
#961-#969 stream of catching-up posts. Picks up on my note about Didds being the only other off-Mathdude person left, with relation to whether scum really thought Mathdude was the traitor. Does a Didds re-read. I'll leave D6's alive townies to think through the wifom implications of that, given that I think I support Dylan as the D5 exile.
#985 Jumps onto the no-Exile wagon, which I think is clearly a bonus for scum.
Also #985, makes a possible scumslip in "but then I remembered that the traitor wasn't recruited N0".
#986 Immediately corrects the possible scumslip, with a plausible-sounding cover story, but it's still out there, and I think we really should consider that Dylan-EFHW is a decent possibility.
98
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 4!
« on: March 24, 2021, 05:27:51 pm »
Wow, we're pretty much all prodable now. I know people are waiting around for me to post, but it's been a busy couple of days, and my attention is split.
I'm a bit surprised that nobody else is saying anything at all. Surely not everyone else feels like they're safe from the NK? Anyway, I have from now till deadline free at least. Though I've only just remembered I'm still only 4 hours ahead and not 5, so it's actually quite close.
I'm a bit surprised that nobody else is saying anything at all. Surely not everyone else feels like they're safe from the NK? Anyway, I have from now till deadline free at least. Though I've only just remembered I'm still only 4 hours ahead and not 5, so it's actually quite close.
99
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 1)
« on: March 24, 2021, 05:22:17 pm »
Just out of curiosity, what other games can anyone remember where an alignment switch was offered either pre-game or as part of the game, as Awaclus tells us has just happened here?
100
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 1)
« on: March 24, 2021, 03:45:23 pm »For those not verse in the flavor, math's death hear mirrors an event in the series, where a character (different from the one that awaclus claimed) is revealed to be a cylon who was previously unaware that they were a cylon when their programming activates and they try to assassinate the president (math's character).
One of us is mis-remembering here, because I think Boomer shot the Admiral, not the President.
Is it possible faust set up a storyline to parallel that assassination attempt, where a junior "sleeper" on the civilian side tries to take out the civilian leader, rather than having a lower-ranking military person shoot the military leader? Given that Billy was written out of the show and replaced by Tory, who actually did turn out to be a Cylon, it might not be so impossible for Billy to have been written as a sleeper agent for this game.
Either way, we could look at Mathdude's killing as some kind of pre-programmed event that cylon-Awaclus was destined to enact at some point even if he elects to remains human-aligned, or alternatively it might just be a weird side-effect of the particular game configuration faust rolled for this current game in the campaign, and that Awaclus obtained independent from his role.
PPE not nearly as many as I'd expected to show up in the meantime!