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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« on: March 19, 2022, 09:15:41 pm »
I’m not sure what to make of Didds reaction.
7 players left in this game, and 3 scum. Time for me to organize my thoughts.
mathdude - I know I'm town. Many have me in their top 2 as scum. gkrieg who has been the main one town-reading me has been asked to re-read me, but is too busy IRL to do that.
infangthief - claimed double-voter, no counterclaim, but start-of-day posts seem to confirm a double-voter, so presumably confirmed IC (I say "presumably", but once he votes and it shows up in VC, then it is definitely confirmed).
gkrieg - has had 6 posts in the ~100 hours of D4 so far, and has responded to/about me and fang, stated an early-day willingness to vote for Didds or Jack, but lately posts have just said "I'm busy, I'll try and get to it" - also, was online about 30 minutes ago (as per his profile page), but didn't post anything.
EFHW - many people seem to be strongly town-reading her... can someone please tell me why? Also, 7 posts in D4 so far, but as per my previous post nothing in the last 40+ hours, even though she's been online this morning.
Swowl - again, people seem to be town-reading him... can someone tell me why? Is it just the try-hard of the VCA's lately? Because I know I've done similar as scum in the past - it's very easy to do as scum, as long as you can parse the info that everyone knows and the info only you know and keep the second hidden... and when asked "what did you learn from that" - a scummy response is "not nearly as much as I had hoped", which I have said similarly as scum in the past!
Galz/Jack - even with the sub, still basically sliding under the radar. The MO seems to be very similar to the previous time when Jack subbed in for a scum!Galz. The one main idea that I've heard is that "Galz can't be scum with mathdude" (repeated by at lease 2 people) - is this why people aren't interested in Jack? Or has he just been slipping under the radar still for others too?
Didds - the same way some people have kept coming back to "math must be scum"... I (and I think I've seen hints of it from others too) keep coming back to "Didds must be scum". And I'm starting to have more of a problem with this read, since I'm recently reading Didds' frustration ("why are people scum-reading me?" and "if I'm voted out, game's over") as being almost the same as my frustration.
I'm trying to imagine a way that Didds might be town. That would mean 3 of gkrieg, EFHW, Swowl, and Jack/Galz are scum. Could that be true? Maybe. I feel like it's more likely Didds with 2 of those. But if it is 3 of those 4, we don't need to sort out which 3 today. We need to figure out 1. Which is most likely? I'd say probably Jack/Galz?
So if it's 3 of those 4, Jack/Galz is probably the way to go. If it's Didds plus 2 of those 4, I think Jack/Galz is probably still 1 of the 2 (though I'm a little less confident). I think at this point, I'd vote Didds or Jack/Galz.
I'm glad fang is our IC.Why?
I have a deadline on Thursday, then a friend coming into town Friday. I will not be around too much.
Would go for Didds or Jack at this point. I'm glad fang is our IC.
Ok, with many people still putting me on top of their scum list, gkrieg why are you still not wanting to vote for me? Is there anything more than a D1 or D2 gut feel? Or did you just pick a read and stick with it all game for consistency?
I'm ready to vote gkrieg unless he has a valid reason to town-read me against the majority all game.
So I've read most of mathdude again, and I still think most likely scum.
But I also do not want to let Galzria slide by without his promised contribution. I recall a game I spectated recently in which Galzria kept promising stuff and leaving it later and later in the day, and he was scum, exiled day 1. This feels similar.
MiX, gkrieg… care to share the reason for your votes?
I said that MiX is either scum or lazy town, and then he proceeded to double down on the lazy town thing. I just don't see MiX doing this. He also has one of the highest post counts, so he is being active in the thread, just not actually doing any scum hunting. He did a wagon analysis, but then didn't really do anything to try to verify that what he found was correct.
Hold on...did you want me to double down on the scum instead? I never said you were wrong on that dichotomy.
MiX, gkrieg… care to share the reason for your votes?
MiX - finding myself in the same spot. However, this is end of Day 1, which where I am having trouble believing that that exact team is correct.
Vote Count 1.Final
Dylan32 (5) : faust, 2.71828....., mathdude, gkrieg13, WestCoastDidds
2.71828..... (4) : Dylan32, MiX, jotheonah, infangthief
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Swowl, Galzria
Not voting (1) : scolapasta
Shortly before the EOD wagon, couple things to note:
WCD - Her voting pattern that day, to entirety, was Dylan->Pasta->Dylan. At the time she went back to Dylan, she did so to be the tie breaking vote vs. E! But... E! was town.
This snap shot of events right here, has me at a hold up. If the team in question is MD, GK, WCD... then what? They chose to kill faust AND THEN E! guaranteeing if we were to exile ANYONE remaining on that wagon we find skum? That seems.. not good. Also, not needed. Didds in that spot could of just done nothing or could of spaced out onto the E! wagon.
If anything.. I would say there was quite some time between WCD being the final vote of the day and the day actually ending, she could of also voted for Math. But obviously in a world where it is WCD!Math!X... never going to do that. Math is on Dylan, I think X was on E! (because there is no way Efoo, or especially Galz, would be on Math if they were team mates at this point).
TLDR; Day 1 Didds is not conducive of a WCD/GK/Math team. However, I do think it could be in favor of a Math!Didds team.
*Counter argument to my own thought* - You would assume that if this were true, then, given the night kill selection they would be pushing GK. So that is weird. Hm. Turns out I need to think about this more actually. I stand by the team call not being likely though.
The scum team being Didds/math/gkrieg makes too much sense. Just reading VCA it's incredibly hard not to see a cohesive team of 3 people helping each other stay alive. You even have math voting Didds early D2 and then jumping off. I would provide to vote counts saying that this is the team, but it's really all of them. If you simply look at the list of votes D2, you see those 3 voting for other people while other people voting for those 3.
I won't vote because I don't know which one of these is 100% scum, but right now I'm having a hard time thinking about this game without thinking this is the scum team.
Gkrieg, do you have a read on Galz, and if so, can you tell us what it is?
I think the fact that I did not do the VCA yet (some fun things came up and I'm still planning to do it tonight) tells you that I did not do the things I said I was going to do. My motivation for this game has overall been low. I trust too many people here, and I've overall liked the thread. Probably should've sheeped more if I realized this earlier, but oh well.
I don't have any impressions on the wagons, other than I think they will be very useful when reading math and Didds. I should get to them tonight.
Is this a response to my reread on you?
Yes.
Bleh. Rereading D1, and of course the way scola enters the thread means he's town. I should've put so much more effort into this game...
While I'm here:Where is everybody?
I can't speak for everybody. But personally... way too busy in RL, and completely lost in-game. It almost still feels like another D1 without any scum flips yet. "I think because this person voted here..." and "my gut tells me..." and "it seems like XX and YY are partnering/buddying/sheeping/etc." is about all I can come up with. And I don't have time to dig into it deeper.
So where am I at? At the moment...
MiX and Didds look a bit scummy from how I felt they had minor interactions D1 (I mean when I read them "live" through D1, not looking back at their D1 now in D3 which I haven't done and don't have time to do).
Swowl has been contributing a bit, but I don't recall anything useful that stood out, so it sort of feels like lurking... could be scummy, but I have no idea.
Galz has been very non-existent, like scola was... does that make him scummy? I don't know.
joth still seems quite scummy to me, as most of his posts seem to be things I think (and avoid posting) when I'm scum, but others seem to be town-reading him for the exact things I think make him scummy.
EFHW and fang, I haven't really had a read on either way all game.
gkrieg has felt townie to me all game, which I recognize is mostly because he has been quite vocal about saying he thinks I'm town, and I know that's confirmation bias, and scum would definitely know I'm town, so I don't really know where that leaves me on him, but I sure hope he's town.
This is one post that for me points to Didds/math/gkrieg. Of course math would scumread Didds, and of course math would townread gkrieg. This makes perfect sense given what the dynamic in the scum chat probably is. The longer explanation for his gkrieg read also pings me a lot.
I think the fact that I did not do the VCA yet (some fun things came up and I'm still planning to do it tonight) tells you that I did not do the things I said I was going to do. My motivation for this game has overall been low. I trust too many people here, and I've overall liked the thread. Probably should've sheeped more if I realized this earlier, but oh well.
I don't have any impressions on the wagons, other than I think they will be very useful when reading math and Didds. I should get to them tonight.
End-of-day posts, which can be accessed through the game tracker, have been updated with all votes placed that day, linked. I can also include this type of list in future vote counts, if people want.
Because I can see various possible teams and am not at all sure at the moment who I suspect most. I hope to be more sure soon.And unvote
Why this unvote?
Didds, please let me know what you think of mathdude's post #988.