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51

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 03:56:01 pm »

@Scola, sorry if I missed this somewhere, what did you do with the magnifying glass?

nvm, found it at beginning of D4. you gave it to sudgy.

52

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 4)

« on: May 22, 2020, 03:52:47 pm »

Partners, I think that you should do the plan tonight that I suggested doing last night.

This post (unlike the one trying to convince Joseph to join the bad guys) does not really read like a bluff. It therefore gives a slight indication as to who the scumteam is. Would joth give this message in-thread if faust were on his team? I think he'd probably just trust faust to make the right decision concerning whatever this plan is that he's talking about. I know, wine and stuff, but whatever, it's worth pointing out.

53

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 3)

« on: May 22, 2020, 03:44:23 pm »

I'm mostly done saying stuff, just a few small tidbits left.

vote: LaLight

Mostly because (A) we need a wagon today and (B) I am ridiculously sure MiX is town and I like his reasoning, and faust is generally a strong player who I’m also townreading, though less strongly, so this seems like the right place to sheep. If I have time to do some rereading of LaLight of my own I’ll do that today.

This post, which comes immediately after faust's (look it up) vote on LaLight, looks very unpartnery to me. Way to blatant a sheeping of faust if they're actually partners.

ebwop. Sometimes I don't know how this happens....

54

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 3)

« on: May 22, 2020, 03:43:09 pm »

I'm mostly done saying stuff, just a few snag tidbits left.

vote: LaLight

Mostly because (A) we need a wagon today and (B) I am ridiculously sure MiX is town and I like his reasoning, and faust is generally a strong player who I’m also townreading, though less strongly, so this seems like the right place to sheep. If I have time to do some rereading of LaLight of my own I’ll do that today.

This post, which comes immediately after faust's (look it up) vote on LaLight, looks very unpartnery to me. Way to blatant a sheeping of faust if they're actually partners.

55

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 03:26:32 pm »

Honestly what's bugging me is, if mail-mi was scum with the rope, why would he blow his cover and block eevee? The risk/reward just doesn't add up. People were more or less willing to swallow that him and me were t and t, as evidenced by the fact that we're both still alive. Using the rope to block eevee would confirm that one of us is scum. And who knows if eevee is even doing anything worth blocking? I feel like I'm missing something.

maybe scum has some owl pieces they've been lying about and were worried I'd cop them? Something's up with the owl pieces, as scum decided to switch to Joseph last night. There's so much we are in the dark about of the mechanics compared to joseph and mafia.

You keep saying things that imply that scum knew you were a cop when they blocked you. I honestly don't know what to make of this. It's just a strange mistake to continually make and I don't know why you're doing it and it's making me nervous. Stop making me nervous. Thx.

56

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 22, 2020, 03:20:35 pm »

Joseph, did you receive part of a useful item last night?

I received an item yes

What makes you think that it would be useful to me?

I don't want to say too much yet, but given what you said you wanted, I was thinking what I had was a part of it.  I was going to say that if it was useful, anybody else who has a similar part should probably give it to you.  But if it's not, then it doesn't matter.

Okay without saying too much, yes you're correct, it was partially helpful (as I'm looking for something with multiple pieces)

This is Joseph on D2 more or less openly claiming he has a statue piece. Easy target for scum if they want it.

57

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 03:13:11 pm »

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more or less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims being roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)
13)joth gives mix the notebook N2.

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we can start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued.

Made some corrections in bold. Left the emoji as is. Added a fact

So in analyzing this stuff, I think the first things to consider are the two claims by faust (6 and 11). If faust is town, then he's telling the truth about those things. That would mean that joth stole from him N2, and despite being a treasure hunter, joth had no special stealing privileges. It seems to me that the only explanation (tell me if you have another)  is some sort of factional stealing ability, similar to the factional nk. That fits pretty well, and also answers the question of, how could thief!joth have stolen the rope N1 and given it to the scum!sailor N2, if he was busy giving the notebook to mix on N2? The answer, of course, is somebody other than joth used the factional steal N1. So all that works out, I think. The next thing to consider would be, did joth lie to his mates about the owl? I was bothered earlier by the fact that joth chose to steal from faust N2 when he already knew that Joseph had an owl piece. It could be that scum has some type of itemcop or owlcop and knew faust had an owl piece. If scum were owl hunting, joth either lied, or there's some other use that mafia had for the owl. But the explanation might be simpler. Maybe Joth wasn't going for owl pieces at all. He couldn't justify owl hunting to his scum buddies. Faust was confirmed in thread to have an unidentified item of some sort, so the mafia targeted him, without specifically aiming for the owl. All of this looks pretty internally consistent, and a viable narrative to explain everything. (And the only viable narrative that has a town!faust.)

Next, we'll explore a scum!faust world.

Questions? Comments? Points you disagree with?
Let me know.   

(Hopefully) to be continued.

Alright let's keep analyzing the stealing. (I'm becoming increasingly suspicious that nobody else is interested in this, but I think it's still worthwhile for my own benefit.)

So, the other road to go down is that faust is scum. This would mean he's almost definitely lying about being robbed N2. Why/how would scum rob scum? So, he probably just gave the wings to joth, then. That's pretty weird because N1 faust offers to trade the wings to town!mix, and then N2 he decides to give it to his scumbuddy? Why not do that right away N1? I guess it's possible that joth only wanted the owl after he got the notebook N1, so on N1 faust and the scumteam had no use for the owl yet. Then starting N2 joth lies to scum about why he needs the owl, or there is some other use scum had for the owl. What's unclear though, is this: if scum didn't steal from faust, from whom did they steal, and especially, if they were going for the owl, why not steal from Joseph? They stole from Joseph N3 (at least if we take Joseph's word for it, which I do, mostly), why not steal from him N2?
@Joseph, are you like 1-shot theft proof, or something?

Long story short, I think there are more holes in the scum!faust narrative than in the town!faust one. But neither is impossible.

I think I'm done meditating on the thefts, so we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

58

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 02:09:55 pm »

@Joseph, did you start the game with an item? If so, what item, and where is it now?

59

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 02:08:45 pm »

@Scola, sorry if I missed this somewhere, what did you do with the magnifying glass?

60

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 11:58:13 am »

@eevee (and adk and faust), can you read D4 and tell me what you think of Scola? I get a bunch of signals both ways, and want your opinion(s).

will do later tonight!

aight well I've got no access starting ~8 pm forum time and going till deadline. So the sooner the better. No pressure.

really hard for me too se anyone but mailmi as the lynch here. of couese you likely wont be here to help us figure it out tomorrow if that's correct (and town is pretty much done if it isnt)

No, I'm more or less convinced mail-mi should be today's lynch as well. Your investigation tonight will help us figure out who should be the lynch tomorrow. I'm just afraid I'll be dead tomorrow, so I'm trying to get all my thoughts in now. And other people's opinions might help me figure out my own.

61

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 11:55:17 am »

P.S.
One problem with the town!faust narrative is that there were no thefts reported last night. If the steal power is factional, there is no reason for it to have stopped with joth's death.

It could be that scum has a choice to steal or graverob (much like Joseph) and last night chose to graverob. I'll have to think about how much I like that explanation.

Or it could be that each scum can do only one thing. So last night with 2 scum alive, one had to kill and one had to rope. Nobody left to perform the steal.

62

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 11:47:07 am »

@eevee (and adk and faust), can you read D4 and tell me what you think of Scola? I get a bunch of signals both ways, and want your opinion(s).

will do later tonight!

aight well I've got no access starting ~8 pm forum time and going till deadline. So the sooner the better. No pressure.

63

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 11:44:58 am »

P.S.
One problem with the town!faust narrative is that there were no thefts reported last night. If the steal power is factional, there is no reason for it to have stopped with joth's death.

It could be that scum has a choice to steal or graverob (much like Joseph) and last night chose to graverob. I'll have to think about how much I like that explanation.

64

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 11:24:05 am »

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more or less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims being roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)
13)joth gives mix the notebook N2.

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we can start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued.

Made some corrections in bold. Left the emoji as is. Added a fact

So in analyzing this stuff, I think the first things to consider are the two claims by faust (6 and 11). If faust is town, then he's telling the truth about those things. That would mean that joth stole from him N2, and despite being a treasure hunter, joth had no special stealing privileges. It seems to me that the only explanation (tell me if you have another)  is some sort of factional stealing ability, similar to the factional nk. That fits pretty well, and also answers the question of, how could thief!joth have stolen the rope N1 and given it to the scum!sailor N2, if he was busy giving the notebook to mix on N2? The answer, of course, is somebody other than joth used the factional steal N1. So all that works out, I think. The next thing to consider would be, did joth lie to his mates about the owl? I was bothered earlier by the fact that joth chose to steal from faust N2 when he already knew that Joseph had an owl piece. It could be that scum has some type of itemcop or owlcop and knew faust had an owl piece. If scum were owl hunting, joth either lied, or there's some other use that mafia had for the owl. But the explanation might be simpler. Maybe Joth wasn't going for owl pieces at all. He couldn't justify owl hunting to his scum buddies. Faust was confirmed in thread to have an unidentified item of some sort, so the mafia targeted him, without specifically aiming for the owl. All of this looks pretty internally consistent, and a viable narrative to explain everything. (And the only viable narrative that has a town!faust.)

Next, we'll explore a scum!faust world.

Questions? Comments? Points you disagree with?
Let me know.   

(Hopefully) to be continued.

65

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 11:22:04 am »

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more or less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims being roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)
13)joth gives mix the notebook N2.

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we can start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued.

Made some corrections in bold. Left the emoji as is. Added a fact

So in analyzing this stuff, I think the first things to consider are the two claims by faust (6 and 11). If faust is town, then he's telling the truth about those things. That would mean that joth stole from him N2, and despite being a treasure hunter, he had no special stealing privileges. It seems to me that the only explanation (tell me if you have another)  is some sort of factional stealing ability, similar to the factional nk. That fits pretty well, and also answers the question of, how could thief!joth have stolen the rope N1 and given it to the scum!sailor N2, if he was busy giving the notebook to mix on N2? The answer, of course, is somebody other than joth used the factional steal N1. So all that works out, I think. The next thing to consider would be, did joth lie to his mates about the owl? I was bothered earlier by the fact that joth chose to steal from faust N2 when he already knew that Joseph had an owl piece. It could be that scum has some type of itemcop or owlcop and knew faust had an owl piece. If scum were owl hunting, joth either lied, or there's some other use that mafia had for the owl. But the explanation might be simpler. Maybe Joth wasn't going for owl pieces at all. He couldn't justify owl hunting to his scum buddies. Faust was confirmed in thread to have an unidentified item of some sort, so the mafia targeted him, without specifically aiming for the owl. All of this looks pretty internally consistent, and a viable narrative to explain everything. (And the only viable narrative that has a town!faust.)

Next, we'll explore a scum!faust world.

Questions? Comments? Points you disagree with?
Let me know.   

(Hopefully) to be continued.

66

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 07:59:05 am »

@eevee (and adk and faust), can you read D4 and tell me what you think of Scola? I get a bunch of signals both ways, and want your opinion(s).

67

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 07:38:17 am »

With regards to 1, it's a strong point; the only thing I will say is that with Traitor mechanics, it would be possible for scum to both start with the rope and need to rope.

2 again a good point, it is not impossible that having the Rope and being a Sailor lets you know about it being loud. Also, stealing is loud, maybe scum had already learned to expect actions to be loud.

3 is good. It could still be a Traitor thing, but even then traitor!Eevee still probably take some time for consideration.

So overall, I agree. I have been worrying a little because a lot of things around Eevee's claim seemed a bit off, but I agree that all things point to non-mafia. Of course it might still be that he has been aligned with Joseph from the start, but there's nothing to be done about that now.

Yes, it's too disturbing to contemplate traitor or 3rd party with Joseph, so I haven't.

68

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 07:34:11 am »

I don't know why there's an emoji there but I like it

69

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 07:33:26 am »

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims beyond roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we cam start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued. 

70

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 22, 2020, 07:00:12 am »

There's still some stuff I'd like to write up, and I hope I'll have time and energy for all of it. For now, I guess we can start with the easy stuff.

The title of this post will be

Eevee, the Conf!town
An Exercise in Attempting to Townclear Eevee, for the Purpose of Having One Less Thing to Worry About

Essentially, the argument that Eevee is town boils down to three things.

1)He claimed to start with the rope, with nobody counterclaiming. I see no way that scum could start with the rope, because I'm town and need the rope, so how would I ever get it if scum starts with it.

(In the interest of completion, there is one scum narrative that I've dreamt up here. It's possible that Swowl started out with the rope, and on N1 the mafia killed him and stole from him (brutal, I know), and scum!eevee knew it was safe to claim rope, because Swowl, the ropist, was dead. This seems fairly unlikely, but probably worth noting)


2)My role pm makes literally no mention of the rope being loud. I never would have even considered the possibility that the rope was loud. I can only assume mail-mi's pm (or the pm of whoever is the scum sailor) looks the same. So when Eevee claims that he was roped up on N3, he is almost definitely telling the truth. If he wasn't actually roped up, what would induce him to think that the roping would be loud. And well, if he really was roped up, then he's almost definitely town.


3)Looking back at eevee's claim (post 1623 and the ensuing conversation), it's clear he isn't partners with joth. He makes his claim without realising that it incriminates joth, which is interesting but, I guess, could go either way. But what's really interesting is what happens after. Sudgy points out that joth is likely scum, and, almost immediately, (75 seconds) eevee comes back to agree with sudgy and place a vote. I put it to you that this is not partner behavior. A partner would take a minute, kick himself about his botched claim, and really think things through about whether this situation is salvageable, or does he really need to bus at this point. He would not jump right out like that and vote. There's nothing to be lost by not posting anything, and waiting and thinking before making that vote.


So, eevee is town.

The End

71

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 21, 2020, 09:29:54 pm »

Yeah, I was tied up night 2, and claimed day 4.

umm

72

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 21, 2020, 07:00:38 pm »

@scola, how many baddies are alive, do you think?

I had thought 3. But I now think joth was just bluffing to make us think there were that many. (there's also a small part of me that wonders if that was trying to make us not suspect Joseph, but I'm not really sure I see a plausible way he's scum and not 3rd party like he says)

So then maybe just 2? faust and the scum!sailor?

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

A newbie question: what does Loud mean? I read up and thought it said you knew who performed an action on you. But if that were it, then Joseph or eevee would know who tied them up. So it can't be that. Does it just mean that they know they got tied up.

So if there's only two living scum, what exactly did you do yesterday that was so towny?

As to the loud business, I'm probably just using it wrong. I meant, like you say, they know they got tied up with a rope. I'm not sure if there's another term for it that's more precise, though.

73

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 21, 2020, 06:55:59 pm »

Maybe scum is worried about my investigative powers? I admit it's odd, but I think there being a third sailor is also unlikely.

100% agree that this is the best part of the game!

how did scum know about your investigation powers?

74

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 21, 2020, 06:21:47 pm »

@adk, are you still feeling disheartened about this game? We haven't heard much from you today. I don't really get what's disheartening honestly.

I'll admit that at the start of day 4, we were in pretty bad shape. I definitely felt discouraged, like the game was already lost and I didn't really know what to do. But then eevee came in with this awesome claim, which went like, a crazy long way towards solving the game, and I feel like we're totally in it at this point. I mean, maybe the rest of you disagree, but this for me is like the perfect situation for a mafia game. Day 5, tons of teeny tiny pieces of information, trying to piece everything together to decide who most likely are the bad guys, but it's really hard cuz there's so much you have to keep in your head at once. This is like, the reason to sign up for a mafia game, the most fun situation a mafia game can generate.

So I'm a little befuddled by your lack of engagement right now. Talk to us. 

75

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)

« on: May 21, 2020, 06:12:15 pm »

I'm surprised at how little we are talking about mail-mi/skip. Unless someone has some information they haven't divulged yet - since we know one of them has to be scum, surely figuring out which one should be our top priority? I don't think there's a third sailor somewhere, there aren't that many people left.

@eevee, why would scum!mail-mi out himself by using the rope? It doesn't seem worth it to me. I'm not sure why you don't consider this an issue