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Messages - JW

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701
Is the 2 event limit just recommendation by Donald X. or considered law?

Recommended by the Adventures rulebook, I believe, and presumably it will be the implementation in random games on Making Fun. It's also standard in the randomizer app I use, and probably other apps as well.

702
Because of the 2 event limit, you can't simply look at the chance that a certain event comes up before you draw 10 kingdom cards alone. You also need to know whether it is the first or second event, as future events won't be used.

Fortunately, every event has an equal probability of showing up, so if you calculate the average number of events that show up in a game, then that number is divided evenly among the 20 (21 with Summon) events. You can determine the distribution of the number of events that show up with the negative hypergeometric distribution. As of Adventures and 20 events, jonts26 did the following calculation of the chance for different numbers of events (I believe assuming 235 Kingdom cards).

I should have actually used negative hyper geometric instead of a naive binomial in my last post. Real probabilities are (for all cards):

0 events: 43.5%
1 event: 35.5%
2+ events: 21.0%

703
I can't believe Counting House is still last. I'm going to cry. :(

How many more crazy Counting House engine kingdoms will Stef need to design?

Congratulations to Stef, the designer of kingdom #5, and the winner of the 2014 Kingdom Design Challenge!

This is a well-deserved win against quality finalists who approached the design challenge in different ways.

Stef put together a great kingdom that has something for every level of Dominion player. While the kingdom first appears to be a Mountebank-Gardens game, there is a crazy Counting House-Storeroom based engine for the experts to find. You have to turn engine building rules on their head: Coppers are good. The goal is to draw your discard pile. Trigger the reshuffle so there is a bunch of junk in my deck? Yes, please! And what a spectacle to pull off.

Even though the crazy engine seems to be a dominant strategy among the very best players, it is really difficult to find and execute correctly. That gives the kingdom added replayability.

704
Young Witch is already too high though. I think it's a lot worse than Sea Hag - it can be blocked by a Bane, doesn't leave the Curse on top of your opponent's deck, and the sifting is way too weak to make up for it.

Sea Hag is awful at hitting $5, Young Witch is actually pretty good at it (YW/Silver hits it exactly once unless YW misses the reshuffle), and that makes a far more important difference.

This doesn't look right. For example, your Young Witch hand might draw 5-6 coppers and 0-1 estates (and you need to discard two cards, so you don't hit 5). Your other hand has 1 Silver + 1-2 coppers and you don't hit 5 there either.

Moat/Silver is guaranteed to hit $5 unless your Moat misses the reshuffle. Power opening!

705
Here is some useful data compiled by a forum user (not me) on gain rates of cards based on the top 20 players on Iso (as of one snapshot). I can't recall what the time range of the games played.

For example, Rats is gained by top 20 players in 33% of games (sample size: 615 games with Rats, of which it was gained 204 times).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13mQ1humtQbPLY9nbKscR65dV7hbGPdI3AQkNjMHZpeM/pubhtml?gid=495443102&single=true

706
What other useful auto-play scenarios are there other than the three I mentioned? I'm talking about auto-play for trivial logistics only; I'm not going to include stuff that auto-builds you a game-winning engine (pretending for a second that I could).

If Wandering Minstrel reveals only the same action, then if it's 2-3 copies of that action auto-put them back on top in "any" order.

707
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Scrying pool "fallacy"
« on: November 06, 2015, 09:29:45 pm »
Pretend you have 99 actions and only 2 Estates in your deck, with one Estate on top. So the other Estate has a 1 in 100 chance of being in each spot of your deck. 3 possible situations:

1) If the Estate is the very bottom card, then it makes no difference at all what order you play them in; you draw your whole deck. (1% chance)

2) If the Estate is the second from the top, then playing your Scrying Pool first means you draw nothing. Playing your Peddler first means you draw your deck. (1% chance)

3) If the Estate is in any other position at all (X from the top), then playing your Peddler first means drawing X cards, and playing your Scrying Pool first means drawing X+1 cards. (98% chance)

As you can see, 98% of the time it is better to play your Scrying Pool first. However, it is only better by 1 card. The 1% of the time where playing your Peddler first is better, it is 100 times better.

What you want to know is the distribution of the number of (useful) cards that you will draw is, depending on whether you play Scrying Pool first. It doesn't matter how much your choice to play Scrying Pool first "hurts you" in any one possible arrangement of cards in the deck. In the situation you presented, it seems like the distribution of the number of action cards that you draw will be the same whether you play Pool first or not.

Change it to 1 Estate on top plus 2 coppers in your deck and you'll have more coins for the turn, in the sense of First Order stochastic dominance, by playing Pool first. Stef's simulation above presumably shows the same result (first order stochastic dominance in the number of coins generated by playing Scrying Pool first).

Despite all of these reasons to play Pool first, you may regret it more if you play Pool first and the second Estate is the very next card.  ;)

708
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Scrying pool "fallacy"
« on: November 06, 2015, 05:39:46 pm »
Are you sure you got it right though? I also tried to brute force it and I get significantly better results when you play the pool first.
Which also happens to be what I always do when playing dominion, and what my intuition tells me what is best.

I also got that the average number of action cards is the same (when you include the card drawn from Peddler). If you play the Peddler first, you draw the Estate on top of your deck, and you get one other non-action card. If you play the Pool first, you get 1 non-action card from Pool plus some probability of another non-Action card with Peddler.

If the Estate is worthless, the average number of "useful cards drawn" looks better when you play the Pool first. So the difference in results may just be a different way of looking at it.

I used calculations based on math derived here: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11583.msg408311#msg408311 and http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11583.msg408300#msg408300

709
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Scrying pool "fallacy"
« on: November 06, 2015, 04:29:25 pm »
Do you:
1) Play the Peddler so that you can use the Scrying Pool on a "fresh" deck, increasing the chance that the spy effect combs chaff out of your way and hits a stream of action cards.

2) Play the Scrying Pool first so the friendly spy effect is guaranteed to actually discard a card that is bad.  And the Peddler draws a "fresh" card later so this is really the better play.

If you don't want the Estate that is on top, play the Scrying Pool first. If you do want the Estate, play Peddler first.

Deadlock's simulation is correct that the number of action cards drawn is the same on average. So if you don't want the Estate, you draw more useful non-action cards on average by discarding it

710
Variants and Fan Cards / Conquest - discard attack and gainer
« on: November 04, 2015, 03:25:58 pm »
Conquest
$6
Action - Attack
Each other player with five or more cards in hand discards a card that costs from $3 to $6, or reveals a hand with no cards that cost from $3 to $6.
Gain a card costing up to $5.

Inspired by Tithe. Thoughts appreciated.

It feels like a strong attack to add to an engine. I'm not sure how it would play in money games: it might lead to early Duchy gaining because Duchies can be gained by Conquest and discarded to blunt the attack when an opponent plays Conquest.

Original version: (same as current)

711
The sad thing is, there's a pretty good chance this wasn't even someone trying to exploit their way to the top of the leaderboard. It was probably just some guy who wanted to play Serf Bot a bit and ended up on top of the leaderboard as a result.

He probably didn't want to play Serf Bot. As of the transition to 2.0 last month, Making Fun's automatch wouldn't pair you with bots better than Serf Bot until you have beaten Serf Bot a number of times. Apparently you need to go to the "Challenge Players" and specifically challenge a better bot, like Lord Bottington, to get a non-trivial bot opponent. There's no list of bots and their ratings to help you out, though.

712
Rules Questions / Re: Black market + travellers
« on: November 02, 2015, 01:24:20 pm »
Does pile count as the black market pile?

If you bought a Traveller from the Black Market, you're out of luck. http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Traveller

Quote
Exchanging must happen both ways; there must be somewhere for the discarding card to return to. If a Traveller is bought using Black Market, there is no pile to return it to and therefore it cannot be exchanged.

713
Goko Dominion Online / Re: Logsearch and Isotropish leaderboard for 2.0
« on: October 28, 2015, 09:29:53 pm »
2) Logpretifier only works with this Chrome extension:
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/allow-control-allow-origi/nlfbmbojpeacfghkpbjhddihlkkiljbi (DISABLE this extension after using logprettifier, it can be a security hole)
Reason MF does not add Access-Control-Allow-Origin: * header as Goko did.

Is this something that we could request to have changed on Making Fun forums (so that the prettier logs are available without needing an extension)?

I'd be happy to do it. Would the description "MF does not add Access-Control-Allow-Origin: * header as Goko did" be sufficient for Making Fun to know what change is needed?

714
Goko Dominion Online / Re: bug report about matchmaking
« on: October 28, 2015, 01:56:06 pm »
For most people it would be very difficult to confirm that someone isn't within 1000 points of your rating on the leaderboard because you would need to scroll through hundreds of positions on the leaderboard. Since Stef is nearly at the top of the leaderboard, last I checked there were fewer than 100 people with ratings within 1000 points of his.

The chance that someone could make it to the top 100 of the leaderboard while playing like this also seems remote:

Today I played a game on a board with Cultist, City, Black Market and Altar. I was a bit in doubt whether to keep it simple with money+cultist or build the engine.
My opponent certainly decided to keep it simple, as he skipped all kingdom cards! Now that first Gold may have been a misclick, but those early Duchies over Cultists...

715
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Challenge: easiest win versus AI
« on: October 27, 2015, 04:23:35 pm »
Relevant joke I stole from somewhere:

It's a real story from Donald X.

Donald X. once told me about the worst opening he'd ever seen in Dominion.

In someone's first game, on his first turn, he played two Coppers.  He thought carefully for a while and took an Estate.

Everyone chimed in at this point.  "Oh, it's too early for that."  "Oh, you want to buy Victory cards later in the game" etc. etc.

Chagrined, on his next turn, he played five Coppers.  After thinking even more carefully, he took a ... Feast.

716
The normal patch just gives the updated log and changed Masq highlight color, nothing else.

Thanks for this, speed patch is great. Is there a way that you can make it so that the log shows the full player names at the very start of the game? If I'm going first, it's strange not to know who I'm playing until after my first buy! Sorry if this has already been covered.

717
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Walled Village
« on: October 25, 2015, 11:44:35 am »
Everything is a poor use for a promo! If the card is good then it should be in an expansion, and if it's not then it still isn't as a promo.

Black Market is a great use for a promo. Though it is the best card in Dominion, it adds a lot of setup to a game and needing to read the cards in the Black Market deck can take a lot of time for players who aren't very experienced. Online, Black Market shines because the setup issue goes away, there are lots of experienced players, and it's just as easy to buy a promo as any other card.

718
In the transition from the previous version to the current one, I received the Stash promo card for free because I had some number of extra "shields."

I would prefer not to own Stash, so I posted on making fun's forums and got Stash removed from my account. If you want to get rid of Stash or another unwanted promo, PM David on making fun's forums with your user name, associated email address, and the promo(s) you want to get rid of.

P.S. You are not allowed to give back Black Market, though, because it's the best card in Dominion. :P

719
Dominion Articles / Re: Combo: Bridge and Royal Carriage
« on: October 20, 2015, 07:03:28 pm »
I played a few Solitaire games with nothing else in the kingdom.  In all games, I limited myself to 7 Royal Carriages (important) and 5 Bridges (less important) - to simulate some contention over these cards.  Because the strategy involves rushing to Royal Carriages, I think it is fair to suppose that one wins the split, but it's worth testing how good the strategy is with 5 or 6 Royal Carriages.  My best game resulted in 8 Provinces on turn 12.  I recorded what I bought on each turn, but not what I had in hand or played.

The assumptions regarding the split depend on what other strategies might involve buying Royal Carriages and also the number of players.

If Royal Carriage-Bridge decks are mediocre when 2+ players go for the same strategy but the uncontested Royal Carriage-Bridge deck wins easily, you still need to play the mirror with 2-players. When considering Royal Carriage-Bridge in 2 player vs. a simple money strategy that wouldn't normally add many Royal Carriages because they have little benefit (e.g., Embassy big money), you can safely assume you'll get even more than 7 Royal Carriages.

In 3-player, a strategy that is weak if mirrored but wins easily if not mirrored leads to game theoretic considerations and it is hard to give general advice. It would also be worth noting if this strategy is strong enough that even when mirrored in 3-player games the two players going for Royal Carriage-Bridge are still favored.

720
Goko Dominion Online / Re: Wrong rating in new platform
« on: October 20, 2015, 05:25:39 pm »
Thanks. Well, the old one is defunct now of course. So I'm looking at the new one, and I see I'm at level -28. I just started playing like 5 days ago, and I only played like 5 games, but I haven't lost a single one. How can I be below 0? I guess this leaderboard was handled the same way as Makingfun..?

The leaderboard only updates once a day, so you may have games that don't show up yet (only 1 game showed up so far for you when I look at it).

Second, your level is based on the estimated mean ranking - 3 * the standard deviation of your ranking. When you have few games that 3-standard deviation is a big penalty! I'm 3-0 and still below level 0 for the same reason.

721
Goko Dominion Online / Re: Wrong rating in new platform
« on: October 20, 2015, 05:13:05 pm »
Then I wonder how the Isotropish leaderboard handled this. I'm not even on it any more. Don't tell me it was handled in the same stupid way...

There are separate leaderboards for 1.0 and 2.0.

use http://gokosalvager.com:6080/leaderboard/ for old 1.0
use http://gokosalvager.com/leaderboard/ for 2.0

722
Game Reports / Re: Dear My Opponent: I am Sorry
« on: October 16, 2015, 04:33:15 pm »
Stef is getting such bad opponents he is just playing solitaire instead of fighting.

His brain is gonna atrophy and we will lose a Dominion genius due to this software :((((((

Time for Project: Challenge Stef. We can't tell whether he's online or not (thanks, Making Fun!), but we'll set up a rotation to challenge him once an hour so that he gets a few (reasonably) competitive games. I'll take the Swindler games at 4 am Stef's time.

723
Goko Dominion Online / Re: Open Beta Ending Soon, RIP Goko on 10/15
« on: October 16, 2015, 01:04:46 pm »
I've played a bunch of games today too. Very similar experiences all the time.
People buying coppers because the have buys to spare (goons not included), people building up their fairgrounds score even though it's not on the board.
Players not answering at all when you chat to them.
It was sort of fun for a day, but it won't stay fun very long.

I had a Bishop-Fortress-Scheme-Rabble game against an opponent who bought Coppers on spare buys, starting on turn 2, and who didn't resign until I had over 110 points.

724
Goko Dominion Online / Re: Thank You, Salvagers
« on: October 14, 2015, 09:10:39 pm »
Goko Salvager was there for us to brighten our darkest moments. It was there when the log was a hidden and unreadable mess; it was there when the chat window popped up over our hands; when we were forced to scan dozens of lobbies for an appropriate game; when the ratings were laughable and the kingdom selection was primitive; and it was there when we were faced with the maddening horror of having to play a single game without our beloved servant—the VP counter. In short: whenever we needed something, Goko Salvager was there to provide it.

Goko Salvager was also there when our avatars were uninspired and barely distinguishable; it was there when we needed Masterpiece overpays to resolve this century, it was there when we wanted to see our entire hand in humongous engines; most importantly, it was also there when we needed to blacklist tgorm.

Fun fact: 9% of all blacklist entries are tgorm

725
Goko Dominion Online / Re: Bizarre Bot Strategies II
« on: October 13, 2015, 01:48:22 pm »
Lord Bottington turn 16:
Lord Bottington plays Workshop
Lord Bottington gains Silver
Lord Bottington plays 2 Copper
Lord Bottington buys Estate

Lord Bottington had the 3 pile win by using Workshop to gain the last Village (edit: even without buying that Estate). I won on my next turn.

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