Game 1:
2nd Tunnel is borderline for me, I might prefer Silver (but it's close). I definitely prefer Silver over the 3rd Tunnel. I think on turn 11 I wouldn't trigger the reshuffle. But I mean Embassy is going to lose if your two Embassies collide at the bottom of your shuffle twice, there's no way around it.
Update:
I created an actual public interface.
http://www.2pih.com/cardAnalyzer.php
Right now it will only pull a max of 1000 games. I am checking with the Goko Salvager folks to see if they are okay with me increasing that.
Yes. The thing to keep in mind is that there are common events that can take place on T1-T4 that are comparable in effect to P1 advantage. Examples: bad opening split, bad money distribution on T3/T4, or a key opening buy missing a shuffle. With Tournament/Ambassador, some additional specific unluck examples that can occur are Ambassador hitting 4 coppers without a good $2 on the board, or various mishaps in the process of gaining a Province and connecting it with Tournament. While any of these individually may be of greater or smaller impact than P1 advantage, the point is that P1 advantage can easily be overturned by events within the game.The idea that you should do something different as player 2 because you're player 2 is almost always just wrong. There's usually a best thing to do, and you should just do that. And when this isn't the case, you're usually adapting because some strategy is a little better against what they did, and it was close to start. You're really almost never never switching just because you're p2.I'm surprised bishop/silver doesn't show up for P2, and surprised militia/silver doesn't show up for P1. My nonsense theory for hermit-silver: these game tend towards fast three piles, which has more ties than average, which favors P2.I think you are wrong with you last implication.
I'm really surprised that there are mirror openings where P1 has a 70% winrate... that means there are kingdoms where P1 is heavily favored.
What it says, is, that there are card combinations, that are bad to mirror as P2. It does not say, whether there can be other cards to minimalize this effect (because now we're looking at mirrors). For example, if your P1 opponent opens Swindler/Silver you could try something else like Remake/Silver, so that the advantage of P1 goes down by a few percentages. Maybe, if my opponent opens with an attack card, I am more likely to invest into defense like a moat or something, and maybe this can be better than mirroring what P1 does.
Btw. I am surprised not to see any Witch-openings in the list of P1 advantages.
The idea that you should do something different as player 2 because you're player 2 is almost always just wrong. There's usually a best thing to do, and you should just do that. And when this isn't the case, you're usually adapting because some strategy is a little better against what they did, and it was close to start. You're really almost never never switching just because you're p2.I'm surprised bishop/silver doesn't show up for P2, and surprised militia/silver doesn't show up for P1. My nonsense theory for hermit-silver: these game tend towards fast three piles, which has more ties than average, which favors P2.I think you are wrong with you last implication.
I'm really surprised that there are mirror openings where P1 has a 70% winrate... that means there are kingdoms where P1 is heavily favored.
What it says, is, that there are card combinations, that are bad to mirror as P2. It does not say, whether there can be other cards to minimalize this effect (because now we're looking at mirrors). For example, if your P1 opponent opens Swindler/Silver you could try something else like Remake/Silver, so that the advantage of P1 goes down by a few percentages. Maybe, if my opponent opens with an attack card, I am more likely to invest into defense like a moat or something, and maybe this can be better than mirroring what P1 does.
Btw. I am surprised not to see any Witch-openings in the list of P1 advantages.
^
Procession is really situational, and not really a village, so it doesn't really compare to real villages.
Regarding Village vs Shanty Town: Imagine a board in which you go for Village. Now suppose Shanty Town is there instead. Most of the time, you go for the same strategy, but with Shanty Town instead. However, there are boards in which Shanty Town is useful and Village is not.
So you're saying that as P2, when your opponent opens tournament/ambassador, you won't mirror? Good luck...
I'm surprised bishop/silver doesn't show up for P2, and surprised militia/silver doesn't show up for P1. My nonsense theory for hermit-silver: these game tend towards fast three piles, which has more ties than average, which favors P2.I think you are wrong with you last implication.
I'm really surprised that there are mirror openings where P1 has a 70% winrate... that means there are kingdoms where P1 is heavily favored.
I feel like Loan as the only trasher is always the right decision on a GM board, Vault or no Vault.
On the other hand, gainer + Gardens/Silk Roads always cries for a rush. Is there another possibility to score more than 6 points without +buy? Maybe Altar?Rushes are generally overrated, Workshop rushes are terrible (need a very weak board to be good). Armory is pretty bad also. Ironworks is the only card that makes me consider a rush strong. The rest can be outraced by almost anything.
There are almost a million cards which can gain Duchies or extra Provinces: Remodel, Expand, Butcher, Remake, Upgrade, Governor, Develop, Stonemason, Horn of Plenty, Forge, Graverobber, Altar, Count, Hunting Grounds, Tournament, Highway (honorable mention, needs a gainer). It's actually hard to find a board where Duchies aren't a viable source of "alt-VP" for an engine player.
Turns to X Provinces is not a good metric for comparing strategies. It leaves out direct interaction between players, but more importantly it leaves out the idea of control. One of the main strengths of a powerful engine is the ability to end the game when it is advantageous for you to do so. (End the game when you have the most points, don't aim to have the most points when the game ends.) If an engine player does not want to buy Provinces then they should be able to do something else useful that will enable an even more explosive finish later on. This is one reason why lack of +Buy is one of the most painful constraints on engine-building.
s there no +Buy? Well look for gainers, I think about the most points I can score in a turn and whether or not that will be enough to catch up.
I know there's basically no trashing, but I don't care: Quarry+Grand Market always makes me happy.
Poor House, Squire, Trade Route, Sage, Armory, Quarry, Contraband, Counting House, Mystic, Grand Market
Masterpiece is the biggest money you can buy.
http://dominionstrategy.com/2013/01/23/the-five-fundamental-deck-types-the-engine/ may have some engine building answers.
Actually only Harvest and maybe Minion are really neutral. I forgot this, Harvest is neutral (meaning: fully random) cycling in Dominion.
Tribute, Jester, Swindler, Rogue, Knights, Sea Hag. Also most draw cards.
I think SCSN is correct here.
Maybe it's better to have 5 Menageries drawing on average 2 cards than 6 Menageries drawing on average 1.5 cards? Mathematically this is obvious, but I pulled the numbers out of thin air, so I don't know for sure.