At some point in time, I had come across
this site that ranks many of the possible openers with each other. That is, openers like Mountebank / Chapel are ranked higher than Scout / Chancellor, etc. To my understanding, the list is ranked something like opener X is better than opener Y if the percentage of games in which a player opens X and their opponent doesn't and wins, is higher than the same thing for opening Y. I'm not 100% on the mechanics of the calculations, but this definition suffices for the discussion below.
Some asides about the site
- It doesn't contain any Dark Ages or Guilds cards. So you don't see opening-wackiness with things like Baker, Stonemason, Doctor, etc. Also, it always assumes Estates (no Shelters).
- It probably doesn't have a lot of data for openers that people don't actually do very often, e.g. openers that contain Curses or Coppers. But it still attempts to rank everything.
- I don't really know how it handles things like Nomad Camp or Noble Brigand (but who cares about those cards anyways??)
(If anyone knows a more complete/reliable place for ranking openers, I'd like to know about it.)
After browsing through the page, a few relationships between different openers were very surprising to me. I've listed 10 of these observations below, and attempted some sort of explanation for them. In this list, "Better Opening" and "Worse Opening" are 2 different openers
in which they both contain a common card, and the "Better Opening" has a higher rank than the "Worse Opening" according to the site.
Any discussion is welcome.
| Better Opening | Worse Opening | Possible Explanation |
1 | Courtyard / Upgrade | Courtyard / Ill-Gotten Gains | Both are good $5 cards. But I would think $2/$5 would be a huge advantage over $3/$4 in kingdoms with Courtyard and IGG, more so than it would be in kingdoms with Courtyard and Upgrade. Maybe I am underestimating Upgrade though. |
2 | Ambassador / - | Ambassador / Oasis | I realize both Ambassador and Oasis reduce your hand size, but I really would think the Oasis would help with (1) cycling, and (2) pairing Estates with Estates, or Coppers with Coppers for the Ambassador. I would especially think (2) would be good in the early game when you're generally not buying stuff on the turns you're playing Ambassador (because you have just $1 or $2 to spend). |
3 | Silver / Salvager | Silver / Militia | I guess I can see this one because both are good. But Militia is just so powerful. Maybe the chances of your opponent discarding junk (Estates) when Militia'd early are higher than I thought. |
4 | Silver / Island | Silver / Tournament | No explanation here. Island is generally not a good opener, except in a few edge cases. And Tournament is the bomb. Silver / Tournament is actually very low compared to many other Tournament / <x> openings. Is there something I am missing about Tournament? I realize it's more of an engine-enabler, compared to a BM-enabler. Maybe that's why it doesn't synergize with Silver as much as I thought it would. |
5 | Loan / Island | Loan / Militia | No explanation here. Similar reasoning as above. |
6 | Chapel / Contraband | Chapel / Cache | I guess with Cache, you're at higher risk of missing Chapel in your first reshuffle. But Contraband just stinks to me. I would probably take Chapel / Cache over Chapel / Contraband on most boards, and risk missing Chapel on the first reshuffle. |
7 | Cellar / Pawn, Cellar / Scheme | Cellar / Tunnel | Obviously, none of these are great openers. But at least Cellar / Tunnel has some synergy, with roughly a 35% chance of gaining an easy Gold before the second reshuffle. |
8 | Wishing Well / Remake | Wishing Well / Ambassador | It seems all the benefits of Wishing Well for Remake (getting an Estate into your hand that you otherwise would not have had, to get Remake'd), would exist for Ambassador (getting Estate into hand to return it with Ambassador). So I don't see why Remake would be better here. Ambassador is just so powerful. |
9 | Baron / ANYTHING | Baron / Estate | I realize you're pretty much always better off opening Baron / - than Baron / Estate. But come on. Estate is worse than, say, a Tunnel? Or a Curse?? Only explanation here is there is not enough data, i.e. people don't actually open Baron / Crap often enough for the data to show a reliable rank of which Crap is better. |
10 | Caravan / Trade Route | Caravan / Silver, Caravan / Loan | With Trade Route being such a weak thinner, and its rare economy activation near the beginning of the game, I would surely think old reliable Silver would be the better opener, and Loan as the better thinner/sifter. |