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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: November 04, 2024, 01:53:27 pm »
Rate the probability that Trump knows what a tariff is
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: November 03, 2024, 08:42:35 am »
Sleep sucks anyway
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: November 03, 2024, 08:42:27 am »
Being sleep deprived is just my favorite
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: November 03, 2024, 08:41:58 am »
First results come in 1 AM on Tuesday, I'm already looking forward to not getting any sleep. I love not getting sleep :->
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: November 03, 2024, 08:31:44 am »
I mean in fairness, tons of people online are saying the same thing; he's just actually putting his money to his beliefs. Imo this is what you should do, so I'm more inclined to talk shit about everyone else who isn't betting 80% of their networth.
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: November 03, 2024, 08:29:17 am »
But we do now know the source of the dumb money? https://x.com/conorsen/status/1852450558088470599
(Would link the article itself but it's paywalled https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3)
(Would link the article itself but it's paywalled https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3)
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: November 03, 2024, 06:38:39 am »
So the smart money does exist but they waited until a few days ago to put in money? Idgi. But now I'm not buying more shares -- when it was at 33cts, I was planning to put in a little more; those were pretty good odds.
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Weekly Design Contest / Re: Weekly Design Contest #235: Polly Want a Cracker!
« on: November 01, 2024, 06:20:51 pm »
Elegant workaround: "You may play a Cultist from your hand, where "Cultist" means "[card name]".
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Weekly Design Contest / Re: Weekly Design Contest #235: Polly Want a Cracker!
« on: October 31, 2024, 02:49:33 pm »
I'm more worried about the silver gaining part. What this mainly does is make BM+Prospector much stronger than it would otherwise be -- and it would otherwise be very strong. Drawing cards is good, the on-gain is good, the coffers are amazing, and the free silvers are also amazing (... if you're playing a big money strategy). That's a lot to put on one card. As is, I think BM+Prospector would buy 4 Provinces very quickly; I wouldn't be surprised if it's significantly faster than Rebuild.
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 25, 2024, 05:09:07 pm »
Guys, The Onion is good again! It only took 15 years of downtime.
Ok it's not as good as it used to be, but still.
Ok it's not as good as it used to be, but still.
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 24, 2024, 12:53:18 pm »
This is so strange: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1849322869324652773
Like the community notes are really good, but it is so weird that Elon posts stuff stupid enough to need them, but it is really cool that it applies to his own account, but it is so weird that it has to
Abstractly, the fact that someone who invents a feature to fight misinformation also does things which this feature genuinely applies to is
Like the community notes are really good, but it is so weird that Elon posts stuff stupid enough to need them, but it is really cool that it applies to his own account, but it is so weird that it has to
Abstractly, the fact that someone who invents a feature to fight misinformation also does things which this feature genuinely applies to is
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 22, 2024, 10:13:52 am »The media (who remarkably consistently fail to understand what prediction markets are) seem to think it's obviously good for Trump
I did notice -- despite not watching the news -- that prediction markets are suddenly way way more talked about than a few years ago. Somehow, polymarket seems to have broken into the mainstream discourse in a way that past prediction markets did not at all
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 22, 2024, 10:12:09 am »
Isn't it weird that jokes are socially appropriate in almost every context? You can just insert something with zero relevance to the current discussion whenever you want, as long as it's trying to be funny. It's also a weirdly underrated aspect of human society.
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 22, 2024, 10:11:03 am »It could be a rich guy trying to influence the election, although it's not obvious whether being a favorite in the markets is good or bad for a candidate?
The psychological manipulation aspect of it seems speculative at best since it could have so many different effects in either candidate's favor.
Yeah, agreed.
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 22, 2024, 08:25:39 am »
The 2024 Market is now completely crazy
There's been some movement toward Trump, but it's minor -- I think in Nate Silver's model, he's now a 52/48 favorite or something.
Apparently there's been a few accounts, plausibly just from one person, that dumped millions into Trump Yes.. It's unclear why. It could be a rich guy trying to influence the election, although it's not obvious whether being a favorite in the markets is good or bad for a candidate? It could also be a rich guy who genuinely thinks Trump is a 2-1 favorite because the polls will underestimate Rs. Hard to say.
Either way, if I'd known this would happen, I'd have waited until now to buy shares. Now I don't have more money to spare and I'm certainly not selling now, so I'm all-in -- double or nothing!
There's been some movement toward Trump, but it's minor -- I think in Nate Silver's model, he's now a 52/48 favorite or something.
Apparently there's been a few accounts, plausibly just from one person, that dumped millions into Trump Yes.. It's unclear why. It could be a rich guy trying to influence the election, although it's not obvious whether being a favorite in the markets is good or bad for a candidate? It could also be a rich guy who genuinely thinks Trump is a 2-1 favorite because the polls will underestimate Rs. Hard to say.
Either way, if I'd known this would happen, I'd have waited until now to buy shares. Now I don't have more money to spare and I'm certainly not selling now, so I'm all-in -- double or nothing!
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 10, 2024, 07:37:39 am »
I don't know the technical details of what changes Musk made to twitter (I only know the things the user experiences directly, such as the longer post thing and that you can't send everyone DMs anymore), but my prior reasons for thinking that he would improve twitter have been falsified, so now if you tell me that he's made twitter worse, my default assumption is that you're right.
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 07, 2024, 03:15:51 pm »
Actually I guess if I can give numerical scores, I'd give Ice a 9.6 and Program Music III a 9.8
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 07, 2024, 03:14:33 pm »
I think the album is now a 2.5/10. Only a 7.5 gap to his previous album, or the one before that!
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 07, 2024, 11:50:25 am »None of those pixels are really integral to the picture, you could change any number of them to a random grayscale pixel and the picture would still look the same. Meanwhile, if you just changed the sub bass sound so that it starts at 0° phase instead of the ~90° it actually does, that would very substantially change the character of the song. (This is what difference it would make.)
Only if you understand what the song does in the first place. I think one of the harder things in life is to simulate the less competent perspective. I don't make music or listen to a lot of techno that sounds like this; I don't understand what the song is doing; all I hear is BRRRR bipbipbipbip BRRRR BRBRBRBRBRBRRRRRRR bipbipbipbip (x100) (I'm exaggerating a little now, but you get the point). And compared to other music I don't understand, the complexity isn't as apparent.
Also I admit that I do like it just a little more now since this conversation made me listen a few times.
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 06, 2024, 08:37:23 pm »
Replace sounds with pixels and that's also true for this picture:
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 06, 2024, 08:23:51 pm »And the stuff that is there in Green is definitely a lot more complex and particular (as in, it is crucial for things to sound exactly the way they do, much more so than it is in Ice)Alright well there's the part I don't get. I think you could change the sounds by a lot and move a lot of stuff around and it wouldn't sound particularly worse to me.
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 06, 2024, 08:07:43 pm »
(Also do you actually like Green or are you just playing Devil's Advocate?)
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 06, 2024, 07:07:50 pm »I don't enjoy any aspect of this, I'd have to give it like a 1/10. But even just looking at how much stuff there is in here, it feels so underwhelming. Like it feels like something he could do in a month. The good stuff he's made has so many layers, and it all feels so perfectly and lovingly crafted together. This is just a bunch of shit. Genuinely, I think he could do this in a month. And, well, since the lat album was released in July 24th of this year, it can't have been that much more time.
There's so much stuff though. I only listened to Green, but there's lots of different synths and some of them are very complex sounds with modulation, some are complex enough that I don't even know how they're made beyond recognizing some obviously apparent techniques. There's also tons of different percussive elements, and even the vocal sample and piano have all kinds of glitch effects and other processing going on. This kind of stuff is actually pretty difficult to do and almost necessarily involves a lot of experimentation and trying out different versions of things, because it's that hard to find the balance between overdoing and not doing enough and to identify the reasons why your current version doesn't sound as satisfying as you're imagining it should.
I don't think it's unrealistic to make in a month, but a month is a very long time to be making an album's worth of electronic music (for reference, I spent about 2-3 hours per song on the Jelly Is Sticky soundtrack, and Martin Garrix has a 23-minute long tutorial where he teaches you how he made his hit song Animals and it's almost comprehensive enough that you can just follow the tutorial and recreate the song if you have the same samples and presets he's using), and I'd actually believe him if he said it took much more than a month if the whole album is like Green.
It's possible that I'm not appreciating how much variety there is--
but it's also possible that I'm underwhelmed because I'm comparing it to his previous work. Have you listened to what he did before this? The title track from the previous album is a pretty good one, also only 10 minutes long. Don't you agree that this is way more stuff? https://virginbabylonrecords.bandcamp.com/album/ice
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Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 06, 2024, 08:52:18 am »
Or maybe this is just tickling aesthetics at a level inaccessible to me, and if I understood more about music, I'd consider it a masterpiece.