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Messages - faust

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23701
A slight problem with splitting the players into two groups for the doctors to protect is this: at the end of the day, there will be nine of us alive. So the groups won't be equally big (one 4, one 5 group). Mafia will almost certainly kill among the bigger group (smaller chance of protection). So maybe the most townie players should be in the smaller group. On the other hand, I'm not sure that this really is a big issue...

23702
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 2 Starts)
« on: September 07, 2013, 09:34:11 pm »
Given Box hasn't said anything, I don't see that as compelling evidence to not be voting. Box seems to have sussed out a good strategy from D1- the period of time when he said very little, there was nothing suspicious in that time and all the votes that were for him disappeared. Similarly from this first part of D2! He gets from L- 1 to one vote without saying anything!
I'll be happier when we have some stuff said.

I'm not sure I see what you see in those chair posts, faust. I assume that was when Box had his previous alignments in his post signature.
I remember because I also saw that and did a double-take. Even if someone did "accidentally" place their alignment in their signature I wouldn't take it as a gospel truth. Of course chairs may have been referring to something completely different that I missed.

It's an example where chairs seems townie - why would he do that as scum? If he thinks there was a townslip of Box, why would he want to point that out to us? He clearly wasn't trying to mislead us, as he took it back immediately in the next post. Just doesn't seem like a scum thing to do. Of course, the whole thing tells nothing regarding Box's alignment.

23703
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 2 Starts)
« on: September 06, 2013, 06:49:54 pm »
By the way, I'm fine with the soft deadline. Just keep in mind that it's 3 am in my time zone, so I probably won't be around short before the deadline. Same goes for the hard deadline.

23704
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: September 06, 2013, 06:46:24 pm »
I reread chairs a little and most of what he does seems quite townie to me. For example, there's this post:

Also, I have a very strong town read on Box as of right now.

Upon further inspection, what I thought was a definite townslip is actually the true situation so I'm back to null-to-town on Box.

I just can't see why scum would do something like that. Also, unvote for now. I haven't yet made my mind up on the Box/jon cases.

23705
Okay, doctor directed vig is a terrible idea.

We have two doctors for 9 people(after the lynch)

That's a 22% chance of blocking the night kill. That's great!

Remember we want to get the maximum number of town directed lynches in the maximum number of days, I see no reason to use docs for anything other than docs, their chance of blocking kills gets exponentially larger.

I have two plans for the docs:

1) Each doctor targets one of the players clockwise around the table stopping at the other doctor. So Efhw docs one of Faust, ash, chairs, volt, sudgy, and sudgy docs one of robz, mail-mi, mcmc, theorel, efhw. No chance of accidental kill, max potential to block the kill.

2) Lynch one of the docs, if they flip scum, new doc protects the now IC and the IC doc protects anyone. This gives us a permanent IC as well as one permanent doc(one doc forever protects ic and one protects someone of their choice) we declare which doc is doing which so if the ic gets doc killed we know the doc that choses a player is scum. If they flip town this is now help, this is a bad plan...

I liked this doctor plan as well when I first read it, but it has one flaw: if one doctor is mafia-contolled, they get a safe kill. Just kill someone from their side of he table!

Also, I don't get why you think the vig idea is bad. You write yourself that we want "the maximum number of town directed lynches". Well, that's exactly what a vig kill is here.

23706
Okay, so far you've only talked about my comments on the considering the doctors town part...what about the town-directed vig part?
To summarize again, I think we should:
Day 1: lynch, no doc direction
Day 2: lynch, direct docs to vig a player assuming we mislynch (unless docs killed someone night1).
Day 3: lynch, direct docs only if there was a doc save night1 (otherwise it's pointless, scum already won or we survived lylo and should hope they protect)

This one is more important (to me anyways) because town needs to agree on it for it to work.

It's pretty similar to your suggestion, but we get a day3 lynch instead of a day1 vig.  I think that should be preferable, but maybe I'm missing something.

Really this is for everyone: would people generally be okay with orchestrating a double-lynch on day2?

I'm quite okay with this, only I would give the docs direction D1 also, the way I laid out earlier (one doc targets the other). Also I believe we shouldn't stick to this plan no matter what, but rather figure out each day what the best move for our doctors is. For instance, if we lynch scum D1, we're not really in a hurry and should consider not to use the vig.

23707
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: September 06, 2013, 08:32:55 am »
Uh... guys? Are you there? May I remind you all of Twistedarcher's final words?

Tomorrow, let's all be more active. We need to set a soft deadline so we don't get so close to lynch again. Hopefully we will have more interactions left to try and find scum.

Lurking is NOT COOL right now. If you don't have much time, thats okay, but tell us.

Vote: Cuttlebone

23708

No, all ways of coming at it are equal.  A probability of being scum is the exact same as 1 minus the probability of being town.

You're saying they have a higher chance of being town...but you're not considering what that chance actually is.  Everyone has over a 50% chance of being town, because there are only 2 scum.  I'm calculating the probability they are both scum because that's the only ELIMINATED scenario.  i.e. they are both 1/90 more likely to be town. 

Probability you are town (from neutral observer) is 8/10-1/360
Probability head of table is town (from neutral observer) is 8/10 + 1/90.

Hopefully you'll agree that 1/360 is REALLY REALLY small.
Then essentially the head of table is 1/90 more likely to be town than you are.  That's pretty small (not entirely negligible...but small enough that I don't care).
You want to wager town's winning on that 1/90...I don't think that's a smart bet.

Also, one doctor has a ~2/10 chance to be scum. If we lynch them, we get an IC (the other doctor). So on one side we have a 2/10 chance to create an IC, on the other hand we have a 1/90 increased chance to ht scum. I would definitely take the IC chance over the increased scum-hitting likelihood, considering no other factors.

23709
Regardless of which plan we ultimately choose for the doctors, I think the worst would be to not give them instructions at all. This allows scum doctors to take the most use out of their role, and if both doctors are town, might easily lead to an accidental kill of the player who is thought most likely to be town.

And considering this ongoing fight about whether or not the doctors should be lynchable today: I think theorel has the maths on his side, and therefore me.

23710
Huh, sorry for being a little late here.

As for ashersky's plan: I had thought about it already. I think we should definitely use the doctors as vigs on D1, but I'm not so sure about the following days. That is because:
- from what I recall, having an odd number of players at the start of the day is better for town. We achieve that if we double-kill today.
- using the doctors as vigs D1 and D2 can lead to a situation where town has almost lost at the end of D2 (four town mislynchs + two scum kills = 2 scum, 2 town left - scum can at least force a draw)
- doctoring gets stronger later, as we are more likely to hit the actual scum target

Later, what we could consider is this: doctor A targets doctor B, doctor B targets a player of their choice. (this is a "fixed" version of sudgy's plan) That way, doc B can't just target doc A's target, all players except doc B have an equal chance to be doctored, and if there are two NKs, doc A is confirmed scum.

23711
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: September 05, 2013, 07:50:32 am »
The other thing to do is analyzing the votes from yesterday and the night kill.

So, the people who voted for Archetype are of course somewhat suspicious. I expect to find one of the scum team among them. So who voted for him? Me, TA, chairs, jon, Gveoniz. Well, I know I'm town, and we all know now TA was town. That leaves chairs, jon and Gveoniz.
jon's main reason for voting Arche was not to get lynched himself, so that doesn't say much about his alignment. chairs I think was one of the main reasons we lynched Arche over jon, which makes him somewhat suspicious - with his vote, the wagon on Arche reached the same size as that on jon. Gveoniz is suspicious because of his "is it okay if I hammer now?" questions. What they really seem to ask is: "Do I look scummy if I hammer now?", and that's a scum concern.

On the night kill: I guess taking out another vet is a reasonable thing for scum to do. But why TA over chairs? There was cearly more suspicion on TA during D1, and scum usually tries to kill the person with the least suspicion on them. Of course, the mafia might want to lure us into thinking just that, and that's something we have to keep in mind.

Concluding all this, I will Vote: chairs because I think he's the mos likely scum right now.

23712
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: September 05, 2013, 07:25:15 am »
At least we still have our PRs. This is actually not the worst thing that could have happened.

Well, now it's D2 and some of us have additional information. They should consider whether a claim can help town. I thought about it and here's what I think:

People who probably should claim:

- a Cop with a guilty result
We get to take out one mafia for sure. The cop will then probably be killed at night, but that's worth it.

- a Tracker who investigated someone and got the result "Twistedarcher"
If the Tracker found someone who targeted TA this night, that person must be scum. Therefore, this is the same as a "guilty" result for a cop.

- Mafia Goon/Mafia Roleblocker
This would really help town, you know?

People who can consider claiming:

- a Cop with an "innocent" result
This gives us two ICs. So we know the two mafia are among five players, and our chances of lynching scum increase to 40%. I'm not sure whether it's worth it, but I tend towards not claiming.

- the Bulletproof Townie
This gives us an IC that cannot be killed at night, so we have a 2/6 chance of lynching scum rather than a 2/7 chance. It also makes it likelier for our other PR to hit something at night (they know they need not target the IC). Downside is it also makes it easier for the mafia to kill our other PR.

People who should not claim:
- everyone else.

23713
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: September 03, 2013, 09:37:43 am »
If you're around until the deadline, you could wait for Arche to post. If not, I would say you should just hammer.

23714
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: September 02, 2013, 09:50:39 pm »
So it seems we'll have a jon or Archetype lynch today. Jdaki, Box - are you okay with putting your vote on one of them? There's not much time left.

Note that you should wait to cast your final vote. We want to at least give them a chance to claim.

23715
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: September 01, 2013, 02:38:10 pm »
Right now, I'd like to keep Box alive - not because I think he's town, but because I'd like to reread his posts here with the additional information we have on D2. I believe it'll be much easier to tell which side he is on then.

I'd prefer to lynch one of the lurkers - because they didn't contribute much, a reread on D2 won't be all that helpful here. Archetype's lurking is more suspicious to me because he's a vet and knows that this is not helping town. Also, he starts to contribute again at the exact moment someone votes for him, which seems scummy. So, my vote remains for now, but I would switch to jon if needed.

23716
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: September 01, 2013, 11:05:31 am »
chairs, could you explain your scum list? It's quite different from mine. Especially, what makes Gveoniz scummy and TA townie in your eyes?

Also, I will Vote: Archetype now. I don't like this heavy lurking short before the deadline.

23717
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 29, 2013, 07:12:36 pm »
So, the weekend is coming (and I won't have a lot of time for mafia then), and on tuesday we must have a decision. I thought I'd share my reads on everybody here, maybe this will get things moving a bit. So here it goes, from most scum to most town:

Twistedarcher: This is mostly due to early-game behaviour. First he states that there was nothing to say on the setup, but as soon as I come up with my BP idea, he immediately gives an elaborate counter-argument. So it's likely that he's thought this through before, and not sharing your thoughts with everyone is scum tell for me. Also, because he's a vet, I'm weighing every suspicion against him heavier.

jon117killer: Heavy lurking, and if he posts at all, he barely says anything. Now he advocates no-lynch, something we already have dismissed earlier.

BoxOfDOG: Right now, I'm rather tending light scum, but it's definitely not a strong suspicion. What speaks for him is that his posts were consistent - he didn't change his attitude when he realized it could get him lynched. That is something I'd expect scum to do.

Jdaki: I'm mostly basing this on his "ohmygod, I don't want to take a position because of what others might think of me"-post. But I can also see that coming from a newbie town player.

Archetype: Hasn't posted for quite some time, and before that, the only thing he did was pushing the BoxOfDOG wagon. Pretty much a null read for me, though I would expect a vet townie to take more of a leading position.

Cuttlebone: Has not posted much, but all his posts seem quite reasonable. I'd like to see him make a more serious vote, but there's still time for that.

chairs: Pretty much the same as with Cuttlebone, only has been more active. I also feel that him not jumping one of the existing wagons and instead making a new case is rather townie. TA's suspicion on him for not being sure whether mafia has daychat doesn't strike me as convincing.

Gveoniz: I really get a feeling that he's town, though it's hard to properly explain. Well, nothing he said sounded suspicious, and he's contributed a fair amount.

faust: You know what? I'm town.

23718
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 29, 2013, 04:17:59 pm »
no-lynch

Because we have no Idea who anybody is at this point.

Did you even read through this thread? We've already discussed a no-lynch, and it is pretty clear that it won't benefit town. If you have any new arguments on this, please share. Else I will judge your vote as quite scummy.

23719
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 28, 2013, 09:57:02 pm »
Gveoniz, you are currently not voting for anybody. As we're slowly approaching the deadline, could you make your vote?

Also, Cuttlebone's vote is still from RVS. Do you have any suspicions on chairs or did you just forget to unvote?

And jon117killer, if your vote for TA was serious, you should probably make it bold, because otherwise it won't be counted. And while you're at it, could you state your reasons for this vote?

I feel like now everyone should vote for someone (except if you still believe no-lynch is a good idea - does anyone do that?) Being too careful about your vote is something I start seeing as scummy now, you are giving us nothing to analyze for the next day.

23720
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 28, 2013, 09:48:03 am »
The main reason that I'm not voting Box over Twistedarcher is that I'd prefer to lynch a vet today.

This is why: The mafia is more dangerous for us if there are experienced players in it. The worst-case scenario is two vets are scum (pretty unlikely). Having 1 vet and 1 newb is much likelier, and not much better for us; the vet can tell the newb how to act during the night, and it's almost as bad as having two mafia vets.

In both scenarios, taking out a vet could really help us. Should the mafia consist of two newbs, we can afford the mislynch.

In short, I'm suggesting some sort of Minimax strategy (see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimax)

23721
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 28, 2013, 09:11:03 am »
Part of me wants to lynch the vets first on account of longer playtime for you new folks'd be mighty nice.

The bigger part wants to see what we can do about making town win.

vote: faust.

Faust, you've been quick to come to Box's rescue, even if only via "hey it's statistics man." Maybe you're feeling guilty because you know he's town, or maybe you just want the towncred for being right on a mislynch.  Either way, sniff test says:  scummy.

Oh, I didn't mean to come to anyone's rescue. Should we decide to lynch Box today, I'm fine with that. His posts definitely read scummier than most of the other's. I just want to talk a little about the other players.

Being fine with lynching Box is a different viewpoint than what you had earlier, when you thought he was town.

There were a couple of Box posts between me saying he was townie and now. I didn't like the way he reacted to my defense at all - buddying up with me (in fact putting me as the most likely town player) and at the same time following my vote. It just seems like a thing mafia would do to gain my trust. Because of that, my read on him is scummier than before.

23722
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 27, 2013, 07:28:22 pm »
Although on reading all the posts, my first thoughts were "why is faust defending BoxofDOG? Isn't that suspicious?" I then realise that if I say that, it seems like I'm defending TA, though I do feel like I should as I can't see that he was "pushing" anything against Box- if anything it was Archetype (and me) that found fault in his posts. But now it really seems like I'm in cahoots with TA by saying faust might be in league with Box and man this game is giving me a headache!

Why are you caring so much about what we could think of you? Someone might say that's a rather scummy trait...

(I hope I didn't cause your headache to grow stronger with this  ;))

23723
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 27, 2013, 07:25:51 pm »
Part of me wants to lynch the vets first on account of longer playtime for you new folks'd be mighty nice.

The bigger part wants to see what we can do about making town win.

vote: faust.

Faust, you've been quick to come to Box's rescue, even if only via "hey it's statistics man." Maybe you're feeling guilty because you know he's town, or maybe you just want the towncred for being right on a mislynch.  Either way, sniff test says:  scummy.

Oh, I didn't mean to come to anyone's rescue. Should we decide to lynch Box today, I'm fine with that. His posts definitely read scummier than most of the other's. I just want to talk a little about the other players.

23724
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 27, 2013, 02:07:01 pm »
Yeah, I didn't mean that Box is any likelier to be town than the rest of us. But it's still only a 2/9 chance.

23725
Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)
« on: August 27, 2013, 11:22:07 am »
All this talk about whether or not BoxOfDOG is mafia or not is leading us nowhere. He might be, but if so, I highly doubt that we'll get any evidence on that. It's pretty likely however that he is town. If so, we spend an awful lot of time focusing on a single town member. This is exactly the kind of thing the mafia likes to see: We discuss about BoxOfDOG the whole time, then eventually lynch him, he flips town, and at D2, there's not much to analyze - we didn't get any closer to finding the real scum.

I still like my vote on Twistedarcher. He was the main force pushing this whole BoxOfDOG thing. That, together with his early-game behaviour, says scum for me.

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