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Messages - UmbrageOfSnow

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2976
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 08:09:06 pm »
I get the impression most people bitching about this haven't actually bothered to read what the plan was.

Actively pushing for worse town play seem stupid to me.  I don't find it scummy because it just seems angry and lazy more than evil, but it is definitely not helpful.

2977
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 08:06:54 pm »
after saying in a post D1 to one of these crazy ass plans that he would hide behind me.  Also of note, in that game, Eevee would not have died for hiding behind a vig.  In this one, the hider does.

...

So, again, Hider plans do NOTHING but help SCUM KILL THE HIDER.

The flavorname plan?  None of you realize that scum know 3/13 flavornames already?

Okay, first I don't get why this plan is so crazy, it's simple and efficient and seems to be the closest to the optimal play we've come up with.  Hider is useless if town have no way to find out who they hid behind when they died!

Why is this crazy?

How does this help scum kill the Hider?

So they know 3 people (out of 13!) that the Hider will NOT hide behind, that hardly seems helpful to them.

2978
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 07:58:52 pm »
As far as both the "giving scum advice" criticism and the general criticisms of theory talk, I think we should keep Kerckhoffs's principle in mind: "The enemy knows the system."

More specifically, it only makes sense to assume that Mafia are as smart as town.  Given this, anything we can figure out, they can figure out.  Discussing it does not help them unless we are counting on them making mistakes, which seems like a good way to lose (it certainly is in any other game, from chess to Dominion to real-life espionage.)  It does allow us to talk these things through, think them out, and prepare for the worst.  To my mind, we have a better chance at outsmarting scum by talking things through as a group.  If you don't like reading me talking a lot, tough luck!

2979
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 07:44:29 pm »
You all realize we can just TELL the trackerlante which one to choose TONIGHT given the CHOICE is MADE on N1? 
It's as if that is exactly what we were discussing!

Quote
As for all that Hider talk, I'm anti Hider talk, and won't do it.
So wait, you won't agree to the plan we seem to have going?  Regardless of whether you want to get into talking about it, yes/no do you think it is a good plan?

Also, why is RVS a requirement for scumhunting?  People keep saying this, but I don't understand why that should be true.

2980
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 07:35:25 pm »
Either your wilfully misrepresenting me for some reason or you didn't read (most likely, but I don't get why you quoted it then).  It just seems to me like we should minimize false positives and I don't get why you're angry about that.

You're!

2981
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 07:34:09 pm »
Yeah, so Tracker suspects Hider, Psycho-Detective (I love this name).
Psychologist suspects Vigilante.
Hider causes us to suspect Vigilante.

There is a lot of inter-town suspicion there.
Good point.  From this point out, I refuse to vote for any of my scumreads, as they are likely town.
That isn't even remotely what I was saying!  It was a benefits to the rest of the roles based on what the Tracker/Vigilante decides to choose.  Either your wilfully misrepresenting me for some reason or you didn't read (most likely, but I don't get why you quoted it then).  It just seems to me like we should minimize false positives and I don't get why you're angry about that.

Quote from: shraeye
Seems like the general method is "talk about nonsense until someone slips up or "slips up".  Why not make it potentially useful nonsense, or at least nonsense that many of us find interesting?
Unfortunately, this is our normal method and it's terrible.  But not as terrible as "talking about theory until someone slips up", because theory-talk has virtually no bearing on alignment.  The best method is to vote for people.  Watch this:
Vote: liopoil
Now let's sit back and watch this wagon take off.  Seriously, I expect at least 4 other votes in the next day.

Well this may very well work, but as I explained, I don't see why it would be any better, or why you two are so angry about talking about theory.  I think he runs a wonderful website  :P

2982
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 06:57:16 pm »
My big hesitation about liopoli's plan is that some people may lurk and not post lists, the more complicated this is, the more likely that is.  Every townie lurker increases the odds of Mafie deducing who the real Hider is.

2983
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 06:56:24 pm »
Your plan is certainly easier to execute, and mine isn't very practical at all. I think mine will produce better results though.

I will say though, that I think either of our plans are much better than just doing nothing.

I agree with both of these statements.

2984
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 06:55:25 pm »
No, no, no!!  It is not worth discussing!  All that's going to come of discussing the vig/tracker who should do what and who they should listen to is 6 more pages of impossible to reread materials.  Snow, what do you hope to glean from this discussion?  How do you feel it will help you form reads on players later in the game?
This:
I want us to come to a consensus so that we know whether we have to worry about false-positives from hider-death or psychologist/detective.

And this:
it doesn't help us form reads. HOWEVER, it does let us get a better use out of our PRs. Without our PRs, scum has a much better chance of winning that we do. Town's best chance of victory is to have successful PR use. So we should do whatever we can to maximize their chance of providing a benefit to town.

I don't understand why you think discussing our larger-scale gameplans is pointless?  Skilled Mafia would presumably have a larger gameplan, if we categorically refuse to discuss such things, it seems like unnecessarily handing an organizational advantage to scum.

Additionally, my understand of "RVS" and the like is that it's a way to get people talking so that there is something to get reads off of.  But from what I've seen (keeping in mind that I've only read 1.5 games here) this mostly leads to people voting for stupid reasons, even once they are out of the acknowledged stupid-reason-voting-stage.  Talking about how best to use our power roles, the things we should be thinking about in the long-run of the setup, etc seems like it would serve equally well to get people talking, but might potentially also have things people could have real positions on.  I don't know that it would necessarily be any better for catching scum, but I don't see how it could possibly be worse, and I do see how it could hypothetically be better, I'm just not sure that it really is.  Still seems like a winner to me.

Also, it's just a lot more interesting of a discussion for me than voting for Raerae because I don't trust anyone with that many vowels in their name (because my grandfather was Welsh).  I don't see how that helps us scumhunt either, and I'm not sure what else I should be doing when, quite frankly, there is nothing especially scummy about anyone as far as I can tell yet.

Seems like the general method is "talk about nonsense until someone slips up or "slips up".  Why not make it potentially useful nonsense, or at least nonsense that many of us find interesting?

2985
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 06:43:05 pm »
UmbrageOfSnow's plan has 1 problem: the hider's night action is essentially random, not based of night actions. The hider could be forced to hide behind someone who he wouldn't otherwise because they are either very scummy or a likely NK choice.
I agree that this is the flaw in the plan.  I pointed that out in one of the earlier posts, I do think allowing the Hider to target whomever he or she wants gives it a bit more power, but I don't have any great ideas of how to arrange that and still be able to allow everyone to back-calculate ALL their targets after they died.  I think the confirmed townies are almost as important as the confirmed scum, although others don't seem to value that as much, it really would make process of elimination more powerful.

That said, I've come to think that random picks probably aren't a bad thing either, as long as we can figure out who the random picks were after the fact.

Quote
Similarly, what if the hider's flavor name corresponds to the player we lynch today? Or what if it corresponds to themself?

This is a silly objection.  Twice in my initial explanation I said that the Hider should skip themself.  Likewise, skipping the lynched player, other dead players later on, and already confirmed town (if it somehow got all the way around to that, although I can't see how the game could possibly go on that long) should be pretty obvious.  It's not really a flaw in the plan at all.

Quote
Here is what I think we should do, this can be organized during our long twilight, or right before the hammer:

Each player makes a list of the 11 other players who aren't them self or the player we lynch today, from best player to hide behind to worst player to hide behind, for them self only if they are the hider. They can even make two lists, one if the player flips town, another if they flip scum. Then they ONLY look at the 3 or 4 people at the top of their list. Then they take their flavor-name-number, (for instance, Mr. Green is #7), and they go to the player list, and starting from their number, go down until they get one of the players at the top of their list. hide behind that player.

This makes it so the hider hides behind a decent hiding target, without giving scum too much info on who is going to be hid behind.

This is a bit complicated, but I think it's our best option.

I actually like this plan, and I'd be totally fine with it.  It is a bit more work for people to post lists though, and the important thing is that we need EVERY player to post a list in that case, because any player not doing so seems less likely to be the hider, reducing the possibilities for mafia to guess who they should target.  It does also make it a bit easier for Mafia to guess who the Hider is hiding behind and kill that person if they have a few guesses as to who the hider might be, especially if they narrow it down to a few people who have the same few people in the tops of their list.

I like my plan better, but I'd be perfectly willing to go with yours, I think it definitely has merit and we shouldn't avoid good plans on the basis of being complicated.

2986
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 06:31:51 pm »
We should consider choosing what the tracker/vig chooses, and if we decide vig, then maybe choose who they vig too.

I agree that this is worth discussing, although I'm not certain we should come to a decision-by-consensus on it, give the player the freedom to choose what he thinks is best.  But it certainly seems at least worth talking about.  I know if I were the Tracker/Vigilante, I'd choose Tracker, I believe I outlined my case for this earlier, but essentially it
1) makes Hider/Psychologist inherently better by avoiding the false positive they'd both get from Vigilante.
2) allows me to be the one with the most potentially flawed information, which if we're aware of this and have a smart Tracker/Vigilante player, should be something they can work around (by being less certain of their own information, but still taking it into account because it will be true more often than not, just not a sure thing.)  Since we've already discussed this in thread, I would hope any player who picked Tracker would be well aware of this possibility.

Why do you think Vigilante would be a better choice?

2987
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 03:36:08 pm »
If I had to have a scumread it would be on raerae for refusing to work with any kind of plan, since that denies town information, but I gather from your responses that that's pretty standard for raerae.

2988
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 03:34:02 pm »
For what it's worth, I took what Jimmmm said as a joke, I laughed at it anyway.  I suppose that isn't really worth anything of course, and we have nothing else to go on.  Only thing I'm sure of is that communism is a red herring.

2989
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 02:46:27 pm »
Well that, and that it seems the most straightforward "one and only one" link could be that The Cop was the Detective, (although I'm hoping Yuma came up with something more clever) but if it is something like that, it seems like a flavor claim would be a good way to out our power roles more than anything beneficial.

I suppose Mr. Boddy could be scum or something, but I know I wouldn't be comfortable voting on that level of thing.  I think flavorclaiming is a bad idea, and this plan makes it a worse idea, but it never would have been a good one to begin with.

2990
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Coup I
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:58:53 pm »
And no one can block or challenge income anyway, right?

2991
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:52:44 pm »
Oooh. So if I'm the hider, I'd hide behind Eevee is I was Mr. Green (skipping one player, Shraeye), I'd hide behind Voltaire if I was Col. MUstard, and so on?

I do like this plan.


That could work too, although it has troubles if the Hider is The Singing Telegram Girl.  It is harder for Mafia to analyze results of though, so that might have some more merit.  I was thinking more just that Mr. Green would hide behind Robz, Col. Mustard would hide behind raerae, etc.  But yeah, yours is more secure in that we give Mafia a lot less to go on.

13 is prime, so we don't have to worry about divisibility.  So yeah, let's say if TA were Mr. Green, then TA should hide behind Eevee night 1, me night 2, etc. and if he were The Singing Telegram Girl he would hide behind Shareye, but on night 2 we need another system, so maybe the Singing Telegram Girl skips 1 the first night, 2 the second night, etc.


Yeah nevermind, let's just go with what I said the first time, easy to explain, not that easy to analyze.

2992
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:51:06 pm »
Oooh. So if I'm the hider, I'd hide behind Eevee is I was Mr. Green (skipping one player, Shraeye), I'd hide behind Voltaire if I was Col. MUstard, and so on?

I do like this plan.


That could work too, although it has troubles if the Hider is The Singing Telegram Girl.  It is harder for Mafia to analyze results of though, so that might have some more merit.  I was thinking more just that Mr. Green would hide behind Robz, Col. Mustard would hide behind raerae, etc.  But yeah, yours is more secure in that we give Mafia a lot less to go on.

13 is prime, so we don't have to worry about divisibility.  So yeah, let's say if TA were Mr. Green, then TA should hide behind Eevee night 1, me night 2, etc. and if he were The Singing Telegram Girl he would hide behind Shareye, but on night 2 we need another system, so maybe the Singing Telegram Girl skips 1 the first night, 2 the second night, etc.

2993
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:39:16 pm »
Correction: they aren't alphabetized but that wouldn't matter.

1. Mr. Green
2. Col. Mustard
3. Prof. Plum
4. The Cook
5. Yvette the Maid
6. Wadsworth the Butler
7. Miss Scarlet
8. Mrs. White
9. Mrs. Peacock
10. Mr. Boddy
11. The Cop
12. The Mechanic
13. The Singing Telegram Girl

Player Roster
1. Robz
2. raerae
3. liopoil
4. twistedarcher
5. shraeye
6. Eevee
7. Voltaire
8. UmbrageOfSnow
9. Jimmmm
10. nkirbit
11. chairs
12. mcmcsalot
13. ashersky

So you can match up your number to the one to investigate and increment each round, skipping yourself.  Back calculable, distributes evenly, only problem is over several nights scum can start deducing where they would have been based on flavor names and names of revealed people to narrow it down, but I think this extends that horizon quite a bit.

2994
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:35:29 pm »

Though make sure it doesn't run afoul of this rule:

1. Bold, brown text is reserved for the Mod.  No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
Not actual cryptography in any way, just an idea from there (I like math.)

We each have a unique flavor name.  The list of possibilities is known, so this isn't entirely proof against analysis, but it would be very tough.  We come up with some system based on our flavor names as the person whom the Hider should hide behind.  Then, when the hider dies and we learn their flavor name, we can back calculate who it would be.  It shouldn't be game breaking because scum could also do the same calculation on all the flavor names they don't have and could still find where the best odds are the same way as before, but it should be resistant to the same type of analysis you get from checking off who changed their vote, because they could only learn that, say, the Hider is not Mr. Green or whatever, which is much less useful to them.

Easy example: The flavor names are alphabetized in the first post.  We could all agree that the Hider should look at what number they are in the first post, and pick that number on the /in list to investigate, incrementing by one each night.  Skip yourself.

2995
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:29:34 pm »
Please don't reference ongoing games
Oh, and be nice :)

Sorry  :-[

2996
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:26:25 pm »
I just realized, this is like a cryptography sort of problem.  We know that the enemy will always know our plans, so what about something approaching the way a public-key works?

We all have a piece of information that no one else has: our Flavor-name!  This is revealed upon death.  If we can come up with some way so that the Hider can use their flavor name to pick who to hide behind, that information is public after death, but it doesn't give the mafia any hints!

2997
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:07:47 pm »

Cons:  The chances of a two-kill night increase, especially after night1.  The mafia immediately gain information about who they should target N1 (for example, it's unlikely that they will target someone hiding behind them.  Or maybe they would.  But they do get information that allows them to further aim their kill.)  The other thing is, after N1 when any player hiding behind a mafia member turns up alive, the mafia immediately know that all of those players are not the hider.  So each night, this plan gets much, much worse as the mafia get more information.

If the hider doesn't hit scum, which is fairly likely, scum have a list of players they can safely target to kill for the next few nights.  Part of the utility of hider is that it has the possibility of causing a no-lynch.  This utility decreases from the plan, because the mafia gets a list of targets who they know are not hiders.  But, the hider gets the utility of being able to "report" who killed them, so that trade-off may be worth it.

This plan also gets worse and worse as the days go on.  Night1, the mafia have no idea who is a hider or who isn't, so they don't have any more chance of hitting the hidee then they would normally.  But Night2, they do know some players who can't be the hiders, so they have more a of chance of successfully hitting the hidee.

That is an extremely good point, particularly the underlined part.  Maybe that's how those other games failed?

So how can we take away the ability of Mafia to make a big chart and narrow down the Hider by process of elimination?  We could make it a lot harder by having each person list TWO people they would hide behind, so if they die, we narrow it down to one of two?  Any other ideas?

2998
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:01:45 pm »
So, yeah, I can see what Robz and Raerae are saying about planning this making it easy for scum to 2-for-1 the Hider and whomever they hide behind, I kind of said the same thing, but it still seems like we should have some kind of plan.  If the Hider just hides behind their biggest scum read and no one says anything, don't they just die without getting us anywhere?

2999
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 01:00:15 pm »
The people reading the spectator comments on Innovation already know this, but I've been following along with that game (and Back to Basics) while waiting for this one to fill up.  I wanted to figure out how the site worked, what people were like, etc.

Figure I should maybe actually say that rather than just implying it.

3000
Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« on: July 12, 2013, 12:52:35 pm »
Oh um RVS, that's right.

Um, Vote: Umbrage for making too much sense for a newbie. Obviously has vets whispering in his ear telling him what to say.

Oh shit!  I've broken my meta as a newb.  Let's try this again.

GUIZ, I HAVE THE SCUM TEAM NARROWED DOWN TO EXACTLY 3 PLAYERS, BUT I'M NOT GOING TO SAY WHO UNTIL WE MASSCLAIM!!!  BUT JUST TRUST ME AND WE CAN SOLVE THIS GAME BY DAY 2 WITH MY SECRET PLAN!

(Was that mean?)

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