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3776
Source

Quote from: Donald X.
As I usually tell people who want to show me cards, the obvious ideas are obvious to me too, and I had a big head start. For example Richard Garfield suggested 3 cards while he was playtesting Seaside. One was already in a set and has survived; one was already in a set but currently isn't in one although I have an idea for fixing it up. The third card was the reaction that reflects the attack, which I had had suggested so many times that I had already written up an essay on why it doesn't work.

* * *

The problem with defenses that attack is that, in 4-player games, there's a 1-to-3 ratio that goes the wrong way relative to the buying decision.

Let's consider 3 cards:

- Point Eater. An attack that makes each other player lose 1 point. There's no Curse card involved; we'll track these points on a scoring track. I'm doing this to keep the analysis simple.
- Revenge. When another player plays an attack card, reveal this to make them lose 1 point. It doesn't stop the attack. It only works for you once per attack, one way or another.
- Moat. As-is.

I am just considering 4-player games here, which is where the problem is at its worst.

I play Point Eater. Each other player is down a point. Or, from my perspective, I'm up a point.

You Moat my Point Eater. For you, that's worth a point - you were going to lose a point, but now you don't. For me, that's -1/3 points. I make two out of three opponents lose a point, which is roughly 2/3 of a point of a benefit. It's rough because, who knows, maybe two of the players suck and I only care about the other one; if that one Moats I break even and if they don't I'm up a point. But in general, it's not like that; I am more or less still up 2/3 of a point when just one player Moats. So again: The person who decided to buy Moat makes a point here - they would have been down a point but are not - and the person who decided to buy Point Eater is still up 2/3 of a point after the Moat. Both cards still reward their players for buying them.

You Revenge my Point Eater. For you, that's worth 1/3 of a point - one out of your three opponents lost a point. For me, the entire benefit of my attack is gone - I break even rather than being up a point. The person who decided to buy Revenge just got 1/3 of a point of benefit; the person who bought Point Eater got nothing. Revenge is a weak investment and Point Eater is horrible. Of course if this means no-one buys Point Eaters then Revenge is useless.

See, it's this 1-to-3 ratio. In the wrong direction.

We could make Revenge three times as powerful - the attacker loses 3 points. Then playing Revenge is worth a point, like playing Moat. Being on the receiving end means losing 2 points net. Attacking is really unattractive in this situation, while defending is just as good as it is with Moat. It's even worse if, as in this example, Revenge is cumulative. Everyone else Revenges and you end up down 8 points. If everyone had Moated, you would have broken even.

Or, we could make Revenge one third as powerful - the attacker loses 1/3 of a point. Then being on the receiving end is just like having your attack Moated - you are back to getting 2/3 of a point for your attack. Playing Revenge is pointless though - you are only up 1/9 of a point. You could make the rest of the card good enough that this was playable, but you would completely ignore the defensive part when deciding whether or not to buy this.

So that's the deal. You can't fix the problem by tweaking the cost of Revenge; you still have the bad ratio. The one thing you can do is change the ratio; for example, Revenge could make every opponent lose a point whenever any opponent attacked. Then it's an attack that your opponents have to enable. Which is not necessarily out of the question, but isn't super sexy.

3777
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: What would you like to see in Dominion?
« on: June 17, 2011, 04:43:03 pm »
This is Donald X.'s reasoning:

Quote from: Donald X.
As I usually tell people who want to show me cards, the obvious ideas are obvious to me too, and I had a big head start. For example Richard Garfield suggested 3 cards while he was playtesting Seaside. One was already in a set and has survived; one was already in a set but currently isn't in one although I have an idea for fixing it up. The third card was the reaction that reflects the attack, which I had had suggested so many times that I had already written up an essay on why it doesn't work.

* * *

The problem with defenses that attack is that, in 4-player games, there's a 1-to-3 ratio that goes the wrong way relative to the buying decision.

Let's consider 3 cards:

- Point Eater. An attack that makes each other player lose 1 point. There's no Curse card involved; we'll track these points on a scoring track. I'm doing this to keep the analysis simple.
- Revenge. When another player plays an attack card, reveal this to make them lose 1 point. It doesn't stop the attack. It only works for you once per attack, one way or another.
- Moat. As-is.

I am just considering 4-player games here, which is where the problem is at its worst.

I play Point Eater. Each other player is down a point. Or, from my perspective, I'm up a point.

You Moat my Point Eater. For you, that's worth a point - you were going to lose a point, but now you don't. For me, that's -1/3 points. I make two out of three opponents lose a point, which is roughly 2/3 of a point of a benefit. It's rough because, who knows, maybe two of the players suck and I only care about the other one; if that one Moats I break even and if they don't I'm up a point. But in general, it's not like that; I am more or less still up 2/3 of a point when just one player Moats. So again: The person who decided to buy Moat makes a point here - they would have been down a point but are not - and the person who decided to buy Point Eater is still up 2/3 of a point after the Moat. Both cards still reward their players for buying them.

You Revenge my Point Eater. For you, that's worth 1/3 of a point - one out of your three opponents lost a point. For me, the entire benefit of my attack is gone - I break even rather than being up a point. The person who decided to buy Revenge just got 1/3 of a point of benefit; the person who bought Point Eater got nothing. Revenge is a weak investment and Point Eater is horrible. Of course if this means no-one buys Point Eaters then Revenge is useless.

See, it's this 1-to-3 ratio. In the wrong direction.

We could make Revenge three times as powerful - the attacker loses 3 points. Then playing Revenge is worth a point, like playing Moat. Being on the receiving end means losing 2 points net. Attacking is really unattractive in this situation, while defending is just as good as it is with Moat. It's even worse if, as in this example, Revenge is cumulative. Everyone else Revenges and you end up down 8 points. If everyone had Moated, you would have broken even.

Or, we could make Revenge one third as powerful - the attacker loses 1/3 of a point. Then being on the receiving end is just like having your attack Moated - you are back to getting 2/3 of a point for your attack. Playing Revenge is pointless though - you are only up 1/9 of a point. You could make the rest of the card good enough that this was playable, but you would completely ignore the defensive part when deciding whether or not to buy this.

So that's the deal. You can't fix the problem by tweaking the cost of Revenge; you still have the bad ratio. The one thing you can do is change the ratio; for example, Revenge could make every opponent lose a point whenever any opponent attacked. Then it's an attack that your opponents have to enable. Which is not necessarily out of the question, but isn't super sexy.

3778
I would say it counters Minion quite well.  But also:

Do Moat and Lighthouse too effectively counter all attacks as to make them useless as attacks?
Does Watchtower too effectively counter Mountebank?

etc...

Sure, you get to draw an extra card with the Horse Traders, but that means in a multiplayer game, it can't "react" again for the remainder of the round.  So if I'm player A, and B plays a Minion, I discard my Horse Traders, but it doesn't do much when C plays his...
The difference is that Horse Traders is actually useful, whereas Moat, Lighthouse, and Watchtower, for the most part, represent bad cards that you have voluntarily taken on in order to avoid even worse cards.

3779
Feedback / Re: Player Rankings
« on: June 17, 2011, 02:49:45 pm »
The way the CR profile linking thingamajigger works is because it's easy to enclose your profile field in HTML:
Code: [Select]
<A HREF="http://councilroom.com/player?player={INPUT}>{INPUT}</A>
Displaying rank, level, or W/L is more difficult, and opens the door to some conceivable nasty script injection.  But I'll look into it.

3780
Puzzles and Challenges / Re: When do you need a plural for Diadem?
« on: June 17, 2011, 02:46:56 pm »
I'll look into it (it requires an installation of a mod).  For now, you can make do with making the text really small: like so.

3781
Puzzles and Challenges / When do you need a plural for Diadem?
« on: June 17, 2011, 01:52:17 pm »
Alert followers of the dominionstats code base at github might have noticed this odd commit comment:

"card_list.js      added plural for diadem [rrenaud]"

Turns out an Isotropic game log mentioned "Diadems", and it led to an error, so rrenaud had to include a plural for Diadems in the card list.

Challenge: Why was Diadem pluralized?  Under what circumstance did an Isotropic game log spit that out? 

(Note: the answer is NOT "There was a user with the name "'Diadems'.")

3784
Feedback / Re: Isotropic username links
« on: June 17, 2011, 01:33:58 pm »
Use only your primary username.  CouncilRoom will thank you for sticking to one Isotropic name as well :)

Theoretically, I could maybe regexp the field to split on commas, but then what if someone has a username with a comma in it?  What about the dude that used an ASCII penis as his username and broke CouncilRoom's parser?  rrenaud would actually probably just ban him immediately out of anger, but you get the idea.

3785
Rules Questions / Re: Who goes first?
« on: June 17, 2011, 01:16:46 pm »
I'd like to see it switched to just a random player goes first.  It discourages re-matches since the winner knows they're definitely going second vs a... dunno 1/4 to 1/3 chance of going first if they play somebody else.  And other weird matching effects.
From what I understand, dougz goes to great lengths to make sure Isotropic plays by the Dominion rules as written.  And them's the rules: player who just won goes last.

3786
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: What would you like to see in Dominion?
« on: June 17, 2011, 01:15:12 pm »
There are lots of problems outside just strategical impact.  People hate getting their stuff trashed.  It leads to AP as people hesitate over whether or not to play their attacks.  Kingmaking can happen if you choose not to trigger it on some people.

The point isn't that "reactions that trash attacks are bad", it's you shouldn't make a Reaction card that makes attackers really hesitate about playing their attacks out of fear of it backfiring, not just having no effect.

3788
The card I hate above all else is Torturer.  It's a powerful card that leads to really unfun games if your opponent gets his/her chain off first, and I'm actually very bad at constructing Torturer chains, so that happens a lot.

I feel the same way about Ghost Ship.
But Ghost Ship does not stack.

3789
I am fine with all those cards, though Possession is a little *annoying* with King's Court out.

I actually really like Smugglers.  It helps alleviate the Turn 5 Wins that I loathe so much. 

I am OK with Treasure Map because the only people who buy it without support are bad enough that their chances of hitting the Maps are tiny.

I'm generally OK with Swindler, though I can see why people hate it.  Ditto for Tournament.

The cards I dislike most:

1. Familiar.  This card can be reworded to read: After Turn 2, roll 1d6.  If you roll 2 or lower, you lose, unless your opponent also rolled 2 or lower.

2. Scrying Pool/Golem.  Games take forever!

3. King's Court, when coupled with attacks.

4. Torturer with cheap +Actions.

5. Baron, since the 33% chance of not hitting your Estate is the difference between Gold and a crap $4 buy.

3790
It occasionally has problems for me too, but if I refresh the page (after copying my post, of course) it goes away.

3791
Dominion Articles / Re: Combo: Native Village & Bridge
« on: June 17, 2011, 08:53:41 am »
That is quite fascinating.  I tried Native Village/Stash once, which worked out surprisingly well too, but this seems to have the advantage of using the Bridges for the +Buy needed for the NV's.

3792
Game Reports / Re: Bureaucrat Success!
« on: June 17, 2011, 08:47:24 am »
I'm happy with bureaucrats and explorers. I don't use them very often at all, but when I do they're typically strong and do well. I also think people underestimate the bag of gold prize and trading posts.
He speaketh the truth:

DG's baseline winning rate: 1.36 ± 0.04
Win rate given Bcrat, Explorer avail: 1.44 ± 0.13, 1.38 ± 0.13
Frequency gaining Bcrat, Explorer when avail: 21.7%, 33.2%
Win rate with: 1.51 ± 0.29, 1.45 ± 0.22
Win rate without: 1.42 ± 0.14   ,    1.33 ± 0.16   
Effect with: 2.24, 1.37
Effect without: 0.07,   -0.53

3793
Rules Questions / Re: Who goes first?
« on: June 17, 2011, 08:43:39 am »
This is quite interesting.  I wonder if WanderingWinder might have been asking a slightly different question: i.e., if I am of level X and I play 100 games against someone of level X +/- delta, how many do I need to win in order to keep my current level?  Or are these two questions the same?

3794
Based on http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/, if you substitute Potion for Chapel, the odds should be about 1.8+0.3+15.9+16.6 = 34.6% that you don't draw $3P on Turn 3 or Turn 4 if you opened Potion/Silver.

3795
Game Reports / Re: University of City-building
« on: June 16, 2011, 11:53:57 pm »
I think University/City would work only if there are other good terminals (e.g., Swindler or Monument or Wharf) or if you couldn't consistently hit $5 for some reason (e.g., Mountebank).  Otherwise, is it that much faster than just buying the Cities directly?

3796
This topic is a bit like: "What if Ambassador also gave you +$3?  What if Grand Market was worth 4VP each?"  If anything, Masquerade should be nerfed instead of boosted.

I do think it is interesting to look in the Secret Histories to see what cards used to be ridiculously overpowered.  King's Court, for instance, used to cost $5...

3797
Council Room Feedback / Re: New Method to Rate Cards?
« on: June 16, 2011, 11:45:56 pm »
You can measure an asymmetric Win Rate With, i.e., Win Rate When I Got It And You Don't.  This can sort of be derived by comparing Win Rate With, Win Rate Without, and the % gained.

3798
Rules Questions / Re: Who goes first?
« on: June 16, 2011, 11:44:01 pm »
To be fair, most 40+ won't even play < level 20, so I think Frisk is a little more generous than most in even playing most level <20's.  It's rough to take the chance and play a level 9 who maybe isn't that good but has sure studied CouncilRoom and whacks you silly with a KC Mountebank on Turn 7.

The true way to game this is every time you win, play against an unregged player, resign immediately, then play regular games as P1.  But then you have a very ugly councilroom record...

3799
Dominion Articles / Re: Hunting Party
« on: June 16, 2011, 11:41:52 pm »
As I wrote in the article (that is appearing in ~20 min), and was mentioned earlier in the thread, you gotta compare it to Lab.  I think HP is way better than Lab if you have a mixed HP/Village/Goons deck, because you aren't going to be able to play those extra Goons unless you have +Actions, and if you do, well, why not just play the +Actions and then play the Goons and then the Hunting Party to hunt down your other Goons?

3800
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Popular Buys Analysis
« on: June 16, 2011, 11:39:45 pm »
You can still always look at "Win Rate With" if you want a more direct number than "Effect With", which is much more nuanced.

But you're right: KC and Mountebank tend to be a little more chaotic, and it's difficult to get win rates far above 1.00.

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