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Dominion Articles / Re: Shelters
« on: January 08, 2013, 02:36:08 pm »The player who saves his Hovel has just as much junk as you do until that first Province buy - then he has less. Now, if you can think you can make a really quick three-pile ending before your opponent has a chance to pick up any Provinces, then Hoveling an Estate might be a good idea, as winning 1-0 is still winning. But, how often will such situations arise?
This if faulty logic... it makes the assumption that you will always have Hovel in hand when you buy your first Province. That's not very likely, unless you are building a deck-drawing engine. In a game without much drawing, to buy a Province with Hovel in hand means you got to $8 using only 4 cards... it's much more likely that you can get to $8 with 5 cards than it is with just 4 cards.
I'm definitely not saying that I know for sure that buying an Estate on 5/2 isn't usually the wrong move... it very well might be. But you definitely can't assume that you'll have the chance to trash it on a Province buy later on. I remember this being discussed at great length in another thread, and I thought that there was still no consensus; with a lot of people making good arguments on both sides.
I think wero's logic is an abridged version of what he meant to say. The classic argument (from the old Hovel thread, which I remember as ending in a fairly strong consensus) is that at SOME point you will get to buy a Province or some other victory card and trash the Hovel without really going out of your way. It might not be on your first Province buy; that part is an oversimplification. But experience seems to show that it will usually happen well before the stage of the game when you would welcome a bonus Estate, which is the relevant question.
Also, and this should probably go in the article unless it's considered too obvious, mixed-type Victory cards are great with Hovel as they can be bought much earlier and more reliably than Province even on a Hovel turn. Island, for instance, almost doubles its effectiveness if it trashes a Hovel for free.