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Messages - ipofanes

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1976
So, I assume, it's generally wise to do this, if possible.

As Watno said, not always.

For instance, in the parallel game I am not seeding events at the moment as I am afraid to unlock a Free Religion/Warrior with no unused worker.

Sometimes, however, I really want to push events when I have seeded Iconoclasm and want it to hit that pesky Marco Polo James Cook with his five territories over there.

1977
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: December 10, 2012, 06:49:45 am »
What does the X stand for?
It's a variable. The unknown.

DXV also reads as 5:15, a great song by The Who.

1978
General Discussion / Re: Fantasy (American) football?
« on: December 10, 2012, 06:03:02 am »
That would be American football. I do like soccer, but not as much as football. (Fantasy soccer does exist, but I don't think you can join proper leagues where you draft players.)

Ok I'll pass then, my knowledge of American football is probably too limited!

(there are thousands of fantasy leagues for all major sports, both free and charging. Not quite sure why people are seeming thinking it's limited to just specific sports!)

Well, fantasy football holds a very unique place in American culture, something I don't think fantasy soccer possibly replicates in the UK or any other country.

I'd be down for it.

United http://www.oberfoul.kopfball.org/fm/fm_ligasystem.php (fantasy players, though) was big before internet became known in the general public. I am subscribing to a zine which is active for 25 years.

Football has not the drafting system as the American counterpart has, and trading is more complicated to implement.


1979
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Silver or Spoils?
« on: December 10, 2012, 05:52:49 am »
It seems like the more bloated your deck, the more you want spoils. The downside of spoils is that it's one-shot. The longer it will take to cycle, the better it is.

Has anyone experience with Spoils and Watchtower-type top-decking?

1980
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Silver or Spoils?
« on: December 10, 2012, 05:48:41 am »
Come on, Dominion could use a Black Lotus.

1981
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: December 10, 2012, 05:41:11 am »
Dark Ages: Fortress is a pretty fun defense against Knights.

Another card that lives up to its name.

1982
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Silver or Spoils?
« on: December 10, 2012, 03:36:51 am »
The farther you are into the game, the less value that silver is going to give you.

I was under the impression that Silver gave $2 throughout the game.

Imagine that the game is almost over, and you're only going through your deck once more. Then Spoils is definitely better than Silver, right? The fact that it goes away doesn't matter, because you're only seeing them each once anyways. If you've still got 10 shuffles left, though, the Silver is going to appear 10(ish) times, where the Spoils would only appear the once.

So, the later in the game you are, the less times the Silver gets to appear, making the downside of Spoils less relevant.

This seems to be at odds with the first reply:

Quote
But, when you're greening and no longer buying gold,  silver is better ...

1983
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: TTA II: Not quite as civilized - Turn 3, Age I
« on: December 10, 2012, 01:39:01 am »
Pass political phase

Elect Moses as leader
Increase Population
Play Engeneering Genius and build first stage of Pyramids
Play Ideal Building Site and build Philosophy

1984
Forum Games / Re: Polysleuth I "Koh-I-Noor": Signups open
« on: December 09, 2012, 04:56:58 pm »
I'm interested in this. But reading the rules is horrible. Maybe you want to replace the HTML.

I have yet to find out what the h1-h3 tags are in this markup thingie here. For now, I have posted them here: http://derwisch.wikidot.com/blog:polysleuth

1985
Forum Games / Polysleuth I "Koh-I-Noor": Signups open
« on: December 09, 2012, 12:21:32 pm »
I would like to host a play-by-mail classic where players move concurrently, i.e. I receive your moves as private messages and post the results publicly. The game can be reasonably played with up to seven players but I would like to start as soon as I see five or more have joined.

Expect a lot of Sudoku-style deduction but with competition for information gathering. A risky guess may be worth it if, even if it's wrong, it leads to several correct guesses.

Here's the rules http://derwisch.wikidot.com/blog:polysleuth. If anything is not clear (as a non-native speaker I may have formulated the rules in a way that they would be clearer in a re-phrased form), contact me. Sorry I don't know how to convert HTML to the markup required here.

EDIT: Rules have moved.

Players:

1. Qvist
2. Inning
3. theorel
4. ?
5. ?
6. (optional)
7. (optional)

1986
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: TTA II: Not quite as civilized - Turn 2, Age I
« on: December 09, 2012, 09:48:38 am »
Sorry for hijacking this thread, but my question is directly related to this disturbing behaviour:

When looking at the list of topics in http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?board=41.0, I don't seem to have a New Topic button. Am I missing something?

1987
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: TTA II: Not quite as civilized - Turn 2, Age I
« on: December 09, 2012, 08:29:25 am »
Frugality (II) doesn't mean Frugality from Age II?!

1988
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: TTA II: Not quite as civilized - Turn 2, Age I
« on: December 09, 2012, 01:04:09 am »
I think I can complete my turn before the card row is replenished.


Build Bronze
Take Moses in hand
Take Ideal Building Site in hand

1989
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: TTA II: Not quite as civilized - Age A
« on: December 08, 2012, 09:20:32 am »
is a "technology card" any card that has a tech cost?

Yes. Team Sports and Constitutional Monarchy are technologies, who knew.

EDIT: Watno beat me for it.

1990
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: TTA II: Not quite as civilized - Age A
« on: December 08, 2012, 05:10:50 am »
Absolutely. He's one of the better age A leaders in a vacuum, and leaders are definitely a strong opening play.

I'd have taken Pyramids as the starting player, but it would have been a tough call. My reasoning would have been that Aristotle doesn't do much for you in turn 2, other than, for instance, Julius.

1991
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: TTA II: Not quite as civilized - Age A
« on: December 08, 2012, 02:38:04 am »

Take Engineering Genius in Hand
Take Pyramids in Hand and put it on the table

1992
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff
« on: December 06, 2012, 12:33:50 pm »
COUNT.

It's simple, easy to use an does exactly what it says.

It can do nine different things though, depending on the two parameters you pass.

1993
2012 / Re: Win Probability Calculator
« on: December 06, 2012, 06:51:49 am »
Also, genetic linkage: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_linkage#LOD_score_method_for_estimating_recombination_frequency

Since I'm not seeing the word logistic in there, are you willing to explain how OD/LOD is related to the logistic function?  I did linkage analysis for about a year and a half and always simply treated it as a Bayesian probability analysis.

You can transform the term such that the only factor depending on the random variate, R, is (theta/1-theta)^R, and there you have the logistic term.

Quote
  (Granted, the word Bayesian isn't in that article either, which makes me less than impressed with that WP article).

There is a straightforward frequentist interpretation of the LOD score. The customary -3 limit for the lod score directly corresponds with a test level, I am currently to dumb to calculate which one.

1994
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff
« on: December 06, 2012, 04:57:18 am »
Another: Store names with bad grammar annoy me. I mean, in Dutch, we append the letter s without an apostrophe (if possible) to show property, like "Berts Winkel" to show that it's a shop (winkel) owned by Bert. But, suffering from over Anglicization perhaps, often it will turn into "Bert's Winkel". The thing that bothers me is not only that the owner didn't know the correct form, but also roughly 80% of the people think it's correct!

To me, the worst is when people unnecessarily put things in "quotes".  WTF are you doing?

"It is a particular German habit to deny a world history event by putting it between quotes. France has not emerged "victorious" from this war [WW1], but victorious and Germany has lost."
-- Kurt Tucholsky, in a critical appraisal of a schoolbook published 1925
http://www.textlog.de/tucholsky-kinder-republik.html

That said, I would have put "Bert's winkel" in quotes too.

1995
Would all players be ok with going in geographical order like in the other game, so that (ipofanes and Tables) and (cayvie and Jorbles) have their turn after each other each, randomizing inside the pairings and randomizing starting player?

I am full of approval for this suggestion.

1996
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff
« on: December 04, 2012, 09:45:31 am »
A groaner from Germany:



A working translation for "steht's" here would be "all way's".
Also, to mutilate the wonderful composite "Onlineverkaufsprofi" is very un-German.

1997
2012 / Re: Win Probability Calculator
« on: December 04, 2012, 09:15:32 am »
It's odd really.  I know logistic functions well from teaching so many semesters of differential equations, but I never used them elsewhere when I was a student, nor do I ever use them in my research.  I hope that some of you use this stuff, and that it's more than just a contrived plaything for my students.

Next time you can tell your students that the logistic function is used day in day out in statistical analysis. Don't now anything about TrueSkill but the rehashed Elo number uses the logistic distribution: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system#Implementing_Elo.27s_scheme

Also, genetic linkage: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_linkage#LOD_score_method_for_estimating_recombination_frequency

1998
Dominion General Discussion / Re: olneyce's strategy
« on: December 04, 2012, 08:55:46 am »
I don't think that "always buy attacks" is a good rule of thumb, but I do think that it's important to be aware of all the attacks when you plan your strategy. One easy pitfall to fall into when you're new to the game is to only think about your own deck and your own turns and ignore the effects of interaction. At the start of the game, it can be useful to think, for each attack card, "what will I do if he buys this attack?". If you can't think of something good, maybe you should go for that attack in your strategy.

Especially keep in mind that Minion makes end-of-turn top-deckers like Scheme, Herbalist, Alchemist, Inn look ugly.
 

1999
Some early game advice:

There are two Age A events which you can only make use of if you have a content worker. One is to build a warrior and one to build a priest for free. It's generally better to have that spoon in your pocket in case it rains porridge (as we say in Germany). After Age A, having a content worker without anything to do may cost you more food but saves a civil action for later (and may avoid corruption now). I generally wouldn't build one if this causes my consumption to go up, unless the civil action would go waste otherwise.



2000
Thanks for hosting, count me in. I am impartial to the corruption rule but would do without it if given the choice.


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