Really nice article!
Here is a game where I chose a swingy strategy on purpose:
http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120528-080750-ea2e2993.htmlCards in supply (key cards in bold):
Black Market, Embargo, Embassy, Highway, Laboratory, Pearl Diver, Potion, Scout,
Spice Merchant, Treasure Map, and Vineyard
I am second player and my opponents opens 5/2 and chooses Embassy. An Embassy is not an elite opening, but still a pretty strong one - it is one of the fastest BM type cards, I would guess it's better than Envoy/Silver.
I draw 4/3 and it seems I would be behind on any strategy close to BM, and Labs/Highways are not a strong combination without a reliable +buy. So I decide to open Spice Merchant/Black Market and hope to get lucky underground. In the actual game this works fantastically as I get a tournament on turn 5, and a Hunting party on turn 10. Winning Followers on turn 11 essentially decides the game.
So it worked, and it makes for a good story for this thread. But was my logic correct, and does the story actually hold up? That is still not clear to me. For example, yes I am behind, but Embassy is also quite swingy by itself (for example, there is a huge difference between drawing it in turn 3 or turn 4), so just going for Embassy myself is already a high-variance strategy. Also, maybe my strategy was just good by itself? Even if I don't immediately get lucky via BM, I can hope for some synergy between Labs/Highways with the unreliable +buy from Spice Merchant, the virtual +buy from Black Market, and maybe some actual +buys found in the Black Market.
As usual, it's more complicated in an actual game than in theory...