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Game Reports / Re: Poor end game skillz
« on: June 21, 2011, 11:52:09 am »PPR time!
Buy the first (i.e., third-to-last) Province, for sure. Now you have 21VP, $8, and multiple buys, and your opponent has 24VP. You can take the lead instead of buying the second-to-last Province (Duchy/Estate to take you to 25VP), and you should do it. If you only had one buy, then you might as well go for the Province because you can only tie instead of taking the lead by avoiding the penultimate Province.
Axe Knight's analysis is slightly incorrect, in that it is a little too cautious. You should go for the Province when you can only tie with your lesser buy, because if you buy a Duchy instead you are only painting yourself into a corner, as your best chance of winning is hoping for back-to-back Provinces rather than a total collapse by your opponent's deck.
Perhaps that's something I could work on then. I guess I've just lost too many times when I'm behind, buy the penultimate Province, and then lose when they take the last one, and get somewhat conservative. I do factor in how much I'm behind, and how much my opponent has actually hit $8.