The Wishing Well/Silver odds aren't too hard to compute though. We'll distinguish 3 cases:
WW in hand 3 (5/12 odds)
WW in hand 4 (5/12 odds)
WW misses shuffle (2/12 odds)
WW in hand 4 is $5 guaranteed.
WW in hand 3 - only way to miss $5 is to guess wrong. We'll look at what your hand 3 is after drawing your WW card.
A) SCCEE (3/22 odds)
B) CCCEE (5/22 odds)
C) CCCCE (5/22 odds)
are the only potential failstates.
For A), you only guess wrong if your single remaining E is on top; that will also immediately trigger a fail to hit $5 on T4. (1/6 odds)
For B) and C), guessing wrong can mean either hitting S or E.
If in B), if you hit S that guarantees $5 on T4, so disregard that. If you hit E, you fail only if you bottomdeck S. Overall odds: 1/30
For C), it is most complicated; both S or E can lead to failstates. With S, the failstate is bottomdecking C (3/5 odds), with E, the failstate is not bottomdecking E (4/5 odds) Overall odds: 7/30
All in all, WW in hand 3 has a failure rate of
3/22*1/6 + 5/22*1/30 + 5/22*7/30 = 1/12.
Finally, what if WW misses the shuffle? Let's go by what the other card missing the shuffle is.
If it's E, then you have $9 in 10 cards, so $5 is guaranteed.
If it's S (i.e. "Golden Sombrero"), then you have the same 10 cards as in the first shuffle, so the failure rate is 4/5.
If it's C, you have to split $4/$4 to fail, so you first hand is one of
CCCCE (5/28 odds)
SCCEE (5/28 odds)
In total the failure rate is 5/14. All in all, the failure rate for WW missing the shuffle is
1/11*4/5 + 7/11*5/14 = 3/10.
That means that the chance of not hitting $5 when opening WW/Silver is
5/12*1/12 + 2/12*3/10 = 61/720 = 8.47222...%
Actually, I was feeling like doing a programming task, so I did it again -- and it seems like we were all wrong. I'm getting 91.1% for hitting 5$ with silver/silver and 90.5% for hitting 5$ with silver/ww.
On the other hand, you could say the odds are basically the same, and wishing well is a much better card, so you'd rather open ww/silver. Still, your probability to hit 5$ is lower.
One of each, if able to play WW on turn 4 you'll have perfect knowledge of the last card in your draw pile.
In the long run you might (ahem) wish you had more Wells and not the Silver but starting with exactly one Silver is the correct move on most boards.
