One of the inscrutable statistics over on CouncilRoom.com, "win rate given avail", will tell you how likely you are to win a game with each given card in it. Let's suppose you get to play a game with your best 10 Kingdom cards on this list. That's your dream board. How do you play it? Now do the same thing for the worst 10 cards, your nightmare board.
To see this, go to
the increasingly misnamed "Popular Buys" page on councilroom.com. Type your name into the first search box, the one that says "search by player", and hit enter. This should add a bunch of columns about your statistics on the right. One of those columns is your "win rate given avail". Click the header to sort by it.
Here's my best board:
$5 Jester
$4 Coppersmith, Walled Village, Spice Merchant, Talisman
$3 Trade Route, Woodcutter, Smugglers
$2 Hamlet, Pawn
I'm pretty sure that the only action cards I would actively buy in this kingdom are Jester and Pawn. Besides that I'd aim for Big Money, though "Big Money/Jester" is not a well-defined strategy because you have to adapt it to whatever ends up in your deck. Maybe I'd pick up a Hamlet or WV if I ended up with too many terminals because of my Jester or my opponent's. This board mostly involves being adaptable, and picking the right time to start greening, which I think I can do.
Worst board*:
$5 Highway, Archivist, Haggler
$4 Noble Brigand, Bridge
$3 Tunnel, Scheme, Oasis
$2 Chapel, Fool's Gold
This board is telling me two things: "you're bad at Hinterlands", and "you're bad at combos". Thanks, board, way to make me look like a noob.
But it's probably right. My reaction upon looking at this kingdom is "buhhhhhh". But let me think through it.
Of course I need a Chapel, and I'd probably open Chapel/Silver. Now there's the fan card Archivist on the board, and I remember it being described as a "one card combo card", so loading up on Archivists in a chapeled deck is
probably good. Especially because it does something slightly useful with Chapel (discards it for $1) after it has served its purpose.
Is Archivist/Oasis a combo, or just redundant? I might pick up an Oasis just to try it. But most notably I'm discarding all the time, so once I have an Archivist I'd probably start buying Tunnels. Which have a significant threat of clogging my chapeled deck, but Archivist/Tunnel just sounds way too good to pass up. And that sounds like an argument for more Oases later.
Oh, and I need a Bridge, as my one terminal, for +buys. With which I'd probably buy even more Tunnels while it's possible. This game might empty the gold pile. And wouldn't Highways go well with Bridge? Well, I don't know. I don't think I have time to buy them among everything else I'm trying to do.
I'd probably pass entirely on Fool's Gold. The deck is going to be too full of tunnels and real Gold. Archivist sounds initially like a good way to find two FGs to pair up, but that only actually works if you get two Archivists to pair up!
Now show me why I screwed that up entirely.
*I cheated a bit. Jack of All Trades is, remarkably, on my worst list, and I skipped over it. I think this is due to a phase where I desperately tried to find ways to not buy it. I've got a bunch of games where I didn't buy a Jack, and my win rate in these games is an abysmal 0.44. If you put Jack in this kingdom instead of Oasis, you get a predictably boring board that's dominated by DoubleJack, so let's not.