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General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: October 02, 2015, 02:04:10 pm »The fixed win-rate FOR YOU. And yes, it's due to playstyle fit.
I still don't understand how it's even possible to model games as having different importance with a fixed winrate, but I'd love if I'm missing a detail and you could help me see it!
Of course depends on how you model the whole stuff, if you do it the Bayesian way I think you can
a) assume there is a "true" fixed win-rate for you, but also assume that your win-rate in the first games is worse (or more reverted to 1/2) than the true one. Kind of cheated as it's not fixed any more, but the "true" one you want to find is still fixed.
b) If you calculate the posteriori distributions, you probably get something like constant * prior* (product of terms due to observations). You could just arbitrarily weight the terms from the first games lower (which, in this context is probably equivalent to a))
But in the meantime I am thinking, this all might add to much complexity (and more parameters) to the problem, I would first really solve it with "really" constant probabilities.