Treating card draw as effective treasure amounts is an acceptable approach only when you consider Big Money strategies, that is, when you ignore almost everything Dominion is really about.
An example game where I trash down to only 6 cards after T8, at which point my only buying power comes from a Market and a Count. I proceed to gain a whole bunch of stuff (including Duchies for VP) by developing Fortresses, and the only real "buying power" I eventually amass is but an unfortunate side-effect of playing a Pillage each turn, for Spoils are not much better than Curses in a Double-Tactician engine. If you'd do a buying-power/turn analysis, my strategy would be judged as really awful, yet it worked out pretty good
Another example, here I go for some early buying power because I want the Forge, but then I trash down to only $4 buying power halfway T12, after which I bring it back up to $8. I could actually build it quite a bit further, say, to $16. A "buying power" analysis would conclude that this is better, but it's not: due to the lack of +buy, 16 is as good as 8. Furthermore, such an analysis would also say that a strategy that does not use 2 Forges to trash Fortresses into Provinces but does get to 8 a little faster is better, yet it clearly isn't.
Hi SheCan'tSayNo,
I think I haven't been clear-enough as to the intent of the analysis. I'm not looking to play an entire match using an effective-treasure-value method. I'm interested in developing another method (my previous one used the councilroom.com best and worst buys data) for determining (and minimizing) the potential discrepancy between the 'best' 5/2 opener and the 'best' 4/3 opener on the outcome of a match (i.e. artificial kingdom selection). Basically, a checkbox option for the card picker program (found here, in case you're interested:
http://inprogressgaming.com/dominion-card-picker/) that would attempt to compare the best-available 5/2 opening with the best-available 4/3 opening, and throw out the kingdom set if the strength discrepancy (e.g. the likelihood of the 4/3 player to immediately capitulate on seeing their opponent open with the 5/2) was outside of a specific range. As something like the councilroom.com best and worst buys data isn't available anymore, I've been looking for another method of approximating this same kind of data, and I'm currently looking into the possibility of evaluating the starting/early-game deck using effective-treasure-value methods to do this.
Looking at your two example games there, yes, both of them involved 'upgrade'-focused strategies (the first one being a Fortress -> Duchy Develop 3-pile game, and the second being a Fortress -> Province Forge game), which would certainly cause an effective-treasure-value analysis some problems mid-to-late-game.. but if you look at only your opening buys, in both cases you follow the effective-treasure-value method to the letter:
In your first match you open Count/-, with a higher effective-treasure-value (potential) than any other 5/2 opening available (thanks to the +3 coins available on Count). In your second match you open Conspirator/Silver, once again, when taking into consideration the (eventual) opportunity to activate Conspirator's draw ability, the highest effective-treasure-value opener available for a 4/3 opening.
But once again, I'm interested in using this method to evaluate the Kingdom selection, rather than the specific plays. In your first match, Wareagle opened Silver/Silver against your Count/-. I certainly wouldn't say that match came down to luck on the opener.. you played a very different strategy than Wareagle did. So an effective-treasure-value method of kingdom selection would need to not rule that opening strength difference as 'too great'. In your second match, you opened Conspirator/Silver against Masterpiece+1/Silver, both of which come out a bit 'stronger' for effective-treasure-value than something like Rabble/-, and somewhat similar to the value of Cache/-. Neither of you got the 5/2 opening, but again I wouldn't think that an effective-treasure-value comparison of those 5/2 options to the 4/3 options would have suggested that one or the other was out-of-line strong or weak.