Dominion Strategy Forum
Dominion => Dominion General Discussion => Topic started by: Jimmmmm on August 11, 2011, 11:27:22 pm
-
So I was thinking about how often cards from one game seem to reappear in the next. This is obviously more often with less cards. In fact, the probability of any two games using only base cards having distinct sets (no kingdom card appearing in both games) is:
(15 * ... * 6)/(25 * ... * 16) ~ 0.09%.
Even if you're playing with 50 kingdom cards, it's still surprisingly low:
(40 * ... * 31)/(50 * ... * 41) ~ 8.25%.
Currently on Isotropic, there are 130 kingdom cards in use. In that case, the likelihood of any two games having distinct cards is:
(120 * ... * 111)/(130 * ... * 121) ~ 43.57%.
And then there was Hinterlands. Fast forward to October, and 26 new cards will be thrown into the mix, bringing the total to 156 kingdom cards, including promotionals. This will bring the probability of having 2 entirely distinct games to:
(146 * ... * 137)/(156 * ... * 147) ~ 50.50%.
And so with the addition of Hinterlands, for the first time in Dominion history, any new game will more likely than not be completely different from the previous game.
-
And yes, I realise Young Witch makes things more complicated. If you want to work it out taking her into account, be my guest. :)
Also, feel free to check my maths and correct me if I'm wrong.
-
This is one of those really cool, unintuitive things. It's similar to how, in any group of 30 people, the odds are pretty strong that two of them will have the same birthday. Doesn't seem like it should be likely at all, but it is. Thanks for doing the math on that.
-
Did you take blackmarket into the calculation ;)
-
Did you take blackmarket into the calculation ;)
Nope. Only considering the 10 supply Kingdom Card decks (ignoring the possibility of an 11th). If a card is in one game, and in the Black Market the next game, I would consider them different games with respect to that card.