Dominion Strategy Forum
Miscellaneous => General Discussion => Topic started by: ebEliminator on August 21, 2012, 05:55:49 am
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I wonder how many people play fantasy football who are on this forum? I would like to make a league for Dominion players/Isotropic addicts, but I'm gauging interest before going through with it. If you're interested, please reply!
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Are we talking proper football?
Or American Football/NFL/Gridiron?
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Does fantasy soccer even exist? I assumed he was talking about American football.
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Does fantasy soccer even exist? I assumed he was talking about American football.
Why wouldn't it?
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I would be interested in either.
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That would be American football. I do like soccer, but not as much as football. (Fantasy soccer does exist, but I don't think you can join proper leagues where you draft players.)
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That would be American football. I do like soccer, but not as much as football. (Fantasy soccer does exist, but I don't think you can join proper leagues where you draft players.)
Ok I'll pass then, my knowledge of American football is probably too limited!
(there are thousands of fantasy leagues for all major sports, both free and charging. Not quite sure why people are seeming thinking it's limited to just specific sports!)
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That would be American football. I do like soccer, but not as much as football. (Fantasy soccer does exist, but I don't think you can join proper leagues where you draft players.)
Ok I'll pass then, my knowledge of American football is probably too limited!
(there are thousands of fantasy leagues for all major sports, both free and charging. Not quite sure why people are seeming thinking it's limited to just specific sports!)
Well, fantasy football holds a very unique place in American culture, something I don't think fantasy soccer possibly replicates in the UK or any other country.
I'd be down for it.
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If I were in the US and could watch all the games I'd participate...as is I probably won't see any games before the end of October. I can buy NFL game package here but don't have the money right now.
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In
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If I were in the US and could watch all the games I'd participate...as is I probably won't see any games before the end of October. I can buy NFL game package here but don't have the money right now.
You don't need to watch football to play fantasy.
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Are we talking proper football?
Or American Football/NFL/Gridiron?
Yes and yes?
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That would be American football. I do like soccer, but not as much as football. (Fantasy soccer does exist, but I don't think you can join proper leagues where you draft players.)
Ok I'll pass then, my knowledge of American football is probably too limited!
(there are thousands of fantasy leagues for all major sports, both free and charging. Not quite sure why people are seeming thinking it's limited to just specific sports!)
Well, fantasy football holds a very unique place in American culture, something I don't think fantasy soccer possibly replicates in the UK or any other country.
I'd be down for it.
I think you would be surprised, there are at least 3 going on internally in my office at the moment (of varying degrees of complexity). As well as 2 Formula 1 games. Not to mention every main newspaper runs one with big cash prizes.
Obviously the population isn't the same here, but i'm willing to bet the percentages that plays is probably similar.
If I don't need to know much about NFL (I only watch 3 or 4 games a season) and it doest require a herculean amount of time and effort then ill give it a go!
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That would be American football. I do like soccer, but not as much as football. (Fantasy soccer does exist, but I don't think you can join proper leagues where you draft players.)
Ok I'll pass then, my knowledge of American football is probably too limited!
(there are thousands of fantasy leagues for all major sports, both free and charging. Not quite sure why people are seeming thinking it's limited to just specific sports!)
Well, fantasy football holds a very unique place in American culture, something I don't think fantasy soccer possibly replicates in the UK or any other country.
I'd be down for it.
I think you would be surprised, there are at least 3 going on internally in my office at the moment (of varying degrees of complexity). As well as 2 Formula 1 games. Not to mention every main newspaper runs one with big cash prizes.
Obviously the population isn't the same here, but i'm willing to bet the percentages that plays is probably similar.
If I don't need to know much about NFL (I only watch 3 or 4 games a season) and it doest require a herculean amount of time and effort then ill give it a go!
The beauty of fantasy (american) football - is that most weeks - all of the action happens between sunday and monday. You don't have to worry about juggling your roster like you do in baseball. You can basically log in on friday night - check the news to make sure your players aren't injured - and pick who you think is best. Most systems will give you "projected" points per player for the week - so you can make a reasonably informed decision of who to start - and during the draft - they will list the average draft position of every player - and while taking the top guy off the list every time isn't optimal - its not like you're just picking completely blind. I would say that the total time investment is about 15-30 minutes / week + 1-2 hours for the initial draft. You can spend more - combing over waiver wires and trash talking - but for a bare minimum investment - its not that bad.
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Ok, that doesn't sound too bad, that's pretty much exactly like the system over here, except instead of a draft you have X amount of money to spend on players.
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Oh - I'd love to do an auction based system - but that is typically reserved for Level 2 fans.
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well the Euro football fantasy stuff gravitates towards the player-purchase model because they are much more used to seeing their players as commodities to be bought and sold. You know, capitalism. Here in our glorious North American Socialist Sports Paradise, we draft players from a common talent pool into the NFL, so fantasy players draft too. Auctions are a lot more time consuming to be fair.
if you get up towards 12 takers, I might be in -- but have a lot of travel also in the weeks between now and kickoff so i might not be able to make an online draft either.
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That would be American football. I do like soccer, but not as much as football. (Fantasy soccer does exist, but I don't think you can join proper leagues where you draft players.)
Ok I'll pass then, my knowledge of American football is probably too limited!
(there are thousands of fantasy leagues for all major sports, both free and charging. Not quite sure why people are seeming thinking it's limited to just specific sports!)
Well, fantasy football holds a very unique place in American culture, something I don't think fantasy soccer possibly replicates in the UK or any other country.
I'd be down for it.
Dunno how it is in USA, but fantasy football (soccer, whatever) is quite a thing here.
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well the Euro football fantasy stuff gravitates towards the player-purchase model because they are much more used to seeing their players as commodities to be bought and sold. You know, capitalism. Here in our glorious North American Socialist Sports Paradise, we draft players from a common talent pool into the NFL, so fantasy players draft too. Auctions are a lot more time consuming to be fair.
The big clubs in Europe would LOVE to have a closed shop franchise system, (Thus also introducing wage caps and budgets) but that door has long been closed to them unfortunately as its a world game governed by FIFA rather than individual associations. And to do it they would have to breakaway from the whole of the rest of the football world (so no world cups for the players, etc..)
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I'd be interested
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For more serious managers, auctions are much better than snake drafts, imo, because players tend to go to the managers who value them most. If you're a huge Aaron Rodgers fan, you can go ahead and spend half your budget to get him and can't be screwed out of it based on random draft position.
But for less intense players, snake drafts are better since you don't have to be "on" the whole draft. You know when your turn is coming up, and you have a list of players you can pick from when it gets down to you.
I'd be down to play either.
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I love auction drafts (I just got done with one!), and it seems more fitting for us Dominion players to use an auction system somehow, but there are two problems with it:
1) It takes much longer than a regular draft (mine lasted an hour and 45 minutes)
2) Making the draft is very important, as autopickers tend to make the draft less fun.
With a regular draft league, I wouldn't have to make sure as many people as possible could make the draft (but I still expect 100% participation, with absences understandable in certain situations).
I have created the league, it's on Yahoo.
ID: 644614
password: Tunnel (capitalization needed)
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I love auction drafts (I just got done with one!), and it seems more fitting for us Dominion players to use an auction system somehow, but there are two problems with it:
1) It takes much longer than a regular draft (mine lasted an hour and 45 minutes)
2) Making the draft is very important, as autopickers tend to make the draft less fun.
With a regular draft league, I wouldn't have to make sure as many people as possible could make the draft (but I still expect 100% participation, with absences understandable in certain situations).
I have created the league, it's on Yahoo.
ID: 644614
password: Tunnel (capitalization needed)
When is the draft?
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7 pm Central on Monday, September 3, although the date can be changed if enough people don't like this date.
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I just joined and looked over the league settings. I think we out to just play standard settings, especially if there are people who have never played before. Making passing TDs worth more points will cause people who are just reading about general fantasy strategy to be confused and undervalue QBs relative to RBs. And 3 points for blocked kicks is just random.
I'm also interested in hearing opinions about FAAB.
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It looks like an auction draft as it is right now?
I've never done fantasy football before and would second HME's suggestions (though I am clueless about FAAB)
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I just joined and looked over the league settings. I think we out to just play standard settings, especially if there are people who have never played before. Making passing TDs worth more points will cause people who are just reading about general fantasy strategy to be confused and undervalue QBs relative to RBs. And 3 points for blocked kicks is just random.
I'm also interested in hearing opinions about FAAB.
I agree on all counts. I think FAAB is better for people that have played, but if you are reading general advice it is usually catered towards unlimited, free, pickups. I think that would be better in this case.
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It looks like an auction draft as it is right now?
I've never done fantasy football before and would second HME's suggestions (though I am clueless about FAAB)
FAAB is that when you go to pick up players that are not owned, instead of it being a "first come first serve basis, you have a budget during the year to spend on these players. At the begging of every week, everyone blindly submits an amount they want to bid on a player. The person with the highest bid gets the player. The main difference between this and conventional pickups is that you only have one chance a week to add players, and you have to stay within your budget, and thus don't have unlimited pickups.
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I'm open to changing the waiver rules, I just think FAAB fits in more with the idea of an auction league.
I prefer 6/-2 to 4/-1 for passing TDs/INTs because that's how it was when I started playing fantasy football (in 2002). I just feel 4 points for passing TDs is wonky.
Tdog: Actually, with FAAB, you can pick up players as much as you want after the waiver period, and they're free, the only drawback is that they have to clear waivers first.
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I'd prefer to do a regular draft, but am happy to oblige the more experienced fantasy footballers.
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I would vote regular draft, no FAAB and 4 points per TD
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I wouldn't be opposed to running two leagues, one for auction, and one for good ol' snake draft.
BTW, I changed blocked kicks back to 2 points, since they're just turnovers. I have logic as to why safeties should be 4 points in fantasy football (2 "real" points + 2 "fantasy" points for the turnover), but I think that would be too radical to implement here.
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Dominion Strategy League is now open.
ID: 651949
Password: Hoard
12 teams, completely unchanged standard settings.
The Black Market (auction league) is still open.
ID: 644614
Password: Tunnel
12 teams, also reverted to completely standard settings.
Free free to join one or both.
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When is the draft for the standard league?
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Thursday, August 30, 7:00 pm Central.
(I've already drafts on the final Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of preseason, and some of you may actually have lives, that's why I'm hitting weekdays)
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I prefer 6/-2 to 4/-1 for passing TDs/INTs because that's how it was when I started playing fantasy football (in 2002). I just feel 4 points for passing TDs is wonky.
It's "wonky" in the sense that from some perspective TDs should all be worth 6 points? But technically, the QB never gets into the endzone, so he doesn't score any points. If you look at the "points" statistic kept by the NFL, they get none for a passing TD (the receiver gets 6). The points awarded for fantasy are just to give some value to something they do. 4 points is 100 yards passing, which seems reasonable. In 2002, Yahoo fantasy football scoring was terrible. Not only were passing TDs 6 points, but rushing/receiving yards were 0.05 instead of 0.1, so 1 passing TD was as good as 120 rushing/receiving yards. Good luck getting that out of a player on a consistent basis. So then you just had Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper on god status, and other good productive players like Tiki Barber worth absolutely nothing. In 2002, on ESPN leagues, it was already 0.1 points per rush/receiving yards and 4 points per passing TD. Yahoo eventually switched over because it just made more sense.
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I agree, .1 per rushing/receiving yard makes more sense, but by thatlogic, receiving and rushing TDs would be worth 10, and return touchdowns would be worth nothing.
I feel that at 6/-2/(.04/yard), QBs are balanced by being able to score for more TDs, but for their yards not counting as much.
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I agree, .1 per rushing/receiving yard makes more sense, but by thatlogic, receiving and rushing TDs would be worth 10, and return touchdowns would be worth nothing.
I feel that at 6/-2/(.04/yard), QBs are balanced by being able to score for more TDs, but for their yards not counting as much.
No, rushing and receiving TDs are worth 6 because TDs are worth 6 in actual football. Passing TDs are worth 0 points, so you can assign an arbitrary value to them. Fantasy football has been around for a couple decades now, and people have generally settled on 4 points being a reasonable value for them. 6 is fine too (though it basically makes QBs outscore every other position by a lot), and people do it, but I feel that if you're trying to get random people to play with you, it seems to make more sense to stick with what is standard.
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Thursday, August 30, 7:00 pm Central.
(I've already drafts on the final Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of preseason, and some of you may actually have lives, that's why I'm hitting weekdays)
Works for me, although I'd prefer it slightly later in the day.
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Keeping everything standard is probably a must, especially since we're drafting just a week.
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Thursday, August 30, 7:00 pm Central.
(I've already drafts on the final Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of preseason, and some of you may actually have lives, that's why I'm hitting weekdays)
Works for me, although I'd prefer it slightly later in the day.
And I'd prefer slightly earlier in the day.
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Need m0hr people.
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Signed up for the standard league
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Signed up for the standard league
Are there multiple leagues?
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Signed up for the standard league
Are there multiple leagues?
I'm in the Dominion Strategy league, there is 6 of us right now. There is also the black market (auction) league.
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It might be better to consolidate into one league if there's not enough people (there's 4 in Black Market now). But then there's the issue of draft time. I can't make the draft time of the Dominion Strategy league, and I'm sure there are people with the reverse problem.
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I'm interested and will join when not on a work computer. I think it would be far better to just combine leagues that split the leagues into two small ones. People will just have to come to an agreement on the draft - there's clearly not enough interest for two leagues.
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I'm up for the standard league. Not because I'm afraid of auctions (I've never done one, but I'd like to try someday), but mainly because the draft time for the standard league actually probably works for me, and there's no guarantee that other times will. (And if for whatever reason I have to miss the draft, it's less disastrous for a standard league).
Will sign up later today.
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Ok, i joined.
But the time will be 1am in the morning for me by the looks of it, so no guarantee I can be up at that time.
Is there a way i can set the player priority I want and then it auto picks the highest available them?
And also, am I restricted to certain number of players per position?
So for example I need 1 QB, 2 tight Ends, 1 Kicker, 5 of the fat guys in the middle, etc...
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Ozie: Yes, there will be a way for you to pre-rank players if you can't make the draft. Go to "My Team", then in the box where it says how long until the draft, it'll give you a link to the Pre-Draft Player Rankings. Also, you don't need any offensive linemen for fantasy football. They're only necessary to protect the skill guys. :)
Everyone else: It won't hurt to leave the Black Market open for now, but I'll definitely delete it if it doesn't get 10 teams by about a day or two before the draft.
Also, thanks to everyone who joined! There are 7 in the standard draft league, and 5 in the auction. I'm hoping for 12 in the standard and 10 in the auction, but I'll run at 10 for either.
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Ok, i joined.
But the time will be 1am in the morning for me by the looks of it, so no guarantee I can be up at that time.
Is there a way i can set the player priority I want and then it auto picks the highest available them?
And also, am I restricted to certain number of players per position?
So for example I need 1 QB, 2 tight Ends, 1 Kicker, 5 of the fat guys in the middle, etc...
Each week you'll be playing 1 QB, 3 WRs, 2 RBs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF team. You will also have 6 slots for benched players.
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There are still 4 slots left for the standard snake draft league on Yahoo.
ID: 651949
Password: Hoard
We have enough to run, but I'd prefer 10, and 12 would be amazing to have.
If no one objects, I'll cancel the auction. I ran one earlier, and it's really long, and the interest just doesn't seem to be there.
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There are still 4 slots left for the standard snake draft league on Yahoo.
ID: 651949
Password: Hoard
We have enough to run, but I'd prefer 10, and 12 would be amazing to have.
If no one objects, I'll cancel the auction. I ran one earlier, and it's really long, and the interest just doesn't seem to be there.
No objection here. Draft is thurs - 8pm eastern?
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Yes, that is correct. Also, one left, so we only have 7 now.
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I might be slow with my picks as I'm also supposed to be hosting a game of descent that evening. damnit.
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Yes, that is correct. Also, one left, so we only have 7 now.
That was me. Realised I didn't have enough time to give to this.
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We really should try and rustle up one more player at least- Yahoo doesn't want to even set schedules and allow a draft without an even number of teams, and seven is really really small.
C'mon, someone!
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Oi, I'm in. I have another draft at the same time, so hopefully that will be convenient and not a huge headache.
Also I don't actually watch football, I just see it as a numbers game. Or pokemon if I'm talking to someone who would be annoyed by that.
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I just suffered a concussion this morning and I expect to be easy pickins' tomorrow. Tim Tebow #1 for lyfe.
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I just suffered a concussion this morning and I expect to be easy pickins' tomorrow. Tim Tebow #1 for lyfe.
You should probably just grab him for picks 1 through 10 to empty the pile. How great would a team of ten Tim Tebows be? How fun is it to say "team of ten Tim Tebows"?
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Oi, I'm in. I have another draft at the same time, so hopefully that will be convenient and not a huge headache.
Also I don't actually watch football, I just see it as a numbers game. Or pokemon if I'm talking to someone who would be annoyed by that.
Same here. Although playing FFB has made me enjoy watching football more.
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I just suffered a concussion this morning and I expect to be easy pickins' tomorrow. Tim Tebow #1 for lyfe.
You should probably just grab him for picks 1 through 10 to empty the pile. How great would a team of ten Tim Tebows be? How fun is it to say "team of ten Tim Tebows"?
http://www.theonion.com/articles/panicked-redskins-send-another-couple-firstround-p,27649/
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This is an awesome idea. I just joined...and this topic actually got me to post for the first time after being a long time lurker :)
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Aaaahhhh we are at 9! We need 1 more now!!
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I'll quit if you can't get another.
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I'll quit if you can't get another.
Somebody will step up, right guys?
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I'll quit if you can't get another.
Somebody will step up, right guys?
Finally registered! 10. 8)
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The draft is at 8. Be there or be doomed to autopick 10 wide receivers!
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The draft is at 8. Be there or be doomed to autopick 10 wide receivers!
At least it isn't 10 kickers.
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I failed tosign up. Too late?
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I failed tosign up. Too late?
If we can find another player within the hour you can still join. Right now we have an even number of players.
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Registered. Come on people!!!
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Found one. He's not a forumer, but he does like board games
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Okay have him join it's cool
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Draft in 17 minutes!
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Mid pick again :(
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Headso really believes in the Favor Running Backs approach ... 9/15 players on his roster are running backs!
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Reasonable trades will be accepted for Philly's D.
And, no, trying to part me from my #1 running back in exchange for the washed-up ghost of Willis McGahee does not count as a "reasonable trade". Sorry, Axxle. :P
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Reasonable trades will be accepted for Philly's D.
And, no, trying to part me from my #1 running back in exchange for the washed-up ghost of Willis McGahee does not count as a "reasonable trade". Sorry, Axxle. :P
shoot!
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Garrett Hartley has scored more points than Drew Brees has, therefore I think that is a reasonable trade, yes?
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Headso really believes in the Favor Running Backs approach ... 9/15 players on his roster are running backs!
The auto-pick really believes in this approach. Unfortunately I could not attend the draft :-[
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Football tonight! Let's hope I made the right call in starting Eli Manning over RGIII...
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I wish I was in the US :( Well, next football season I'll be back.
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Football tonight! Let's hope I made the right call in starting Eli Manning over RGIII...
Not looking great so far!
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Football tonight! Let's hope I made the right call in starting Eli Manning over RGIII...
Not looking great so far!
Opponent has eli in another league. Hope this continues :p
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The moment I ditch Eli, Band of Misfits is changing its name to RG3PO.
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This is going to be a long and painful season.
Am I talking about fantasy or the real thing? Yes.
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RG3!!!
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Oh cool Stafford. Why not throw another interception while you're at it? >:(
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Thanks a lot Bills offense. Your turnovers are making my Bills defense look really, really bad.
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Aight, now I just need Darrius Heyward-Bey to put up 28.15 points or more by himself and I'll be good for Week 1.
:(
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162 yards and 2 TDs is not unheard of for a WR. They can get that in 2 plays. Unfortunately, Derrius Heyward-Bey has this thing where he doesn't know how to catch the ball with his hands... Still, you could have longer odds.
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So what are the odds Malcolm Floyd will score -1.1?
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So what are the odds Malcolm Floyd will score -1.1?
because you asked? 100%
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So what are the odds Malcolm Floyd will score -1.1?
because you asked? 100%
Those odds just dropped to zero. He'll keep that bench nice and toasty though.
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Scratch that, now he needs 30.04 more than Sebastian Janikowski.
On a side note, my bench scored more per player than my starting roster did. Even though my bench has two players that scored 0 points.
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I don't know what the hell the Bengals thought they were doing out there, but we're going to have to play better than that. That was a pathetic opening performance, even if they were facing a strong team on the road.
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^Maybe they all had Ravens players on their fantasy teams.
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Wow that was close, thanks Denver!
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Mainly, thanks for the 3 INT's.
I watched the game on Spanish ESPN. Spanish ESPN "football americano" is really good. First, they have a lot better camera action (fewer stupid replays, more good replays, more on-field action). Second, fewer ads. Third, guaranteed 0% chance of Skip Bayless.
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Woah, crap, forgot about this while i was away.
Am i winning?
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Which one are you?
And yes, the league feels a little quiet :(
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Hmm, just had a look and looks like im no longer in a league! Was The Ozliers
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Hmm, just had a look and looks like im no longer in a league! Was The Ozliers
We had two leagues and canceled one I think.
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I just want to say that the announcers for the Giants-Panthers game were notably better than usual.
And also, why oh why did I not bother to swap out Wilson from Brown when I had the chance?
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I swear I thought someone already took Andre Brown from waivers for some reason, so I didn't even bother looking for him.
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I swear I thought someone already took Andre Brown from waivers for some reason, so I didn't even bother looking for him.
Yeah, I would have needed to put in a waiver claim and hope I was at the head of the line. I thought about it, then forgot about it, and boy that was a mistake.
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I swear I thought someone already took Andre Brown from waivers for some reason, so I didn't even bother looking for him.
Yeah, I would have needed to put in a waiver claim and hope I was at the head of the line. I thought about it, then forgot about it, and boy that was a mistake.
I was busy Monday and Tuesday so I wasn't able to put waiver wires in. I was really surprised when I saw him still available!
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Today we hold a moment of silence for the Pirates, who benched Jamaal Charles (34.80 points) for Reggie Bush (who got injured halfway through the game).
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wow. i am winning. how did you guys let that happen?
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Apparently in the replacement refs' NFL, catching the player who catches the ball counts as a TD reception.
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Yeah, I've been avoiding reading this thread 'cause I'm waiting for the NFL season to start. What a travesty, but an excellent teaching tool for the econ professors of the world re: inelasticity of demand.
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Today we hold a moment of silence for the Pirates, who benched Jamaal Charles (34.80 points) for Reggie Bush (who got injured halfway through the game).
It's cool, I flopped anyway.
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Apparently in the replacement refs' NFL, catching the player who catches the ball counts as a TD reception.
There are three games shown on a Sunday here in the UK, one at 4pm, one at 9pm and one at 1am. I usually watch the first and part of the second and fall asleep during the third.
Have a £1 bet going on each game with flat mate, currently £4 up!
We're not experts, but even we have been noting on the quality of the usually high standard of referees this year! Didn't realise there was a lock out until the other day, which explains a lot!
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BEARS!!!! ROMO!!!! >:(
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;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Yeah, i went into that game needing Witten to score 14 points more than the bears defense. (in alternate league)
Instead, I lost by a million.
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;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Always fun watching America's Team Cowgirls lose.
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Pfft, I don't really care about the Cowboys. I am more pleased about those five INTs because they put me #1 in the fantasy league ahead of Axxle.
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Dear zxcvbn2: I am very sorry that immediately after trading you Santonio Holmes, he went down with a season-ending injury. In the meantime I am pleased to report that Larry Fitzgerald seems to have fully recovered from his Week 1 / Week 2 doldrums.
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Dear zxcvbn2: I am very sorry that immediately after trading you Santonio Holmes, he went down with a season-ending injury. In the meantime I am pleased to report that Larry Fitzgerald seems to have fully recovered from his Week 1 / Week 2 doldrums.
Yeah, that was an awful trade. And now I have to find another receiver to play immediately this weekend, since the others have a bye.
I just wanted a better RB than Shonne Greene. Is that too much to ask? :(
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Dear zxcvbn2: I am very sorry that immediately after trading you Santonio Holmes, he went down with a season-ending injury. In the meantime I am pleased to report that Larry Fitzgerald seems to have fully recovered from his Week 1 / Week 2 doldrums.
Yeah, that was an awful trade. And now I have to find another receiver to play immediately this weekend, since the others have a bye.
I just wanted a better RB than Shonne Greene. Is that too much to ask? :(
TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW
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Is Tebow back to QB yet? Was amusing seeing him being the centre of attention when he was playing random positions last week!
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I had to renounce my status as backup jets fan after the Sanchez extension / Tebow acquisition from last year.
Dumbest front office ever.
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I thought this article was really damning: http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/week-5-probabilities-and-jets-sanchez-folly/
Over the past decade, quarterbacks get about $1 million in salary per 8.4 Expected Points Added (EPA) they produce. EPA is a measure of point expectancy generation that accounts for down, distance and field position. For example, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were offered about $20 million per year, and they have recently produced around 150 EPA per season. Sanchez should be expected to produce over 80 EPA per season based on his $10 million salary, but he averages only 4 EPA per season in his career. His very best year was in 2010, when he totalled 18 EPA. For context, the 16th-ranked quarterback totalled 50 EPA that year.
If we want to look at Win Probability Added (WPA), which accounts for situational football affected by time and score, Sanchez fares no better. Quarterbacks average $1 million for every 0.20 WPA they accumulate. Sanchez has produced a hair under zero WPA for his career, which is essentially replacement-level performance. Statistically, he should be paid the $300,000 veteran minimum rather than the multi-million dollar salary he was given.
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Did I send you that article? Brian Burke is one of my heroes.
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Nah, but you did point me to FootballOutsiders.
My sports RSS feed is now FO, Grantland, Wertheim, Mandel, Sports on Earth, and SmartFootball. For my money Wertheim / Posnanski are the best sports writers in the field today.
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Burke is @ advancednflstats.com. He's a redskins fan, so he writes a weekly article for the Post about why they suck, and he does these weekly probabilities for the nytimes, usually with a little bit of color.
This one was better than most.
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Ah, yes, that's the other one I missed. Grantland / Sports on Earth are my most consistent favorite sites, though I really dislike Grantland's weird side ventures into pop culture writing.
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My favorite basketball writer is Zach Lowe (The point forward, about to move to grantland i think). Always very thoughtful (though he gets lost in CBA salary cap and trade rules a bit too often).
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Burke is interesting to read. But I don't think he is sufficiently aware of the limits of his statistical approaches. Simple example: his win probability calculator ignores timeouts, since that's too tricky to get right. That might be true (I haven't thought about it), but then you should probably be a little bit careful about this before writing an entire column about a 4th-down decision that his WP calculator "proves" wrong.
He also has many posts on pass-versus-run decisions that I had my doubts about.
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Basically Sanchez is rubbish, that's what we are all saying here, and they just need him to mess up a bit before they can bring Tebow in?
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Tebow is also rubbish. If he wasn't football Jesus we wouldn't even be having this conversation.
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Haha, I know, but football Jesus is more entertaining than Football sometimes!
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Burke is interesting to read. But I don't think he is sufficiently aware of the limits of his statistical approaches. Simple example: his win probability calculator ignores timeouts, since that's too tricky to get right. That might be true (I haven't thought about it), but then you should probably be a little bit careful about this before writing an entire column about a 4th-down decision that his WP calculator "proves" wrong.
He also has many posts on pass-versus-run decisions that I had my doubts about.
I think you're right, but that particular example (I assume you're talking about CAR's decision to punt) is egregious. When you have Cam Newton, 4th-and-1, where a conversion is a win, a failed conversion is decent ATL field position, and a punt is slightly worse ATL field position, it makes zero sense at all to punt.
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On the values of timeouts:
http://www.footballcommentary.com/timeouts.htm
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/lovies-latest-blunder.html
Regarding the Carolina decision, the stat geeks love this one because it has ALL of "soft" factors in favor of going for it.
1. Cam Newton
2. Expensive RBs
3. MVP Candidate QB on other team.
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Dear zxcvbn2: I am very sorry that immediately after trading you Santonio Holmes, he went down with a season-ending injury. In the meantime I am pleased to report that Larry Fitzgerald seems to have fully recovered from his Week 1 / Week 2 doldrums.
Yeah, that was an awful trade. And now I have to find another receiver to play immediately this weekend, since the others have a bye.
I just wanted a better RB than Shonne Greene. Is that too much to ask? :(
SJax wasn't bad last night. Better than he has been for me.
You should probably also start your WR instead of picking him up and leaving him on the bench...
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RGIII NOOOOOO :(
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Burke is interesting to read. But I don't think he is sufficiently aware of the limits of his statistical approaches. Simple example: his win probability calculator ignores timeouts, since that's too tricky to get right. That might be true (I haven't thought about it), but then you should probably be a little bit careful about this before writing an entire column about a 4th-down decision that his WP calculator "proves" wrong.
He also has many posts on pass-versus-run decisions that I had my doubts about.
I think you're right, but that particular example (I assume you're talking about CAR's decision to punt) is egregious. When you have Cam Newton, 4th-and-1, where a conversion is a win, a failed conversion is decent ATL field position, and a punt is slightly worse ATL field position, it makes zero sense at all to punt.
Oh I agree this example was obvious. But at some point he constantly wrote entire posts on some late-game decisions (field goal or go for it? etc.) where the percentages were much closer, and he never once acknowledged this limit of his model, instead taking it as gospel. As accurate gospel, in fact.
Nevertheless, I am a fan of the statistical 4th-down analysis in general. IMO it's the most clear-cut example where you can prove that highly paid "experts" at a profession constantly get a decision wrong.
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First place, baby!
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There is at least one very upset person in every single fantasy football league in the world right now: either because they played against Doug Martin, or they did not play Doug Martin.
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I was projected to win my other league by 16 points.
Then Doug Martin happened.
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I would have beat every other team this week.
I also lost in another league this week and would have beat every other team in that league too.
yay.
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I was projected to win my other league by 16 points.
Then Doug Martin happened.
So, in my other league, my opponent started Doug Martin that week... and I still won by a point. This may have had less to do with m own fantasy prowess and more with the fact that my opponent kept the SF defense in on their bye week, and had two other slots with zero points scored. I mean, I'm not the most active fantasy manager but it shouldn't be hard to make bye week substitutions!
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I would have beat every other team this week.
I also lost in another league this week and would have beat every other team in that league too.
yay.
You had a effed up distribution of points -- Danario Alexander scored more than 12 times as many points as Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Wallace combined.
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Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno
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Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno
Hahahaha... (I've been hanging onto mendenhall in my office league :(
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Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno
RB
Rashard Mendenhall
(Pit - RB)
@Cle L, 20-14 6.46 -2.00
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Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno
Hahahaha... (I've been hanging onto mendenhall in my office league :(
How's Larry Fitzgerald working out for you? Whoda thunk that Felix Jones would end up being the star in that trade.
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Tonight, both Drew Brees and Matt Ryan get outscored by their kickers.
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What a weird week this is, heading into the Monday games...every team with a worse record is leading.
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Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno
Hahahaha... (I've been hanging onto mendenhall in my office league :(
How's Larry Fitzgerald working out for you? Whoda thunk that Felix Jones would end up being the star in that trade.
yeah... :-\
I also can't believe my game is hinging on Bradshaw getting > 10 points.
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Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno
Hahahaha... (I've been hanging onto mendenhall in my office league :(
How's Larry Fitzgerald working out for you? Whoda thunk that Felix Jones would end up being the star in that trade.
yeah... :-\
I also can't believe my game is hinging on Bradshaw getting > 10 points.
Axxlechemists 65.72
Voltaire's Gardens 65.80
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Point
oh
Eight
...
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Me, I'm just thankful. I basically needed Demaryius Thomas to outscore his own QB, and that he did. Eric Decker must have been caught sleeping with Peyton's wife or something.
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If everyone had played everyone every week, this is how the standings would look (as of Week 13):
| Band of Misfits | 111-32 |
| Tunneling to Victory | 94-49 |
| Delaware Wharves | 85-58 |
| Sinister Pandas | 89-54 |
| The Justin Tuck Rule | 89-54 |
| Axxlechemists | 76-67 |
| Mundane Mandate | 67-76 |
| Jack Of All Tebows | 65-78 |
| Ron Mexicans | 57-86 |
| Voltaire's Gardens | 47-96 |
| Pirates | 43-100 |
| zxcvbn2's Militia | 35-108 |
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I need:
1. Tom Brady, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels to get a combined 32.9 points out of a projected 34.1 to secure my win.
2. Arian Foster to put up 16.6 points out of a projected 15.66 to prevent a Tunneling to Victory win.
3. Stephen Gostkowski to get *less* than 22 points of a projected 9.53 to prevent a Sinister Pandas win.
Coinflip to the playoffs!
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That would be American football. I do like soccer, but not as much as football. (Fantasy soccer does exist, but I don't think you can join proper leagues where you draft players.)
Ok I'll pass then, my knowledge of American football is probably too limited!
(there are thousands of fantasy leagues for all major sports, both free and charging. Not quite sure why people are seeming thinking it's limited to just specific sports!)
Well, fantasy football holds a very unique place in American culture, something I don't think fantasy soccer possibly replicates in the UK or any other country.
I'd be down for it.
United http://www.oberfoul.kopfball.org/fm/fm_ligasystem.php (http://www.oberfoul.kopfball.org/fm/fm_ligasystem.php) (fantasy players, though) was big before internet became known in the general public. I am subscribing to a zine which is active for 25 years.
Football has not the drafting system as the American counterpart has, and trading is more complicated to implement.
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I need:
1. Tom Brady, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels to get a combined 32.9 points out of a projected 34.1 to secure my win.
2. Arian Foster to put up 16.6 points out of a projected 15.66 to prevent a Tunneling to Victory win.
3. Stephen Gostkowski to get *less* than 22 points of a projected 9.53 to prevent a Sinister Pandas win.
Coinflip to the playoffs!
This was a bad time for you to go on a 3- (possibly 4-) game losing streak.
Also, I don't know why I started Bryce Brown over Ridley. I guess neither HOU nor TB is a good run matchup ...
And the worst part about Percy Harvin's injury is that now I actually have sit/start decisions to make. Before my WR core was straightforward, the same three guys every week. Now it's a cavalcade of mediocrity rotating in and out of my WR3.
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I am totally psyched for this game tonight. Not just for Arian Foster, but for Texans v Patriots.
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OK maybe this game is not as exciting as one would have thought ...
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I need:
1. Tom Brady, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels to get a combined 32.9 points out of a projected 34.1 to secure my win.
2. Arian Foster to put up 16.6 points out of a projected 15.66 to prevent a Tunneling to Victory win.
3. Stephen Gostkowski to get *less* than 22 points of a projected 9.53 to prevent a Sinister Pandas win.
Coinflip to the playoffs!
Brady has gotten you there, and Arian Foster is close ... just 21 more yards. At this rate your biggest threat is Stephen Gostkowski kicking 18 more extra points, given how porous the HOU defense is.
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Yeah, been watching. Hoping the Texans don't start stopping NE to field goals now!
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I can't believe this team lost to Arizona at home. WTF
Admittedly I think HOU's defense is overrated (see Jacksonville) but Brady is basically getting first downs at will.
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Arian Foster is close ... just 21 more yards
(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/2236661645/cab.png)
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Welp. Your Tom Brady put up so many points Arian Foster isn't playing any more.
Sorry Axxle :( I'm sad too. My winning streak!
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Thanks theory, at least I'm second in my office league!
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Sorry Axxle :( I'm sad too. My winning streak!
Bah, and I would have been third seed if you had won. Now it's fallen to me to extend your losing streak.
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If everyone had played everyone every week, this is how the final standings would look:
| Band of Misfits | 115-39 |
| Tunneling to Victory | 99-55 |
| The Justin Tuck Rule | 97-57 |
| Sinister Pandas | 92-62 |
| Delaware Wharves | 91-63 |
| Axxlechemists | 86-68 |
| Mundane Mandate | 68-86 |
| Jack Of All Tebows | 67-87 |
| Ron Mexicans | 66-88 |
| Voltaire's Gardens | 54-100 |
| Pirates | 53-101 |
| zxcvbn2's Militia | 36-118 |
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If everyone had played everyone every week, this is how the final standings would look:
| Axxlechemists | 86-68 |
| Mundane Mandate | 68-86 |
Palindrome twins!
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Anyone want to set up something complicated. Dynasty league perhaps?
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Palindrome twins!
Just stopping in so that my palindrome spider will stop reminding me to read this thread.
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(http://i.imgur.com/s7IMt.png)
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Sorry Axxle :( I'm sad too. My winning streak!
Bah, and I would have been third seed if you had won. Now it's fallen to me to extend your losing streak.
You wish. There isn't a single one of my starters I'd trade for one of your equivalent starters.
*Trash talk assumes RG3 is actually starting.
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You are doing it wrong.
Proper trash talk:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNcxFUHcgqk
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I still can't believe I made the playoffs, let alone the #2 seed, after that seeming disaster of a draft where I was offline for most of it and got stuck with the f'n Philly D in like Round 8 or something. I'll admit the autopicker gave me a boost with Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker being decent, and I'm kinda glad I forgot all about Ryan Matthews. :P Have him in my other league, which I drafted better overall except for him stinking up the joint.
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Also, I'm convinced that the best way to get value in the draft is rookie running backs. Doug Martin has absolutely been my MVP here, and I think Trent Richardson has that honor in my other league.
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Best values for me in my money league were AP, the elder Manning, and Welker. Second in that league going into the playoffs.
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I don't think I drafted well, with the exception of RG3 and Tony Gonzalez. But I was lucky to offload Eli/Bradshaw/Steven Jackson quickly (and later on Larry Fitzgerald ...)
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I went over with a friend the biggest busts and steals this year. The all-bust team would probably be
Michael Vick, Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, MJD, Darren McFadden, Antonio Gates.
And the all-steal team would probably be
RG3, Reggie Wayne, Vincent Jackson, Randall Cobb, Doug Martin, Adrian Peterson, Tony Gonzalez
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I went over with a friend the biggest busts and steals this year. The all-bust team would probably be
Michael Vick, Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, MJD, Darren McFadden, Antonio Gates.
And the all-steal team would probably be
RG3, Reggie Wayne, Vincent Jackson, Randall Cobb, Doug Martin, Adrian Peterson, Tony Gonzalez
Yeah for owning 3 members of the all-bust team on 2 teams!
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I can't believe I have to start Sam Bradford this week. The first game that matters in a while, and now I'm the underdog.
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Anyone want to set up something complicated. Dynasty league perhaps?
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My £1 bets with flatmate this week are
Packers at Bears
Steelers at Cowboys
49'ers at Patriots
Basically UK TV shows 3 live games on a sunday, one week someone picks a team in the 1st and 3rd, other person gets to pick in the 2nd.
£1 each game
The only time this rule is broken is he always auto gets the Redskins and I auto get the Patriots (Supported teams)
So far I am £15 up for the season!
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Well, Sam Bradford did awesome, but my WR's have combined for 51 yards total and 0 TD's. Looks like this is the end :(
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Come on Ridley + NYJ! You can combine for 41 points!
I had three choices for my WR3. I picked the one guy that did not end up outscoring all my WR's combined. And Jesus, Connor Barth goes off for double digits the whole season, then puts up 0 my week? And Blair Walsh puts up 25 freaking points?
I guess The Justin Tuck Rule is not happy about this week either. Seems like this is the third week in a row where all the lower seeds win.
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Come on Ridley + NYJ! You can combine for 41 points!
I had three choices for my WR3. I picked the one guy that did not end up outscoring all my WR's combined. And Jesus, Connor Barth goes off for double digits the whole season, then puts up 0 my week? And Blair Walsh puts up 25 freaking points?
I guess The Justin Tuck Rule is not happy about this week either. Seems like this is the third week in a row where all the lower seeds win.
I'm more unhappy about what happened in real football. :P
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Wait, real football? What's that? Is it like that weird manifestation of "real-world" Isotropic?
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In my other league (the one where I played Connor Barth), I lost 67-96. My bench on that team scored 101...
Stevie Johnson, Heath Miller, Russell Wilson, and Blair Walsh.
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Anyone want to set up something complicated. Dynasty league perhaps?
I would like to set up a fantasy dominion league. Anyone want to mock up some rules to start?
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Anyone want to set up something complicated. Dynasty league perhaps?
I would like to set up a fantasy dominion league. Anyone want to mock up some rules to start?
I'd go with Stef for the number one pick.