Dominion Strategy Forum

Dominion => Game Reports => Topic started by: Infthitbox on January 21, 2016, 06:04:26 pm

Title: Playing to your outs
Post by: Infthitbox on January 21, 2016, 06:04:26 pm
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160121/log.0.1453416040881.txt

(http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/7/76/Ironworks.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Ironworks) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/1/12/Worker's_Village.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Worker's Village) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/5/58/Contraband.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Contraband) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/2/29/Highway.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Highway) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/b/b4/Outpost.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Outpost)
(http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/d/df/Duchess.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Duchess) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/5/56/Pearl_Diver.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Pearl Diver) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/3/3b/Fishing_Village.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Fishing Village) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/8/8d/Scheme.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Scheme) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/6/6d/Warehouse.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Warehouse)
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Duchess, Pearl Diver, Fishing Village, Scheme, Warehouse, Ironworks, Worker's Village, Contraband, Highway, Outpost

Just finished playing this game. I opened 5/2, Highway/Pearl Diver. My plan was to get Highway/Ironworks going to win Highway split, gain a bunch of Worker's Village, and engineer a pile out. I don't know if I acquired my cards in the wrong order or what, but my opponent quickly won the Highway split 7-3 (after I opened one, damn). I considered conceding when he gained the last Highway. However, I kept playing, and realized he was giving me an opening. I piled Worker's Villages to accumulate +buy, hoping to eventually pile out Estates while he wasn't looking. Turns out, he screwed around getting platina and colonies and not paying any attention to piles, and not even picking up +buys of his own to go with his Highways. I eventually manage to sneak a victory, ending up with 7 Duchies and 11 Estates in my deck.

I'm posting this because of the idea of playing to your outs. I haven't read too much discussion on this type of scenario (perhaps I don't know where to find it?), but the idea that you construct a game plan around maximizing the very small probability to win the game, even if the expected result of the plan is a very bad deck. Here, after the Highway split, I felt like I had a very minimal chance of winning, but constructed a plan around finding that percentage and received help from a misplaying opponent to steal a win from a bad place. This is an aspect of Dominion that I don't feel gets discussed enough: changing plans mid-game to address a bad situation.
Title: Re: Playing to your outs
Post by: Dingan on January 21, 2016, 06:43:17 pm
I believe this kind of thing was discussed at somewhat-great length in this thread:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14182.0
That is, one might start lowering some piles when they are far behind, in hopes that they can "steal" the win on piles, as you mention.

I recently did something similar here:
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160121/log.0.1453353398834.txt
buying an Estate on my second-to-last turn, hoping that I could empty them in the next turn or 2 (which I did).

I fell victim to it here:
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20151112/log.0.1447313754347.txt

It happens more often than it probably should.  And yes, it is an under-discussed topic (and an under-utilized technique).
Title: Re: Playing to your outs
Post by: Titandrake on January 21, 2016, 07:23:41 pm
I agree this could be discussed more, with one caveat. For playing to your outs, it's not about hoping your opponent misplays, it's about hoping your opponent gets awful luck. There's an important distinction between the two: very often, your opponent doesn't mess up, or if they do it's a minor mistake that doesn't cost the game. But no one can prevent bad luck.

The very high level thinking process is figuring out what worlds let you win, and choosing the one that's most likely to happen. Ex: my opponent needs to have a dud turn or 2 duds in a row, so I'll build 1 more turn; if I don't get another turn I was going to lose anyway. I need both of the last 2 Provinces to win, so screw PPR, I'll buy a Province now. I'm leading in VP but will lose very quickly to the engine my opponent is building, so I need to 3-pile ASAP, even if that means buying Curses over several turns. (That last one actually happened me once, and choosing to buy VP instead of buying Curses/actions dropped my win chance by a lot.)

I don't like to assume my opponent will misplay unless I don't have any other way to win, because if they play correctly you seal your own fate and that's never fun.
Title: Re: Playing to your outs
Post by: Jack Rudd on January 21, 2016, 07:34:12 pm
I play bridge occasionally, and this is something that's very big in that game. There exist concepts such as the "safety play" (the play that will guarantee the contract against any layout of the unseen cards), which is pretty much the mirror image of what is being described in this thread.
Title: Re: Playing to your outs
Post by: Infthitbox on January 21, 2016, 07:39:00 pm
Quote from: Dingan on January 21, 2016, 06:43:17 pm
I believe this kind of thing was discussed at somewhat-great length in this thread:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14182.0
That is, one might start lowering some piles when they are far behind, in hopes that they can "steal" the win on piles, as you mention.

I recently did something similar here:
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160121/log.0.1453353398834.txt
buying an Estate on my second-to-last turn, hoping that I could empty them in the next turn or 2 (which I did).

I fell victim to it here:
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20151112/log.0.1447313754347.txt

It happens more often than it probably should.  And yes, it is an under-discussed topic (and an under-utilized technique).

Yeah, I remember the thread about lowing piles, but that thread and both your examples talk about 1-2 turns, which feels like tactics. I guess I'm more interested in longer term strategy when in a clear losing position. Unless I'm misreading here, the time at which the Highway split is decided (when I make the plan) is much "earlier" in the game then the other examples. Not to say that this isn't good stuff here, but its not quite what I'm looking for.

Quote from: Titandrake on January 21, 2016, 07:23:41 pm
I agree this could be discussed more, with one caveat. For playing to your outs, it's not about hoping your opponent misplays, it's about hoping your opponent gets awful luck. There's an important distinction between the two: very often, your opponent doesn't mess up, or if they do it's a minor mistake that doesn't cost the game. But no one can prevent bad luck.

The very high level thinking process is figuring out what worlds let you win, and choosing the one that's most likely to happen. Ex: my opponent needs to have a dud turn or 2 duds in a row, so I'll build 1 more turn; if I don't get another turn I was going to lose anyway. I need both of the last 2 Provinces to win, so screw PPR, I'll buy a Province now. I'm leading in VP but will lose very quickly to the engine my opponent is building, so I need to 3-pile ASAP, even if that means buying Curses over several turns. (That last one actually happened me once, and choosing to buy VP instead of buying Curses/actions dropped my win chance by a lot.)

I don't like to assume my opponent will misplay unless I don't have any other way to win, because if they play correctly you seal your own fate and that's never fun.

Well, in this case I don't think I have another out; I don't think a well-playing opponent with very bad shuffle luck will lose from that spot. I'm fine with playing to my out of my opponent playing poorly if that's a higher chance than their bad luck; I don't mind "sealing my fate" if it was the only chance I had of winning the game.
Title: Re: Playing to your outs
Post by: Titandrake on January 21, 2016, 07:50:40 pm
Quote from: Infthitbox on January 21, 2016, 07:39:00 pm
Quote from: Titandrake on January 21, 2016, 07:23:41 pm
I agree this could be discussed more, with one caveat. For playing to your outs, it's not about hoping your opponent misplays, it's about hoping your opponent gets awful luck. There's an important distinction between the two: very often, your opponent doesn't mess up, or if they do it's a minor mistake that doesn't cost the game. But no one can prevent bad luck.

The very high level thinking process is figuring out what worlds let you win, and choosing the one that's most likely to happen. Ex: my opponent needs to have a dud turn or 2 duds in a row, so I'll build 1 more turn; if I don't get another turn I was going to lose anyway. I need both of the last 2 Provinces to win, so screw PPR, I'll buy a Province now. I'm leading in VP but will lose very quickly to the engine my opponent is building, so I need to 3-pile ASAP, even if that means buying Curses over several turns. (That last one actually happened me once, and choosing to buy VP instead of buying Curses/actions dropped my win chance by a lot.)

I don't like to assume my opponent will misplay unless I don't have any other way to win, because if they play correctly you seal your own fate and that's never fun.

Well, in this case I don't think I have another out; I don't think a well-playing opponent with very bad shuffle luck will lose from that spot. I'm fine with playing to my out of my opponent playing poorly if that's a higher chance than their bad luck; I don't mind "sealing my fate" if it was the only chance I had of winning the game.

Quote from: Titandrake on January 21, 2016, 07:23:41 pm
I don't like to assume my opponent will misplay unless I don't have any other way to win, because if they play correctly you seal your own fate and that's never fun.

(Okay, so maybe I should have said "unless the alternatives are too unlikely", but I like the phrasing I used better.)
Title: Re: Playing to your outs
Post by: Dingan on January 21, 2016, 07:58:13 pm
Quote from: Titandrake on January 21, 2016, 07:23:41 pm
I agree this could be discussed more, with one caveat. For playing to your outs, it's not about hoping your opponent misplays, it's about hoping your opponent gets awful luck. There's an important distinction between the two: very often, your opponent doesn't mess up, or if they do it's a minor mistake that doesn't cost the game. But no one can prevent bad luck.

The very high level thinking process is figuring out what worlds let you win, and choosing the one that's most likely to happen. Ex: my opponent needs to have a dud turn or 2 duds in a row, so I'll build 1 more turn; if I don't get another turn I was going to lose anyway. I need both of the last 2 Provinces to win, so screw PPR, I'll buy a Province now. I'm leading in VP but will lose very quickly to the engine my opponent is building, so I need to 3-pile ASAP, even if that means buying Curses over several turns. (That last one actually happened me once, and choosing to buy VP instead of buying Curses/actions dropped my win chance by a lot.)

I don't like to assume my opponent will misplay unless I don't have any other way to win, because if they play correctly you seal your own fate and that's never fun.

Nobody plays 100% optimally all the time. (For that matter, there is no way to even determine what "optimal" is.) We are all bad players. Bots are bad players. We make mistakes. If the absolute only way I win this game, with 100% certainty, is I do x and my opponent doesn't realize y, then I'll do x now and hope they don't realize y.  Of course, you should never rely on this from the get-go. But recognizing you're in such a situation once you're in it, as opposed to not, can win you a non-zero amount of games.
Title: Re: Playing to your outs
Post by: Titandrake on January 21, 2016, 08:13:06 pm
Quote from: Dingan on January 21, 2016, 07:58:13 pm
If the absolute only way I win this game, with 100% certainty, is I do x and my opponent doesn't realize y, then I'll do x now and hope they don't realize y.  Of course, you should never rely on this from the get-go. But recognizing you're in such a situation once you're in it, as opposed to not, can win you a non-zero amount of games.

Quote from: Titandrake on January 21, 2016, 07:23:41 pm
I don't like to assume my opponent will misplay unless I don't have any other way to win, because if they play correctly you seal your own fate and that's never fun.