Dominion Strategy Forum

Dominion => Dominion General Discussion => Topic started by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:35:56 pm

Title: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:35:56 pm

Everybody loves the card rankings that Qvist puts out, but I've always secretly wondered how these lists compare to the way the top players really play the cards.

So I've collected over 90,000 game logs of the top 100 Dominion players on the Isotrophish rankings (2-player, pro rating, no bots) and analyzed them to determine how the best players in the world approach the cards. Obviously there are a lot of differing opinions on the best way to determine which of two cards is better. The method I've chosen is to measure the percentage of kingdoms containing card X where the top-100 player gains card X. If card X really is one of the best cards, then it should be bought on almost every kingdom where it is available. The nice thing about measuring cards this way is that it puts cards like Cultist (where you usually want as many as possible) and Chapel (where you usually only want one) on equal footing.

The list below orders the cards by how often they are gained. In the next couple posts, I'm planning on splitting these by cost and comparing them to Qvist's card lists.

Rank	Card	% games gained	# games gained	# games available
1	Tournament	95.4%	7467	7825
2	Governor	93.0%	2417	2598
3	Border Village	89.3%	6708	7512
4	Fishing Village	89.2%	7006	7854
5	Wharf	89.0%	7092	7965
6	Forager	88.7%	7094	7999
7	Goons	88.4%	7053	7979
8	Masquerade	87.7%	7031	8015
9	Chapel	87.6%	8408	9596
10	Ironmonger	87.2%	6947	7970
11	Mountebank	86.9%	6757	7779
12	Ambassador	83.6%	6757	8078
13	Squire	83.4%	6452	7732
14	Hamlet	83.2%	6564	7892
15	Plaza	82.7%	5953	7196
16	Warehouse	82.6%	6674	8084
17	Hunting Party	81.1%	6246	7705
18	Candlestick Maker	80.9%	5859	7242
19	King's Court	80.8%	6276	7769
20	Black Market	80.6%	2729	3386
21	Minion	80.1%	6252	7807
22	Wandering Minstrel	79.4%	6215	7828
23	Crossroads	79.2%	6112	7713
24	Swindler	79.1%	6447	8147
25	Cultist	79.0%	6103	7730
26	Market Square	78.9%	6162	7813
27	Nobles	78.8%	6284	7978
28	Caravan	78.3%	6029	7698
29	Hermit	78.3%	6232	7964
30	Counterfeit	78.2%	6107	7805
31	Worker's Village	77.8%	6055	7778
32	Steward	77.7%	6282	8083
33	Menagerie	77.7%	6100	7854
34	Urchin	77.1%	6126	7947
35	City	77.0%	6146	7985
36	Butcher	76.5%	5317	6954
37	Witch	76.4%	7123	9323
38	Grand Market	75.8%	6179	8156
39	Scheme	75.6%	6016	7954
40	Remake	75.2%	5689	7566
41	JackOfAllTrades	74.9%	5929	7911
42	Upgrade	74.9%	6005	8013
43	Lighthouse	74.4%	5877	7898
44	Rebuild	74.4%	5800	7800
45	Herald	74.3%	5315	7153
46	Shanty Town	73.9%	5996	8118
47	Peddler	72.8%	5649	7755
48	Junk Dealer	72.5%	5792	7984
49	Spice Merchant	72.1%	5549	7692
50	Knights	71.8%	5530	7698
51	Stables	71.8%	5668	7896
52	Courtyard	71.7%	5741	8005
53	Tunnel	71.3%	5640	7913
54	Island	70.9%	5594	7891
55	Festival	70.7%	6534	9245
56	Throne Room	70.5%	6517	9241
57	Margrave	70.4%	5485	7793
58	Highway	70.0%	5451	7791
59	Haggler	69.5%	5382	7744
60	Laboratory	69.1%	6234	9018
61	Great Hall	69.1%	5804	8397
62	Conspirator	69.0%	5438	7880
63	Fool's Gold	68.2%	5415	7936
64	Fortress	68.1%	5316	7807
65	Oasis	68.0%	5305	7798
66	Salvager	68.0%	5357	7880
67	Baker	67.5%	4824	7150
68	Scrying Pool	67.4%	5142	7634
69	Cellar	67.3%	6418	9533
70	Bazaar	67.2%	5326	7930
71	Village	67.1%	6354	9464
72	Apprentice	66.8%	5105	7643
73	Mining Village	66.2%	5264	7952
74	Tactician	66.2%	5214	7879
75	Stonemason	66.2%	4883	7381
76	Haven	65.8%	5152	7830
77	Farming Village	65.8%	5103	7760
78	Marauder	65.7%	5086	7739
79	Vagrant	65.5%	5350	8164
80	Bridge	65.5%	5203	7946
81	Bandit Camp	65.2%	5279	8096
82	Soothsayer	65.0%	4617	7100
83	University	64.9%	4919	7574
84	Sea Hag	64.7%	5068	7829
85	Pawn	63.7%	4975	7807
86	Militia	62.8%	5750	9161
87	Horse Traders	62.7%	4972	7933
88	Monument	62.2%	5001	8044
89	Inn	61.7%	4816	7810
90	Watchtower	61.5%	4916	7990
91	Market	61.3%	5720	9327
92	Native Village	61.2%	4781	7814
93	Gardens	60.6%	5620	9271
94	Walled Village	60.6%	797	1315
95	Familiar	60.0%	4553	7592
96	Torturer	59.9%	4663	7782
97	Ill-Gotten Gains	59.9%	4591	7664
98	Ironworks	59.9%	4832	8073
99	Count	59.8%	4607	7700
100	Altar	59.7%	4726	7916
101	Ghost Ship	58.6%	4550	7760
102	Hoard	58.2%	4765	8182
103	Bishop	57.9%	4598	7935
104	Quarry	56.8%	4470	7876
105	Sage	56.6%	4517	7987
106	Lookout	56.0%	4420	7888
107	Merchant Guild	55.5%	3869	6972
108	Wishing Well	55.4%	4504	8126
109	Farmland	54.6%	4263	7812
110	Doctor	54.6%	3887	7124
111	Remodel	54.2%	5088	9394
112	Trade Route	54.1%	4366	8070
113	Alchemist	52.9%	3986	7534
114	Silk Road	52.7%	4094	7772
115	Young Witch	52.6%	4029	7666
116	Jester	52.5%	4023	7658
117	Moneylender	51.9%	4917	9466
118	Smugglers	51.0%	4066	7965
119	Advisor	50.7%	3609	7115
120	Pearl Diver	50.2%	4021	8014
121	Embassy	48.7%	3734	7669
122	Embargo	48.4%	3902	8059
123	Expand	48.4%	3848	7957
124	Smithy	48.1%	4491	9341
125	Cartographer	47.9%	3623	7556
126	Storeroom	47.8%	3806	7958
127	Duke	47.7%	3731	7823
128	Council Room	47.7%	4444	9326
129	Fairgrounds	47.5%	3749	7892
130	Rabble	47.3%	3701	7832
131	Vineyard	47.2%	3578	7588
132	Apothecary	47.1%	3570	7575
133	Harem	46.7%	3687	7902
134	Vault	46.6%	3677	7888
135	Catacombs	46.4%	3568	7685
136	Mint	46.1%	3655	7936
137	Trading Post	45.3%	3585	7907
138	Band of Misfits	45.2%	3457	7646
139	Hunting Grounds	45.0%	3515	7805
140	Scavenger	44.9%	3570	7958
141	Oracle	44.9%	3521	7849
142	Treasury	44.2%	3424	7743
143	Horn of Plenty	44.0%	3409	7750
144	Forge	43.9%	3496	7970
145	Moat	43.7%	4160	9516
146	Trader	43.7%	3352	7676
147	Prince	43.4%	289	666
148	Envoy	43.1%	795	1843
149	Journeyman	42.2%	3005	7129
150	Baron	41.7%	3330	7984
151	Nomad Camp	41.2%	3165	7686
152	Loan	41.0%	3333	8127
153	Golem	40.4%	3032	7503
154	Feodum	40.4%	3102	7687
155	Duchess	40.1%	3117	7773
156	Possession	37.8%	2815	7452
157	Procession	37.7%	2907	7714
158	Mystic	37.5%	2926	7806
159	Bank	36.9%	3011	8149
160	Develop	36.4%	2900	7965
161	Workshop	35.3%	3286	9319
162	Cutpurse	34.9%	2719	7791
163	Library	34.6%	3242	9358
164	Armory	34.6%	2742	7935
165	Rats	34.4%	2696	7843
166	Rogue	33.2%	2520	7588
167	Venture	33.2%	2657	8002
168	Poor House	32.0%	2521	7871
169	Pillage	30.7%	2402	7815
170	Graverobber	30.7%	2381	7752
171	Fortune Teller	29.7%	2354	7919
172	Outpost	29.6%	2344	7906
173	Beggar	29.4%	2306	7840
174	Feast	29.3%	2683	9159
175	Death Cart	29.2%	2287	7828
176	Talisman	28.8%	2292	7959
177	Merchant Ship	28.7%	2278	7931
178	Spy	28.4%	2621	9243
179	Woodcutter	27.6%	2622	9506
180	Herbalist	26.2%	2061	7877
181	Secret Chamber	25.6%	2105	8235
182	Taxman	25.4%	1808	7114
183	Noble Brigand	24.9%	1939	7784
184	Masterpiece	24.6%	1797	7309
185	Tribute	23.5%	1815	7739
186	Saboteur	20.7%	1605	7772
187	Navigator	19.3%	1484	7692
188	Explorer	18.7%	1489	7943
189	Royal Seal	18.7%	1491	7994
190	Stash	16.9%	306	1811
191	Mine	16.7%	1572	9431
192	Treasure Map	16.2%	1294	7972
193	Mandarin	16.0%	1277	7998
194	Chancellor	13.7%	1305	9512
195	Bureaucrat	13.3%	1251	9395
196	Pirate Ship	12.9%	995	7705
197	Philosopher's Stone	12.1%	907	7518
198	Scout	11.2%	868	7739
199	Cache	11.2%	854	7627
200	Contraband	10.9%	865	7960
201	Coppersmith	10.2%	786	7734
202	Harvest	9.7%	759	7859
203	Thief	8.5%	777	9188
204	Counting House	8.3%	660	7916
205	Transmute	7.6%	584	7661
206	Adventurer	7.4%	684	9278

Title: $1 and $2 cost cards
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:37:05 pm

$1 and $2 cost cards

Rank	Card	+/- vs. Qvist	% games gained	# games gained	# games available
1	Chapel	0	87.6%	8408	9596
2	Squire	+3	83.4%	6452	7732
3	Hamlet	+1	83.2%	6564	7892
4	Candlestick Maker	+3	80.9%	5859	7242
5	Crossroads	+4	79.2%	6112	7713
6	Lighthouse	0	74.4%	5877	7898
7	Courtyard	-4	71.7%	5741	8005
8	Fool's Gold	-6	68.2%	5415	7936
9	Cellar	+4	67.3%	6418	9533
10	Stonemason	-2	66.2%	4883	7381
11	Haven	+1	65.8%	5152	7830
12	Vagrant	+4	65.5%	5350	8164
13	Pawn	-5	63.7%	4975	7807
14	Native Village	-4	61.2%	4781	7814
15	Pearl Diver	+5	50.2%	4021	8014
16	Embargo	-2	48.4%	3902	8059
17	Moat	0	43.7%	4160	9516
18	Duchess	+3	40.1%	3117	7773
19	Poor House	-4	32.0%	2521	7871
20	Beggar	-2	29.4%	2306	7840
21	Herbalist	-2	26.2%	2061	7877
22	Secret Chamber	0	25.6%	2105	8235

Title: $3 cost cards
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:37:35 pm

$3 cost cards

Rank	Card	+/- vs. Qvist	% games gained	# games gained	# games available
1	Fishing Village	+2	89.2%	7006	7854
2	Forager	+5	88.7%	7094	7999
3	Masquerade	-2	87.7%	7031	8015
4	Ambassador	-2	83.6%	6757	8078
5	Warehouse	+5	82.6%	6674	8084
6	Black Market	+12	80.6%	2729	3386
7	Swindler	-2	79.1%	6447	8147
8	Market Square	+5	78.9%	6162	7813
9	Hermit	0	78.3%	6232	7964
10	Steward	-6	77.7%	6282	8083
11	Menagerie	-5	77.7%	6100	7854
12	Urchin	-1	77.1%	6126	7947
13	Scheme	-1	75.6%	6016	7954
14	Shanty Town	+9	73.9%	5996	8118
15	Tunnel	+2	71.3%	5640	7913
16	Great Hall	+16	69.2%	5804	8397
17	Oasis	+2	68.0%	5305	7798
18	Village	-4	67.1%	6354	9464
19	Watchtower	-11	61.5%	4916	7990
20	Sage	+5	56.6%	4517	7987
21	Lookout	0	56.0%	4420	7888
22	Wishing Well	+2	55.4%	4504	8126
23	Doctor	-7	54.6%	3887	7124
24	Trade Route	+3	54.1%	4366	8070
25	Smugglers	+1	51.0%	4066	7965
26	Storeroom	-6	47.8%	3806	7958
27	Oracle	-12	44.9%	3521	7849
28	Loan	0	41.0%	3333	8127
29	Develop	+2	36.4%	2900	7965
30	Workshop	0	35.3%	3286	9319
31	Fortune Teller	-2	29.7%	2354	7919
32	Woodcutter	+1	27.6%	2622	9506
33	Masterpiece	-11	24.6%	1797	7309
34	Chancellor	0	13.7%	1305	9512

Title: $4 cost cards
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:38:07 pm

$4 cost cards

Rank	Card	+/- vs. Qvist	% games gained	# games gained	# games available
1	Tournament	+1	95.4%	7467	7825
2	Ironmonger	+3	87.2%	6947	7970
3	Plaza	+13	82.7%	5953	7196
4	Wandering Minstrel	+3	79.4%	6215	7828
5	Caravan	+7	78.3%	6029	7698
6	Worker's Village	+8	77.8%	6055	7778
7	Remake	-4	75.2%	5689	7566
8	JackOfAllTrades	-4	74.9%	5929	7911
9	Herald	+9	74.3%	5315	7153
10	Spice Merchant	+5	72.1%	5549	7692
11	Island	+26	70.9%	5594	7891
12	Throne Room	+5	70.5%	6517	9241
13	Conspirator	+7	69.0%	5438	7880
14	Fortress	+16	68.1%	5316	7807
15	Salvager	+6	68.0%	5357	7880
16	Mining Village	+17	66.2%	5264	7952
17	Farming Village	+11	65.8%	5103	7760
18	Marauder	-5	65.7%	5086	7739
19	Bridge	-9	65.5%	5203	7946
20	Sea Hag	-19	64.7%	5068	7829
21	Militia	-11	62.8%	5750	9161
22	Horse Traders	+2	62.7%	4972	7933
23	Monument	-15	62.2%	5001	8044
24	Gardens	+5	60.6%	5620	9271
25	Walled Village	+18	60.6%	797	1315
26	Ironworks	-4	59.9%	4832	8073
27	Bishop	-16	57.9%	4598	7935
28	Quarry	-5	56.8%	4470	7876
29	Remodel	+5	54.2%	5088	9394
30	Silk Road	+1	52.7%	4094	7772
31	Young Witch	-30	52.6%	4029	7666
32	Moneylender	-6	51.9%	4917	9466
33	Advisor	+6	50.7%	3609	7115
34	Smithy	-15	48.1%	4491	9341
35	Scavenger	-10	44.9%	3570	7958
36	Trader	+2	43.7%	3352	7676
37	Envoy	-10	43.1%	795	1843
38	Baron	-2	41.7%	3330	7984
39	Nomad Camp	+7	41.2%	3165	7686
40	Feodum	+2	40.3%	3102	7687
41	Procession	-6	37.7%	2907	7714
42	Cutpurse	-10	34.9%	2719	7791
43	Armory	-2	34.6%	2742	7935
44	Rats	+3	34.4%	2696	7843
45	Feast	+10	29.3%	2683	9159
46	Death Cart	-6	29.2%	2287	7828
47	Talisman	+1	28.8%	2292	7959
48	Spy	+3	28.4%	2621	9243
49	Taxman	-4	25.4%	1808	7114
50	Noble Brigand	-6	24.9%	1939	7784
51	Navigator	+1	19.3%	1484	7692
52	Treasure Map	+1	16.2%	1294	7972
53	Bureaucrat	-3	13.3%	1251	9395
54	Pirate Ship	-5	12.9%	995	7705
55	Scout	+2	11.2%	868	7739
56	Coppersmith	-2	10.2%	786	7734
57	Thief	-1	8.5%	777	9188

Title: $5 cost cards
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:38:54 pm

$5 cost cards

Rank	Card	+/- vs. Qvist	% games gained	# games gained	# games available
1	Governor	+7	93.0%	2417	2598
2	Wharf	+1	89.0%	7092	7965
3	Mountebank	-2	86.9%	6757	7779
4	Hunting Party	+2	81.1%	6246	7705
5	Minion	+4	80.1%	6252	7807
6	Cultist	-2	79.0%	6103	7730
7	Counterfeit	+5	78.2%	6107	7805
8	City	+29	77.0%	6146	7985
9	Butcher	+12	76.4%	5317	6954
10	Witch	-5	76.4%	7123	9323
11	Upgrade	+4	74.9%	6005	8013
12	Rebuild	-10	74.4%	5800	7800
13	Junk Dealer	-2	72.5%	5792	7984
14	Knights	+13	71.8%	5530	7698
15	Stables	+7	71.8%	5668	7896
16	Festival	+22	70.7%	6534	9245
17	Margrave	-3	70.4%	5485	7793
18	Highway	+7	70.0%	5451	7791
19	Haggler	19	69.5%	5382	7744
20	Laboratory	0	69.1%	6234	9018
21	Baker	+2	67.5%	4824	7150
22	Bazaar	+6	67.2%	5326	7930
23	Apprentice	-6	66.8%	5105	7643
24	Tactician	-8	66.2%	5214	7879
25	Bandit Camp	+5	65.2%	5279	8096
26	Soothsayer	-8	65.0%	4617	7100
27	Inn	+16	61.7%	4816	7810
28	Market	+12	61.3%	5720	9327
29	Torturer	-21	59.9%	4663	7782
30	Ill-Gotten Gains	-20	59.9%	4591	7664
31	Count	+1	59.8%	4607	7700
32	Ghost Ship	-20	58.6%	4550	7760
33	Merchant Guild	+8	55.5%	3869	6972
34	Jester	0	52.5%	4023	7658
35	Embassy	-11	48.7%	3734	7669
36	Cartographer	+3	47.9%	3623	7556
37	Duke	-11	47.7%	3731	7823
38	Council Room	+4	47.7%	4444	9326
39	Rabble	-6	47.3%	3701	7832
40	Vault	-11	46.6%	3677	7888
41	Catacombs	-5	46.4%	3568	7685
42	Mint	+11	46.1%	3655	7936
43	Trading Post	+6	45.3%	3585	7907
44	Band of Misfits	0	45.2%	3457	7646
45	Treasury	+3	44.2%	3424	7743
46	Horn of Plenty	-15	44.0%	3409	7750
47	Journeyman	-12	42.2%	3005	7129
48	Mystic	-2	37.5%	2926	7806
49	Library	-4	34.6%	3242	9358
50	Rogue	+4	33.2%	2520	7588
51	Venture	-1	33.2%	2657	8002
52	Pillage	-1	30.7%	2402	7815
53	Graverobber	-1	30.7%	2381	7752
54	Outpost	+2	29.6%	2344	7906
55	Merchant Ship	-8	28.7%	2278	7931
56	Tribute	-1	23.5%	1815	7739
57	Saboteur	+4	20.7%	1605	7772
58	Explorer	0	18.7%	1489	7943
59	Royal Seal	+1	18.7%	1491	7994
60	Stash	+2	16.9%	306	1811
61	Mine	-2	16.7%	1572	9431
62	Mandarin	-5	16.0%	1277	7998
63	Cache	+1	11.2%	854	7627
64	Contraband	-1	10.9%	865	7960
65	Harvest	0	9.7%	759	7859
66	Counting House	0	8.3%	660	7916

Title: $6+ cost cards
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:39:42 pm

$6+ cost cards

Rank	Card	+/- vs. Qvist	% games gained	# games gained	# games available
1	Border Village	+3	89.3%	6708	7512
2	Goons	0	88.4%	7053	7979
3	King's Court	-2	80.8%	6276	7769
4	Nobles	+2	78.8%	6284	7978
5	Grand Market	-2	75.8%	6179	8156
6	Peddler	+1	72.8%	5649	7755
7	Altar	-2	59.7%	4726	7916
8	Hoard	+1	58.2%	4765	8182
9	Farmland	+6	54.6%	4263	7812
10	Expand	+4	48.4%	3848	7957
11	Fairgrounds	-3	47.5%	3749	7892
12	Harem	+1	46.7%	3687	7902
13	Hunting Grounds	-3	45.0%	3515	7805
14	Forge	-2	43.9%	3496	7970
15	Prince	n/a	43.4%	289	666
16	Bank	-5	36.9%	3011	8149
17	Adventurer	-1	7.3%	684	9278

Title: Potion cost cards
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:40:14 pm

Potion cost cards

Rank	Card	+/- vs. Qvist	% games gained	# games gained	# games available
1	Scrying Pool	0	67.3%	5142	7634
2	University	+4	64.9%	4919	7574
3	Familiar	-1	60.0%	4553	7592
4	Alchemist	0	52.9%	3986	7534
5	Vineyard	-2	47.2%	3578	7588
6	Apothecary	-1	47.1%	3570	7575
7	Golem	0	40.4%	3032	7503
8	Possession	0	37.8%	2815	7452
9	Philosopher's Stone	0	12.1%	907	7518
10	Transmute	0	7.6%	584	7661

Title: Prizes
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 04:40:40 pm

Prizes

Rank	Card	+/- vs. Qvist	% games gained	# games gained	# games available
1	Followers	0	43.1%	3372	7825
2	Trusty Steed	0	43.1%	3369	7825
3	Princess	0	30.7%	2402	7825
4	Bag of Gold	0	18.9%	1479	7825
5	Diadem	0	15.8%	1240	7825

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: theory on January 05, 2015, 04:50:30 pm

Do you distinguish between voluntary gain and forced gain (i.e., Swindler)? Doubt it'll have much impact but mostly just curious. Throwing in the base cards (Copper, Curse, Estate, etc.) might be interesting too.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on January 05, 2015, 04:52:38 pm

Thanks for doing this! It's always fun to see this kind of stuff!

One issue with this particular analysis at least in terms of comparing it to Qvist's lists is that how often you gain a cards is not the same as how good you think it is. For example, cards you buy in the late game, like VP cards you may buy in a lot of games, but for not much impact, since you never actually draw the card.

The couple obvious major trends I see are:
1. Villages are much higher than ranked. I think this is because people don't think of the villages as being that important. There are so many villages and they are all about the same. But really, they are really important most of the time they show up.
2. Some attacks are much lower than ranked. The attacks feel super important because they affect the way you approach the game, but a lot of the time, you don't actually need to buy the attack. It's role was really just to discourage certain strategies (in particular strategies that don't build enough before greening to withstand the potential attack).

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 04:55:31 pm

It's worth keeping in mind that Qvist's lists include a lot of rankings from players not in the top 100. He puts some weight based on player rank but I don't know what the formula is.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Jack Rudd on January 05, 2015, 05:02:19 pm

There are also some cards that are very board-sensitive. Torturer is a good example; it's really good when there are Villages and nothing special when there aren't, so it's bought only some of the time. But when it's good, it's really good, and the Qvist rankings are basing its place on that.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 05:05:46 pm

Quote from: theory on January 05, 2015, 04:50:30 pm

Do you distinguish between voluntary gain and forced gain (i.e., Swindler)? Doubt it'll have much impact but mostly just curious. Throwing in the base cards (Copper, Curse, Estate, etc.) might be interesting too.

I don't currently have a way of differentiating those two simply from the information in the logs, especially because sometimes the forced gain is desired, a la Border Village or Catacombs. But I expect that the effect is quite minor, especially since the majority of forced gains in attacks are with base cards.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: liopoil on January 05, 2015, 05:21:35 pm

All the copper cards are underrated, apothecary and cache the most criminally. Cache is below scout and apothecary is below 131 other cards... copper is an excellent card, people!

Edit: for games with 2 top 100 players, did you count both?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Tables on January 05, 2015, 05:22:22 pm

One big effect you have to bear in mind is that some cards are ones you can easily add in to a deck, or which can feature in lots of different strategies in small ways - for example, most cantrips. Others, such as many terminals, tend to be bought because they're more important and significant.

Have a look at which cards have gained and which have lost places. There's exceptions, obviously, but mostly non-terminals (and especially cantrips) have gained places, while terminals have lost them.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Awaclus on January 05, 2015, 05:26:36 pm

Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 04:55:31 pm

I don't know what the formula is.

Let's ask AI!

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: liopoil on January 05, 2015, 05:31:25 pm

How many different kingdom cards are bought on average? Looks like 5 or 6. Also looks like only about say 15% of boards are BM boards, given the frequency that cards that are always bad in BM are bought.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Jack Rudd on January 05, 2015, 05:37:28 pm

Quote from: Tables on January 05, 2015, 05:22:22 pm

Have a look at which cards have gained and which have lost places. There's exceptions, obviously, but mostly non-terminals (and especially cantrips) have gained places, while terminals have lost them.

Biggest gains:

$1/2 Pearl Diver +5
$3 Great Hall +16
$4 Island +26
$5 City +29
$6+ Farmland +6
$P University +4

Everything in that list is either a non-terminal or a victory card, and Great Hall is both.

Biggest losses:

$2 Fool's Gold -6
$3 Oracle -12
$4 Young Witch -30
$5 Torturer -21
$6+ Bank -5
$P Vineyard -2

Three terminal Attacks, two kingdom treasures and Vineyard.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Tables on January 05, 2015, 05:37:54 pm

Just doing some quick and dirty analysis, I worked out the average number of ranks gained by being (non) terminal with this method, and got the following numbers:

Non terminals gained ~4.3 ranks
Terminals lost ~2.8 ranks

So that one simple fact accounts for quite a bit. Like I said, this analysis was very quick and I make a lot of simplifications (I ignored all victory and treasure cards, as well as some, uh, variably terminal cards like Throne Room or Tribute, without removing the ranks they affected, and I'm using all the cards (except potion costs) when there's different numbers of cards of each cost, which messes things around) - but I think the point it makes is clear. Or perhaps it isn't. You could argue that people, on the whole, undervalue non-terminals... but I'd say it's just that non-terminals are easier to fit into more decks, and can be bought in larger quantities more easily.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Jack Rudd on January 05, 2015, 05:43:48 pm

Quote from: Tables on January 05, 2015, 05:37:54 pm

Non terminals gained ~4.3 ranks
Terminals lost ~2.8 ranks

Villages probably gained even more than the ~4.3 they get for being non-terminal; there are only two that lost (Native Village and Village).

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 05:45:33 pm

Quote from: Awaclus on January 05, 2015, 05:26:36 pm

Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 04:55:31 pm
I don't know what the formula is.

Let's ask AI!

He wouldn't know! Because I'm talking about the formula Qvist uses to create his ranking list, he weights votes based on iso level.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: liopoil on January 05, 2015, 05:57:43 pm

Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 05:45:33 pm

Quote from: Awaclus on January 05, 2015, 05:26:36 pm
Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 04:55:31 pm
I don't know what the formula is.

Let's ask AI!

He wouldn't know! Because I'm talking about the formula Qvist uses to create his ranking list, he weights votes based on iso level.

Yes. AI is well known for having reverse-engineered the goko rating system which supposedly "can't be put into a formula". Awaclus is referencing that, saying that AI could reverse-engineer the formula Qvist uses to create his ranking lists. This is funny because one would not normally ask AI about Qvist's list; you would just ask Qvist. Now you can surely better appreciate Awaclus' joke because I have explained it to you.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: werothegreat on January 05, 2015, 06:01:00 pm

I'm rather surprised that Plaza is the most bought Guilds card.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 06:01:23 pm

Quote from: liopoil on January 05, 2015, 05:57:43 pm

Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 05:45:33 pm
Quote from: Awaclus on January 05, 2015, 05:26:36 pm
Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 04:55:31 pm
I don't know what the formula is.

Let's ask AI!

He wouldn't know! Because I'm talking about the formula Qvist uses to create his ranking list, he weights votes based on iso level.
Yes. AI is well known for having reverse-engineered the goko rating system which supposedly "can't be put into a formula". Awaclus is referencing that, saying that AI could reverse-engineer the formula Qvist uses to create his ranking lists. This is funny because one would not normally ask AI about Qvist's list; you would just ask Qvist. Now you can surely better appreciate Awaclus' joke because I have explained it to you.

These explanation "jokes" are worse than spam. But I do like Awaclus' post now that I get it.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Titandrake on January 05, 2015, 06:07:35 pm

I'm surprised Adventurer/Transmute even made 7%. Like, really? I suppose ~1 out of 14 games is still pretty rare.

Apothecary also feels too low, although I love that card. Cache feels correct, note that it's really hard to justify outside of slogs.

Border Village > Goons is also really surprising to me. Both cards are really nice and likely to get picked up, but I find it hard to believe Goons is more skippable than BV. My guess is that when greening late game, people do BV -> gain Duchy on $6 and that skews it just enough to edge out Goons.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: SCSN on January 05, 2015, 06:28:51 pm

Quote from: Titandrake on January 05, 2015, 06:07:35 pm

I'm surprised Adventurer/Transmute even made 7%. Like, really? I suppose ~1 out of 14 games is still pretty rare.

That's why the claim that involuntary gaining is negligible is nonsense (it's like saying that jackpot winners have a negligible share in the total lottery pay-outs because there are so few of them), at least when we're considering cards like this and not the usual powerhouses. If the hosting player has all the cards, ~4.4% of games containing Adventurer also contain Swindler, which makes for a surprisingly popular combo. You can also deduce from the sample sizes that a significant portion of the games are played with less than all the sets, and that Intrigue is the most popular one other than base, so that the Swindler/Adventurer combo will feature disproportionally often.

I wouldn't be surprised if Swindler alone accounts for as much as half of the Adventurer gains. Add Colony games, Fool's Gold, Horn of Plenty and Fairgrounds to your consideration, and Adventurer's popularity should be a bit less surprising.

I'd say Transmute gets bought mainly when you go for other Potion cards but miss and figure it's better than nothing.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: jsh357 on January 05, 2015, 06:29:16 pm

Quote from: werothegreat on January 05, 2015, 06:01:00 pm

I'm rather surprised that Plaza is the most bought Guilds card.

Well, it's a village. Fishing Village is bought more than Ambassador too!

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: silvern on January 05, 2015, 06:32:06 pm

So, does ordering a list based strictly on how often each card is gained really provide the most accurate definition of "best cards"? My thought is that some very high ranked cards on this list (a.k.a forager) are not actually that powerful, it's just that they almost never hurt (especially when they are often simply competing with silver).
EDIT: not that this list claimed to be the definitive best cards, but it provides some interesting context when comparing w/ the Qvist list.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on January 05, 2015, 06:34:07 pm

Quote from: Titandrake on January 05, 2015, 06:07:35 pm

Border Village > Goons is also really surprising to me. Both cards are really nice and likely to get picked up, but I find it hard to believe Goons is more skippable than BV. My guess is that when greening late game, people do BV -> gain Duchy on $6 and that skews it just enough to edge out Goons.

There are games in which you want BV but not Goons, but not vice versa.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Jack Rudd on January 05, 2015, 06:50:35 pm

I note with some amusement that the card whose gain rate is closest to 50% is Pearl Diver. A wonderfully average score for a wonderfully average cantrip.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Beyond Awesome on January 05, 2015, 06:58:52 pm

Quote from: HiveMindEmulator on January 05, 2015, 04:52:38 pm

Thanks for doing this! It's always fun to see this kind of stuff!

One issue with this particular analysis at least in terms of comparing it to Qvist's lists is that how often you gain a cards is not the same as how good you think it is. For example, cards you buy in the late game, like VP cards you may buy in a lot of games, but for not much impact, since you never actually draw the card.

The couple obvious major trends I see are:
1. Villages are much higher than ranked. I think this is because people don't think of the villages as being that important. There are so many villages and they are all about the same. But really, they are really important most of the time they show up.
2. Some attacks are much lower than ranked. The attacks feel super important because they affect the way you approach the game, but a lot of the time, you don't actually need to buy the attack. It's role was really just to discourage certain strategies (in particular strategies that don't build enough before greening to withstand the potential attack).

I disagree with what you say on villages. The thing is that we have lots and lots of villages to choose from. Thus, when accounting supply and demand there is more than enough supply of villages to meet demand. Now, if villages were less common then yes, the villages should be ranked higher on Qvists list, but we have enough villages to choose from that the importance of any single village is negligible. With that said, a few villages are power players like Fishing Village, Plaza and Minstrel.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Awaclus on January 05, 2015, 07:09:25 pm

Quote from: SheCantSayNo on January 05, 2015, 06:28:51 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if Swindler alone accounts for as much as half of the Adventurer gains. Add Colony games, Fool's Gold, Horn of Plenty and Fairgrounds to your consideration, and Adventurer's popularity should be a bit less surprising.

And Procession.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on January 05, 2015, 07:17:12 pm

Quote from: Beyond Awesome on January 05, 2015, 06:58:52 pm

Quote from: HiveMindEmulator on January 05, 2015, 04:52:38 pm
Thanks for doing this! It's always fun to see this kind of stuff!

One issue with this particular analysis at least in terms of comparing it to Qvist's lists is that how often you gain a cards is not the same as how good you think it is. For example, cards you buy in the late game, like VP cards you may buy in a lot of games, but for not much impact, since you never actually draw the card.

The couple obvious major trends I see are:
1. Villages are much higher than ranked. I think this is because people don't think of the villages as being that important. There are so many villages and they are all about the same. But really, they are really important most of the time they show up.
2. Some attacks are much lower than ranked. The attacks feel super important because they affect the way you approach the game, but a lot of the time, you don't actually need to buy the attack. It's role was really just to discourage certain strategies (in particular strategies that don't build enough before greening to withstand the potential attack).

I disagree with what you say on villages. The thing is that we have lots and lots of villages to choose from. Thus, when accounting supply and demand there is more than enough supply of villages to meet demand. Now, if villages were less common then yes, the villages should be ranked higher on Qvists list, but we have enough villages to choose from that the importance of any single village is negligible. With that said, a few villages are power players like Fishing Village, Plaza and Minstrel.

That's the thing. If there were 30 kingdom cards, then sure we'd have a ton of villages. But there's only 10. A typical board won't have multiple villages, so whichever one shows up is really important.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: WanderingWinder on January 05, 2015, 07:27:48 pm

Quote from: silvern on January 05, 2015, 06:32:06 pm

So, does ordering a list based strictly on how often each card is gained really provide the most accurate definition of "best cards"?

No, but I don't think Forager is a good example of that. You're looking for some "doesn't hurt" cantrip, a la Great Hall or Pearl Diver.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: silvern on January 05, 2015, 07:38:57 pm

Quote from: WanderingWinder on January 05, 2015, 07:27:48 pm

Quote from: silvern on January 05, 2015, 06:32:06 pm
So, does ordering a list based strictly on how often each card is gained really provide the most accurate definition of "best cards"?

No, but I don't think Forager is a good example of that. You're looking for some "doesn't hurt" cantrip, a la Great Hall or Pearl Diver.

Agreed, it just jumped out to me as a prime, abnormally high example--certainly I don't think it's better than Goons or Masquerade.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: blueblimp on January 05, 2015, 08:48:14 pm

Quote from: Tables on January 05, 2015, 05:37:54 pm

You could argue that people, on the whole, undervalue non-terminals... but I'd say it's just that non-terminals are easier to fit into more decks, and can be bought in larger quantities more easily.

Another way of putting this is that terminals in the same kingdom have to compete for the limited capacity of most decks for terminals (even in engine decks where you're less concerned about terminal collision), while non-terminals, especially those that draw, don't really compete with each other because if there are two that are both good, you can just buy a few of both.

This means a good terminal can be crowded out by an even stronger terminal, but that crowding effect is smaller for non-terminals.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: TheOthin on January 05, 2015, 08:54:28 pm

Certainly, when terminals can end up undesirable for that reason while non-terminals are still plenty viable to add to a deck, that's a big point for non-terminals that may not have been given enough credit on the rankings.

One other thing that catches my attention is Sea Hag. It's not the biggest point change, but that kind of fall from first place is very striking.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: liopoil on January 05, 2015, 08:57:02 pm

Do you have any data about win rates with/without gaining specific cards? This would suggest which cards are under/over rated.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: liopoil on January 05, 2015, 09:03:22 pm

Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 06:01:23 pm

Quote from: liopoil on January 05, 2015, 05:57:43 pm
Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 05:45:33 pm
Quote from: Awaclus on January 05, 2015, 05:26:36 pm
Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 05, 2015, 04:55:31 pm
I don't know what the formula is.

Let's ask AI!

He wouldn't know! Because I'm talking about the formula Qvist uses to create his ranking list, he weights votes based on iso level.
Yes. AI is well known for having reverse-engineered the goko rating system which supposedly "can't be put into a formula". Awaclus is referencing that, saying that AI could reverse-engineer the formula Qvist uses to create his ranking lists. This is funny because one would not normally ask AI about Qvist's list; you would just ask Qvist. Now you can surely better appreciate Awaclus' joke because I have explained it to you.
These explanation "jokes" are worse than spam. But I do like Awaclus' post now that I get it.

Worse than spam when they helped you understand what Awaclus meant? When there isn't anyone who didn't get the joke of course they're silly, but when someone misses it they're at least helpful. I'd ask you if I need to explain why my post was funny, but I don't think my post was particularly funny.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: AdamH on January 05, 2015, 09:27:00 pm

I just want to say that these numbers are super interesting. I'm glad you took the time to put this together.

There's probably a lot we can discover about biases we have when playing the game vs. biases we have when ranking the cards from this (terminal vs. non-terminal).

It makes me happy that Sea Hag took such a hit. I think it's very educational which cards have taken the biggest hits and which have gained the most. We should take into account terminal vs. non-terminal and other biases we find, of course, but the big outliers can probably tell us something about how we view these cards.

If I get a chance I'll take a look at these numbers and see if I can draw any relevant conclusions, but no promises on that; I may not come up with anything useful to say.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 09:38:12 pm

Quote from: SheCantSayNo on January 05, 2015, 06:28:51 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if Swindler alone accounts for as much as half of the Adventurer gains. Add Colony games, Fool's Gold, Horn of Plenty and Fairgrounds to your consideration, and Adventurer's popularity should be a bit less surprising.

Since you made me curious, here are the top 20 forced gains from Swindler. Surprisingly this explains at most about 10% of games where a top 100 player gains Adventurer.

1	Curse	5357
2	Estate	3115
3	Silver	1992
4	Duchy	1584
5	Gold	1383
6	Province	849
7	Copper	763
8	Swindler	591
9	Potion	467
10	Chancellor	164
11	Masterpiece	148
12	Loan	134
13	Doctor	130
14	Woodcutter	118
15	Lookout	115
16	Ruins	103
17	Develop	101
18	Platinum	95
19	King's Court	94
20	Mine	93
	...
31	Adventurer	67

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: TheOthin on January 05, 2015, 09:45:40 pm

Is it possible to distinguish between Province and Colony games in the data?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: SCSN on January 05, 2015, 09:54:21 pm

Quote from: grsbmd on January 05, 2015, 09:38:12 pm

Quote from: SheCantSayNo on January 05, 2015, 06:28:51 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if Swindler alone accounts for as much as half of the Adventurer gains. Add Colony games, Fool's Gold, Horn of Plenty and Fairgrounds to your consideration, and Adventurer's popularity should be a bit less surprising.

Since you made me curious, here are the top 20 forced gains from Swindler. Surprisingly this explains at most about 10% of games where a top 100 player gains Adventurer.

Damn you! Sorry fellow conspirators, I did what I could to prevent the public from finding out that Adventurer is the key to the top 100 :(

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: ben_king on January 05, 2015, 10:06:44 pm

Quote from: liopoil

for games with 2 top 100 players, did you count both?

Yes, if there are two top-100 players, then each kingdom card is counted as being available once for each player.

Quote from: liopoil

How many different kingdom cards are bought on average? Looks like 5 or 6. Also looks like only about say 15% of boards are BM boards, given the frequency that cards that are always bad in BM are bought.

Not sure if this is exactly what you're asking, but 9.85 differently named cards (modulo me grouping the Ruins and Knights together) are gained per player per game.

Quote from: liopoil

Do you have any data about win rates with/without gaining specific cards? This would suggest which cards are under/over rated.

Maybe I'll do this next. It should be pretty straightfoward.

Quote from: TheOthin

Is it possible to distinguish between Province and Colony games in the data?

Yeah, I can just look at whether Colony is in the supply. What did you have in mind?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Gherald on January 05, 2015, 10:38:06 pm

For the Colony question, I'd imagine breaking those out into a separate set of data and looking at how all your tables vary compared to the Colony-less games

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: AJD on January 05, 2015, 11:38:29 pm

Quote from: SheCantSayNo on January 05, 2015, 06:28:51 pm

Quote from: Titandrake on January 05, 2015, 06:07:35 pm
I'm surprised Adventurer/Transmute even made 7%. Like, really? I suppose ~1 out of 14 games is still pretty rare.

I wouldn't be surprised if Swindler alone accounts for as much as half of the Adventurer gains. Add Colony games, Fool's Gold, Horn of Plenty and Fairgrounds to your consideration, and Adventurer's popularity should be a bit less surprising.

Also sometimes you just need to buy a card, and Adventurer's the one that's there. I played a game a couple days ago in which I bought an Adventurer because I wanted something I could draw with Scrying Pool and then trash with Bishop.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: JacquesTheBard on January 06, 2015, 02:04:30 am

Grsbmd, thank you for compiling this data. Something I don't think we've commented on yet is the most surprising thing of all to me: comparison of different cards with similar functions. For example, Walled Village greatly exceeds Procession on the $4 list, Shanty Town (my least favorite card) ranks above Village, and the $6 list puts Farmland above Fairgrounds. I understand a village rising in the rankings compared to a terminal, but for one village to excel against a better village is baffling. Certainly Walled Village has reliability over Procession, but Village also has reliability over Shanty Town. I can sort of understand Farmland's rise due to the use it has in the endgame (although that makes Stonemason's lower rank pretty unusual) but Fairgrounds is one of the most respected alt-VP cards on the forum. These are just the major examples to me, but does anyone else see reversal of ranks between cards with similar effects?

The $3 trashers look like another area for this.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on January 06, 2015, 02:35:00 am

^
Procession is really situational, and not really a village, so it doesn't really compare to real villages.

Regarding Village vs Shanty Town: Imagine a board in which you go for Village. Now suppose Shanty Town is there instead. Most of the time, you go for the same strategy, but with Shanty Town instead. However, there are boards in which Shanty Town is useful and Village is not.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: c4master on January 06, 2015, 06:48:14 am

Quote from: HiveMindEmulator on January 06, 2015, 02:35:00 am

^
Procession is really situational, and not really a village, so it doesn't really compare to real villages.

Regarding Village vs Shanty Town: Imagine a board in which you go for Village. Now suppose Shanty Town is there instead. Most of the time, you go for the same strategy, but with Shanty Town instead. However, there are boards in which Shanty Town is useful and Village is not.

And Shanty Town is a better opener than Village. So if both are available, you might still get both, even though later on Village becomes stronger.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: TheOthin on January 06, 2015, 07:15:15 am

I wonder what would be the odds of Village having at least as many different boards where it's worthwhile, yet Shanty Town getting picked up more often because of its boards randomly showing up more often.

Shanty Town may also just be more distinctive. It seems like either one is probably going to get bought if it's the only cheap village, so when won't they be bought? For Village, other villages can often take on its same purpose but better. For Shanty Town, on the other hand, its potential handsize increase is not shared with the other villages, so it can stay prominent. The effect seems worse than a reliable +1 Card, but not if you have an excess of Actions, either through other villages or just the board being filled with non-terminals. And those are precisely the situations where Shanty Town's village status would be least likely to guarantee it a spot in your deck. With that in mind, it really does make sense that it's a card you'd want to pick up a solid majority of the time it's available, doesn't it?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Beyond Awesome on January 06, 2015, 08:25:49 am

Personally, I prefer Shanty Town over Village most of the time, and I open with it a lot of times. It is so good when you open with it because the majority of time its a la for $3 and then if you play it and get actions afterwards, it also acts as a village. Shanty Town took me a while to figure out, but the key is simply to not get too many of them (usually). Village offers no benefit except adding +Action. Usually, other villages will be on the board.

As far as Walled Village over Procession. There are a lot of games, I don't need it. Sometimes, keeping the actions is more important than throning them and maybe getting something that costs $1 more. There are situations where Procession is really good. But, you are more likely to have a use for Walled Village over Procession. However, I would put Walled Villages useful pretty much on the same level as vanilla village. Also, not many people own Walled Village. It is the least owned promo among players. The sample size is very small for that card. I know some games, people might buy it because they never played with it before.

Also, Governor is towards the top, but if you see the sample size, it is more limited due to being harder to get as a promo that you can't pay cash for.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Moneymodel on January 06, 2015, 12:29:10 pm

Quote from: SheCantSayNo on January 05, 2015, 09:54:21 pm

Damn you! Sorry fellow conspirators, I did what I could to prevent the public from finding out that Adventurer is the key to the top 100 :(

(http://i.imgur.com/7fISaXB.jpg)

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: JacquesTheBard on January 06, 2015, 02:39:43 pm

Most of the comments on Shanty Town seem to boil down to "Shanty Town > Village." I don't buy it: there is no board with both in which I would touch Shanty Town with a 10 foot pole. Doesn't it not draw more often than it does draw? It's easily the best village if your cards line up exactly right, but given how reliability mattered so much with the relative ranking of the other cards, like Procession, this list becomes even more confusing.

Sorry to seem so bitter about this, but if I'm just straight up wrong about Shanty Town being bad, it's a bit of a blow to my Dominion ego. If Shanty Town is a good card and I still hate it as much as I do, doesn't that make me a stupid and incompetent player?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: LastFootnote on January 06, 2015, 02:45:59 pm

Quote from: JacquesTheBard on January 06, 2015, 02:39:43 pm

Most of the comments on Shanty Town seem to boil down to "Shanty Town > Village." I don't buy it: there is no board with both in which I would touch Shanty Town with a 10 foot pole. Doesn't it not draw more often than it does draw? It's easily the best village if your cards line up exactly right, but given how reliability mattered so much with the relative ranking of the other cards, like Procession, this list becomes even more confusing.

Sorry to seem so bitter about this, but if I'm just straight up wrong about Shanty Town being bad, it's a bit of a blow to my Dominion ego. If Shanty Town is a good card and I still hate it as much as I do, doesn't that make me a stupid and incompetent player?

Shanty Town is great if you're really lucky!

But more seriously, I prefer Shanty Town to Village when there is little to no trashing. In those cases Shanty Town fires more often than not. There are also some rare cases where an early glut of Actions makes Shanty Town reliable. Like, play a Crossroads early and then play all your terminals in your hand and play the Shanty Town last. Draw more cards and repeat. I had that work for me recently, but maybe I just got lucky.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Beyond Awesome on January 06, 2015, 03:24:34 pm

Shanty Town is a very good card to open with.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: JacquesTheBard on January 06, 2015, 04:07:28 pm

Okay, those are pretty good arguments. I'll be more open-minded to using the card in the future, I suppose.

On a subjective level, though, I still enjoy playing with a typical +1 Card village on most boards. Weird question: is it "wrong" for me to prefer using a card that the forum considers bad? If I naively opened Scout on a 4/3, is that something to be ashamed of? Am I reading too much into this?

I would still rather see Procession on the board than Walled Village. I would rather see a Village than a Shanty Town, or a Fairgrounds than a Farmland. That better Dominion players than I seem to feel the opposite makes me feel embarrassed and stupid, like I'm doing a disservice to the game and its strategy by preferring the wrong cards. Does anyone else ever experience this?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: TheOthin on January 06, 2015, 04:13:50 pm

The thing to keep in mind that this "would rather see on the board" is very different from "would be most likely to buy when it shows up". Shanty Town is a great example of this, actually. If you're trying to build an engine with a bunch of terminals and there's only one village, your engine would be much better if that village was Village rather than Shanty Town. But that difference probably won't stop you from buying Shanty Town, so it's basically irrelevant to this data.

This raises a big question, when comparing to the rankings, of whether this is a bug or a feature.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: markusin on January 06, 2015, 04:15:28 pm

You know, in the presence of other villages, Shanty Town acts as a Lab a lot more reliably. Basically you can pick up both Villages and Shanty Towns, expecially if one runs out. Shanty town has the advantage of being more useful when action density is low. I think you'd rather have +1 card Villages for Smithy-Village type engines, but there are plenty of other kinds of engines that can use Shanty Town to good effect. Even with an abundance of +actions though, you want to minimize Shanty Town collisions with itself, so be sure to limit how many of them you get.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: TheOthin on January 06, 2015, 04:22:14 pm

Funny thing about the Shanty Town collisions. Shanty Town does block other Shanty Towns from working, but if two collide and one gets blocked by the other but the second one activates, you get +2 Cards for two Shanty Towns, much like if they were both Villages. There are other problems like having to get other Actions out of your hand (which the extra Shanty Town helps mitigate) and of course you're averaging fewer than one card per Shanty Town if you collide more than two together. But it does reduce the concern.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: markusin on January 06, 2015, 04:29:05 pm

Quote from: TheOthin on January 06, 2015, 04:22:14 pm

Funny thing about the Shanty Town collisions. Shanty Town does block other Shanty Towns from working, but if two collide and one gets blocked by the other but the second one activates, you get +2 Cards for two Shanty Towns, much like if they were both Villages. There are other problems like having to get other Actions out of your hand (which the extra Shanty Town helps mitigate) and of course you're averaging fewer than one card per Shanty Town if you collide more than two together. But it does reduce the concern.

That's right. The issue is you'd need to rely on this kind of collision for it to be better than Necropolis if Shanty Town was your only village and you want to play multiple terminals every turn. Also a hand of 2 terminals and 2 Shanty Towns is awful.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: TheOthin on January 06, 2015, 07:57:47 pm

Hmm. So we've noticed how non-terminals and especially villages are bought much more often than the rankings suggest, but there's another trend that stands out and seems linked: terminal draw takes a lot of hits, especially Torturer. A lot of Attacks fell relative to the rankings, especially junkers, and Torturer in particular really requires support to get multiple plays. But simpler terminal draw like Smithy and Watchtower also fell a lot. Terminal draw is especially dependent on villages, and I'm thinking they may have been overrated due to taking village support for granted, the same reasoning that may have lead to underrating villages themselves.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: eHalcyon on January 06, 2015, 09:52:53 pm

Quote from: Beyond Awesome on January 06, 2015, 08:25:49 am

Also, not many people own Walled Village. It is the least owned promo among players. The sample size is very small for that card. I know some games, people might buy it because they never played with it before.

Since the data is from top 100 players, I doubt people are buying them for the sake of novelty.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Awaclus on January 06, 2015, 10:07:44 pm

Quote from: eHalcyon on January 06, 2015, 09:52:53 pm

Quote from: Beyond Awesome on January 06, 2015, 08:25:49 am
Also, not many people own Walled Village. It is the least owned promo among players. The sample size is very small for that card. I know some games, people might buy it because they never played with it before.

Since the data is from top 100 players, I doubt people are buying them for the sake of novelty.

Well, there probably is a decent number of people there who never played on Iso. I think it's unlikely that the effect is big enough to make a significant difference, but some people are probably buying it more when it's in the game because they rarely play with it.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: liopoil on January 06, 2015, 10:42:50 pm

Prince is definitely inflated by the novelty factor. Top 100 or not, I'm making the cool new card work.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: eHalcyon on January 06, 2015, 10:50:22 pm

Prince, sure. But Walled Village is neither new nor particularly interesting, so I wouldn't expect novelty to push it much. Prince is both the newest card and also crazy enough to want to try, even if it's no good on that board.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Titandrake on January 06, 2015, 11:33:41 pm

As a top 100 player, I buy cards for novelty a lot more than I should. Give me a plausible argument for buying Bureaucrat or Taxman and I'll go for it and lose...

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on January 06, 2015, 11:51:44 pm

Quote from: Titandrake on January 06, 2015, 11:33:41 pm

As a top 100 player, I buy cards for novelty a lot more than I should. Give me a plausible argument for buying Bureaucrat or Taxman and I'll go for it and lose...

This. Top 100 doesn't mean you're trying to do the best thing all the time.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: eHalcyon on January 07, 2015, 12:51:05 am

OK, but I'm still not buying it for Walled Village. :P

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Titandrake on January 07, 2015, 02:07:41 am

Quote from: eHalcyon on January 07, 2015, 12:51:05 am

OK, but I'm still not buying it for Walled Village. :P

Alright, that's fair. Walled Village is still the lowest +2 Actions card, only Tribute is lower and that's conditional, and that makes sense to me. However, it's still good enough to be worth picking up if there aren't other villages, which is why it's so high up.

Procession is so low because it's just not quite there on enough boards. I also think it's still not very well understood, it's difficult to decide if a Procession deck is good enough unless it's very blatant, and riskier cards will be bought less often.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: BraveBear on January 07, 2015, 09:09:04 am

I'm surprised there are almost 900 kingdoms out there that someone thought it was okay not to buy wharf.....

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on January 07, 2015, 01:42:53 pm

Quote from: Titandrake on January 07, 2015, 02:07:41 am

Procession is so low because it's just not quite there on enough boards. I also think it's still not very well understood, it's difficult to decide if a Procession deck is good enough unless it's very blatant, and riskier cards will be bought less often.

I would think that the effect of avoiding cards that are not well understood and wanted to try to make them work might somewhat cancel each other out.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: luser on January 07, 2015, 04:13:37 pm

Could you generate same statistic for people with different levels to see what weaker players over/underrate?

As for ranking problem is that it measures how often is card addition to deck rather than how good it is.

So you need to take results with grain of salt. Inspired by village/shanty town discussion I could also prove.

That probably best card is silver as its bought in almost all games.
Without considering involuntary gain ruins would be one of best cards.
That duchess is better than merchant ship.
That moat is better than journeyman.
That hamlet is second best village.

It reminds me councilroom statistics that could be used for similar conclusions. For example best buy was curse as everybody who bought curse won.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on January 08, 2015, 12:11:18 am

Quote from: luser on January 07, 2015, 04:13:37 pm

That hamlet is second best village.

Hamlet is the 4th ranked village on the list, and it's better than all the ones below it. Cheapness is a very valuable asset for villages.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: ben_king on January 08, 2015, 12:56:52 am

Quote from: luser on January 07, 2015, 04:13:37 pm

Could you generate same statistic for people with different levels to see what weaker players over/underrate?

I actually have this data calculated and ready to report. Would the mods prefer that I post it in this topic or create a new topic for it?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Donald X. on January 08, 2015, 01:40:11 am

Quote from: grsbmd on January 08, 2015, 12:56:52 am

Quote from: luser on January 07, 2015, 04:13:37 pm
Could you generate same statistic for people with different levels to see what weaker players over/underrate?

I actually have this data calculated and ready to report. Would the mods prefer that I post it in this topic or create a new topic for it?

This place is not so heavily moderated for this to be an issue. Look in your heart.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: jsh357 on January 08, 2015, 07:38:02 am

Quote from: HiveMindEmulator on January 08, 2015, 12:11:18 am

Quote from: luser on January 07, 2015, 04:13:37 pm
That hamlet is second best village.
Hamlet is the 4th ranked village on the list, and it's better than all the ones below it. Cheapness is a very valuable asset for villages.

I disagree. Having to discard cards is a pretty big disadvantage a lot of the time, especially if your engine relies on cards that draw 2 cards. Hamlet is a killer card for disappearing hand engines, and it of course comes through in a pinch, but generally I'd prefer a $4 reliable village in most decks.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Awaclus on January 08, 2015, 07:53:56 am

Quote from: jsh357 on January 08, 2015, 07:38:02 am

especially if your engine relies on cards that draw 2 cards.

It probably shouldn't.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: jsh357 on January 08, 2015, 08:02:19 am

Quote from: Awaclus on January 08, 2015, 07:53:56 am

Quote from: jsh357 on January 08, 2015, 07:38:02 am
especially if your engine relies on cards that draw 2 cards.

It probably shouldn't.

No, but plenty of times it does. With trashing, 2 card draw is acceptable.

However, even with better draw options, discarding from Hamlet can hurt, even if it's just a Copper.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Beyond Awesome on January 08, 2015, 08:23:22 am

Quote from: jsh357 on January 08, 2015, 07:38:02 am

Quote from: HiveMindEmulator on January 08, 2015, 12:11:18 am
Quote from: luser on January 07, 2015, 04:13:37 pm
That hamlet is second best village.
Hamlet is the 4th ranked village on the list, and it's better than all the ones below it. Cheapness is a very valuable asset for villages.

I disagree. Having to discard cards is a pretty big disadvantage a lot of the time, especially if your engine relies on cards that draw 2 cards. Hamlet is a killer card for disappearing hand engines, and it of course comes through in a pinch, but generally I'd prefer a $4 reliable village in most decks.

This is so true.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on January 08, 2015, 10:35:47 am

Quote from: jsh357 on January 08, 2015, 07:38:02 am

I disagree. Having to discard cards is a pretty big disadvantage a lot of the time, especially if your engine relies on cards that draw 2 cards. Hamlet is a killer card for disappearing hand engines, and it of course comes through in a pinch, but generally I'd prefer a $4 reliable village in most decks.

Of course you'd rather *have* a $4 village. That's why they cost $4 instead of $2. I'd also rather *have* Farming/Mining Village than Village, but Village is still better. The ease with which you can *get* Hamlets (especially since they give +buy) is a big part of what makes them good. Add that to the situations in which the discarding is a benefit, and you have an overall stronger card. That's why it's higher on the list. It did not gain 16 percentage points over vanilla Village just because of random $2 hands in non-engines.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Holger on January 28, 2015, 10:51:34 am

Quote from: grsbmd on January 05, 2015, 04:35:56 pm

Everybody loves the card rankings that Qvist puts out, but I've always secretly wondered how these lists compare to the way the top players really play the cards.

So I've collected over 90,000 game logs of the top 100 Dominion players on the Isotrophish rankings (2-player, pro rating, no bots) and analyzed them to determine how the best players in the world approach the cards.

Thanks for the great work!

I'm quite surprised that Rebuild was only gained in 74% of games.
Did you use all the game logs of the current top 100 players, or only those that were played by a player while they were in the top 100 (which would probably be much more work...)? And did you use a time cut-off (e.g. only games played in the last 12 months) or did you go back till the beginning of Goko?
Either could explain Rebuild's low gain rate (since it was massively underestimated when new), and the first possibility might also explain the high gain rate of the very worst cards.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: liopoil on January 28, 2015, 03:25:58 pm

74% feels right. 26% of boards have a good engine, that's all.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: ben_king on January 28, 2015, 03:42:09 pm

Quote from: Holger on January 28, 2015, 10:51:34 am

Thanks for the great work!

I'm quite surprised that Rebuild was only gained in 74% of games.
Did you use all the game logs of the current top 100 players, or only those that were played by a player while they were in the top 100 (which would probably be much more work...)? And did you use a time cut-off (e.g. only games played in the last 12 months) or did you go back till the beginning of Goko?
Either could explain Rebuild's low gain rate (since it was massively underestimated when new), and the first possibility might also explain the high gain rate of the very worst cards.

Thanks. The data set I used had all games of current top 100 players -- I don't think there's a way on gokosalvager to figure out what their rank was at the time the game was played. And it goes as far back as the gokosalvager logs go. I'm not sure if that's all the way back to the start of Goko or not (I would guess that it's not).

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Holger on January 29, 2015, 05:32:08 am

Quote from: grsbmd on January 28, 2015, 03:42:09 pm

Quote from: Holger on January 28, 2015, 10:51:34 am
Thanks for the great work!

I'm quite surprised that Rebuild was only gained in 74% of games.
Did you use all the game logs of the current top 100 players, or only those that were played by a player while they were in the top 100 (which would probably be much more work...)? And did you use a time cut-off (e.g. only games played in the last 12 months) or did you go back till the beginning of Goko?
Either could explain Rebuild's low gain rate (since it was massively underestimated when new), and the first possibility might also explain the high gain rate of the very worst cards.

Thanks. The data set I used had all games of current top 100 players -- I don't think there's a way on gokosalvager to figure out what their rank was at the time the game was played. And it goes as far back as the gokosalvager logs go. I'm not sure if that's all the way back to the start of Goko or not (I would guess that it's not).

I think Goko's first months were not covered, the logs start around May, 2013. Since the strength of Rebuild (and to a lesser degree, other DA cards) only became "common knowledge" in late 2013, it would be interesting to only look at logs from 2014 onwards. Yes, accurately accounting for the top 100's rating changes is probably impossible, but you might want to discard e.g. the older half of the games each top 100 player played, to make it likely they were similarly strong when they played the games as they are now. But I don't know how much work that would be...

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: SCSN on January 29, 2015, 07:50:55 am

Quote from: Holger on January 29, 2015, 05:32:08 am

Since the strength of Rebuild (and to a lesser degree, other DA cards) only became "common knowledge" in late 2013

I don't think that's very relevant. The thing about good players (who should be overrepresented in the top 100) is that they realise that whatever manages to pass for "common knowledge" always lies somewhere between a disfigured caricature of the truth and misleading nonsense, so they just opt to use their own brain instead.

It took me personally about one game to figure out that Rebuild was powerful, and I left iso as a level 33, which is fairly mediocre. These are my Rebuild gainrates over different periods (I started out on Goko with Base+DA only, and gradually added the other expansions during the next two months):

03/15/2013 - 06/30/2013: 67 out of 76 pro games, or 88.2% of the time.
07/01/2013 - 12/31/2013: 108 out of 129 pro games, or 83.7% of the time.
01/01/2014 - 01/29/2015: 42 out of 57 pro games, or 73.3% of the time.

Before looking at my own data I thought that 74.4% was too low as well, but my own play convinces me enough to not have a strong opinion on the matter, and if a Dominion Oracle emerged who could resolve such issues and someone offered me to place a lot of money on "80% is closer to correct than 75%", I would politely decline.

The larger point, though, is that ~75% is still an insane amount for what is basically a single card strategy, to the point that there's little qualitative difference between "this card makes other cards irrelevant on 85% of boards" vs. "it does so only on 75% of them". If you look at the top 10 of this list--all cards gained more frequently than Rebuild--you'll see that none of these dictate a particular strategy on their own, not even Governor. In fact, many of them open up strategic possibilities, they are expansive rather than constrictive; whereas in the vast majority of Rebuild games the path is paved and your sole job consists in not diverting too much from the racing line.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: c4master on January 29, 2015, 09:36:10 am

I still think that 75% is a lot and maybe even too much. On games with Shelters, Rebuild is still a strategy, but not as good as usual. Thus, most of these board could offer other strategies. Then, there are knights who like to eat up Rebuilds and Duchies. Next on the list of cards disabling Rebuild could be strong junking attacks like Mountebank or Cultist.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Mic Qsenoch on January 29, 2015, 10:52:49 am

Quote from: c4master on January 29, 2015, 09:36:10 am

On games with Shelters, Rebuild is still a strategy, but not as good as usual.

SCSN! They keep saying it, they just won't stop saying it!

Junkers don't really disable Rebuild, though I guess Cultist specifically might hurt it enough and be able to get Provinces fast enough to beat it. I would guess in most Cursing games you just want Rebuild after you get your junker.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: SCSN on January 29, 2015, 12:06:32 pm

Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 29, 2015, 10:52:49 am

Quote from: c4master on January 29, 2015, 09:36:10 am
On games with Shelters, Rebuild is still a strategy, but not as good as usual.

SCSN! They keep saying it, they just won't stop saying it!

Quote from: SheCantSayNo on January 29, 2015, 07:50:55 am

"common knowledge" always lies somewhere between a disfigured caricature of the truth and misleading nonsense

Well, that took exactly one post for someone to chime in and illustrate the point!

Quote from: Mic Qsenoch on January 29, 2015, 10:52:49 am

Junkers don't really disable Rebuild, though I guess Cultist specifically might hurt it enough and be able to get Provinces fast enough to beat it. I would guess in most Cursing games you just want Rebuild after you get your junker.

Pure Rebuild (only buys Rebuilds, Yellows and Greens) beats Cultist-BM by something retardedly small like 51.5-48.5 over 200k games. Add any kind of non-trivial support (a powerhouse like Chancellor would certainly do) and it stops being close.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: AdamH on January 29, 2015, 12:48:14 pm

Quote from: SheCantSayNo on January 29, 2015, 12:06:32 pm

Pure Rebuild (only buys Rebuilds, Yellows and Greens) beats Cultist-BM by something small like 51.5-48.5 over 200k games. Add any kind of non-trivial support (a powerhouse like Chancellor would certainly do) and it stops being close.

What about adding Cultist itself? I feel like the relevant number here is how much Rebuild+Cultist beats Cultist-only and Rebuild-only by, and then how do you prioritize your buys?

I remember a lot of this discussion about Jack: "Jack is OP it beats Mountebank+BM!" but Jack+Mountebank is better and that's something you would actually play if this statistic is relevant. I keep holding out hope that Rebuild is much more interactive than we give it credit for (like Jack turned out to be), but if Rebuild-only beats Rebuild+Cultist (or it beats Rebuild+X for 100+ kingdom cards) then that's a dim hope.

And I feel like that's not a discussion that's ever been had. Everybody whines about how un-interactive Rebuild is but these numbers haven't been shown, and until they are I'm not convinced. I will hold on to this hope until it's properly dead and mutilated.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: SCSN on January 29, 2015, 06:32:34 pm

Quote from: AdamH on January 29, 2015, 12:48:14 pm

What about adding Cultist itself? I feel like the relevant number here is how much Rebuild+Cultist beats Cultist-only and Rebuild-only by, and then how do you prioritize your buys?

Rebuild+Cultist loses to both.

Quote

or it beats Rebuild+X for 100+ kingdom cards

Almost every kingdom contains an X for which Rebuild+X beats pure Rebuild (all terminal silvers except possibly Fortune Teller, for one; things like Scheme and Warehouse; Horse Traders, Jack, Baron), but the same holds for Big Money, and as with Big Money, you're still only playing a slightly stronger variant of essentially the same strategy. The only cards that bring some sort of qualitative change to a Rebuild strategy are Rogue, Graverobber, Duke, Tunnel and to some extend Feodum, and even these play pretty straightforward once you've figured them out.

Quote

And I feel like that's not a discussion that's ever been had. Everybody whines about how un-interactive Rebuild is but these numbers haven't been shown, and until they are I'm not convinced. I will hold on to this hope until it's properly dead and mutilated.

I've had these discussions in the early days, mostly with AI in private during playtesting for our article, then more (some in public I think) during the early Dominiate simulations and then even more within myself while testing variously competing things in the amazingly performing Dominulator.

The mirror article has been published and was later updated (as recently as 4.5 months ago) to include some qualitative guidelines based on the simulations. I've referenced other important results in various posts from mid-late 2013. Crude scripts for a bunch of Rebuild+X strategies are available in Dominiate (linked on gokosalvager.com), some more polished ones are included in Dominulator (available on GitHub).

For some reason almost no one seemed to care for the fine details, and various brands of fashionable nonsense--often asserted with proud conviction--continued to prosper. To my personal lamentation (and Mic's laughter) all my attempts to counter this have been an utter failure. I can certainly appreciate the funny side of it, but not without simultaneously experiencing this sense of bitterness that has replaced some of my former enthusiasm.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Titandrake on January 29, 2015, 06:45:34 pm

Maybe back when Iso was up, I would have been interested in the simulations for Rebuild + X. When I had access to all the cards, I played a lot of solo games to mess with card combinations, and the simulator was a nice shortcut for that. However, I've now realized that I prefer playing and learning Dominion in a very loose way. Try dumb strategies, find out which ones are less dumb. And most importantly do this against somebody else so that I get properly punished for doing something especially dumb.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: TheExpressicist on January 29, 2015, 06:46:44 pm

I'm not quite picking up on the context of this; would you mind clarifying, SCSN? What is it that you have been saying, and what is the fashionable nonsense?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: GeoLib on January 29, 2015, 07:35:07 pm

Quote from: TheExpressicist on January 29, 2015, 06:46:44 pm

I'm not quite picking up on the context of this; would you mind clarifying, SCSN? What is it that you have been saying, and what is the fashionable nonsense?

SCSN has done a lot of simulation to figure out how rebuild works with various modifications and people keep saying things like "rebuild is bad with shelters" despite the fact that he demonstrated that this was not true.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: liopoil on January 29, 2015, 08:02:12 pm

Okay, so, question: Rebuild is still slightly worse with shelters than without shelters, right?

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: eHalcyon on January 29, 2015, 08:26:19 pm

Quote from: liopoil on January 29, 2015, 08:02:12 pm

Okay, so, question: Rebuild is still slightly worse with shelters than without shelters, right?

SCSN's simulations showed that there was pretty much no difference.

Here's the article (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=8398.0). Shelters is just a small note at the end though.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: AdamH on January 30, 2015, 12:20:13 am

Quote from: SheCantSayNo on January 29, 2015, 06:32:34 pm

Quote from: AdamH on January 29, 2015, 12:48:14 pm
What about adding Cultist itself? I feel like the relevant number here is how much Rebuild+Cultist beats Cultist-only and Rebuild-only by, and then how do you prioritize your buys?

Rebuild+Cultist loses to both.

Well that's just sad. Judging from the amount of simulation work it appears you've done I think I believe that you programmed a competent Rebuild+Cultist bot, which means Rebuild just isn't a good card. It's so rare to see it really interact with other cards in interesting ways :(

I don't remember hearing anything about your simulation results or anything like that. Re-reading the article on mirrors it seems that some stuff was edited in. I was under the impression that Rebuild mirrors were pretty well studied and uncontested Rebuild was a little bit lacking, but maybe that's not the case anymore. I'd certainly like to know what's out there.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: c4master on January 30, 2015, 02:01:30 am

Quote from: eHalcyon on January 29, 2015, 08:26:19 pm

Quote from: liopoil on January 29, 2015, 08:02:12 pm
Okay, so, question: Rebuild is still slightly worse with shelters than without shelters, right?

SCSN's simulations showed that there was pretty much no difference.

Here's the article (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=8398.0). Shelters is just a small note at the end though.

Ok, thx. I didn'tre-read this article for quite some time.

I still wonder how shelters don't affect Rebuild. Or more likely: How they don't support other strategies as well. Rebuild then needs 2-3 extra buys which makes up for at least 2 extra turns, that's what I thought. Actually, trashing the green shelter will give you +1 Card maybe enabling a Duchy. And buying a Duchy enables trashing your hovel, so maybe that's why Rebuild is just as fast as usual. Still, I wonder how other strategies are not supported better than Rebuild.

I'd also like to know how effective trashing attacks (Swindler, Knights, Saboteur etc.) can be against Rebuild.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: Holger on January 30, 2015, 06:27:43 am

Quote from: c4master on January 30, 2015, 02:01:30 am

Quote from: eHalcyon on January 29, 2015, 08:26:19 pm
Quote from: liopoil on January 29, 2015, 08:02:12 pm
Okay, so, question: Rebuild is still slightly worse with shelters than without shelters, right?

SCSN's simulations showed that there was pretty much no difference.

Here's the article (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=8398.0). Shelters is just a small note at the end though.

Ok, thx. I didn'tre-read this article for quite some time.

I still wonder how shelters don't affect Rebuild. Or more likely: How they don't support other strategies as well. Rebuild then needs 2-3 extra buys which makes up for at least 2 extra turns, that's what I thought. Actually, trashing the green shelter will give you +1 Card maybe enabling a Duchy. And buying a Duchy enables trashing your hovel, so maybe that's why Rebuild is just as fast as usual. Still, I wonder how other strategies are not supported better than Rebuild.

Buying a single early Estate (or Duchy) is enough in shelter games, you can rebuild OE twice before it becomes a Duchy. If you should hit $2 during your first 4-5 turns, you don't have to waste a single good buy. The main disadvantage is having 1 (initially 2) useless dead cards, but that's not so bad.

Title: Re: Dominion Data Mining: Card Rankings
Post by: WanderingWinder on January 30, 2015, 07:22:25 am

The thing is that engines vs Rebuild still isn't terribly explored. They don't tend to simulate well, and they often need several different kingdom cards to reach full potential, so it's hard to necessarily translate from one board to the next. Make no mistake, it takes a fairly potent engine to overcome the VP-destruction powers of Rebuild, but it can happen.

Of note, the strongest things which help an engine vs Rebuild are probably Colony and Vineyard. Neither of them help other money strategies, though.