Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds
You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.
Okay, I can see that, still it seems a bigger gambit than I would usually take.You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.
In which case you don't play Sage and look forward to draw both TMs later, which has just become more probable.
To me it seems like a "what if 3rd TM cost $3" situation.
You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.
In which case you don't play Sage and look forward to draw both TMs later, which has just become more probable.
To me it seems like a "what if 3rd TM cost $3" situation.
Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?
Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?
I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.
Are you taking into account the fact that Sage can remove the Treasure Map from your draw pile and/or make the reshuffle happen earlier?Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?
I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.
Derivation: in this situation, the only sets of hands on which you won't hit $4 on the second shuffle are $3/$3, $3/$2, and $2/$3. So we can find the probability of these sets, and the chance you hit $4 is 1- [the sum of these probabilities].
Each of these can be derived with combinations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination#Number_of_k-combinations). For example, for $3/$3: the chance to get $3 on your first hand is C(7,3)*C(5,2)/C(12,5). Conditional on having exactly $3 on being your first hand, the chance to get $3 on the second hand is C(4,3)*C(3,2)/C(7,5).
The first terms in those expressions (e.g., C(7,3)) are based on the ways to order the Coppers, the second terms (e.g., C(5,2)) are based on the junk cards, and the third term (e.g., C(12,5)) is based on the number of ways to choose each hand. Multiply these two probabilities together and the chance to get $3/$3= 25/99.
Similarly, the chance of $3/$2= 25/198, and the chance of $2/$3 is 25/198. The chance of one of these sets is 50/99. So the chance you hit at least $4 is 1- 50/99, or 49/99.
Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?
I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.
No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.
I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.Are you taking into account the fact that Sage can remove the Treasure Map from your draw pile?
Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?
I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.
No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.
You're tacitly assuming that connecting them early means you'll automatically win; I'm pretty sure that on most boards opening double TM + double Sage is losing even if you were guaranteed to connect them on T5.
You know that you should not make bold propositions on forums.
On at least some of those boards a guaranteed T5 collison doesn't look nearly good enough: SCSN will crush you anyway by playing the better strategy. For example I'm pretty sure Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler is way too strong to play TM/Sage.
I'd love to see a stream of some of these games, though, to find out what SCSN can do with boards like the one in my OP, or the first in your list, both of which look very weak to me.
kingdom | SCSNs predicted win% |
Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute | 10% |
Vineyard, Vagrant, Sage, Urchin, Island, Moneylender, Rats, Treasure Map, Rabble, Harem | 50% |
Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank | 95% |
Pawn, Fishing Village, Menagerie, Sage, Woodcutter, JackOfAllTrades, Treasure Map, Counterfeit, Mystic, Rabble | 98% |
Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds | 90% |
Cellar, Loan, Sage, Bishop, Talisman, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Counting House, Embassy, Mystic | 30% |
Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar | 70% |
Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler | 98% |
Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal | 40% |
Duchess, Pearl Diver, Chancellor, Sage, Bridge, Horse Traders, Treasure Map, Bazaar, Counterfeit, Peddler | 30% |
Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.We already made that thread.
There doesn't seem to be any support for Vineyards.
Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds 90%
Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.We already made that thread.
Neither did that last post.Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.We already made that thread.
But they didn't explicitly reference strategy!
Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds 90%
Wow! I thought this was a weak board - what did I miss that has a 90% win rate against a T5 Treasure Map collision? Noble Brigand + money seems good against TM, but if you open NB and your opponent does something else it seems like you're in trouble. Maybe some kind of Fairgrounds thing? They can be worth 6 if you get everything but TM and Curse, and it will be hard for a TM player to pile Provinces alone. I guess the key must be Noble Brigand, to take away everything good your opponent has gotten. I did want to buy one of those during my game on this board, but never had a good opportunity. There was one turn (http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20140622/log.516d31dbe4b082c74d7b3391.1403482130139.txt#2-8) where my opponent hit $5 and I was praying he didn't notice the NB opportunity. As it turned out, my next two cards were both Gold, so I'm glad he didn't!
Going live (http://www.twitch.tv/shecantsayno)
We played these games, I won 6 of those and treasure map won 7. I proposed this challenge because I did not believed that with 8 card kingdoms there is likely something strong. My comments to games are following.
Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute
Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank, Platinum
Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar
Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler
Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal
Going live (http://www.twitch.tv/shecantsayno)
We played these games, I won 6 of those
Sorry, I used logsearch to count these and I did not notice that it shows also a cancelled one.Going live (http://www.twitch.tv/shecantsayno)
We played these games, I won 6 of those
Says the man who accuses me of making bold statements :D