Dominion Strategy Forum
Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: Jimmmmm on September 30, 2013, 12:20:39 am
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Monster Madness Mafia
Players
1. pingpongsam
2. Eevee
3. Archetype
4. Jorbles
5. WalrusMcFishSr
6. chairs
7. ashersky
8. theorel
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW Q, a Townie - lynched Day 1.
Co-mods: mail-mi, yuma
Day 1 start (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9533.msg299882#msg299882)
Day 2 start (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9533.msg304678#msg304678)
f.ds Mafia Ruleset
The Golden Rule:
Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.
Please read The Civility Pledge (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7695.0) before signing up for this game. If you have not /pledged there, you cannot play here.
Excessive personal attacks or uncivil behavior may be dealt with by modifiers or modkills.
General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind. Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. Personal communication outside of the forum postings is NOT ALLOWED unless your Role PM specifically allows it.
3. If you have a role with a Night action, your choices are due to all mods by the posted deadline (generally 48 hours from Night start during the first few Nights; later Nights may have shorter deadlines). If we do not receive your choice via PM your personal QT by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions. In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used. Generally, one team member may submit the Night Actions for all team members.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage), unless your Role PM specifically allows it.
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit “No Action" to let the Mods know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase, unless your Action is compulsory.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 24 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.
Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline. If no player has been lynched by the deadline, the player with the most votes is lynched. If there is a tie for most votes, no lynch occurs.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch. If no lynch occurs, the Mafia must attempt a kill the following night.
7. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post in the game or in shared Quicktopics, except for twilight. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent, but will be invited to the Spectator Quicktopic.
8. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others. If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.
9. Deadlines: This game will have 10-day Days and 48-hour Nights.
Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod. No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please inform the Mods privately. Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mods may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently. Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed. These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mods so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 48 hours of no activity or upon request after 24 hours of no activity. A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.
Helpful Links:
--Main Wiki Page (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page)
--Newbie Guide (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Newbie_Guide)
--Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=FAQ)
--Commonly Used Abbreviations (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Commonly_used_abbreviations)
--Mafia Theory (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Theory)
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM. IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
GAME-SPECIFIC INFORMATION LISTED IN NEXT POST
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Welcome, friends, to Monster Madness Mafia!
Please take a seat. You will all have a chance to show your heroism when the time comes. I'm here to debrief you so we can finally begin.
After dealing with the Mafia threats in all of your respective towns or cities or universes, you have come together to deal with this very great threat. Out of desperation, the Mafia have called together a collection of Monsters to help them take control. Together, you must defeat these Monsters and rid this part of the multiverse from Mafia scum for good. But, as always, the Mafia have infiltrated your ranks. Three of your number have betrayed the forces of Good and been recruited by the Mafia. They will work together with the Monsters to try to bring the Town to its knees, but must also fight against them so as not to give themselves away.
Each of you has been given a personal QT that will be used for all private communication with the Mods. These are separate from the shared Mafia QT, which will only be unlocked at Night.
Each Day you will be confronted with a new Monster. In order to fight these Monsters, each player will begin the game with some number of dice in their supply. Unless stated otherwise, all dice in the game are normal, fair, 6-sided dice.
Each Monster will have a different Reward for defeating it, and a different Threat for failing to do so. Details on these will not be publicly announced ahead of time, and may or may not be publicly announced when the Monster is defeated or otherwise. Each Monster will also have different rules for how to defeat it, which will include a target that must be reached. Threats are designed to be bad for Town and/or good for Mafia. Rewards are designed to be good for Town and/or bad for Mafia.
Once per Day, each player may roll any number of dice from their supply, by typing Roll: x in your personal QT, where x is the number of dice you wish to roll.
If you roll 1 die, you may either play it by typing Play: y in the game thread, or discard it by doing nothing. Played dice will count towards the target either by y as a default, or by the amount specified for the particular Monster. Discarded dice are gone from the game. There is no way to confirm what any other player has discarded.
If you roll 2 or more dice, you must play one. Failure to do so will have one randomly selected to be played for you.
If you roll 3 or more dice, you may also choose to store one by posting Store: y in your personal QT.
Updates of the number of dice in your supply and the values of stored dice will be provided as necessary in your personal QT.
After rolling, if you wish to or must play a die, you must do so as soon as possible. Once you have seen the result, please play the die you wish to play in your very next post. You may not disclose the result of your roll prior to playing the die. Failing to adhere to this may result in the die being discarded, or a random die being played, at my discretion.
It is imperative that you do not, either deliberately or accidentally, play a value that you have not rolled. Doing so accidentally may result in a penalty for yourself or your team, at my discretion. Repeated offenses, or any attempt to game the system by trying to play a value you have not rolled will be dealt with severely.
The only part of the combat process which takes place in the main thread is the playing part. All rolling, storing and discarding takes place in your personal QTs.
The Mods will update the current total score of the played dice as necessary.
When a player is lynched or the deadline is reached, any players who have rolled 2 or more dice but not played any will have a random die of theirs played. If the Total is equal to or greater than the Target, the monster is defeated. Either way, any dice that were played are discarded.
There are a few ways to use your stored dice. Instead of rolling new dice, you may simply play a die straight from your store. If you do so, two dice will be discarded from your supply.
There are also some Mafia-related actions that you can purchase with your stored dice. You may choose which dice are discarded, so long as the total on the dice add up to at least the cost of the action.
TOWN ONLY:
1-shot Vigilante: 10
1-shot Cop: 15
MAFIA ONLY:
1-shot Godfather: 18
1-shot Strongman: 12
EITHER:
1-shot Bulletproof: 10
Vigilante and Cop are used on the night they are purchased. The rest are used up only when needed. You will not be informed if and when they are used up. Cops will receive the result Town or Mafia. Each action may only be purchased once per player.
I am preparing to send your PMs now. At least one of you has a role related to fighting the Monsters. At least one of you does not. If you do not have a specific Monster-related role, do not fear! There is still plenty for you to do. There may or may not be traditional Mafia roles.
All roles which assist in fighting the Monsters have been distributed entirely independently of alignment. None of these roles are compulsory, and there is no way for a Townie to investigate another player's role.
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THE MONSTERS
Note: p is the current number of living players. xd6 is a number, the result of rolling x 6-sided dice. Eg 1d6 will be 1,2,3,4,5 or 6.
DRAGON
Target: 5p.
1s and 3s are doubled, 2s count negative.
Threat: DEVOUR.
Reward: VINDICATE.
GOBLIN
Target: 2p.
2s, 3s, 4s count negative.
Threat: SPY.
Reward: BAG OF PURITY.
ORC
Target: 4p.
If a 2 is played, the Orc automatically wins.
Threat: SPITE.
Reward: CLUE.
TROLL
Target: 24p.
The value on each die is squared.
Threat: STUN.
Reward: HEALING WATER.
WITCH
Target: 2p. 1d6 is added to the target whenever a die is played.
Threat: CURSE.
Reward: POTION.
OGRE
Target: p/2, rounded up.
Only 1s count.
Threat: PILLAGE.
Reward: TREASURE.
SUMMONER
Target: pd6, not revealed until Day end.
Threat: SUMMON.
Reward: COUNCIL.
SHADOW
Target: ?
Threat: ?
Reward: ?
This is actually the next Monster in disguise.
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Some example PMs:
(http://i.imgur.com/x97Zbt3.jpg)
Welcome, mail-mi. You are Luke Skywalker, a Townie.
You win when the Mafia has been eliminated, or nothing can prevent this from occurring.
Your personal QT is here: [QT link]
(http://i.imgur.com/3K2YLNy.png)
Welcome, yuma. You are Darth Vader, a Mafia Sith Lord, along with your fellow Mafia, [player1] and [player2].
Each Day you may use force-choke on a Monster.
You win when the Town has been eliminated, or nothing can prevent this from occurring.
During the pre-game and each Night, you may chat with your fellow Mafia members here: [QT link]
Your personal QT is here: [QT link]
A reminder that flavour character, alignment and roles related to fighting the Monsters are entirely independent. If Luke Skywalker had a role, Townie would read, for example, Town Jedi Knight.
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Day 1 is due to start around 3am forum time. If you have not done so, please post in a QT to confirm that you have received your PM and you are playing.
Please thoroughly read the rules prior to starting the game. If anything is unclear, please ask about it in your personal QT.
With the exception of non-players who simply want to /tag, Thread Locked.
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/comodtag
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Also, you may never provide your QT link to anyone else. This includes Mafia members, they may not provide their individual QT links to each other. A reminder that you are never allowed to quote anything you receive by PM or in a QT from a Mod. Paraphrasing is fine, as normal.
With the exception of non-players who simply want to /tag, Thread Locked.
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/yellow monster text very hard to read...try orange.
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/tag. I still have mod status, yes?
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/tag. I still have mod status, yes?
Yep.
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With the exception of non-players who simply want to /tag, Thread Locked.
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/tag
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/tag
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For anyone who's confused about how the Monsters work, I'll sum it up. You privately roll any number of dice that you have, then choose one of them to play and count towards reaching the target.
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A few rule updates based on questions I've received:
If you have fewer than 2 dice in your supply, you may still play a die from your store, and discard what you have.
Purchasing actions with stored dice does not require you to discard dice from your supply.
In general, you may only play one die per Day. This can either be by rolling from your supply or directly from your store.
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Apologies for the delay. Day 1 will start in 4-5 hours.
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Ash Ketchum, Astro Boy, Batman, Dipper Pines, Gabriel Knight, Ice King, Iron Man, Nathan Drake, Ned Stark, Q, Spike, Temeraire and Van Helsing stand gathered together. Suspicion is rife. They know evil is among them. Each is ready to fight. Many have hands on or near their weapon of choice, whether that be a gun, a Pokéball, a crossbow or a utility belt.
"Sir, I'm detecting a rather large..."
"I see it, Jarvis."
(http://imgur.com/PgetAhv.png)
A giant Cave Troll lumbers up to the group, with an enormous club in one hand. The club smashes into the ground in the middle of the group, but by the time it hits, the thirteen fighters have dashed out of the way. They surround the Troll, each preparing to fight and at the same time each wary of the other twelve.
(A reminder that flavour is entirely independent of role and alignment. I am more likely to refer to characters which I am more familiar with.)
A Troll has attacked!
Vote Count 1.0
not voting (13): pingpongsam, Eevee, Archetype, Jorbles, WalrusMcFishSr, chairs, ashersky, theorel, Voltaire, BoxOfDog, xeiron, faust, EFHW
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 0
Day 1 has begun!
Thread Unlocked.
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Play: 5
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So, finally it starts.
I think we should focus on the troll first.
Hopefully we have enough content to scumhunt afterwards, skipping the RVS- stage.
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Target: 312
Total: 25
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some discussion about dice strategy would be welcome. I'm very lost as to what to do with monsters.
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Some theory.
Rolls of 6 Is whats counts when defeating the troll.
We need eight 6'es and one 5 to win.
And we need more than one 3 and one 5 or two 4's to make up for one 6.
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With this troll it seems better to try and play high numbers. 6s are probably good.
If it's possible for anyone to roll above 6 it would make things a lot easier. (For instance if it were even possible for someone to roll a 17 we could beat it with just one more die roll (by combining dice rolls or rolling a d20 or something like that)). I have no idea if our abilities make such a thing possible, but Jimmmmm's description make me think that it is at least possible to roll better than a normal die number.
If it is possible I am not sure if it's worth it to out that you can do that at this point in the game though.
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Yeah, I'm with xeiron here...we should deal with the monster.
So, we should discuss some of what's going on here...
Let's see, monster is 24p = 312
So, players need to average a contribution of 24. Values are squared, so if everyone contributed a 5 we'd win. That's unlikely to be possible...so what's the effect of contributing a 6?
36-24=12. So that adds ~12 to someone's result, which means we need at least a 4, even if we roll a 6. Of course, multiple 6's can add together and all, but I'm trying to get a feel for about what we need.
IF every person got a result of 4-6 on their die, then assuming an even split among those numbers we'd win (with a bit to spare).
If everyone rolls 1 die, we've got ridiculous small chance of that working out (1/2)^13=0.01%
If everyone rolls 2 dice though, then you've got a 3/4 chance of getting a 4-6 result. Which is like a 2% chance of everyone contributing a 4-6.
If everyone rolls 3 dice we get 7/8 chance of 4-6 result which is a whopping 17% chance for everyone.
That's kind of fast and loose though.
If we get say 4 6's, 4 5's, and 4 4's out of 12 players we'd have 12*4+4-8*4=20 extra. So the last player could have a 2 and we'd still make it. Yeah, that's not engendering huge confidence.
We might have some powers that will help here...but, this looks pretty rough to me, from a loose probability viewpoint.
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I think we should organise the dice rolling in some way.
We could make a rolling queue so that no 1. roll and play, then no 2. do so after knowing the first result and so on.
This has the benefit of letting the late-roller know whether we are on the way to making the goal, whether we have already made (then there is no point in rolling) it or whether the first rolls were so weak we no longer have any chance to win (still no pont in rolling).
Obviously the players who rolls late has an advantage, so the challenge is for us to maximize the possibilty that scum roll early.
One possibility i can think of is rolling popcorn style. That is, one player rolls, plays and name the second person. The second person rolls, plays and name the third and so on.
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I like the popcorn style idea.
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I have.. No idea what's going! Time to read up on things!
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I have.. No idea what's going! Time to read up on things!
..on*
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As theorel said. We probably need to to roll three or four dice each if we want to make this. Three seems like a good number, as it allows for plaing one, storing one and discarding one die. Four dice seem a little too much to use day 1, and we stand a decent chance to make it with three. At least if we count in some monster-fighting powerroles. A die-roll of 7 would do wonders against the troll.
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Popcorn rolling sounds reasonably good to me. Hopefully we'll have some useful power somewhere along the line to make this more feasible.
At a glance, this monster seems like the best target for a ">6 result" if someone can achieve that.
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Hey everybody! This popcorn plan sounds reasonable especially considering I have no idea what I'm doing :) Although I was looking forward to blowing my dice supply on frivolous powers lol. I'll take a look at this in more detail when I get home from work this evening.
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+1 on popcorn.
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I'm here.
I have 2.5 plans.
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FOS all monster killing theory. Waste of time and is what scum wants instead of scum hunting.
PPS is the only towny person to post so far. He got it right. Play a big number, kill monster, move on. That's all there is to it.
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Popcorn doesn't work since we wait on mod for rolls.
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vote: BoxofDOG
Post about reading the setup just now is easily faked for towncred.
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vote:xeiron
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I'm here.
I have 2.5 plans.
Alright I'll bite, give us a plan.
Popcorn doesn't work since we wait on mod for rolls.
So what? We can still do it as long as we get started soon, we'll probably have more than enough time to get through it.
FOS all monster killing theory. Waste of time and is what scum wants instead of scum hunting.
PPS is the only towny person to post so far. He got it right. Play a big number, kill monster, move on. That's all there is to it.
I don't feel the same way about monster killing theory discussion at all. If we fail to kill monsters bad things happen to town. We need to discuss the best strategy for fighting each monster so that mafia can't pretend to misunderstand the rules and use that as an out for fighting monsters poorly.
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I don't feel the same way about monster killing theory discussion at all. If we fail to kill monsters bad things happen to town. We need to discuss the best strategy for fighting each monster so that mafia can't pretend to misunderstand the rules and use that as an out for fighting monsters poorly.
We need to kill the monsters. To do that, we need X+1 HPs, where X is the monster's life. The +1 can be +100 and we still kill it.
Roll a high number, play it, move on. Until we see a monster that requires more thought than that, we should NOT waste time talking about it.
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I'm here.
I have 2.5 plans.
Alright I'll bite, give us a plan.
Alrighty!
Plan #1: Everyone claims their flavor name. Copy and past the list below:
1. pingpongsam
2. Eevee
3. Archetype
4. Jorbles
5. WalrusMcFishSr
6. chairs
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
But ash, why? What purpose does it serve? We all know that flavor/character names do NOT indicate alignment or role. So there is no reason you cannot do this. As for reasons to do it, I'll reveal it as soon as we get this done. Do it in your next post (after reading this), please.
(Side note: when I saw the Ice King was here, I thought mcmcsalot was playing.)
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Plan #1: Everyone claims their flavor name. Copy and past the list below:
1. pingpongsam
2. Eevee
3. Archetype
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr
6. chairs
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
But ash, why? What purpose does it serve? We all know that flavor/character names do NOT indicate alignment or role. So there is no reason you cannot do this. As for reasons to do it, I'll reveal it as soon as we get this done. Do it in your next post (after reading this), please.
Seems like a waste of time, but I'm willing to see where this leads.
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Plan #1: Everyone claims their flavor name. Copy and past the list below:
1. pingpongsam
2. Eevee
3. Archetype Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles
5. WalrusMcFishSr
6. chairs
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
But ash, why? What purpose does it serve? We all know that flavor/character names do NOT indicate alignment or role. So there is no reason you cannot do this. As for reasons to do it, I'll reveal it as soon as we get this done. Do it in your next post (after reading this), please.
(Side note: when I saw the Ice King was here, I thought mcmcsalot was playing.)
I thought you were the Ice King! But, alright. I'll do it.
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I agree with Jorbles about strategy discussion. Personally, I'm still not 100% on the rules, and also this is something like a supplement to RVS in my eyes. What happens if we defeat or don't defeat the monster exactly? What proportion of dice should be used for monsters, saved for later, etc.? How do we balance monster hunting and scum hunting? I guess the first-order question is: how many dice should I roll right now to be most helpful/efficient? And should I wait for the popcorn thing or just do it?
I have no real problem with flavor claiming personally, mostly because I wanted to see if anybody else was familiar with my flavor lol. I'm Gabriel Knight!
Plan #1: Everyone claims their flavor name. Copy and past the list below:
1. pingpongsam
2. Eevee
3. Archetype - Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr - Gabriel Knight
6. chairs
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
But ash, why? What purpose does it serve? We all know that flavor/character names do NOT indicate alignment or role. So there is no reason you cannot do this. As for reasons to do it, I'll reveal it as soon as we get this done. Do it in your next post (after reading this), please.
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I am the Ice King. 8)
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I'm here.
I have 2.5 plans.
I assume at least one of them involves self-voting and the half-a-plan involves going AFK for 3 days? ::)
I also don't know why you want flavor claims, but hey, I'll bite, since we're told it doesn't give away our roles at all:
Plan #1: Everyone claims their flavor name. Copy and past the list below:
1. pingpongsam
2. Eevee
3. Archetype - Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr - Gabriel Knight
6. chairs - Ash Ketchum
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
But ash, why? What purpose does it serve? We all know that flavor/character names do NOT indicate alignment or role. So there is no reason you cannot do this. As for reasons to do it, I'll reveal it as soon as we get this done. Do it in your next post (after reading this), please.
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Ashersky should have chosen ash ketchum.
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Ashersky should have chosen ash ketchum.
That was one thing I knew (and liked) about Pokemon, that the lead character was named Ash.
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I have no real problem with flavor claiming personally, mostly because I wanted to see if anybody else was familiar with my flavor lol. I'm Gabriel Knight!
Sorry, who's Gabriel Knight?
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He was the title character from an awesome series of Sierra adventure games, sort of like King's Quest but set in the modern day with a horror/mystery/supernatural theme. He's a roguish motorcycle riding type from New Orleans who writes books and hunts monsters. Voiced by Tim Curry!
The first game in particular (GK: Sins of the Fathers) is awesome; I'd recommend it to anyone.
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play: 5
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Ice King immediately jumps into action. Beard flapping, he flies above the Troll's head, and shoots shards of ice down at it. They pierce the top of its head. The Troll howls with rage, trying to swat the pest away from it with its club.
Temeraire opens his jaws and a terrible wave of noise comes from his mouth, aimed directly at the Troll, bowling it over. It is quickly back on its feet, a little worse for wear.
Vote Count 1.1
BoxOfDog (1): ashersky
xeiron (1): Archetype
not voting (11): pingpongsam, Eevee, Jorbles, WalrusMcFishSr, chairs, theorel, Voltaire, BoxOfDog, xeiron, faust, EFHW
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 50
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Post COUNT!
Jimmmmm - 13
pingpongsam - 2
Eevee - 1
Archetype - 3
Jorbles - 4
WalrusMcFishSr - 3
chairs - 2
ashersky - 10
theorel - 2
Voltaire - 0
BoxOfDog - 2
xeiron - 4
faust - 0
EFHW - 0
So Voltaire, faust, and EFHW have yet to post. FOS.
Removing the top and bottom outliers leavse a range from 1 to 4 posts per player. I think if you are in that range, you are safe for now.
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Why'd you include the mod in the post count?
I'm Iron Man.
I disagree about discussing some rolling theory. Goal is to roll high numbers, yes...but just how high do they need to be? How many dice is enough to get there? I think that some people are going to need to be rolling more dice, because 5's just aren't going to cut it. Especially if scum comes in and plays low numbers or someone can't get over a 2/3.
I'm holding out some hope that someone can get over a 6 here, because it's way bigger here than on any other monster. And negative utility against the ogre. Maybe someone has 1 or 2 non-6ers in their supply and are debating holding onto them. Or maybe someone has the ability to add/subtract from die rolls. There's lots of value that can come from discussion of how best to beat a monster. And just how big a difference it makes. For example: as noted, having dice with more than 6 sides is negative utility against the Ogre. It's less of a big deal against Dragon, Goblin, Orc or Summoner (though it would still be helpful there). It could be pretty significant again against the Witch, because you want the biggest results possible. So, a limited-shot over-6 result possibility should really be used today.
I personally hadn't considered just how valuable it was here until xeiron mentioned it, I'm sure others hadn't. Maybe someone with a limited-shot over-6 result hadn't either, or didn't feel competent to make the judgment themselves, or had doubts about it. Maybe such an ability doesn't exist (though it's been suggested as potentially existing in the rules).
Anyways, as another example: I'd save any strength-reducing powers, if such things exist. They'll be useful later.
I mean, it's not worthwhile to cover all potential powers, but discussing monster strategy might brush on some powers that players have access to and help them judge best how to use them. Otherwise it might just help people realize that we have a bit of a tougher fight here than, say, the dragon...so consider rolling more dice than average here.
-
play: 6
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Play: 3
Sorry guys, that was my highest one :-[
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Target: 312
Total: 95
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Why'd you include the mod in the post count?
I'm Iron Man.
I disagree about discussing some rolling theory. Goal is to roll high numbers, yes...but just how high do they need to be? How many dice is enough to get there? I think that some people are going to need to be rolling more dice, because 5's just aren't going to cut it. Especially if scum comes in and plays low numbers or someone can't get over a 2/3.
I'm holding out some hope that someone can get over a 6 here, because it's way bigger here than on any other monster. And negative utility against the ogre. Maybe someone has 1 or 2 non-6ers in their supply and are debating holding onto them. Or maybe someone has the ability to add/subtract from die rolls. There's lots of value that can come from discussion of how best to beat a monster. And just how big a difference it makes. For example: as noted, having dice with more than 6 sides is negative utility against the Ogre. It's less of a big deal against Dragon, Goblin, Orc or Summoner (though it would still be helpful there). It could be pretty significant again against the Witch, because you want the biggest results possible. So, a limited-shot over-6 result possibility should really be used today.
I personally hadn't considered just how valuable it was here until xeiron mentioned it, I'm sure others hadn't. Maybe someone with a limited-shot over-6 result hadn't either, or didn't feel competent to make the judgment themselves, or had doubts about it. Maybe such an ability doesn't exist (though it's been suggested as potentially existing in the rules).
Anyways, as another example: I'd save any strength-reducing powers, if such things exist. They'll be useful later.
I mean, it's not worthwhile to cover all potential powers, but discussing monster strategy might brush on some powers that players have access to and help them judge best how to use them. Otherwise it might just help people realize that we have a bit of a tougher fight here than, say, the dragon...so consider rolling more dice than average here.
Generally speaking, I believe players ought to post more than the Mod. We're failing at that. It's early, and we should all surpass him, but when folks don't, it's a lurktell to me.
On rolling "theory," I mean sure, figure out what we need. But can't you or one person literally just post a list of monsters and required rolls next to them in one post and we're done? Assume only normal dice and make the list. Highlight the ones where big dice (if they even exist) would help or be a waste. The end.
Plan .5 will discuss more of this, but I'm waiting for Plans 1 and 2 to get done first.
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1. pingpongsam - Ice King
2. Eevee
3. Archetype - Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr - Gabriel Knight
6. chairs - Ash Ketchum
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel - Iron Man
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
Batman, Nathan Drake, Ned Stark, Q, Spike, and Van Helsing are left.
Who's the Buffy fan? Eevee's the only one here who played my Buffyverse Mafia game, and he wasn't a big fan that I recall. I'm guessing EFHW, though.
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I didn't even notice Ned Stark and Q before!!!! This game is awesome.
I don't know who Dipper Pines, Temeraire, or Nathan Drake are. I bet they're awesome too though.
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vote: BoxofDOG
Post about reading the setup just now is easily faked for towncred.
Woah woah woah.. I'm calling bullcrap on your claim.
I've legitimately been confused by this setup since the beginning. Still trying to figure out all the details by what Jim has told me in my personal QT, and the initial posts.
Nothing more to say on that matter.
1. pingpongsam - Ice King
2. Eevee
3. Archetype - Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr - Gabriel Knight
6. chairs - Ash Ketchum
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel - Iron Man
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog - Nathan Drake
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
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Dipper Pines (http://gravityfalls.wikia.com/wiki/Dipper_Pines) is from the greatest TV show ever.
I also do not condone discussing dice rolling techniques. We can already assume scum arent putting in their best effort and we don't know what sort of PRs are out there that can bend or break whatever rules we set up for dice rolling.
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Play: 6
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Target: 312
Total: 131
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Play:6
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Target: 312
Total: 167
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Thanks Arch.
Also, if we lay out the number needs, scum knows what number to safely use to not get flak. Or can preemptively apologize for low rolls.
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Batman reporting for duty!
I would definitely appreciate help with the rolling theory. I signed up to play a mafia game, I have no experience in rolling dice to defeat monsters and I'm not competent in it.
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Batman reporting for duty!
I would definitely appreciate help with the rolling theory. I signed up to play a mafia game, I have no experience in rolling dice to defeat monsters and I'm not competent in it.
For this monster, roll at least a 5. That's all.
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vote: BoxofDOG
Post about reading the setup just now is easily faked for towncred.
Woah woah woah.. I'm calling bullcrap on your claim.
I've legitimately been confused by this setup since the beginning. Still trying to figure out all the details by what Jim has told me in my personal QT, and the initial posts.
Nothing more to say on that matter.
1. pingpongsam - Ice King
2. Eevee
3. Archetype - Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr - Gabriel Knight
6. chairs - Ash Ketchum
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel - Iron Man
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog - Nathan Drake
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
Sorry dude, not buying the indignation responses, either. I've seen you pull it over and over in every game, not buying it here. It won't get you free towncred anymore.
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I'm not so sure discussion of roll theory can't be used as scum detection later. For example, I bit the bullet and rolled three dice. One of these produced the 5 that I played, I stored one and discarded the lowest.
Now, should I reveal the value of my stored die? If I do I have provided information that could prove false were I called upon to produce a stored value I did not have thus implicating me as scum. That said, if Mafia has some manner of selectively discarding our stored dies then it might be foolish to reveal who has the more useful values stored or that anyone even has stored dies. Also, the thought occurs that Mafia may have the ability to alter the value of stored die values which would certainly cause high suspicions in a roll-claim (vs a role-claim, lol) that was found false later.
Now that I type all of this out the amount of WIFOM presented by the unknown role-powers concerning stored die values or even remaining stored die counts makes me think we might be best to keep our rolls to ourselves. However, my experience has been that transparency into the shared attributes is generally going to help Town more than Mafia.
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I'm not so sure discussion of roll theory can't be used as scum detection later. For example, I bit the bullet and rolled three dice. One of these produced the 5 that I played, I stored one and discarded the lowest.
Now, should I reveal the value of my stored die? If I do I have provided information that could prove false were I called upon to produce a stored value I did not have thus implicating me as scum. That said, if Mafia has some manner of selectively discarding our stored dies then it might be foolish to reveal who has the more useful values stored or that anyone even has stored dies. Also, the thought occurs that Mafia may have the ability to alter the value of stored die values which would certainly cause high suspicions in a roll-claim (vs a role-claim, lol) that was found false later.
Now that I type all of this out the amount of WIFOM presented by the unknown role-powers concerning stored die values or even remaining stored die counts makes me think we might be best to keep our rolls to ourselves. However, my experience has been that transparency into the shared attributes is generally going to help Town more than Mafia.
Claiming stored dice seems bad to me. Helps mafia know who to kill.
However, noting that you probably shouldn't store 2's is useful. 2's are total garbage, if you have a choice between storing a 2 or a 1 store a 1.
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Thanks Arch.
Also, if we lay out the number needs, scum knows what number to safely use to not get flak. Or can preemptively apologize for low rolls.
I disagree with this as I do in every game. Discussion of facts openly is IMO always better. An informed town is strictly superior to an uninformed town, and hiding (open) information from town just makes them perform worse. It might also make scum perform worse, but I'd rather play a game where everyone is performing at peak efficiency than one where half the players aren't and are making blunders. Personal feelings aside, I'll note that if (say) half the players are under-performing it's more likely that they're town than scum...so I think it's pro-town to discuss open information in order to improve the player base.
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I'm Ned Stark.
I support dice/monster theory talk. I'll freely admit that I could be one of those townies who might need the obvious pointed out in this setup, which was extremely confusing to read about.
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I'm fine with discussing roll theory, but not stored dice. That tips scum off as to who has is closest to the 1-shots too easily.
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I am sceptical about Ashersky's plans.
1. pingpongsam - Ice King
2. Eevee
3. Archetype - Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr - Gabriel Knight
6. chairs - Ash Ketchum
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel - Iron Man
9. Voltaire - Ned Stark
10. BoxOfDog - Nathan Drake
11. xeiron - Van Helsing
12. faust
13. EFHW
Is there some benefit to this claiming? I can think of none. I we had abstained from claiming we could have pulled of the hider plan from clue.
Possibly not doing anything at all, but if we have a hider, it could be huge. But it is to late now.
We need to kill the monsters. To do that, we need X+1 HPs, where X is the monster's life. The +1 can be +100 and we still kill it.
Roll a high number, play it, move on. Until we see a monster that requires more thought than that, we should NOT waste time talking about it.
The problem with everyone doing "Roll a high number, play it, move on." is that it is better for a player to go last.
The player going last has more information about what rolls are needed to beat the monster and can.
1. play his/her highest die if it is needed to beat the monster.
2. store his/her highest die and play the second highest if that is enough.
3. store his her highest or just saving dice for future turns if victory no longer feasable.
Now, I would prefer town players to go last so that they can save high die rolls, making it easier to buy good PR's, and to stop scum from doing the same.
I feel "just roll, play and move on" makes i to easy for scum to arrange rolling late.
I also disagree with "theory talk interrupts for scum hunting" as Ashersky seems to be saying.
I feel theory talk is a great way to get some content in this thread while still being useful (as oposed to Random voting, which I don't find useful), and I can make just as good early reads based on theory talking as on other common D1 topics)
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Okay, so I'm just gonna hit a couple more general theory items.
1. As ash suggested, here's a list of monsters and some important notes about them. I'll follow this with a general theory post regarding which numbers are better (for saving purposes), and maybe some general rolling stuff (like rolling 3 is probably strictly better than rolling 2 ever)
Dragon:
Average needed: 5.
2's negative, 1's&3's doubled. This means that if everyone contributed a 3, 5, or 6 we'd win. For each 6 or 3 someone can commit a 4. for each 3 6/3's someone can commit a 1. This is an easier monster, which means less die rolling necessary (1 or 2 dice). Unfortunately rolling 2 dice gives a 1/36 chance of double 2's. But, we could probably take it anyways, unless scum contributes 2's. If multiple 2's were contributed we should lynch one of the people that did it.
Goblin:
Average Needed: 2
Sounds easy, but 2, 3, and 4 are all negative. So we need all 1, 5, and 6's. A 6 can cancel a 2 while contributing for both. This will be a tricky monster, probably best rolling either 1 die (so that you don't have to add it) or 3 dice (to give good chances of a non-negative result).
Orc:
Average Needed: 4
2 makes him auto-win. This monster should again be relatively easy. Everyone contributing 3-6 is good enough, chances are we'll have a semi-reasonable distribution among them such that there are enough 5's and 6's to make up for the 3's. Probably need an average of 2 dice rolled as with the dragon...but rolling 2 dice is way more dangerous here, as single 2 makes him win. As with goblin (true for dragon also I think) everyone should roll 1 or 3 dice. Then if anyone contributes a 2, lynch 'em. (the 1/216 chance that they're town is a chance I'm willing to take)
Troll
Average Needed: 24 (5)
Values squared. We're fighting this monster now, we've talked about it a bit. Probably need an average of 3 dice rolled, even then it may be insufficient. This monster is harder than any of the previous 3. Any power which can result in >6 is multiplied in effect here...so use it.
Witch
Average Needed: 5.5
Starts at 2 per player, each die adds 1d6. We want to hit the target # as quickly as possible...meaning adding really high numbers. Contributing a 1 is likely a loss at best no benefit. A 2 is likely a loss but could help, 3 has a 33% chance of being beneficial. Mostly we want 4+. But if each player doesn't contribute then we need a higher average. I'd say we want an average of at least 3 dice per player. This is actually the single strongest monster, but the troll benefits more from a >6 roll than the witch.
Ogre
Average Needed: 0.5
Only 1's count. So, each player has a 1/6 chance of contributing on a single d6. Really this is a lot like the troll/witch. Roll 3 dice. As a benefit, you can store the highest! It would be great if we already had a couple stored 1's here, but I'm not sure it's worth it given we could potentially not see the ogre.
Summoner
Average Needed: 3.5
The trick here is that we actually don't know the strength ahead of time. If everyone rolled 1 die we'd expect to just barely win. Probably have a couple people roll 3 to make sure.
Shadow
This is just another monster I guess? But we don't get the stats? This guy could be kind of tricky...I mean, what if it's a goblin? Then a 4 is bad. I think we should just take our time, feel out the monster a bit. Just don't contribute a 2, and do 1 addition at a time and see the effect.
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Hi all, sorry for being late on this. I'm Spike.
Vote: xeiron. Van Helsing is NOT my friend.
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vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
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vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
That's original.
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vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
I agree.
vote: ashersky
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vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
I agree.
vote: ashersky
Blatant sheep.
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Okay, some general rolling theory:
-2's are terrible. Don't save them. If you have a choice between 1 and 2 save the 1.
-Never roll 2 dice (excepting special roles). Always roll 3. When rolling 2 dice you get 1 result to play immediately, and 1 discarded. If you roll 3 dice, you get the same thing but additionally store 1. If you run out of supply you can play stored dice for free. Stored dice also help get roles. You know the result of the stored die before you play it. Thus a stored die is strictly better than a supply die. So...the third die is essentially a free upgrade.
-A stored die is not necessarily better than 2 supply dice. So depending on the size of your supply, you might be better rolling 1 die in some circumstances than 3. That's monster dependent...Troll and Witch need 3 dice for instance, while Goblin can take some single die rolls.
Last thing is supply size, how many dice to roll, etc. Let's see 13 players. If this goes to lylo, then we'll have 6 days. You can play at most 6 dice over the course of the game. If you rolled 3 every day, and started playing stored dice when you ran out, you could play a die every day with just 9 dice. Anyways, that should give a feel for how big your supply is. If it's up around 15+ you've got lots of dice and should consider rolling more. If you've got 9 (or less) you should conserve your dice when possible. (meaning not here, because Troll)
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Neither of you have contributed a bit to the game, to scum hunting, or even explained your stances against me or why you believe talking about killing monsters is more important than finding mafia.
I've thought about the setup, thought of ways to bend it to help us catch scum more quickly, found ways to trap scum in their own words early.
What have you done? Blind reasonless votes. Congrats.
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I think theo laid it out well. Now let's move on.
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vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
This is why people dislike having theory discussion...because people decide that differences of opinion in theory are scummy. Differences of opinion aren't scummy, voting people over it is scummy. Picking ashersky of all people to vote over a difference of opinion is completely ridiculous. You're vote here is at best as useful as RVS, at worst it's trying to cast suspicion where it's unwarranted.
vote: Voltaire
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I appreciate the help with rolling theory, I think I get that part of the game much better now!
Ash is being a bit annoying on purpose, but I don't see that as an alignment tell.
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Neither of you have contributed a bit to the game, to scum hunting, or even explained your stances against me or why you believe talking about killing monsters is more important than finding mafia.
I've thought about the setup, thought of ways to bend it to help us catch scum more quickly, found ways to trap scum in their own words early.
What have you done? Blind reasonless votes. Congrats.
My last post on the previous page should be seen as my case against you.
It is not a strong case, as it is early D1, but it is neither a blind reasonless vote.
I do have a scumread on you.
I have one question for you. What do you put in scumhunting?
For me scumhunting is about reading other people's post, and trying to figure whether their behaviour makes most sense as scum or as town.
It can certainly be combined with fighting monsters.
So, here you have your claim table. Tell me what we can make out of it?
1. pingpongsam - Ice King
2. Eevee - Batman
3. Archetype - Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr - Gabriel Knight
6. chairs - Ash Ketchum
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel - Iron Man
9. Voltaire - Ned Stark
10. BoxOfDog - Nathan Drake
11. xeiron - Van Helsing
12. faust - Spike
13. EFHW - Q
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Scumhunting, to me, is looking at what people say, or do, or how they react to something, and trying to figure out the why. The motive. For some people, the motive is winning as scum. That's what I look for when I scumhunt.
I do that in a lot of ways. Most famously, I force reactions out of people. I don't think that's a secret. But the way players react to stuff can help us find scum.
Liking theory or not is not a scumtell. Agreeing on theory or not isn't either.
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vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
This is why people dislike having theory discussion...because people decide that differences of opinion in theory are scummy. Differences of opinion aren't scummy, voting people over it is scummy. Picking ashersky of all people to vote over a difference of opinion is completely ridiculous. You're vote here is at best as useful as RVS, at worst it's trying to cast suspicion where it's unwarranted.
vote: Voltaire
Well, I have already seen this in action. I have already made a theory-based mistake because I made a decision prior to your post, after seeing ash's "just roll dice" post and "everybody claim" and I foolishly didn't bother thinking through all those things thoroughly. Then you made your very helpful rundown post and I've seen the mistakes here. Then I thought that what happened to me is exactly what scum wants. So I voted ash. It's the most I've seen so far. I'm obviously not married to this decision.
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The only argument against popcorn style I've seen that makes sense is that it does lead to issues if deadline approaches and dice have yet to be rolled due to V/LA issues or simple AFKness.
To be safe, I'm going to go ahead and roll now.
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vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
This is why people dislike having theory discussion...because people decide that differences of opinion in theory are scummy. Differences of opinion aren't scummy, voting people over it is scummy. Picking ashersky of all people to vote over a difference of opinion is completely ridiculous. You're vote here is at best as useful as RVS, at worst it's trying to cast suspicion where it's unwarranted.
vote: Voltaire
Well, I have already seen this in action. I have already made a theory-based mistake because I made a decision prior to your post, after seeing ash's "just roll dice" post and "everybody claim" and I foolishly didn't bother thinking through all those things thoroughly. Then you made your very helpful rundown post and I've seen the mistakes here. Then I thought that what happened to me is exactly what scum wants. So I voted ash. It's the most I've seen so far. I'm obviously not married to this decision.
I'm confused here a bit...you made a theory-based mistake, based on ash's comment? But you say that you realized it after reading my more recent post. That would imply to me that you rolled fewer dice than you should. In spite of the fact that we'd ALREADY discussed rolling 3 dice? Why would you take ashersky's theory to heart and ignore the other theory discussion that had already taken place? Especially if you were having trouble deciding what to do? That makes no sense. It sounds to me like you're excusing your own anti-town behavior and pushing a scum-narrative on ashersky.
As to popcorn rolling, I can see the merits there. But I also see value in getting rolls out earlier. If people's rolls offer useful scumhunting opportunity (which they very well might), we want more day available to use them as such. I don't think there's significant value in people holding out on rolling till the end. We do want town to be going last, as they're more likely to actually make us succeed...while scum could tread the line. If the last player rolling needs a 6 to make it, scum could easily lie and say "didn't get a 6" and we would probably not be too suspicious. OTOH if all that's needed is a 3, and someone says, couldn't get a 3...we should lynch that person. And the trouble is, that it's ONLY the last roll that gets this benefit. Up until then, you have no idea what we need...and chances are we need more. So just try to get a 6 and add it. The best way to get a 6 is to roll lots of dice. Roll as many dice as you feel comfortable with given your supply, power, etc. If you have no special power, and an "average" supply size roll 3.
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The only argument against popcorn style I've seen that makes sense is that it does lead to issues if deadline approaches and dice have yet to be rolled due to V/LA issues or simple AFKness.
To be safe, I'm going to go ahead and roll now.
Yeah, it seems like popcorn style is going out the window, maybe we can return to it when there's less players in the game because it'll be less of an issue. I'll roll now.
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I have been rather suspicious of ash, ever since I logged for the day, yesterday..
You're also using completely irrelevant information. I've acted completely different in every game I've played, and I would also note that over the course of each one, I have learned more about how I would even play this game.
So don't try to pull your own crap on me.
>:(
UNAMAUSED BOX IS UNAMUSED
/vote: ashersky
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I have been rather suspicious of ash, ever since I logged for the day, yesterday..
You're also using completely irrelevant information. I've acted completely different in every game I've played, and I would also note that over the course of each one, I have learned more about how I would even play this game.
So don't try to pull your own crap on me.
>:(
UNAMAUSED BOX IS UNAMUSED
/vote: ashersky
/vote: ashersky *
Hah. Woops.. Just woke up.
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sorry I'm late - preoccupied with my other game.
I think we can save popcorn for when we have actual suspicions of people.
Ash - why would you think I like Buffy? Stereotyping females, perhaps?
I need to figure out how to roll dice and then I will.
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Also, we should keep track of the rolls.
Players
1. pingpongsam: 5
2. Eevee
3. Archetype: 6
4. Jorbles (rolling...)
5. WalrusMcFishSr: 3
6. chairs (rolling...)
7. ashersky: 5
8. theorel: 6
9. Voltaire
10. BoxOfDog: 6
11. xeiron
12. faust
13. EFHW
total: 167
target: 312
Of the players remaining to roll, I would like to see xeiron roll last, personally. I'd like to see Voltaire roll sooner (though based on his post, I think he already rolled). Eevee wouldn't be bad as a later roll.
I have a null read on faust, in that I remember he posted, and don't remember his post.
efhw's been distracted (and posted while I wrote this), again complete null.
Someone who has not yet rolled should wait until we know who all has rolled anyways. Preferrably 2 or 3 people, just so you know if you should consider rolling 4 dice rather than 3 (i.e. how important is it to get a 6?)
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Yes, I have already rolled.
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So, I would actually say that efhw, faust, eevee, and xeiron should not roll until the three that have already rolled have known results. That way you can make a more informed decision for how many dice to roll.
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Someone who has not yet rolled should wait until we know who all has rolled anyways. Preferrably 2 or 3 people, just so you know if you should consider rolling 4 dice rather than 3 (i.e. how important is it to get a 6?)
I almost completely ignored the rolling strategy section of this giant conversation to spare myself the headache, so just rolled two dice.
Came up with a 5 and 6.
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After rolling, if you wish to or must play a die, you must do so as soon as possible. Once you have seen the result, please play the die you wish to play in your very next post. You may not disclose the result of your roll prior to playing the die. Failing to adhere to this may result in the die being discarded, or a random die being played, at my discretion.
Box, please play one of those dice and cross your fingers that Jimmmmm will be nice at the start of the game.
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and if you'd rolled an extra die you could have stored the 6.
Please NO ONE ELSE ANNOUNCE WHAT YOU ROLLED.
@Box: AND, Now scum knows not to kill you because you have no stored dice. It's like claiming Vanilla Town DON'T DO IT!
(Box already played a 6 see post 3 or so up)
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(Box already played a 6 see post 3 or so up)
Oh, good.
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I have already rolled, no results yet.
And vote: BoxOfDOG. Theorel is right, don't announce what you rolled.
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and if you'd rolled an extra die you could have stored the 6.
Please NO ONE ELSE ANNOUNCE WHAT YOU ROLLED.
@Box: AND, Now scum knows not to kill you because you have no stored dice. It's like claiming Vanilla Town DON'T DO IT!
(Box already played a 6 see post 3 or so up)
That should read "you could have stored the 5".
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and if you'd rolled an extra die you could have stored the 6.
Please NO ONE ELSE ANNOUNCE WHAT YOU ROLLED.
@Box: AND, Now scum knows not to kill you because you have no stored dice. It's like claiming Vanilla Town DON'T DO IT!
(Box already played a 6 see post 3 or so up)
That should read "you could have stored the 5".
:I
There was a misconception.
I read through the specific rules, and it looked like you had to roll three dice to store one of them.
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Even if you have a low supply, now is not the time to "hold" your supply. This is definitely a 3 dice situation until/unless we have enough dice out to hit/exceed the mark.
And I don't see how ashersky having a crazy plan is scum!ashersky or town!ashersky - I think we've seen ridiculousness from both versions of him, to the point that I just kind of wait to see what crazy thing will come from ash in whatever game we're in. I don't see a downside to flavor claiming, but I don't see an upside - but maybe we have a flavor cop that, if he knows your flavor, can get guilty/not guilty results?
PPE: 13. I'm still pending my dice at the moment.
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Early game voting always seems RVS to me. I can never tell if someone is serious or just seeking a reaction or better, seeking who would try to create a wagon from a random vote. Thus, I don't see the initial vote as being scummy but followup votes do seem more scummy than others.
Using this line of reasoning the forming ashersky wagon has a high probability of a scum on it. As stated by others, I am not seeing scummy behavior in his posts but I do seem scum motive to vote him for those posts.
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and if you'd rolled an extra die you could have stored the 6.
Please NO ONE ELSE ANNOUNCE WHAT YOU ROLLED.
@Box: AND, Now scum knows not to kill you because you have no stored dice. It's like claiming Vanilla Town DON'T DO IT!
(Box already played a 6 see post 3 or so up)
That should read "you could have stored the 5".
:I
There was a misconception.
I read through the specific rules, and it looked like you had to roll three dice to store one of them.
You did have to roll 3. That was my point (that's why I said "if you had rolled 3"). IF you had rolled 3 dice instead of 2 you would now have a stored 5. As is, you don't have one because you only rolled 2 dice. You effectively "wasted" that 5. A 5 stored is significantly better than a die in your supply...in fact it's almost as good as 2 dice in your supply.
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okay, actually I said "if you'd rolled an extra die" which is equivalent to "if you'd rolled 3" but not literally the same.
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A 5 stored is significantly better than a die in your supply...in fact it's almost as good as 2 dice in your supply.
It'd better be, since it costs two supply dice to spend a stored die.
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I didn't realize we'd have to announce our rolls immediately, I apologize for sucking at reading rules. My results are still pending, but I rolled three dice.
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Theorel, why would I have been a good late roller?
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Ugh, it costs 2 dice from our supply to play a store die? I don't know about you guys, but my supply is so small that I'm beginning to wonder if I'll have any dice left to play by the end of this (assuming I survive that long).
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I have already rolled, no results yet.
same here.
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Ugh, it costs 2 dice from our supply to play a store die? I don't know about you guys, but my supply is so small that I'm beginning to wonder if I'll have any dice left to play by the end of this (assuming I survive that long).
I would guess that there are some means to refill your supply, maybe monster rewards or such.
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I didn't realize we'd have to announce our rolls immediately, I apologize for sucking at reading rules. My results are still pending, but I rolled three dice.
FoS: Eevee. Do NOT announce how many dice you rolled!
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Completely unrelated, but I had to share.
Eevee: http://i.imgur.com/IPD81sZ.png
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Play: 3
Sorry all. :(
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Ugh, it costs 2 dice from our supply to play a store die? I don't know about you guys, but my supply is so small that I'm beginning to wonder if I'll have any dice left to play by the end of this (assuming I survive that long).
BUT, if your supply is empty, you can still play stored dice. So, you should plan to run your supply out, rather than have 1 die left in it.
Note that with 9 dice you can roll 3 every day for the first 3 days and play a stored die every turn for the last 3 days. Unless there's some crazy doctor saving and game goes max length.
Even then, there may be powers that adjust your supply.
But yes, please no one else announce how many dice you rolled, how big your supply is, or anything else that might help scum direct their night-kills. C'mon what's with the random claiming of hidden information! It's hidden for a reason.
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Welp I am useless, I understand if everyone wants to lynch me for this.
Play: 2
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Theorel, why would I have been a good late roller?
Out of all players, nothing in particular. Out of those remaining I found you townier than faust, efhw, and voltaire. And it would be good to have town rolling later because then they can make more informed decisions about how many dice to roll.
Apparently doesn't matter, because you all already rolled except xeiron.
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Play: 6
Here, take some higher numbers.
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Play: 6
Here, take some higher numbers.
We're running average right now. I feel a bit better.
We need 96 over the last four (24 avg) each I believe.
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Play: 5
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Play: 5
Good. xeiron should not roll yet btw.
need an avg. of 4.8 over the last 3.
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Also, we should keep track of the rolls.
Players
1. pingpongsam: 5
2. Eevee: 5
3. Archetype: 6
4. Jorbles: 2
5. WalrusMcFishSr: 3
6. chairs (rolling...)
7. ashersky: 5
8. theorel: 6
9. Voltaire: 3
10. BoxOfDog: 6
11. xeiron
12. faust: 6
13. EFHW
total: 241
target: 312
Leaves 71 for 3 players. Which is 2 6's and anything. 3 5's. OR 6, 5, and 4.
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oops, left in quote tags....well the above post isn't actually a quote.
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(unbolded for mod kindness)Play: 3
Sorry all. :(
Statistically speaking you only rolled one die which would be anti-town for this monster OR you rolled three dice, stored the nice one and put the crappy one on the table with a feigned show of remorse because you're not just anti-town but actually Mafia.
Coupled with the fact that you are on the askersky wagon I've already detailed my suspicions about I am willing to go ahead and Vote: Voltaire.
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Does it make sense now why it would be nice to have more than 1 person that hadn't started rolling?
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(unbolded for mod kindness)Play: 3
Sorry all. :(
Statistically speaking you only rolled one die which would be anti-town for this monster OR you rolled three dice, stored the nice one and put the crappy one on the table with a feigned show of remorse because you're not just anti-town but actually Mafia.
Coupled with the fact that you are on the askersky wagon I've already detailed my suspicions about I am willing to go ahead and Vote: Voltaire.
I'm not answering this implied question because it will give the mafia extra info. I will simply state that I detailed prior to my results that I realized after submitting my roll that I made an incorrect choice.
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Play: 5
Sorry I didn't snag a 6 :(
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(unbolded for mod kindness)Play: 3
Sorry all. :(
Statistically speaking you only rolled one die which would be anti-town for this monster OR you rolled three dice, stored the nice one and put the crappy one on the table with a feigned show of remorse because you're not just anti-town but actually Mafia.
Coupled with the fact that you are on the askersky wagon I've already detailed my suspicions about I am willing to go ahead and Vote: Voltaire.
I'm not answering this implied question because it will give the mafia extra info. I will simply state that I detailed prior to my results that I realized after submitting my roll that I made an incorrect choice.
There was no implied question. I made a statistical analysis. Trying to paint this as if I were fishing for Mafia-enriching information only confirms my suspicions on you.
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oops, left in quote tags....well the above post isn't actually a quote.
I think we're all kind of understanding that certain lists (the flavor claim list, the "what got rolled" list) aren't actually quotes, even when quoted.
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Yeah...that's true. Mostly I wanted to call out the information in the bottom of the quote (the required remaining rolls).
Well, hopefully efhw gets at least a 4 to keep things interesting...
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There was no implied question. I made a statistical analysis. Trying to paint this as if I were fishing for Mafia-enriching information only confirms my suspicions on you.
Actually there is an implied question, whether you meant it or not. In order to defend myself, I would need to state the number of dice I rolled and what numbers came up.
I do not think mafia would be as brash as you have been, so I have a town read on you right now.
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oops, left in quote tags....well the above post isn't actually a quote.
I think we're all kind of understanding that certain lists (the flavor claim list, the "what got rolled" list) aren't actually quotes, even when quoted.
You could use the
code tag
If you wanted to be totally clear, but yeah I got that it wasn't a quote.
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Attacks come at the Troll from everywhere. It is a mighty beast - can it be defeated?
Vote Count 1.2
BoxOfDog (2): ashersky, faust
xeiron (1): Archetype
ashersky (3): Voltaire, xeiron, BoxOfDog
Voltaire (2): theorel, pingpongsam
not voting (5): Eevee, Jorbles, WalrusMcFishSr, chairs, EFHW
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 230
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That total is wrong...you missed a 6 somewhere I think. (though I'll double-check my record)
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probably archetypes because he left out the space
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The listed Total is correct.
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Ah, need to check QT more often:
play: 5
Now we absolutely require 5 and 6. Hopefully efhw has something decent.
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Target: 312
Total: 255
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It appears theorrel just played a second die?
Here is my count:
pps - 5 = 25
ash - 5 = 25
theo - 6 = 36
wlarus - 3 = 9
box - 6 = 36
arch - 6 = 36
volt - 3 = 9
jorb - 2 = 4
eev - 5 = 25
chairs - 5 = 25
total = 230
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http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9533.msg300238#msg300238
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apologies my list left out faust - 6 = 36
leaving a total of 266
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xeiron and EFHW are the only ones I cannot find a record of a played roll
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According to my record the only winning plays are 6/6, 6/5, 6/4 or 5/5.
But I fear mod wrath for having a different total.
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I will roll soon, but first I want clarity about the total. Did Theorels play of 6 get discarded and replaced with a 5? Or did theorel play two dice and jim forgot to count one?
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Looking back, I see that EFHW has already rolled. I will wait until she has played something.
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PPE 35
play: 4
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I will roll soon, but first I want clarity about the total. Did Theorels play of 6 get discarded and replaced with a 5? Or did theorel play two dice and jim forgot to count one?
But if Theorel played two dice and Jimmmmm ignored it the first time, wouldn't he still have rather played the 6 over the 5?
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I will roll soon, but first I want clarity about the total. Did Theorels play of 6 get discarded and replaced with a 5? Or did theorel play two dice and jim forgot to count one?
But if Theorel played two dice and Jimmmmm ignored it the first time, wouldn't he still have rather played the 6 over the 5?
I am not sure what happened, but I do not think theorel could have chosen it any different.
If Jims last count is correct, we can no longer beat the troll unless someone has a PR that can help.
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So is there any conclusion to draw other than scum has a PR that can ignore/discard/destroy/(count as negative) a die? That's what I'm thinking.
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I am refraining from making any conclusions or speculation until we get a (double)confirmation that the count is correct with at least an acknowledgment that theorel was right to play a second die. At this point, I think there has been an error, not foul play.
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So, here you have your claim table. Tell me what we can make out of it?
1. pingpongsam - Ice King
2. Eevee - Batman
3. Archetype - Dipper Pines
4. Jorbles - Astro Boy
5. WalrusMcFishSr - Gabriel Knight
6. chairs - Ash Ketchum
7. ashersky - Temeraire
8. theorel - Iron Man
9. Voltaire - Ned Stark
10. BoxOfDog - Nathan Drake
11. xeiron - Van Helsing
12. faust - Spike
13. EFHW - Q
Okay, I'm here and re-reading the thread from where I left off. I'll reply as I go. First, to big "reveal" from this.
This actually goes well with the idea of how we scumhunt. To quote a well-known compadre, "we do Day 1 wrong." So, I decided to try to steer town into doing it "right" a bit more.
It's Day 1. We can't spend our time looking for things, because there are no things. I think we swing into theory/set-up talk so much because there's nothing else and it is an easy conversation starter. Then we get into arguments because we disagree with each others' theories, which as Theorel pointed out, is stupid. So I wanted something else, completely benign, to be our conversation starter.
We already knew the list of flavor names. We already knew that there was zero danger in claiming them. There was no negative for town or scum to do this. So why did I ask for it?
I wanted everyone to have a reaction on record. Did they immediately go with it, claim, and move on? Did they act hestitant, or attack the idea (or idea giver)? Did they think it was a waste of time but do it anyway? All these reactions are probably honest ones, because scum didn't have to think "hmmm...how would town react to this? I need to do that!" because there was no danger to begin with, and no expectation.
So it was a safe question that got some reactions to guage. Was I wondering who would choose "bad" guys as their characters (Ice King, Spike, VH, Q, maybe Ned Stark -- I don't mean evil so much as willing to do bad things for themselves)? Sure. But I don't think it means anything about the players, other than possible subconsciously.
So, when re-reading, think about how people decided to react to this exercise. It was by no means any more of a waste of time than all this dice talk. It took one line, a few extra words, for most of us. But the few who hesitated, or argued against it, or used it as a reason to vote!, thanks for the extra bit of info into reading you.
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vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
This is why people dislike having theory discussion...because people decide that differences of opinion in theory are scummy. Differences of opinion aren't scummy, voting people over it is scummy. Picking ashersky of all people to vote over a difference of opinion is completely ridiculous. You're vote here is at best as useful as RVS, at worst it's trying to cast suspicion where it's unwarranted.
vote: Voltaire
Well, I have already seen this in action. I have already made a theory-based mistake because I made a decision prior to your post, after seeing ash's "just roll dice" post and "everybody claim" and I foolishly didn't bother thinking through all those things thoroughly. Then you made your very helpful rundown post and I've seen the mistakes here. Then I thought that what happened to me is exactly what scum wants. So I voted ash. It's the most I've seen so far. I'm obviously not married to this decision.
I'm confused here a bit...you made a theory-based mistake, based on ash's comment? But you say that you realized it after reading my more recent post. That would imply to me that you rolled fewer dice than you should. In spite of the fact that we'd ALREADY discussed rolling 3 dice? Why would you take ashersky's theory to heart and ignore the other theory discussion that had already taken place? Especially if you were having trouble deciding what to do? That makes no sense. It sounds to me like you're excusing your own anti-town behavior and pushing a scum-narrative on ashersky.
I was going to respond to Voltaire, but Theorel summed it up nicely.
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As to popcorn rolling, I can see the merits there. But I also see value in getting rolls out earlier. If people's rolls offer useful scumhunting opportunity (which they very well might), we want more day available to use them as such. I don't think there's significant value in people holding out on rolling till the end. We do want town to be going last, as they're more likely to actually make us succeed...while scum could tread the line. If the last player rolling needs a 6 to make it, scum could easily lie and say "didn't get a 6" and we would probably not be too suspicious. OTOH if all that's needed is a 3, and someone says, couldn't get a 3...we should lynch that person. And the trouble is, that it's ONLY the last roll that gets this benefit. Up until then, you have no idea what we need...and chances are we need more. So just try to get a 6 and add it. The best way to get a 6 is to roll lots of dice. Roll as many dice as you feel comfortable with given your supply, power, etc. If you have no special power, and an "average" supply size roll 3.
Theo, I bolded what I think is a fallacy in your argument above. While 6 is higher than 3, all numbers on a fair die have the same probability of being rolled, right? So you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, but also just a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 3.
So I don't think we can punish the person who rolled a 3 anymore than praise the one who rolled a 6. It's all luck.
Remember, rolling more dice does NOT improve your chances of rolling a specific number, it increases the NUMBER of chances you have of rolling a specific number. So if you need to roll a 5, if you roll one dice, your chance is 1 in 6. If you roll two dice, 2 in 12 (1 in 6 twice). If you roll three dice, 3 in 36 (1 in 6 thrice).
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I have been rather suspicious of ash, ever since I logged for the day, yesterday..
You're also using completely irrelevant information. I've acted completely different in every game I've played, and I would also note that over the course of each one, I have learned more about how I would even play this game.
So don't try to pull your own crap on me.
>:(
UNAMAUSED BOX IS UNAMUSED
/vote: ashersky
Dude, no offense, but this isn't working for you.
I've watched you play multiple games. In every single one, any time you had any suspicion pointed your way, you overreacted with a lot of emotion, enough for folks to back off because they didn't want you so pissed off. Not going to work anymore, because it's a fantastic cover for when you are scum and a distraction when you are town.
Here's how I think a game of mafia would play out around the dinner table:
ASHERSKY: Hey Box, can you pass me the salt?
BOXOFDOG: OH MY GOD HOW CAN YOU SPEW THAT VITRIOLIC CRAP AT ME WHEN I'M JUST EATING DINNER NOT DOING ANYTHING BAD OR WRONG FOR THE LOVE OF GOD YOU ARE SO SCUMMY YOU CAN'T ACCUSE ME THAT WAY IT'S SO UNFAIR AND WRONG YOU ARE INSANE LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR GO HOME.
ASHERSKY: *shakes his head and sighs*
ASHERSKY: Hey Voltaire...can you pass me the salt?
So my vote stays until you stop using the "frustrated townie who can't believe anyone would ever suspect him" defense. Plus, you aren't doing as good a job of acting frustrated this time, which gives me the feeling that you are scum trying to fake it.
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Ash - why would you think I like Buffy? Stereotyping females, perhaps?
Lame. I am male and have seen every episode of Buffy + Angel (except for the second half of Buffy Season 2, because I was missing the DVDs for that, plus I didn't want to see Evil Angel, who is the greatest character in the whole buffyverse).
Are you saying you DON'T like Buffy?
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and if you'd rolled an extra die you could have stored the 6.
Please NO ONE ELSE ANNOUNCE WHAT YOU ROLLED.
@Box: AND, Now scum knows not to kill you because you have no stored dice. It's like claiming Vanilla Town DON'T DO IT!
(Box already played a 6 see post 3 or so up)
This. Absolutely this. Giving scum extra info for nothing is bad news bears.
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And I don't see how ashersky having a crazy plan is scum!ashersky or town!ashersky - I think we've seen ridiculousness from both versions of him, to the point that I just kind of wait to see what crazy thing will come from ash in whatever game we're in. I don't see a downside to flavor claiming, but I don't see an upside - but maybe we have a flavor cop that, if he knows your flavor, can get guilty/not guilty results?
Great point. Except, I don't think a Flavor Cop would be useful in a game where the flavor is out there. But I like this outside-the-box thinking.
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As to popcorn rolling, I can see the merits there. But I also see value in getting rolls out earlier. If people's rolls offer useful scumhunting opportunity (which they very well might), we want more day available to use them as such. I don't think there's significant value in people holding out on rolling till the end. We do want town to be going last, as they're more likely to actually make us succeed...while scum could tread the line. If the last player rolling needs a 6 to make it, scum could easily lie and say "didn't get a 6" and we would probably not be too suspicious. OTOH if all that's needed is a 3, and someone says, couldn't get a 3...we should lynch that person. And the trouble is, that it's ONLY the last roll that gets this benefit. Up until then, you have no idea what we need...and chances are we need more. So just try to get a 6 and add it. The best way to get a 6 is to roll lots of dice. Roll as many dice as you feel comfortable with given your supply, power, etc. If you have no special power, and an "average" supply size roll 3.
Theo, I bolded what I think is a fallacy in your argument above. While 6 is higher than 3, all numbers on a fair die have the same probability of being rolled, right? So you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, but also just a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 3.
So I don't think we can punish the person who rolled a 3 anymore than praise the one who rolled a 6. It's all luck.
Remember, rolling more dice does NOT improve your chances of rolling a specific number, it increases the NUMBER of chances you have of rolling a specific number. So if you need to roll a 5, if you roll one dice, your chance is 1 in 6. If you roll two dice, 2 in 12 (1 in 6 twice). If you roll three dice, 3 in 36 (1 in 6 thrice).
I was never great with probability...wouldn't it be more like, if you needed to roll a specific number, and you roll n dice, you would have a (1 - (5/6)^n ) chance of rolling that number? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say here...adding more dice definitely increases the chances you'll hit that number at least once.
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(unbolded for mod kindness)Play: 3
Sorry all. :(
Statistically speaking you only rolled one die which would be anti-town for this monster OR you rolled three dice, stored the nice one and put the crappy one on the table with a feigned show of remorse because you're not just anti-town but actually Mafia.
Coupled with the fact that you are on the askersky wagon I've already detailed my suspicions about I am willing to go ahead and Vote: Voltaire.
Very good point on the anti-townness of only rolling one die. This is a BIG monster, we can all see that. It's so big, in fact, that our rolls are multiplied to help us kill it. That, to me, says we need big numbers to kill it. Lots of HP means lots of hits. That's a given.
Why take a chance that you only get one number? You may not have thought of the "never roll 2 dice" thing that was pointed out, but the "let's roll one dice and hope for the best" strategy was pushed by no one.
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As to popcorn rolling, I can see the merits there. But I also see value in getting rolls out earlier. If people's rolls offer useful scumhunting opportunity (which they very well might), we want more day available to use them as such. I don't think there's significant value in people holding out on rolling till the end. We do want town to be going last, as they're more likely to actually make us succeed...while scum could tread the line. If the last player rolling needs a 6 to make it, scum could easily lie and say "didn't get a 6" and we would probably not be too suspicious. OTOH if all that's needed is a 3, and someone says, couldn't get a 3...we should lynch that person. And the trouble is, that it's ONLY the last roll that gets this benefit. Up until then, you have no idea what we need...and chances are we need more. So just try to get a 6 and add it. The best way to get a 6 is to roll lots of dice. Roll as many dice as you feel comfortable with given your supply, power, etc. If you have no special power, and an "average" supply size roll 3.
Theo, I bolded what I think is a fallacy in your argument above. While 6 is higher than 3, all numbers on a fair die have the same probability of being rolled, right? So you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, but also just a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 3.
So I don't think we can punish the person who rolled a 3 anymore than praise the one who rolled a 6. It's all luck.
Remember, rolling more dice does NOT improve your chances of rolling a specific number, it increases the NUMBER of chances you have of rolling a specific number. So if you need to roll a 5, if you roll one dice, your chance is 1 in 6. If you roll two dice, 2 in 12 (1 in 6 twice). If you roll three dice, 3 in 36 (1 in 6 thrice).
I was never great with probability...wouldn't it be more like, if you needed to roll a specific number, and you roll n dice, you would have a (1 - (5/6)^n ) chance of rolling that number? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say here...adding more dice definitely increases the chances you'll hit that number at least once.
I feel like that's the fallacy that everyone has. It's like, if you flip a coin 100 times, you have better chances than flipping it once. But you don't. It's 50/50 every single time.
Same with dice. It is 1/6 every single time. You increase the number of chances you have to hit the number you want, so yes. It's like buying 1000 lottery tickets instead of 1. You have 1000 chances to win, but each of those chances is still crazy low.
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All these reactions are probably honest ones, because scum didn't have to think "hmmm...how would town react to this? I need to do that!" because there was no danger to begin with, and no expectation.
So...there was no point. Last time you did this, I remember you ended up suspecting and voting entirely town players.
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All these reactions are probably honest ones, because scum didn't have to think "hmmm...how would town react to this? I need to do that!" because there was no danger to begin with, and no expectation.
So...there was no point. Last time you did this, I remember you ended up suspecting and voting entirely town players.
So...you continue to refuse to read things I write. There was a very good point.
I'm creating data points. You are sowing dissention.
Start being a team player and help out, man. Why the piss poor mood?
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All these reactions are probably honest ones, because scum didn't have to think "hmmm...how would town react to this? I need to do that!" because there was no danger to begin with, and no expectation.
So...there was no point. Last time you did this, I remember you ended up suspecting and voting entirely town players.
Just because something hasn't worked well in the past doesn't mean it won't work in a new situation. I think creating some more data points to discuss is worthwhile. Especially D1.
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As to popcorn rolling, I can see the merits there. But I also see value in getting rolls out earlier. If people's rolls offer useful scumhunting opportunity (which they very well might), we want more day available to use them as such. I don't think there's significant value in people holding out on rolling till the end. We do want town to be going last, as they're more likely to actually make us succeed...while scum could tread the line. If the last player rolling needs a 6 to make it, scum could easily lie and say "didn't get a 6" and we would probably not be too suspicious. OTOH if all that's needed is a 3, and someone says, couldn't get a 3...we should lynch that person. And the trouble is, that it's ONLY the last roll that gets this benefit. Up until then, you have no idea what we need...and chances are we need more. So just try to get a 6 and add it. The best way to get a 6 is to roll lots of dice. Roll as many dice as you feel comfortable with given your supply, power, etc. If you have no special power, and an "average" supply size roll 3.
Theo, I bolded what I think is a fallacy in your argument above. While 6 is higher than 3, all numbers on a fair die have the same probability of being rolled, right? So you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, but also just a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 3.
So I don't think we can punish the person who rolled a 3 anymore than praise the one who rolled a 6. It's all luck.
Remember, rolling more dice does NOT improve your chances of rolling a specific number, it increases the NUMBER of chances you have of rolling a specific number. So if you need to roll a 5, if you roll one dice, your chance is 1 in 6. If you roll two dice, 2 in 12 (1 in 6 twice). If you roll three dice, 3 in 36 (1 in 6 thrice).
I was never great with probability...wouldn't it be more like, if you needed to roll a specific number, and you roll n dice, you would have a (1 - (5/6)^n ) chance of rolling that number? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say here...adding more dice definitely increases the chances you'll hit that number at least once.
I feel like that's the fallacy that everyone has. It's like, if you flip a coin 100 times, you have better chances than flipping it once. But you don't. It's 50/50 every single time.
Same with dice. It is 1/6 every single time. You increase the number of chances you have to hit the number you want, so yes. It's like buying 1000 lottery tickets instead of 1. You have 1000 chances to win, but each of those chances is still crazy low.
I think we need to use the ncr (combination) calc to get this right. I'm on my phone but will try to get accurate statistics when I get home.
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Wolfram Alpha states that with 3 dice you have a 91/216 probably of getting at least one of 3 dice to be the desired face.
http://wolfr.am/1a4fWo6
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Wolfram Alpha states that with 3 dice you have a 91/216 probably of getting at least one of 3 dice to be the desired face.
http://wolfr.am/1a4fWo6
Correct, with one die you have roughly 15% chance while with three dice your chances are more like 40%. Arguments to the contrary are wrong-headed.
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I have been rather suspicious of ash, ever since I logged for the day, yesterday..
You're also using completely irrelevant information. I've acted completely different in every game I've played, and I would also note that over the course of each one, I have learned more about how I would even play this game.
So don't try to pull your own crap on me.
>:(
UNAMAUSED BOX IS UNAMUSED
/vote: ashersky
Dude, no offense, but this isn't working for you.
I've watched you play multiple games. In every single one, any time you had any suspicion pointed your way, you overreacted with a lot of emotion, enough for folks to back off because they didn't want you so pissed off. Not going to work anymore, because it's a fantastic cover for when you are scum and a distraction when you are town.
Here's how I think a game of mafia would play out around the dinner table:
ASHERSKY: Hey Box, can you pass me the salt?
BOXOFDOG: OH MY GOD HOW CAN YOU SPEW THAT VITRIOLIC CRAP AT ME WHEN I'M JUST EATING DINNER NOT DOING ANYTHING BAD OR WRONG FOR THE LOVE OF GOD YOU ARE SO SCUMMY YOU CAN'T ACCUSE ME THAT WAY IT'S SO UNFAIR AND WRONG YOU ARE INSANE LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR GO HOME.
ASHERSKY: *shakes his head and sighs*
ASHERSKY: Hey Voltaire...can you pass me the salt?
So my vote stays until you stop using the "frustrated townie who can't believe anyone would ever suspect him" defense. Plus, you aren't doing as good a job of acting frustrated this time, which gives me the feeling that you are scum trying to fake it.
Wowwww..
I haven't been frustrated the whole time, just a bit confused, and now dumbfounded..
Particularly by this, which isn't just "turn the suspicion towards Box" it's legitimately offensive.
You're making incredibly large assumptions, and being actually more rude than I have in any game.
The only thing I am bothered by right now, is you blowing up what I have said out of proportion, and spewing it back out at me.
Also, I was joking at the last part. But my vote still stands.
And my vote wasn't overreaction, I actually put a reasonable amount of thought into it.
"ASHERSKY: Hey Box, can you pass me the salt?
BOXOFDOG: OH MY GOD HOW CAN YOU SPEW THAT VITRIOLIC CRAP AT ME WHEN I'M JUST EATING DINNER NOT DOING ANYTHING BAD OR WRONG FOR THE LOVE OF GOD YOU ARE SO SCUMMY YOU CAN'T ACCUSE ME THAT WAY IT'S SO UNFAIR AND WRONG YOU ARE INSANE LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR GO HOME.
ASHERSKY: *shakes his head and sighs*
ASHERSKY: Hey Voltaire...can you pass me the salt?"
If this isn't an insult, then I don't know what is.
Please, for the love of God, back off.
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Wolfram Alpha states that with 3 dice you have a 91/216 probably of getting at least one of 3 dice to be the desired face.
http://wolfr.am/1a4fWo6
Correct, with one die you have roughly 15% chance while with three dice your chances are more like 40%. Arguments to the contrary are wrong-headed.
Wrong. Wrong wrong wrong.
If you are trying to get a specific number, you have exactly a 1 in 6 chance (16.666666....%) of rolling it on every single roll. Your chance of rolling a specific number does NOT increase from 16.7% to 40%. Please tell me how independent actions can affect each other.
The dice do not change. The dice are just blocks of plastic with dots on them. The plastic block doesn't think to itself, "oh hey, this human hand is rolling more than one, I'll be sure to try extra hard to land on the number he wants!"
Rolling more dice does NOT increase the chance that any one roll comes up a specific number.
Answer this: Flip a coin 9 times in a row. Get heads 9 times in a row. Are you more or less likely to get heads on your tenth flip?
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Ash - why would you think I like Buffy? Stereotyping females, perhaps?
Lame. I am male and have seen every episode of Buffy + Angel (except for the second half of Buffy Season 2, because I was missing the DVDs for that, plus I didn't want to see Evil Angel, who is the greatest character in the whole buffyverse).
Are you saying you DON'T like Buffy?
Never watched it, actually. So that's not why you thought it would be me?
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If this isn't an insult, then I don't know what is.
Please, for the love of God, back off.
You are confirming everything I'm saying, dude. There was no insult anywhere in my post. We are playing a game. It's a game of social deduction. I'm doing everything I can to figure out if you are scum or not. It's a game. It's a game. I write things, you write things, others write things.
You either take everything personally, or act like you are taking it personally. And until now, everyone has just let you do it. I won't. It's a game. Stop taking it personally and just play. Or keep playing it up because you decided as scum that it was your best defense.
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Ash - why would you think I like Buffy? Stereotyping females, perhaps?
Lame. I am male and have seen every episode of Buffy + Angel (except for the second half of Buffy Season 2, because I was missing the DVDs for that, plus I didn't want to see Evil Angel, who is the greatest character in the whole buffyverse).
Are you saying you DON'T like Buffy?
Never watched it, actually. So that's not why you thought it would be me?
Your gender was not the reason, no. You just struck me as a Whedon-loving type of person.
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If this isn't an insult, then I don't know what is.
Please, for the love of God, back off.
You are confirming everything I'm saying, dude. There was no insult anywhere in my post. We are playing a game. It's a game of social deduction. I'm doing everything I can to figure out if you are scum or not. It's a game. It's a game. I write things, you write things, others write things.
You either take everything personally, or act like you are taking it personally. And until now, everyone has just let you do it. I won't. It's a game. Stop taking it personally and just play. Or keep playing it up because you decided as scum that it was your best defense.
Seriously dude?
I haven't taken anything personally until now. Read through your own posts.
"It's a game. It's a game. I write things, you write things," is a terrible defense on your own part.
How can you provoke someone and expect a positive reaction out of it?
"Everyone has just let you do it. I won't."
So you're implying that you are going to 'stand against the man' when really I haven't done a single thing, except for make a small mistake?
I'm not confirming a single point of yours.
What I am confirming is that you think that poking the grizzly bear perfectly okay, as long as it's in a game.
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Wolfram Alpha states that with 3 dice you have a 91/216 probably of getting at least one of 3 dice to be the desired face.
http://wolfr.am/1a4fWo6
Correct, with one die you have roughly 15% chance while with three dice your chances are more like 40%. Arguments to the contrary are wrong-headed.
Wrong. Wrong wrong wrong.
If you are trying to get a specific number, you have exactly a 1 in 6 chance (16.666666....%) of rolling it on every single roll. Your chance of rolling a specific number does NOT increase from 16.7% to 40%. Please tell me how independent actions can affect each other.
The dice do not change. The dice are just blocks of plastic with dots on them. The plastic block doesn't think to itself, "oh hey, this human hand is rolling more than one, I'll be sure to try extra hard to land on the number he wants!"
Rolling more dice does NOT increase the chance that any one roll comes up a specific number.
Answer this: Flip a coin 9 times in a row. Get heads 9 times in a row. Are you more or less likely to get heads on your tenth flip?
1/6th chance means about one sixth of the time you should get the number you want. If you are rolling 5 dice at once, and you only need one of them to be a six, and it doesn't matter which one, then your odd are 5/6. The 1/6 only applies if you want to predict a specific die's result.
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1/6th chance means about one sixth of the time you should get the number you want. If you are rolling 5 dice at once, and you only need one of them to be a six, and it doesn't matter which one, then your odd are 5/6. The 1/6 only applies if you want to predict a specific die's result.
But how do your 1/6 odds of any one die being "3" change by rolling 4 other dice? Unless those other dice are bumping each other to somehow force a "3" to come up, they don't.
Each die rolled is an independent event. This isn't like Bingo, where if you roll a 6 on the first die, the next die can only give you a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
Your chances of rolling 6, 6, 6, 6, 6 with 5 dice is exactly the same as your chances of rolling 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
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If this isn't an insult, then I don't know what is.
Please, for the love of God, back off.
You are confirming everything I'm saying, dude. There was no insult anywhere in my post. We are playing a game. It's a game of social deduction. I'm doing everything I can to figure out if you are scum or not. It's a game. It's a game. I write things, you write things, others write things.
You either take everything personally, or act like you are taking it personally. And until now, everyone has just let you do it. I won't. It's a game. Stop taking it personally and just play. Or keep playing it up because you decided as scum that it was your best defense.
Seriously dude?
I haven't taken anything personally until now. Read through your own posts.
"It's a game. It's a game. I write things, you write things," is a terrible defense on your own part.
How can you provoke someone and expect a positive reaction out of it?
"Everyone has just let you do it. I won't."
So you're implying that you are going to 'stand against the man' when really I haven't done a single thing, except for make a small mistake?
I'm not confirming a single point of yours.
What I am confirming is that you think that poking the grizzly bear perfectly okay, as long as it's in a game.
What small mistake have you made this game? I haven't noted any.
Yes, I can "poke the grizzly bear" if I think there's a chance that the grizzly bear is scum. That's what town does. Finds scum any way it can.
Saying "you use the fact that you know an overly emotional response to suspicion buys you both a reprieve and towncred" is NOT an insult. It's in fact a compliment, since I'm saying you recognize how the community reacts to you and you use it to your advantage. That's what scum does. That's what you could be doing. That's why I continue to suspect you.
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Okay, just skimmed, but I wanted to hit a couple points.
As far as I can tell, I was forced to reroll. So my 6 didn't count anymore, and I had to replace with a 5. If someone town can force a reroll also, then we could try to improve someone else's result. Not sure who would be best target for that though, since you'd want someone with a low result that could be scum.
Basically, we can't beat the troll at this point, unless someone can power-role it.
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*you want someone with a low result, that isn't scum*
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If this isn't an insult, then I don't know what is.
Please, for the love of God, back off.
You are confirming everything I'm saying, dude. There was no insult anywhere in my post. We are playing a game. It's a game of social deduction. I'm doing everything I can to figure out if you are scum or not. It's a game. It's a game. I write things, you write things, others write things.
You either take everything personally, or act like you are taking it personally. And until now, everyone has just let you do it. I won't. It's a game. Stop taking it personally and just play. Or keep playing it up because you decided as scum that it was your best defense.
Seriously dude?
I haven't taken anything personally until now. Read through your own posts.
"It's a game. It's a game. I write things, you write things," is a terrible defense on your own part.
How can you provoke someone and expect a positive reaction out of it?
"Everyone has just let you do it. I won't."
So you're implying that you are going to 'stand against the man' when really I haven't done a single thing, except for make a small mistake?
I'm not confirming a single point of yours.
What I am confirming is that you think that poking the grizzly bear perfectly okay, as long as it's in a game.
What small mistake have you made this game? I haven't noted any.
Yes, I can "poke the grizzly bear" if I think there's a chance that the grizzly bear is scum. That's what town does. Finds scum any way it can.
Saying "you use the fact that you know an overly emotional response to suspicion buys you both a reprieve and towncred" is NOT an insult. It's in fact a compliment, since I'm saying you recognize how the community reacts to you and you use it to your advantage. That's what scum does. That's what you could be doing. That's why I continue to suspect you.
Fair enough, but being emotional is actually part of my personality.
I kid you not, it is.
That may not be enough to justify my behavior, but that's about as much as I can give you.
Anyway..
Why is statistics, chance, and other things alike, important?
You two are kinda bickering about a pointless subject, when (I believe) pretty much everyone has rolled.
What's done is done, and in the future, simply point out "Roll with three dice, just to give it a higher chance of getting a good roll"
If I'm mistaken exactly what you're talking about, please tell me.
Otherwise, problem solved. Play the game. Talking about numbers isn't playing the game.
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If I'm mistaken exactly what you're talking about, please tell me.
Otherwise, problem solved. Play the game. Talking about numbers isn't playing the game.
This, I agree with.
I'm arguing with EFHW on this only because I can't help but argue things like this. I'm on wikipedia looking up different types of probability now.
We're looking at 1/6 per roll. No matter how many dice you roll, it's 1/6 per roll. Rolling more dice is good, because it gives you more 1/6 chances to get the number you need. But it doesn't increase your chances from 1/6 to 1/3 to 1/2 up to 1/1 if you roll six dice. That's insane.
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Fair enough, but being emotional is actually part of my personality.
I kid you not, it is.
That may not be enough to justify my behavior, but that's about as much as I can give you.
Also, this is good for us to know, but I'm asking you, then, to try to put some of it aside. You have to realize that sometimes town will come after you, because they don't know your alignment. And at some point, scum will do it, because they know they can.
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@ashersky: your probability is wrong because you get to CHOOSE which die to use. It's not just roll 3 dice and take the LAST ONE, it's roll 3 dice take your choice. That means you have 3 chances to get 3, which is way better than only having 1 chance to get 3.
Also, I said if we needed a 6 then well, someone could roll 3 dice and not get a 6, sure. But if they roll 3 dice and don't get AT LEAST a 3, that's highly suspicous (note only true for a single event. It happening once in 13 people is kind of expected, which is why Jorbles isn't necessarily more suspicious than voltaire/walrus). If they had to hit exactly 3, well that's the same as 6. But at least 3 means: 3, 4, 5, or 6 are all good enough. That's 66% chance on 1 die. And 96% chance on 3 dice.
It's like if you flip a coin 10 times, what are the chances that ONE of those is heads? Extraordinarily high. Now, if you flip tails 9 times, then you have 50-50 of flipping tails the last time, sure...but that's only 1 of the 10 events, you want to look at all 10 together.
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1/6th chance means about one sixth of the time you should get the number you want. If you are rolling 5 dice at once, and you only need one of them to be a six, and it doesn't matter which one, then your odd are 5/6. The 1/6 only applies if you want to predict a specific die's result.
But how do your 1/6 odds of any one die being "3" change by rolling 4 other dice? Unless those other dice are bumping each other to somehow force a "3" to come up, they don't.
Each die rolled is an independent event. This isn't like Bingo, where if you roll a 6 on the first die, the next die can only give you a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
Your chances of rolling 6, 6, 6, 6, 6 with 5 dice is exactly the same as your chances of rolling 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
It's because you don't care which of the dice comes up 6. You are right that each individual die's chances stay at 1/6. It's the overall probability that at least one of the dice will be a 6 that matters here.
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A British guy on Youtube did a video about flipping a coin. He wrote down a bunch of outcomes, heads or tails, and his biggest streak was like 5 heads.
When he finally did the real coin flipping, and wrote that down, he got a streak of 11 tails. (I watched this a while back, so don't quote me on this.)
I'm hoping that expresses exactly how random rolling a dice, flipping a coin, throwing a book across the room, is.
Our dice rolling is RANDOM. You could get three ones, three sixes, one two and three.
I'm kinda giving myself a headache here.. But this entire discussion should end with this:
"Roll three dice in the future. It's a reasonable amount. Increases the chances. Done. Start the RVS"
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@ashersky: your probability is wrong because you get to CHOOSE which die to use. It's not just roll 3 dice and take the LAST ONE, it's roll 3 dice take your choice. That means you have 3 chances to get 3, which is way better than only having 1 chance to get 3.
Also, I said if we needed a 6 then well, someone could roll 3 dice and not get a 6, sure. But if they roll 3 dice and don't get AT LEAST a 3, that's highly suspicous (note only true for a single event. It happening once in 13 people is kind of expected, which is why Jorbles isn't necessarily more suspicious than voltaire/walrus). If they had to hit exactly 3, well that's the same as 6. But at least 3 means: 3, 4, 5, or 6 are all good enough. That's 66% chance on 1 die. And 96% chance on 3 dice.
It's like if you flip a coin 10 times, what are the chances that ONE of those is heads? Extraordinarily high. Now, if you flip tails 9 times, then you have 50-50 of flipping tails the last time, sure...but that's only 1 of the 10 events, you want to look at all 10 together.
If you meant "at least 3" then we're in agreement, I believe. Because then we're looking for a 3, 4, 5, or 6. But your post did not use "at least" and I didn't assume it.
I also think we're talking past each other. EFHW, too.
I am arguing that, if you need a specific number, you are MORE likely to get that specific number if you try MORE times. So roll more dice, better chance of rolling that specific number because you are trying more often, NOT because the chance that any one die will hit that number has gone up.
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exactly right. case closed.
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Why is statistics, chance, and other things alike, important?
You two are kinda bickering about a pointless subject, when (I believe) pretty much everyone has rolled.
What's done is done, and in the future, simply point out "Roll with three dice, just to give it a higher chance of getting a good roll"
If I'm mistaken exactly what you're talking about, please tell me.
Otherwise, problem solved. Play the game. Talking about numbers isn't playing the game.
Statistics/chance are important because there's a sub-game, here, and scum is going to be trying to use that sub-game to their advantage. Town should just roll more dice to give a higher chance of a good roll. Town should roll 3 dice every time rather than 2 because storing is better than leaving it in supply...but what about scum? What's scum going to do?
Well, they're going to try to play low dice into the pool unsuspiciously. If we don't know how much to expect the low dice, then we unfairly persecute town who just got unlucky. If we DO know how much to expect the low dice, then we can spot out scum influence. How much to expect something is called probability. Therefore probability is important.
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I am refraining from making any conclusions or speculation until we get a (double)confirmation that the count is correct with at least an acknowledgment that theorel was right to play a second die. At this point, I think there has been an error, not foul play.
See #139 and #141.
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If you meant "at least 3" then we're in agreement, I believe. Because then we're looking for a 3, 4, 5, or 6. But your post did not use "at least" and I didn't assume it.
Cool, we agree. You're right that I didn't say "at least", because (with 1 exception) higher numbers are always better in this game, I figured it would be implied. But, I capitalized it when adding it, to make sure that you would see the change...not because I thought you hadn't noticed it. Which really I'm only clarifying because I don't want to come across as a jerk (which I do sometimes) :)
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Target: 312
Total: 271
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Okay, I'm skipping Plan #2.
Plan #2.5 is, as guessed, half a plan. That's because I'm not convinced it is good or right or in our best interest, but it does have interesting possibilities, and I wanted to get town's opinion on it.
This plan is based off of this:
At least one of you has a role related to fighting the Monsters. At least one of you does not. If you do not have a specific Monster-related role, do not fear! There is still plenty for you to do. There may or may not be traditional Mafia roles.
All roles which assist in fighting the Monsters have been distributed entirely independently of alignment. None of these roles are compulsory, and there is no way for a Townie to investigate another player's role.
My question: should we have Monster Fighting Roles claim in any way?
I ask this for a number of reasons. As seen so far, we have been focused a bit on fighting the monsters. We know it is in our favor to defeat them, and not let them hurt us. Scum will try to stop it somehow.
There is at least one role we're talking about here. We don't know what it is, but from the wording, I believe it is helpful in killing the monsters. That role (or roles) could be held by town, or held by scum.
Some pros: if we have protection, they could protect the monster hunters. If they have more info on killing monsters, sharing it with town could help us with the planning and executing of our fights. If the role is held by scum, we could force them to help us (if they claimed) instead of hold it back (this works if there is only one role, and scum has it, since if no one claims, we know scum is hiding it because we are guaranteed one).
Some cons: could be nightkilled, of course. Could reduce efficacy. Could be other stuff I'm not thinking of.
It doesn't create an IC, since it could be scum. But, I think a planned claiming preempts the ability of scum to use "but I'm a monster hunter role don't lynch me!" at L-1. So that's in our favor, too.
Like I said, I'm not convinced. But I think it could be a good idea. Thoughts?
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If you meant "at least 3" then we're in agreement, I believe. Because then we're looking for a 3, 4, 5, or 6. But your post did not use "at least" and I didn't assume it.
Cool, we agree. You're right that I didn't say "at least", because (with 1 exception) higher numbers are always better in this game, I figured it would be implied. But, I capitalized it when adding it, to make sure that you would see the change...not because I thought you hadn't noticed it. Which really I'm only clarifying because I don't want to come across as a jerk (which I do sometimes) :)
Fair enough. I only didn't assume since we have some numbers that are bad on some monsters, etc.
Anyway, I like your summary from before, and every time a new monster enters, we should grab that, double-check it, and roll with it. (PUN!)
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Well, we have at least 1 scum-aligned monster hunting role. Because they targeted me to reduce my addition to the combat.
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ASHERSKY: Hey Voltaire...can you pass me the salt?
VOLTAIRE: *passes pepper*
I don't really know what to make of this whole Boxofdog vs ashersky thing. I can discern no info about each others alignment, but I'm fairly certain I know why ash is doing it.
What's done is done, and in the future, simply point out "Roll with three dice, just to give it a higher chance of getting a good roll"
I don't think you should always default to rolling 3 dice each day. I mean if you can afford it, then sure. But, depending on the monster, some people may be better off rolling 2 or even just one die. And if they have certain dies stocked up, they can use those.
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Okay, so good use of probability (IMO)...what are the chances that all 3 low rollers are legit (not scum sabotage), assuming everyone rolled 3 dice?
First a couple notes: Assuming everyone is telling the truth, then not everyone rolled 3 dice. That's fine, this is just a rough guesstimate. Essentially someone rolling fewer than 3 dice is the same as someone rolling 3 dice and storing the highest (playing second highest)...because they did something anti-town. I'm going to calculate the probability that this OR WORSE could have happened. This is because in the hypothetical situation where we have 4 low rollers, then we also had 3 low rollers (we just had 1 extra one).
(based on some rough preliminary calculations, I think this comes out to around 18.22%). So, it's like a 81% probability that (at least) one of those 3 players is scum. That's like a 27% chance per player. 3/13=23% chance. So, that's a 4% greater chance. I'll weigh it into scumhunting, but it's nothing to write home about.
Okay, on to the actual calculations, because I still hold out hope that someone reads these and checks my math :)
(There might be an easier way to get this result, my probability is a little rusty, so I'm going with guaranteed accurate over any shortcuts)
Probability that at least 3 players got 3 or lower = 1 - (Pr(exactly 0 players got 3 or lower) + Pr(exactly 1 player got 3 or lower) + Pr(exactly 2 players got 3 or lower))
Probability that a given player got 3 or lower on 1 die = 1/2.
Probability on three dice = 1/2^3=1/8.
Probability that 0 players got 3 or lower = (7/8)^12=.2014 (i.e. ~20%)
Prob. that 1 specific player got 3 or lower = (7/8)^11*(1/8)=.02877
Prob. that any 1 player got 3 or lower = .02877*12=.3452 (i.e. 34.52%)
Prob. that 2 specific players got 3 or lower = (7/8)^10*(1/8)^2=.0041105
Prob. that any 2 players got 3 or lower = .0041105*12*11/2=.2712 (around 27%)
So, total Prob that 2 or fewer players rolled 3 or lower: 81.78%
Prob that at least 3 players rolled 3 or lower: 18.22%
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I don't think you should always default to rolling 3 dice each day. I mean if you can afford it, then sure. But, depending on the monster, some people may be better off rolling 2 or even just one die. And if they have certain dies stocked up, they can use those.
Outside of role-specific advantages, and supply problems, no one should ever roll 2 dice.
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I don't think you should always default to rolling 3 dice each day. I mean if you can afford it, then sure. But, depending on the monster, some people may be better off rolling 2 or even just one die. And if they have certain dies stocked up, they can use those.
Outside of role-specific advantages, and supply problems, no one should ever roll 2 dice.
Yeah. That's what I meant by 'better off'. IIRC you proved that rolling 2 dice is almost always inferior to 3 dice.
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Okay, so good use of probability (IMO)...what are the chances that all 3 low rollers are legit (not scum sabotage), assuming everyone rolled 3 dice?
First a couple notes: Assuming everyone is telling the truth, then not everyone rolled 3 dice. That's fine, this is just a rough guesstimate. Essentially someone rolling fewer than 3 dice is the same as someone rolling 3 dice and storing the highest (playing second highest)...because they did something anti-town. I'm going to calculate the probability that this OR WORSE could have happened. This is because in the hypothetical situation where we have 4 low rollers, then we also had 3 low rollers (we just had 1 extra one).
(based on some rough preliminary calculations, I think this comes out to around 18.22%). So, it's like a 81% probability that (at least) one of those 3 players is scum. That's like a 27% chance per player. 3/13=23% chance. So, that's a 4% greater chance. I'll weigh it into scumhunting, but it's nothing to write home about.
Okay, on to the actual calculations, because I still hold out hope that someone reads these and checks my math :)
(There might be an easier way to get this result, my probability is a little rusty, so I'm going with guaranteed accurate over any shortcuts)
Probability that at least 3 players got 3 or lower = 1 - (Pr(exactly 0 players got 3 or lower) + Pr(exactly 1 player got 3 or lower) + Pr(exactly 2 players got 3 or lower))
Probability that a given player got 3 or lower on 1 die = 1/2.
Probability on three dice = 1/2^3=1/8.
Probability that 0 players got 3 or lower = (7/8)^12=.2014 (i.e. ~20%)
Prob. that 1 specific player got 3 or lower = (7/8)^11*(1/8)=.02877
Prob. that any 1 player got 3 or lower = .02877*12=.3452 (i.e. 34.52%)
Prob. that 2 specific players got 3 or lower = (7/8)^10*(1/8)^2=.0041105
Prob. that any 2 players got 3 or lower = .0041105*12*11/2=.2712 (around 27%)
So, total Prob that 2 or fewer players rolled 3 or lower: 81.78%
Prob that at least 3 players rolled 3 or lower: 18.22%
Oh my preliminary calculations were around 22% because I was including all 13 players and doing it entirely in my head based on the ~17% that I computed earlier. I then recalculated it for the appropriate numbers (since xeiron didn't roll). But I left in the bit about preliminary calculations because that 4% was not a big difference, so I wanted the structure of that sentence. My preliminary calcilations were NOT 18.22%, because I'm not a human calculator.
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I don't think you should always default to rolling 3 dice each day. I mean if you can afford it, then sure. But, depending on the monster, some people may be better off rolling 2 or even just one die. And if they have certain dies stocked up, they can use those.
Outside of role-specific advantages, and supply problems, no one should ever roll 2 dice.
Yeah. That's what I meant by 'better off'. IIRC you proved that rolling 2 dice is almost always inferior to 3 dice.
Right, sorry. I'm just pointing out that it isn't monster dependent, it's player dependent. And by supply problems I mean basically: have exactly 2 dice left.
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I don't think you should always default to rolling 3 dice each day. I mean if you can afford it, then sure. But, depending on the monster, some people may be better off rolling 2 or even just one die. And if they have certain dies stocked up, they can use those.
Outside of role-specific advantages, and supply problems, no one should ever roll 2 dice.
Yeah. That's what I meant by 'better off'. IIRC you proved that rolling 2 dice is almost always inferior to 3 dice.
Right, sorry. I'm just pointing out that it isn't monster dependent, it's player dependent. And by supply problems I mean basically: have exactly 2 dice left.
If you have exactly 2 left, is it better to roll 1?
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Depends on what's in your store, and what monster you're fighting. (okay, so I guess it does depend on the monster. arch was right, it's just a secondary concern I think)
If your store is good, you'll probably want to discard the extra supply to start playing from it anyways.
If you're fighting goblins or the witch you could get stuck enhancing their strength. Whereas with 1 die you can just discard it. Orcs slightly dangerous, but it's 1/36 that you roll double-2s.
Probably, you should try to arrange not to get stuck with 2 dice in supply if you can. (but given that there may be roles which give extra dice to supply, well...maybe not much you can do about it)
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(I was curious, so I checked my post count)
I have 36 posts to ash's 41. Either I've successfully changed my meta, or I find dice games/probability too interesting to be healthy. Hmm....
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If your store is good, you'll probably want to discard the extra supply to start playing from it anyways.
Bah. not being explicit. This means you might as well roll it, because you'll just want to discard it anyways. (rolling 2 dice is better than discarding a die for no reason, generally). The next thing was to provide the exception, where discarding may be better than rolling an extra die.
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(I was curious, so I checked my post count)
I have 36 posts to ash's 41. Either I've successfully changed my meta, or I find dice games/probability too interesting to be healthy. Hmm....
I'd go with the latter. You love the math/probability type stuff in all games. This one is just built in.
Null tell for you, except you are providing a lot of pro-town info, which I don't expect from scum. So town points for you.
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Just a quick note to mention that my weekend starts now, and it's a three-day weekend thanks to a local holiday, so I'll be less available than usual until Monday evening forum time.
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I will also be less avaliable this weekend.
I am against monster-fighters-claiming.
I think it will help scum more that it will help town.
Scum know better who to kill, and where a forced reroll hurts more. They may have other PR that benefit from more information.
A claim could help us coordinate a fight, but I think most of the PRs can use their roles effectively without the town coordinating it.
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Answer this: Flip a coin 9 times in a row. Get heads 9 times in a row. Are you more or less likely to get heads on your tenth flip?
You ask the wrong question.
The question is: take 10 coins into your hand. Flip each coin only once and place the resulting face before you in a line until all coins have been flipped. Are you more or less likely to have all heads lying before you?
In your example you do not allow for a results queue and thus reset the register after each result in which case you are correct. This is about a results set, not a reoccurring singular result. The probabilities are calculated differently. An increasingly larger result set presents an increasingly higher probability that a desired singular result will appear in that set.
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Also, apologies for rekindling the probability discussion, I just got up for the morning and immediately responded to ashersky without realizing there were 2 pages of this type of back and forth.
I cannot be swayed from this position. So, I will assume ashersky cannot be swayed from his in which case we have an impasse and further argument over the probability is time wasted.
See post #162:
If ashersky truly thinks that a 3 dice roll has the exact same odds as a single dice roll of producing a number greater than three (silly on its face), then his comments about "why take a chance on rolling one die" are a direct contradiction to his school of logic.
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I don't think claiming monster fighting is a good idea. It reveals to scum, above all, which players have roles that can actively hurt them. Monster fighting abilities are weaker than scum fighting abilities, I'd say.
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I don't think claiming monster fighting is a good idea. It reveals to scum, above all, which players have roles that can actively hurt them. Monster fighting abilities are weaker than scum fighting abilities, I'd say.
Strongly agreed.
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Also, apologies for rekindling the probability discussion, I just got up for the morning and immediately responded to ashersky without realizing there were 2 pages of this type of back and forth.
I cannot be swayed from this position. So, I will assume ashersky cannot be swayed from his in which case we have an impasse and further argument over the probability is time wasted.
See post #162:
If ashersky truly thinks that a 3 dice roll has the exact same odds as a single dice roll of producing a number greater than three (silly on its face), then his comments about "why take a chance on rolling one die" are a direct contradiction to his school of logic.
"Greater than 3" is incorrect. The whole of the discussion was based on getting exactly 3.
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Answer this: Flip a coin 9 times in a row. Get heads 9 times in a row. Are you more or less likely to get heads on your tenth flip?
You ask the wrong question.
The question is: take 10 coins into your hand. Flip each coin only once and place the resulting face before you in a line until all coins have been flipped. Are you more or less likely to have all heads lying before you?
In your example you do not allow for a results queue and thus reset the register after each result in which case you are correct. This is about a results set, not a reoccurring singular result. The probabilities are calculated differently. An increasingly larger result set presents an increasingly higher probability that a desired singular result will appear in that set.
Isn't the chance that you get 10 heads in 10 flips 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2...etc? So much smaller than 1/2?
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Also, apologies for rekindling the probability discussion, I just got up for the morning and immediately responded to ashersky without realizing there were 2 pages of this type of back and forth.
I cannot be swayed from this position. So, I will assume ashersky cannot be swayed from his in which case we have an impasse and further argument over the probability is time wasted.
See post #162:
If ashersky truly thinks that a 3 dice roll has the exact same odds as a single dice roll of producing a number greater than three (silly on its face), then his comments about "why take a chance on rolling one die" are a direct contradiction to his school of logic.
"Greater than 3" is incorrect. The whole of the discussion was based on getting exactly 3.
The same argument that shows that 3 dice rolls have higher odds at producing a number greater than three shows that 3 dice rolls have higher odds at producing a, say, 6. (Just replace "greater than 3" with "greater than 5")
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See post #162:
If ashersky truly thinks that a 3 dice roll has the exact same odds as a single dice roll of producing a number greater than three (silly on its face), then his comments about "why take a chance on rolling one die" are a direct contradiction to his school of logic.
Yeah, that's not what he was trying to say. I think he was pointing out the "wrong question" answer, because he was trying to express that you were no more likely to roll one number over another. He was just reversing it to "you're no more likely to roll a number on one die than another". Which is kind of related.
At some point, he expressed some probability that implied that idea, but he did not hold the implication as true. His math was off, but the point he was actually arguing wasn't, and I think this caused some complications because people argued against the math while his point was solid and so he argued back. The actual problem was that he was using math that didn't apply.
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Answer this: Flip a coin 9 times in a row. Get heads 9 times in a row. Are you more or less likely to get heads on your tenth flip?
You ask the wrong question.
The question is: take 10 coins into your hand. Flip each coin only once and place the resulting face before you in a line until all coins have been flipped. Are you more or less likely to have all heads lying before you?
In your example you do not allow for a results queue and thus reset the register after each result in which case you are correct. This is about a results set, not a reoccurring singular result. The probabilities are calculated differently. An increasingly larger result set presents an increasingly higher probability that a desired singular result will appear in that set.
Isn't the chance that you get 10 heads in 10 flips 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2...etc? So much smaller than 1/2?
Yes, therefore you're more likely to have at least 1 tails.
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(which was pps's unstated argument, which is part of what makes these conversations tricky because people switch from trying to show one thing to something else without stating it explicitly...which is what I did...which started the whole argument in the first place)
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I think we all agreed that we all agree that rolling more dice helps your chances of rolling the number you need, though.
Right?
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I'm for everyone using their judgement to decide if and when to claim.
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Moving on from number discussion, I've wondered something else: In the case that we already defeated a monster or it's already certain that we won't, do you think it's worth it to roll 3 dice just to store one of them for later purchases?
I also want to propose that the players with the lowest rolls today should roll first D2.
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I really apologize for posting this, but there are times where one just can't help themselves. This is one of those times, please skip the post if it isn't interesting to you. It's long...and I promise to immediately follow it with something to benefit discussions rather than detract from them.
Also: general probability teaching moment...
This is based on a post of ashersky's from a while ago. If you would like to understand this part of probability better, read this. If you don't care skip it. It's specifically to address this problem, which is fairly common:
If you roll one die the probability of getting 6 is 1/6
If you roll 2 dice, what's the probability of getting AT LEAST 1 6. (If you get 2 6's that's okay, because you got 1 6).
It's NOT 2/6. (which as ashersky points out would lead to the result on 6 dice being 6/6=100%)
I'm going to explain why, and what it actually is. If you don't want to know, or already know feel free to skip it.
So, first let's talk about one die. The total possibilities on 1 die are: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. There are 6 of them. 1 of them is a 6. Therefore Probability of a 6 is 1 in 6=1/6.
For 2 dice, you can list all possibilities: {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66} there are 36 of them, and 11 of them have a 6. That's 11/36 (note that 12/36=2/6 So, this is 2/6 - 1/36).
So, we don't want to list all possibilities every time, so we want to find a different way of computing that 11/36. There are 2 ways which are variously useful:
method 1: compute the inverse. The probability you have at least 1 6 is the inverse of the probability you have NO 6's. The probability you have 0 6's in 2 dice is: the square of the probability you have 0 6's in 1 die (because they are independent events) which is (5/6)^2=25/36.
This gives us 1-(25/36)=11/36 as the probability you have at least 1 6. This is generally a pretty easy method to compute "AT LEAST x" as a probability.
method 2: The Principal of Inclusion/Exclusion (called PIE for short). This is the fun way to compute it, because you get to use that intuition that wanted to add the probabilities.
So, if you roll 1 die, you have a 1/6 chance of a 6. If you roll 2 dice, each has a 1/6 chance of being 6. So, Looking at the set above we have the following:
{61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66} for die 1, and {16, 26, 36, 46, 56, 66} for die 2. Each of those are 6 of the 36 results. That's the 1/6 probability of getting a 6 on 1 die. But when we add those probabilities note the 66 element. That one is getting counted twice. So, the easiest way to deal with that is to subtract it back out. So what's the probability of 66? Well, it's 1 possibility among 36, so 1/36.
So our result is 1/6+1/6-1/36.
What happens is in adding the probability we count some results twice (the 66 here). So, we "exclude" them.
Now what about if we roll 3 dice? Then things start getting a bit trickier:
We have a result set with 216 elements (6 for each of the 36 above). The ones we want look like 6xx, x6x, and xx6. So, we start with 3/6, because those are each 1/6 of the possibilities. BUT we've counted some things twice as before. In this case it's: 66x, 6x6, and x66 that have been counted twice.
Each of those make up 1/36 of the possibilities (as above), but now there are three of them. So, we subtract them out.
But now we've subtracted too much! That 666 element we had originally counted 3 times, but we've subtracted out all 3 times. So, we need to re-add it. It is 1/216 of the possibilities (since it's unique). So we need to add that back in (i.e. "include" it).
The final result is: 3/6 - 3/36 + 1/216. Which is 91/216.
This expands into a general formula, where you take n*(Pr) - (n,2)*Pr^2 + (n,3)*Pr^3 - ...or SUM(((-1)^(k+1))*(n,k)*Pr^k).
Anyways, sorry for the tangent, but I wanted to explain why 6 dice wasn't 6/6=100%. And I think PIE is a good way to explain exactly where those probabilities are going. Hope it's helpful and enlightening.
If you have questions/are interested, I'd be glad to talk about it more. But we probably should stop disrupting the flow of the game with (truly pointless in this case!) probability discussions, and move on...so PM me, or open a new thread.
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Moving on from number discussion, I've wondered something else: In the case that we already defeated a monster or it's already certain that we won't, do you think it's worth it to roll 3 dice just to store one of them for later purchases?
I also want to propose that the players with the lowest rolls today should roll first D2.
I like that suggestion. (low rolls roll first D2).
I think it might be worth it to roll for storage for PRs. Although that might depend on how much supply you have?
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I just thought it might be cool to do a mass-vigging. But then I realized scum could just buy bulletproof if they knew it was coming. So no gamebreaking strategy there.
So, I think unless you have some method of modifying your storage it might not be worth rolling 3 dice for one to store. (might still).
It's definitely worth rolling/playing 1 die for WIFOM.
Either way, he should wait until we see if someone can make this winnable. Since he can't change which die he plays after playing it.
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Isn't the chance that you get 10 heads in 10 flips 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2...etc? So much smaller than 1/2?
Exactly, thank you. The more results in the set the higher the probability is of one of the results fitting a specific value that is within the range of possible results and the lower the probability that all of the results will be fitting some other paradigm (such as all heads or dice 3 or lower). It is odd that you can see how this works in reducing probability that results will repeat but cannot see the inverse that increased diversity of results is increased probability of a higher dice roll being found.
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Moving on from number discussion, I've wondered something else: In the case that we already defeated a monster or it's already certain that we won't, do you think it's worth it to roll 3 dice just to store one of them for later purchases?
I also want to propose that the players with the lowest rolls today should roll first D2.
Rolling 3 dice to store the one knowing the other is effectively a discard is literally discarding 4 dice to spend a single stored dice, so no, I'm not seeing that as a wise choice.
I am in favor of requesting the low-rollers to roll first on D2.
Major Town vibe coming from faust.
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Moving on from number discussion, I've wondered something else: In the case that we already defeated a monster or it's already certain that we won't, do you think it's worth it to roll 3 dice just to store one of them for later purchases?
I also want to propose that the players with the lowest rolls today should roll first D2.
Rolling 3 dice to store the one knowing the other is effectively a discard is literally discarding 4 dice to spend a single stored dice, so no, I'm not seeing that as a wise choice.
I am in favor of requesting the low-rollers to roll first on D2.
Major Town vibe coming from faust.
But if you use your stored dice to purchase powers, you don't need to discard dice from the supply, if I'm reading the rules correctly. I'm seeing this more as discard 2 dice to store a good die for later purchases. As you can only store one die per day, you may never get to buy the special powers if you don't store something every day.
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All these thoughts heavily depend on how big the threats/rewards from the monsters are, I guess we'll have to see that. Without knowing that, it's hard to answer questions like "is getting the 1-shot cop worth risking to lose against the monster"?
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ASHERSKY: Hey Voltaire...can you pass me the salt?
VOLTAIRE: *passes pepper*
I don't really know what to make of this whole Boxofdog vs ashersky thing. I can discern no info about each others alignment, but I'm fairly certain I know why ash is doing it.
What's done is done, and in the future, simply point out "Roll with three dice, just to give it a higher chance of getting a good roll"
I don't think you should always default to rolling 3 dice each day. I mean if you can afford it, then sure. But, depending on the monster, some people may be better off rolling 2 or even just one die. And if they have certain dies stocked up, they can use those.
It's already been mentioned at least twice that playing stored dice means discarding two from supply. Are you trying to give bad advice?
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I feel like I should clarify how playing stored dice works for those who don't understand.
If you have a die of value y in your store and you have not played a die yet on the given Day, you can play it from your store simply by posting Play: y in the game thread. Following that, you attempt to discard 2 dice from your supply. If you can't because you don't have 2 dice in your supply, you do as much of it as you can.
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I also agree low rollers should go first tomorrow.
If anyone who contributed to the probability discussion ever accuses me of bloating a thread in the future with actually-related-to-the-game theory talk...
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ASHERSKY: Hey Voltaire...can you pass me the salt?
VOLTAIRE: *passes pepper*
I don't really know what to make of this whole Boxofdog vs ashersky thing. I can discern no info about each others alignment, but I'm fairly certain I know why ash is doing it.
What's done is done, and in the future, simply point out "Roll with three dice, just to give it a higher chance of getting a good roll"
I don't think you should always default to rolling 3 dice each day. I mean if you can afford it, then sure. But, depending on the monster, some people may be better off rolling 2 or even just one die. And if they have certain dies stocked up, they can use those.
It's already been mentioned at least twice that playing stored dice means discarding two from supply. Are you trying to give bad advice?
Discarding to play stored dice might be worth it in some circumstances. Depends what's stored and what we're fighting. And how important a specific value is.
It would probably be worth discarding 2 dice to play a 1 against an ogre. Also probably worth it to discard 2 dice to play a 6 against a witch.
But you're also sacrificing the opportunity to store another die, which is significant.
I think this is going to depend on how beneficial/harmful the monsters are. If it's more important to beat the monster, play the 1 by discarding. If it's more important the get the 1-shot roles, store a monster and just hope.
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"store a monster" should be something like: "roll dice to store one"
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Well, I'm glad we got all that dice-rolling theory out of the way and we all understand that 3 dice is strictly superior to 2 dice and (usually) superior to 1 die (unless there's no chance of winning).
The plus side is that we can really examine this stuff, and I feel like it's more meaningful than RVS. Offhand, I'm leaning town on theorel (ensuring the proper math was clear so it was understood what the best rolling mechanisms are), slight town on EFHW/Volt/ashersky (EFHW for trying to weed out potential bad advice, volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing, and ashersky because he was concerned theorel was wrong - even though really ash was wrong, ensuring we were all on the same page was and is important when we look at how to best combat these monsters!). Basically null on everybody else, maybe slight scum on Box but I think that he's being truthful when he says that being emotional is just part of who he is. Slight town on faust (for the low roller suggestion) and pingpongsam (for endorsing it so quickly), though I'm not as sold on these two as any of my other "slight town" reads. Scum read on eevee for the "use your best judgment on claiming" statement - I feel like this is something we've seen scum say in prior games with the intent to bait out a claim or two from eager town (as I'm wont to be and trying hard not to do anymore, see innovation for an example).
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Ash, why did you skip plan 2?
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vote:xeiron
Archetype, what are the reasons for this vote?
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Okay, I have to wrench myself away from this theory talk. The goal of the game is lynching scum, not beating monsters. Beating monsters is just a thing to do in the meantime. 23's neutral...assuming 3 scum.
Sooo...do I remember anything about anybody here? Probably not, paying too much attention to content rather than who's writing it. BUT, let's see if I even remember who is playing the game.
Ashersky: he seems like ashersky. He hasn't self-voted yet, so I guess he's scum (I mean, there has been excessive theory talk, so that might have made him not do it. But Voltaire and xeiron voted him, and he didn't respond by voting for himself...) However, he did argue about theory in a way which I wouldn't entirely expect from scum-ash. The lack of self-vote turns a town-ish read to null-ish. scumScore: 23
efhw: She doesn't like buffy. So, she's probably scum. She's contributed some to theory, argued with ash. I have always thought she seemed townie, but she's always been town (in games I've read with her in it). I also don't know why she seems townie, she just expresses herself in a way that sounds like she's trying to help. I should probably read shakespeare at some point (she was scum there right?) scumScore: 20
Eevee: lots of theory talk from us, leads to minimal contributions from Eevee. Yeah, I'll go with null read here. scumScore: 23
faust: He's added some theory stuff recently. I think it was correct, and possibly contributive. scumScore: 21
Voltaire: He rolled low. He accused ashersky over his theory-stuff in such a way to excuse his future low roll (which then showed up). Of the low rollers, I certainly find him scummiest, precisely because he excused it before it happened. Now, maybe he rolled fewer dice, and got unlucky...certainly it's possible. And low result is more likely given he rolled fewer dice than ideal. Still, scummiest low roll of the day is definitely here. scumScore: 30
xeiron: He's contributed positively to theory-talk. Trying to find a way to make the most of our rolls. This is likely a xeiron thing, not a town-xeiron thing. His ideas are much less "out there" than they were in Innovation where he was slightly easy-to-frame town. I'm not sure if this is just a product of the set-up though. He sheeped onto ash with Voltaire though. Hmm...scumScore: 23
Jorbles: he rolled a 2! A 2! He apologized for it, and gave the whole resigned "go ahead and lynch me", which is a scumtell. He did not, however, excuse it beforehand. I don't know anything specific he's said otherwise, but nothing stands out negatively either. Everyone kind of glossed over the "lynch me" comment which seems odd, but not scummy-Jorbles odd. More an odd situation, where I would have expected someone to call it out. Theory-talk + lack of specific players that get after resignedness more? Maybe someone called it out and I missed it. scumScore: 28
Box: doesn't like probability...emotional...He's like my polar opposite. I haven't followed closely any game with Box in it...but I have seen enough to recognize where ash was coming from. Emotional players are frustrating for me, because I don't like playing the emotional game, and I have to worry about insulting them. Anyways, he did play a 6, and made a claim which hurts town only if he's town. Actually, I think he's probably town playing fast and loose as he is...he could be clever scum, but I'm leaning town for the moment. scumScore: 20
chairs: I think he's in this game? He's busy now, and I don't really remember anything from him. But he was town last time that was true. Need more info. scumScore: 23
Archetype: He's the third low-roller right? (wrong!) I don't remember much here...I know he's said stuff, taken positions on topics, but not really anything out there that I recall. He's a bit scummy for "blending in". scumScore: 25
Okay, so 2 more players now...thinking...
can't remember...looking up...
Oh pingpongsam! I remembered him earlier but forgot. Yeah pps seems to be playing a town game. Scumhunting and theorizing as is appropriate. Total town-read here: scumScore: 15
Okay other one?
Walrus: he's the other low roller (which I did know earlier, but forgot by the time I got to arch). Okay, I think he's just been quiet. At least he's posted very little in the last 24 hours or so. Could just be busy, could be lurking scum. His low roll is least scummy of the three, but it's still there. Need more data scumScore: 26
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Also, although it seems less meaningful this game than usual (because theory talk leads to theory-people talking more which is not inherently townie...) Post Count, for reference:
theorel: 47
ash: 46
pps: 18
voltaire: 17
Box: 12
chairs: 12
xeiron: 11
faust: 10
Jorbles: 8
efhw: 8
archetype: 8
Eevee: 7
walrus: 6
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This is my first game with several members, walrus included. Still, 6 posts is suspiciously quiet.
eevee, OTOH, looks really suspicious with only 7 posts. That said, I can't really see eevee playing lurking scum or town so I have to assume we'll see more of him soon enough.
BoxofDog has been disproportionately emotive. I am assuming ashersky is familiar with Box's disposition and is intentionally pushing him for reactions that have analytical value.
Other than my previous suspicions on Volt I have to say his later posts have seemed more townish but then I might switchup my game too if my scum-scent had been picked up.
Archeteype has a totally unexplained vote hanging out there.
ashersky and theorel have dominated the discussion which, on the one hand is their typical playstyle while on the other it is a great way for scum to control the game.
chairs' contributions have felt townish and he hasn't seemed shy of participating.
I'm getting pretty neutral reads all around but we have relatively low signal to noise especially with low post-counts and I am unfamiliar with several players.
I would find it hardest to fault faust or chairs. Easiest to fault Volt, Box, Arch, Eevee and Walrus. And my gut tells me in that list of 5 one of them is probably scum.
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chairs, my comment was a reply to ashersky's plan of our best monster hunters claiming. I think they should decide themselves. if we have a precedent of scum saying this, that's great. we want to force scum to take protown-positions.
in my opinion theorel's read post summarized the game this far in a very accurate way. I'd say him and PPS have been the most useful for town this far.
Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
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Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
I guarantee not all scum will do this, though. It's also a great way to mislynch people. Scum get amazing cred by playing high die rolls, and then they can mislynch the townies who rolled low.
I'd actually assume with a 3-man team (most likely what we're facing, right?), 2ish of them roll high and one of them tries to "sabotage" with low rolls.
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Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
I guarantee not all scum will do this, though. It's also a great way to mislynch people. Scum get amazing cred by playing high die rolls, and then they can mislynch the townies who rolled low.
I'd actually assume with a 3-man team (most likely what we're facing, right?), 2ish of them roll high and one of them tries to "sabotage" with low rolls.
Yes, it's a three man team, see the OP:
Three of your number have betrayed the forces of Good and been recruited by the Mafia. They will work together with the Monsters to try to bring the Town to its knees, but must also fight against them so as not to give themselves away.
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One of these days I will read the rules.
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Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
I guarantee not all scum will do this, though. It's also a great way to mislynch people. Scum get amazing cred by playing high die rolls, and then they can mislynch the townies who rolled low.
I'd actually assume with a 3-man team (most likely what we're facing, right?), 2ish of them roll high and one of them tries to "sabotage" with low rolls.
Yeah, but we have to be more negative towards low rolls or scum has just an open invitation to not help town out with high rolls at all.
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At this point, D1, I believe rolling low numbers is one of the strongest scumtells we can get. Sure, it may be unlucky town. If so, well, bad luck for us.
The only problem I see is there might be a town PR that somehow profits from storing high numbers... But I doubt that, storing high numbers already gives you 1-shot abilities.
I'm going to vote: Jorbles. Our best shot at this point.
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One of these days I will read the rules.
And be promptly lynched for it.
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Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
I guarantee not all scum will do this, though. It's also a great way to mislynch people. Scum get amazing cred by playing high die rolls, and then they can mislynch the townies who rolled low.
I'd actually assume with a 3-man team (most likely what we're facing, right?), 2ish of them roll high and one of them tries to "sabotage" with low rolls.
Yeah, but we have to be more negative towards low rolls or scum has just an open invitation to not help town out with high rolls at all.
This is a good point.
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I'd actually assume with a 3-man team (most likely what we're facing, right?), 2ish of them roll high and one of them tries to "sabotage" with low rolls.
I agree with this. Additionally, probability-wise there's like an 80% chance that one of you is scum (well, would be if everyone rolled 3 dice...which while not true, is still a useful barometer I think).
I think it's fairly likely that if more than 1 scum sabotaged, we'd see more low rolls than this.
If that's what happened there is 1 scum in the 3 of Jorbles, Walrus, Voltaire. And 2 scum in the remaining 10 players. For whichever of the low rollers is town, this gives you pretty good odds.
OTOH: if it did "just happen", then scum could have contributed high numbers to look townier. But that would imply that it happened with less than 12 players, which makes it less and less likely as you take players out of the pool.
@pps: re: eevee, he's been overall posting less for a while. Especially day1. I think that's 1 of the most significant meta changes that's happened while you were away.
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Just did a re-read. Wish shraeye were here to find me scummy for it. 8)
I have town reads on xeiron (thinking through theory/strategy), theorel (playing a clearly pro-town game and being targeted by scum [could he be faking it for cred? I guess, but I'd imagine it would be better used on other players]), Eevee (making his point about how we have to punish low rollers somehow), BoxofDog (derpclaiming number of dice and results).
I have null reads on chairs (mostly empty posts), pps (on re-read I could totally see scum being that brash), ash (playing how he always plays - I don't see the value in it and sometimes find it anti-town, but it's not an alignment tell), Archetype (unexplained vote and empty posts), faust (asking low rollers to go first is pro-town, but other than that I don't see anything from him).
I don't even remember EFHW, Jorbles, or Walrus.
No scum reads on anyone, which is to be expected. Jorbles, your rolling low does not make me want to auto-lynch you. But you haven't contributed anything since your low roll. That's bad.
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chairs, my comment was a reply to ashersky's plan of our best monster hunters claiming. I think they should decide themselves. if we have a precedent of scum saying this, that's great. we want to force scum to take protown-positions.
in my opinion theorel's read post summarized the game this far in a very accurate way. I'd say him and PPS have been the most useful for town this far.
Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
I accept your scrutiny and think that I deserve it even if it's just because I was bad at rolling. Honestly if you lynched me for having the lowest rolls I don't think it would be a terrible thing, at least it would scare scum into rolling high.
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If that's what happened there is 1 scum in the 3 of Jorbles, Walrus, Voltaire. And 2 scum in the remaining 10 players. For whichever of the low rollers is town, this gives you pretty good odds.
OTOH: if it did "just happen", then scum could have contributed high numbers to look townier. But that would imply that it happened with less than 12 players, which makes it less and less likely as you take players out of the pool.
Unless anyone can contradict theorel and show he's using bad math, I like this approach. Especially because Walrus and Jorbles are 2 of my 3 "I don't even remember thems".
vote: Jorbles. Voting Jorbles for his "just lynch me" is super-tempting. Watching this wagon grow or not grow should also be a great way to figure out if it's a mislynch due to said comment. Also like I already said there's nothing to him overall or especially after his roll.
As for Walrus, he usually posts much more. His posts are empty. Lurking. I could also vote here.
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Or I should say, not throwing away or storing their high numbers, as that's probably more accurate.
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Hey theorel, have you ever compared your scum scores to the end game flips to see how good you are at scum hunting? Just curious about how much faith you have in your system/ability to read scum.
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Do we know what the reward (healing water) and threat (stun) mean? Wouldn't they affect town and mafia alike, so that they should want to kill the monsters too. Maybe this reward they would not want us to get.
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Do we know what the reward (healing water) and threat (stun) mean? Wouldn't they affect town and mafia alike, so that they should want to kill the monsters too. Maybe this reward they would not want us to get.
We don't know what the rewards/punishments are, but they are generally understood to be good for town vs bad for town.
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Just did a re-read. Wish shraeye were here to find me scummy for it. 8)
I have town reads on xeiron (thinking through theory/strategy), theorel (playing a clearly pro-town game and being targeted by scum [could he be faking it for cred? I guess, but I'd imagine it would be better used on other players]), Eevee (making his point about how we have to punish low rollers somehow), BoxofDog (derpclaiming number of dice and results).
I have null reads on chairs (mostly empty posts), pps (on re-read I could totally see scum being that brash), ash (playing how he always plays - I don't see the value in it and sometimes find it anti-town, but it's not an alignment tell), Archetype (unexplained vote and empty posts), faust (asking low rollers to go first is pro-town, but other than that I don't see anything from him).
I don't even remember EFHW, Jorbles, or Walrus.
No scum reads on anyone, which is to be expected. Jorbles, your rolling low does not make me want to auto-lynch you. But you haven't contributed anything since your low roll. That's bad.
Since shraeye isn't here, I'll do it for him. This post reads scummy to me. I don't think his heart is in it.
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Vote Count 1.Voltaire
BoxOfDog (1): ashersky
xeiron (1): Archetype
ashersky (2): xeiron, BoxOfDog
Voltaire (2): theorel, pingpongsam
Jorbles (2): faust, Voltaire
not voting (5): Eevee, Jorbles, WalrusMcFishSr, chairs, EFHW
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
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I tend to believe that scum would be tempted to throw a roll to both save a high roll and hinder towns ability to fight the monster. Since I can POE myself out of it, this makes me suspicious of Walrus, and Voltaire. I'm more inclined to suspect Voltaire than Walrus. This isn't OMGUS (I actually think his position on me is reasonable). Vote: Voltaire He's sitting in that sweet spot of being active without being the biggest contributor, which is how I believe Voltaire plays scum. I'm at least getting similar vibes to what I've seen him do as scum in the past.
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Just did a re-read. Wish shraeye were here to find me scummy for it. 8)
I have town reads on xeiron (thinking through theory/strategy), theorel (playing a clearly pro-town game and being targeted by scum [could he be faking it for cred? I guess, but I'd imagine it would be better used on other players]), Eevee (making his point about how we have to punish low rollers somehow), BoxofDog (derpclaiming number of dice and results).
I have null reads on chairs (mostly empty posts), pps (on re-read I could totally see scum being that brash), ash (playing how he always plays - I don't see the value in it and sometimes find it anti-town, but it's not an alignment tell), Archetype (unexplained vote and empty posts), faust (asking low rollers to go first is pro-town, but other than that I don't see anything from him).
I don't even remember EFHW, Jorbles, or Walrus.
No scum reads on anyone, which is to be expected. Jorbles, your rolling low does not make me want to auto-lynch you. But you haven't contributed anything since your low roll. That's bad.
Since shraeye isn't here, I'll do it for him. This post reads scummy to me. I don't think his heart is in it.
I agree that this feels kind of weak. It also feels a little like maybe a scum partner calling out his buddy for lurking... but!
chairs, my comment was a reply to ashersky's plan of our best monster hunters claiming. I think they should decide themselves. if we have a precedent of scum saying this, that's great. we want to force scum to take protown-positions.
in my opinion theorel's read post summarized the game this far in a very accurate way. I'd say him and PPS have been the most useful for town this far.
Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
I accept your scrutiny and think that I deserve it even if it's just because I was bad at rolling. Honestly if you lynched me for having the lowest rolls I don't think it would be a terrible thing, at least it would scare scum into rolling high.
I don't feel like if Jorbles were scum and Volt were scum that he'd have responded to Volt this way, because the "yeah go ahead and lynch me" scumtell seems like something you wouldn't reply to your scum buddies with. Therefore, I posit that if one flips scum, it is more likely than not that the other one is town. In particular, I feel like Jorbles is the more likely town member from this exchange, and will vote: Voltaire.
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Voltaire has an uncanny ability to pick up day 1 suspicion.
That being said, this is the first time I don't oppose the wagon.
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Volt's vote on Jorbles is a rational vote but ultimately it confirms my vote on Volt. It is exactly how I would be pushing if I were scum.
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Players who have expressed a scum read on me: theorel, pps, EFHW, Jorbles, chairs, ashersky, Eevee(?)
Players who have expressed a neutral read on me: Eevee(?)
Players who have expressed a town read on me: *crickets*
Players who have not expressed any read on me: Archetype, Walrus, BoxOfDog, xeiron, faust
Correct me if I'm wrong.
Volt's vote on Jorbles is a rational vote but ultimately it confirms my vote on Volt. It is exactly how I would be pushing if I were scum.
confirmation biasssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
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On Voltaire: I'm also fine lynching him for low-rolling. It also struck me as odd that he didn't know the number of scum from the OP, but guessed it correctly. Scum would of course know how many partners they have, but believe that others don't.
On the other hand, people really seem to be jumping the Voltaire wagon now that it's established that we lynch a low-roller. It's not unlikely that scum tries to get Jorbles out of trouble.
My vote stays on Jorbles for now. I might switch to Voltaire later.
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chairs, my comment was a reply to ashersky's plan of our best monster hunters claiming. I think they should decide themselves. if we have a precedent of scum saying this, that's great. we want to force scum to take protown-positions.
in my opinion theorel's read post summarized the game this far in a very accurate way. I'd say him and PPS have been the most useful for town this far.
Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
Fair enough, and I think coming from you it's a little different (because that seems a fairly standard Eevee statement from both town!Eevee and scum!Eevee - I think you mentioned something similar in Innovation, for example?). For most of the people that regularly play f.ds Mafia, though, I think "claim when it's appropriate" is usually a scumtell as a more subtle "OH GOD PLEASE CLAIM I WANT TO KNOW THE BEST LYNCH TARGETS".
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chairs, my comment was a reply to ashersky's plan of our best monster hunters claiming. I think they should decide themselves. if we have a precedent of scum saying this, that's great. we want to force scum to take protown-positions.
in my opinion theorel's read post summarized the game this far in a very accurate way. I'd say him and PPS have been the most useful for town this far.
Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
Fair enough, and I think coming from you it's a little different (because that seems a fairly standard Eevee statement from both town!Eevee and scum!Eevee - I think you mentioned something similar in Innovation, for example?). For most of the people that regularly play f.ds Mafia, though, I think "claim when it's appropriate" is usually a scumtell as a more subtle "OH GOD PLEASE CLAIM I WANT TO KNOW THE BEST LYNCH TARGETS".
Yeah, the point of my statement was to sway people away from claiming rather than invite claims. I think a lot of people here, myself definitely included, have a tendency of claiming too early.
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~Section 1~
Haha! Oh gosh.
I skimmed through so much posts..
I should probably start posting a lot more.
But then again.. I had a lot going on yesterday, and I don't have anything today until around 7:00 PM.
I'll tone down the emotional-ness-ness-ness. Just understand the only time something like that happens, is when you poke me in the side, purposefully trying to get a reaction out of me. That bothers me both online, and in real life.
~Section 2~
Uhh, the Voltaire situation.. I have.. No idea.
My low-level skimming ability is taking it's toll.
I think.. Neutral..? Honestly though, I'm neutral on anybody; especially people who haven't been posting enough (5-9 posts)
Until I start seeing some rock-hard-abs evidence, I'm keeping my vote on ash.
*shifty eyes* I'm watchin' you, boy..
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Hey, sorry I didn't post much yesterday. To be honest, I was kind of annoyed that I posted what I thought was pretty elementary probability theory, for some reason it started a spurious 12-page argument about the Gambler's Fallacy, only to ultimately arrive at the same conclusion.
But I can't stay mad at math lol. What can I say. Here's a completely irrelevant math thought I had that I'm sharing anyway--with this Troll, by adding up the squares of all of our rolls, we're halfway towards calculating the standard deviation of our values! Haha but of course that has nothing to do with anything.
Now with regards to the actual gameplay. I recognize that this is the first time several of you have played with me, and it's one of my first forum games as well (currently playing M31, Avalon, and Diplomacy, that's all). So it may be difficult for us to read each other.
Is ashersky always this assertive in games? It seems like he's trying to position himself into something of a "leader" position, with his many plans and such. It all seems reasonable so far...I was thinking something about a flavor-based PR as well, but it seems more likely to me that that would help town than scum, so I'm OK with that plan regardless. The other Mafia game I'm playing has an IC, so maybe I'm not used to this IC-less power vacuum dynamic. In any case I would caution against trusting him too much. Null read for now, and if someone has some comments on ash's behavior in other games I would appreciate that. His contention with BoxOfDog also has no real significance to me, as I do not know Box's typical gameplay style.
Now, re: Voltaire. Yes, he got a low roll, but so did I, so I can understand the frustration there, and it seems to me like scum would be more careful to try to blend in with the dice rolls. Now, in M31, Voltaire definitely has been very active, and he seems much more subdued here. But if he doesn't understand the rules so well then maybe that's explainable as well, or maybe his behavior in M31 was also influenced by the presence of the IC.
So null to scummy on Voltaire, but I am honestly more suspicious of those who built up his wagon so fast. It seems like it would be an easy excuse to jump on a blame train and I could see scum capitalizing on that chance. That is probably where I would put my scrutiny for now.
theorel seems mathy and helpful. My initial impression is towny.
I'm at work right now so I'll stay unvoted until I get home and have the chance to properly consider things. But I did want to check in at least.
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Now, in M31, Voltaire definitely has been very active, and he seems much more subdued here. But if he doesn't understand the rules so well then maybe that's explainable as well, or maybe his behavior in M31 was also influenced by the presence of the IC.
Please keep in mind that talking about ongoing games is strongly discouraged. You are free to use ongoing games for your personal reads but should refrain from posting anything about ongoing games--whether dead or alive in that game.
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Just a comment about Threats and Rewards. Threats are designed to be bad for Town and/or good for Mafia. Rewards are designed to be good for Town and/or bad for Mafia.
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Now, in M31, Voltaire definitely has been very active, and he seems much more subdued here. But if he doesn't understand the rules so well then maybe that's explainable as well, or maybe his behavior in M31 was also influenced by the presence of the IC.
Sorry! :-[
Please keep in mind that talking about ongoing games is strongly discouraged. You are free to use ongoing games for your personal reads but should refrain from posting anything about ongoing games--whether dead or alive in that game.
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Haha, and a quotefail to boot.
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Vote Count 1.3
BoxOfDog (1): ashersky
xeiron (1): Archetype
ashersky (2): xeiron, BoxOfDog
Voltaire (4): theorel, pingpongsam, Jorbles, chairs
Jorbles (2): faust, Voltaire
not voting (3): Eevee, WalrusMcFishSr, EFHW
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 271
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So, Eevee, where do you want your vote to be?
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So, Eevee, where do you want your vote to be?
I think on you or Jorbles.
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Vote: Voltaire. I was going to hold off when I saw how fast the wagon built, but looking at it I see the people there all have made towny impressions on me.
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L-2
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On Voltaire: I'm also fine lynching him for low-rolling. It also struck me as odd that he didn't know the number of scum from the OP, but guessed it correctly. Scum would of course know how many partners they have, but believe that others don't.
So...I'm scummy for knowing how to balance games?
Players who have expressed a scum read on me: theorel, pps, EFHW, Jorbles, chairs, ashersky, Eevee, faust, Walrus*
Players who have expressed a neutral read on me: BoxOfDog, Walrus*
Players who have expressed a town read on me: *crickets*
Players who have not expressed any read on me: Archetype, xeiron
Please tell me someone sees the problem.
Other than rolling low, the case on me is that I went after the "easy" ash (mis?)lynch and...anything else?
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Reads are mostly same as before, but here's an update:
Town:
xeiron (thinking through theory/strategy)
theorel (playing a clearly pro-town game and being targeted by scum [could he be faking it for cred? I guess, but I'd imagine it would be better used on other players])
Eevee (making his point about how we have to punish low rollers somehow)
Walrus (catch-up post reads genuine + attempting meta analysis)
Null:
chairs (mostly empty posts)
pps (on re-read I could totally see scum being that brash)
ash (playing how he always plays - I don't see the value in it and sometimes find it anti-town, but it's not an alignment tell)
Archetype (unexplained vote and empty posts)
faust (asking low rollers to go first is pro-town, but other than that I don't see anything from him. Also hedged on me)
BoxofDog (derpclaiming number of dice and results but also does seem to be faking it in his most recent post)
Scummy:
Jorbles (blending in, go-ahead-and-lynch-me statement)
EFHW (blending in, climbing on my wagon for weak reason ("he gave reads but I am going to say they are faked without providing any examples and trust people will just believe it by power of suggestion")
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On second thought, unvote and Vote: chairs. I think his vote on Voltaire is fishy. I was distracted at first by his agreeing with me. Dang it!
This is the post where he votes. He pairs Voltaire and Jorbles together as if one is scum the other isn't, following a quote from Eevee and Jorbles.
And he finds Voltaire scummy despite having found him towny just 15 posts earlier.
.... slight town on EFHW/Volt/ashersky (EFHW for trying to weed out potential bad advice, volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing, and ashersky because he was concerned theorel was wrong - even though really ash was wrong, ensuring we were all on the same page was and is important when we look at how to best combat these monsters!). ....
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And he finds Voltaire scummy despite having found him towny just 15 posts earlier.
.... slight town on EFHW/Volt/ashersky (EFHW for trying to weed out potential bad advice, volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing, and ashersky because he was concerned theorel was wrong - even though really ash was wrong, ensuring we were all on the same page was and is important when we look at how to best combat these monsters!). ....
Now that is a good catch.
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On second thought, unvote and Vote: chairs. I think his vote on Voltaire is fishy. I was distracted at first by his agreeing with me. Dang it!
This is the post where he votes. He pairs Voltaire and Jorbles together as if one is scum the other isn't, following a quote from Eevee and Jorbles.
And he finds Voltaire scummy despite having found him towny just 15 posts earlier.
.... slight town on EFHW/Volt/ashersky (EFHW for trying to weed out potential bad advice, volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing, and ashersky because he was concerned theorel was wrong - even though really ash was wrong, ensuring we were all on the same page was and is important when we look at how to best combat these monsters!). ....
...I totally thought that Eevee post was Volt. That absolutely makes a difference in my opinion. I should quit reading things on my phone!
unvote.
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Yay, more probabilities!
Probability that your highest roll is a 3, assuming 3 rolled dice: 1/8 (Voltaire, Walrus)
Probability that your highest roll is a 2, assuming 3 rolled dice: 1/27 (Jorbles)
So Voltaire/Walrus having a bad roll is reasonably likely. Jorbles having a bad roll however is quite unlikely. It's much more likely that A) he only rolled 1 dice or B) he stored a higher number.
Now A would mean he probably has a really low supply, in which case he's not the worst mislynch ever. B is a scummy thing to do.
Yeah, my vote remains on Jorbles.
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I feel there is likely scum in Volt/Jorbles. Faust's analysis on the roll values sways me towards Jorbles.
The "go ahead and lynch me" attitude is a tough nut. It comes off to me as "I won't commit to a defense because I have nothing good".
Volt seems to think the only case on him is his roll value but he glosses over his scumslip that he knew he had a 3 man team and assumed the rest of us to be ignorant of that fact because he hadn't thoroughly read the rules.
Then, on a more personal, gut note, I didn't like his reaction to my analysis of his roll, he definitely tried to distort my analysis as fishing when in fact, I'd have rather he not even have responded (were he Town). Also, until the Lynch-The Low-Rollers idea started to surface he was firmly planted on ashersky despite repeat claims that he read him null with a typical playstyle.
Hell, maybe we have two scum under the microscope despite the very low probability of such.
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Volt seems to think the only case on him is his roll value but he glosses over his scumslip that he knew he had a 3 man team and assumed the rest of us to be ignorant of that fact because he hadn't thoroughly read the rules.
How in the world is that a scumslip? I forgot we were told how many scum there are. I thought "13 players? Probably 3". That's the town-narrative (and the real one, but I know you can't know that). There is also the narrative where I'm scum faking for cred. I don't see how either precludes the other - therefore, my statement is just a thing that happened to have a read on, like most things this game, and not a statement that "proves" my alignment one way or another.
Then, on a more personal, gut note, I didn't like his reaction to my analysis of his roll, he definitely tried to distort my analysis as fishing when in fact, I'd have rather he not even have responded (were he Town). Also, until the Lynch-The Low-Rollers idea started to surface he was firmly planted on ashersky despite repeat claims that he read him null with a typical playstyle.
I don't think you were fishing - note that I never said you were fishing, and note how I never accused you for that post at all. I just pointed out that answering it would be bad. I'm sorry if that's not how you would have preferred I respond, but obviously I can't read your mind and will respond how I see fit.
Also, I never made repeated claims that ashersky was a null read prior to voting Jorbles. I made one (1) post that said that. One != repeated.
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How come when I express something in a genuine manner, I'm accused of faking.. And when I make a sarcastic comment, I'm attacked ._.
I don't understand..
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And he finds Voltaire scummy despite having found him towny just 15 posts earlier.
.... slight town on EFHW/Volt/ashersky (EFHW for trying to weed out potential bad advice, volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing, and ashersky because he was concerned theorel was wrong - even though really ash was wrong, ensuring we were all on the same page was and is important when we look at how to best combat these monsters!). ....
Now that is a good catch.
I thought that the post from Eevee (that I thought you'd authored) was really off from what I'd felt from you earlier, hence the "huh, that's... kind of scummy." and my vote. I'm still deciding whether I think it's scummy coming from Eevee, because my favorite furry pokémon plays differently than you do.
I'm really glad EFHW caught that, and I think it makes EFHW more towny.
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It looks like to me that Voltaire is trying to completely avoid anymore attention.
I'm a little bit curious as to how he would play if we didn't gang up on him.. Though, that's only left to my own imagination now ;-;
But lets think about it.
If we did let most of his scummy behavior slide up till now, would he still be acting just as suspicious?
Would Voltaire really come off as a Mafia?
Just passing an idea, but now I'm genuinely wondering what the answer to that question would be.
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vote:xeiron
Archetype, what are the reasons for this vote?
None. It's early game, why not throw a vote out?
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Yay, more probabilities!
Probability that your highest roll is a 3, assuming 3 rolled dice: 1/8 (Voltaire, Walrus)
Probability that your highest roll is a 2, assuming 3 rolled dice: 1/27 (Jorbles)
So Voltaire/Walrus having a bad roll is reasonably likely. Jorbles having a bad roll however is quite unlikely. It's much more likely that A) he only rolled 1 dice or B) he stored a higher number.
Now A would mean he probably has a really low supply, in which case he's not the worst mislynch ever. B is a scummy thing to do.
Yeah, my vote remains on Jorbles.
The only real defense I have is based on how much you believe that I would know that and know how suspicious it would look. I took a computer science major, multiple stats and probability classes at university. I know how bad it looks to roll three dice and then play a 2. I was really surprised it happened, and kinda resolved myself to being the likely lynch as soon as it happened. The defense is that I know how bad it looks, so if I had been scum I would never have saved a higher roll to play a 2. Whether or not you believe that is on you. I still think it's good to punish bad rolls, so I don't think I'm a terrible choice for a lynch, even if all that comes is that scum learn to not push it too much with bad rolls. I may have a better defense as the day progresses, but right now there's little. I think Voltaire is scummier than me, but I can see why I look bad.
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Wouldn't call that a scum slip. The fact that there were 3 scum were one of the things that stuck out to me when I read the OP the first time.
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unvote
Great last couple of pages. I like a Volt hitting L-2 and dropping back. Good stuff to analyze.
Still weekending, but wanted to get a post in.
How are we/what do we still need to kill the Troll?
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We need more than 1 roll to kill the troll at this point, but we only have 1 roll available. So, excepting power roles, it's impossible.
We need a total of 41.
So, if xeiron rolled a 6 we'd need 5 extra. That's achieved by ANY of our rolls increasing by 1.
If xeiron rolled a 5 we'd need 16 extra. That can only be achieved by increasing a roll by 2 (or adding another 4+ into play).
So, even if we have a power role, it might not be worth it to use it if xeiron can't produce a 6. Of course, it isn't worth it for xeiron to play a 6 if we don't have a power role that can effect it.
IF we have a power role that can achieve a +2 or adding a 4+ into play...then it is probably worth it for them to do so and then have xeiron roll. If he rolls 4 dice, he's got 80% odds of a 5+.
Note a +2 on a 6 would yield +28, so xeiron would only need a 4+, as would a 5 on an additional d6. A 6 on an additional play, would mean xeiron only needs a 3.
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play: 4
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Now X needs a 5 or 6 and we kill the troll.
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I'm pretty convinced ashersky is town. If not, that's a heck of a scum gambit to force my reroll and then use another scum power to give town power to win just for town-cred for ashersky.
I mean, I guess...maybe...if xeiron is scum and he knows we can't win anyways. But ash is my strongest town-read at this point, unless he didn't actually play an additional 4 to the monster somehow.
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Vote Count 1.4
xeiron (1): Archetype
ashersky (2): xeiron, BoxOfDog
Voltaire (3): theorel, pingpongsam, Jorbles
Jorbles (2): faust, Voltaire
chairs (1): EFHW
not voting (4): Eevee, WalrusMcFishSr, chairs, ashersky
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 287
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Yeah, that was extremely pro-town of ash. Thanks man!
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Thanks ashersky, good luck to xeiron! Theorel - you are recommending he roll 4 dice?
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Wait did ash just roll another die? OK that's awesome, town points for him I guess...surely that would be a hell of a Mafia gambit, and a cool power would explain partly why he's been acting like the big cheese.
So, if xeiron rolls one die, he'll have a 1/3 chance (33%) of rolling a 5 or 6
Two dice for a 56% chance
Three for a 70% chance
Four for an 80% chance
Five for an 87% chance
Six for a 91% chance
etc.
So I guess it depends what you consider a tolerable risk. And who knows what other zany variables are still out there.
Now, I'm still not sure exactly what I think about Voltaire, and I said that I would look to his wagon for my first scumhunting. But honestly theorel seems quite towny to me, as I mentioned...More of a null read on PPS for now, but he hasn't done a whole lot to seem scummy either.
I will vote: Jorbles for now, because of his low roll and defeatist attitude. Sure, I can understand the frustration (and sympathize, with my similarly low roll), but I find the reaction of "Oh well, better lynch me I guess" to be kind of scummy and Eeyore-ish. It's not a lot to go on but I guess it's the best I've got for now. I also do agree with the notion that scum should learn that town means business with regards to rolls, so lynching a low roller might be important for just that reason.
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Walrus already answered as well as I could.
I mentioned the probability more as a weight of whether xeiron should have to roll first, or if it was worth it for a PR to expose themselves first. I figured if xeiron could have an 80% chance of getting a 5+ it was probably worth it for a PR to expose themselves.
Ultimately it's up to xeiron what he should roll. And some of his towniness will probably be judged based on whether he gets a 5 or higher.
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I will consider it supremely anti-town for xeiron not to roll something for this.
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I will consider it supremely anti-town for xeiron not to roll something for this.
This.
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Just skimmed over the thread again. Doesn't anyone find it scummy that theorel rerolled? Everyone seems to assume that some scum forced him to reroll, but I think it's more likely that theorel caused this himself. Look at it this way: He plays a 6 early, making us all believe we have good chances to kill the monster (and thus we don't roll as many dice as we would otherwise), and then maybe uses some ability to decrease his roll.
What speaks against this theory is that his exchange with Jimmmmm seems rather genuine, but I guess it could be faked. I'll definitely keep an eye on him, although he is no good lynch for today.
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Just skimmed over the thread again. Doesn't anyone find it scummy that theorel rerolled? Everyone seems to assume that some scum forced him to reroll, but I think it's more likely that theorel caused this himself. Look at it this way: He plays a 6 early, making us all believe we have good chances to kill the monster (and thus we don't roll as many dice as we would otherwise), and then maybe uses some ability to decrease his roll.
What speaks against this theory is that his exchange with Jimmmmm seems rather genuine, but I guess it could be faked. I'll definitely keep an eye on him, although he is no good lynch for today.
I have noted this, but i think his excange with jim sounds genuine, and I have big townread on him in general. I also thing the other ones who rolled 6 seem towny. Maybe with the exeption of Archetype who is close to a nullread. For me, those four is off limits for a lynch.
I will roll soon
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play 5
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Vote Count 1.5
xeiron (1): Archetype
ashersky (2): xeiron, BoxOfDog
Voltaire (3): theorel, pingpongsam, Jorbles
Jorbles (3): faust, Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr
chairs (1): EFHW
not voting (3): Eevee, chairs, ashersky
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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Boomshakala?
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Wooo!
Big townpoints to ashersky for that. It could be a gambit, but I think scum!ashersky would've waited for xeiron to roll before using his power to seem more like a hero.
Vote:Jorbles I feel like if were town and got a bad roll, he'd make an effort to be active in thread. But he's not really doing that.
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vote: Archtype. I think those are speculations, at best, about both ashersky and Jorbles. I also think ash is town, but for me that 2 is completely a nulltell re: Jorbles, and I wouldn't assume he'd play more b/c of it. Maybe he's resigned to his fate, or just playing the way he always does, which is to post regularly but not frequently.
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Boomshakalaka?
FTFY
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town points for xeiron!
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town points for xeiron!
Not really. All he did was follow theorel's orders. Having him go last gives a wrongly percieved vision of him being a hero if he lands the killng hit, and as a villain if he failed to do it. So no. Him playing a 5 doesn't really prove to me anything about his alignment.
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town points for xeiron!
Not really. All he did was follow theorel's orders. Having him go last gives a wrongly percieved vision of him being a hero if he lands the killng hit, and as a villain if he failed to do it. So no. Him playing a 5 doesn't really prove to me anything about his alignment.
He could have played a lower number, said the best he got was a four or something. Definitely helped town with playing that five, so townpoints from me too.
Wooo!
Big townpoints to ashersky for that. It could be a gambit, but I think scum!ashersky would've waited for xeiron to roll before using his power to seem more like a hero.
Vote:Jorbles I feel like if were town and got a bad roll, he'd make an effort to be active in thread. But he's not really doing that.
I also disagree with this a lot. I think scum Jorbles is way more likely to try to make up a bad roll by being active in thread. I'm not sayng being resigned to being the lynch is a town trait, but I don't think his behavior post-lynch makes him more likely to be scum.
Vote: archetype
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Yeah, If xeiron was scum, he had a choice. Let us lose, or make us win for town-cred. Now, he might have chosen the latter, he's certainly not confirmed town for it...but, it is worth some town-points in the balance. Just as if he'd played under a 5...he wouldn't be confirmed scum by any stretch, but it would be worth scum-points.
If the target continues to be adjustible, then xeiron loses some of that town-cred, because he could have pushed it to work and then let his scum-mates take it back.
As to Jorbles getting a 2. You're all looking at it a little wrong...It's like the lottery. Any specific individual has a very low chance of winning the lottery. But there's actually a fairly good chance that 1 or more people will win the lottery.
Jorbles getting a 2 (or worse) (assuming 3 dice rolled) a priori has a 1/3^3 chance (i.e. 1/27).
But if he's town, then he's 1 of 9 town. The chances that at least 1 of 9 town players rolled 2 or less is 1-(26/27)^9=~28.7%
The chances that those specific 3 players got 3 or less assuming 3 dice rolled is really small. (1/2^9=1/512). But as shown already, the probability that 3 players rolled that low out of 12 was around 18%.
If we include all 12 players, the chances that 1 of us rolled 2 or less as their max roll is around 36%.
I mean, it's not a guaranteed or highly likely event. But it's not as far-fetched as some would make you believe.
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I should have posted that earlier, but I wasn't thinking about it clearly among everything else going on.
Still trying to figure out how I feel about Voltaire hitting L-2. I was about ready to jump wagon at 4 votes, but decided that was not entirely unreasonable. I dunno, I'm still trying to figure out better wagon analysis.
No one was defending Voltaire (as he pointed out himself)...but I'm past the point where I really find that townie. If he was town, then scum knew he was town, and no one defended him. That implies either something about our scum players, or that Voltaire is scum.
OTOH, if Voltaire is scum, his buddies were bussing or unwilling to defend him. This makes good sense actually, because he could be the member that contributed the low roll for his team, sort of a sacrificial lamb from their perspective.
I dunno, I'm not sold either way. Don't love the random push for archetype though. I'm going to reconsider all 3 low rollers probably at the start of next week.
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Thank you theorel. You explained that much better than I could. (I couldn't remember the exact formulas to use so I kinda gave up on trying to explain it.)
Not sure what to think of voting for Archetype. I might take a look at the players who are doing that (eevee, and EFHW). And I should clarify, that I am not playing against my win condition as town to say that I'm an okay lynch. In this game I think it's important that scum feel pressured to help town. I think it is beneficial that they know that town will look hard at and possibly punish those who don't contribute positively to the monster fighting. I think on D1 I think a scum player might try to get away with tossing in a lowish roll to try and save some dice to buy some scum powers and that's why I think it's worth looking hard at Voltaire, Walrus and myself. I know I'm town, which is why I think Voltaire is the best lynch, as I think he's been acting consistent with scum that I've seen him play before (Dr. Who Mafia).
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Maybe it is just weekend related temporary absence but I am confounded that ashersky still has votes on him. Do any of his voters care to explain how they maintain their position despite what I consider to be rather strong evidence that he is town?
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Alright.
I can't live up to much more than a few posts today.. I'm going to be at a pwarty for most of the day, and I was gone for the entire morning-noon because of a musical rehearsal..
Anyway!
/unvote
/vote Voltaire
I find his behavior rather scummy, a bit more-so than Jorbles. Now, for Jorbles, I find him only less scummy, because his mistake seems sincere to me.
I'm a sucker for apologies, I know.
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/unvote
/vote Voltaire
To simplify voting counting please vote in the following manner in the future:
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
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I dunno, I'm not sold either way. Don't love the random push for archetype though. I'm going to reconsider all 3 low rollers probably at the start of next week.
That's a pretty random jab at the Archetype voters. I think I explained enough not be considered voting randomly. FOS for that.
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Thank you theorel. You explained that much better than I could. (I couldn't remember the exact formulas to use so I kinda gave up on trying to explain it.)
Not sure what to think of voting for Archetype. I might take a look at the players who are doing that (eevee, and EFHW).
Why mention it if you don't have an opinion and haven't looked into it? These two posts (Jorbles and Theorel) feel like scum coordinating a subtle discouragement of voting for Archetype. I stood up for Jorbles a moment ago, but my mind is open.
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Yeah, If xeiron was scum, he had a choice. Let us lose, or make us win for town-cred. Now, he might have chosen the latter, he's certainly not confirmed town for it...but, it is worth some town-points in the balance. Just as if he'd played under a 5...he wouldn't be confirmed scum by any stretch, but it would be worth scum-points.
If the target continues to be adjustible, then xeiron loses some of that town-cred, because he could have pushed it to work and then let his scum-mates take it back.
As to Jorbles getting a 2. You're all looking at it a little wrong...It's like the lottery. Any specific individual has a very low chance of winning the lottery. But there's actually a fairly good chance that 1 or more people will win the lottery.
Jorbles getting a 2 (or worse) (assuming 3 dice rolled) a priori has a 1/3^3 chance (i.e. 1/27).
But if he's town, then he's 1 of 9 town. The chances that at least 1 of 9 town players rolled 2 or less is 1-(26/27)^9=~28.7%
The chances that those specific 3 players got 3 or less assuming 3 dice rolled is really small. (1/2^9=1/512). But as shown already, the probability that 3 players rolled that low out of 12 was around 18%.
If we include all 12 players, the chances that 1 of us rolled 2 or less as their max roll is around 36%.
I mean, it's not a guaranteed or highly likely event. But it's not as far-fetched as some would make you believe.
Thanks, that sums it up pretty nicely. My conclusions are a little different though. As you point out, chances that one town member rolled 2 or lower are 28.7%. That means we have a 71.3% chance that Jorbles is scum, or at least playing extremely anti-town.
71.3% is a lot, and much more than I think I could achieve with ordinary scumhunting techniques D1. So really, I don't see me voting for anyone but Jorbles today.
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On the other hand, it's not like scum is going to choose to play a low roll every time. It's not like they wouldn't realize how bad it looks.
Posted this in the wrong thread at first.
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On the other hand, it's not like scum is going to choose to play a low roll every time. It's not like they wouldn't realize how bad it looks.
Posted this in the wrong thread at first.
Well. I guess? I mean, of course I'll be suspicious of the people that play low numbers two days in a row, but that could be Town just getting unlucky. And if it's scum they can just argue that they got unlucky.
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I think we need to seriously consider the balance of possibilities between always punishing low rolls to prevent Mafia from selecting low rolls, and not punishing low rolls at all (which encourages the low-rolls from Mafia).
It's iffy, but I think we should lean towards the punishment side simply because if Mafia contributes to our successes versus the monsters then (according to the mods) the rewards will hurt Mafia and/or help Town.
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On the other hand, it's not like scum is going to choose to play a low roll every time. It's not like they wouldn't realize how bad it looks.
Posted this in the wrong thread at first.
Well. I guess? I mean, of course I'll be suspicious of the people that play low numbers two days in a row, but that could be Town just getting unlucky. And if it's scum they can just argue that they got unlucky.
Oh, I totally agree. What I was saying is it's incorrect to say "Jorbles is scum 70% of the time", because that's assuming he always tries to play a low roll as scum which isn't necessarily true.
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On the other hand, it's not like scum is going to choose to play a low roll every time. It's not like they wouldn't realize how bad it looks.
Posted this in the wrong thread at first.
Well. I guess? I mean, of course I'll be suspicious of the people that play low numbers two days in a row, but that could be Town just getting unlucky. And if it's scum they can just argue that they got unlucky.
Oh, I totally agree. What I was saying is it's incorrect to say "Jorbles is scum 70% of the time", because that's assuming he always tries to play a low roll as scum which isn't necessarily true.
Awh, ok. I see what you mean.
I think we're better off not lynching the people that rolled low D1 for purely their rolls. Mainly because people get unlucky (I, for one, am very glad I lucked into a 6) and it's wrong to just auto lynch them D1. I do agree with chairs that people who don't contribute the median amount 2+ days in a row should be lynched becauuse I could really only see Mafia doing that. Like chairs, Mafia will have a hard time fighting the Monsters because they're only hurting themselves.
But for my Jorbles vote, I'm not voting him because he rolled a low number. I'm voting him because of his attitude towards his low number. I mean, yeah, it sucks, but if I was in his position I'd be posting as frequently as possible to help the Town out to compensate for my low roll.
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But for my Jorbles vote, I'm not voting him because he rolled a low number. I'm voting him because of his attitude towards his low number. I mean, yeah, it sucks, but if I was in his position I'd be posting as frequently as possible to help the Town out to compensate for my low roll.
Wouldn't he be at least equally motivated to do this if he was scum though? Pretty much everyone cares more about their scum games because they get to play scum less often.
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But for my Jorbles vote, I'm not voting him because he rolled a low number. I'm voting him because of his attitude towards his low number. I mean, yeah, it sucks, but if I was in his position I'd be posting as frequently as possible to help the Town out to compensate for my low roll.
Wouldn't he be at least equally motivated to do this if he was scum though? Pretty much everyone cares more about their scum games because they get to play scum less often.
The odds of losing when you die as Mafia are substantially higher than as Town. As Mafia a D1 lynch is going to make a very hard row to hoe for the remaining faction whereas a D1 Town lynch provides Town information and carries on as usual. It is for this reason that I'm not translating Jorbles' attitude as a Mafia ploy. That particular gambit carries far too high of a risk in general but especially for D1.
Yes, knocking over any Townie D1 still provides valuable information but I believe we should be pushing as hard as possible to find a D1 Mafia lynch. In other words, roll values provide me additional context but not initial context. If Jorbles had been exhibiting scummy behavior otherwise I'd use the low roll as circumstantial confirmation. If someone appears Town a low roll is strictly circumstantial. The notion to chase low rollers is not without merit but it ought not be the primary criteria. I feel the Jorbles wagon is entirely Roll-value biased.
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Welcome to my daily post.
I have no real suspicions besides Voltaire.. I'm sorry ;-;
I've been entirely tanked by rehearsals, and pwarties, and all this stuff..
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Hey sorry, I've been pretty busy this weekend too. But I thought I'd chime in at least.
I understand the logic of not necessarily finding scum on the low rolls. But if I'm being honest, in my very limited experience I haven't been very successful at predicting scum through deduction or quote mining or anything like that, particularly on D1 when there's not a lot to go by, particularly here amidst the distraction of all these mechanics and calculations. So I'm just going by my instinct a bit, and I don't like the way that Jorbles has reacted to his low roll. And of course there's the further importance of sending a strong message to scum about zero-tolerance for roll shenanigans. Which I think, considering the probable faultiness of my scumometer, factors significantly into my decision here.
Going by that logic, the other low rolls would be Voltaire, and of course myself. I know I said that I didn't like the wagon forming so quickly on Voltaire before, but Voltaire has been more reserved than I would have expected, and I do feel like there's something off about it...I would not be uncomfortable with the Voltaire lynch either.
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Vote Count 1.6
ashersky (1): xeiron
Voltaire (4): theorel, pingpongsam, Jorbles, BoxOfDog
Jorbles (4): faust, Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr, Archetype
Archetype (2): EFHW, Eevee
not voting (2): chairs, ashersky
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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Thank you theorel. You explained that much better than I could. (I couldn't remember the exact formulas to use so I kinda gave up on trying to explain it.)
Not sure what to think of voting for Archetype. I might take a look at the players who are doing that (eevee, and EFHW).
Why mention it if you don't have an opinion and haven't looked into it? These two posts (Jorbles and Theorel) feel like scum coordinating a subtle discouragement of voting for Archetype. I stood up for Jorbles a moment ago, but my mind is open.
I think he's probably mentioning it because I just did...especially given that the first part of his post was in response to my post. He's stating a disagreement with me, and a statement that he'll look further into it.
Archetype made an argument about why he views Jorbles as scummy given his roll (a lack of "making up for it"). Honestly, I find that a pretty weak argument. I agree with Eevee: if anything scum would be more likely to react to a poor roll with a divergence from normal play.
BUT Archetype is not scummy just for making the argument. This wasn't some overblown case, where he's super-stretching for scumminess. He expressed an opinion and added a vote to it. You then responded with basically "I disagree, you're speculating, VOTE". Really? He's speculating? In a game of mafia? FOR SHAME! What else would he be doing? Stating facts about people's alignment?
So, your argument is weak. It isn't really specific to Archetype (IMO). Everyone's speculating on stuff that looks scummy to them, and it'll look null to other people. I'm decidedly null on this argument from archetype that you found sufficiently scummy for a vote (as a quick example). So, from where I'm sitting, you basically could have picked anyone's vote and made the same argument. So, it looks to me like a random push, especially with Eevee jumping onto the wagon (though for more specific reasons). But really...Archetype's argument is the scummiest thing to happen in this game? I don't think so, and I don't really think you think so. So, not only is it a random push, but it looks to be for some unstated reason. Now, one reason I can think of is exactly the fact that it's a random weak push. Which is to say, that you don't want to get your hands dirty with a townie-lynch, so you're putting arguments out there away from the current focus. Another reason would be because Jorbles is a scum-partner (your argument practically screams chainsaw-defense). But, that assumes Jorbles is scum, of which I am not fully convinced. Another reason would be to put a vote out with a weak argument to see if scum joins in (not all reasons are scummy...I vote with unstated reasons all the time).
Now, do I really think you're scum? meh...I'm not convinced. I don't actually find this argument terribly compelling. You're certainly more suspicious than you were...but I had a town-read before. I think I'm slightly leaning scum for it.
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So Archetype is not scummy for voting for very weak reasons, but I am scummy for voting for him for slightly stronger reasons? To me his reasons seemed artificial and contrived to justify the vote.
It may just be coincidence, but two of you saying one after the other that you are going to look into the people voting Archetype reads to me as a possible attempt to subtly discourage other people from doing the same.
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vote: jorbles. That's l-2.
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I don't have time to write up a big post right now, but I do have more to say (that I think will be useful to town). Please don't quick lynch me before I have time for that. I should have time tomorrow.
(I was busy this weekend)
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Eevee, I agree that it's oversimplified to say that Jorbles is scum 70% of the time. I believe however that it's quite likely for scum to coordinate in a way where one of them rolls low and two of them roll "normal".
While writing that, I wondered whether the mafia had the ability to talk N0 and didn't find anything in the rules. Looking again, I didn't even find anything that suggests they may only talk during the night. Am I just blind, or should we suspect that mafia might be able to talk all the time?
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Eevee, I agree that it's oversimplified to say that Jorbles is scum 70% of the time. I believe however that it's quite likely for scum to coordinate in a way where one of them rolls low and two of them roll "normal".
While writing that, I wondered whether the mafia had the ability to talk N0 and didn't find anything in the rules. Looking again, I didn't even find anything that suggests they may only talk during the night. Am I just blind, or should we suspect that mafia might be able to talk all the time?
Mafia talk at night including N0. See mafia PM
(http://i.imgur.com/3K2YLNy.png)
Welcome, yuma. You are Darth Vader, a Mafia Sith Lord, along with your fellow Mafia, [player1] and [player2].
Each Day you may use force-choke on a Monster.
You win when the Town has been eliminated, or nothing can prevent this from occurring.
During the pre-game and each Night, you may chat with your fellow Mafia members here: [QT link]
Your personal QT is here: [QT link]
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unvote: Ashersky as the extra die was pro-own, and because I am starting to see his general play in a more townier light.
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vote: jorbles. That's l-2.
Can you elucidate on your specific reasons here? I know this wagon has been expounded to death but a wordless vote always seems scummy to me unless it is a late game obvious vote or a forced A/B-50/50 chance vote.
As I see it the Jorbles case is strictly roll-value based with him not helping the case with a defense (which I believe Mafia would be defending hard). I am anxious to hear anything else.
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So Archetype is not scummy for voting for very weak reasons, but I am scummy for voting for him for slightly stronger reasons? To me his reasons seemed artificial and contrived to justify the vote.
It may just be coincidence, but two of you saying one after the other that you are going to look into the people voting Archetype reads to me as a possible attempt to subtly discourage other people from doing the same.
1. I find archetype's reasons more compelling than yours. But the part that's scummy is the hypocrisy. You felt your suspicions deserved a vote, while Archetype's didn't (given that you voted him over the vote). That's slightly suspicious.
2. It's not enough to find you scummy. which is kind of the point. I don't find this behavior scummy enough to merit a vote. Even with the addition of hypocrisy, and the avoidance of viable lynches.
3. If Jorbles is lynched (which seems reasonably likely), Archetype is setting himself up to be on that wagon. If Jorbles is town, then Archetype is participating in a mislynch. You, on the other hand, threw your vote out on Archetype (chairs before that). Your voting where there's little support meaning you don't have to help lynch a scum-mate, NOR do you have to help lynch town. Archetype is NOT where scum wants to be wagon-wise. You are. You're avoiding making decisions, while appearing to by being the "first vote", and it looks suspicious to me.
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Yeah, If xeiron was scum, he had a choice. Let us lose, or make us win for town-cred. Now, he might have chosen the latter, he's certainly not confirmed town for it...but, it is worth some town-points in the balance. Just as if he'd played under a 5...he wouldn't be confirmed scum by any stretch, but it would be worth scum-points.
If the target continues to be adjustible, then xeiron loses some of that town-cred, because he could have pushed it to work and then let his scum-mates take it back.
As to Jorbles getting a 2. You're all looking at it a little wrong...It's like the lottery. Any specific individual has a very low chance of winning the lottery. But there's actually a fairly good chance that 1 or more people will win the lottery.
Jorbles getting a 2 (or worse) (assuming 3 dice rolled) a priori has a 1/3^3 chance (i.e. 1/27).
But if he's town, then he's 1 of 9 town. The chances that at least 1 of 9 town players rolled 2 or less is 1-(26/27)^9=~28.7%
The chances that those specific 3 players got 3 or less assuming 3 dice rolled is really small. (1/2^9=1/512). But as shown already, the probability that 3 players rolled that low out of 12 was around 18%.
If we include all 12 players, the chances that 1 of us rolled 2 or less as their max roll is around 36%.
I mean, it's not a guaranteed or highly likely event. But it's not as far-fetched as some would make you believe.
Thanks, that sums it up pretty nicely. My conclusions are a little different though. As you point out, chances that one town member rolled 2 or lower are 28.7%. That means we have a 71.3% chance that Jorbles is scum, or at least playing extremely anti-town.
71.3% is a lot, and much more than I think I could achieve with ordinary scumhunting techniques D1. So really, I don't see me voting for anyone but Jorbles today.
There are 2 problems with this approach I think.
1. This is like a scumslip argument, it makes wagon analysis extremely weak, which means in those 30% of scenarios where Jorbles is town, we're back at day1 again.
2. It feels wrong. This is the wrong analysis to decide how likely it is that Jorbles is scum. You need to be conditioning your probabilities on the fact that a 2 was played. This probably requires more complex analysis tools than I'm comfortable with. In addition, I'm sure it requires knowledge of scum's dice-playing strategy.
So, I'm going to spitball it. Let's say 50% of games have a 2 (or worse) played day1. (which is completely arguable, I'm pulling the number out of thin air)
Well, 28% of all games have town playing a 2, so that leaves 22% of all games where scum plays a 2. If that's remotely accurate, then that would put Jorbles at a 44% chance of being scum.
Now, of course, seeing a situation where it intuitively felt wrong, makes me re-consider the math involved in other situations. This applies also to the situation of 3 players playing 3 or lower also. That's definitely less than 100% of all games. So, the probability that at least one of them is scum is reduced accordingly. Of course, that reduction is extended over all 3 players there, which makes it a reduced effect...but it's still present.
Anyways, even 44% chance is high. But, well, 50% was a random number. Maybe if someone actually knew everything going into it, and computed it out, it's like a 36% chance (the chance that some player rolled 2 or less as their max). Probability is a finicky thing. And we have not been striving for accuracy. I've tried to state multiple times, the assumptions and roughness of these computations.
The question that really merits answering is: what are the chances that scum would choose to play a 2? Once you finish that WIFOM, then you can decide how much Jorbles deserves a vote purely for that.
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I have a theory on what the effect of defeating the troll may have. It would pertinent in Town's direction towards a D1 lynch. It could also be rather helpful towards Mafia's agenda.
Is it a good idea for me to discuss this or just keep it to myself and say "I knew it" or "doh" later?
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Yes, alright, on second thought the 70% argument isn't really a good one. I would still think that scum coordinated their rolls N0. They might say something like: "Okay, scum A and scum B play their highest number to appear townie, while scum C stores their highest number and plays the second highest to give a boost to the mafia." So I still believe it's likely that scum rolled a rather low number.
Above that, our rolls are the only hard facts we have to base our votes on. Which is still more than you normally have D1. And the rolls for me lead to the following reads:
town:
ashersky
slight town:
xeiron, everyone who rolled a 6
slight scum:
Voltaire, Walrus, Jorbles, theorel
null:
everyone else
Now to answer theorel's question "what are the chances that scum would choose to play a 2?", I think there are three possible scenarios where scum might do that:
A) they only rolled one die, it was a 2.
B) they rolled 3+ dice, 2 was the second-highest roll.
C) they rolled 3+ dice, 2 was the highest roll.
I don't want to go into calculations again, but I think these three cases together make it reasonably likely that scum would play a 2. But alright, I'm no longer absolutely sold on lynching Jorbles.
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@faust: ultimately I agree with you on the point that probably 1 scum played a low roll. I'm just not convinced at all that it's Jorbles.
IMO scum rolled 3 dice, because, hey, why not try to get a PR?
So, to me it seems like the following:
A) They rolled 3+ dice, and their highest below-4 result was a 2.
This is why I find Voltaire and Walrus as scummy as Jorbles. Because I think scum was slightly more likely to play a 3 than a 2. But town was less likely to play a 2 than a 3.
OTOH all scum could have played their "second-highest" result or something, in order to sabotage less obviously.
One thing to keep in mind is that we didn't know we were fighting a troll as of night 0...so scum needed to be fairly vague in what they were doing, probably keeping it to "helpful", "less helpful", and "harmful".
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Okay, anyways...re-read results for me, only low-rollers: (from scummiest to towniest)
Voltaire:
His first post is basically: we should discuss theory, because I'm lost!
His second post is: I made a mistake in my roll!
These are separated by all of an hour and a half. During that time I posted the theory posts.
And then, lo and behold, he gets a 3. (keep in mind, that even if he rolled only 2 dice, he still had a 3/4 chance of getting over a 3). I REALLY don't like his pre-excusing of his roll.
Other than that, he seems less pro-active and pro-town than the last game I played with him. He hasn't convinced me he's town (which he did there after I found him scummy).
I don't buy the scumslip argument at all, in particular I thought there were 3 scum, couldn't find it in the opening post, thought about it for a bit and decided that there were probably 3 scum (maybe 4). So, I don't find him scummy for that at all.
No one has expressed a town-read on him, which is itself a bit suspicious (usually some scum would be going for town-cred there by opposing a town lynch).
So, I'm still happy with my Voltaire vote.
Walrus:
Early on he notes that he really doesn't understand what's going on, and thinks theory discussion will help. Asks for some specific direction (how many dice should I roll, should I roll now?) Then he ROLLS! Seriously, people! If you're town, you don't ask for help, and then go ahead anyways without help!
And he rolls (dun, dun dun) a 3! This is either self-fulfilling bad-at-theory prophecy or it's intentional to set up the "well, I didn't really know what was best when I rolled".
He turns lurky then...but meh, sometimes people lurk. What's more interesting is what he does say.
He pseudo-defends Voltaire (even using his wagon for scum-hunting), and then votes Jorbles for his "go ahead and lynch me" attitude. He's posted some other reads also.
Jorbles
He wanted to do theory talk, and contributed positively (first to note that an over-6 result would benefit town lots here due to squaring). Suggests that theory-talk can help keep scum from claiming they didn't understand something (i.e. from doing what Voltaire did).
He's the only one that waited until after my general theory post to roll, and then got a 2. Doesn't try to excuse it, just says "I understand if you want to lynch me".
Now the defeatist attitude is a little scummy...because a defeatist attitude is a bit of a survivalist-tell. (i.e. it's an appeal to emotion). But it's not super-effective at f.ds, usually it just gets you lynched. He's expressed his reasons behind it (i.e. punishing the lowest roll keeps scum from being the lowest roll), which makes it a bit more like ash's "self-vote/sacrifice myself for town attitude" from my perspective.
He did have the lowest result, and a 2 is less likely to come from town than a 3. I think (though it is not guaranteed by any means) that a 3 is a more likely result to come from scum. He played his 2 just after Voltaire's 3. When he played it we went from needing around a 22 average to over a 25 average.
If he'd played a 4 (say) we'd have been exactly on point (i.e. needing a 24 average).
He's also attacked Voltaire for combination of low roll and seeming like his scum-meta (from Dr Who). No one as far as I can tell has refuted that argument.
Jorbles going voltaire while both walrus and voltaire attack jorbles, makes Jorbles appear townier to me...although a scum-Walrus would have had his choice which to pursue, since they were voting each other. So, I think that's an invalid feeling, and I should not let it bias me.
----
So mostly, I really don't like Voltaire AND Walrus talking about wanting input on what to do, and then pushing ahead anyways without any input. It strikes me as false. They wanted town to talk about how to use dice well, but they didn't want that advice to come to bear on their own rolls. Both said they wanted the conversation as a response to ash saying he didn't want it and wanted people to just roll. But then went ahead and just rolled, with Voltaire deciding that ash' advice was scummy to boot.
I wouldn't be so surprised if both were scum, honestly. Except that it seems relatively unlikely that town would have gotten so lucky. (though more likely than us getting unlucky enough for all 3 to be town).
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I am in favor of lynching a low roller.
Here are some advantages with such a lynch. some or all of these have already been mentioned, but I put them here for the sake of completeness.
1. Low rollers may be mafia who stored their highest die, and played low one.
2. Low rollers may be mafia who have rolled only one die, in order to keep their supply high.
3. They may have been unlucky, and only gotten low rolls. If so, that's a null-tell, as mafia and town player has the same chance of rolling low.
4. If they are Mafia, chances are they have good die stored, making them them the most important mafia player to get rid of.
5. If they are Town, chances are they do not have good die stored, making them them a less bad mis-lynch.
6. Lynching low rollers encourage scum to help fight future monsters.
I have not yet decided who to vote for.
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unvote
I still think Jorbles has a higher-than-most chance of being scum, but I want to look at his wagon closer. I do know that I, as "caught" scum, tend to roll over and die, attempting the WIFOM of "scum would totally fight more!" so Jorbles could still be doing that if he is like me. On the other hand, that's a lot of assumptions.
Theorel also made an interesting point about EFHW so I want to go re-read her.
I wasn't following very closely over the weekend so I have a bit to catch up on.
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Of the three low rollers, I don't like lynching Jorbles, could get behind Voltaire or Walrus. Also, like my Archetype vote still.
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I have a theory on what the effect of defeating the troll may have. It would pertinent in Town's direction towards a D1 lynch. It could also be rather helpful towards Mafia's agenda.
Is it a good idea for me to discuss this or just keep it to myself and say "I knew it" or "doh" later?
I would say only speak up if what you think you know would make whoever we land on for D1 a horrible choice for some reason. Scum needs to use another PR at this point to weaken our position, so I think we can assume we're going to win this one.
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I am in favor of lynching a low roller.
Here are some advantages with such a lynch. some or all of these have already been mentioned, but I put them here for the sake of completeness.
1. Low rollers may be mafia who stored their highest die, and played low one.
2. Low rollers may be mafia who have rolled only one die, in order to keep their supply high.
3. They may have been unlucky, and only gotten low rolls. If so, that's a null-tell, as mafia and town player has the same chance of rolling low.
4. If they are Mafia, chances are they have good die stored, making them them the most important mafia player to get rid of.
5. If they are Town, chances are they do not have good die stored, making them them a less bad mis-lynch.
6. Lynching low rollers encourage scum to help fight future monsters.
I have not yet decided who to vote for.
This sums it up pretty nicely, I think.
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We usually don't have any tangible information day 1 - we have post counts / imaginary content counts, but they aren't perfect as it's not very hard for scum to talk up a storm and quantifying the latter is always subjective.
Here, we have the rolls. A bigger number played is just strictly better for town. So, I agree we should use this metric, and concentrate on the lower rollers, at least for day 1.
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I knew as soon as I got the low roll that I would come under scrutiny today.
Walrus:
Early on he notes that he really doesn't understand what's going on, and thinks theory discussion will help. Asks for some specific direction (how many dice should I roll, should I roll now?) Then he ROLLS! Seriously, people! If you're town, you don't ask for help, and then go ahead anyways without help!
And he rolls (dun, dun dun) a 3! This is either self-fulfilling bad-at-theory prophecy or it's intentional to set up the "well, I didn't really know what was best when I rolled".
He turns lurky then...but meh, sometimes people lurk. What's more interesting is what he does say.
He pseudo-defends Voltaire (even using his wagon for scum-hunting), and then votes Jorbles for his "go ahead and lynch me" attitude. He's posted some other reads also.
If I may speak a bit to my defense. Here's a rough stream-of-consciousness rendition of my general thought process this game.
"Oh boy! My second game of Mafia! But this time with even more madness! This will be ever so much fun! I can't wait to jump right in and join the action!"
"Uh, wait a second, there's lots of rules and bylaws that I don't quite understand yet. It looks like people are talking about strategy. That sounds good to me; I don't really know what I'm doing and I'd rather not act unwisely to the benefit of scum."
"Oh now wait, it looks like we're saying we shouldn't talk about strategy, because then the scum will know what they're expected to roll, etc."
"Aw jeez people are rolling already! You know what? Probably the best thing I can do right now is just put my best foot forward and roll as high as I can. The basic strategy seems simple enough, and I don't want to be lingering towards the end--that seems like something scum might do to collect information and sabotage the effort. So let's do it!"
"Aw jeez. My roll sucks. I guess I'll make the most of it."
"And now people are discussing strategy at length again! Make up your mind will ya. At least I feel comfortable talking about the math, even if I'm still pretty noobish at the core gameplay of Mafia."
So that's pretty much how I've been feeling this game.
It is plausible that the scum team might want to put forward a "sacrificial lamb" for low rolling, as others have suggested. But I don't think that role would be delegated to me even if I were scum. I don't have the experience to pull it off convincingly.
And of course I recognize the semi-irony of voting for a low-roller myself. Well, I don't think Jorbles' or Voltaire's reaction has been as genuine as mine, which I've tried to detail here. And to be honest, I don't really have any better ideas right now. One might think that if I were trying to draw attention from myself I'd be diverting from the low roll issue.
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Walrus' post seems scummy to me. It's all "I would do this and that if I were scum, and hey, I'm not doing it!" If you are town, why did you think so much about what you would do if you were scum?
Vote: Walrus
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Walrus' post seems scummy to me. It's all "I would do this and that if I were scum, and hey, I'm not doing it!" If you are town, why did you think so much about what you would do if you were scum?
Vote: Walrus
Fair enough. I thought it were best to respond to theorel's criticisms and at least put my thoughts out there. I could have just lurked honestly.
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No, lurking is never better...don't take single criticism/votes to heart.
It's true your stated reasoning considered a lot of what scum would do. I wonder if this is a valid scum-tell? Seems like scum would be mostly thinking about what town would do.
OTOH, this statement:
"The basic strategy seems simple enough, and I don't want to be lingering towards the end--that seems like something scum might do to collect information and sabotage the effort. So let's do it!"
Seems suspect. If scum wants to be lingering towards the end, then you should be trying to sabotage them...not worrying about if you'll look like them. In particular by rolling immediately, you were allowing scum to do precisely what you thought scum would want to do. At the least you should recognize that it's bad play.
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Okay, here's something that I think will help people form opinions of me. I am going to claim. Bear in mind that roles were assigned randomly regardless of alignment so the nature of my role says nothing about my alignment, only how I used it does.
I am a Trainer. My power allows me to do 2 things, once per day I can give someone the chance to roll again (I can only do it if they've already rolled once). Whatever they roll is added to the total. I did this and I chose ashersky (my biggest town read, at the time, and even more so now). I am the reason ashersky got to roll more dice.
I can also determine how many dice someone rolled. I know that ashersky rolled 3 dice, an amount that I find towny.
Would I do this as scum to save myself? Maybe, you shouldn't rule it out.
I do believe we should lynch one of the low rollers, but I think we should lynch Voltaire, not me. (Walrus's recent defense looks weird stylistically, but I don't know enough about him to get a read based on that, he's still pretty null to me.)
PPE: Has anyone else noticed that new(ish) players often think like scum, in that they'll do things to appear towny? That's what I think about theorel's comment on Walrus's defense above.
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Unless someone else wants to claim they are the reason Ash got a second roll, I think we should give Jorbles enough towncred to eliminate him from the lynch pool today. But, well, I wasn't convinced even before this.
I prefer Archetype or Voltaire now.
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Interesting. But I think this claim is going to hurt us.
Look at it this way: If Jorbles hadn't claimed, scum would have thought that ashersky has the power to roll again himself, and likely killed him. That would have been pretty nice for us, because ash's supply of dice is probably already quite low now.
But okay, I get that it would have been even worse if we lynched you, Jorbles, so I understand that you claimed.
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Yeah, at least make them use their NK on me.
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So, let me get this straight. You wanted to advertise that the Towniest person you know most certainly has a stored die?
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So, let me get this straight. You wanted to advertise that the Towniest person you know most certainly has a stored die?
I guess I didn't think about that. :-[
However, I think that scum players might have suspected that anyways. Most of us have implied that we rolled 3 dice on each roll (with the exception of BoxOfDog).
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unvote. Jorbles is definitely off my lynch list.
I don't really like Walrus's latest megapost, it definitely has a weird feel to it. I think I'll go ahead and vote: Walrus.
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I would like to see Voltaire's response to Jorbles' claim. This looks like some real defense as opposed to the half-hearted material Jorbles was giving earlier.
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Oof. I guess that's what I get for shooting off a post right before work. Just trying to stay active here people.
theorel, I didn't really consider it that way, and I guess it could be considered as bad play. I guess I got swept up in the excitement.
I'm willing to give Jorbles a pass based on this. I'll vote: Voltaire instead for now.
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Oof. I guess that's what I get for shooting off a post right before work. Just trying to stay active here people.
theorel, I didn't really consider it that way, and I guess it could be considered as bad play. I guess I got swept up in the excitement.
I'm willing to give Jorbles a pass based on this. I'll vote: Voltaire instead for now.
I think Jorbles has the right of it. There's a tendency for newer town players to want to not appear suspicious, to the point where they try to NOT act in the way that they think scum might act. This could be a ploy from you, or it could be an error where you didn't properly screen your thoughts, or it could just be the normal new-player tendency. In all, I find the normal new-player tendency more likely.
I remember Morgrim talking about how he was choosing to vote with the majority in order to avoid suspicion/lynch. While it's a suspicious thing TO DO, it isn't a suspicious thing to SAY, because generally scum doesn't come out and say "hey, I'm trying to do what I can to avoid suspicion". However, as a town player your goal should be to find scum, not to avoid suspicion.
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Jorbles' claim should be possible to confirm tomorrow. If we (the town) decide on a person for jorbles to determine number of dice rolled and also to make roll again, it should be pretty hard for him to succsedd with this if he lied about his claim.
This test has the added benefit that if someone else made Ashersky roll, and thus know Jorbles is lying, they don't have to counterclaim knowing Jorbles will be caught tomorrow anyway.
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I would like to see Voltaire's response to Jorbles' claim. This looks like some real defense as opposed to the half-hearted material Jorbles was giving earlier.
Belief! Especially with xeiron's latest point about how provable it is.
I've been finding it difficult to get into this game. I'm still intending to properly catch up today.
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Since Jorbles is not a good lynch today, and I think Voltaire is scumier than Walrus, I will vote: voltaire
Thats L-1.
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Since Jorbles is not a good lynch today, and I think Voltaire is scumier than Walrus, I will vote: voltaire
Thats L-1.
Really? Someone please announce intent to lynch before hammering.
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Ash, why did you skip plan 2?
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I think we need to seriously consider that scum may have played 3 high rolls fwiw.
vote: Walrus.
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With Voltaire off the Jorbles wagon and his wagon at L-1 I am Unvote
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I can still smell scum on Voltaire. If Jorbles was an easy D1 mislynch and then Jorbles pulls out a Role-claim that makes the whole wagon stink then maybe it time to gang up on the newly forming Walrus easy-wagon. I'm nowhere near convinced Voltaire is Town but I don't like how fast he went to L-1, either.
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Updated reads list!
Town-ish:
Jorbles (provable claim, used in pro-town fashion)
xeiron (thinking through theory/strategy)
Eevee (making his point about how we have to punish low rollers somehow)
Walrus (catch-up post reads genuine + attempting meta analysis)
theorel (playing a pro-town game + targeted by scum)
chairs (scum doesn't usually vote with no reason, it draws attention)
faust (asking low rollers to go first, pointed out why Jorbles's claim may not have been smart)
Null:
pps (on re-read I could totally see scum being that brash)
ash (playing how he always plays - I don't see the value in it and sometimes find it anti-town, but it's not an alignment tell)
Archetype (empty posts)
BoxofDog (derpclaiming number of dice and results but also does seem to be faking it in his most recent post, not contributing)
EFHW (blending in, climbing on my wagon for weak reason ("he gave reads but I am going to say they are faked without providing any examples and trust people will just believe it by power of suggestion", theorel's suspicion)
I have no idea why I can't get into this game. I think always being suspected D1 is getting to me, because aside from this game (which is burnout-ish), I feel like I've done a pretty darned good job of being pro-town on D1.
But! Let's try anyway. D1-style.
POST COUNTS
61 theorel
50 ash
34 Voltaire
30 pps
22 faust
21 Eevee
20 chairs
20 EFHW
19 Jorbles
18 xeiron
17 Box
14 Arch
14 Walrus
Ashersky and theorel are off the table for post counts (they post enough they'll reveal themselves as scum if scum on a later day).
Jorbles is off the table because he has a provable claim.
(I am off the table because I am me, though I know this is not true for anyone else)
Unfortunately this does not narrow down the pool very much.
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Actually I might be quite ok with an Eevee lynch. He was the first to point out we should punish low-rollers. unvote I am just not sold on this concept anymore as I think Jorbles is town, I am town, and I can see pro-town actions from Walrus.
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Jorbles' claim should be possible to confirm tomorrow. If we (the town) decide on a person for jorbles to determine number of dice rolled and also to make roll again, it should be pretty hard for him to succsedd with this if he lied about his claim.
This test has the added benefit that if someone else made Ashersky roll, and thus know Jorbles is lying, they don't have to counterclaim knowing Jorbles will be caught tomorrow anyway.
I have no problem with this plan. I would love it if someone counterclaimed me to catch them, but I don't see it happening.
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Jorbles, what made ash your biggest town read?
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Actually I might be quite ok with an Eevee lynch. He was the first to point out we should punish low-rollers. unvote I am just not sold on this concept anymore as I think Jorbles is town, I am town, and I can see pro-town actions from Walrus.
So then your position is that scum did not, in fact, throw a purposeful low roll in, and that Eevee (as scum) is suggesting we lynch low rollers on principle to get an easily justified mislynch on D1?
Interesting. It's not something I'd expect out of Eevee, but maybe if Eevee got the idea during N0 from another member of the scum team it would be possible. Of course, I'm actually not sure I've ever played with scum!Eevee, so I might be showing untoward positive bias here.
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Jorbles, what made ash your biggest town read?
It was tough, I considered picking theorel, but I've played with ash a lot and feel more comfortable trusting my reads on him especially in a D1 situation. Basically his plan for us to flavour claim, while not a big game changer does seem like the sort of low impact plan that ash would come up with and push as town. On top of that the sort of reads he is drawing from other people struck me as how people tend to misread his unusual playstyle as scummy (not from everyone, but I remember this coming from enough people that it seemed pretty typical). So I guess it's just that he is one of the people I've played with more and I feel comfortable reading him. I don't always read him correctly, but when I think he's town he usually is (sometimes I think he's scum when he isn't, but it hasn't happened the other way around yet).
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Actually I might be quite ok with an Eevee lynch. He was the first to point out we should punish low-rollers. unvote I am just not sold on this concept anymore as I think Jorbles is town, I am town, and I can see pro-town actions from Walrus.
So then your position is that scum did not, in fact, throw a purposeful low roll in, and that Eevee (as scum) is suggesting we lynch low rollers on principle to get an easily justified mislynch on D1?
Interesting. It's not something I'd expect out of Eevee, but maybe if Eevee got the idea during N0 from another member of the scum team it would be possible. Of course, I'm actually not sure I've ever played with scum!Eevee, so I might be showing untoward positive bias here.
It's something I'm considering, simply because my current best guess is that the low rollers are more likely all town than containing any scum. This is all about if/then and I am trying to teach my brain to hold conflicting opinions.
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This new version of Voltaire is decidedly more Town.
I have been considering the possibility that Mafia may be the highest rollers if the deciding criteria is roll-value. It seems D1 would be the best day to blend and any negative effects of helping Town are more easily managed than later game.
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Looking at the Voltaire wagon, theorel is the high roller who suddenly rolled lower with no explanation. Easy ploy to say some scum-role forced him to lower his roll. Otherwise, theorel feels pretty Town to me.
Walrus doesn't feel so Town to me but he is the low-roller...
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This new version of Voltaire is decidedly more Town.
I have been considering the possibility that Mafia may be the highest rollers if the deciding criteria is roll-value. It seems D1 would be the best day to blend and any negative effects of helping Town are more easily managed than later game.
But did you notice he didn't start making this effort until my lynch went off the table? I am not convinced that this is a real effort.
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This new version of Voltaire is decidedly more Town.
I have been considering the possibility that Mafia may be the highest rollers if the deciding criteria is roll-value. It seems D1 would be the best day to blend and any negative effects of helping Town are more easily managed than later game.
But did you notice he didn't start making this effort until my lynch went off the table? I am not convinced that this is a real effort.
I noticed. shortly after that move I said:
I can still smell scum on Voltaire. If Jorbles was an easy D1 mislynch and then Jorbles pulls out a Role-claim that makes the whole wagon stink then maybe it time to gang up on the newly forming Walrus easy-wagon. I'm nowhere near convinced Voltaire is Town but I don't like how fast he went to L-1, either.
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Looking at the Voltaire wagon, theorel is the high roller who suddenly rolled lower with no explanation. Easy ploy to say some scum-role forced him to lower his roll. Otherwise, theorel feels pretty Town to me.
Walrus doesn't feel so Town to me but he is the low-roller...
Agreed with most of this. I would be willing to vote Walrus today but I think I definitely want to explore many other options first.
But did you notice he didn't start making this effort until my lynch went off the table? I am not convinced that this is a real effort.
Yes, as town I put myself in a bad situation. I can start trying, and get called out as scum who didn't try until they got pressure (L-1). I have accused people of this many times! It is not a bad accusation to make. Or I could continue to lurk, potentially lurk out of suspicion, but have done nothing to advance town. So I knew this response would happen, and I am preparing to suffer it because 1. it's deserved 2. it's the only action that leads back to me being a pro-town player.
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That Volt went to L-1 is suspicious in and of itself.
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Well, unvote. Ashersky is like 85% Town in my eyes at this point. Jorbles could still be scum, but I don't want to see his PR gone.
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Guys, back from the long weekend. I've caught up, but plan to re-read from my last post and respond as I go. Before I do that, I want to give an opinion on the Jorbles claim.
Clearly, I confirm what happened.
Now, what I really do NOT like is that Jorbles decided to reveal the number of dice I rolled. Here's the thing with that -- he could have said "I also know the number of dice ashersky rolled when I gave him his additional roll, and I can reveal that if needed to confirm my claim" or something to that effect. Instead, he put out there enough information that scum can decide that either I have more in the bank than others, or that I have fewer dice remaining to roll in future days. Both of those pieces of information HURT town a lot, and HELP scum even more.
That was a straight-up scum move. If Jorbles is afraid he's lynched today, he wants to get that information to his scum buddies. He did that.
My only saving grace is, do I have enough banked to get bulletproof? A small amount of WIFOM that may keep scum from killing me tonight, especially since they probably don't see me as a rolling threat moving forward.
Jorbles's use of his role was pro-town, and helped us kill the troll. Jorbles's role itself though, can be either alignment (as mentioned in the opening posts) and could help either team, since he could use it on a teammmate to just roll extra stuff.
But Jorbles's CLAIM was pro-scum.
I do not think Jorbles's claim takes him off the lynch options table for D1.
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Ash, why did you skip plan 2?
It was player-dependent. I had this plan in mind from before, but by the time the game changed, it seems the sign-up list changed. The player was no longer in the game, so the plan didn't work. I can elaborate if you want.
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Ash, why did you skip plan 2?
It was player-dependent. I had this plan in mind from before, but by the time the game changed, it seems the sign-up list changed. The player was no longer in the game, so the plan didn't work. I can elaborate if you want.
No, that's fine I guess.
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Is ashersky always this assertive in games? It seems like he's trying to position himself into something of a "leader" position, with his many plans and such. It all seems reasonable so far...I was thinking something about a flavor-based PR as well, but it seems more likely to me that that would help town than scum, so I'm OK with that plan regardless. The other Mafia game I'm playing has an IC, so maybe I'm not used to this IC-less power vacuum dynamic. In any case I would caution against trusting him too much. Null read for now, and if someone has some comments on ash's behavior in other games I would appreciate that. His contention with BoxOfDog also has no real significance to me, as I do not know Box's typical gameplay style.
Specifically to this -- I would say yes, I'm an assertive player. If you go back and read any recent games, you would see this. Not saying you should do homework, but if you are realy interested, I have so much previous game activity here, it's impossible to hide.
I would argue with your IC comment though. I've made no claims to IC status, nor have I played that way.
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On second thought, unvote and Vote: chairs. I think his vote on Voltaire is fishy. I was distracted at first by his agreeing with me. Dang it!
This is the post where he votes. He pairs Voltaire and Jorbles together as if one is scum the other isn't, following a quote from Eevee and Jorbles.
And he finds Voltaire scummy despite having found him towny just 15 posts earlier.
.... slight town on EFHW/Volt/ashersky (EFHW for trying to weed out potential bad advice, volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing, and ashersky because he was concerned theorel was wrong - even though really ash was wrong, ensuring we were all on the same page was and is important when we look at how to best combat these monsters!). ....
...I totally thought that Eevee post was Volt. That absolutely makes a difference in my opinion. I should quit reading things on my phone!
unvote.
Did no one discuss this quick backtrack after being called out?
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Is ashersky always this assertive in games? It seems like he's trying to position himself into something of a "leader" position, with his many plans and such. It all seems reasonable so far...I was thinking something about a flavor-based PR as well, but it seems more likely to me that that would help town than scum, so I'm OK with that plan regardless. The other Mafia game I'm playing has an IC, so maybe I'm not used to this IC-less power vacuum dynamic. In any case I would caution against trusting him too much. Null read for now, and if someone has some comments on ash's behavior in other games I would appreciate that. His contention with BoxOfDog also has no real significance to me, as I do not know Box's typical gameplay style.
Specifically to this -- I would say yes, I'm an assertive player. If you go back and read any recent games, you would see this. Not saying you should do homework, but if you are realy interested, I have so much previous game activity here, it's impossible to hide.
I would argue with your IC comment though. I've made no claims to IC status, nor have I played that way.
I didn't mean to compare you to an IC. I just meant to say, in the other game there is an IC, which means that he sort of naturally assumed a leadership role. Here, there is no such figure, and the game dynamics consequently feel quite a bit different to me.
And yes, I bet I'd be rather better at this game if I did my homework :P
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Well, unvote. Ashersky is like 85% Town in my eyes at this point. Jorbles could still be scum, but I don't want to see his PR gone.
Why do you think ashersky is town?
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Guys, back from the long weekend. I've caught up, but plan to re-read from my last post and respond as I go. Before I do that, I want to give an opinion on the Jorbles claim.
Clearly, I confirm what happened.
Now, what I really do NOT like is that Jorbles decided to reveal the number of dice I rolled. Here's the thing with that -- he could have said "I also know the number of dice ashersky rolled when I gave him his additional roll, and I can reveal that if needed to confirm my claim" or something to that effect. Instead, he put out there enough information that scum can decide that either I have more in the bank than others, or that I have fewer dice remaining to roll in future days. Both of those pieces of information HURT town a lot, and HELP scum even more.
That was a straight-up scum move. If Jorbles is afraid he's lynched today, he wants to get that information to his scum buddies. He did that.
My only saving grace is, do I have enough banked to get bulletproof? A small amount of WIFOM that may keep scum from killing me tonight, especially since they probably don't see me as a rolling threat moving forward.
Jorbles's use of his role was pro-town, and helped us kill the troll. Jorbles's role itself though, can be either alignment (as mentioned in the opening posts) and could help either team, since he could use it on a teammmate to just roll extra stuff.
But Jorbles's CLAIM was pro-scum.
I do not think Jorbles's claim takes him off the lynch options table for D1.
I suspect Jorbles was likely over-eager town, rather than scum, in his claim of your dice. Was it a mistake? Perhaps. But we all make mistakes in our eagerness to help catch out scum.
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Guys, back from the long weekend. I've caught up, but plan to re-read from my last post and respond as I go. Before I do that, I want to give an opinion on the Jorbles claim.
Clearly, I confirm what happened.
Now, what I really do NOT like is that Jorbles decided to reveal the number of dice I rolled. Here's the thing with that -- he could have said "I also know the number of dice ashersky rolled when I gave him his additional roll, and I can reveal that if needed to confirm my claim" or something to that effect. Instead, he put out there enough information that scum can decide that either I have more in the bank than others, or that I have fewer dice remaining to roll in future days. Both of those pieces of information HURT town a lot, and HELP scum even more.
That was a straight-up scum move. If Jorbles is afraid he's lynched today, he wants to get that information to his scum buddies. He did that.
My only saving grace is, do I have enough banked to get bulletproof? A small amount of WIFOM that may keep scum from killing me tonight, especially since they probably don't see me as a rolling threat moving forward.
Jorbles's use of his role was pro-town, and helped us kill the troll. Jorbles's role itself though, can be either alignment (as mentioned in the opening posts) and could help either team, since he could use it on a teammmate to just roll extra stuff.
But Jorbles's CLAIM was pro-scum.
I do not think Jorbles's claim takes him off the lynch options table for D1.
I suspect Jorbles was likely over-eager town, rather than scum, in his claim of your dice. Was it a mistake? Perhaps. But we all make mistakes in our eagerness to help catch out scum.
How was revealing the number of dice I rolled helping "catch out scum?"
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Guys, back from the long weekend. I've caught up, but plan to re-read from my last post and respond as I go. Before I do that, I want to give an opinion on the Jorbles claim.
Clearly, I confirm what happened.
Now, what I really do NOT like is that Jorbles decided to reveal the number of dice I rolled. Here's the thing with that -- he could have said "I also know the number of dice ashersky rolled when I gave him his additional roll, and I can reveal that if needed to confirm my claim" or something to that effect. Instead, he put out there enough information that scum can decide that either I have more in the bank than others, or that I have fewer dice remaining to roll in future days. Both of those pieces of information HURT town a lot, and HELP scum even more.
That was a straight-up scum move. If Jorbles is afraid he's lynched today, he wants to get that information to his scum buddies. He did that.
My only saving grace is, do I have enough banked to get bulletproof? A small amount of WIFOM that may keep scum from killing me tonight, especially since they probably don't see me as a rolling threat moving forward.
Jorbles's use of his role was pro-town, and helped us kill the troll. Jorbles's role itself though, can be either alignment (as mentioned in the opening posts) and could help either team, since he could use it on a teammmate to just roll extra stuff.
But Jorbles's CLAIM was pro-scum.
I do not think Jorbles's claim takes him off the lynch options table for D1.
I suspect Jorbles was likely over-eager town, rather than scum, in his claim of your dice. Was it a mistake? Perhaps. But we all make mistakes in our eagerness to help catch out scum.
How was revealing the number of dice I rolled helping "catch out scum?"
It's not, it's the mistake that was made in that effort.
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Wooo!
Big townpoints to ashersky for that. It could be a gambit, but I think scum!ashersky would've waited for xeiron to roll before using his power to seem more like a hero.
I think had I waited for Xeiron, it could have allowed him to throw the fight more easily. Without my second roll, X was hopeless, right? He could have argued against rolling at all, or just used his lowest roll instead of highest.
I think waiting for xeiron would have been enabling scum!xeiron to get away with something. Not knowing xeiron's alignment, it was better to put him in a position where he absolutely COULD beat the Troll, so that he had to face consequences of not at least trying.
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town points for xeiron!
Not really. All he did was follow theorel's orders. Having him go last gives a wrongly percieved vision of him being a hero if he lands the killng hit, and as a villain if he failed to do it. So no. Him playing a 5 doesn't really prove to me anything about his alignment.
And in the end, you come down where I did.
Xeiron had to make a decision (if scum) to win or lose the battle against the Troll for us. I was able to force that on him, which was good for us. If he's scum, I don't think he chooses to lose against the Troll if he had the option of winning.
All that to say, no bonus town points for X's 5.
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Jorbles' claim should be possible to confirm tomorrow. If we (the town) decide on a person for jorbles to determine number of dice rolled and also to make roll again, it should be pretty hard for him to succsedd with this if he lied about his claim.
This test has the added benefit that if someone else made Ashersky roll, and thus know Jorbles is lying, they don't have to counterclaim knowing Jorbles will be caught tomorrow anyway.
Given I think it was bad news bears to reveal how many dice I rolled, why would we want him to do it again on D2 to someone else?
Also, if Jorbles is scum, he could just coordinate the D2 reveal with a partner to ensure his number is confirmed.
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Jorbles' claim should be possible to confirm tomorrow. If we (the town) decide on a person for jorbles to determine number of dice rolled and also to make roll again, it should be pretty hard for him to succsedd with this if he lied about his claim.
This test has the added benefit that if someone else made Ashersky roll, and thus know Jorbles is lying, they don't have to counterclaim knowing Jorbles will be caught tomorrow anyway.
Given I think it was bad news bears to reveal how many dice I rolled, why would we want him to do it again on D2 to someone else?
Also, if Jorbles is scum, he could just coordinate the D2 reveal with a partner to ensure his number is confirmed.
Not if who I do it with is town directed. Then it would only happen if the town picks a scum player.
And again, I'm sorry I revealed the number of dice you rolled, it was a mistake. I shouldn't have, but it already happened at this point.
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Jorbles' claim should be possible to confirm tomorrow. If we (the town) decide on a person for jorbles to determine number of dice rolled and also to make roll again, it should be pretty hard for him to succsedd with this if he lied about his claim.
This test has the added benefit that if someone else made Ashersky roll, and thus know Jorbles is lying, they don't have to counterclaim knowing Jorbles will be caught tomorrow anyway.
Given I think it was bad news bears to reveal how many dice I rolled, why would we want him to do it again on D2 to someone else?
Also, if Jorbles is scum, he could just coordinate the D2 reveal with a partner to ensure his number is confirmed.
Not if who I do it with is town directed. Then it would only happen if the town picks a scum player.
And again, I'm sorry I revealed the number of dice you rolled, it was a mistake. I shouldn't have, but it already happened at this point.
Oh right, good point on the town direction. So yes, this plan works most of the time.
You can be sorry, but it's still a scummy move. Whether it was a scummy mistake by town or a scum move by mafia is undetermined. Clearly I'm more miffed than others, given it was me being thrown to the wolves.
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Vote Count 1.7
Voltaire (5): theorel, Jorbles, BoxOfDog, WalrusMcFishSr, xeiron (L-2)
Archetype (2): EFHW, Eevee
WalrusMcFishSr (1): faust
not voting (5): ashersky, chairs, pingpongsam, Archetype, Voltaire
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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I don't see the argument Volt is suggesting regarding a possible scum Eevee as holding a ton of water, after thinking about it a while. However, the fact that he threw it out there instead of arguing that walrus should be lynched seems fairly Towny to me, since Walrus has a much easier case to be made against him (trying to seem town more than hunt scum, and low post count relative to others - albeit somewhat mollified in that he's attempting to make long posts, mostly).
Volt looks more Towny from this exchange and I'm leaning towards a vote: walrus (for the reasons mentioned).
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For general reference.
Final Roll Count/Timeline:
pps: 5
ash: 5 + 4
theo: 6 5
walrus: 3
Box: 6
Arch: 6
volt: 3
Jorbles: 2
faust: 6
Eevee: 5
chairs: 5
<theo rerolls>
efhw: 4
<ash plays second die>
xeiron: 5
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For general reference.
Final Roll Count/Timeline:
pps: 5
ash: 5 + 4
theo: 6 5
walrus: 3
Box: 6
Arch: 6
volt: 3
Jorbles: 2
faust: 6
Eevee: 5
chairs: 5
<theo rerolls>
efhw: 4
<ash plays second die>
xeiron: 5
I think the when people voted is more important than the what. I'm just not sure how to explain it.
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Interesting items:
-Only efhw contributed a 4. Ash contributed a 4 as his second roll.
-I was first player to contribute a 6, and had to reroll. I think scum's targeting choice could have been that simple.
-When I rerolled, I altered town's win-possibilities from: 4/6 OR 5/5 (or better) to 5/6 or better...If I'd taken, say, a 4 it would have gone down to 6/6 (or better) and a 3 would have been unwinnable. efhw's play after mine "sealed the deal" until Jorbles' PR-use/ash's play.
Given that scum made me reroll my die (rather than say, rerolling one of their own) suggests to me that scum wanted us to lose this fight. Jorbles using his power after we had essentially lost really suggests to me that he's town. Now, that's obviously tilted by my knowledge that my reroll was scum-caused (unless some townie made a ridiculous error).
Okay, some other stuff: What's the probability that town alone contributed all the 6's (assuming 3 dice rolled)? We got 4 6's out of 10 players: That's around a 67% chance. I don't think scum is required to make that feasible (adding in scum makes it an 87% probability i.e. that's the chance that it could even occur...so should be like a 20% probability that scum played at least one 6).
So, that means that we are statistically less likely to find scum among the 6-rollers than choosing at random.
(this of course only works for 6's because someone couldn't play a 6 if they didn't roll one, and I'm assuming town did play a 6 if they did roll one).
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Okay, some other stuff: What's the probability that town alone contributed all the 6's (assuming 3 dice rolled)? We got 4 6's out of 10 players: That's around a 67% chance. I don't think scum is required to make that feasible (adding in scum makes it an 87% probability i.e. that's the chance that it could even occur...so should be like a 20% probability that scum played at least one 6).
This is wrong...It should be a 23% chance that scum played at least 1 six. (I should be normalizing to make it a 100% chance that we rolled at least 4 sixes, given that we did). That means that there's a 77% chance that town contributed all the 6's, and a 23% chance that scum contributed at least 1.
The chances of finding scum among six-rollers is thus equivalent to the probability of finding them at random among the town.
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In other news, Voltaire is sounding townier now. I'll need to re-evaluate my scum-read on him.
It would probably be beneficial to review the remainder of town. In particular, I'm no longer so confident ash is town (given that his roll came from Jorbles). I mean, he's not a scum-read at this point or anything. I do find it interesting that he played the lowest value that I suggested should be played previous to xeiron rolling. These things can happen, but xeiron had a choice: make town win the fight, OR come under heavy suspicion for losing it.
ashersky had a similar choice, except he had to play something (or be caught out by Jorbles). I think a 4 is exactly the number that I would expect scum-ash to play, all else being equal.
So, I don't give any town-cred to ashersky for his add-on. Which puts him back to around null for me, especially given that he hasn't self-voted.
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Oh, one more thing @ash: what do you mean about when they played their number? Do you mean like, what day/time? Or do you mean what order? Just to clarify the numbers listed there are in order, that's why I called it a count/timeline.
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Oh, one more thing @ash: what do you mean about when they played their number? Do you mean like, what day/time? Or do you mean what order? Just to clarify the numbers listed there are in order, that's why I called it a count/timeline.
I do mean order. Like, waiting to roll seems much scummier than not.
In other news, Voltaire is sounding townier now. I'll need to re-evaluate my scum-read on him.
It would probably be beneficial to review the remainder of town. In particular, I'm no longer so confident ash is town (given that his roll came from Jorbles). I mean, he's not a scum-read at this point or anything. I do find it interesting that he played the lowest value that I suggested should be played previous to xeiron rolling. These things can happen, but xeiron had a choice: make town win the fight, OR come under heavy suspicion for losing it.
ashersky had a similar choice, except he had to play something (or be caught out by Jorbles). I think a 4 is exactly the number that I would expect scum-ash to play, all else being equal.
So, I don't give any town-cred to ashersky for his add-on. Which puts him back to around null for me, especially given that he hasn't self-voted.
As for the 4, I played my highest roll. I could have played lower, right? Unless you think I rolled 4, 6, 6, which seems much harder to do.
If you think I could have chosen a middle roll and stored a higher one, well sure. But that's not a strong argument to make.
What's not to say you didn't bank a 6 when you played your second 5? It's all conjecture, and not useful.
You don't need to find me towny for playing the second roll, but to make it seem like I ensured I rolled the lowest helpful number on purpose for towncred is a stretch.
As for not self-voting -- are you serious? Like, you won't consider me town unless I do it?
Theo is coming off as super scummy as usual (ie., flipping reads often, both on people and actions, not taking a stance firm enough to be pinned on you, hiding behind math), which tracks with his town meta. (Note: were you in the game where Voltgloss and I really attacked each other and both ended up beign town and you were the scum manipulating everything? Or was that eHal? I confuse you two all the time.)
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I'll do a quick reads post. I don't do scores like theo.
1. pingpongsam -- first game in forever. Like, since before my first game ever. So basically, no meta to work off of, although I think he's the kickball guy, so he's got that in his favor. I'm inclined to give him a day 1 pass for being so old. He's basically taken the middle road on everything, which I would define as "against whatever 3 or more people say/decide/think." That's safe scum play, or tempered town play. Overall null, not lynching d1.
2. Eevee -- typical D1 Eevee. Townish lurking, some buddying, living up to his meta to a T. Not lynching D1.
3. Archetype -- typical D1 Archetype. Useful stuff when he posts, which really isn't often enough for what I think he brings to the table. I've seem scumetype before, in fact I think we've been partners (Chicken Mafia?). He's generally unlikely to offer firm takes on anything whatsoever as scum. Nullish town here. Rather not lynch D1.
4. Jorbles -- towny action with his claimed PR. Terribad scummy way of claiming, including giving away way too much information. Lowest roll counts against him for many, although I'm still not sure how we can be sure he rolled anything higher. Still, overall tilts toward the scummish side. Would lynch.
5. WalrusMcFishSr -- only his second game, have modded him before. Slightly different, although not greatly so. All his posts come off as scum excuses, for some reasons. "Sorry I wasn't around...sorry I'm new...sorry I said that..." Hard to say if that's what he'd really do as scum, but newbies are prone to errors like that. Would lynch.
6. chairs -- not memorable so far, although on re-read he did say some sensible bits. As far as interaction/investment in the game so far, I'd put him in the pps category. Chairs is a guy I feel is easier to read the more he posts (which sounds stupid, since that applies to everyone, but you know what I mean), so I'd be inclined to not lynch on D1.
8. theorel -- as mentioned previously, super scummy self. Note, I believe this is an opinion actually shared only by me. Theo is a bit know-it-all-ish and bossy (self-admitted) in his posts (although probably not in person) and he's prone to never committing to anything, leaving himself wiggle room in any argument. He'll also flip between folks and say something is towny one minute and scummy the next. He does do all this while town, and I'm thinking I've only seen him scum once. Theo is useful to town either way, as he usually doesn't sabotage, since that's something he can be caught doing. Worth keeping around, not lynching on D1.
9. Voltaire -- we never, ever, ever get along in games, so who knows. The way the wagon built on him so quickly was odd, so early in the game. Again, I'm not much for holding low rolls against people. Eh, would lynch D1.
10. BoxOfDog -- as seen, I think he plays up the emotion too much. He's been nonexistent since then, so it's hard to say I have any read at all. Would lynch D1.
11. xeiron -- Null, would lynch. Literally nothing there for me, and I'm not sure why. Like, I know I responded to things he's said and done. I think waiting to go last on the rolls is something worth holding against him.
12. faust -- Faust has been actively scummy, which is different from the rest of the town. I don't know that scum would be actively scummy though. He's had some really odd moments, especially in regards to opinions and votes. A lot of jumping beans action. Would lynch today.
13. EFHW -- Man, I can't read EFHW. One, I always think she's Kooshie, and I hold Masons and Monks against her. She's been fine so far. I guess she's on the no lynch list.
So what's that, 6 out of 12 on the would lynch list? That's not bad.
I'd remind folks that this is D1. No one is going to have great reads, and we'll need wagons and flips to make real analyses. You need to think in terms of "willing to lynch" and "rather not lynch" instead of "definitely town" or "definitely scum."
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Townish:
Eevee (making his point about how we have to punish low rollers somehow)
faust (asking low rollers to go first, pointed out why Jorbles's claim may not have been smart)
Null:
pps (on re-read I could totally see scum being that brash)
The read on me feels fake to me, why couldn't scum point that out? Like, surely they discussed this in their QT.
Same for the read on faust, both the things you list, while true and helpful points, aren't positions scum wouldn't want to take.
Why don't you give PPS the same kind of pass for pointing out protown things? He has contributed his fair share to the theory discussions.
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Actually I might be quite ok with an Eevee lynch. He was the first to point out we should punish low-rollers. unvote I am just not sold on this concept anymore as I think Jorbles is town, I am town, and I can see pro-town actions from Walrus.
.. and I see you address this on the very next post. I don't know how I feel about this. The artificial-looking townread felt scummy to me, because I didn't feel I deserved it so it read as scum wanting to get on my good side. Now I don't know,
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I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
Archetype (empty posts)
I really think you should doublecheck this.
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Guys, back from the long weekend. I've caught up, but plan to re-read from my last post and respond as I go. Before I do that, I want to give an opinion on the Jorbles claim.
Clearly, I confirm what happened.
Now, what I really do NOT like is that Jorbles decided to reveal the number of dice I rolled. Here's the thing with that -- he could have said "I also know the number of dice ashersky rolled when I gave him his additional roll, and I can reveal that if needed to confirm my claim" or something to that effect. Instead, he put out there enough information that scum can decide that either I have more in the bank than others, or that I have fewer dice remaining to roll in future days. Both of those pieces of information HURT town a lot, and HELP scum even more.
That was a straight-up scum move. If Jorbles is afraid he's lynched today, he wants to get that information to his scum buddies. He did that.
My only saving grace is, do I have enough banked to get bulletproof? A small amount of WIFOM that may keep scum from killing me tonight, especially since they probably don't see me as a rolling threat moving forward.
Jorbles's use of his role was pro-town, and helped us kill the troll. Jorbles's role itself though, can be either alignment (as mentioned in the opening posts) and could help either team, since he could use it on a teammmate to just roll extra stuff.
But Jorbles's CLAIM was pro-scum.
I do not think Jorbles's claim takes him off the lynch options table for D1.
I think announcing the number of dice you rolled was likely just a mistake. I think he realized he wouldn't get lynched after that claim (hence the claim), so the narrative you are building for his malicious intent doesn't strike as believable to me.
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I think announcing the number of dice you rolled was likely just a mistake. I think he realized he wouldn't get lynched after that claim (hence the claim), so the narrative you are building for his malicious intent doesn't strike as believable to me.
I just want folks to understand the possibility that it wasn't an innocent mistake. We all know Jorbles is smarter than that. I'm just keeping it in the barrel of stuff about Jorbles to consider.
Remember, if he is scum, he meant to put the information out there to 1) share with his teammates, and 2) try to solidify his claim as honest.
If he is town, he mistakenly put that information out there in a decidedly anti-town move. I'm generally the first to harp that anti-town does NOT equal mafia play. I just want folks to not completely disregard the possibility.
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I find it annoying that I feel like I'll have time the next day, but I never do.. It's absurd.
Lets see if we can get votes from everyone, and if one gets on Voltaire, we'll count down to hammer.
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I interpret it as just an accident. It could be a scum ploy to tip off his scumbuddies, but he could've just told them that night. But then again he may hve been the lynch and didn't want to go down with that info not relayed to the rest of his team.
So I don't know. It could be a scum ploy, but my gut reaction is that he made a mistake. Regardless, I don't think he should be today's lynch.
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I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
Archetype (empty posts)
I'm actually not lurking, at all.
I've been incredibly busy, and every single time I have gotten on the forums, I have posted.
Anything that would qualify as 'lurking' is completely irrelevant to my actions.
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I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
Archetype (empty posts)
I'm actually not lurking, at all.
I've been incredibly busy, and every single time I have gotten on the forums, I have posted.
Anything that would qualify as 'lurking' is completely irrelevant to my actions.
Woops.
"I'm actually not lurking, at all.
I've been incredibly busy, and every single time I have gotten on the forums, I have posted.
Anything that would qualify as 'lurking' is completely irrelevant to my actions."
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Ooooooh my gosh!
This is really.. Really.. Annoying. Alright. Here is what I said:
"I'm actually not lurking, at all.
I've been incredibly busy, and every single time I have gotten on the forums, I have posted.
Anything that would qualify as 'lurking' is completely irrelevant to my actions.""
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ashersky, how can you simultaneously hold rolling last against xeiron and not give him any town cred for rolling high enough to defeat the troll?
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ashersky, how can you simultaneously hold rolling last against xeiron and not give him any town cred for rolling high enough to defeat the troll?
I didn't not give him credit for that, exactly. But, well, if you are scum, and you go last, you have to make a decision, right? Do I ensure town loses against the troll, thereby getting a crapton of suspicion and ill will, or do I ensure a town win, and probably hurt my own team?
I think scum chooses the town win 99 times out of 100 on D1. It isn't worth the lynch. That's why he doesn't get huge amounts of town cred. Some, sure, but not any more than me.
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ashersky, how can you simultaneously hold rolling last against xeiron and not give him any town cred for rolling high enough to defeat the troll?
I didn't not give him credit for that, exactly. But, well, if you are scum, and you go last, you have to make a decision, right? Do I ensure town loses against the troll, thereby getting a crapton of suspicion and ill will, or do I ensure a town win, and probably hurt my own team?
I think scum chooses the town win 99 times out of 100 on D1. It isn't worth the lynch. That's why he doesn't get huge amounts of town cred. Some, sure, but not any more than me.
If that's what you believe, why is it scummy to roll last?
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And given how you don't suspect the low-rollers, shouldn't scum just play a low number in Xeiron's shoes?
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And given how you don't suspect the low-rollers, shouldn't scum just play a low number in Xeiron's shoes?
I'm giving all these reads post rolls for a reason.
And just because I don't suspect low rolls especially doesn't mean others don't. Or that scum won't push low rollers as the easy lynch (which is more likely to me).
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I still don't like Voltaire. As soon as I released a bit of the steam on his cooker he got real quite like maybe he just wants his wagon to fall apart. He definitely switched his game up to pro-Town but so would I if I were watching a wagon build on me from the get-go. That said, a sudden L-1 is really suspicious to me and I've been taking a hard look at who facilitated that.
Assuming Voltaire is Town then such a wagon most assuredly has scum on it, no? BoxofDog appears to simply have no clue what he is doing in this game. If he is Mafia then I think he is poor Mafia. Walrus appears to be having similar trouble playing the game. Walrus and xeiron both come off more scum than Town to me but of the two, xeiron actually appears to be Mafia play.
Let me begin with his very first post in the game in which he suggests that we focus on the troll as a first priority. Pray tell, why does he then wait to be the last to roll? He then casually sets up a position on an easily divisible issue in every game; he's says he is pro-theory and then promptly votes ashersky for "pushing town in the wrong" direction when in fact, he is simply talking theory. Oh, and it is notable that this seems an almost knee jerk response to getting a plain old RVS thrown onto him by Faust. Also, note Volt cast the first vote on ashersky. How best to blend than to appear to agree and then at the late moment turn and vote the guy you sheeped? He finds his opportunity to switch ships when ashersky makes arguably the most pro-town move at that point in the game. Now, he's ready to chase a low-roller, but consider that this is already a present theory and a strong basis for the wagon has already begun on Voltaire. I have my suspicions on theorel but I can't fault his play and especially not for being first onto Voltaire. I'm second onto Voltaire and I stayed on it for awhile because it seemed the longer I pressed the more scummy he seemed to be. Jorbles is now arguably Town and the way those two wagons shaped up I feel it is plausible that Volt/Jorbles are both Town. If Jorbles (who also voted Voltaire) is Mafia then his role-play was a superb diversion. Volt's wagon starts to build some steam and then enters xeiron's L-1 vote that screams, "well, the Jorbles/Volt debate has ended let us all move to lynch Volt but don't let me be the hammer".
Vote: xeiron
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Ash is starting to make sense to me. Is that a red flag? I don't know! It's a good thing he's off the table for me today anyway because of his post count. I like him cautioning that Jorbles's move could have been a scum move.
Archetype, I would describe myself as mostly empty posts up until about yesterday as well.
Eevee suggesting I am faking reads, something EFHW said before. Just something I want to remember.
I am having a hard time deciding if I think my wagon has(d) scum on it. The scummiest vote does seem to be xeiron, sending me to L-1 out of nowhere. On the other hand, some people had unvoted and voted and perhaps he was simply being pro-town by pointing out where the wagon was when he cast his vote.
In short, I think we're generating a bunch of great material for re-reads and I don't know what to make of it for today's lynch.
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Oh, one more thing @ash: what do you mean about when they played their number? Do you mean like, what day/time? Or do you mean what order? Just to clarify the numbers listed there are in order, that's why I called it a count/timeline.
I do mean order. Like, waiting to roll seems much scummier than not.
In other news, Voltaire is sounding townier now. I'll need to re-evaluate my scum-read on him.
It would probably be beneficial to review the remainder of town. In particular, I'm no longer so confident ash is town (given that his roll came from Jorbles). I mean, he's not a scum-read at this point or anything. I do find it interesting that he played the lowest value that I suggested should be played previous to xeiron rolling. These things can happen, but xeiron had a choice: make town win the fight, OR come under heavy suspicion for losing it.
ashersky had a similar choice, except he had to play something (or be caught out by Jorbles). I think a 4 is exactly the number that I would expect scum-ash to play, all else being equal.
So, I don't give any town-cred to ashersky for his add-on. Which puts him back to around null for me, especially given that he hasn't self-voted.
As for the 4, I played my highest roll. I could have played lower, right? Unless you think I rolled 4, 6, 6, which seems much harder to do.
If you think I could have chosen a middle roll and stored a higher one, well sure. But that's not a strong argument to make.
What's not to say you didn't bank a 6 when you played your second 5? It's all conjecture, and not useful.
You don't need to find me towny for playing the second roll, but to make it seem like I ensured I rolled the lowest helpful number on purpose for towncred is a stretch.
As for not self-voting -- are you serious? Like, you won't consider me town unless I do it?
Theo is coming off as super scummy as usual (ie., flipping reads often, both on people and actions, not taking a stance firm enough to be pinned on you, hiding behind math), which tracks with his town meta. (Note: were you in the game where Voltgloss and I really attacked each other and both ended up beign town and you were the scum manipulating everything? Or was that eHal? I confuse you two all the time.)
I'm pretty confident that wasn't me. The only game you've played with me as scum is Innovation, I think.
To be clear, I don't find you scummy for your roll. That should be made 100% clear because I did explain why I could see scum playing what you did.
When I initially gave you town-cred I thought that you had chosen to play an extra die. Which is hugely pro-town. But then Jorbles revealed that he had chosen for you to play an extra die. So, there are 2 possibilities: 1. you're town, 2. you're scum. If you're town, you played the highest die you rolled which was a 4. That's totally plausible and that or worse has happened to at least 2 town this game (probably more). So, your play makes sense from town. The question is then: does your play make sense from scum? Well, yes it does. A 4 is really the perfect number for scum to play there. It's low enough not to guarantee we win, and high enough to avoid major suspicion. So, IF you're scum I expect that you would've wanted to play a 4. But, it doesn't make you scum for playing it. I said that I gave no town-cred. Really you should get just a little, because as noted you could have played worse (assuming you rolled worse).
I am totally serious about not self-voting. If you are in fact town, this game will be the first time as town that you haven't self-voted as far as I can tell. Every game where you've been scum you've avoided it, and every game where you're town you've done it. You've pointed it out yourself several times as town (but managed to avoid the discussion every time you're scum). You've completely reversed the meta surrounding self-votes for yourself. Is this possibly the first game where town-ash didn't self-vote? Sure, it's possible, just like how MXXX could have been the first game where scum-ash did self-vote.
Other than the lack of a self-vote, you don't seem terribly scummy. But really, lack of self-vote is such a strong tell from you, that I can't go townier than null. I dunno, was a time where helpful unscummy ash must be scum, because town ash catches way more flak. I think we may be past that point...but still, you're coming across as townie, and from you that puts me a little on edge.
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Voltaire, we usually think of the game quite similarly, see eye to eye on matters. Here, I just find myself wondering continuously.
was it xeirons L-1 vote or announcing it that you found scummy? if you feel it was opportunistic and out of the blue, why would you hedge it by saying "well he did announce it was L-1 which is protown"? Obviously he announces that, everyone always announces L-1 votes. That shouldn't affect your read on the vote at all!
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Voltaire, we usually think of the game quite similarly, see eye to eye on matters. Here, I just find myself wondering continuously.
was it xeirons L-1 vote or announcing it that you found scummy? if you feel it was opportunistic and out of the blue, why would you hedge it by saying "well he did announce it was L-1 which is protown"? Obviously he announces that, everyone always announces L-1 votes. That shouldn't affect your read on the vote at all!
That he cast it after my wagon seemed to have stalled out.
I do not want to vote xeiron today no matter what (pending obvious crazy stuff like a day cop or something).
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@Jorbles: you asked how well my scumhunting "technique" works. I don't really consider the scores a technique, just as a more precise way to express myself than "leaning scum, slightly scum, slightly town, etc". I'm all over the board with accuracy, and I vary how much I do it.
Okay, some quick reads on everyone:
pingpongsam: There are some scum possibilities with him wanting to appear supportive of a Voltaire lynch without having a vote there. There's a bunch more town narratives I think where someone jumps off a wagon at L-1. General pro-town play. scumScore: 12
ashersky: read my post above. scumScore: 20
Voltaire: scum-read is dropping some given his pro-town changes. My debate here is whether it's worth it to see if he keeps it up. I still have trouble getting over his excusing his roll before it came. scumScore: 30
Walrus: Honestly, the biggest thing holding me back is that he's a newer player and I don't want to lynch him. He reads as new-ish town player, not new-ish scum player though. He seems kind of subdued from what I would expect (based on reading him in Resistance and Diplomacy). But I didn't follow MXXXI close enough to know what's normal for mafia. scumScore: 28
Jorbles: I can't see my reroll precursing a roll addition like that purely for town-cred. Yeah, announcing number of dice rolled wasn't great, but still scum doesn't make the play in the first place. scumScore: 5
xeiron: I don't find him scummy at all for waiting. Someone needed to wait, and I even asked him to. He did make us win, which makes him even less scummy for it. I think what I'm missing here is: what is the advantage to scum for waiting? If he'd played earlier, he could have played something lower without catching flak for it. As scum, forcing yourself to either help town or reveal is never a great position. Honestly, I'm thinking that there is 0 advantage to scum in waiting to play. That all said, he hit Voltaire to L-1 a bit earlier than I might have. I would've voted for Walrus in his position to try to draw out more information. But, I don't find him scummy for playing differently. scumScore: 20
Eevee: I don't have a great bead here. He's said stuff. I find it interesting how he keeps talking about punishing low rollers while excusing his vote for archetype. Not sure it's scummy, but it rubs me the wrong way. scumScore: 25
efhw: I was writing this up, and discovered something unusual. See next post...
Archetype: He's barely said anything. I don't necessarily agree with what he has said, but I don't find it to be likely scum-stances. I do wish he'd post more. scumScore: 23
chairs: He seems a little scummy to me. I don't actually remember anything he's said. He's been busy and lurkish I think. Oh, there was that thing that efhw found scummy. Of course, I find her super-scummy. scumScore: 25
BoxofDog: Quiet. I hoped he will find time to post. Lurking doesn't mean reading the thread and not posting in mafia games, it just means not posting. You "exist" in the mafia context, and aren't saying anything, so your presence is "lurking" in the game. As with chairs, minimal memorable stuff (emotional reaction to ashersky). scumScore: 25
faust: Misuse of probability to try to lynch Jorbles who I'm pretty convinced is town. I can see some other people's arguments here, but I would really need to look into him to see if he looked scummy to me. For now, I'm pretty null. scumScore: 23
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efhw:
Voting went from Voltaire to chairs to Archetype. She contributed a 4 when we absolutely had to have a 5 or higher. But, she had already rolled her dice. And supposedly had a 35-post PPE, which included my play. Wait...why would she have a 35-post PPE? I dunno about you guys, but playing my die took all of seconds. It took her 3 hours and 49 minutes to post "Play: 4"??? How does that happen? This shouldn't have been a long thought-out post. I can only think of 2 explanations: 1. she was holding her roll waiting to see what everyone else contributed. 2. She wrote the post and forgot to click post.
...Wait, maybe that's not what she meant. There were 35 posts between her stated "rolling" and revealing the roll. Everyone else started playing their rolls around 1:00 though. Was she waiting for my reroll maybe? That didn't come for a couple hours (2:30). But then she waited another 2 hours to post her roll.
I totally don't get this 35-post PPE thingy. And I'm inclined to find efhw very scummy for playing her roll last of the people that had rolled in the same block of time, AND waiting until I posted my reroll, AND giving a result that guaranteed that we couldn't win without PR intervention, while being over the "3 threshold". I'm gonna vote: efhw scumScore: 45
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Theorel, we all have to wait until Jimmmm posts our die results in our QTs. That was EFHW's first post since she stated she had rolled and was awaiting results. Easy answer: she checked her QT first (a good habit to have when you must post your roll in your first post after you have your results), posted her results as mandated by the rules, and then had a lot of the thread to catch up on. It's a totally null thing for me.
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PPE 35
play: 4
To explain, it's the PPE 35 thing that's bugging me. I mean, also the playing a 4 when we absolutely needed a 5 or better...
She might come in and explain the PPE 35 thing and I'll see it. But PPE=pre-post edit. Meaning she wrote the post, then edited it after 35 posts were posted. 35 posts earlier was:
I have already rolled, no results yet.
same here.
Which means she posted "same here", then hit reply again, then left it sitting for ~4 hours, and finally added the play: 4?
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I am starting to find time to post.
What I'm confused about is why you qualify that as lurking.
'Lurking' as a word means this: "(of a person or animal) be or remain hidden so as to wait in ambush for someone or something."
How in the world does that apply to just existing?
Seriously needs to be redefined.
So now a question on that.. How can simply not being on the threads because of not having time be considered scummy? Seriously.
It easily could be said that I'm being a bit unhelpful, that wasn't my decision either.
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Box, scum tend to lurk more than town because it is difficult to fake being part of town. Because sometimes town lurks as well (due to real-life commitments or having nothing to say), scum can find it advantageous to lurk both intentionally and unintentionally because they'll blend in.
A related concept is "acti-lurking," which means reading the thread but not posting in it. This has also been a scum trait in the past, and usually players will be called out for it if they post in the thread only when they are the topic of conversation.
This is all grossly simplified, but it should give you an explanation of why most players use the words they use in the way they use them.
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Lurking is reading without posting in "internet speak". In Mafia, the dictionary term is a little more appropriate when the lurker is Mafia. This game is about information analysis and control of perception. If you are not posting then you are effectively withholding information and you are allowing another party to control perception. Thus, lurking is looked upon as a profoundly scummy way to play as it in no way helps Town regardless of your alignment.
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Lurking is reading without posting in "internet speak". In Mafia, the dictionary term is a little more appropriate when the lurker is Mafia. This game is about information analysis and control of perception. If you are not posting then you are effectively withholding information and you are allowing another party to control perception. Thus, lurking is looked upon as a profoundly scummy way to play as it in no way helps Town regardless of your alignment.
My point exactly.
And I haven't been doing that. I've posted every single time I have gotten on the forums.
I make sure to read everything that's been going on as quick as I can, then post a reply on my thoughts.
Sometimes my thoughts aren't really that complicated, because either I've been experiencing stress, or I simply am at a loss of words.
I have Church, Boy Scouts, Theater Group, Art School, Show Rehearsals. All in that order, and some of them take up a larger portion of my day than you would think.
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Just be glad I'm not doing Cross-Country. That would be a mess.
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But not posting still hurts town. It doesn't matter why you're doing it. It makes you hard to read, because we can only guess what you're thinking. Scum wants to be hard to read. Also, scum tends to post less than town (based on end-of-game post counts). So, it's scummy, because scum does it.
I doubt you're getting lynched today for it. You might at some point. If you keep playing people will realize that's just how you play. But here and now we have to make a judgement based on very little information. One piece of the puzzle is exactly that: you've given very little information. I stated that I hoped you'd contribute more, because then I can judge based on actual information that we have, rather than just a lack of information.
Defending your lurking isn't helping us find scum. Try to help with that instead.
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Box needing a clarification what "lurking" is seems strange to me. I played with him in NewMafia IV, that game featured some really heavy lurkers, we discussed about this not helping town. In the end, town lost because of it.
Seems to me Box would know exactly what lurking is and why it's hurting town.
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Box needing a clarification what "lurking" is seems strange to me. I played with him in NewMafia IV, that game featured some really heavy lurkers, we discussed about this not helping town. In the end, town lost because of it.
Seems to me Box would know exactly what lurking is and why it's hurting town.
I needed a clarification because people were using it in a context that was unknown to me.
In NMIV I used it as though the person was reading it, but not posting.
But now people are referring to lurking as simply not posting much.
So I needed an explanation on that.
Anyway.
Xeiron seems to be wagon jumping, which seems a slight bit scummy, but he'd have to be saying more to be sure.
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Lurking is reading without posting in "internet speak". In Mafia, the dictionary term is a little more appropriate when the lurker is Mafia. This game is about information analysis and control of perception. If you are not posting then you are effectively withholding information and you are allowing another party to control perception. Thus, lurking is looked upon as a profoundly scummy way to play as it in no way helps Town regardless of your alignment.
My point exactly.
And I haven't been doing that. I've posted every single time I have gotten on the forums.
I make sure to read everything that's been going on as quick as I can, then post a reply on my thoughts.
Sometimes my thoughts aren't really that complicated, because either I've been experiencing stress, or I simply am at a loss of words.
I have Church, Boy Scouts, Theater Group, Art School, Show Rehearsals. All in that order, and some of them take up a larger portion of my day than you would think.
I can sympathize. It still doesn't help town.
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Lurking is reading without posting in "internet speak". In Mafia, the dictionary term is a little more appropriate when the lurker is Mafia. This game is about information analysis and control of perception. If you are not posting then you are effectively withholding information and you are allowing another party to control perception. Thus, lurking is looked upon as a profoundly scummy way to play as it in no way helps Town regardless of your alignment.
My point exactly.
And I haven't been doing that. I've posted every single time I have gotten on the forums.
I make sure to read everything that's been going on as quick as I can, then post a reply on my thoughts.
Sometimes my thoughts aren't really that complicated, because either I've been experiencing stress, or I simply am at a loss of words.
I have Church, Boy Scouts, Theater Group, Art School, Show Rehearsals. All in that order, and some of them take up a larger portion of my day than you would think.
I can sympathize. It still doesn't help town.
I'm aware.
But people are treating it as if I have all the time in the world.. Wrong.
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...as though the person was reading it, but not posting.
But now people are referring to lurking as simply not posting much...
So I needed an explanation on that.
Anyway.
Xeiron seems to be wagon jumping, which seems a slight bit scummy, but he'd have to be saying more to be sure.
See how that works?
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efhw:
Voting went from Voltaire to chairs to Archetype. She contributed a 4 when we absolutely had to have a 5 or higher. But, she had already rolled her dice. And supposedly had a 35-post PPE, which included my play. Wait...why would she have a 35-post PPE? I dunno about you guys, but playing my die took all of seconds. It took her 3 hours and 49 minutes to post "Play: 4"??? How does that happen? This shouldn't have been a long thought-out post. I can only think of 2 explanations: 1. she was holding her roll waiting to see what everyone else contributed. 2. She wrote the post and forgot to click post.
...Wait, maybe that's not what she meant. There were 35 posts between her stated "rolling" and revealing the roll. Everyone else started playing their rolls around 1:00 though. Was she waiting for my reroll maybe? That didn't come for a couple hours (2:30). But then she waited another 2 hours to post her roll.
I totally don't get this 35-post PPE thingy. And I'm inclined to find efhw very scummy for playing her roll last of the people that had rolled in the same block of time, AND waiting until I posted my reroll, AND giving a result that guaranteed that we couldn't win without PR intervention, while being over the "3 threshold". I'm gonna vote: efhw scumScore: 45
Clearly I misused PPE. What I meant was I had just signed on, went to post my roll, saw there were 35 posts since I last signed on, and noted that so everyone would know I was not up to date on what might have happened recently. I did not delay at all, and couldn't have played with timing b/c I wasn't up to date. I don't think I'm the only one who has been using PPE that way. Why include the number otherwise?
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It is becoming clear to me that we really can't tell anything about a player from their roll.
First we suspected low rollers, then someone suggested 6's may be looking for towncred, and now I'm suspected for a middling roll. It's fine to create pressure to post one's highest roll, but I don't think we will get any scum info from it.
re: Jorbles. Was he at L-1? Was claiming necessary at that point? However it is true he did not need to give Ash that roll at all. And actually why would scum ever want to give extra rolls, when losing to the monster is always better for scum? Am I missing something?
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13. EFHW -- Man, I can't read EFHW. One, I always think she's Kooshie, and I hold Masons and Monks against her. She's been fine so far. I guess she's on the no lynch list.
Seriously? I know you often can't read me, but re: the rest, really? I hope you are trying to provoke me, b/c I really thought I would be an individual to you by now, and a lot has happened since M and M.
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RE: EFHW:
A) Yes Jorbles was at L-1 and yes, I personally think his claim was a good move. Revealing the number of dice rolled was bad form but the role-claim was solid.
B) I agree that roll-values are a poor metric. I believe I have related this opinion on a couple of posts.
C) Ash is always looking for the provoked reaction. Nothing in this game is worth taking personally.
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So Jorbles made the same mistake I did, by revealing the amount of dice he rolled?
If so, was that before or after I derped that?
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First of all, I'm going to unvote. I think that Voltaire has been acting much townier as of late, and admittedly my vote for him was a bit reactionary. Which means that the "low roll" case seems to have evaporated. Jorbles has got the (slightly dubious) claim, Voltaire is now being more helpful, and well, I guess that leaves me, but I personally know I'm town. So I guess I'm looking elsewhere. My only concern with this is it would destroy any chance we had about sending a message to scum about low rolling. Right now, the message we're sending is "OK you guys, don't roll low, because then we'll get flustered, but then there won't actually be any consequences." This may be a secondary concern however, and I'm glad we nailed the Troll anyway. Legitimately finding scum would obviously be superior.
I agree with ash when he says there may be information to be gleaned from the timing of rolls. I know that he clarified that it was the order, rather than the chronometry, that was most important, but I went through and looked at the times anyway:
For general reference.
Final Roll Count/Timeline:
pps: 5
9 hours/32 posts later...
ash: 5 + 4
1 hour/4 posts later...
theo: 6 5
1 minute/1 post later...
walrus: 3
1 hour/7 posts later...
Box: 6
1 hour/2 posts later...
Arch: 6
13 hours/54 posts later...
volt: 3
5 minutes/2 posts later...
Jorbles: 2
3 minutes/2 posts later...
faust: 6
3 minutes/2 posts later...
Eevee: 5
11 minutes/7 posts later...
chairs: 5
1 hour/10 posts later...
<theo rerolls>
2 hours/9 posts later...
efhw: 4
29 hours/144 posts later...
<ash plays second die>
3 hours/12 posts later...
xeiron: 5
So it seems like basically, the rolls can be split into an "early bloc" and a "late bloc", with a couple of outliers at the beginning and end (several of which were expected or engineered). I understand that time zones/sleep cycles/mod availability have something to do with this as well, but at least I thought it was interesting information.
My initial thought was the same as ash's, that scum would prefer to lurk around to the end. That was part of the reason why I rolled early (perhaps prematurely), because I panicked and thought that would be the proper thing to do. However there are likely 12000 layers of deception here that are difficult to penetrate. For example, PPS rolled earlier than anybody else by a wide margin. Naively this seems like something scum would not do, to avoid calling attention to themselves. But maybe in actuality it were best for scum to hide in plain sight?
The other thing that immediately comes to mind, besides earliness/lateness of rolls, is how far apart would the scum space their rolls? Again, my naive expectation is that they would spread themselves out a bit, so we might expect to find scum among both the early and late rollers. However, maybe they would clump themselves together just to defy this. It reminds me a bit of Battleship haha--do you spread out your pieces, or wedge them all together to baffle your foe?
I'm not sure exactly where I will reassign my vote for now, and I've just started work. But I'll think about it.
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So Jorbles made the same mistake I did, by revealing the amount of dice he rolled?
If so, was that before or after I derped that?
He revealed the number of dice that *ashersky* rolled in his extra roll. It was after you derped it, given that it was rolled after you did it.
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So Jorbles made the same mistake I did, by revealing the amount of dice he rolled?
If so, was that before or after I derped that?
He revealed the number of dice that *ashersky* rolled in his extra roll. It was after you derped it, given that it was rolled after you did it.
Oh okay.
I'm not sure whether or not that should be taken as an honest mistake.
If he already saw that I derped, then wouldn't he know enough to not do the same thing?
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Clearly I misused PPE. What I meant was I had just signed on, went to post my roll, saw there were 35 posts since I last signed on, and noted that so everyone would know I was not up to date on what might have happened recently. I did not delay at all, and couldn't have played with timing b/c I wasn't up to date. I don't think I'm the only one who has been using PPE that way. Why include the number otherwise?
That's what I was having trouble figuring out. I have seen people doing weird things with PPE.
Do we need a post somewhere that explains PPE? PPE=Pre-post edit. Because in mafia games you are not allowed to edit your post afterwards. It's used exactly like an EDIT: tag in any other forum ever. The way it works is:
You click "post". You see that some # of posts have been made while you were writing. You read those posts, and edit your post accordingly (or add a PS based on it, which is what EDIT tags generally are).
In games where things are moving fast, you get frustrated and just say "I'm not reading those posts. There were 11 posts since the last time I clicked the Post button and started editing my post. I'm just getting my thoughts out there, to heck with intermediate posts." Which is abbreviated as "PPE: 11 posts".
Now I'm curious...is there something that told you how many posts there were, or did you check your post number and the last post number? Oh maybe unread replies has it? Anyways, it makes sense now.
Regarding the value. I expect scum to have played middling numbers mostly. Trying to blend in, while not helping as much as they were able. I wouldn't be so surprised if scum played a 6, it might have been all they could play other than a 2. I doubt any scum got a 6 AND a 5/4 and decided to play the 6 just for the town-cred.
However, I also expect that scum tried to make us lose the fight. I know they tried a little bit, and I doubt that was purely to enhance town-cred. So, personally I'm looking at what happened with the fight to try to find likely scum. You look likely because your roll was exactly the highest value that ensured we couldn't win. And you claim to have not read the intermediate posts (and thus have been unaware of it). It's the same sort of suspicious as Voltaire...you went out of your way to excuse your scummy roll, when you supposedly wouldn't know it was scummy.
I'll go back to vote: Voltaire though...
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So Jorbles made the same mistake I did, by revealing the amount of dice he rolled?
If so, was that before or after I derped that?
He revealed the number of dice that *ashersky* rolled in his extra roll. It was after you derped it, given that it was rolled after you did it.
Oh okay.
I'm not sure whether or not that should be taken as an honest mistake.
If he already saw that I derped, then wouldn't he know enough to not do the same thing?
Have you read it in place, or are you judging it based on others comments? Here's the quote...You should decide for yourself if it's scummy.
I think he should have known not to do it, but he was claiming his role, and part of his role included number of dice rolled. I don't think it's a huge deal...Once we knew it was a full roll, I would have been surprised to learn that ash didn't roll 3 dice. Jorbles claiming the role at all could be viewed as suspicious, because he wanted the town-cred assigned to ashersky. But the fact is, that he ensured that we could beat the troll when we otherwise couldn't. Basically, he gave town a benefit rather than giving scum a benefit and he didn't have to do it (unless it's compulsory...). Yeah, he revealed some info that should have stayed hidden...but seriously. I'm viewing the monsters as essentially 1-shot PRs for either side (that might be inaccurate, but seems relatively likely). So, if Jorbles gave us a 1-shot PR for town-cred, I'll give him the town-cred.
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While I find it prudent to consider Jorbles' role power usage a Town move I don't think that means we necessarily trust his read on ashersky. Consider if he read ashersky wrong and ashersky was actually Mafia, he is still pressed into performing the roll and needing it to be a good one to avoid a sort of double-jeopardy situation as he has been called upon twice to roll in one day.
I'm not insinuating ashersky to be Mafia but I am removing from my mind any town-cred he may have held by this particular action. I think, though, prior to the Jorbles' claim it warranted town cred and the behavior of other players during this period should be viewed in this light. I am posting this because in evaluating my current position on xeiron I realized I was lending ashersky town-cred that I now feel unwarranted.
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I'm not insinuating ashersky to be Mafia but I am removing from my mind any town-cred he may have held by this particular action. I think, though, prior to the Jorbles' claim it warranted town cred and the behavior of other players during this period should be viewed in this light. I am posting this because in evaluating my current position on xeiron I realized I was lending ashersky town-cred that I now feel unwarranted.
I think we are in agreement here. I believe it was theorel who expressed the same opinion, and it's one I agree with.
Also theorel how did you get back to a vote on me? I wasn't excusing a scummy play beforehand, I was excusing derprolling in a way that was more likely to cause me to play a poor die today. Yes, it was not good. Yes, I should have been paying more attention. Yes, it resulted in an anti-town action by me. But none of those things are necessarily scummy.
I stand by my recent play as pro-town and hope it can lead us to a better lynch that myself. I personally do not know where that should be right now.
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Oh, one more thing @ash: what do you mean about when they played their number? Do you mean like, what day/time? Or do you mean what order? Just to clarify the numbers listed there are in order, that's why I called it a count/timeline.
I do mean order. Like, waiting to roll seems much scummier than not.
In other news, Voltaire is sounding townier now. I'll need to re-evaluate my scum-read on him.
It would probably be beneficial to review the remainder of town. In particular, I'm no longer so confident ash is town (given that his roll came from Jorbles). I mean, he's not a scum-read at this point or anything. I do find it interesting that he played the lowest value that I suggested should be played previous to xeiron rolling. These things can happen, but xeiron had a choice: make town win the fight, OR come under heavy suspicion for losing it.
ashersky had a similar choice, except he had to play something (or be caught out by Jorbles). I think a 4 is exactly the number that I would expect scum-ash to play, all else being equal.
So, I don't give any town-cred to ashersky for his add-on. Which puts him back to around null for me, especially given that he hasn't self-voted.
As for the 4, I played my highest roll. I could have played lower, right? Unless you think I rolled 4, 6, 6, which seems much harder to do.
If you think I could have chosen a middle roll and stored a higher one, well sure. But that's not a strong argument to make.
What's not to say you didn't bank a 6 when you played your second 5? It's all conjecture, and not useful.
You don't need to find me towny for playing the second roll, but to make it seem like I ensured I rolled the lowest helpful number on purpose for towncred is a stretch.
As for not self-voting -- are you serious? Like, you won't consider me town unless I do it?
Theo is coming off as super scummy as usual (ie., flipping reads often, both on people and actions, not taking a stance firm enough to be pinned on you, hiding behind math), which tracks with his town meta. (Note: were you in the game where Voltgloss and I really attacked each other and both ended up beign town and you were the scum manipulating everything? Or was that eHal? I confuse you two all the time.)
I'm pretty confident that wasn't me. The only game you've played with me as scum is Innovation, I think.
To be clear, I don't find you scummy for your roll. That should be made 100% clear because I did explain why I could see scum playing what you did.
When I initially gave you town-cred I thought that you had chosen to play an extra die. Which is hugely pro-town. But then Jorbles revealed that he had chosen for you to play an extra die. So, there are 2 possibilities: 1. you're town, 2. you're scum. If you're town, you played the highest die you rolled which was a 4. That's totally plausible and that or worse has happened to at least 2 town this game (probably more). So, your play makes sense from town. The question is then: does your play make sense from scum? Well, yes it does. A 4 is really the perfect number for scum to play there. It's low enough not to guarantee we win, and high enough to avoid major suspicion. So, IF you're scum I expect that you would've wanted to play a 4. But, it doesn't make you scum for playing it. I said that I gave no town-cred. Really you should get just a little, because as noted you could have played worse (assuming you rolled worse).
I am totally serious about not self-voting. If you are in fact town, this game will be the first time as town that you haven't self-voted as far as I can tell. Every game where you've been scum you've avoided it, and every game where you're town you've done it. You've pointed it out yourself several times as town (but managed to avoid the discussion every time you're scum). You've completely reversed the meta surrounding self-votes for yourself. Is this possibly the first game where town-ash didn't self-vote? Sure, it's possible, just like how MXXX could have been the first game where scum-ash did self-vote.
Other than the lack of a self-vote, you don't seem terribly scummy. But really, lack of self-vote is such a strong tell from you, that I can't go townier than null. I dunno, was a time where helpful unscummy ash must be scum, because town ash catches way more flak. I think we may be past that point...but still, you're coming across as townie, and from you that puts me a little on edge.
There's still lots of game to be played. He could still self vote. I've never seen him self vote for no reason at the beginning of the game. That said, ashersky is probably pretty aware of his self vote meta (since many people have discussed it in other games), and could switch it up at any time.
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I'm not insinuating ashersky to be Mafia but I am removing from my mind any town-cred he may have held by this particular action. I think, though, prior to the Jorbles' claim it warranted town cred and the behavior of other players during this period should be viewed in this light. I am posting this because in evaluating my current position on xeiron I realized I was lending ashersky town-cred that I now feel unwarranted.
I think we are in agreement here. I believe it was theorel who expressed the same opinion, and it's one I agree with.
Also theorel how did you get back to a vote on me? I wasn't excusing a scummy play beforehand, I was excusing derprolling in a way that was more likely to cause me to play a poor die today. Yes, it was not good. Yes, I should have been paying more attention. Yes, it resulted in an anti-town action by me. But none of those things are necessarily scummy.
I stand by my recent play as pro-town and hope it can lead us to a better lynch that myself. I personally do not know where that should be right now.
Your recent play is pro-town. I'm not convinced it makes you town.
efhw explained the PPE thing, although I'd appreciate some confirmation that other people have used it this way. In her explanation though I've recalled other really bizarre uses of PPE.
I'm not sure exactly where I want my vote to be...so I put it back on you, because I'm still comfortable with your lynch. I'm pretty confident I still want to lynch one of you, efhw, and Walrus.
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Okay, day ends Saturday 12pm. That gives us 4 days to deadline. I feel like the town as a whole lacks direction at this particular moment.
Soft Deadline suggestion: I suggest we try to finish the day by Thursday at 12pm. Then if we run out of time without a lynch, we have a couple days to pull one together. So, that's the official soft deadline, unless someone wants to change it. (not because I'm somebody special, but just because if no one ever says that we get everyone moaning about how it wasn't a real soft deadline). We don't have an IC to make it, so I'm doing it.
Unofficial Vote Count (based on last vote count):
Voltaire (4): Theorel, Jorbles, BoxOfDog, xeiron
Archetype (2): efhw, Eevee
Walrus (3): faust, Voltaire, chairs
BoxOfDog (1): Archetype
xeiron (1): pingpongsam
Not Voting (2): ashersky, walrus
Yep, I think Voltaire is where I wanted my vote.
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Theorel, I am currently not voting.
I agree with the soft deadline.
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@Voltaire: you should tell Jimmmmm, because you unvoted before the last vote count.
Unofficial Vote Count (based on last vote count):
Voltaire (4): Theorel, Jorbles, BoxOfDog, xeiron
Archetype (2): efhw, Eevee
Walrus (2): faust, chairs
BoxOfDog (1): Archetype
xeiron (1): pingpongsam
Not Voting (3): ashersky, walrus, Voltaire
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Jimmmm, I unvoted in 376.
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Okay, day ends Saturday 12pm. That gives us 4 days to deadline. I feel like the town as a whole lacks direction at this particular moment.
Soft Deadline suggestion: I suggest we try to finish the day by Thursday at 12pm. Then if we run out of time without a lynch, we have a couple days to pull one together. So, that's the official soft deadline, unless someone wants to change it. (not because I'm somebody special, but just because if no one ever says that we get everyone moaning about how it wasn't a real soft deadline). We don't have an IC to make it, so I'm doing it.
I am okay with the soft vote deadline, in fact more than okay, I'll be VLA at deadline, but I'll make sure my vote is parked somewhere I'm happy with it at soft deadline in case we miss the deadline.
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1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline. If no player has been lynched by the deadline, the player with the most votes is lynched. If there is a tie for most votes, no lynch occurs.
This makes me think a soft deadline is really necessary. I believe we should try to always get our desired lynches through before the deadline.
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A quick catch-up post:
1) I'm cool with the soft deadline, although you all need to realize that due to time zones, that's the middle of the night for me and I won't be around. I will be around before and after, though.
2) For what it is worth, I do believe Box posts every time he comes to the forums. I don't believe he's posting usefully every time, though.
3) PPE has always meant Pre-Post Edit to me. It is as Theorel described -- I hit Post or Preview, see new posts, then add something based on what people wrote while I was typing.
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13. EFHW -- Man, I can't read EFHW. One, I always think she's Kooshie, and I hold Masons and Monks against her. She's been fine so far. I guess she's on the no lynch list.
Seriously? I know you often can't read me, but re: the rest, really? I hope you are trying to provoke me, b/c I really thought I would be an individual to you by now, and a lot has happened since M and M.
You need to not take things personally or something.
As for MnM, man that one stung. So yeah, it still bugs me how we lost that one to great scum play by Kooshie. You and she joined around the same time, so I've always made a connection between you.
I can say, when I mod you, you are very distinct to me. But playing in the same game, it's different, because I don't know your alignment or anything.
Whether you like it, or works for others, I often define each player by their differences (or similarities) to other players. It isn't just you and Kooshie. It's mail-mi and liopoil. It's Theorel and eHalcyon. It's Galzria and Robz. It's Voltgloss and Voltaire. Heck, me and yuma for a lot of you.
That is now twice this game, in a short period of time, that you've snapped at me unprovoked. That's different, for sure.
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Vote Count 1.8
Voltaire (4): Jorbles, BoxOfDog, xeiron, theorel
Archetype (2): EFHW, Eevee
WalrusMcFishSr (2): faust, chairs
BoxOfDog (1): Archetype
xeiron (1): pingpongsam
not voting (3): ashersky, Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
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Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
Good question, what if scum have a power to adjust the total that they're just saving for close to deadline?
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EFHW and Kooshie know each other IRL. I can keep them apart just fine.
I don't think we should 'hurry then lynch'. Especially after you've mentioned it. If scum have a power like that, they'll try to be online at the time of a lynch to try to activate it. So I don't think we should rush, but a soft deadline would work.
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Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
Good question, what if scum have a power to adjust the total that they're just saving for close to deadline?
Scum already used a role to mess with the total. I don't think it's all that likely that they have two such roles.
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Let's soft deadline for Oct 10, 9 PM server time?
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EFHW and Kooshie know each other IRL. I can keep them apart just fine.
If I knew them in real life, it'd be easier for me, too.
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Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
Good question, what if scum have a power to adjust the total that they're just saving for close to deadline?
Scum already used a role to mess with the total. I don't think it's all that likely that they have two such roles.
This sounds like covering for scum.
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13. EFHW -- Man, I can't read EFHW. One, I always think she's Kooshie, and I hold Masons and Monks against her. She's been fine so far. I guess she's on the no lynch list.
I
Seriously? I know you often can't read me, but re: the rest, really? I hope you are trying to provoke me, b/c I really thought I would be an individual to you by now, and a lot has happened since M and M.
You need to not take things personally or something.
As for MnM, man that one stung. So yeah, it still bugs me how we lost that one to great scum play by Kooshie. You and she joined around the same time, so I've always made a connection between you.
I can say, when I mod you, you are very distinct to me. But playing in the same game, it's different, because I don't know your alignment or anything.
Whether you like it, or works for others, I often define each player by their differences (or similarities) to other players. It isn't just you and Kooshie. It's mail-mi and liopoil. It's Theorel and eHalcyon. It's Galzria and Robz. It's Voltgloss and Voltaire. Heck, me and yuma for a lot of you.
That is now twice this game, in a short period of time, that you've snapped at me unprovoked. That's different,
Sorry, I didn't mean to sound snappy either time. I was never mad. And it was me, not Kooshie in M and M.
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Let's soft deadline for Oct 10, 9 PM server time?
. I can be there then. Not at 12.
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So suddenly people left the voltaire wagon becuse he posted some extra posts?
Can anyone point out for me what he said that was so towny? Because I didn't see anything that scum could not have said.
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EFHW and Kooshie know each other IRL. I can keep them apart just fine.
If I knew them in real life, it'd be easier for me, too.
I don't know them in real life, if that's what you're implying.
I'm fine with the October 10 deadline.
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Sorry, I didn't mean to sound snappy either time. I was never mad. And it was me, not Kooshie in M and M.
Aha! vote: kooshie
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Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
Good question, what if scum have a power to adjust the total that they're just saving for close to deadline?
Scum already used a role to mess with the total. I don't think it's all that likely that they have two such roles.
This sounds like covering for scum.
I agree. I don't like that statement at all.
Vote: faust
This is role madness. Who knows what kind of wacky variables are out there, probably a lot, as if the core premise weren't wacky enough. And we've only seen a few of them...can somebody with more experience comment on how much wackiness is par for the course for one of these games?
Anyway, I'm glad the troll stands to be defeated, but it's a razor thin margin and therefore probably even easier for scum to mess with. I think it's quite likely they're saving some plot until the 11th hour, and we shouldn't get complacent.
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I'm fine with the October 10 deadline.
Actually, I just realized I'll be gone that night at a "pwarty". But I'll try to stay online as best as I can before I have to leave.
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Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
Good question, what if scum have a power to adjust the total that they're just saving for close to deadline?
Scum already used a role to mess with the total. I don't think it's all that likely that they have two such roles.
This sounds like covering for scum.
I agree. I don't like that statement at all.
Vote: faust
This is role madness. Who knows what kind of wacky variables are out there, probably a lot, as if the core premise weren't wacky enough. And we've only seen a few of them...can somebody with more experience comment on how much wackiness is par for the course for one of these games?
Anyway, I'm glad the troll stands to be defeated, but it's a razor thin margin and therefore probably even easier for scum to mess with. I think it's quite likely they're saving some plot until the 11th hour, and we shouldn't get complacent.
Depends on which type of RMM this might be. If it's closer to "normal games but the nights matter a lot more" (a la my RMM games -- see LOTR1, LOTR2, Shakespeare), I'd say we should NOT expect too much more in the shenanigans arena.
If it is closer to old school RMM (a la basically Bastard but without the Bastard stuff), I'd expect a lot more.
Make sense?
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Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
Good question, what if scum have a power to adjust the total that they're just saving for close to deadline?
Scum already used a role to mess with the total. I don't think it's all that likely that they have two such roles.
This sounds like covering for scum.
I agree. I don't like that statement at all.
Vote: faust
This is role madness. Who knows what kind of wacky variables are out there, probably a lot, as if the core premise weren't wacky enough. And we've only seen a few of them...can somebody with more experience comment on how much wackiness is par for the course for one of these games?
Anyway, I'm glad the troll stands to be defeated, but it's a razor thin margin and therefore probably even easier for scum to mess with. I think it's quite likely they're saving some plot until the 11th hour, and we shouldn't get complacent.
Depends on which type of RMM this might be. If it's closer to "normal games but the nights matter a lot more" (a la my RMM games -- see LOTR1, LOTR2, Shakespeare), I'd say we should NOT expect too much more in the shenanigans arena.
If it is closer to old school RMM (a la basically Bastard but without the Bastard stuff), I'd expect a lot more.
Make sense?
OK. So if you had to hazard a guess, which end of the spectrum would you predict this game to be closer to? I don't know if it's bad form to speculate about the mods or setup too much. Certainly you know more about the historical side of things at least.
Either way I still don't like the sentiment of faust's post.
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Wait wat? Who's Kooshie?
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I agree. I don't like that statement at all.
Vote: faust
This is role madness. Who knows what kind of wacky variables are out there, probably a lot, as if the core premise weren't wacky enough. And we've only seen a few of them...can somebody with more experience comment on how much wackiness is par for the course for one of these games?
Anyway, I'm glad the troll stands to be defeated, but it's a razor thin margin and therefore probably even easier for scum to mess with. I think it's quite likely they're saving some plot until the 11th hour, and we shouldn't get complacent.
Eh, if scum has some way of messing with our total again, and they decide to wait until late, I doubt we can orchestrate a quick lynch here. On top of that, having a quick lynch means not giving people an opportunity to claim, and I oppose that. It is important however that we do not end this day by timing out, but by getting a majority lynch. Else we make it easy for scum to change the total short before the deadline.
A question to the mod: Can dice still be played once this game has entered twilight?
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13. EFHW -- Man, I can't read EFHW. One, I always think she's Kooshie, and I hold Masons and Monks against her. She's been fine so far. I guess she's on the no lynch list.
Seriously? I know you often can't read me, but re: the rest, really? I hope you are trying to provoke me, b/c I really thought I would be an individual to you by now, and a lot has happened since M and M.
I thought it was pretty obvious the entire ashersky's read post was designed to provoke reactions. I wonder why he gave me a town read though. I feel I'm getting town reads left and right and I'm not 100% sure why (which makes me wary it could be scum knowingly using the fact I have a problem of reciprocating town reads against me).
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Can dice still be played once this game has entered twilight?
When the Day ends, either by reaching a majority or by reaching the deadline, no more actions can be initiated. Actions that have already been initiated but need to be resolved will be. So while you cannot roll in twilight, if you have already rolled but haven't had a chance to play a die, you may play it in twilight. Once the thread is locked, any unresolved rolls for which playing a die is mandatory will be resolved randomly.
To be clear, if the deadline is reached but there is no one around to lock the thread, twilight begins.
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I feel I'm getting town reads left and right and I'm not 100% sure why (which makes me wary it could be scum knowingly using the fact I have a problem of reciprocating town reads against me).
I suspect you, Eevee. But only because you are so low profile this day. I've been informed your D1 playstyle has changed to be quieter. However, I am not used to it at all. That said, your posts have been some of the strongest scumhunting posts in the game.
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I feel I'm getting town reads left and right and I'm not 100% sure why (which makes me wary it could be scum knowingly using the fact I have a problem of reciprocating town reads against me).
I suspect you, Eevee. But only because you are so low profile this day. I've been informed your D1 playstyle has changed to be quieter. However, I am not used to it at all. That said, your posts have been some of the strongest scumhunting posts in the game.
This caused me to reread Eevee...really? Some of the strongest scumhunting posts in the game?
Well, he's asked some decent questions, trying to make people reason their stances. He questions town-reads on him, and pushes the idea that people should really consider the concrete information of the rolls.
At the same time, he sits with his vote on Archetype, and his scum-reads seem to be reserved for Voltaire and Archetype. He quasi-defends xeiron in his questions towards ash/Voltaire (just in the sense that he's questioning their reads).
I mean, after rereading, I think he's playing a pro-town game. So if anything I might adjust my read here to slight town, but I'm not seeing this strong scumhunting that pps sees.
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His analysis doesn't seem so great as you have pointed out. However, the questions he poses strike me as astute, insightful and particularly useful to the rest of us with regards to the answers/reactions they demand. I think I am pretty good at analyzing overall behavior but I am not so hot at the direct elucidation line of questioning. Maybe it is my respect of this skill that leads me to lend such play as being strong town play.
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In other words, if I can perceive deception to a pointed question but cannot conceive of the question itself then I consider the person asking those questions to be an asset since it directly complements my ability.
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Man, I like being the topic of the discussion!
theorel, finding scumreads, especially day 1, has always been hard for me.
Here I have two in Archetype in Voltaire.
Jorbles I found towny even before the claim, even more strongly so after it.
Ashersky I find hard to read because I'm pretty sure he intentionally is loading his posts with thoughts/emotions that aren't genuine because he wants reactions.
PPS I've found towny all game, and continue to do so as he posts more.
theorel is obviously very into the game and being very helpful, I don't think it's impossible he'd play scum like this, but he'd be my third least preferred lynch.
No strong reads on anyone else.
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theorel, finding scumreads, especially day 1, has always been hard for me.
True, I don't find you scummy for it, but I was pointing it out as a question regarding the "strength" of your scumhunting. Basically trying to understand pps' assertion.
Oh, I just looked at my post, and I think it may have come across as more contentious than intended due to the "really?" question. That was my initial reaction to pps' post, followed by reread, and figuring out Eevee's contributions. I came to the pro-town but not what I would qualify as strong scumhunting conclusion.
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Sorry, I didn't mean to sound snappy either time. I was never mad. And it was me, not Kooshie in M and M.
Aha! vote: kooshie
:P.. Why isn't there a "that's funny" emoticon?
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Post Count
79 theorel
72 ashersky
47 Voltaire
43 pps
30 Eevee
29 BoxOfDog
27 faust
26 Jorbles
26 EFHW
25 chairs
20 Archetype
19 xeiron
18 Walrus
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Theorel did play this way in Innovation.
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And actually why would scum ever want to give extra rolls, when losing to the monster is always better for scum? Am I missing something?
Yes, buying powers.
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And actually why would scum ever want to give extra rolls, when losing to the monster is always better for scum? Am I missing something?
Yes, buying powers.
That would apply to buying extra rolls for themselves, or I guess for scumbuddies. Ok.
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I did some re-reads. I will not vote for theorel, ash, or jorbles today (first two for post count, second for claim) unless they claim scum.
Walrus
I can see a scum narrative here and I can see a town narrative here. Theorel makes a very good point that he asks for theory help, and then rolls anyway (this is different than what I did, which was more or less "I don't know what I'm doing - wait we should just roll? ok"). He joined my wagon after initially stating that he thought there was scum on it, and then was the first to vote for faust. He's been asking a lot of "meta" questions, which just reads as a newer player and not scum fishing or anything like that.
The strongest case against him is his roll, but we've hashed out why that may not be so great.
xeiron
First to lay out some theory behind the monsters/rolling. xeiron is always theory, but he seems to be very pro-town in what he does. Yes, scum can do it for cover. He joined by ashersky vote. Has been consistent in his thought process, even though he puts me to L-1. I am leaning town here.
Archetype
I stand by my statement that there's not much here. His posts with content, though, are the kind of cautious posts town usually makes. His voting record is also troubling - he advocates lynching someone with a lower chance of being scum? But does scum really suggest that? So...null here. Would not be opposed to his lynch, but I do not think I want to vote here.
chairs
Does the whole town-read-on-me-but-then-votes-me thing, which he claims is a misunderstanding where he took a post of Eevee's as mine. chairs, can you please point to the posts where I scumhunted during the theory discussion?
volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing
EFHW
Votes me, is the first to notice chairs's change-up. Votes Archetype for...disagreements? I don't follow how Archetype's post made EFHW think Arch was scum. There's not a terrible lot here. She seems fairly reactionary. I could vote here.
faust
I'm having a hard time writing anything more than "he seems town to me". Looks at math, considers implications of voting low rollers, tried to do some RVS at the start, votes Walrus for his explanation (which I'm fine with). Leaning town here, won't vote today.
BoxOfDog
Posts are mostly the ash stuff and comments about lurking. No reason to think he's scum, no reason to think he's town. Always worried someone like him can be an "easy" mislynch. Would need to analyze a theoretical wagon on him, if one formed, to decide if I were comfortable voting here today.
Eevee
I don't see the obvious pro-townness stuff that everyone else does. I'm null here as well. An interesting point to keep in mind is his concern with everyone giving him town reads. (wait - now I can't find that post. Did someone else say it about themselves? What am I thinking of?)
pps
Lots of stuff here. Talks about the dice theory, lots of theory, lots of reads, lots of poking. I think this is mostly pro-town scumhunting. Town read here, also one of the higher posters, would not lynch today.
QUESTION FOR EVERYONE: Who was the first person to say the "new" me is more town?
That makes my personal lynch pool Eevee, EFHW, chairs, and Walrus (with Box as a maybe). For now, I am going to vote: EFHW. Those I asked questions to, I'd appreciate replies.
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QUESTION FOR EVERYONE: Who was the first person to say the "new" me is more town?
I'm fairly certain it was me. This came after you unvoted Jorbles, you went to L-1 and I got off the wagon and you started making a new effort at the game.
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13. EFHW -- Man, I can't read EFHW. One, I always think she's Kooshie, and I hold Masons and Monks against her. She's been fine so far. I guess she's on the no lynch list.
Seriously? I know you often can't read me, but re: the rest, really? I hope you are trying to provoke me, b/c I really thought I would be an individual to you by now, and a lot has happened since M and M.
I thought it was pretty obvious the entire ashersky's read post was designed to provoke reactions. I wonder why he gave me a town read though. I feel I'm getting town reads left and right and I'm not 100% sure why (which makes me wary it could be scum knowingly using the fact I have a problem of reciprocating town reads against me).
This is the post you're looking for Voltaire.
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13. EFHW -- Man, I can't read EFHW. One, I always think she's Kooshie, and I hold Masons and Monks against her. She's been fine so far. I guess she's on the no lynch list.
Seriously? I know you often can't read me, but re: the rest, really? I hope you are trying to provoke me, b/c I really thought I would be an individual to you by now, and a lot has happened since M and M.
I thought it was pretty obvious the entire ashersky's read post was designed to provoke reactions. I wonder why he gave me a town read though. I feel I'm getting town reads left and right and I'm not 100% sure why (which makes me wary it could be scum knowingly using the fact I have a problem of reciprocating town reads against me).
This is the post you're looking for Voltaire.
Thanks. Small town points for Eevee on this, I think. I can't see scum successfully working the mental gymnastics on this one. It's a tiny read, either way.
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Voltaire: as soon as I can find time, I will.
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Volt, here are some quotes from you that I felt were scumhunting in the context of this game:
vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
This is why people dislike having theory discussion...because people decide that differences of opinion in theory are scummy. Differences of opinion aren't scummy, voting people over it is scummy. Picking ashersky of all people to vote over a difference of opinion is completely ridiculous. You're vote here is at best as useful as RVS, at worst it's trying to cast suspicion where it's unwarranted.
vote: Voltaire
Well, I have already seen this in action. I have already made a theory-based mistake because I made a decision prior to your post, after seeing ash's "just roll dice" post and "everybody claim" and I foolishly didn't bother thinking through all those things thoroughly. Then you made your very helpful rundown post and I've seen the mistakes here. Then I thought that what happened to me is exactly what scum wants. So I voted ash. It's the most I've seen so far. I'm obviously not married to this decision.
There was no implied question. I made a statistical analysis. Trying to paint this as if I were fishing for Mafia-enriching information only confirms my suspicions on you.
Actually there is an implied question, whether you meant it or not. In order to defend myself, I would need to state the number of dice I rolled and what numbers came up.
I do not think mafia would be as brash as you have been, so I have a town read on you right now.
So is there any conclusion to draw other than scum has a PR that can ignore/discard/destroy/(count as negative) a die? That's what I'm thinking.
All these reactions are probably honest ones, because scum didn't have to think "hmmm...how would town react to this? I need to do that!" because there was no danger to begin with, and no expectation.
So...there was no point. Last time you did this, I remember you ended up suspecting and voting entirely town players.
I guess they may not be considered scumhunting in a traditional Mafia sense, but given how important the "side game" of monster hunting is, I felt these were relevant posts and contributed to Town goals. I think it also has pushed ash to at least try to not be confusing all game :P
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OH. POO.. ON A STICK.
I completely forgot about the forums today ._.
Uhh.. Skimming..
It seems like it's been pretty slow recently. Not a lot to talk about.
I think we're pretty much past the RVS, but there are still more people to consider.
What about pingpong? We haven't really even talked about him, he's just been doing the talking.
He does have some positive input, and I feel like he's pushing town in the right direction.. But, you never know.
Just throwing the idea out there.
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Oh wow. I didn't realize I've contributed so little post-wise.
OH. POO.. ON A STICK.
I completely forgot about the forums today ._.
Uhh.. Skimming..
It seems like it's been pretty slow recently. Not a lot to talk about.
I think we're pretty much past the RVS, but there are still more people to consider.
What about pingpong? We haven't really even talked about him, he's just been doing the talking.
He does have some positive input, and I feel like he's pushing town in the right direction.. But, you never know.
Just throwing the idea out there.
Hm. Nothing has really stood out to me either. I'll quickly reread him.
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Here's a megapost to analyze:
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f7/Mega_Man_%28Mega_Man_9%29.png)
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-snip-
(http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130925101957/powerlisting/images/thumb/a/a9/I-see-what-you-did-there.jpg/480px-I-see-what-you-did-there.jpg)
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Actually, there's some interesting things here.
Quick Summary of PPS:
His first post, which is the first post of the entire game, is him playing a 5. He eventually votes Voltaire for rolling a 3 and questions how he could get something that low unless he is willing to roll a lot of dice and take one for the team. Voltaire says he's fishing for info, but he replies to Voltaire that him trying to paint PPS as fishing for info shows even more profoundly that he is scum. Does some math, then agrees with faust that players shouldn't claim monster fighting abilities and that monster fighting abilities < scum fighting abilities. Says that low-rollers should roll first on D2 and gives a townread on faust. Volt votes Jorbles, and PPS becomes even more sure of his vote because he feels that pushing a lynch on a different low roller would be something he'd do as scum. Says there is likely scum in Jorbles/Voltaire. Agrees with me that we shouldn't be pushing so hard to find a D1 Mafia lynch.
Says this:
I have a theory on what the effect of defeating the troll may have. It would pertinent in Town's direction towards a D1 lynch. It could also be rather helpful towards Mafia's agenda.
Is it a good idea for me to discuss this or just keep it to myself and say "I knew it" or "doh" later?
Is the first to jump on Jorbles for telling the Town that ashersky has a stored die. Says that Jorbles defense was lackluster pre-claim, but now that his role is out in the open he wants to hear more. PPS is no where near convinced that Voltaire is Town, but doesn't like how quickly he got to L-1. Contemplates Mafia being some of the higher rollers to blend in.
Gives this case on xeiron:
Let me begin with his very first post in the game in which he suggests that we focus on the troll as a first priority. Pray tell, why does he then wait to be the last to roll? He then casually sets up a position on an easily divisible issue in every game; he's says he is pro-theory and then promptly votes ashersky for "pushing town in the wrong" direction when in fact, he is simply talking theory. Oh, and it is notable that this seems an almost knee jerk response to getting a plain old RVS thrown onto him by Faust. Also, note Volt cast the first vote on ashersky. How best to blend than to appear to agree and then at the late moment turn and vote the guy you sheeped? He finds his opportunity to switch ships when ashersky makes arguably the most pro-town move at that point in the game. Now, he's ready to chase a low-roller, but consider that this is already a present theory and a strong basis for the wagon has already begun on Voltaire. I have my suspicions on theorel but I can't fault his play and especially not for being first onto Voltaire. I'm second onto Voltaire and I stayed on it for awhile because it seemed the longer I pressed the more scummy he seemed to be. Jorbles is now arguably Town and the way those two wagons shaped up I feel it is plausible that Volt/Jorbles are both Town. If Jorbles (who also voted Voltaire) is Mafia then his role-play was a superb diversion. Volt's wagon starts to build some steam and then enters xeiron's L-1 vote that screams, "well, the Jorbles/Volt debate has ended let us all move to lynch Volt but don't let me be the hammer".
Vote: xeiron
Lends ashersky towncred, but starts reconsidering it. Suspects Eevee since he's been so low profile.
My commentary:
I'm getting a slight townvibe here. No contractions as far as I can tell and nothing too left field. He's been active and I see that we have some similar views. I'll need to look a bit closer into that xeiron case.
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Actually, there's some interesting things here.
Quick Summary of PPS:
His first post, which is the first post of the entire game, is him playing a 5. He eventually votes Voltaire for rolling a 3 and questions how he could get something that low unless he is willing to roll a lot of dice and take one for the team. Voltaire says he's fishing for info, but he replies to Voltaire that him trying to paint PPS as fishing for info shows even more profoundly that he is scum. Does some math, then agrees with faust that players shouldn't claim monster fighting abilities and that monster fighting abilities < scum fighting abilities. Says that low-rollers should roll first on D2 and gives a townread on faust. Volt votes Jorbles, and PPS becomes even more sure of his vote because he feels that pushing a lynch on a different low roller would be something he'd do as scum. Says there is likely scum in Jorbles/Voltaire. Agrees with me that we shouldn't be pushing so hard to find a D1 Mafia lynch.
Says this:
I have a theory on what the effect of defeating the troll may have. It would pertinent in Town's direction towards a D1 lynch. It could also be rather helpful towards Mafia's agenda.
Is it a good idea for me to discuss this or just keep it to myself and say "I knew it" or "doh" later?
Is the first to jump on Jorbles for telling the Town that ashersky has a stored die. Says that Jorbles defense was lackluster pre-claim, but now that his role is out in the open he wants to hear more. PPS is no where near convinced that Voltaire is Town, but doesn't like how quickly he got to L-1. Contemplates Mafia being some of the higher rollers to blend in.
Gives this case on xeiron:
Let me begin with his very first post in the game in which he suggests that we focus on the troll as a first priority. Pray tell, why does he then wait to be the last to roll? He then casually sets up a position on an easily divisible issue in every game; he's says he is pro-theory and then promptly votes ashersky for "pushing town in the wrong" direction when in fact, he is simply talking theory. Oh, and it is notable that this seems an almost knee jerk response to getting a plain old RVS thrown onto him by Faust. Also, note Volt cast the first vote on ashersky. How best to blend than to appear to agree and then at the late moment turn and vote the guy you sheeped? He finds his opportunity to switch ships when ashersky makes arguably the most pro-town move at that point in the game. Now, he's ready to chase a low-roller, but consider that this is already a present theory and a strong basis for the wagon has already begun on Voltaire. I have my suspicions on theorel but I can't fault his play and especially not for being first onto Voltaire. I'm second onto Voltaire and I stayed on it for awhile because it seemed the longer I pressed the more scummy he seemed to be. Jorbles is now arguably Town and the way those two wagons shaped up I feel it is plausible that Volt/Jorbles are both Town. If Jorbles (who also voted Voltaire) is Mafia then his role-play was a superb diversion. Volt's wagon starts to build some steam and then enters xeiron's L-1 vote that screams, "well, the Jorbles/Volt debate has ended let us all move to lynch Volt but don't let me be the hammer".
Vote: xeiron
Lends ashersky towncred, but starts reconsidering it. Suspects Eevee since he's been so low profile.
My commentary:
I'm getting a slight townvibe here. No contractions as far as I can tell and nothing too left field. He's been active and I see that we have some similar views. I'll need to look a bit closer into that xeiron case.
Wow! Bravo.
I'm legitimately impressed.
Here I am, sitting on my butt watching Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. while you're working hard, cracking down on vague reads!
I feel pretty lazy, but who cares? I'm lazy already.
It seems like we've got all the information we need here, and after doing a small amount of reading myself, I'm going for an intelligent-townie over on pingpong's end.
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Vote Count 1.8
Voltaire (4): Jorbles, BoxOfDog, xeiron, theorel
Archetype (2): EFHW, Eevee
WalrusMcFishSr (2): faust, chairs
BoxOfDog (1): Archetype
xeiron (1): pingpongsam
not voting (3): ashersky, Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Yeah, so deadline is super soon. We need a consensus lynch, not a oh well lynch that scum can dodge.
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Vote Count 1.8
Voltaire (4): Jorbles, BoxOfDog, xeiron, theorel
Archetype (2): EFHW, Eevee
WalrusMcFishSr (2): faust, chairs
BoxOfDog (1): Archetype
xeiron (1): pingpongsam
not voting (3): ashersky, Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Yeah, so deadline is super soon. We need a consensus lynch, not a oh well lynch that scum can dodge.
It's not too soon. I'm sure we can reach a decision within three days.
We'll need to start wagon jumping, because vague suspicion really isn't helping us right now :I
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Not three days for me. Sat at noon is 4 am Mon morning for me, and I'm not available much on the weekends.
Volt has the most votes...is that still who those voters want?
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Here is my position on Voltaire. I don't think he is Mafia because of a D1 quick L-1. As I understand it, lynching Mafia on D1 is generally very unlikely to begin with so I can accept that a Townie will get lynched. If I am to consider contributing to a suspected Townie's lynch I must do it for the sole purpose of information gathering. This is where my conviction to vote Voltaire really falters. I feel the Voltaire wagon is largely uninformative. If I presume that the final wagon on Voltaire were the same that took it to L-1 plus one other person I am having hard time seeing what new information arises from that. In other words, I already have 85% of the information that I would receive from a Voltaire lynch without having to kill the guy I have good reason to believe is actually Town. The additional person to complete the lynch has a free pass to end the day so that final vote doesn't constitute a fully qualified 15% of the information, either.
If I could be convinced of the utility of a lynch I might support it. I would like to see lynch proposals that include the information gathering process that justifies the lynch using the assumption that the person will flip Town because it looks like to me we have no strong indicators that we have a good chance of lynching Mafia.
I will work on my own contribution to this end later this morning for now I must iron my clothes and feed my dogs :P
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That's all well and good PPS, except if Voltaire is indeed scum. It's hard to hit scum day 1, but it's still possible and vastly preferable. Resigning your vote to only information purposes makes it even harder to hit scum, and also makes analyzing your votes pretty much impossible. Who doesn't even attempt to vote for scum? Scum.
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Who doesn't even attempt to vote for scum? Scum.
Funny you should say that seeing as I have cast a vote on Voltaire and you have not.
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It's not too soon. I'm sure we can reach a decision within three days.
We'll need to start wagon jumping, because vague suspicion really isn't helping us right now :I
Soft-deadline is tonight at 9pm. We should try to lynch by then to avoid deadline insanity.
@pps: I'm not as convinced that Voltaire is town. I don't think it is beneficial to try to perform all analysis of what you would get out of a town-lynch before actually lynching someone. A significant problem with deciding to lynch someone due to the information that the lynch gives you on other players, is that it essentially contaminates that information, because people start making claims of "I'll vote here because if X is town, then at least it points strongly towards Y being scum". And really, the best way to get that information is by having everyone on wagon because they really believe (or state they believe) that the target will flip scum...whether because of case, or because they trust people making the case. Then we can analyze the reasons that they voted (or didn't vote) and try to find the scummy ones.
My preferred lynches are still efhw, voltaire, and walrus.
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My preferred lynches are still efhw, voltaire, and walrus.
Hey, I agree with 2 out of these 3! I do not want to lynch chairs. That leaves me with EFHW, Eevee, and Walrus, in that order. Any of those look tempting?
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Here is my position on Voltaire. I don't think he is Mafia because of a D1 quick L-1. As I understand it, lynching Mafia on D1 is generally very unlikely to begin with so I can accept that a Townie will get lynched. If I am to consider contributing to a suspected Townie's lynch I must do it for the sole purpose of information gathering. This is where my conviction to vote Voltaire really falters. I feel the Voltaire wagon is largely uninformative. If I presume that the final wagon on Voltaire were the same that took it to L-1 plus one other person I am having hard time seeing what new information arises from that. In other words, I already have 85% of the information that I would receive from a Voltaire lynch without having to kill the guy I have good reason to believe is actually Town. The additional person to complete the lynch has a free pass to end the day so that final vote doesn't constitute a fully qualified 15% of the information, either.
If I could be convinced of the utility of a lynch I might support it. I would like to see lynch proposals that include the information gathering process that justifies the lynch using the assumption that the person will flip Town because it looks like to me we have no strong indicators that we have a good chance of lynching Mafia.
I will work on my own contribution to this end later this morning for now I must iron my clothes and feed my dogs :P
The problem with not lynching Voltaire and using the wagon on him for analysis is: we're never sure of his alignment. So every case derived from Voltaire-wagon anaylsis can be basically rebutted by just saying "But what if Voltaire is scum?" We solve that problem if we lynch him today, and hey, he might still be scum.
I still prefer lynching Walrus because I think with all of Voltaire's posting, we can analyze him better on later days, while Walrus is more of a lurker who doesn't give much input. But I could lend my vote to a Voltaire lynch if Walrus doesn't go through.
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After some consideration I can agree that my proposed method is not without significant caveats that overshadow the purpose of the method.
My vote currently stands on xeiron. I think his lynch would be most informative regardless of flip and I would not be surprised to see him flip scum. I know I stand alone in voting him and it is not likely a popular vote at this stage. This fact alone leads me to believe he may well be scum.
I would support an Eevee lynch because I think he may be scum and either way he flips it will prove extremely informative.
I am not opposed to a walrus lynch as I don't think we lose a significant player if he flips Town. I can read his play as being either/or so hell, maybe he is actually Mafia which would be super.
I am not opposed to the Voltaire lynch but I think if he flips Town we just lost an asset and we don't gain much more information than we already have.
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I personally think we should vote: walrus. Volt's got enough posts for later analysis, faust's making good points, and I can't read EFHW right now.
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After some consideration I can agree that my proposed method is not without significant caveats that overshadow the purpose of the method.
My vote currently stands on xeiron. I think his lynch would be most informative regardless of flip and I would not be surprised to see him flip scum. I know I stand alone in voting him and it is not likely a popular vote at this stage. This fact alone leads me to believe he may well be scum.
I would support an Eevee lynch because I think he may be scum and either way he flips it will prove extremely informative.
I am not opposed to a walrus lynch as I don't think we lose a significant player if he flips Town. I can read his play as being either/or so hell, maybe he is actually Mafia which would be super.
I am not opposed to the Voltaire lynch but I think if he flips Town we just lost an asset and we don't gain much more information than we already have.
Do you mean efhw instead of Eevee here? You very recently said Eevee was a significant town-read.
I'll just go ahead and go back to vote: efhw. Given my feelings towards Voltaire, I think she's more likely to flip scum than walrus.
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Actually, I stated his posts were the strongest scum-hunting posts of the game. I also started that exact same post stating I held suspicions against him. It has occurred to me that Eevee may be playing Mafia quite well.
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Online now, catching up.
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Okay so it sounds like the lynches on the table are Walrus, Voltaire, EFHW, and Eevee.
I'll go through them in alphabetical order.
Eevee: Eevee has given me pretty towny vibes this game despite his leaping on Arch. Eevee's pretty good at hiding when he's scum, but when he came under scrutiny his responses only made me think town even more. I probably wouldn't participate in this lynch.
EFHW: Lots of number discussion when we were discussing it. Jumps on Archetype when she thinks he might be deliberately giving bad advice. Gets scummy vibes off of Voltaire for his post that seems insincere and then goes for chairs for sheeping her. Again votes for Archetype when he goes after me in a way that looks kinda scummy. Speculates that theorel and I might be a scum team setting her up, which is totally wrong, but I can kinda see it now that she says it. She get some scum points for not liking Buffy, :P, but overall in my reread she seems pretty dedicated to scum hunting. She might be doing a shotgun blast approach as scum to see what sticks, but I don't get that vibe. Her observations are pretty astute as far as I can see. I don't think I'd lynch her.
Voltaire: I still think Voltaire is my top scum read, and I think if he flips scum we should look hard at PPS for his attempt to try and move the lynch. His plays have gotten more active since the wagon built on him, but I can't shake the fact that I really think he's the most likely to flip scum of the players in this game.
Walrus: Clearly not the most active player, but that doesn't mean scum for sure. I could lynch him if it becomes clear the Volt isn't happening, but Voltaire is my preferred lynch. It'd be as much a policy lynch as anything else (I could get behind a Box lynch for similar reasons, though he rolled higher, he's been doing little scumhunting or serious posts to sell me on why he's a great person to keep in the game).
I'm going to keep my vote on Voltaire, but I will be around periodically today, and could move to Walrus if that's where the wagon ends up going. I'm less enthusiastic about it though.
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My lynch pool.
Would lynch:
Voltaire
EFHW
Walrus
Ashersky
May consider:
Eevee
Archetype
Pps
Chairs
Will not lynch:
Theorel
Jorbles
Faust
Box
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After some deliberation I am willing to join the Vote: walrus wagon.
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Unofficial Vote Count:
Voltaire (3): Jorbles, BoxOfDog, xeiron
Archetype (2): EFHW, Eevee
WalrusMcFishSr (3): faust, chairs, pps
BoxOfDog (1): Archetype
xeiron (1): pingpongsam
faust (1): Walrus
efhw (2): Voltaire, Theorel
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I don't mind a EFHW or BoxOfDog lynch, I don't want to lynch theorel, ashersky, or Jorbles. I could go either way for everyone else.
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And some comments:
Voltaire.
Low roller. Hist post does not give me a town impression, though I cannot really say I am sure he is scum either. He has a lot of one-line-posts early in the game, whitch I think is "easy" posts for scum to make. Some town-points for his reads-posts later in the game as he seems to have put effort in them, and because I find I agree with most of his reads.
I would still lynch him as I thing he has a resonable chance of flipping scum, and because he is a low roller. I have stated the benefit of lynching low rollers before.
EFHW
Has made little impression on me even though she is not really lurking. Played a 4 whitch is what I had expected scum to do (lowest of the "acceptable" rolls). We have not to many 4's though, so there is no reason to belive scum thought this way. I would lynch her as I have no reson not to. (I see resons not to lynch most others)
Walrus
Low roller and low poster. Seem genuine when explaining his thought process in this game, but I could see him write that as scum as well.
Would lynch
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Walrus: Clearly not the most active player, but that doesn't mean scum for sure. (I could get behind a Box lynch for similar reasons, though he rolled higher, he's been doing little scumhunting or serious posts to sell me on why he's a great person to keep in the game).
To clarify, I have actually posted more than you have, and I did roll higher.
I've been doing little scumhunting or serious posts, sure. But so what? I'm a joking person, but that doesn't mean I haven't contributed to the game in some way. And any person is good to keep in the game, unless they the Mafia. More numbers means that there is a higher chance of catching the scum. More opinions thrown in, more things to think about and consider.
I'm feeling quite confident in my vote on Voltaire, currently. Walrus doesn't seem like a legitimate option, to me. A lot of 'lurking' isn't on purpose.
I could consider EFHW, but I dunno.
Those are the big three at the moment, out of all of the recent posts. I'll do some careful investigating.
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Alright. Getting down to the soft deadline. It seems like the consensus is closing in on me, Voltaire, and EFHW. So let's focus on those for now.
Walrus--seems like a clever, honest lad. Handsome too. Would not lynch.
EFHW--just did a quick reread. Late to the party, late to roll, seems to blend in pretty well. My reread made her feel scummier than my initial impression, and maybe that was her design; stay unmemorable, just out of the "lurk zone" without getting in the spotlight too much. Of course she's in the spotlight now so maybe that didn't pan out so well. But to be honest I didn't completely pick up on a super scummy vibe. I would be OK with a lynch here, but I think that I would rather...
vote: Voltaire again. 1/3 of this is admittedly just to save my ass, as apparently I'm one of the more viable lynches along with him. 1/3 is for the low roll (again, applies equally well to me), which I don't think should just be ignored. The other 1/3 is for his seemingly strange behavior: not participating so much until that fact was called out, and then suddenly becoming more "towny" after the fact. From my limited experience this doesn't seem like ordinary town!Voltaire. I'm not 100% on this lynch either, but it's probably the best I've got D1, especially if we're narrowing down to a few viable options.
Now for some "real talk". This is my second game of Mafia, and honestly it might be my last, at least for a while. I'm trying really hard to enjoy this game. I really am. But it seems like to me personally, the reward:effort ratio is not as high as I would have hoped, with perhaps too much emotional angst for my taste as well. It feels more like an obligation than recreation to me right now. And what effort I do put in seems to be rather pointless. My last several "substantial" posts were basically ignored. I feel like a pawn to be judged by the power players--"Oh Walrus made a post, great, he's not lurking too much, that'll do pig"--without really participating in a meaningful way. A lot of this game seems to be about familiarity with the other players, and that's something I just don't possess to the degree that many of you do--hence my focus on "meta" questions and statistics where I actually feel like I could contribute. To be honest I wouldn't be crushed if I were the lynch today, simply because it would free me up. But at the same time I don't want to let down the town by just giving up. So just feel like I'm sort of drifting along here, and I don't know if I have the dedication to put in to become a power player myself.
Should I sub out? Maybe. But I find that to be confusing and weird, so I think I'll stick it through, and maybe my opinion will turn around. Maybe I'm just having a moment of weakness; maybe everybody gets these. I certainly don't want to be a buzzkill here. I'm not trying to drum up some emotional sympathy or anything either; I don't need or want any special treatment. But I did want to express myself so maybe you can understand my mindset a little better.
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Alright. Getting down to the soft deadline. It seems like the consensus is closing in on me, Voltaire, and EFHW. So let's focus on those for now.
Walrus--seems like a clever, honest lad. Handsome too. Would not lynch.
EFHW--just did a quick reread. Late to the party, late to roll, seems to blend in pretty well. My reread made her feel scummier than my initial impression, and maybe that was her design; stay unmemorable, just out of the "lurk zone" without getting in the spotlight too much. Of course she's in the spotlight now so maybe that didn't pan out so well. But to be honest I didn't completely pick up on a super scummy vibe. I would be OK with a lynch here, but I think that I would rather...
vote: Voltaire again. 1/3 of this is admittedly just to save my ass, as apparently I'm one of the more viable lynches along with him. 1/3 is for the low roll (again, applies equally well to me), which I don't think should just be ignored. The other 1/3 is for his seemingly strange behavior: not participating so much until that fact was called out, and then suddenly becoming more "towny" after the fact. From my limited experience this doesn't seem like ordinary town!Voltaire. I'm not 100% on this lynch either, but it's probably the best I've got D1, especially if we're narrowing down to a few viable options.
Now for some "real talk". This is my second game of Mafia, and honestly it might be my last, at least for a while. I'm trying really hard to enjoy this game. I really am. But it seems like to me personally, the reward:effort ratio is not as high as I would have hoped, with perhaps too much emotional angst for my taste as well. It feels more like an obligation than recreation to me right now. And what effort I do put in seems to be rather pointless. My last several "substantial" posts were basically ignored. I feel like a pawn to be judged by the power players--"Oh Walrus made a post, great, he's not lurking too much, that'll do pig"--without really participating in a meaningful way. A lot of this game seems to be about familiarity with the other players, and that's something I just don't possess to the degree that many of you do--hence my focus on "meta" questions and statistics where I actually feel like I could contribute. To be honest I wouldn't be crushed if I were the lynch today, simply because it would free me up. But at the same time I don't want to let down the town by just giving up. So just feel like I'm sort of drifting along here, and I don't know if I have the dedication to put in to become a power player myself.
Should I sub out? Maybe. But I find that to be confusing and weird, so I think I'll stick it through, and maybe my opinion will turn around. Maybe I'm just having a moment of weakness; maybe everybody gets these. I certainly don't want to be a buzzkill here. I'm not trying to drum up some emotional sympathy or anything either; I don't need or want any special treatment. But I did want to express myself so maybe you can understand my mindset a little better.
Trust me, we all have our emotional "I think I'm done with this" moments. I mean, me personally, I'm running into "Mafia is taking over time I could spend with my friends/family" issues since I suddenly have a social life, and Box is clearly in the same boat (did you see the schedule he mentioned having?). Don't forget not to take anything in Mafia personally - both town and scum members will poke and prod you with the goal of getting a reaction in an attempt to either deduce your alignment or in hopes of making you look more mislynch-worthy.
If we're boiling it down to Volt vs Walrus vs EFHW (and why aren't we considering Archetype as well as EFHW, they have the same vote count?), then I'm willing to let Walrus slide to D2 since IIRC his game 1 was a poo game and I'd love to see more new blood in our Mafia games. unvote while I consider alternatives.
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I will not be around much this night, btw, until very late (ie after soft deadline) but I will be around tonight. Please don't hammer me until I can claim, even if the person stating intent to hammer still wants to hammer me afterwards. I will have parting words that I think will help town (that my flip will prove are true). Any hammering without letting me claim should be taken as an admission the hammerer is scum.
We really should lynch EFHW. Walrus seems to be too easy of a wagon, EFHW is blending in perfectly, just re-read at her, look at everyone else, and see what little of an impression there is. That's scum! Seriously, go do it.
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I will not be around much this night, btw, until very late (ie after soft deadline) but I will be around tonight. Please don't hammer me until I can claim, even if the person stating intent to hammer still wants to hammer me afterwards. I will have parting words that I think will help town (that my flip will prove are true). Any hammering without letting me claim should be taken as an admission the hammerer is scum.
We really should lynch EFHW. Walrus seems to be too easy of a wagon, EFHW is blending in perfectly, just re-read at her, look at everyone else, and see what little of an impression there is. That's scum! Seriously, go do it.
I do see what you (and Walrus) mean about EFHW just "blending". I'm actually looking at EFHW vs Archetype and need to review Archetype before I decide.
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EFHW--just did a quick reread. Late to the party, late to roll, seems to blend in pretty well. My reread made her feel scummier than my initial impression, and maybe that was her design; stay unmemorable, just out of the "lurk zone" without getting in the spotlight too much. Of course she's in the spotlight now so maybe that didn't pan out so well. But to be honest I didn't completely pick up on a super scummy vibe. I would be OK with a lynch here, but I think that I would rather...
vote: Voltaire again. 1/3 of this is admittedly just to save my ass, as apparently I'm one of the more viable lynches along with him. 1/3 is for the low roll (again, applies equally well to me), which I don't think should just be ignored. The other 1/3 is for his seemingly strange behavior: not participating so much until that fact was called out, and then suddenly becoming more "towny" after the fact. From my limited experience this doesn't seem like ordinary town!Voltaire. I'm not 100% on this lynch either, but it's probably the best I've got D1, especially if we're narrowing down to a few viable options.
Two things:
1. About myself, I will quote myself:
Yes, as town I put myself in a bad situation. I can start trying, and get called out as scum who didn't try until they got pressure (L-1). I have accused people of this many times! It is not a bad accusation to make. Or I could continue to lurk, potentially lurk out of suspicion, but have done nothing to advance town. So I knew this response would happen, and I am preparing to suffer it because 1. it's deserved 2. it's the only action that leads back to me being a pro-town player.
2. What you say about EFHW is what scum does!
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Alright. Getting down to the soft deadline. It seems like the consensus is closing in on me, Voltaire, and EFHW. So let's focus on those for now.
Walrus--seems like a clever, honest lad. Handsome too. Would not lynch.
EFHW--just did a quick reread. Late to the party, late to roll, seems to blend in pretty well. My reread made her feel scummier than my initial impression, and maybe that was her design; stay unmemorable, just out of the "lurk zone" without getting in the spotlight too much. Of course she's in the spotlight now so maybe that didn't pan out so well. But to be honest I didn't completely pick up on a super scummy vibe. I would be OK with a lynch here, but I think that I would rather...
vote: Voltaire again. 1/3 of this is admittedly just to save my ass, as apparently I'm one of the more viable lynches along with him. 1/3 is for the low roll (again, applies equally well to me), which I don't think should just be ignored. The other 1/3 is for his seemingly strange behavior: not participating so much until that fact was called out, and then suddenly becoming more "towny" after the fact. From my limited experience this doesn't seem like ordinary town!Voltaire. I'm not 100% on this lynch either, but it's probably the best I've got D1, especially if we're narrowing down to a few viable options.
Now for some "real talk". This is my second game of Mafia, and honestly it might be my last, at least for a while. I'm trying really hard to enjoy this game. I really am. But it seems like to me personally, the reward:effort ratio is not as high as I would have hoped, with perhaps too much emotional angst for my taste as well. It feels more like an obligation than recreation to me right now. And what effort I do put in seems to be rather pointless. My last several "substantial" posts were basically ignored. I feel like a pawn to be judged by the power players--"Oh Walrus made a post, great, he's not lurking too much, that'll do pig"--without really participating in a meaningful way. A lot of this game seems to be about familiarity with the other players, and that's something I just don't possess to the degree that many of you do--hence my focus on "meta" questions and statistics where I actually feel like I could contribute. To be honest I wouldn't be crushed if I were the lynch today, simply because it would free me up. But at the same time I don't want to let down the town by just giving up. So just feel like I'm sort of drifting along here, and I don't know if I have the dedication to put in to become a power player myself.
Should I sub out? Maybe. But I find that to be confusing and weird, so I think I'll stick it through, and maybe my opinion will turn around. Maybe I'm just having a moment of weakness; maybe everybody gets these. I certainly don't want to be a buzzkill here. I'm not trying to drum up some emotional sympathy or anything either; I don't need or want any special treatment. But I did want to express myself so maybe you can understand my mindset a little better.
Trust me, we all have our emotional "I think I'm done with this" moments. I mean, me personally, I'm running into "Mafia is taking over time I could spend with my friends/family" issues since I suddenly have a social life, and Box is clearly in the same boat (did you see the schedule he mentioned having?). Don't forget not to take anything in Mafia personally - both town and scum members will poke and prod you with the goal of getting a reaction in an attempt to either deduce your alignment or in hopes of making you look more mislynch-worthy.
If we're boiling it down to Volt vs Walrus vs EFHW (and why aren't we considering Archetype as well as EFHW, they have the same vote count?), then I'm willing to let Walrus slide to D2 since IIRC his game 1 was a poo game and I'd love to see more new blood in our Mafia games. unvote while I consider alternatives.
Wait.. I have a social life?
*cough*
Right, well, I agree with you, Mr. Chairs.
After doing some reads, Archetype seems just as suspicious as EFHW does, if not more so. We should start considering him an option as well, as it is that he is starting to concern me to a small degree.
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The reason I am not as willing to look at Archetype is because his play borders on the "obvscum" that is never actually scum ie he gets mislynched a lot. I'm welcome to cases that prove why this is wrong in this specific instance if someone things they have them.
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Thanks for the kind words chairs. Yeah, I figured everyone must get burned out with this sometimes. I know not to take anything personally in this game, I can handle that. It's the sense of futility that was getting to me.
Alright Voltaire, you've convinced me for now. vote: EFHW instead.
I didn't consider Archetype in my most recent post because it seemed to me at first glance that the case built up around him was pretty flimsy. I'll do a reread on him later though.
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Thanks for the kind words chairs. Yeah, I figured everyone must get burned out with this sometimes. I know not to take anything personally in this game, I can handle that. It's the sense of futility that was getting to me.
Alright Voltaire, you've convinced me for now. vote: EFHW instead.
I didn't consider Archetype in my most recent post because it seemed to me at first glance that the case built up around him was pretty flimsy. I'll do a reread on him later though.
It is pretty flimsy.. But for someone who has DONE MORE LURKING THAN I HAVE.. He seems pretty darn unnoticed.
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Box, who do you actually want to lynch? You've expressed willingness to vote many players. (it's fine if you have several, I do too, I just wonder what your full list is).
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If we're boiling it down to Volt vs Walrus vs EFHW (and why aren't we considering Archetype as well as EFHW, they have the same vote count?), then I'm willing to let Walrus slide to D2 since IIRC his game 1 was a poo game and I'd love to see more new blood in our Mafia games. unvote while I consider alternatives.
I'm pretty sure calling my (and yuma's) game a "poo game," which I take to mean "shit game," is a bit of a low blow, bordering on personal attack (see: Civility Pledge), and off-limits anyway because you the game is ongoing AND you are still alive in it.
I'd ask that you refrain from commenting on ongoing games in this one. If you feel it's a shit game, bring it up afterwards.
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:P
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If we're boiling it down to Volt vs Walrus vs EFHW (and why aren't we considering Archetype as well as EFHW, they have the same vote count?), then I'm willing to let Walrus slide to D2 since IIRC his game 1 was a poo game and I'd love to see more new blood in our Mafia games. unvote while I consider alternatives.
I'm pretty sure calling my (and yuma's) game a "poo game," which I take to mean "shit game," is a bit of a low blow, bordering on personal attack (see: Civility Pledge), and off-limits anyway because you the game is ongoing AND you are still alive in it.
I'd ask that you refrain from commenting on ongoing games in this one. If you feel it's a shit game, bring it up afterwards.
...I was thinking of NewMafia 4, which is over. And I didn't intend to insult the mod(s) of that game (and maybe Walrus wasn't in that game and I'm just thinking of it because Box was?), I think that we as Town just played HORRIBLY that game.
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....yup, confirming Walrus was not in NM4 and it was just Box.
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EFHW re-read (bolded posts are votes):
Posts 1-4: Buffy, rolling
Posts 5-7: the probability argument period
Post 8: calls out Archetype for giving bad advice (playing stored dice)
Post 9: asks what the reward/punishment for Troll battle is
Post 10: calls Voltaire's reads post scummy and insincere
Post 11: Votes for Voltaire. Says she was hesitant at first due to the speed of the wagon, but had town impressions for voters, so joined up.
Post 12: Points out that it is L-2 on Voltaire.
Post 13: 12 minutes later, unvotes and votes for Chairs for a "fishy" vote on Voltaire. Contradicts her Post 11, but points out a chairs contradiction on Voltaire.
Post 14: Thanks ashersky for the extra roll, asks Theorel if he wants X to roll four dice.
Post 15: Votes Archetype for speculations on the towniness of ash and voting for Jorbles. Says the "2" low roll is a null tell.
Post 16: Fluff.
Post 17: Awards Town points to X for his roll beating the Troll.
Posts 18-19: Responses to Theorel and Jorbles when they've discouraged Arch voting. Ties them together a bit.
Post 20: More response to Theo, upset that she's being found scummy for what she thinks Arch is doing but getting a pass for.
Post 21: PPE misuse discussion.
Post 22: Says clearly the number players roll can't be used as an alignment tell. Jorbles gets some credit for giving ashersky the extra roll, doesn't think there is any reason scum would want to give out extra rolls.
Post 23: Upset with ashersky's read on her, plus comparison to Kooshie again
Post 24: Clarifies, wasn't upset. Admits it was her that was uber scum in M&M.
Post 25: Says she can be in thread at soft deadline.
Post 26: Fluff.
Post 27: Points out Theorel played in Innovation similarly, and was scum in Innovation.
Post 28: Agrees with Voltaire who points out scum might give extra rolls to store extra dice.
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EFHW re-read analysis.
I would not call her a lurker, or an acti-lurker. She has voted, she has made some statements on specific people. Those are important if she flips at some point. None of her interactions rule anyone out as a partner if she is scum. None of them make me think she is particularly scummy either.
I think the Voltaire/Chairs votes are a towny exchange, honestly. Scum would be more careful in casting that first vote on growing wagon, and then the immediate flip off of it again. I don't think the chairs contradiction is getting enough looks, but maybe it wasn't as big as it seemed at the time? Worth a re-read.
She is inconsistent in her own opinion on the value of rolls, though. Posts 14 and 17 are "town positive" in reaction to rolls, while Post 15 (in between those) she says the low roll is a null tell. By Post 22, she's decided she can't trust rolls at all. Is this is a scummy thing? I lean no, given we were all discussing the values and ramifications of weighing the rolls.
Hasn't done much in the last 6 posts, though. No one replied to the Theo in Innovation thing, I noticed.
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Box, who do you actually want to lynch? You've expressed willingness to vote many players. (it's fine if you have several, I do too, I just wonder what your full list is).
Here is my list of willingness to vote on, in no particular order:
You, i.e., Voltaire
Archetype
EFHW
Ashersky
That's pretty much all.
A lot of my opinions are influenced by what other people have said, but I have done my own studying.
Currently, I'm more aimed towards you and Archetype. Ashersky has a lotta town cred at the moment, but I'm still suspicious of him. I'm merely cautious of EFHW.
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If we're boiling it down to Volt vs Walrus vs EFHW (and why aren't we considering Archetype as well as EFHW, they have the same vote count?), then I'm willing to let Walrus slide to D2 since IIRC his game 1 was a poo game and I'd love to see more new blood in our Mafia games. unvote while I consider alternatives.
I'm pretty sure calling my (and yuma's) game a "poo game," which I take to mean "shit game," is a bit of a low blow, bordering on personal attack (see: Civility Pledge), and off-limits anyway because you the game is ongoing AND you are still alive in it.
I'd ask that you refrain from commenting on ongoing games in this one. If you feel it's a shit game, bring it up afterwards.
...I was thinking of NewMafia 4, which is over. And I didn't intend to insult the mod(s) of that game (and maybe Walrus wasn't in that game and I'm just thinking of it because Box was?), I think that we as Town just played HORRIBLY that game.
Yeah, it really was bad. At the moment, I feel like I did a really trashy job, and didn't have a single serious post.
Which is a bit of a turnover into this game, but I feel like I've done a decent job so far over here.
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Archetype Reread (bolded posts are votes):
Post 1: RVS votes for Xeiron
Posts 2-3: flavor claim stuff
Post 4: Gravity Falls, plus anti-dice rolling discussion
Post 5: Plays a 6
Post 6: clarifies that now he's fine with roll theory, but not storage theory
Post 7: hedges on ashersky-BoxofDOG argument; says he thinks he knows why ashersky is doing it; mentions some dice rolling stuff, including don't always roll 3 dice, maybe just 2 or 1 or use stored ones instead
Post 8: agrees with Theo's clarification
Post 9: clarifise that RVS vote was RVS
Post 10: 3 scum knowledge is not a scumslip.
Post 11: Townpoints for ashersky's extra roll. Thinks odds that it is a scum gambit are slim. Votes for Jorbles for not being active in thread to make up for the bad roll.
Post 12: Disagrees with EFHW giving Xeiron town points for his roll beating the Troll, since he was on the spot and had to anyway.
Post 13: Hedges on the meaning of low rolls. Says will suspect 2 low rolls in a row.
Post 14: Agrees that lynching solely for low rolls is bad. Clarifies that Jorbles vote is for how Jorbles has played since the low roll.
Post 15: Unvotes after Jorbles claims. Big town read on ashersky.
Post 16: Votes boxofDOG for lurking.
Post 17: Defends Jorbles for giving away the number of dice ashersky rolled as a mistake, not a scum play. Reiterates Jorbles should not be lynched today.
Post 18: Thinks there is no reason to hurry the lynch to avoid scum messing with the roll totals. Has no trouble with EFHW/Kooshie problem.
Post 19: More EFHW/Kooshie. Okay with soft deadline.
Post 20: Actually, party on soft deadline night.
Post 21: Says he'll reread PPS.
Post 22: Actually does, provides analysis. Ends up with a slight townvibe.
Post 23: popsquiz
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Archetype analysis:
I think he's probably had less content than EFHW, but that PPS reread saves him. That was useful. He has not given much else in the way of verifiable reads, so he's in a good spot if he's scum and lynched because we can't really tie him to anyone else. He's given some towncred out freely, though.
He was a bit misleading or mistaken on roll theory with the saved dice. That's a bit off, but I don't think it's out of the ordinary for Arch. Overall, he reads like regular town Arch to me.
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Vote Count 1.9
Voltaire (3): Jorbles, BoxOfDog, xeiron
Archetype (2): EFHW, Eevee
WalrusMcFishSr (2): faust, pingpongsam
BoxOfDog (1): Archetype
EFHW (3): Voltaire, theorel, WalrusMcFishSr
not voting (2): ashersky, chairs
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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Heading out now, so if the soft deadline is still a-go I won't be online during it.
Since BoD probably won't be lynched, I'll switch to Vote: EFHW.
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:P
vote: voltaire
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Heading out now, so if the soft deadline is still a-go I won't be online during it.
Since BoD probably won't be lynched, I'll switch to Vote: EFHW.
If I don't get killed during the night, there'll probably end up being a Boxed Lunch at some point.. A sad fact.
Ah, well. Unless there is some sort of major event happening, I'll keep riding the Voltaire wagon.
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not a big crowd, I see.
ashersky was that a real vote on Voltaire?
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I'm not sure why there's a wagon on me, but it's Day 1 and I've been pretty disengaged, I guess.
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vote: voltaire. Call it self-preservation. I know I'm town. Interested to see how the people not on me or voltaire react.
I'll keep checking in, but I guess the soft deadline is a bust?
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not a big crowd, I see.
ashersky was that a real vote on Voltaire?
It was bolded and in the correct syntax, so yes.
Also, dick move to encourage uncivil play aimed directly at me/yuma. (The fact that it turns out chairs was referring to another game came AFTER the FU icon.)
Also, of the main viable wagons, I prefer a Voltaire to you pending a re-read of Voltaire.
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not a big crowd, I see.
ashersky was that a real vote on Voltaire?
It was bolded and in the correct syntax, so yes.
Also, dick move to encourage uncivil play aimed directly at me/yuma. (The fact that it turns out chairs was referring to another game came AFTER the FU icon.)
Also, of the main viable wagons, I prefer a Voltaire to you pending a re-read of Voltaire.
very confused. Did I encourage uncivil play? What FU icon?
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not a big crowd, I see.
ashersky was that a real vote on Voltaire?
It was bolded and in the correct syntax, so yes.
Also, dick move to encourage uncivil play aimed directly at me/yuma. (The fact that it turns out chairs was referring to another game came AFTER the FU icon.)
Also, of the main viable wagons, I prefer a Voltaire to you pending a re-read of Voltaire.
very confused. Did I encourage uncivil play? What FU icon?
No, why? You asked if my vote was real on Voltaire. I explained why it was. I wasn't talking about you.
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ashersky's helpful summary of archetypes posts doesn't make me drop my suspicion. I'm sorry for being boring, but he continues to be my top suspect. not egregiously scummy, tries to do towny things but hasn't convinced me. people aren't jumping all over the lynch, which makes it more likely he is mafia.
I will move my vote if this never catches wind and my vote is needed to get a lynch or if I have a preference between two candidates when it comes to that.
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Also, dick move to encourage uncivil play aimed directly at me/yuma. (The fact that it turns out chairs was referring to another game came AFTER the FU icon.)
It wasn't aimed at you and yuma, it was aimed at you. I found it more than a little silly for someone whose playstyle involves intentional threats to: break rules, get emotional reactions out of players (and already in this game implying others were calling you fucking idiots who should be shot in the head), and so on. I know you are not actually a jerk and this is the way that you play the game, and you claim to get reads out of this sort of thing. If we're playing to the same win condition, then on my good days I'm fine with that.
On my bad days it makes me want to /out as I don't find it fun to play in a game where that sort of behavior is acceptable.
I was somewhere closer to one of my bad days yesterday with the :P.
As far as this game goes, can we get a vote count?
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I see there was one recently. 5 on me, 4 on EFHW I believe.
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I'm not sure why there's a wagon on me, but it's Day 1 and I've been pretty disengaged, I guess.
It's the not-a-defense defense! Scuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuum (I think!)
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I'm not sure why there's a wagon on me, but it's Day 1 and I've been pretty disengaged, I guess.
It's the not-a-defense defense! Scuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuum (I think!)
That's because of the not-a-case case.
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That's because of the not-a-case case.
And the trying-to-downplay-the-case-on-yourself-by-claiming-it's-nonexistant!
Case on you is
1. blending in
2. middling postcount
3. D1 POE
There are never slam-dunk cases on D1. When there are, they're usually on town. I'm happy with this.
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Warning - Pure Speculation Follows:
IF the Troll defeat reward of Heal means we get to revive a mis-lynched Townie at the end of the day it would be wise to vote the wagon that I perceive to be on a Townie. This effectively creates an IC.
BIG IF.
I don't know what to make of either wagon but IF it were revealed to me that one was definitely scum while the other was definitely town I would vote EFHW. Otherwise, I think we are looking at 2 Town wagons. That the Voltaire wagon still consists of some of the later members of the original push makes me feel certain that scum has stayed there. I also think it likely scum is split on the wagons.
/pure speculation
Still liking my Walrus vote but feeling like I should switch to a wagon to help end the day. Very reticent to vote where reasons suggests it results in a Town death.
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Warning - Pure Speculation Follows:
IF the Troll defeat reward of Heal means we get to revive a mis-lynched Townie at the end of the day it would be wise to vote the wagon that I perceive to be on a Townie. This effectively creates an IC.
BIG IF.
I don't know what to make of either wagon but IF it were revealed to me that one was definitely scum while the other was definitely town I would vote EFHW. Otherwise, I think we are looking at 2 Town wagons. That the Voltaire wagon still consists of some of the later members of the original push makes me feel certain that scum has stayed there. I also think it likely scum is split on the wagons.
/pure speculation
Still liking my Walrus vote but feeling like I should switch to a wagon to help end the day. Very reticent to vote where reasons suggests it results in a Town death.
I think that's far too big a leap to make about Heal, especially when scum might send us to defeat at the 11th hour. But I guess that is a good though - what could "heal" mean anyway?
If you think both of us are town, and there's scum on my wagon, start a wagon up on someone else! We always have time to lynch scum. Personally it's been hard to tell if I think there's scum on my wagon as it's had some of my town reads/off-the-tables for awhile. You've inspired me to go back and look at it though.
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Sorry I wasn't on for the soft deadline. Are we looking at volt versus EFHW? I think out off these options I prefer EFHW. Bout voting until I see a clue count though.
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Heal could be a x-shot doc somehow entering the game.
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or the undoing of an nk.
I can't answer the arguments against me. Yes I have a middling post count (and a middling roll). I don't know about blending in particularly, but there isn't much to say about that either. POE, I don't see how enough people could be ruled out by now to POE anyone.
I think Theorel spun a couple things as scummy, and it was easy for others to follow him. It being early day 1, I was using votes more lightly than I might otherwise -- just as many people do at that point. Theorel feels scummy to me for his focus on me, but it could be OMGUS on my part, so I'm biding my time. I'm a bad choice for lynching and I wish I could offer up a better one.
Is anyone else getting any kind of scummy vibe about Theorel?
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Sorry I wasn't on for the soft deadline. Are we looking at volt versus EFHW? I think out off these options I prefer EFHW. Bout voting until I see a clue count though.
based on what, exactly?
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Heading out now, so if the soft deadline is still a-go I won't be online during it.
Since BoD probably won't be lynched, I'll switch to Vote: EFHW.
You're not saying why either. Lots of sheeping going on here.
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POE, I don't see how enough people could be ruled out by now to POE anyone.
That's what I said D1 POE, which is different. ie for me it means no ash or theorel (top posters) and no Jorbles (claim). Add in "no me" and I'm left with a much smaller lynch pool, of which I find you the scummiest (see other reasons).
Is anyone else getting any kind of scummy vibe about Theorel?
The tiniest of ones. Not enough to make me nervous at all today. If he's scum he'll be catchable later.
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Theorel led the charge on Voltaire, when that defused he led the charge on EFHW. There is a wake of wagons behind theorel.
I don't know if I interpret that as scum controlling the game or scum using theorel's leads to control the game.
Either way, I find the wagons scummy and theorel has appeared on both.
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Either way, I find the wagons scummy and theorel has appeared on both.
..Why?
Wagons is just a small amount of people agreeing with eachother.
Do you really think it's that small of a chance for 5-6 people to agree with eachother on one suspicion or opinion?
I don't.
I don't find wagons scummy in the slightest, unless one of them has a completely invalid reason.
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There is a wake of wagons behind theorel.
This is pretty unusual historically. Usually there's a wake of people ignoring my arguments behind me...although I did start a wagon on scum in MXXX.
I don't find the wagons scummy. Wagons have to happen for the game to move forward. Specific people on the wagons might be scummy. Also, there is not always time to start a new wagon. This day ends tomorrow at noon one way or another.
Currently Voltaire is at 5, efhw at 4.
on Voltaire we have: Jorbles, ashersky, xeiron, Box, and efhw
on efhw we have: Voltaire, myself, walrus, and archetype.
I like Voltaire's wagon better, I think efhw is more likely to flip scum. Hmm...I'll think on it.
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I like Voltaire's wagon better, I think efhw is more likely to flip scum.
What do you mean by this?
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Either way, I find the wagons scummy and theorel has appeared on both.
..Why?
Wagons is just a small amount of people agreeing with eachother.
Do you really think it's that small of a chance for 5-6 people to agree with eachother on one suspicion or opinion?
I don't.
I don't find wagons scummy in the slightest, unless one of them has a completely invalid reason.
I don't find the existence of a wagon in general scummy. There are attributes of these particular wagons I find scummy. I have outlined them already but I'll reiterate the more cogent points.
Voltaire's wagon went to L-1 very suddenly. That is scummy. The majority of players who facilitated that are still present on the wagon thus I find the wagon scummy.
EFHW's wagon has been brought about by manufactured consent. The only one on the wagon who wasn't "guided by voices" was Voltaire. Voltaire made an analysis against her and the wagon lined up without much argument or any adding their own wood to the fire other than a vote. theorel headed both such wagons up. I suspect both wagons to be made on Town and scum is currently split between them. I would be taking a hard look at anyone who comes off one to facilitate the other.
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I think EFHW's wagon is scummier than Voltaire's. Not quite sure which of the two individuals is more likely to flip scum, current thinking is Voltaire.
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I don't find the existence of a wagon in general scummy. There are attributes of these particular wagons I find scummy. I have outlined them already but I'll reiterate the more cogent points.
Voltaire's wagon went to L-1 very suddenly. That is scummy. The majority of players who facilitated that are still present on the wagon thus I find the wagon scummy.
EFHW's wagon has been brought about by manufactured consent. The only one on the wagon who wasn't "guided by voices" was Voltaire. Voltaire made an analysis against her and the wagon lined up without much argument or any adding their own wood to the fire other than a vote. theorel headed both such wagons up. I suspect both wagons to be made on Town and scum is currently split between them. I would be taking a hard look at anyone who comes off one to facilitate the other.
Can you be specific about who these people are?
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pps: if you think that Voltaire and EFHW are both town, then where do you suggest we look next? Archetype? Or do you think Walrus's emotional moment was a ploy to play on the heartstrings of both Box and myself (since we're both somewhat emotional players and could understand his frustration) in an attempt to remove himself from the potential for D1 lynching?
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I like Voltaire's wagon better, I think efhw is more likely to flip scum.
What do you mean by this?
I mean I find the people on your wagon townier than the people on efhw's wagon.
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You know what.
This whole fricken' time, I've found Voltaire and EFHW less scummy than most other players.
I don't even care about those two votes anymore, because all the votes on them seem so flawed.
vote: Archetype
Both players have actually made sincere, understandable, and more reasonable defenses, and people completely look over them, saying,
"I can imagine scum saying that."
I can too! But I don't think where those things are said are in the right place, or at the right time, for them to be scum.
I've been wagon jumping this whole time.
What I think is manufactured is Archetype's defense. It has so many holes in it, and I can't believe I haven't already voted for him.
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All aboard the Archetype wagon!
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All aboard the Archetype wagon!
Toot toot?
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All aboard the Archetype wagon!
Sh, Fuzzy.
You're ruining the moment.
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All aboard the Archetype wagon!
How has he been different from his normal town self?
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All aboard the Archetype wagon!
How has he been different from his normal town self?
A lot of it is something I can't explain, him feeling off and PoE. I admit I've been wrong about Archetype before. The fact that the wagon didn't pick up despite me voting at a time where there was sort of a lull in that department made me feel more confident in it. Also, and I hate to say this because of the ramifications, rereads like he gave to PPS are a great way to gain town-cred and avoid being lynched day 1. I think scum Archetype is more likely to be concerned about such a thing. Lastly, his defenses have not felt genuine to me, he hasn't managed to appeal to my emotional side.
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All aboard the Archetype wagon!
How has he been different from his normal town self?
Has his normal town self been pointing out the flaws in other people within the game, and then making no effort to defend himself?
Then someone else defends him, and that defense has numerous holes in it, and he completely okays it?
Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
Archetype's normal town is lurking this entire time, and hypocritically accusing another player of lurking, when he was doing more of it?
His normal town is purposefully trying to blend in, and ending up suspicious?
His normal town scratches the bottom of the barrel for town-cred?
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All aboard the Archetype wagon!
How has he been different from his normal town self?
Has his normal town self been pointing out the flaws in other people within the game, and then making no effort to defend himself?
Then someone else defends him, and that defense has numerous holes in it, and he completely okays it?
Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
Archetype's normal town is lurking this entire time, and hypocritically accusing another player of lurking, when he was doing more of it?
His normal town is purposefully trying to blend in, and ending up suspicious?
His normal town scratches the bottom of the barrel for town-cred?
Well gall-ee! I better unvote right now!
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I have felt like accusations against Archetype have received no attention. Granted, I have to lump myself into this category of ignoring. He has lurked. He has waffled. His reasons are flimsy at best. His substantial posts do feel like attempts for town cred. His votes have seemed innocuous almost as if he wishes to remain out of scrutiny for D2.
I will have to fully reread to feel comfortable placing a vote but the idea isn't immediately obnoxious.
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Hell, let's run this train into the ground.
vote: Archetype.
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All aboard the Archetype wagon!
How has he been different from his normal town self?
Has his normal town self been pointing out the flaws in other people within the game, and then making no effort to defend himself?
Then someone else defends him, and that defense has numerous holes in it, and he completely okays it?
Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
Archetype's normal town is lurking this entire time, and hypocritically accusing another player of lurking, when he was doing more of it?
His normal town is purposefully trying to blend in, and ending up suspicious?
His normal town scratches the bottom of the barrel for town-cred?
Actually the first three of these are how town!Archetype can be sometimes. Lurking too, though I think he is trying to do that less. What is not like town!Arch, iirc, is doing a detailed reread and posting it.
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Archetype pros:
Played a 6... defended low rollers (maybe a scum-protection gambit?)
Argued in favor of Voltaire.
Archetype cons:
Strongly defending ashersky. Who strongly defends anyone when alignments are unknown? Note to self, if Archetype or ashersky flips scum then likely both are scum.
Voted Jorbles completely recanted on claim.
Accused BoD of lurking when he is fairly lurky himself.
Has been noted by multiple players too diverse to all be scum as being kind of sketchy.
Is on the EFHW wagon which I think is a trap.
Vote: Archetype
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Archetype is L-2 if my count is correct.
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Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
I just re-readh Arch, and he did not randomly vote EFHW. He had stated that she and you were his favorite lynches prior to switching.
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Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
I just re-readh Arch, and he did not randomly vote EFHW. He had stated that she and you were his favorite lynches prior to switching.
He randomly voted for me.
He never explained why I was in his top lynches, which I think most of us can agree, an explanation is nice.
And then he switches his vote to EFHW, just because he didn't think a Boxed Lunch was going to go through.
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Strongly defending ashersky. Who strongly defends anyone when alignments are unknown? Note to self, if Archetype or ashersky flips scum then likely both are scum.
Where does he do this? I am re-reading him right now and I don't see it.
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Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
I just re-readh Arch, and he did not randomly vote EFHW. He had stated that she and you were his favorite lynches prior to switching.
He randomly voted for me.
He never explained why I was in his top lynches, which I think most of us can agree, an explanation is nice.
And then he switches his vote to EFHW, just because he didn't think a Boxed Lunch was going to go through.
He didn't randomly vote you. He explained why. You may disagree with the reason or think it bad, but he did give one.
I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
Archetype (empty posts)
I really think you should doublecheck this.
I am still trying to decide what I think about Arch. I am nervous that I am seeing slightly distorted cases made on him.
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Strongly defending ashersky. Who strongly defends anyone when alignments are unknown? Note to self, if Archetype or ashersky flips scum then likely both are scum.
These kind of statements have a great track record of being wrong.
I agree it would make me suspect ashersky more, but scum defends townies for town cred and town defends scum because they are mistaken all the time. Like, way more often than scum defends scum to save his partner.
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Vote Count 1.10
Voltaire (4): Jorbles, xeiron, ashersky, EFHW
Archetype (4): Eevee, BoxOfDOG, chairs, pingpongsam
WalrusMcFishSr (1): faust
EFHW (4): Voltaire, theorel, WalrusMcFishSr, Archetype
not voting (0):
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
I just re-readh Arch, and he did not randomly vote EFHW. He had stated that she and you were his favorite lynches prior to switching.
He randomly voted for me.
He never explained why I was in his top lynches, which I think most of us can agree, an explanation is nice.
And then he switches his vote to EFHW, just because he didn't think a Boxed Lunch was going to go through.
He didn't randomly vote you. He explained why. You may disagree with the reason or think it bad, but he did give one.
I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
Archetype (empty posts)
I really think you should doublecheck this.
I am still trying to decide what I think about Arch. I am nervous that I am seeing slightly distorted cases made on him.
Yeah, what you said 'May think it was bad'
"Someone hardcore lurking"
Even though he was actually lurking, more than I was.
It's not only a bad reason, but hardly even a reason at all.
That's random voting, for sure.
And some of the cases against him (Recently) are distorted. Which would worry me as well, but I'm feeling a bit too confident about this case now.
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Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
I just re-readh Arch, and he did not randomly vote EFHW. He had stated that she and you were his favorite lynches prior to switching.
He randomly voted for me.
He never explained why I was in his top lynches, which I think most of us can agree, an explanation is nice.
And then he switches his vote to EFHW, just because he didn't think a Boxed Lunch was going to go through.
You're in my top three lynches because I've seen nothing meaningful discussion wise in your posts. So if people are going to lynch me for little contribution, at least compare it to BoD.
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I think ashersky is town because I have a townread on him. I'm always confident in my reads.
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POST COUNT
85 theorel
82 ashersky
69 Voltaire
55 pingpongsam
45 BoxOfDog
37 EFHW
37 Eevee
36 chairs
28 Jorbles
28 faust
24 Archetype
21 Walrus
21 xeiron
xeiron/Walrus/faust/Jorbles, get in here.
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Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
I just re-readh Arch, and he did not randomly vote EFHW. He had stated that she and you were his favorite lynches prior to switching.
I don't know how to get the post numbers from the print version which I use to reread. I know on at least 3 occasions he makes a point to paint ashersky as being Town even placing the 85% number on his certainty.
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Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
I just re-readh Arch, and he did not randomly vote EFHW. He had stated that she and you were his favorite lynches prior to switching.
I don't know how to get the post numbers from the print version which I use to reread. I know on at least 3 occasions he makes a point to paint ashersky as being Town even placing the 85% number on his certainty.
Yes, that was after ashersky rolled his extra die. It was an explained stance with a reason.
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BoD, I think you are hardcore OMGUSing me because expressed a Scum read on you. Not everyone that finds you scummy is instantly scum.
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BoD, I think you are hardcore OMGUSing me because expressed a Scum read on you. Not everyone that finds you scummy is instantly scum.
Wait.
Where did you express a scum read on Box?
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vote:chairs
Stop what you're doing and look at the way he addressed my wagon.
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vote:chairs
Stop what you're doing and look at the way he addressed my wagon.
I have. Tell me why scum does that. But answer my other question first.
Where did you express a scum read on Box?
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BoD, I think you are hardcore OMGUSing me because expressed a Scum read on you. Not everyone that finds you scummy is instantly scum.
Quite frankly, I'm not.
I've stated my reasons for my vote, and I've found you suspicious for a long time.
Again,
What I think is manufactured is Archetype's defense. It has so many holes in it, and I can't believe I haven't already voted for him.
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vote:chairs
Stop what you're doing and look at the way he addressed my wagon.
Do you mean "Hell, let's run this train into the ground"? Because it seems like we're just casting about and it feels like we're all just wagoning onto relatively slight suspicions (which is true, because we dont' have any <i>scumslip</i> or anything to go off of and it's D1 so there's no flip).
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BoD, I think you are hardcore OMGUSing me because expressed a Scum read on you. Not everyone that finds you scummy is instantly scum.
Wait.
Where did you express a scum read on Box?
I never really came out and say it, but he was acti lurking, which is a definite scum trait. I'm glad hes postong now (though horribly wrong) but that was why I'm voting for him. Acti lurking. Scum trait, dcum read.
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vote:chairs
Stop what you're doing and look at the way he addressed my wagon.
Do you mean "Hell, let's run this train into the ground"? Because it seems like we're just casting about and it feels like we're all just wagoning onto relatively slight suspicions (which is true, because we dont' have any <i>scumslip</i> or anything to go off of and it's D1 so there's no flip).
The way you phrased it gave me the impression that you weren't just 'casting about' and intended to get me lynched.
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I never really came out and say it, but he was acti lurking, which is a definite scum trait. I'm glad hes postong now (though horribly wrong) but that was why I'm voting for him. Acti lurking. Scum trait, dcum read.
Can you please explain this post then?
I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
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BoD, I think you are hardcore OMGUSing me because expressed a Scum read on you. Not everyone that finds you scummy is instantly scum.
Wait.
Where did you express a scum read on Box?
I never really came out and say it, but he was acti lurking, which is a definite scum trait. I'm glad hes postong now (though horribly wrong) but that was why I'm voting for him. Acti lurking. Scum trait, dcum read.
You're misusing Acti-lurking. Not even ONE TIME did I get on the forums and not post soon after.
HoS.
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I was under the impression that "acti-lurking" meant to post without content. i.e. you appear active but are lurking.
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I was under the impression that "acti-lurking" meant to post without content. i.e. you appear active but are lurking.
Gragh.
People are constantly confusing me with lingo.
It was said by Voltaire, I believe, that Acti-lurking is being on the forums but not posting. If that's so, then I don't fit the profile.
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vote:chairs
Stop what you're doing and look at the way he addressed my wagon.
Do you mean "Hell, let's run this train into the ground"? Because it seems like we're just casting about and it feels like we're all just wagoning onto relatively slight suspicions (which is true, because we dont' have any <i>scumslip</i> or anything to go off of and it's D1 so there's no flip).
The way you phrased it gave me the impression that you weren't just 'casting about' and intended to get me lynched.
Au contraire, I actually suspect we'll find the wagon on you grinding to a halt, but I think it will be beneficial on D2 to see who's throwing a vote on you for wagon analysis.
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To me acti-lurking is not being very active / not being there to take stances or scumhunt, but being around to comment on issues that are safe and easy to comment on regardless of your alignment.
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To me acti-lurking is not being very active / not being there to take stances or scumhunt, but being around to comment on issues that are safe and easy to comment on regardless of your alignment.
Wow. We really need a re-do on the lingo dictionary.
Lets just have Archetype explain his use of the term, and move off of that.
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Does anyone else see what I am seeing here?
I never really came out and say it, but he was acti lurking, which is a definite scum trait. I'm glad hes postong now (though horribly wrong) but that was why I'm voting for him. Acti lurking. Scum trait, dcum read.
Can you please explain this post then?
I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
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To be clear: based on my reading of Eevee's post, my definition is the same as his. But acti-lurking is rejected as various people as being an actual term. I would never use it myself, largely because it sounds stupid.
I don't really think Archetype is scum, which means he probably is...because I'm terrible at this game.
There are 22.5 hours to deadline. I'm going to go ahead and vote: Voltaire again.
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I never really came out and say it, but he was acti lurking, which is a definite scum trait. I'm glad hes postong now (though horribly wrong) but that was why I'm voting for him. Acti lurking. Scum trait, dcum read.
Can you please explain this post then?
I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
Gladly. I figured you'd pull this up because in that post I didn't come right out and say that I did had a scum read on him. I did have one. When I say might be scum, I was putting an emphasis on their rolls indicating them as scum. But they were posting, which is better than acti lurking. Which Box was doing, so he received a scumread. Since we're looking at metas, I'll defend myself by saying that Town!Arch doesn't vote for someone unless he does have a scumread on them.
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I was under the impression that "acti-lurking" meant to post without content. i.e. you appear active but are lurking.
This is how I define Acti lurking.
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I was under the impression that "acti-lurking" meant to post without content. i.e. you appear active but are lurking.
This is how I define Acti lurking.
And I don't find it stupid. It's a valid scum tactic.
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Does anyone else see what I am seeing here?
I never really came out and say it, but he was acti lurking, which is a definite scum trait. I'm glad hes postong now (though horribly wrong) but that was why I'm voting for him. Acti lurking. Scum trait, dcum read.
Can you please explain this post then?
I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
What exactly do you see..?
I was under the impression that "acti-lurking" meant to post without content. i.e. you appear active but are lurking.
This is how I define Acti lurking.
Assuming that you mean as some sort of cover/ploy to drown suspicion, no.
I literally had nothing to say, about anything that was going on.
None of the subjects early game really caught my attention. I felt like all of them could easily be worked out by people other than me.
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Oh, not the tactic, the term. The term acti-lurking sounds stupid to me. I'd just say they were posting without content.
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I never really came out and say it, but he was acti lurking, which is a definite scum trait. I'm glad hes postong now (though horribly wrong) but that was why I'm voting for him. Acti lurking. Scum trait, dcum read.
Can you please explain this post then?
I'm going to Vote: BoxOfDog. D1, I'd rather lynch someone who is hardcore lurking than someone who might be scum. (A.K.A. Jorbles/Voltaire/Walrus). Their low rolls are, as stated, the main suspicion brought upon them. But at least they are contributing.
Gladly. I figured you'd pull this up because in that post I didn't come right out and say that I did had a scum read on him. I did have one. When I say might be scum, I was putting an emphasis on their rolls indicating them as scum. But they were posting, which is better than acti lurking. Which Box was doing, so he received a scumread. Since we're looking at metas, I'll defend myself by saying that Town!Arch doesn't vote for someone unless he does have a scumread on them.
Cool. That makes sense.
What exactly do you see..?
I saw an opportunity for Arch voters to pile on what I think is simple poor phrasing but could have been spun as a "scumslip". But arch explained himself and you didn't jump at it, so I've learned nothing. Except maybe some town cred for you. If Arch is town.
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...
*turns on the jeopardy tune*
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Cool. That makes sense.
Is this sarcasm?
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Cool. That makes sense.
Is this sarcasm?
No.
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Yeah, okay...that seems pro-town to me. I don't think arch's argument was anything special, so if Volt was scum, he could have kept pushing it on the best alternative wagon. Especially after I dropped the L-2 vote on him. I'm going back to vote: efhw.
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Sorry guys, I'm caught up in a lot of real life stuff recently, and the rest of my attention is focused more on M31.
I see a Walrus lynch isn't happening today. As I still believe that low-rolling is our best indication for scum (or at least less helpful town), I will switch to vote: Voltaire. I don't really get much of the cases on Arch/EFHW. Also, in NMIV, my first game here, an Archetype mislynch was the start of a horrible game for town, so I will be forever biased against lynching him D1.
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Ugh..
You're all gonna feel so dumb if Voltaire flips town -_-
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Chairs Summary:
Tells flavor name because it won't give away his role. Doesn't want to do popcorn dice rolling because of Jimmmmm not always being present and rolls then. Says everyone should roll at least 3 dice. Says there is really no upside to flavor claiming, but no upside barring Flavor Cops that can investigate alignment. Says his supply is small. Plays a 5, apologizes for not snagging a 6. Gives slight townreads on theorel, EFHW, Volt, ashersky, faust, and PPS and slight scum on Eevee and BoxOFDog. Votes Voltaire for finding Jorbles scummy for bad reasons and says that one of Jorbles and Voltaire will gain towncred if the other is scum. Realizes that it was Eevee he had a problem with and mistook it as Voltaire saying it and unvotes. Gives towncred to EFHW for catching him saying that. Says we should punish low rolls because if Mafia helps Town, it should only hurt them. Votes Jorbles to L-2. Once Jorbles claims, he unvotes and says he's off his lynch list. Says Walrus' mega post is weird and votes him.
Says
So then your position is that scum did not, in fact, throw a purposeful low roll in, and that Eevee (as scum) is suggesting we lynch low rollers on principle to get an easily justified mislynch on D1?
Interesting. It's not something I'd expect out of Eevee, but maybe if Eevee got the idea during N0 from another member of the scum team it would be possible. Of course, I'm actually not sure I've ever played with scum!Eevee, so I might be showing untoward positive bias here.
Says Jorbles' claiming of ashersky's stored die was a mistake. Says Volt looks Towny for talking about Eevee, and (re)votes Walrus. Understands Box's situation of not being on a lot, but says it still doesn't help Town. Says Volt was scumhunting and after a prodding by Voltaire gives a list of quotes were Voltaire has forwarded the conversation through theorizing how to beat the monsters. rerevotes Walrus and gives town points to Voltaire, says faust makes good points, and he can't read EFHW. Empathizes with Walrus and unvotes. Says that EFHW and I are both 'blending in' and will go review myself before making a decision. Says in EFHW VS Voltaire he'd rather lynch EFHW.
He says:
pps: if you think that Voltaire and EFHW are both town, then where do you suggest we look next? Archetype? Or do you think Walrus's emotional moment was a ploy to play on the heartstrings of both Box and myself (since we're both somewhat emotional players and could understand his frustration) in an attempt to remove himself from the potential for D1 lynching?
Acknowledges my wagon and then votes. Says he wants to drive my wagon into the ground, but says that he thinks that the wagon on me will grind to a halt and wants to see who's throwing a vote on me for wagon analysis.
My Commentary:
The main problems I have are:
1. Very back and forth on EFHW. Like, willing to go either way.
2. Does a complete 180 on Jorbles after his claim.
3. Tries to throw suspsicion on Eevee, but makes sure to keep his distance.
4. His vote on me and the reasoning for it is ultra scummy
Very happy where my vote is. Didn't realize how scummy chairs was because of how low he flew under the radar.
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I'm almost to the point that I don't care who we lynch so long as it isn't Voltaire or EFHW.
That the tide cannot be changed against either of them screams scum-controlled mislynch to me.
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-snip-
Uuuughh..
The town-cred desperation.. It's.. Thickening.
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-snip-
Uuuughh..
The town-cred desperation.. It's.. Thickening.
What. Dude. I think he's scum. Why wouldn't I reread to see if there is any more dirt I can find?
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Ugh..
You're all gonna feel so dumb if Voltaire flips town -_-
When did you start thinking I'm town?
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-snip-
Uuuughh..
The town-cred desperation.. It's.. Thickening.
What. Dude. I think he's scum. Why wouldn't I reread to see if there is any more dirt I can find?
You're making this massive post about what you've found right and wrong about it, going into unnecessary detail.
You wasted your time.
All we want to know is that you read over what he's said, and you're happy with your vote.
Pushing it a step further than that comes off as desperation.
Ugh..
You're all gonna feel so dumb if Voltaire flips town -_-
When did you start thinking I'm town?
After closely examining your recent posts, then going back a few pages to see what defenses you had made.
I stand by what I said, when I said that your defense, and EFHW's, are stronger than Archtype's.
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That the tide cannot be changed against either of them screams scum-controlled mislynch to me.
Who is controlling these?
Seriously, I'm leaning to believing people that EFHW and Archetype could be town via this but every time someone says this they never say who! Besides, we did this earlier today with myself, Jorbles, and Walrus. If we've somehow cleared 5 townies that's amazing, but then you need to take the next step and vote for one of the remaining 7 players (excluding yourselves).
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I should say I am still happy to have my vote on EFHW right now though.
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You're making this massive post about what you've found right and wrong about it, going into unnecessary detail.
You wasted your time.
All we want to know is that you read over what he's said, and you're happy with your vote.
Pushing it a step further than that comes off as desperation.
That's quite unlike what you said about the PPS Summary.
Wow! Bravo.
I'm legitimately impressed.
Here I am, sitting on my butt watching Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. while you're working hard, cracking down on vague reads!
I feel pretty lazy, but who cares? I'm lazy already.
It seems like we've got all the information we need here, and after doing a small amount of reading myself, I'm going for an intelligent-townie over on pingpong's end.
Like I earlier about you hardcore OMGUSing me, I think you're coming in with the mindset of me being scum, and then finding evidence to prove your read when it should really be the other way around.
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I had some technical problems around soft deadline, so I couldn't be around.
I see that Archetype has become a lynch candidate, and while I believe he has a decent chance of flipping scum, I have some problems with lynching him because he rolled a 6. I have said somethings about lynching low-rollers:
I am in favor of lynching a low roller.
Here are some advantages with such a lynch. some or all of these have already been mentioned, but I put them here for the sake of completeness.
1. Low rollers may be mafia who stored their highest die, and played low one.
2. Low rollers may be mafia who have rolled only one die, in order to keep their supply high.
3. They may have been unlucky, and only gotten low rolls. If so, that's a null-tell, as mafia and town player has the same chance of rolling low.
4. If they are Mafia, chances are they have good die stored, making them them the most important mafia player to get rid of.
5. If they are Town, chances are they do not have good die stored, making them them a less bad mis-lynch.
6. Lynching low rollers encourage scum to help fight future monsters.
I have not yet decided who to vote for.
The opposite can be said about lynching high-rollers.
My guess is that mafia would prefer to play a 4 or 5 over a 6. If we assume this, then
1. Arcetype has lower probability of being scum, since he is town in the cases he rolled a 4 or 5.
2. scum! Archetype probably has a low number stored.
Town! Archetype, on the other hand, have better chances to have a high number stored than all others that did not play a 6.
Also lynching top rollers is not encouraging scum to help fight future monsters.
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vote: EFHW
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Who is controlling these?
Seriously, I'm leaning to believing people that EFHW and Archetype could be town via this but every time someone says this they never say who! Besides, we did this earlier today with myself, Jorbles, and Walrus. If we've somehow cleared 5 townies that's amazing, but then you need to take the next step and vote for one of the remaining 7 players (excluding yourselves).
theorel is the most logical conclusion with walrus sheeping him and xeiron playing the pre-hammer. I already voted walrus as did others. That died on the vine. You think there is anyone who is going to join a theorel wagon? also, I have learned that it is ludricous to think I can detect scum-team/pairs on D1 or even D2 so I feel really dumb even answering the question but you did ask I have put my deepest suspicion on the table for everyone's amusement.
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VOTING HISTORY
Just something for me and others to stare at. Every vote that's ever been cast today.
ashersky (3): BoxOfDOG, Voltaire, xeiron
Archetype (5): BoxOfDOG, chairs, Eevee, EFHW, pingpongsam
BoxOfDOG (3): ashersky, Archetype, faust
chairs (2): Archetype, EFHW
Eevee (0):
EFHW (4): Archetype, theorel, Voltaire, Walrus, xeiron
faust (1): Walrus
Jorbles (5): Archetype, chairs, faust, Voltaire, Walrus
pingpongsam (0):
xeiron (2): Archetype, faust
Voltaire (10): ashersky, chairs, BoxOfDOG, EFHW, faust, Jorbles, pingpongsam, theorel, Walrus, xeiron
Walrus (4): chairs, faust, pingpongsam, Voltaire
xeiron (1): pingpongsam
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Previous post left off theorel and had xeiron twice.
VOTING HISTORY
Just something for me and others to stare at. Every vote that's ever been cast today.
ashersky (3): BoxOfDOG, Voltaire, xeiron
Archetype (5): BoxOfDOG, chairs, Eevee, EFHW, pingpongsam
BoxOfDOG (3): ashersky, Archetype, faust
chairs (2): Archetype, EFHW
Eevee (0):
EFHW (4): Archetype, theorel, Voltaire, Walrus, xeiron
faust (1): Walrus
Jorbles (5): Archetype, chairs, faust, Voltaire, Walrus
pingpongsam (0):
theorel (0):
xeiron (3): Archetype, faust, pingpongsam
Voltaire (10): ashersky, chairs, BoxOfDOG, EFHW, faust, Jorbles, pingpongsam, theorel, Walrus, xeiron
Walrus (4): chairs, faust, pingpongsam, Voltaire
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vote: EFHW
The Voltaire wagon has has been standing still around 4-5 votes for a long time now, so I think it is time to move my vote as we is nearing deadline.
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Who is controlling these?
Seriously, I'm leaning to believing people that EFHW and Archetype could be town via this but every time someone says this they never say who! Besides, we did this earlier today with myself, Jorbles, and Walrus. If we've somehow cleared 5 townies that's amazing, but then you need to take the next step and vote for one of the remaining 7 players (excluding yourselves).
theorel is the most logical conclusion with walrus sheeping him and xeiron playing the pre-hammer. I already voted walrus as did others. That died on the vine. You think there is anyone who is going to join a theorel wagon?
I don't disagree with this necessarily, but I don't want to lynch theorel today. He did lots of pro-town stuff with dice talk and all that. I think we can read him better with all of his posts and a flip. Something also made him re-roll. I could totally see the scum power "you may swap out a played die with a stored die" or something, and he could "frame" himself as having been targeted by scum so to speak.
Or scum could have made a clearly town player re-roll.
Which is why I don't want to lynch today.
I want to re-read Walrus too. Comfortable letting this EFHW wagon percolate though. btw she has 5 unique people voting for her, previous post has that as an error. Just didn't want to post the whole chart again.
You know who has been voting for a lot of people? faust.
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Which is why I don't want to lynch theorel today.
fixed
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You're making this massive post about what you've found right and wrong about it, going into unnecessary detail.
You wasted your time.
All we want to know is that you read over what he's said, and you're happy with your vote.
Pushing it a step further than that comes off as desperation.
That's quite unlike what you said about the PPS Summary.
Wow! Bravo.
I'm legitimately impressed.
Here I am, sitting on my butt watching Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. while you're working hard, cracking down on vague reads!
I feel pretty lazy, but who cares? I'm lazy already.
It seems like we've got all the information we need here, and after doing a small amount of reading myself, I'm going for an intelligent-townie over on pingpong's end.
Like I earlier about you hardcore OMGUSing me, I think you're coming in with the mindset of me being scum, and then finding evidence to prove your read when it should really be the other way around.
Pps, made a really small post.
And that quote was actually AFTER you voted for me. It confirms nothing about "OMGUSing"
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I didn't consider Archetype in my most recent post because it seemed to me at first glance that the case built up around him was pretty flimsy. I'll do a reread on him later though.
Are you finished with your Arch re-read yet? Anything to say?
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I have moved my vote an uncomfortable amount for me. I think my meta is typically to pick a vote and doggedly stick to it.
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I have moved my vote an uncomfortable amount for me. I think my meta is typically to pick a vote and doggedly stick to it.
I find lots of votes to be pro-town, in a vacuum.
Vote Count 1.Voltaire
Voltaire (4): Jorbles, ashersky, EFHW, faust
Archetype (4): Eevee, BoxOfDOG, chairs, pingpongsam
EFHW (4): Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr, theorel, xeiron
chairs (1): Archetype
not voting (0):
Archetype, I doubt chairs is a viable lynch today. I will not be voting for him. Unless you can get others to switch right now, I highly recommend moving your vote.
Walrus, are you still happy with your vote on me? Are you even here?
Lots of people not around right now (ash gets a pass because time zone) and haven't been for awhile. I called them out before. faust, Walrus, Jorbles. xeiron showed up and voted for someone viable.
faust, are you voting for me only because I am the viable wagon you don't think is town, or because you think I'm scum?
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Walrus, are you still happy with your vote on me? Are you even here?
Clearly I was looking at an old post of yours. But the second part of my question stands.
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I noted that only Arch and Eevee never cast a vote on Voltaire. I also noted that Eevee has cast only one vote.
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Hey I'm here, but on my phone until deadline most likely. I'm fine with my vote where it is, although I can't say I'm ultra confident about it.
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We are in serious danger of stalling out.
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What is not like town!Arch, iirc, is doing a detailed reread and posting it.
Arch, what's your reply to this?
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I guess I'll have to go after chairs tomorrow.
Vote: EFHW
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What is not like town!Arch, iirc, is doing a detailed reread and posting it.
Arch, what's your reply to this?
This really isn't Arch!Arch at all. Or, anything I'd usually do regardless of alignment. The only reason I did it here was because the game was small enough and little discussion for me to ctrl+f the entire thread. It helps, but I can really only do it if I have the time and it doesn't take too long, which is the case here.
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Think I'm pretty ok with my EFHW vote. If this ends up on town, those who are avoiding moving anything, you know who you are. I know who you are. It's too late to do anything about it.
L-2 on EFHW. Everyone who has ever voted for her is currently voting for her.
Jorbles, ashersky, faust, Eevee, BoxOfDOG, chairs, pingpongsam: 2 of you need to vote for EFHW for this to happen.
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Think I'm pretty ok with my EFHW vote. If this ends up on town, those who are avoiding moving anything, you know who you are. I know who you are. It's too late to do anything about it.
L-2 on EFHW. Everyone who has ever voted for her is currently voting for her.
Jorbles, ashersky, faust, Eevee, BoxOfDOG, chairs, pingpongsam: 2 of you need to vote for EFHW for this to happen.
I'm not one of the two.
I'm tired of wagon jumping, so I'm stickin' right here.
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...
I don't really think Archetype is scum, which means he probably is...because I'm terrible at this game.
...
So what's this about? AtE?
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I am not scum. I will not be around at deadline. I'm kind of tired out from M31 and Survivor, so I've been less engaged in this game than I usually am - and I almost never play 2 games at once. Unvote. My only scum read right now is Theorel, so unless that wagon is going to take off, I'd advise looking at lurkers for a lynch that might actually be scum. xeiron, walrus, faust. I'll vote: Walrus based on memory, and if I get a chance I'll reread the whole thread. But really, guys. Garden path here.
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Ugh..
You're all gonna feel so dumb if Voltaire flips town -_-
Scum says things like this.
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vote: EFHW
The Voltaire wagon has has been standing still around 4-5 votes for a long time now, so I think it is time to move my vote as we is nearing deadline.
Or he's scum on whom his partners won't join.
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Ugh..
You're all gonna feel so dumb if Voltaire flips town -_-
Scum says things like this.
A Box lynch feels so easy though. This post by him also set off crazy red flags.
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Ugh..
You're all gonna feel so dumb if Voltaire flips town -_-
Scum says things like this.
A Box lynch feels so easy though. This post by him also set off crazy red flags.
The "I knew he was town, told you so" thing is something scum can do, since they know who is town.
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The "I knew he was town, told you so" thing is something scum can do, since they know who is town.
Yes yes I completely agree. My concern is that if he's not scum scum will happily pile on with great cover. Kinda sorta like a scumslip situation. But I would not be opposed to his lynch and might vote for him if it became viable. That post by him is not the only suspicious thing I've seen.
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Vote Count 1.11
Voltaire (3): Jorbles, ashersky, faust
Archetype (4): Eevee, BoxOfDog, chairs, pingpongsam
EFHW (5): Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr, theorel, xeiron, Archetype (L-2)
WalrusMcFishSr (1): EFHW
not voting (0):
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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Been absent since my last post. I thought surely this thing was moving somewhere and I was missing some kind of amazing action.
The current wagon choice appears to be Archetype or EFHW.
In these situations I have to myself, "Self, assume both are Town and you must lynch one, who is the asset you least wish to lose?"
If EFHW really is not committed to good play moving forward she may be the best mislynch.
While I am torn I remain secure on the Archetype wagon as the EFHW wagon may well have every single scum member on it and Archetype may well be one of those.
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In these situations I have to myself, "Self, assume both are Town and you must lynch one, who is the asset you least wish to lose?"
If EFHW really is not committed to good play moving forward she may be the best mislynch.
While I am torn I remain secure on the Archetype wagon as the EFHW wagon may well have every single scum member on it and Archetype may well be one of those.
You may need to switch so a lynch goes through.
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15.5 hours for you all. Here is Aus that deadline is ridiculous, so I won't be here. I guess zjimmmmm is setting an alarm for 3 a.m.
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
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Do you think we can start a Box wagon?
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Possibly. I see 3 votes possible. Would anyone else join? I'm guess EFHW to save herself, so that's four. Partners don't have a reason to bus here, given lynch rules...we could try.
Vote: BoxofDOG
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
Why?
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Vote: BoxOfDog
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
Why?
Based on my reads, plus same reason your wagon shot up earlier.
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Just in case I don't get back to this before deadline, I'll sheep you guys - a new experience! vote: Box of Dog. If I live, I'll be more present D2.
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
Why?
Based on my reads, plus same reason your wagon shot up earlier.
And the box wagon won't have scum on it? efhw's wagon "shot up"? It's taken days to hit 5 votes...it's not moving anywhere near fast. The box wagon hit 3 votes in an hour...that's shooting up.
I'm off to bed. Probably won't be here in the morning. I like the efhw vote still.
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I'm not sold on the Box lynch, because I think he just kind of stumbles like this based on our prior (completed) game (NewMafia 4). I think he's really just emotional and "saying what he feels" without considering how it paints him in the f.ds ubermeta.
I won't be on past tonight, so vote: EFHW. I think that puts her at L-2.
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I will not be around for the actual deadline. My vote remains on EFHW (who is at L-1 by my count, so I'm not sure which is right).
Unless someone has the power to change the order of the monsters and chooses to use it, tomorrow's monster is the Summoner.
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faust, are you voting for me only because I am the viable wagon you don't think is town, or because you think I'm scum?
It's more the first of these. I think Walrus has higher chance of flipping scum, but his appeal to emotion seems to have worked and noone else wants to lynch him. I guess I could also get behind an EFHW lynch, but I don't remember much of the case against her.
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
Yes, that wagon looks kinda bad. I don't like to vote there.
So I'll switch to vote: BoxOfDOG. If he's scum, great. if he's town, I don't like to keep him around for too long with his erratic behaviour.
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Vote Count 1.12
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Archetype (3): Eevee, BoxOfDog, pingpongsam
EFHW (5): Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr, theorel, xeiron, chairs (L-2)
BoxOfDog (4): ashersky, Archetype, EFHW, faust
not voting (0):
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time (approximately 1.5 hours), or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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EFHW, you're online. Want to claim?
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Are we really seriously this close to stalling out? I expected to wake up and see a bow neatly tied around things.
I could see the reasons behind a BoxOfDog lynch. He certainly has been acti-lurking in my perception, and whether he's town or not his contributions have been sparser and less substantial than average. There's also a couple of things he's said that have given off a scummy vibe.
The main reason I've been skeptical so far is because I went after a megalurker D1 before, and it didn't end up working out. And a lot of BoxOfDog's behavior does read to me as genuine, if a little excitable. Like that most recent comment about "gee I'll be so embarressed if ____ flips town." It's definitely a sentiment that's shared by town. It's probably something most of us wouldn't say outright, because it reads like a classic scumtell. But it seems consistent with Box's personality, and I agree that it seems like too easy of a lynch for scum to pile onto.
But it now seems to be the wagon with the momentum, and there's very little time left, so I'll try vote: BoxOfDog. If you think it's scummy that I'm moving my vote so late, and to a person I just defended, well, I think you're scummy for not being more flexible as we approach the deadline. "No lynch" is a fairly elementary town blunder, if I understand my basic Mafia theory correctly, but I still prefer EFHW or Voltaire.
I'll be awake until deadline but still on my phone.
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EFHW, you're online. Want to claim?
faust, if you vote EFHW and Walrus switches back we can have her at L-1. Is anyone else around?
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It says in the rules that we will lynch someone at deadline even without 7 votes.
The exception is if there is a tie. Then a no-lynch occurs.
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline. If no player has been lynched by the deadline, the player with the most votes is lynched. If there is a tie for most votes, no lynch occurs.
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I am, but I understood there is a majority lynch rule in this game.
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Oh! Then Walrus voted for "No Lynch" by tying us. Super-scummy.
Vote Count 1.Voltaire
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Archetype (2): Eevee, pingpongsam
EFHW (5): Voltaire, WalrusMcFishSr, theorel, xeiron, chairs (L-2)
BoxOfDog (5): ashersky, Archetype, EFHW, faust, BoxOfDog
not voting (0):
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Nope. I put Box of Dog on himself. My bad.
Vote Count 1.Voltaire
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Archetype (3): Eevee, BoxOfDOG, pingpongsam
EFHW (4): Voltaire, theorel, xeiron, chairs
BoxOfDog (5): ashersky, Archetype, EFHW, faust, WalrusMcFishSr
not voting (0):
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
Yes, that wagon looks kinda bad. I don't like to vote there.
So I'll switch to vote: BoxOfDOG. If he's scum, great. if he's town, I don't like to keep him around for too long with his erratic behaviour.
WHY. You did not give a reason.
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I believe lynching Box is a mistake.
His posts seems genuine town to me. Especially his one. I think he would be more careful about revealing information if he had been scum.
Someone who has not yet rolled should wait until we know who all has rolled anyways. Preferrably 2 or 3 people, just so you know if you should consider rolling 4 dice rather than 3 (i.e. how important is it to get a 6?)
I almost completely ignored the rolling strategy section of this giant conversation to spare myself the headache, so just rolled two dice.
Came up with a 5 and 6.
Box is no veteran, and still has some things to learn about this game, but he is playing better than in his last game, and I expect him to be more helpful in the following days.
The fact that he played a 6 makes it even worse to lynch in my eyes.
EFHW is a better target, as I think she might flip scum.
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Walrus, faust, you guys can restore our better lynch if you move.
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Awww jeez! I didn't know about the plurality rule. That's the second time in 2 games I've been confused by that.
Back to vote: EFHW then
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
Yes, that wagon looks kinda bad. I don't like to vote there.
So I'll switch to vote: BoxOfDOG. If he's scum, great. if he's town, I don't like to keep him around for too long with his erratic behaviour.
WHY. You did not give a reason.
People on it: you, Walrus, chairs, theorel, xeiron
People I find scummy: you, Walrus, theorel
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
Yes, that wagon looks kinda bad. I don't like to vote there.
So I'll switch to vote: BoxOfDOG. If he's scum, great. if he's town, I don't like to keep him around for too long with his erratic behaviour.
WHY. You did not give a reason.
People on it: you, Walrus, chairs, theorel, xeiron
People I find scummy: you, Walrus, theorel
But do you really believe BoxOfDOG is scum?
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There must be scum on the EFHW wagon. Not liking it.
Yes, that wagon looks kinda bad. I don't like to vote there.
So I'll switch to vote: BoxOfDOG. If he's scum, great. if he's town, I don't like to keep him around for too long with his erratic behaviour.
WHY. You did not give a reason.
People on it: you, Walrus, chairs, theorel, xeiron
People I find scummy: you, Walrus, theorel
But do you really believe BoxOfDOG is scum?
I don't know. Not so much. More than EFHW though. And my other scum reads don't seem to be viable options.
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I'm here and I'm very torn at this point.
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Vote Count 1.13
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Archetype (3): Eevee, BoxOfDog, pingpongsam
EFHW (5): Voltaire, theorel, xeiron, chairs, WalrusMcFishSr (L-2)
BoxOfDog (4): ashersky, Archetype, EFHW, faust
not voting (0):
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time (approximately 25 minutes), or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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Just woke up. Where the hell is Jorbles?
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I am happy with my vote where it is. If all 3 scum stacked onto EFHW it only takes 2 Town votes to insure her lynch. I feel the Archetype wagon has 3 Townies on it and it refuses to grow. If Archetype were Town this wagon would be the default lynch, right now.
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Vote:EFHW L-1
Box posting a bunch yesterday earns him another day. EFHW said she wouldn't be active until Day 2, but I don't know if that will even happen. Plus, I almoat always find her Towny, except for this time.
Efhw, please claim.
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Vote Count 1.14
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Archetype (3): Eevee, BoxOfDog, pingpongsam
EFHW (6): Voltaire, theorel, xeiron, chairs, WalrusMcFishSr, Archetype (L-1)
BoxOfDog (3): ashersky, EFHW, faust
not voting (0):
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time (approximately 14 minutes), or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
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5 MINUTES LEFT
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1 MINUTES LEFT
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People I found scummy: walrus, archetype, xeiron, theorel
in that order based on these last minute plays
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Thread Locked.
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The group is spent. All their combined efforts have gone into fighting the enormous beast, but it stands, hardly seeming weaker for the ordeal. The only other person still on his feet is Van Helsing. He aims his crossbow at the Troll.
"I can't make the shot," he murmers. "It can't be done."
The Troll comes galloping towards him. Defeat is at hand.
Suddenly, Temeraire finds some renewed strength in his body. He lifts himself up by his front two paws, and with his last ounce of strength, opens his jaws. A wave of noise comes from his mouth, neither as loud nor as terrible as it has been, but enough. The Troll is stopped in its tracks, and forced onto the back foot, head lurched backwards and neck exposed.
Van Helsing sees his chance. He fires, and the bolt from his bow flies directly at the Troll and plunges into its trunk-like throat.
The Troll screams, furious. He bounds towards Van Helsing, club high above its head, ready to strike. But it stumbles. Violently the Troll crashes into the ground, dark blood seeping from its throat. It tries to lift itself but cannot. Van Helsing places a boot on its head, victorious.
The Troll is defeated!
Target: 312
Total: 312
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Reward: HEAL
The Troll was keeping a fairy locked up in its cave. Thanks to your efforts, she has now been freed. To show her gratitude, she is offering you the use of her healing power to help defeat the Mafia.
The Mafia kill will be blocked for one Night.
This will occur on Night 1, Night 2 or Night 3. During Night 1, each player may vote on which Night they wish the HEAL ability to be used by posting Vote: Night x in your Personal or Mafia QT. Only bolded votes of this form, with x = 1, 2 or 3 will be accepted.
The Mafia kill will be blocked on whichever Night receives the most votes. Ties are broken randomly. Players do not have to vote, and will not receive a reminder. If nobody votes, the ability is lost.
How each player voted will not be announced, publicly or otherwise, nor will the result.
The Mafia kill will not cause a 1-shot Bulletproof purchased with stored dice to be used up on the Night that the HEAL ability is used.
EDIT: A 1-shot Strongman purchased by Mafia will not nullify the HEAL ability, nor will it be used up.
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Q had been backed into a corner. For someone supposedly omnipotent, his mediocre contribution to fighting the Troll had not gone unnoticed. Ned Stark held his sword to his throat. Gabriel Knight pointed his dagger at him. Iron Man had all manner of weapons trained on him. Van Helsing had his crossbow aimed at him, finger on the trigger. And Ash Ketchum had Pikachu on his shoulder, cheeks sparking, ready to let out a thunderbolt at a moment's notice.
"What about Nathan Drake?" Gabriel Knight asked suddenly, stepping away from Q and towards Drake. A few others murmered their agreement.
"Why do you distract us?" Ned Stark demanded. "We must reach a decision."
Gabriel Knight nodded his agreement. "You are right." He stepped back to Q.
Dipper Pines had been silent for a while, deep in thought. Suddenly he piped up. "Q is supposed to be omnipotent right? That doesn't make any sense. If he's omnipotent, surely he can defeat the Monsters and kill the Mafia without our help! He must be one of them! What do you say to that?"
But Q simply stood there, sadly looking back at his accusers. Dipper picked u a stone from the ground, and hurled it at Q. It struck his forehead, and he collapsed in a heap.
EFHW has been lynched.
(http://imgur.com/0vtZjzU.png)
Final Vote Count 1.15
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Archetype (3): Eevee, BoxOfDog, pingpongsam
EFHW (6): Voltaire, theorel, xeiron, chairs, WalrusMcFishSr, Archetype (L-1)
BoxOfDog (3): ashersky, EFHW, faust
not voting (0):
With 13 alive it took 7 to lynch.
Night actions are due by 1pm October 14 forum time.
Due to this being in the middle of the night for me, Day 2 will probably start some hours later.
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Due to Night falling over the weekend, Night 1 has been extended. Day 2 is now due to start at 5pm October 15 forum time.
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Ash Ketchum, Astro Boy, Batman, Dipper Pines, Gabriel Knight, Ice King, Iron Man, Nathan Drake, Ned Stark, Spike, Temeraire and Van Helsing slowly awake from their slumber. After a quick headcount, they realise that no one has died during the night. Several of them secretly chide themselves for not staying awake to keep watch.
Suddenly, in a haze of pale blue, a stranger appears among them. He is cloaked and hooded, with eyes glowing blue.
(http://imgur.com/69V6sb3.png)
"Greetings," the stranger whispers. "I bring a message from the Mafia."
Quickly, Ned Stark draws his sword and hacks at the stranger with it. But it slices through thin air, and he find himself in the dirt, with the man standing over him.
The stranger steps away and begins to chant softly to himself.
"He's chanting an ancient spell," Batman mutters. "He must be stopped."
A Summoner has attacked!
Vote Count 2.0
not voting (12): pingpongsam, Eevee, Archetype, Jorbles, WalrusMcFishSr, chairs, ashersky, theorel, Voltaire, BoxOfDog, xeiron, faust
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Summoner will be defeated.
Target: 12d6
Total: 0
There was an error in the Summoner description. It did read, "Target: pd6, not revealed until the target is reached." It now reads, "Target: pd6, not revealed until Day end." Apologies.
Day 2 has begun!
Thread Unlocked.
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First!
NO ONE ROLL YET.
Voltaire, Jorbles, and Walrus should go first.
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Play: 4
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...Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
As cool as it would be to get another NK-free night, I'm betting we'll be defeating the Summoner if we get at least the Target. :P
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Point of clarification: 12d6 means the result of rolling 12 6-sided dice independently.
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I'll play when I get my results. Just off the bat though, did most people vote for n1? I did not.
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I'll play when I get my results. Just off the bat though, did most people vote for n1? I did not.
I think we should all night claim "N1" or "Not N1."
I'm also a Not N1 person.
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Also, that was Plan #1 of 2.
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Not N1 for me as well.
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My other plan has to do with the fact that I have a result...of sorts from last night.
I'd like that to be a topic of discussion today, after we figure out the monster thing and get that done.
Per theo, we need an average of 3.5 per person to win this?
Also, Voltaire, how did you know the Summoner was next? Scum power to choose the next monster?
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So...I'll lay this out here, but voting N1 for fairy power was definitely anti-town of anyone. Feel free to argue this with me, but man, saving that for when we have less people around would have been best.
It's not clear yet if that's why there's no N1 death, of course. But it seems possible. The other issue with fairy saving to me was that Doctors's powers would be wasted those nights, right? If X-shots were involved, that's an even huger waste.
I mean, it helps scum if they know what night we decide to use fairy powers. So we need to take that into consideration when weighing whether we want to out our fairy night (assuming we didn't just blow it on N1).
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Not N1.
Call me scummy, but I was actually interested in who they'd kill.
I also have a theory that's already been somewhat discussed, but I'll wait a little longer to bring it up.
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Arch, I agree and don't think you are scummy. We'd have garnered a lot of information from an NK, which we use to find scum. Why'd they kill that guy? Were they on/off wagon? Who did they suspect? Who didn't they suspect? That sort of stuff.
Dunno, we'll see if anyone owns up to voting N1.
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Point of clarification: 12d6 means the result of rolling 12 6-sided dice independently.
Is this done after the day ends?
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Arch, I agree and don't think you are scummy. We'd have garnered a lot of information from an NK, which we use to find scum. Why'd they kill that guy? Were they on/off wagon? Who did they suspect? Who didn't they suspect? That sort of stuff.
Dunno, we'll see if anyone owns up to voting N1.
I agree with all this and that's why I didn't choose it as well. My only question is, why you said this:
So...I'll lay this out here, but voting N1 for fairy power was definitely anti-town of anyone. Feel free to argue this with me, but man, saving that for when we have less people around would have been best.
It's not clear yet if that's why there's no N1 death, of course. But it seems possible. The other issue with fairy saving to me was that Doctors's powers would be wasted those nights, right? If X-shots were involved, that's an even huger waste.
I mean, it helps scum if they know what night we decide to use fairy powers. So we need to take that into consideration when weighing whether we want to out our fairy night (assuming we didn't just blow it on N1).
so quickly. Doesn't that sort of defeat the purpose of this poll now, if the intention's out in the open? I mean, probably scum would have been cunning enough to realize it anyway, but still.
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so quickly. Doesn't that sort of defeat the purpose of this poll now, if the intention's out in the open? I mean, probably scum would have been cunning enough to realize it anyway, but still.
To be honest, I used to think like this when I first started. Like, I wouldn't write things because "oh noes scum will know if I say it..." But eventually, time and again, it showed that scum really figures that stuff out on their own.
We should all night claim, and I imagine we'll end up with a result showing that N1 didn't win. But that's because scum will lie about what night they voted for. I don't think scum would vote at all, honestly. So they'll just pick a non-scummy night.
But I think it's worth getting everyone on record for whether they voted N1.
And some town will probably defend a N1 vote for some reason.
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I voted N1. It seemed to me that the Mafia might want to get rid of that extra die power that, uh... somebody used on ashersky? yesterday (I'm playing a game of League of Legends right now, sorry for brief post) and I didn't want to let them get rid of it so easily.
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I voted N1. It seemed to me that the Mafia might want to get rid of that extra die power that, uh... somebody used on ashersky? yesterday (I'm playing a game of League of Legends right now, sorry for brief post) and I didn't want to let them get rid of it so easily.
You mean Jorbles's extra roll power?
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I voted Night1, for 2 reasons:
1. Storing dice helps us gain roles. By tonight, some people may be able to buy bulletproof, which will make scum unable to kill them.
2. Jorbles seemed the likely kill.
I'll note that I almost voted for post-night1, but felt those 2 reasons outweighed later night benefits.
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I voted N1. It seemed to me that the Mafia might want to get rid of that extra die power that, uh... somebody used on ashersky? yesterday (I'm playing a game of League of Legends right now, sorry for brief post) and I didn't want to let them get rid of it so easily.
You mean Jorbles's extra roll power?
That would be the one. It seemed like a likely choice for the Mafia to want to get extra rolls out of Town hands, and if we can at least get one more day of an extra roll to get another awesome reward why risk giving that up?
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I voted Night1, for 2 reasons:
1. Storing dice helps us gain roles. By tonight, some people may be able to buy bulletproof, which will make scum unable to kill them.
2. Jorbles seemed the likely kill.
I'll note that I almost voted for post-night1, but felt those 2 reasons outweighed later night benefits.
Theo, what's the word on how we defeat this monster? Still think we need 3.5? That's a guesstimate on beating the average, right?
Seems, if we aren't getting the total from the mod until after day ends, we should all just roll and play high numbers, right?
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Also, Voltaire, how did you know the Summoner was next? Scum power to choose the next monster?
Still want to hear the answer here. My suspicions are high on Voltaire.
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I have a result...of sorts from last night.
Also this. We need to discuss this, too, clearly.
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I hope I'm not sounding too demanding, but I'm interested in a couple things about your role.
1. Does the player you target use the additionally rolled die from their supply? Or are they just given a dice that they roll?
2. Is the player you target forced to roll the additional die?
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I hope I'm not sounding too demanding, but I'm interested in a couple things about your role.
1. Does the player you target use the additionally rolled die from their supply? Or are they just given a dice that they roll?
2. Is the player you target forced to roll the additional die?
I'm talking to Jorbles, by the way.
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I hope I'm not sounding too demanding, but I'm interested in a couple things about your role.
1. Does the player you target use the additionally rolled die from their supply? Or are they just given a dice that they roll?
2. Is the player you target forced to roll the additional die?
I'm talking to Jorbles, by the way.
As his D1 target, I know the answers. He knows I know, so I doubt he'd lie, either.
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I hope I'm not sounding too demanding, but I'm interested in a couple things about your role.
1. Does the player you target use the additionally rolled die from their supply? Or are they just given a dice that they roll?
2. Is the player you target forced to roll the additional die?
I'm talking to Jorbles, by the way.
As his D1 target, I know the answers. He knows I know, so I doubt he'd lie, either.
Do we want scum to know the answers, though?
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If Jorbles is scum, it could make his power (nearly) useless for his team if it works the way I think it does.
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Alright I'm back from something!
Looks like not much is going down.
A question for Jim: Do Mafia have the availability of NOT killing someone during the night?
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If Jorbles is scum, it could make his power (nearly) useless for his team if it works the way I think it does.
Remember, that wasn't a consideration for the mods. Monster roles were assigned without care to alignment, per the OP.
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Alright I'm back from something!
Looks like not much is going down.
A question for Jim: Do Mafia have the availability of NOT killing someone during the night?
Mafia generally don't have a compulsory kill. So in normal games, mafia can choose not to kill. It happens late in games sometimes to either force a favorable town size or to fake out town trackers, etc. Not sure why they would choose not to kill on N1, though.
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Looks like not much is going down.
Also, what?
We're all claiming whether we voted for the fairy power to happen on N1 or not.
We're waiting on Voltaire to tell us how he knew what monster was coming today.
We're waiting to find out about my N1 results.
We're waiting for everyone to weigh in on stuff.
We're working out how best to kill the monster.
"Not much going on" is insane, man. Policy vote: Box for trying to downplay and stall.
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If Jorbles is scum, it could make his power (nearly) useless for his team if it works the way I think it does.
Remember, that wasn't a consideration for the mods. Monster roles were assigned without care to alignment, per the OP.
Yup. I don't think using it in the way I'm considering will hurt Town, either. Just Mafia. Unless claiming exactly what it does will harm us, then I wouldn't want to do it. But I want Jorbles to make the call.
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Alright I'm back from something!
Looks like not much is going down.
A question for Jim: Do Mafia have the availability of NOT killing someone during the night?
This is either honest to goodness town or a brilliant scum ploy.
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If Jorbles is scum, it could make his power (nearly) useless for his team if it works the way I think it does.
Remember, that wasn't a consideration for the mods. Monster roles were assigned without care to alignment, per the OP.
Yup. I don't think using it in the way I'm considering will hurt Town, either. Just Mafia. Unless claiming exactly what it does will harm us, then I wouldn't want to do it. But I want Jorbles to make the call.
Unless Jorbles is scum, then you don't.
But, well, here's my thoughts on that:
If Jorbles is scum, it was terrible for him to use his power. It allowed us to win. It hurt scum. Fairy is actually a crazy OP result, which leads me to think scum must have some strong roles. I mean, Fairy is basically a free unbreakable doctor on every single player in the game. It cost us nothing to get. It's basically a bastard role in power form. So Jorbles helping us get that doesn't make sense as scum.
Unless! He was overly worried about his terrible dice roll and was buying back towncred. But, probably not worth it from his scum perspective. Given we didn't know what Fairy did, hard to say.
As far as wanting scum to know the info...do you think it is more or less harmful for scum to know that the double roller (me in this case) received extra dice to roll or had to use his own dice for the extra roll or just got numbers rolled for him? There's reasons against it, for sure (like knowing I have less dice than everyone). Not sure what the pros are.
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Alright I'm back from something!
Looks like not much is going down.
A question for Jim: Do Mafia have the availability of NOT killing someone during the night?
This is either honest to goodness town or a brilliant scum ploy.
You mean faking not knowing about no kill options? I guess I didn't think about it. Good call.
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6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch. If no lynch occurs, the Mafia must attempt a kill the following night.
Other than this situation, Mafia have a non-compulsory kill.
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Point of clarification: 12d6 means the result of rolling 12 6-sided dice independently.
Is this done after the day ends?
Bolded this time. Can you answer?
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Point of clarification: 12d6 means the result of rolling 12 6-sided dice independently.
Is this done after the day ends?
Bolded this time. Can you answer?
The Target will be announced at the end of the Day. If you're asking whether or not I've actually rolled the result yet, that's not something that needs to be announced.
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Point of clarification: 12d6 means the result of rolling 12 6-sided dice independently.
Is this done after the day ends?
Bolded this time. Can you answer?
The Target will be announced at the end of the Day. If you're asking whether or not I've actually rolled the result yet, that's not something that needs to be announced.
Nope, that's all I was wondering.
So confirmed we won't know what we need to roll to defeat him.
We know the highest possible target is 72, right?
With Jorbles's extra roll, we need to roll an average of 5.6 to guarantee victory.
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Ashersky, is it important to you to have scum know whether or not the extra die you roll comes from your supply?
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Man. That could be a huge waste of good dice if the total really is 72 and we don't make it. The Reward (Council) seems like some sort of Neighborizer thing, which doesn't seem that great. But the threat (Summon) scares me.
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Okaay, yeah.
I was wondering, because I was reading up on Mafia Game strategy, and saw that if the mafia doesn't kill, they gain a 9% more likely win.
Then it noted that it depends of whether or not they can decide not to kill during the night.
But it was a one shot bulletproof that the mafia tried to kill, right?
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Play: 3
Honest to goodness, I didn't know it would end up really low ;-;
So.. So.. Sorry.. Gosh danit..
Doesn't it say we need to get a six? Or something?
*long sigh*
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Okaay, yeah.
I was wondering, because I was reading up on Mafia Game strategy, and saw that if the mafia doesn't kill, they gain a 9% more likely win.
Then it noted that it depends of whether or not they can decide not to kill during the night.
But it was a one shot bulletproof that the mafia tried to kill, right?
Or the majority of players voted for N1 (which I'm 99% sure is what happened).
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Vote:BoxOfDog
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Gah, Unvote. How much does a Vig cost?
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Gah, Unvote. How much does a Vig cost?
..Wat?
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Okaay, yeah.
I was wondering, because I was reading up on Mafia Game strategy, and saw that if the mafia doesn't kill, they gain a 9% more likely win.
Then it noted that it depends of whether or not they can decide not to kill during the night.
But it was a one shot bulletproof that the mafia tried to kill, right?
1-Shot Bulletproof costs 10. Given we could only bank 1 die from D1 (me not withstanding) means no one had 10 in the bank, unless they have a dice related power.
Also, why would you assume that anyway?
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Okaay, yeah.
I was wondering, because I was reading up on Mafia Game strategy, and saw that if the mafia doesn't kill, they gain a 9% more likely win.
Then it noted that it depends of whether or not they can decide not to kill during the night.
But it was a one shot bulletproof that the mafia tried to kill, right?
1-Shot Bulletproof costs 10. Given we could only bank 1 die from D1 (me not withstanding) means no one had 10 in the bank, unless they have a dice related power.
Also, why would you assume that anyway?
*shrug*
I thought the night post said something along the lines of bulletproof.
Guess I read it wrong.
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I voted Night 3, because I think stopping the mafia kill is better later in the game, as we will then have better reads and a smaller lynchpool, so that we can make better use of a double lynch.
I also think those that claimed "not N1", should claim "N2" or "N3".
Knowing which night are nightkill-free will help town more than it will help scum.
And if the result of our poll is different from the actual result we have a smaller pool of potential liars.
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I voted N3. I agree with xeiron: The information is more important to town. I voted N3 because I thought people might be able to buy 1-shot cops by then and we don't want someone who bought a 1-shot cop to die.
Also, I urge ashersky not to talk about his result. I can't give a reason, but I hope he'll understand.
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Vote: theorel
He had that mysterious re-roll. He pushed the EFHW wagon. He voted Night 1, with these reasons:
1. Storing dice helps us gain roles. By tonight, some people may be able to buy bulletproof, which will make scum unable to kill them.
2. Jorbles seemed the likely kill.
1. I don't think bulletproof is the best power to purchase here. Starting N2, scum can probably just purchase Strongman every night, making this useless. Think about it: town needs 9 bulletproofs to be completely defended, scum only needs one Strongman to break the defense.
2. Jorbles wouldn't be the worst kill ever. By his D1 roll, he has only stored a 1 or a 2. Yes, he has a neat PR, but we already agreed that monster-fighting PRs are weaker than scum-fighting PRs, right?
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I had a social function to attend at 6pm yesterday that I left for at 5:30. It appears this thread opened way later than that. I was so tempted to see what happened when I got in late but decided it better for my health to get some sleep and not have my brain working out N1 results. Turns out there were no N1 results (at least the expected kind).
I have to agree with ashersky, having no N1 NK is poor Town play. There's nothing more to work with than what we ended D1 with. I voted N2. I thought N3 might prove more useful because it might save a powerful role claim. But I also knew scum would likely be voting N1 so I tried to guess where everyone would be weighted and place my vote there. I thought surely no one would be voting N1 although it had not occurred to me that it might allow the target to get powered up at the dice store; I can see that as a reasonable defense of a N1 vote but also a well thought out scum ploy.
Also, we don't know that if one of us was a bulletproof target (except maybe the one and even then he doesn't know for sure it was him). I thought it likely I would be NK'd last night but I didn't even consider suiting up for the attack. I am firmly in the camp that N1 NK info is more valuable than entering D2 with all the bodies.
I note two of our three low-rollers have produced more low rolls. It's really hard for me to suspect Jorbles. If Jorbles is scum then he is a Town asset anyway for having and for using his power. He flat out told us that his power is not one-shot. If I were a scum "Trainer" (ignoring the obvious fact that this is a completely terrible power to bestow upon scum to begin with) I'd play the power D1 and claim it was one-shot so I'd have an excuse to never use it again. That he is expected to contribute to our monster-fighting abilities daily practically makes him Innocent Child to me. I'm open to counter arguments, however.
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Assuming scum all voted N1 for the fairy (as opposed to no vote) that means a minimum of 2 Townies voted N1 as well (requiring the remainder of Town to be split between N2 and N3). If Town was not split between N2 and N3 then for everyone outside the split another had to be on N1.
I think it is safe to assume scum did vote N1 as any other night is more problematic and not voting increases the likelihood it occurs on any other night.
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I note two of our three low-rollers have produced more low rolls. It's really hard for me to suspect Jorbles. If Jorbles is scum then he is a Town asset anyway for having and for using his power. He flat out told us that his power is not one-shot. If I were a scum "Trainer" (ignoring the obvious fact that this is a completely terrible power to bestow upon scum to begin with) I'd play the power D1 and claim it was one-shot so I'd have an excuse to never use it again. That he is expected to contribute to our monster-fighting abilities daily practically makes him Innocent Child to me. I'm open to counter arguments, however.
Voltaire has not rolled yet.
Box was a highroller D1, who for some reason chose to roll earlier than he should today.
I agree that Jorbles is probably town.
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The sentiment that later kills are better blocked is really weird to me, and I'm not sure why so many people seem to believe it? Could someone explain exactly WHY you believe later kills are better to block? So far all I've seen is it being declared without any supporting argument. It is not self-evident that later kills are better to block.
As I said, I went back and forth on it a bit, but ultimately decided night1 was most beneficial. Because the only value I saw in a night1 death was the flip, and from my perspective it looked like it would just be a Jorbles kill flipping town. Maybe scum would have WIFOMed it, or maybe Jorbles is scum, but I consider those as low probability outcomes.
One other consideration I thought of was parity. Ultimately it's not significant to my choice, because we just would have had to plan to set ourselves up for the kill-block changing the parity. But I do think it is at least a little beneficial to be looking at the parity problem, instead of talking about the pending parity problem. Speaking of which, we should discuss dealing with it... Which comes down to pushing for a vig vs. hoping for a bulletproof/doc defense.
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Regarding dice-rolling...we've got 12 dice, which should give relatively low variance (yay for summoner being early). Does anyone actually do statistics? We need a 72 to guarantee victory, but that's probably unnecessary overall. I'd suggest doing something like a 95% confidence interval. I'm willing to take a 5% risk of failure. I'll see what I can find about it.
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The sentiment that later kills are better blocked is really weird to me, and I'm not sure why so many people seem to believe it? Could someone explain exactly WHY you believe later kills are better to block? So far all I've seen is it being declared without any supporting argument. It is not self-evident that later kills are better to block.
As I said, I went back and forth on it a bit, but ultimately decided night1 was most beneficial. Because the only value I saw in a night1 death was the flip, and from my perspective it looked like it would just be a Jorbles kill flipping town. Maybe scum would have WIFOMed it, or maybe Jorbles is scum, but I consider those as low probability outcomes.
This sounds like scum WIFOM to me. Scum would leave Jorbles on the table for N1. He has a known pro-town role. That role is not Cop nor Doctor or Tracker so, in effect, they are not anti-scum roles. Scum would rather take a random chance of hitting an anti-scum role than a 0% chance of hitting just a pro-town role. Hapless Town might unwittingly protect Jorbles because he is effectively IC and we want to keep our known PR but smart Town knows we have stronger roles amongst us. I would bet dollars to donuts on Mafia hitting anyone BUT Jorbles and that hit would be very informative D2. Later kills are better to block when there is some actual information on the table. Right now we have no more information than we did at the end of D1 AND our power is shot. Somehow that doesn't strike me as being the best use of that power.
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Anybody can become a cop. And depending on how Jorbles' role works, it may be helping us to get one-shot cop roles faster. (that's how I originally read it with ash rolling 3 dice on his second roll, but maybe he meant he rolled 3 dice on the first roll? We never really clarified, since it shouldn't have been announced in the first place. I'm inclined not to clarify now, because that info only helps scum).
Regardless, so far our one monster benefit has been pretty big. Better than a doctor, certainly better than an x-shot doctor. (docs hope to block kills, but are rarely successful, we DID block a kill). I bet scum saw that and thought they should have worked harder to prevent it.
Here we get "Council". We don't know what that means either. Maybe it is just a neighborizing effect, maybe it's a mason-creating effect, or a cop effect. It's possible that the Troll had one of the most powerful beneficial effects (given that the Troll was one of the more powerful monsters)...maybe they're all going to be really effective. So far, our one example is a "more powerful than a 1-shot role" effect. Add in that Jorbles is practically an IC (a desirable kill any time), and I don't think that scum would leave Jorbles on the table if he's town.
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The sentiment that later kills are better blocked is really weird to me, and I'm not sure why so many people seem to believe it? Could someone explain exactly WHY you believe later kills are better to block? So far all I've seen is it being declared without any supporting argument. It is not self-evident that later kills are better to block.
As I said, I went back and forth on it a bit, but ultimately decided night1 was most beneficial. Because the only value I saw in a night1 death was the flip, and from my perspective it looked like it would just be a Jorbles kill flipping town. Maybe scum would have WIFOMed it, or maybe Jorbles is scum, but I consider those as low probability outcomes.
One other consideration I thought of was parity. Ultimately it's not significant to my choice, because we just would have had to plan to set ourselves up for the kill-block changing the parity. But I do think it is at least a little beneficial to be looking at the parity problem, instead of talking about the pending parity problem. Speaking of which, we should discuss dealing with it... Which comes down to pushing for a vig vs. hoping for a bulletproof/doc defense.
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Regarding dice-rolling...we've got 12 dice, which should give relatively low variance (yay for summoner being early). Does anyone actually do statistics? We need a 72 to guarantee victory, but that's probably unnecessary overall. I'd suggest doing something like a 95% confidence interval. I'm willing to take a 5% risk of failure. I'll see what I can find about it.
We are 12 persons left. If 6 townies dies before any mafia dies, mafia win.
If we ignore special powers, this can be done over 3 days. 3 nightkills and 3 lynches.
These usally alternate, fist a NK, then a lynch, then a nk and so on, but lets pretend they dont for arguments sake.
Now we can look at two extremes.
Alternative 1: Town gets 3 lynches in a row, and then scum makes 3 nk's
Alternaive 2: Scum gets 3 NK's, and then we have 3 lynches.
And the question is, what is best for town?
Lets have a look at the math.
Start with alt. 1 and assuming random lynch.
We have (10/13)*(9/12)*(8/11) ~ 42% chance of lynching 3 town members
The NK have then about 100% chance of 3 townies and we lose.
Then look at alternative 2. Still assuming random lynch.
Scum NK 3 townies, and we have (7/10)*(6/9)*(5/8) ~ 29% chance of lynching another 3 townies.
That is, in alternative 1, scum have 42% chance of winning before D5, in alternative 2, they have only 29% chance.
Now, in real life we are lynching by scumhunting, not randomly, so I would like to believe we could do a little better, but these numbers still give a indication.
Please note than in alternative 2. we have more information than in 1, as we have NK information as well. this means whatever advantage we get by scumhunting will probably be greater in alternative 2. I hope I have made it clear by now that alternative 2 is vastly superior to 1 for town.
Now lets take a look at the actual situation.
Assume we have just finished D1, but that N1 has not started.
We have three alternatives for the next 6 kills:
1: NK . lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK
2: NK . lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK
3: NK . lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK
Of these alternative 3 is the most similar to alt. 2 from above, as it has the NK happend as early as possible, and the lynches as late as possible. It will impact our chances to win.
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The sentiment that later kills are better blocked is really weird to me, and I'm not sure why so many people seem to believe it? Could someone explain exactly WHY you believe later kills are better to block? So far all I've seen is it being declared without any supporting argument. It is not self-evident that later kills are better to block.
As I said, I went back and forth on it a bit, but ultimately decided night1 was most beneficial. Because the only value I saw in a night1 death was the flip, and from my perspective it looked like it would just be a Jorbles kill flipping town. Maybe scum would have WIFOMed it, or maybe Jorbles is scum, but I consider those as low probability outcomes.
One other consideration I thought of was parity. Ultimately it's not significant to my choice, because we just would have had to plan to set ourselves up for the kill-block changing the parity. But I do think it is at least a little beneficial to be looking at the parity problem, instead of talking about the pending parity problem. Speaking of which, we should discuss dealing with it... Which comes down to pushing for a vig vs. hoping for a bulletproof/doc defense.
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Regarding dice-rolling...we've got 12 dice, which should give relatively low variance (yay for summoner being early). Does anyone actually do statistics? We need a 72 to guarantee victory, but that's probably unnecessary overall. I'd suggest doing something like a 95% confidence interval. I'm willing to take a 5% risk of failure. I'll see what I can find about it.
We are 12 persons left. If 6 townies dies before any mafia dies, mafia win.
If we ignore special powers, this can be done over 3 days. 3 nightkills and 3 lynches.
These usally alternate, fist a NK, then a lynch, then a nk and so on, but lets pretend they dont for arguments sake.
Now we can look at two extremes.
Alternative 1: Town gets 3 lynches in a row, and then scum makes 3 nk's
Alternaive 2: Scum gets 3 NK's, and then we have 3 lynches.
And the question is, what is best for town?
Lets have a look at the math.
Start with alt. 1 and assuming random lynch.
We have (10/13)*(9/12)*(8/11) ~ 42% chance of lynching 3 town members
The NK have then about 100% chance of 3 townies and we lose.
Then look at alternative 2. Still assuming random lynch.
Scum NK 3 townies, and we have (7/10)*(6/9)*(5/8) ~ 29% chance of lynching another 3 townies.
That is, in alternative 1, scum have 42% chance of winning before D5, in alternative 2, they have only 29% chance.
Now, in real life we are lynching by scumhunting, not randomly, so I would like to believe we could do a little better, but these numbers still give a indication.
Please note than in alternative 2. we have more information than in 1, as we have NK information as well. this means whatever advantage we get by scumhunting will probably be greater in alternative 2. I hope I have made it clear by now that alternative 2 is vastly superior to 1 for town.
Now lets take a look at the actual situation.
Assume we have just finished D1, but that N1 has not started.
We have three alternatives for the next 6 kills:
1: NK . lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK
2: NK . lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK
3: NK . lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK
Of these alternative 3 is the most similar to alt. 2 from above, as it has the NK happend as early as possible, and the lynches as late as possible. It will impact our chances to win.
This is wrong. Your model is flawed, because your ideal is NO BLOCKED KILL. We can exactly achieve that ideal by no-lynching today. Consider the following
4: NK. lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
There, now we're at the ideal. If you think that's really the best we can do.
The question is HOW DO WE BEAT that "ideal"?
Suggestion
5: NK lynch, vig+NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
Now we have only 2 NKs compared to 3 lynches and a vig-shot.
From a parity argument it would have been better to have:
6: NK, lynch, vig+NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
But we would have had a hard time determining if the vig went through on a no-NK night, or if it was just the NK, and it could turn into:
6b: NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK...
Let's see, then we lynch the supposed vig...except it turns out that he was a vig and scum coincided their NK with him...and we lose.
I personally like 5 a bit better than 6, except we have to worry about if vig+NK is really the best way to restore parity.
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Anybody can become a cop. And depending on how Jorbles' role works, it may be helping us to get one-shot cop roles faster. (that's how I originally read it with ash rolling 3 dice on his second roll, but maybe he meant he rolled 3 dice on the first roll? We never really clarified, since it shouldn't have been announced in the first place. I'm inclined not to clarify now, because that info only helps scum).
Regardless, so far our one monster benefit has been pretty big. Better than a doctor, certainly better than an x-shot doctor. (docs hope to block kills, but are rarely successful, we DID block a kill). I bet scum saw that and thought they should have worked harder to prevent it.
Here we get "Council". We don't know what that means either. Maybe it is just a neighborizing effect, maybe it's a mason-creating effect, or a cop effect. It's possible that the Troll had one of the most powerful beneficial effects (given that the Troll was one of the more powerful monsters)...maybe they're all going to be really effective. So far, our one example is a "more powerful than a 1-shot role" effect. Add in that Jorbles is practically an IC (a desirable kill any time), and I don't think that scum would leave Jorbles on the table if he's town.
Jorbles would be a good candidate for scum to NK, but he would also be the top candidate for any doctor to protect. This makes him a more risky target for a NK. It may also be what happened. A doc blocked the NK, and we still have our fairy reward for later.
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Sorry, I misread your post...the ideal you're suggesting is 3NK-3lynch.
I'm suggesting that the last lynch matters a WHOLE LOT.
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Which is to say, I didn't actually read your post and skipped to the conclusion. Sorry, I'm going to actually analyze it now.
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Okay, so fix my previous post with the following:
If instead we just block NO KILLS (or just no-lynch today), we get the following:
4: NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
The loss% chance here (i.e. chance of no scum lynches) is 32.8% which is trivially better than
3: NK, lynch, NK, lynch, lynch, NK
at 35% for random lynches.
So, while 4 wasn't your ideal, it's better in the random-lynch model than 3 is. So, we need to consider a different model that takes into account restoring parity (i.e. 4 town=kills and 2 NKs), and then map out optimum NK-blocking.
Then we should factor in the uncertainty in the 4-th town-kill.
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So instead of arguing about when the night-block should have happened, I really think we should be discussing restoring parity.
A directed vig is nice, but it tells scum who should buy bullet-proof or if they need to.
I think an undirected vig tonight would be ideal. I don't want anyone to say if they're able to, but I would like to discuss what people think about it. I think it should wait until after we've all rolled anyways.
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A doc blocked the NK, and we still have our fairy reward for later.
Yes, this is very possible although improbable. If we all start claiming the night for which we voted this information becomes known to Mafia. It is far more useful information to them than to us, I think. I'm not sure. Intuition tells me transparency and information is always best shared with Town. Logic tells me this particular information is more relevant to scum purposes than to Town. I have already claimed before thinking about this aspect. It may be best to reconsider this notion that we all claim. Scum will most likely pollute the results anyway. Also, maybe the demand for this claiming was scum-driven?
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This is wrong. Your model is flawed, because your ideal is NO BLOCKED KILL. We can exactly achieve that ideal by no-lynching today. Consider the following
4: NK. lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
There, now we're at the ideal. If you think that's really the best we can do.
The question is HOW DO WE BEAT that "ideal"?
Suggestion
5: NK lynch, vig+NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
Now we have only 2 NKs compared to 3 lynches and a vig-shot.
From a parity argument it would have been better to have:
6: NK, lynch, vig+NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
But we would have had a hard time determining if the vig went through on a no-NK night, or if it was just the NK, and it could turn into:
6b: NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK...
Let's see, then we lynch the supposed vig...except it turns out that he was a vig and scum coincided their NK with him...and we lose.
I personally like 5 a bit better than 6, except we have to worry about if vig+NK is really the best way to restore parity.
I am not sure if I understand you.
My "ideal" is NK, NK, NK,, NK, lynch, lynch, lynch. (from the viewpoint of before N1)
NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK, lynch, NK is the closest I get if I adjust only the fairy power parameter.
It is a good point you mention about us being out of parity at the moment. I think the best way to get in parity again would be to get rid of another NK.
This can be done by buying bulletproof over vig or by a protective role if we have one.
Why do you think
5: NK lynch, vig+NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
is better than
6: NK lynch, vig+NK, lynch, NK, lynch?
Or do you believe that we cannot have any vig without blocking the first NK?
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Vote Count 2.1
BoxOfDog (1): ashersky
theorel (1): faust
not voting (10): pingpongsam, Eevee, Jorbles, WalrusMcFishSr, chairs, theorel, Voltaire, BoxOfDog, xeiron, Archetype
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Summoner will be defeated.
Target: 12d6
Total: 7
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A doc blocked the NK, and we still have our fairy reward for later.
Yes, this is very possible although improbable. If we all start claiming the night for which we voted this information becomes known to Mafia. It is far more useful information to them than to us, I think. I'm not sure. Intuition tells me transparency and information is always best shared with Town. Logic tells me this particular information is more relevant to scum purposes than to Town. I have already claimed before thinking about this aspect. It may be best to reconsider this notion that we all claim. Scum will most likely pollute the results anyway. Also, maybe the demand for this claiming was scum-driven?
Could you try to explain this. Because I think think that this information is more useful to town than scum.
Pro town arguments:
-If we know what night is NK-free, some PR that might or might not exist may make better decisions. (example: x-shot doctor/jailkeeper/other potective role not using a shot on that night.)
-If we find out that our poll is polluted by scum, we have some information about who is scum. (exemple: 6 people say they voted N2, three on the N!, and N3, but a nk happend N". We know at least 2 of those 6 is scum. Ignoring vigs)
Pro scum arguments.
- scum can pollute the poll so that town PR that might or might not exist, may make worse decisions.
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Why do you think
5: NK lynch, vig+NK, lynch, NK, lynch.
is better than
6: NK lynch, vig+NK, lynch, NK, lynch?
Or do you believe that we cannot have any vig without blocking the first NK?
6 would have been better parity-wise. The issue here becomes information. i.e. suppose we had only had the vig-kill night2, how would you react? Does it mean that the no-kill night happened night2, or does it mean the vig lied, or does it mean scum coincided their kill with the vig?
If we have 2 kills night2, then we're clear. But what if we have only 1? What do we do then? Do we expect no NK, or do we expect a NK. we need to play differently in each case to maintain good parity.
Admittedly, if a doc blocked the kill last night, that issue could still exist. But that's why I preferred night-1, was because it wouldn't be a question of when the no-kill happened. I think tonight is ideal for vigging for the same reason.
Honestly, if I'd considered the parity-argument a little harder, I might have voted for night3. I was definitely in the "early blocks better than late blocks informationally" mind-set. Partly due to MXXX where we had these arguments about doc vs. vig (even though it ultimately didn't matter there). The possibility of block failing was also significant to that argument, and I didn't really reconsider it in light of the can't fail block.
So, to be clear, I think that I should have chosen night3 due to this argument. I think there are reasons why it's not 100% clearly better in all situations, but I think it is generally better.
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Play: 6
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Could you try to explain this. Because I think think that this information is more useful to town than scum.
Pro town arguments:
-If we know what night is NK-free, some PR that might or might not exist may make better decisions. (example: x-shot doctor/jailkeeper/other potective role not using a shot on that night.)
-If we find out that our poll is polluted by scum, we have some information about who is scum. (exemple: 6 people say they voted N2, three on the N!, and N3, but a nk happend N". We know at least 2 of those 6 is scum. Ignoring vigs)
Pro scum arguments.
- scum can pollute the poll so that town PR that might or might not exist, may make worse decisions.
Pro-scum argument:
(an edited copy of your pro-town argument)
-If they know that N1 is NK-free, some PR does exist. (example: x-shot doctor/jailkeeper/other protective role)
Otherwise I tend to agree. I wasn't necessarily arguing against just soliciting discussion around it before we had all fully claimed.
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Also, Voltaire, how did you know the Summoner was next? Scum power to choose the next monster?
Still want to hear the answer here. My suspicions are high on Voltaire.
I am fairly certain roles are assigned randomly to town and scum.
All roles which assist in fighting the Monsters have been distributed entirely independently of alignment. None of these roles are compulsory, and there is no way for a Townie to investigate another player's role.[/color]
Having a certain type of role related to fighting monsters doesn't make someone scummy or towny (like knowing future monsters). I find Voltaire scummy for the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday though.
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I hope I'm not sounding too demanding, but I'm interested in a couple things about your role.
1. Does the player you target use the additionally rolled die from their supply? Or are they just given a dice that they roll?
2. Is the player you target forced to roll the additional die?
1. I'd rather not say as I think exact knowledge of this will help scum.
2. They are not forced to roll, they get to choose.
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Catching up right now. Based on what I've read so far: I voted for N1. My reasons were similar to theo: my primary thinking was on later days town may be able to buy bulletproof.
I knew the Summoner was next because of a town power, ash. :P
Seriously though, I know that powers are independent of alignment. Mine has to do with knowing the monsters. There is a nerf to it.
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play: 5
still catching up
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Target: 12d6
Total: 18
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I currently agree with the arguments that knowing which night was kill-free is more advantageous for town. Generally I think having this sort of "game-wide" information out in the open is better for town. It's why I declared publicly what today's monster would be. It lets people think about their dice supply if they're running low, or what they've got in store, or whatever. It lets scum do that too, I know. On balance I think this sort of thing advantages town.
In this situation, if N1 wasn't the night the power was used, we know what night no-one will die. And like was pointed out, if our poll disagrees with the real result, we have a pool of liars to chose from. Town should tell the truth about who they voted for, even though voting N1 was pre-declared scummy by ash before we started revealing.
(also totally disagree the power is OP and bastard. This is a RMM game. It was a night-wide doc/block. That's fine. I'm sure the scum ones will be crazy powerful, or that the troll had the strongest powers, or whatever)
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Okay, well...I don't do statistics/probability on this level, but someone does :)
http://anydice.com/
enter 12d6 and do "at least" (or "at most") and "export" if you want actual numbers.
Here's the salient results (using at least and export, formatted slightly (replaced , with |)
Strength of Summoner | probability he is at least that strong.
50 | 10.362598605692627
51 | 7.603437296512627
52 | 5.429777614632627
53 | 3.768850548012627
54 | 2.538993269342627
55 | 1.657465075978627
56 | 1.0465962821586268
57 | 0.6379475691986267
58 | 0.3745007419636267
This is the probability that we will lose anyways if we hit that target value.
I think we should probably shoot for at least a 52. That gives us around a 95% win-chance.
52/12 = 4.333
So that'd be an average of just over 4 from each player.
I think it would be good to give some further ordering to the dice-play here. We're at 18 with 4 plays right? So, we're doing pretty good so far (average of 4.5)
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I think it's worth discussing what we want our target number to actually be, so that the last couple players can't suggest that they didn't realize we were shooting higher than 52. I'm kind of conservative, so I'd like to get to 57. But then 99+% does seem a bit excessive to me. Maybe shoot for more like 55?(comfortably in the 98+% range)
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I think it's worth discussing what we want our target number to actually be, so that the last couple players can't suggest that they didn't realize we were shooting higher than 52. I'm kind of conservative, so I'd like to get to 57. But then 99+% does seem a bit excessive to me. Maybe shoot for more like 55?(comfortably in the 98+% range)
Honestly I'd be comfortable with anything over 50. If we lose the fight on a 90% chance of success than I'll just chalk it up to bad luck.
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I think it's worth discussing what we want our target number to actually be, so that the last couple players can't suggest that they didn't realize we were shooting higher than 52. I'm kind of conservative, so I'd like to get to 57. But then 99+% does seem a bit excessive to me. Maybe shoot for more like 55?(comfortably in the 98+% range)
Honestly I'd be comfortable with anything over 50. If we lose the fight on a 90% chance of success than I'll just chalk it up to bad luck.
50 is fine for me.
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play: 6
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Here briefly.
Thanks for rolling early Jorbles, Walrus, and Voltaire.
I hope I'm not sounding too demanding, but I'm interested in a couple things about your role.
1. Does the player you target use the additionally rolled die from their supply? Or are they just given a dice that they roll?
2. Is the player you target forced to roll the additional die?
1. I'd rather not say as I think exact knowledge of this will help scum.
2. They are not forced to roll, they get to choose.
Alright, thanks for answering. My "plan" is to have you target ashersky to roll an additional die every single day. Town gain very little utility from knowing how many dice someone has stored, so if you're Town I see no problem continually targeting the same person. Especially if the dice they roll does not come out of their supply.
Now, I'd like to have ashersky answer this with either a Yes or a No: Do you want to have Jorbles target you every day? Feel free to elaborate if you need to, but it'll probably help scum less if you don't. But of course, up to you. I'd rather Jorbles not answer the question, though.
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Also, I urge ashersky not to talk about his result. I can't give a reason, but I hope he'll understand.
I don't know your reasoning, which might be helpful. Anything you can say to elaborate?
Clearly I've painted a target on my back by mentioning anything at all. Buyable bulletproofs really help! I think what I have is worth talking about.
Faust could be town trying to do...something? Or he's scum afraid I caught him? I don't know. Seems like the wrong way for scum to react.
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Assuming scum all voted N1 for the fairy (as opposed to no vote) that means a minimum of 2 Townies voted N1 as well (requiring the remainder of Town to be split between N2 and N3). If Town was not split between N2 and N3 then for everyone outside the split another had to be on N1.
I think it is safe to assume scum did vote N1 as any other night is more problematic and not voting increases the likelihood it occurs on any other night.
This is a good point. I assumed scum wouldn't vote because they'd be unhappy about the power itself. PPS makes sense here, though.
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Also, Voltaire, how did you know the Summoner was next? Scum power to choose the next monster?
Still want to hear the answer here. My suspicions are high on Voltaire.
I am fairly certain roles are assigned randomly to town and scum.
All roles which assist in fighting the Monsters have been distributed entirely independently of alignment. None of these roles are compulsory, and there is no way for a Townie to investigate another player's role.[/color]
Having a certain type of role related to fighting monsters doesn't make someone scummy or towny (like knowing future monsters). I find Voltaire scummy for the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday though.
I was thinking that there could be an actual scum power to choose monsters, though. I guess it could just be a power and they have to choose the monster. But if that's so, man, Voltaire should have chosen an easier monster.
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I was thinking that there could be an actual scum power to choose monsters, though. I guess it could just be a power and they have to choose the monster. But if that's so, man, Voltaire should have chosen an easier monster.
For the record, my power is just to know, not to choose, the monster. This makes me agree with you that it is pretty likely someone has the power to choose/alter the monster in some way (because my power exists).
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Here briefly.
Thanks for rolling early Jorbles, Walrus, and Voltaire.
I hope I'm not sounding too demanding, but I'm interested in a couple things about your role.
1. Does the player you target use the additionally rolled die from their supply? Or are they just given a dice that they roll?
2. Is the player you target forced to roll the additional die?
1. I'd rather not say as I think exact knowledge of this will help scum.
2. They are not forced to roll, they get to choose.
Alright, thanks for answering. My "plan" is to have you target ashersky to roll an additional die every single day. Town gain very little utility from knowing how many dice someone has stored, so if you're Town I see no problem continually targeting the same person. Especially if the dice they roll does not come out of their supply.
Now, I'd like to have ashersky answer this with either a Yes or a No: Do you want to have Jorbles target you every day? Feel free to elaborate if you need to, but it'll probably help scum less if you don't. But of course, up to you. I'd rather Jorbles not answer the question, though.
Yes. I think we need town to receive the extra roll every day. Scum receiving it means they could not use the extra roll to help kill the monster, they could use it to store good dice and play bad dice, etc.
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I was thinking that there could be an actual scum power to choose monsters, though. I guess it could just be a power and they have to choose the monster. But if that's so, man, Voltaire should have chosen an easier monster.
For the record, my power is just to know, not to choose, the monster. This makes me agree with you that it is pretty likely someone has the power to choose/alter the monster in some way (because my power exists).
Do you know what we're fighting tomorrow yet?
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Do you know what we're fighting tomorrow yet?
Yes.
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Alright, Jorbles you need to target ashersky. If you're Town you should have no reason to learn anyone else's stored dice.
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Do you know what we're fighting tomorrow yet?
Yes.
And here's what my theory is: Scum can choose what Monsters come out. It makes sense that they are the ones in charge. Then I thought well maybe just one person decides who comes out? But then decided that if that player were to die how would Jimmmmm handle it? So Voltaire's claim makes sense as a viable power. Scum could still be able to choose who comes out, but I'm thinking that may be unlikely because if they were to be given this roll it'd be useless.
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Here briefly.
Thanks for rolling early Jorbles, Walrus, and Voltaire.
I hope I'm not sounding too demanding, but I'm interested in a couple things about your role.
1. Does the player you target use the additionally rolled die from their supply? Or are they just given a dice that they roll?
2. Is the player you target forced to roll the additional die?
1. I'd rather not say as I think exact knowledge of this will help scum.
2. They are not forced to roll, they get to choose.
Alright, thanks for answering. My "plan" is to have you target ashersky to roll an additional die every single day. Town gain very little utility from knowing how many dice someone has stored, so if you're Town I see no problem continually targeting the same person. Especially if the dice they roll does not come out of their supply.
Now, I'd like to have ashersky answer this with either a Yes or a No: Do you want to have Jorbles target you every day? Feel free to elaborate if you need to, but it'll probably help scum less if you don't. But of course, up to you. I'd rather Jorbles not answer the question, though.
I am not comfortable with Jorbles targeting Ashersky again today.
1. It becomes impossible to determine for the rest of us whether Jorbles actually have the role he claims, or if Ashersky uses his own reroll power.
2. Ashersky is getting all the stored dice, and he is nowere near a townread for me.
Actually, I find both Archetype and Ashersky scummy for this proposal. Sounds like a scum plot to get powerroles fast in my ears. And if Jorbles refuses to target someone else I think those three are a likely scumteam.
Personally I think faust should get to reroll, but I am open for everyone except Ashersky and Archetype.
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Alright, Jorbles you need to target ashersky. If you're Town you should have no reason to learn anyone else's stored dice.
I think Jorbles should wait til everybody has rolled before using his power.
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I was thinking that there could be an actual scum power to choose monsters, though. I guess it could just be a power and they have to choose the monster. But if that's so, man, Voltaire should have chosen an easier monster.
For the record, my power is just to know, not to choose, the monster. This makes me agree with you that it is pretty likely someone has the power to choose/alter the monster in some way (because my power exists).
You should consider claiming the next monster, because it could effect what die we should store. For exemple, if we have the ogre next, storing a 1 might be smart.
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I am not comfortable with Jorbles targeting Ashersky again today.
1. It becomes impossible to determine for the rest of us whether Jorbles actually have the role he claims, or if Ashersky uses his own reroll power.
2. Ashersky is getting all the stored dice, and he is nowere near a townread for me.
Actually, I find both Archetype and Ashersky scummy for this proposal. Sounds like a scum plot to get powerroles fast in my ears. And if Jorbles refuses to target someone else I think those three are a likely scumteam.
Personally I think faust should get to reroll, but I am open for everyone except Ashersky and Archetype.
This is a towny worry. The counter argument to me getting extra rolls is that it "helps" me store dice faster, since I roll extra.
You are forgetting that I would just run out of dice faster, unless Jorbles's power gives me dice, which we haven't stated.
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Alright, Jorbles you need to target ashersky. If you're Town you should have no reason to learn anyone else's stored dice.
I think Jorbles should wait til everybody has rolled before using his power.
I am planning to... and I would rather have a town directed choice of the power use than just blindly using it on ashersky every time even though I have a town read on him. Frankly I don't like Archetype's directions, it feels rolefishy to me like he's trying to get me to clarify how my role works exactly.
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I was thinking that there could be an actual scum power to choose monsters, though. I guess it could just be a power and they have to choose the monster. But if that's so, man, Voltaire should have chosen an easier monster.
For the record, my power is just to know, not to choose, the monster. This makes me agree with you that it is pretty likely someone has the power to choose/alter the monster in some way (because my power exists).
You should consider claiming the next monster, because it could effect what die we should store. For exemple, if we have the ogre next, storing a 1 might be smart.
Tomorrow will be the Witch. Again, assuming no-one messes with the monster order.
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Play: 5
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An additional dice being rolled is an additional dice being rolled. It shouldn't matter who it comes from especially since ashersky has said he's alright with it.
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An additional dice being rolled is an additional dice being rolled. It shouldn't matter who it comes from especially since ashersky has said he's alright with it.
I do know at least one good reason why Jorbles can't just target anybody (regardless of alignment). I'm not going to say it yet (as it would help scum to know), but Jorbles can figure it out for sure.
I can confirm that this reason does not apply to me.
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I mean, with his role claimed as it is now, there shouldn't be a reason. As it stands, it can help scum pinpoint their kills based on saved dice. And since Jorbles' scum buddies (if he has any) will already know ashersky's saved dice, it could only help Town to have him continually put in additional dice without finding about anyone else's saved dice. Like I said earlier, Town gain little information from knowing people's dice.
This is of course looking at the claimed role. If he's hiding something, there might be a good reason. But he could be scum and he doesn't want us to lock down his power.
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Play: 4
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Target: 12d6
Total: 33
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Night votes:
pingpongsam - Night 2
Eevee
Archetype - not Night 1
Jorbles - not Night 1
WalrusMcFishSr - not Night 1
chairs - Night 1
ashersky - not Night 1
theorel - Night 1
Voltaire - Night 1
BoxOfDog
xeiron - Night 3
faust - Night 3
By pigeonhole principle, at least one of {Eevee, Box} must have voted Night 1 in order to make Night 1 our fairy night, more likely both. FoS: Box for having posted without annoucing his vote. Box, Eevee, could you tell us your vote?
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Personally I think faust should get to reroll, but I am open for everyone except Ashersky and Archetype.
I don't think it would be optimal if I get the reroll.
-
Also, I urge ashersky not to talk about his result. I can't give a reason, but I hope he'll understand.
I don't know your reasoning, which might be helpful. Anything you can say to elaborate?
Clearly I've painted a target on my back by mentioning anything at all. Buyable bulletproofs really help! I think what I have is worth talking about.
Faust could be town trying to do...something? Or he's scum afraid I caught him? I don't know. Seems like the wrong way for scum to react.
I don't know what to say without giving away too much. Just let me say this: I believe I know what your result is.
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One general remark, because I've already heard several people argue for buying bulletproofs: I don't believe this is generally a good idea. For some roles, it might be, but for most not.
Here's why:
1. As already stated, scum can negate them with a Strongman.
2. They make the game longer. A longer game means us fighting more monsters, while our dice supply is running low. We will end up losing more often. Vig/cop are much better purchases in general, I think.
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Well, this sucks ass;
Play: 2
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I was thinking that there could be an actual scum power to choose monsters, though. I guess it could just be a power and they have to choose the monster. But if that's so, man, Voltaire should have chosen an easier monster.
This is super backwards thinking here.
1. Summoner is on the easy side. Only orc is arguably easier...except scum make us insta-lose.
2. Summoner specifically is easier the earlier it is, due to decreased variance in results. Removing dice from the pool increases the average that we'd need to get a likely win.
3. If we're going to fight hard monsters it'd be better to fight them early. Although, I'm not sure we have to fight hard monsters...let's see:
Shadow, Witch and Ogre are the hard ones. If we go to 2v1 then we have a total of 6 fights, 7 if the game is prolonged. So, with 8 total monsters, we'll have to fight at least 1 hard monster if we go to lylo.
We're fighting the Witch tomorrow, maybe she'll be the only one?
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Walrus: 4
Box: 3
Jorbles: 6
Voltaire: 5
xeiron: 6
ash: 5
faust: 4
PPS: 2
--
Eevee: ?
Archetype: ?
chairs: ?
theorel: ?
Total: 35
if we want 52 at least, we need 17 more
that's an average of 4.25 per player.
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Before today started, I was convinced that ashersky was scum. He said he has a result, and faust is corroborating it somehow, I became less convinced. Then things happened in other games, and I renewed my conviction on this point.
I'm going to vote: ashersky. He never self-voted yesterday, and that has thus far been a 100% accurate tell for him. Until I actually see an alignment flip that disagrees with it, I will hold it as such.
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Before today started, I was convinced that ashersky was scum. He said he has a result, and faust is corroborating it somehow, I became less convinced. Then things happened in other games, and I renewed my conviction on this point.
I'm going to vote: ashersky. He never self-voted yesterday, and that has thus far been a 100% accurate tell for him. Until I actually see an alignment flip that disagrees with it, I will hold it as such.
The whole "result" thing does in no way indicate ashersky's alignment. However, I believe he is town.
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Before today started, I was convinced that ashersky was scum. He said he has a result, and faust is corroborating it somehow, I became less convinced. Then things happened in other games, and I renewed my conviction on this point.
I'm going to vote: ashersky. He never self-voted yesterday, and that has thus far been a 100% accurate tell for him. Until I actually see an alignment flip that disagrees with it, I will hold it as such.
The whole "result" thing does in no way indicate ashersky's alignment. However, I believe he is town.
That's good...it means I don't have to assume you're both scum for it to make sense...because I was coming up with too many scum-reads.
At this juncture, I'm suspicious of ashersky, archetype, and I'm re-suspicious of Jorbles.
I'm not convinced that arch/Jorbles are scum, as I am with ashersky. I'm more suspicious of Jorbles than archetype also, although archetype's suggestion is weird to me...I will fully admit that I don't really get what he's trying to do by having Jorbles target ash over-and-over, and that makes it seem scummy.
This might just be the scum-team. But, I doubt it. Probably one of them at least is town. I'm basing this largely on ash being scum.
If ash is scum then Jorbles looks scummy because he defended the lack of self-vote, made ash roll a second time, claimed town-read on ash, etc.
Arch looks scummy regardless for the weird Jorbles should give ash all the rolls stance.
Would the scum-team really all tie themselves together like this though? It's all WIFOM-y. The only one I'm convinced of is ash.
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By pigeonhole principle, at least one of {Eevee, Box} must have voted Night 1 in order to make Night 1 our fairy night, more likely both. FoS: Box for having posted without annoucing his vote. Box, Eevee, could you tell us your vote?
You are discounting the fact that it is very possible that scum voted N1 and then lied to us about their vote. Given the situation and the privacy of the night voting system I would not be surprised if scum lied about their votes.
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The only one I'm convinced of is ash.
And the only convincing aspect of it is meta that is poor play regardless of alignment? If ashersky self-voted now would it convince you otherwise?
I agree the Jorbles/ashersky/archetype thing is fishy. I don't believe scum would so overtly coordinate. If one flips they all go too quickly. I'm not totally opposed to the idea that one of the 3 might be scum trying to control a Town coordination which can only be done overtly (sans mailman, neighbor, etc).
I can't know if Jorbles' originally targeting ashersky was a Mafia coordinated move but it doesn't seem like a great one if it were. I'm willing to Vote: Archetype because I think he has something to gain by suggesting Jorbles always target ashersky.
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@PPS: you'd think...
I've voted for myself in at least half a dozen games. It's never led to my lynch.
This would seem to indicate that it's in fact not a stupid thing to do as scum.
You'd think it would have caught up with me by now. And yet, in all the games I've played as scum, I haven't self-voted. Too risky, man.
However, looking back not self-voting and scum alignment are less strongly correlated than self-voting and town alignment. (i.e. he didn't self-vote in XXVIII or XIX, He just happened to self-vote in both Innovation and MXXX which are the last 2 games I played with ash).
I still find ash scummy this game for being so far out of the limelight, but I misunderstood the likelihood of his town-self not self-voting. I'll unvote then.
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The only one I'm convinced of is ash.
I agree the Jorbles/ashersky/archetype thing is fishy. I don't believe scum would so overtly coordinate. If one flips they all go too quickly. I'm not totally opposed to the idea that one of the 3 might be scum trying to control a Town coordination which can only be done overtly (sans mailman, neighbor, etc).
I can't know if Jorbles' originally targeting ashersky was a Mafia coordinated move but it doesn't seem like a great one if it were. I'm willing to Vote: Archetype because I think he has something to gain by suggesting Jorbles always target ashersky.
I know Ashersky had great success with Mafia coordination in Mean Girls together with eevee and yuma. When reading the scum quicktopic from that game I get the impression that Ashersky was the driving force in the mafia plan. I would absolutely believe Ashersky would try something as that again, and I think i see similarities in his play in this game.
Ashersky seems to me like a person who not only focus on winning, but also to have fun on the way, and who take pride in pulling off risky plans.
I do not believe Jorbles is mafia, but if he somehow end up targeting Ashersky again today, no matter the excuse, I think we should lynch him.
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I also see no reason for Jorbles to target ashersky again and again.
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I do not believe Jorbles is mafia, but if he somehow end up targeting Ashersky again today, no matter the excuse, I think we should lynch him.
When you say "him" do you mean Jorbles or ashersky?
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Night votes:
pingpongsam - Night 2
Eevee
Archetype - not Night 1
Jorbles - not Night 1
WalrusMcFishSr - not Night 1
chairs - Night 1
ashersky - not Night 1
theorel - Night 1
Voltaire - Night 1
BoxOfDog
xeiron - Night 3
faust - Night 3
By pigeonhole principle, at least one of {Eevee, Box} must have voted Night 1 in order to make Night 1 our fairy night, more likely both. FoS: Box for having posted without annoucing his vote. Box, Eevee, could you tell us your vote?
Agh. I had an unreasonably busy wednesday, and this completely and entirely flipped past my memory.
Uhh, I'm not even sure what voting for Nights means? If anyone would explain, that'd be helpful.
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Night votes:
pingpongsam - Night 2
Eevee
Archetype - not Night 1
Jorbles - not Night 1
WalrusMcFishSr - not Night 1
chairs - Night 1
ashersky - not Night 1
theorel - Night 1
Voltaire - Night 1
BoxOfDog
xeiron - Night 3
faust - Night 3
By pigeonhole principle, at least one of {Eevee, Box} must have voted Night 1 in order to make Night 1 our fairy night, more likely both. FoS: Box for having posted without annoucing his vote. Box, Eevee, could you tell us your vote?
Agh. I had an unreasonably busy wednesday, and this completely and entirely flipped past my memory.
Uhh, I'm not even sure what voting for Nights means? If anyone would explain, that'd be helpful.
When we defeated the troll, we got a reward and the option to vote for witch night the reward should take place.
Did you vote?
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I do not believe Jorbles is mafia, but if he somehow end up targeting Ashersky again today, no matter the excuse, I think we should lynch him.
When you say "him" do you mean Jorbles or ashersky?
Jobles
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When we defeated the troll, we got a reward and the option to vote for witch night the reward should take place.
There have been suspicions that Mafia is selecting which monster to release. Voltaire's power indicates the Witch is the next monster.
Scumslip?
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When we defeated the troll, we got a reward and the option to vote for witch night the reward should take place.
There have been suspicions that Mafia is selecting which monster to release. Voltaire's power indicates the Witch is the next monster.
Scumslip?
You're not serious, are you?
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.. ._.
Okay then.
Anyway!
Uh, before I do so.. What would be the pros and cons of getting the prize Night 1?
Is there some reason we shouldn't get it sooner than later?
I only ask because I didn't even know this was part of the game- I thought you just killed the monster and you went on from there..
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I do not believe Jorbles is mafia, but if he somehow end up targeting Ashersky again today, no matter the excuse, I think we should lynch him.
When you say "him" do you mean Jorbles or ashersky?
Jobles
You say you believe Jorbles to be innocent. If he continues to target ashersky you want a lynch. Both of these I find understandable.
But why a Jorbles lynch?
Would it not be logical to lynch Archetype who is encouraging Jorbles to continue targeting ashersky? Or maybe ashersky? Why would you want to lynch the person you most believe to be innocent amongst the three?
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.. ._.
Okay then.
Anyway!
Uh, before I do so.. What would be the pros and cons of getting the prize Night 1?
Is there some reason we shouldn't get it sooner than later?
I only ask because I didn't even know this was part of the game- I thought you just killed the monster and you went on from there..
Dude, your vote expired after N1. If you didn't use it that is pertinent to our tally of which night we get no-kill protection.
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Read post 722 on page 29 for details on the Troll reward you totally whiffed on, Box.
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Read post 722 on page 29 for details on the Troll reward you totally whiffed on, Box.
GRAGHAOGHALSJEOP@3091741902h:LAKSNC bsf,slakjh
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Vote Count 2.2
BoxOfDog (1): ashersky
theorel (1): faust
Archetype (1): pingpongsam
not voting (9): Eevee, Jorbles, WalrusMcFishSr, chairs, Voltaire, BoxOfDog, xeiron, Archetype, theorel
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Summoner will be defeated.
Target: 12d6
Total: 35
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Eevee is notably absent this D2.
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That makes
Night votes:
pingpongsam - Night 2
Eevee
Archetype - not Night 1
Jorbles - not Night 1
WalrusMcFishSr - not Night 1
chairs - Night 1
ashersky - not Night 1
theorel - Night 1
Voltaire - Night 1
BoxOfDog - no vote
xeiron - Night 3
faust - Night 3
TOTALS
Night 1 - 3
Night 2 - 1 (4)
Night 3 - 2 (4)
unknown - 1
The good news is we can catch people lying. I think it's best if we have the four people who said they voted "not night one" state what night they voted. As currently it looks like the only way our lack of a kill could be explained by our power is if we tied and the tie was broken randomly (that's what would happen in case of a tie, right?)
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And yes, I know a doc or jailkeeper or some such could have blocked the kill, and if that is the case, I think it's good if we know no kill is happening tonight, for example.
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I do not believe Jorbles is mafia, but if he somehow end up targeting Ashersky again today, no matter the excuse, I think we should lynch him.
When you say "him" do you mean Jorbles or ashersky?
Jobles
You say you believe Jorbles to be innocent. If he continues to target ashersky you want a lynch. Both of these I find understandable.
But why a Jorbles lynch?
Would it not be logical to lynch Archetype who is encouraging Jorbles to continue targeting ashersky? Or maybe ashersky? Why would you want to lynch the person you most believe to be innocent amongst the three?
To not encourage scum !Jorbles to do just what i said and have us lynch town !Ashersky.
I do not think Jorbles are scum and Ashersky town, but the principle is to have no scenario where scum would get a choice where one alternative is that town get automaticly lynched, even if such a scenario is unlikely.
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Play: 4
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Egh, I have a headache. (From something else)
I need to go get some sleep.. My brain cannot process all these things in the game.. And.. Yeah.
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TOTALS
Night 1 - 3
Night 2 - 1 (4)
Night 3 - 2 (4)
unknown - 1
The good news is we can catch people lying. I think it's best if we have the four people who said they voted "not night one" state what night they voted. As currently it looks like the only way our lack of a kill could be explained by our power is if we tied and the tie was broken randomly (that's what would happen in case of a tie, right?)
Why is Night3- 2(4)? I'm afraid I don't understand your notation.
If we do # known (max value) we get:
Night 1 - 3 (4)
Night 2 - 1 (6)
Night 3 - 2 (7)
If we split the non-Night 1's evenly among 2 and 3 we get: 1 (3), 2 (4).
4 is the max for night1, So, if we got fairy protection last night it means we should expect either 2 more night 3's OR 3 more night 1's. Is that what you were trying to convey?
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Why is Night3- 2(4)? I'm afraid I don't understand your notation.
All I meant is that there are four cast unknown votes, so theoretically they could all be for Night 2 or Night 3.
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Oh, that makes sense.
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Read post 722 on page 29 for details on the Troll reward you totally whiffed on, Box.
GRAGHAOGHALSJEOP@3091741902h:LAKSNC bsf,slakjh
vote: Box. If I were scum trying to confuse the vote, this is EXACTLY what I would be doing. "Oh, sorry I missed the vote guys!"
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...and I don't want to have to defend this right now so I'll claim headache need sleep so you guys can work out my counterargument I'll cop to later.
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I understand your concern about Box, but I really think it's just Box. It fits the way I've seen him play.
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Hey, haven't posted for a while, thought I should weigh in.
I voted for the N2 fairy power, mostly because I just thought that without a night kill, D2 could stand to just be a repeat of D1, with lots of hemming and hawing and baseless accusations. I thought that the hard evidence of a night kill would lead to some more focused discussion, and then we could have a chance to test our hypothesis N2 without attrition, and then a chance to revise it D3. As it stands I don't feel a whole lot more confident in my reads one way or the other.
Yesterday's other prominent wagon was Voltaire. I still think there might be something there. Apparently he has this crazy oracle power, which is neat, but not ultra helpful, and the powers are distributed without regard to alignment, right? I just feel like he's acting differently than I have seen him in the past, although I can't really put my finger on it. Not quite as active perhaps.
Seems like active, helpful theory building discussion from xeiron, theorel, and pps. Town points to them.
Anti-town points to Box for not being on the ball. Maybe even scum points for his reaction to this episode, as well as other past incidences that have been discussed. I think it's more likely that it was just an oversight, but still...get on the ball! I was considering voting here, but:
That whole exchange between ash and Arch seemed really, really weird. Like, when I first read it, I thought, what? Did I miss something? Surely I must be misunderstanding something. But a reread didn't help. Confusion points and scum points to both of them, and especially Arch-- I'll vote: Archetype for now.
With regards to the Summoner, well, I guess let's do the best we can and see how it goes from there? Haha. How close are we to the end of rolling? I think a ~90% confidence level is reasonable for being safe without being wasteful.
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You all wonder why I can't change my style? Thank theo.
vote: ashersky
You realize this is ludicrous. Do I gave to just vote myself as the first post of every game I play?
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You realize this is ludicrous. Do I gave to just vote myself as the first post of every game I play?
Honestly? ...yes.
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I understand your concern about Box, but I really think it's just Box. It fits the way I've seen him play.
How do you think scum!Box would play?
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You all wonder why I can't change my style? Thank theo.
vote: ashersky
You realize this is ludicrous. Do I gave to just vote myself as the first post of every game I play?
Also, I would protest that Theorel's giant "ban ashersky from f.ds" post in the rules thread negates any ridiculous read he has on me here. It's unfair to me, and the rest of the players in this game, to let him do that. We are all still in various games. That was hugely uncalled for.
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I ask that game and forum mods address Theorel's thinly veiled request immediately. If he feels that way, how can he play this game, or any other I am currently in?
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ash...
1. this is what I mean by "see what it does to the community"
2. this is another appeal to emotion
I have a null read on you here, but this sort of "defense" pushes you to the scummy side of things for me.
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ash...
1. this is what I mean by "see what it does to the community"
2. this is another appeal to emotion
I have a null read on you here, but this sort of "defense" pushes you to the scummy side of things for me.
ATE is valid (and often scummy) to use in a game.
My bigger point is that Theorel wrote a post in a non-game thread about my actions in ongoing games with a conclusion that I should be BANNED from f.ds. You see no issue with that? If he wants me banned, PM the mods, maybe. But a public post about ongoing games/players during those games is not okay.
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My bigger point is that Theorel wrote a post in a non-game thread about my actions in ongoing games with a conclusion that I should be BANNED from f.ds. You see no issue with that? If he wants me banned, PM the mods, maybe. But a public post about ongoing games/players during those games is not okay.
In my opinion, what theorel did was properly "generic"-ized. What you are doing is not (saying he wants you banned ie un-generic-izing his comments). What you did in another game was not (see that game for details).
I didn't have a scum read on you in this game before, but now...I am left to wonder if you are trying to increase your cred in one game by acting this way in both. You've done something like that before (/outing in the queses) Which is a shitty situation for me, because how do I talk about that?
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Better way to phrase it: I don't want to have to play the game outside the game (another way this happens is "I saw so-and-so was online around deadline but didn't post" or "I checked when so-and-so was last online and they weren't online during the entire night, so they're town" and that sort of thing). But since in the past you have played the game outside the game (/outing of queues) I have to consider it with you.
I thought theorel's post nicely left ongoing games out of the picture (aside from the fact that obviously an ongoing situation caused everyone to think about the issue generically). But now you have made it part of this game.
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Better way to phrase it: I don't want to have to play the game outside the game (another way this happens is "I saw so-and-so was online around deadline but didn't post" or "I checked when so-and-so was last online and they weren't online during the entire night, so they're town" and that sort of thing). But since in the past you have played the game outside the game (/outing of queues) I have to consider it with you.
I thought theorel's post nicely left ongoing games out of the picture (aside from the fact that obviously an ongoing situation caused everyone to think about the issue generically). But now you have made it part of this game.
Volt, I'm part of this game. Generic or not, those comments were about me, and everyone in these games knew it.
I want everyone to just focus on the games, not meta game me by comparing ongoing games simultaneously.
Isn't that what you want?
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I want everyone to just focus on the games, not meta game me by comparing ongoing games simultaneously.
Isn't that what you want?
Yes. I agree there's an unacceptable amount of crossover going on. But the topic has to be talked about. Has to has to has to. If that thread were locked and then unlocked the moment these two games end, that would be my best-case scenario.
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I voted for Night 2.
Vote: chairs
Jorbles, its up to you what you want to do with your power. Just tryjng to give some advice.
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ashersky, I think this could probably be better handled after the game.
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Can we just keep discussion to the events that have happened in this game as much as possible? I don't care what's happening outside of this game, if that discussion becomes more important to players than this game it's going to derail the whole thing.
Anyhow Archetype's posts regarding me targeting ash again and again read scummy to me, but I always read Arch as scummy, so I really just have a null read on him.
Here's my theory for the fairy vote.
Also looking at the Night vote results it looks like what probably happened is that those of us who didn't think N1 was a good idea probably split our votes between n2 and n3, and without a concerted effort amongst us a scum voting block (aided by maybe more than a couple townies looking at the claimed results) made a concerted effort to vote n1, some of them probably lied and said they voted n2 or n3, some of them may honestly be claiming they voted n1. Unless someone has another explanation for the no kill tonight that's what I'm going to assume happened. (Someone might have a reason and just also have a good reason not to come forward, that's fine, it's not crucial that I be corrected at this stage of the game.) But hey, it could be worse, this buys us a bit more time to find scum.
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Can we just keep discussion to the events that have happened in this game as much as possible? I don't care what's happening outside of this game, if that discussion becomes more important to players than this game it's going to derail the whole thing.
That's what I'm saying!
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Here's my theory for the fairy vote.
Also looking at the Night vote results it looks like what probably happened is that those of us who didn't think N1 was a good idea probably split our votes between n2 and n3, and without a concerted effort amongst us a scum voting block (aided by maybe more than a couple townies looking at the claimed results) made a concerted effort to vote n1, some of them probably lied and said they voted n2 or n3, some of them may honestly be claiming they voted n1. Unless someone has another explanation for the no kill tonight that's what I'm going to assume happened. (Someone might have a reason and just also have a good reason not to come forward, that's fine, it's not crucial that I be corrected at this stage of the game.) But hey, it could be worse, this buys us a bit more time to find scum.
I think this is probably right. Without being able to coordinate N2 or N3, the "not N1" people probably split. If any number of scum voted N1, that probably carried.
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What do we think about recent low rollers like Theorel and PPS? They both rolled under 4.5 after it was mentioned they needed to roll 4.5, right?
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I think my already shaky faith in using roll values as any indicator of alignment went straight out the window.
Rolling low happens and it sucks and it feels like your gonna get grilled for something you have no control over whatsoever.
I do think we want low rollers to roll first the next day. Also, any logical organization to roll order would be good. That is, any organization of the rolling that diminishes scum's ability to hide low-rolling efforts is great but using a one-time (or maybe more) value is a poor method of scum detection.
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If any player in this game has a problem with another player in this game, you are welcome to discuss it with the Mods in your Personal QT. Please do not discuss other ongoing games or issues related to them in this thread.
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Play: 1. If anybody can force a reroll for me, please do.
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@ashersky: I'm posting in the ongoing game, so as not to bring it up here. But I don't think you should be banned.
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Read post 722 on page 29 for details on the Troll reward you totally whiffed on, Box.
GRAGHAOGHALSJEOP@3091741902h:LAKSNC bsf,slakjh
vote: Box. If I were scum trying to confuse the vote, this is EXACTLY what I would be doing. "Oh, sorry I missed the vote guys!"
No..
I didn't even know there was a vote..
I think my already shaky faith in using roll values as any indicator of alignment went straight out the window.
Rolling low happens and it sucks and it feels like your gonna get grilled for something you have no control over whatsoever.
I do think we want low rollers to roll first the next day. Also, any logical organization to roll order would be good. That is, any organization of the rolling that diminishes scum's ability to hide low-rolling efforts is great but using a one-time (or maybe more) value is a poor method of scum detection.
Ah! Here we go.
Thank you Ping.
I got a low roll, and I am SURE that in the near future I will be torn to shreds for it.
If I could have played a higher roll, I definitely would have, no question.
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@ash: I stopped voting you for not self-voting before you self-voted once I reread some games where you were town not self-voting. I realized it's a single-directional thing. (i.e. self-voting = town, not self-voting does NOT = scum).
I apologize for bringing up other active game at all...I didn't do it intentionally.
Here's my revised read, free from other game mentions:
I started developing a scum-read on ash just before day1 deadline (over the weekend basically). Day started, ash claimed a result, and I lessened that scum-read. I started thinking about other things, relevant to this game. Then I thought on ash's meta some more, and decided that self-voting is really an alignment tell, and in spite of everything he never did it day1.
Then pps challenged me on that, and I looked back at the past 4 games. Although he DID vote himself in RMMVIII and MXXX (where he was town, and I was playing), he did NOT do so in MXXIX or MXXVIII where he was town and I wasn't playing. So, my perception of his self-vote meta is wrong, it should really only be a town indicator, and maybe a slight scum-indicator.
I still think ash is a little scummy. He's usually center-stage as town. He was also pretty center-stage as scum with his fake-claim getting mcmc lynched. I find him a little scummy for not taking any gambits, because as he noted in his MXXVII quote the reason he doesn't self-vote is that it's "too risky". This makes me think that scum-ash is a little less risk-taking than town-ash, and could explain why he didn't become a center of attention here.
It's not as strong as when I FALSELY believed that he always self-voted as town. But, that's where my scumminess on ash is, it's based on past behavior.
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unvote
Now that Theorel explained the whole self-vote thing. Let's hope we can bury that issue.
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I voted for Night 2.
Vote: chairs
Jorbles, its up to you what you want to do with your power. Just tryjng to give some advice.
What's the case on chairs? I think I missed it.
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Play: 1. If anybody can force a reroll for me, please do.
Given theo rerolled his 6 D1, two possibilities:
1) scum has a power to force a rerolled
2) theo has the power to reroll, which seems scummy if he chose to reroll his 6
Which is more likely? I think if town held that power, someone else would have rerolled D1.
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Read post 722 on page 29 for details on the Troll reward you totally whiffed on, Box.
GRAGHAOGHALSJEOP@3091741902h:LAKSNC bsf,slakjh
vote: Box. If I were scum trying to confuse the vote, this is EXACTLY what I would be doing. "Oh, sorry I missed the vote guys!"
No..
I didn't even know there was a vote..
I think my already shaky faith in using roll values as any indicator of alignment went straight out the window.
Rolling low happens and it sucks and it feels like your gonna get grilled for something you have no control over whatsoever.
I do think we want low rollers to roll first the next day. Also, any logical organization to roll order would be good. That is, any organization of the rolling that diminishes scum's ability to hide low-rolling efforts is great but using a one-time (or maybe more) value is a poor method of scum detection.
Ah! Here we go.
Thank you Ping.
I got a low roll, and I am SURE that in the near future I will be torn to shreds for it.
If I could have played a higher roll, I definitely would have, no question.
You know scum says the same things, right?
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Play: 1. If anybody can force a reroll for me, please do.
With this, I think Jorbles should make Chairs roll additional dice. I am also curious in how many dice chairs rolled when playing the 1, if that is possible to find out.
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I am also curious in how many dice chairs rolled when playing the 1, if that is possible to find out.
I thought we all agreed this was bad play. I mean, I'm not wholly opposed to it but I do think it is bad play. I would have liked to explain how I came to a low roll. The thing is, if we are all detailing our rolls/stores/etc. then scum has information from truth-telling town and town has a distorted picture from lying scum. I don't think Town could resolve the lies until it was too late if there were any real investment in some organized roll-strategy such as detailing stored dies, etc.
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@pps: in this case we would have a better idea if chairs were scum.
i.e. if he's town he probably only rolled 1 die. If he's scum he probably rolled 3.
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I agree. But if he is scum he will lie and we won't have any reliable means of detecting it or if we did it will be too late to fully resolve. Say we had a role-power that sees a target's stored dice. Chairs would have to be targeted and then the role-claim would have to be made and believed. Meanwhile scum is picking apart the team based on really good information for target selection.
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I think that lying there is non-productive for scum. It gets them one mislynch for a scum lynch. It's also useful for town if we came up with a guilty result on chairs.
The question is whether it's useful for town to investigate if it turned out that chairs was truthfully rolling only one die.
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So, are you proposing we all claim our rolls/stores each day or that a singled out low-roller must do it at the crowd's behest?
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I'm saying that an investigation would be useful if it turned up guilty on chairs.
I don't think chairs claiming does any good at all.
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And to clarify I think an investigation that said "chairs rolled 3 dice" is essentially a guilty result.
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And to clarify I think an investigation that said "chairs rolled 3 dice" is essentially a guilty result.
Or even that "chairs has two stored dice".
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So, are you proposing we all claim our rolls/stores each day or that a singled out low-roller must do it at the crowd's behest?
I am thinking that Jorbles should make chais roll again.
Jorbles also said he could determine the number of die his target rolled. I do not think it was ever clarified whether he meant the original dice rolled, or the new ones, but if it is the former I would like to hear the results.
And even if Chairs is town and rolled 1 die, I think he should roll again so he can contribute more to the total.
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But if he's scum and rolled 3 dice, I don't want him contributing more to his storage...
And if he's town rolling 1 die, I don't really want him using up his supply...although, it brings up a question:
Should we consider lynching someone who has stated they won't be contributing as much in the future?
Although presumably if his supply is that low he has something helpful to offset it. It would suck to have a low supply with no positive to counteract it. So, that's an argument against lynching him for his "low supply".
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Catching up from the start of the day, I'm sorry I was gone for so long.
I didnt vote at all (for the fairy), I totally missed the post about the reward completely. :/
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And if chairs is town and rolled 3 dice, but got ye ol' triple snake eyes?
This is why I'm asking for a reroll!
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I can only verify the number he rolled on the reroll. So it wouldn't give us any information on whether chairs rolled a single 1, snake eyes or the worst D&D stat possible in his initial roll. Not sure if it's worth it.
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I can only verify the number he rolled on the reroll second roll. So it wouldn't give us any information on whether chairs rolled a single 1, snake eyes or the worst D&D stat possible in his initial roll. Not sure if it's worth it.
edit: for clarity.
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I'm not too excited about most talk having been about theory and the minigame still, but at least I'm caught up!
I think 95% is too high of s a confidence to require, but i'd say it depends a bit on who is left to role. Letting town store better rolls is splendid, letting scum do it really isnt.
Being alive in three games with many of the same people and then being totally without access for five days makes remembering your reads unfortunately hard.
Jorbles seems clearly the towniest, followed by pingpongsam and faust.
I dont have a strong read on ashersky, which is unusual.
theorel has been.. different than usual? the fact he hasnt been the sole dominant theory force isnt scummy in itself - it just so happens that both pps and xeiron are also good with that stuff, but the reroll was quite conceivably a scum action and his reads feel very off for a logical person like him. the certainty on the ash read when he knows his own history and has full control on changing it was weird.
archetype drawing the attention on himself with the proposal to jorbles is weird, but there are ways scum could get great benefits from it. the reward we got for beating the troll was monstruously good, so scum will likely have quite a few tricks up their sleeves as well.
I'd like to move us towards suspicions and reads within the mafia game, so I'll vote: archetype and suggest others start voting for their scum reads as well. we can play the theory game on the side!
speaking of which, should i roll?
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I think you should go ahead and roll.
I'm going to vote: theorel. OMGUS a bit, I suppose, but I'm really beginning to wonder if scum aren't getting high rolls and then using the "low rolls = lynch" argument to push easy mislynches... admittedly, in part because I just rolled ye ol' triple eyeballs.
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I think chairs should re-roll. I think if he's scum and gets to store additional dice that would be offset by his playing a higher roll for us now against the Summoner.
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Night votes:
pingpongsam - Night 2
Eevee - no vote
Archetype - Night 2
Jorbles - not Night 1
WalrusMcFishSr - Night 2
chairs - Night 1
ashersky - not Night 1
theorel - Night 1
Voltaire - Night 1
BoxOfDog - no vote
xeiron - Night 3
faust - Night 3
TOTALS
Night 1 - 3
Night 2 - 3-5
Night 3 - 2-4
So, we have at least one liar, or N1 wasn't our fairy night. I would like Jorbles and ashersky to state which night they voted for.
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Why does it at all matter that chairs would be adding to this monster? Why not have someone who we don't think is scum storing a high dice add to fighting this monster?
What's so special about letting chairs do it?
If he's scum, I'm opposed to him rolling again. I'd rather have TOWN add results to this monster.
If he's town, I don't see a good reason to have him roll again over anyone else. And can see a couple reasons why it's still not a great idea (i.e. if he has a low supply and dice are taken from his supply).
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Note: I'm referring purely to using Jorbles' ability on chairs. If the scum that can force rerolls wants to make chairs reroll, be my guest.
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I understand your concern about Box, but I really think it's just Box. It fits the way I've seen him play.
How do you think scum!Box would play?
I think he would go by something more simple, i.e. just tell us the wrong night. But of course, I haven't seen him as scum yet.
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Catching up from the start of the day, I'm sorry I was gone for so long.
I didnt vote at all (for the fairy), I totally missed the post about the reward completely. :/
This is something I expect from Box, but not from you. I mean, it was clear all along that we would get a reward, surely you want to see what it is at the end of the day?
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If he's town, I don't see a good reason to have him roll again over anyone else. And can see a couple reasons why it's still not a great idea (i.e. if he has a low supply and dice are taken from his supply).
He has requested a re-roll, so I think we can discount this option.
I agree that Jorbles and ash should state what night they voted for.
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If he's town, I don't see a good reason to have him roll again over anyone else. And can see a couple reasons why it's still not a great idea (i.e. if he has a low supply and dice are taken from his supply).
He has requested a re-roll, so I think we can discount this option.
Also, we have the most to gain from rerolling a 1. We could gain 5! Or just 2 or something, yes, but if we have a 3 or 4 re-roll...you see what I mean.
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If he's town, I don't see a good reason to have him roll again over anyone else. And can see a couple reasons why it's still not a great idea (i.e. if he has a low supply and dice are taken from his supply).
He has requested a re-roll, so I think we can discount this option.
Also, we have the most to gain from rerolling a 1. We could gain 5! Or just 2 or something, yes, but if we have a 3 or 4 re-roll...you see what I mean.
I think I get what theorel is saying - if we don't have a town power that rerolls (only gives you a new roll to add to existing rolls) and you believe I'm scum (I'm not, but I did just throw down a 1, which is the basis of his argument here) then it's preferable to have someone who's already giving out high rolls roll again on the presumption that they're more likely to be town and thus more likely to provide (another) high number.
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Oh. I see. I think we decided we didn't want Jorbles/ash to clarify how the power works, so it could be either, right? Hrmph.
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I think it is a given that Jorbles targets someone. Ideally a Townie because as I understand it the additional roll is an additional storage opportunity.
There has been argument Jorbles should not target ashersky again. Let us assume ashersky is town and let us assume that Jorbles's next unwittingly targets scum. Has scum gained any useful information that what is already public knowledge about the power... has scum gained anything other than the additional storage opportunity?
As for a re-roll power, as opposed to an additional roll power, well, we haven't seen evidence that exists. If scum had it I would have thought it would come out yesterday (unless the receiver knows who is targeting them?) and if Town had it I think we would have seen it yesterday as well or definitely already today (unless they haven't logged in yet). If someone is the re-roll-capable power then they need to stay low because it's a huge Town asset. Jorbles is as well though I think he did well to claim D1 to save his lynch. He seems an obvious N1 NK since his power is repeatable and is wholly pro-town.
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As for a re-roll power, as opposed to an additional roll power, well, we haven't seen evidence that exists. If scum had it I would have thought it would come out yesterday (unless the receiver knows who is targeting them?) and if Town had it I think we would have seen it yesterday as well or definitely already today (unless they haven't logged in yet). If someone is the re-roll-capable power then they need to stay low because it's a huge Town asset. Jorbles is as well though I think he did well to claim D1 to save his lynch. He seems an obvious N1 NK since his power is repeatable and is wholly pro-town.
Scum has a reroll power unless theorel is scum. This is my understanding.
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Oh snap, I forgot there was the mysterious theorel re-roll yesterday.
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I think scum has a reroll power regardless of how you look at it.
Either I rerolled my 6 and am scum, or scum rerolled my 6 and I'm town.
There is no case where town has a reroll power.
I think scum would rather not use their reroll power today, because it removes the possibility that I did it to myself.
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I think scum has a reroll power regardless of how you look at it.
Either I rerolled my 6 and am scum, or scum rerolled my 6 and I'm town.
There is no case where town has a reroll power.
I think scum would rather not use their reroll power today, because it removes the possibility that I did it to myself.
There is also the possibility that you have the power to swap a played and stored die, and you made it look like a re-roll.
Note that I don't think this is likely atm, but I do want us to make sure we're not forgetting possibilities.
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I'm feeling fairly certain Jorbles is town by virtue of his usage of his power. If he fails to use his power then I'll reconsider that position.
As such, his D1 wagon should be scrutinized against those on a known Town wagon, namely, EFHW:
Voltaire, Walrus, chairs and Archetype shared the wagons.
I have a meeting to run to very shortly but just quickly here is my suspicions against those people in order of scummiest to towniest:
Archetype
Walrus
chairs
Voltaire
I will elaborate later when I can.
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I'm feeling fairly certain Jorbles is town by virtue of his usage of his power. If he fails to use his power then I'll reconsider that position.
As such, his D1 wagon should be scrutinized against those on a known Town wagon, namely, EFHW:
Voltaire, Walrus, chairs and Archetype shared the wagons.
I have a meeting to run to very shortly but just quickly here is my suspicions against those people in order of scummiest to towniest:
Archetype
Walrus
chairs
Voltaire
I will elaborate later when I can.
I'm interested in why you find Voltaire to be the towniest of that group as he's still one of the scummier players in my mind. I think there's probably something to this line of reasoning, I would expect some scum to be on both town wagons. Walrus and Voltaire, can both be viewed as self preserving voters (we were all on the chopping block for our low rolls), which makes me want to look at chairs and Archetype harder. Actually with chairs claim of rolling three 1s I'm willing to put my vote on chairs for now. Trying to lynch mysel (I know this argument works depending on your read of me, and EFHW makes me think he was opportunistic scum pushing a wagon.) I also think scum might be realizing that the rewards are great for town to beat monsters, and that they should try more actively to sabotage especially since the lynch didn't end up going towards the low rollers of yesterday.
vote: chairs
I voted for night 3.
I do intend to use my power, but who I use it on I have not determined yet. I will not use it until everyone has contributed to the monster fight though.
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We really should focus more on scumhunting now.
I'll give you a list of reads:
Walrus - two low-ish dice plays (3 and 4) and he pretty much sealed EFHW's fate D1. His posts seemed scummy to me before. Scum read.
Eevee - The only person he has ever voted for in this game is Archetype! That just seems strange. Add in the fact that he supposedly didn't know about the night vote stuff, and general lurkiness, and I get a scum read here.
chairs - a 1, seriously? And then he claimed having rolled 3 dice, which is just so unlikely. Also was a late addition to the EFHW wagon, and pushing Voltaire before that. Leaning scum.
theorel - weird re-roll, started the EFHW wagon. His N1 vote is less scummy now that we know that scum is lying. Still slight scum read.
Voltaire - low-roller D1, okay roll today. Helps keeping the game going. Pretty null here.
xeiron - good rolls (5 and 6). Pushed Voltaire to L-1 and EFHW to L-3 D1, which I don't like. Not much else stands out. I'm null here as well.
BoxOfDOG - Ahh, Box. I don't like all his crazy play, but it's just what he does IMO. Would have made a great policy lynch D1, but it's too late for that. Didn't jump the EFHW wagon, which speaks in his favor. Slight slight town read.
ashersky - his dice contributions are solid, and his other contributions I think as well. Slight town read.
Archetype - Some efforts in scumhunting D1, which seem different from what he usually does. Contributed a 6, which is pro-town. His last-minute vote for EFHW D1 seems townie, because EFHW was going to die anyway. Leaning town.
pingpongsam - Seems reasonable and pro-town to me. I haven't seen him play before, so I won't give him a strong read, but I'm leaning town.
Jorbles - I believe his claim, and I think he is town (even if he's scum, his power is rather good for town). We shouldn't lynch him.
Vote: Walrus
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Walrus: 4
Box: 3
Jorbles: 6
Voltaire: 5
xeiron: 6
ash: 5
faust: 4
PPS: 2
theorel: 4
chairs: 1
--
Eevee: ?
Archetype: ?
So that takes us to 40. So, Eevee and arch to give the last push...that I don't love. Need decent numbers to give us a good push.
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Actually, thinking about it maybe it's good. I mean they're suspected, but this is a chance for them to contribute well. I'm not significantly suspicious of either of them, so I think they can contribute well and maybe reduce others' suspicions.
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Also for reference...
Unofficial Vote Count:
Box (1): chairs
arch (3): pps, walrus, eevee
chairs (2): arch, jorbles
walrus (1): faust
7 to lynch. So, we're doing fine, but no one be stupid and end the day before Eevee and Arch roll their dice. :)
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Voltaire: Admittedly, I read him scum from the get-go D1 but his quick wagon convinced me that scum was looking for a quick lynch. While I have fantasized of doing it myself, a D1 scum-bussing is so risky and the likelihood that the teammates will go for it is so close to zero to be considered an impossibility. Shortly after his wagon alleviated, a pro-town Voltaire emerged and stayed. He is active with suggestions that can always be skewed as scum manipulation but I'm not feeling that.
chairs: I've got no meta on chairs but his play seem to be rather straightforward with no real regard with following any protocol. My cursory read is null but if I try to read him as scum he is playing very poorly. If I try to read him as Town he appears to be marching to the beat of his own drum which is fantastic for derailing scum manipulations. If the game is to be dumb scum then I'll take it at least for D1/D2. A counter argument might be that I should punish poor Town play. If that is the case I'd rather look towards Box or Walrus. There are better lynches unless the whole scum team is Box, Walrus and chairs.
Walrus: A similar read as to chairs but I sense far more effort to blend. There seems to be a quiet desperation to stay out of scrutiny and to appeal to emotion when scrutinized. Not getting any of that off of chairs. Consistently middling roller. I would not at all be surprised to see this guy flip scum. If he is Town, well, I'm not seeing a great deal of value in him there, either. I sense some Mafia play with this one so I'm okay with his lynch as it isn't strictly poor Town play that is being punished.
Archetype: Impossible to get a wagon rolling on him D1. Was found on the two towniest D1 wagons. Votes without substantiating his vote. The whole weirdness surrounding trying to direct Jorbles' power towards ashersky. I just have no good reads on him at all. His only saving move was playing a 6 D1 which would be supremely cred-boosting. While I think low-rolls are not great indicators, I do think roll patterns will prove important. If he does roll low I won't count it against him (even though I am already voting him) but if he rolls high I'll soften my position some.
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Also for reference...
Unofficial Vote Count:
Box (1): chairs
arch (3): pps, walrus, eevee
chairs (2): arch, jorbles
walrus (1): faust
7 to lynch. So, we're doing fine, but no one be stupid and end the day before Eevee and Arch roll their dice. :)
Also, don't forget the additional roll from Jorbles.
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Eevee/Archetype, the sooner you roll the better.
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I'm getting kinda tired of ashersky saying "Scum says that", it's repetitive and annoying.
Frankly.. I don't care.
Anyway.
Here is my scum list:
Archetype
Walrus
I've been suspicious of Archetype since D1, so I don't really need to explain myself there..
Walrus I've been reading over a few times, and he doesn't seem very trustworthy anymore. I've also taken into account what other people have said about him, and some of it has made sense.
I'll move forward, and Vote: Archetype once again.
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I chose N2.
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I chose N2.
Should be obvious why, in addition to all the other reasons.
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Frankly
Scum says frankly a lot.
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Eevee/Archetype, the sooner you roll the better.
Agree with this. There is no science to it. We need high rolls.
(Will be hilarious when Jimmmmm rolls twelve 1s.)
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Eevee/Archetype, the sooner you roll the better.
Agree with this. There is no science to it. We need high rolls.
(Will be hilarious when Jimmmmm rolls twelve 1s.)
I can only hope.
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Has walrus posted lately?
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I think scum has a reroll power regardless of how you look at it.
Either I rerolled my 6 and am scum, or scum rerolled my 6 and I'm town.
There is no case where town has a reroll power.
I think scum would rather not use their reroll power today, because it removes the possibility that I did it to myself.
There is also the possibility that you have the power to swap a played and stored die, and you made it look like a re-roll.
Note that I don't think this is likely atm, but I do want us to make sure we're not forgetting possibilities.
This is a good point. There is no way of knowing why Theorel canceled his 6 and rerolled.
He doesn't seem keen to cancel his 4 and try for a better number.
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Frankly
Scum says frankly a lot.
For fun, I put the thread into print mode and searched the word "honestly". Results were interesting.
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Has walrus posted lately?
I'm pretty busy tonight...I'll post something substantial tomorrow morning/afternoon for sure
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Has walrus posted lately?
I'm pretty busy tonight...I'll post something substantial tomorrow morning/afternoon for sure
Honestly?
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Has walrus posted lately?
I'm pretty busy tonight...I'll post something substantial tomorrow morning/afternoon for sure
Honestly?
Indubitably :)
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Vote Count 2.3
theorel (1): chairs
Archetype (4): pingpongsam, WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, BoxOfDog
chairs (2): Archetype, Jorbles
WalrusMcFishSr (1): faust
not voting (4): Voltaire, xeiron, theorel, ashersky
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Summoner will be defeated.
Target: 12d6
Total: 40
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We better beat this thing.
Play:6
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Target: 12d6
Total: 46
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Play: 3
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So night votes fell like this, assuming everyone is telling the truth:
Night 1: 3 (chairs, theorel, Voltaire)
Night 2: 4 (pps, Archetype, Walrus, ashersky)
Night 3: 3 (xeiron, faust, Jorbles)
no vote: 2 (Box, Eevee)
This is quite good actually, because it pretty much rules out Night 3 as our fairy night. That means that by the start of the next day, we know if someone lied.
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I'd also say it's good because we might still have a fairy night left!
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Target: 12d6
Total: 49
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Okay, according to anydice that gives us
49 13.76
Or 100-13.76 = 86.24% chance of beating the monster. This is actually pretty good, I'd be a bit more comfortable if it bumped over 50 which would put us in the 90th percentile, but I could live with this. I will reveal a small thing about my power, these are not magic dice that get added to the pool, they come from someone's pool of dice (I'm not saying whose). That said do people think I should use my power or are we better off conserving dice for the Witch?
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All right. I'm here, as promised! Honestly, frankly, definitely, etc. What's happened since I've posted last?
Well, first of all that whole kerfuffle over the rules thread and metaplay and so on. I really don't know what to say about that...it doesn't concern me so much and I'm glad it's over.
Ash self-voting or not? Don't really care. Seems pretty flimsy to me.
It seems almost certain to me that scum has the power to reroll, given it was played on Theorel's 6 D1. Has it been used today? I haven't seen anything about it. Maybe they're trying to keep a low profile, or maybe it was a one-shot or something. It's possible I guess that scum!Theorel played a high roll and then used it on himself to throw people off the scent, or something like that, but that seems like a pretty audacious and risky plan.
Has Jorbles used his ability today? It looks like we're at about an 86% chance right now, unless something happens to change something (which seems quite possible). 86% is not bad, but if there's not really a penalty for Jorbles' power, I guess we should go for it. On the other hand, if there is a drawback that I don't know about, 86% is again not awful. I think Jorbles should use his judgment as to whether he uses his power and if so, whom he would target. I don't think we need any more public details about the power for now.
Does it really matter who gets to use the reroll? I mean, didn't we just establish that Jorbles can tell what they rolled anyway? So it doesn't seem like scum could abuse that too much, even if they were selected...wouldn't they just play whatever they got, and if they tried something funny like storing it or something then Jorbles would surely know about it? I don't know, that's a lot of questions, I'm just trying to fully understand the situation here.
Null on Eevee for missing the vote. I agree it's more inexcusable for Eevee than for Box, but at the same time, he seemed actually MIA for awhile and I would guess that scum would have voted (or at least lied about it) just to avoid attention.
PPS has criticized me a couple of times, once just now and right before D1 ended. So you get some OMGUS points for that :P. "Quiet desperation" sounds pretty awesome, like maybe a Crosby Stills & Nash song, but I don't know if I could pull it off. Yeah, that AtE was pretty lame. But the E's involved were legit. You don't see me clamoring to go sign up for Toy Story or anything like that (ugh, again, I should keep meta to a minimum). But I'm not going to be a party pooper here...I'll keep trying the best I can, just remember that I am inexperienced and maybe not as invested as some of you are in this game.
But for the most part I've found PPS towny, so no scum points, just OMGUS points. faust voted for me too, but I don't really have any read on him right now honestly. I'll have to go back and look. I guess slight scum read for being unmemorable to me.
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I say use it.
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Jorbles, your power also lets the targets potentially store additional dice, right? In that case I think we should use it.
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Looks like Jorbles PPE'd me, and did reveal an aspect of his power. Hmmm. Am I the only one getting more worried about conservation of dice? Maybe you can create more dice if you simultaneously create an equal number of anti-dice. Oh ho ho ho. But seriously. I'm not quite so gung ho about the idea if there's a cost involved. I still think Jorbles should decide (as he ultimately would anyway).
Also, I just remembered, didn't I vote for faust briefly this game? Hmmm. Goes to show just how unmemorable he was, or maybe just how bad my memory is haha
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crickets?
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All right! Time to write about all the important things that have happened since my last post, nearly 24 hours ago:
crickets?
Extremely scummy. The cricket is a very untrustworthy animal. You ever notice how they'll be chirping, and then when you get close or turn on the light, they stop abruptly? Why the secrecy, crickets? What are you trying to hide?
And don't even mention Jiminy Cricket. He looks helpful but he has a sinister ulterior agenda.
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Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs.
That's 5 days or so, right? We're in okay shape, but maybe a goal of Wednesday night as a soft deadline?
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Also, Faust, you need to give a bit more information if you want me to not claim/discuss stuff about what I learned.
Anyone want to fess up to targeting Theorel last night?
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play: 4
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Sorry, been busy...looks like I've been rerolled again...which is weird for scum to do to me. Unfortunately, my result didn't get any better.
I need to read to see what's been happening.
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Sorry, been busy...looks like I've been rerolled again...which is weird for scum to do to me. Unfortunately, my result didn't get any better.
I need to read to see what's been happening.
Definitely weird for scum to do to you. Is it weird to do to yourself?
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Sorry, been busy...looks like I've been rerolled again...which is weird for scum to do to me. Unfortunately, my result didn't get any better.
I need to read to see what's been happening.
Definitely weird for scum to do to you. Is it weird to do to yourself?
It's not weird if they're trying to get us to think that he can reroll his own roll.
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Sorry, been busy...looks like I've been rerolled again...which is weird for scum to do to me. Unfortunately, my result didn't get any better.
I need to read to see what's been happening.
Definitely weird for scum to do to you. Is it weird to do to yourself?
It's not weird if they're trying to get us to think that he can reroll his own roll.
Agreed. I'd go 50/50 at least that that's what's happening.
He's scum who can reroll himself, town who can reroll himself, or scum is rerolling him.
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I don't know what to make of it. I'm a bit hurt tht people are still voting for me even though I've helped contribute more than others.
*cough* CHAIRS *cough*
I simply do not believe that he could've rolled triple 1s.
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Okay, with that statement from ash, I think it's probably worth claiming something? I dunno....I think so.
Would we rather know what the person that targeted me did? Or who did it? I think the person that targeted me is likely town.
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unvote. I just moved into a new apartment today so until internet here is sorted expect phone and work posts only. Sorry!
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Also, Faust, you need to give a bit more information if you want me to not claim/discuss stuff about what I learned.
Anyone want to fess up to targeting Theorel last night?
I'm not really sure how much more to say. Maybe this: I know you learned something from your QT, and that this event was not caused by you. I don't want to say anything else because I don't want to disclose anything else about my role yet.
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Alright, agh, sorry.
Slowly my schedule is becoming more cluttered and jammed fulled of stuff.
I hardly find time to even get on the computer, which is ridiculous.
Chairs' roll is suspicious, so I, and I'm sure many others, want a full and complete explanation. Gimmie.
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I had a busy weekend but it looks like not much was missed.
chairs' triple 1 roll is highly improbable. That said, why in the hell would anyone claim rolling three 1's? Scum has every reason to lie and there are better lies, no? I might say that I rolled heavy numbers of dice on D1 and thought I could chance it D2 by just rolling one or two dice and well, I just struck out on chance. But triple 1's? Why would I claim that unless A) I had to in case of investigative powers or B) I am town and I don't lie regardless? In either case the triple 1 claim is plausible.
I think picking on a triple 1 claim may be more suspicious than making a triple 1 claim when I really think about it. Incredulity is reasonable. A wagon entirely based on the roll claim could be scum.
I am defintiely interested in hearing some explanation for theorel's reroll. At this point I think what they did is more useful than who did it. Who did it is simply fodder for scum manipulation and possible NK if they are Town. What they did should prove factual information that might explain what is going on and how Town may be able to leverage it moving forward. If what they are doing reeks of scum then who did it might be more pertinent.
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Sorry, been busy...looks like I've been rerolled again...which is weird for scum to do to me. Unfortunately, my result didn't get any better.
I need to read to see what's been happening.
Definitely weird for scum to do to you. Is it weird to do to yourself?
It's not weird if they're trying to get us to think that he can reroll his own roll.
Agreed. I'd go 50/50 at least that that's what's happening.
He's scum who can reroll himself, town who can reroll himself, or scum is rerolling him.
I do not think Theorel would have chosen to reroll the 6 D1 if he is town.
Then we are down to: He's scum who can reroll himself or scum is rerolling him.
I still think the latter, as his conversation with Jim leading to the post below seems genuine to me.
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And if chairs is town and rolled 3 dice, but got ye ol' triple snake eyes?
This is why I'm asking for a reroll!
Chairs, to make things clear. Are you really claiming to have rolled tripple 1?
Or is this a "I am not claiming anything yet, but you should not assume I rolled 1 die?" post.
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I rolled triple unos.
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I rolled triple unos.
Tsk.
Vote: chairs.
I thought we had established that it's bad to talk about how many dice you rolled?
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Also, Faust, you need to give a bit more information if you want me to not claim/discuss stuff about what I learned.
Anyone want to fess up to targeting Theorel last night?
I'm not really sure how much more to say. Maybe this: I know you learned something from your QT, and that this event was not caused by you. I don't want to say anything else because I don't want to disclose anything else about my role yet.
I am curious to hear what Ashersky have to tell, but I will not take a stance on whether this topic shold be brought up today, or left unsaid.
Ashersky should take note of what Faust says, and then make a decision. And if claiming the result is essentially claiming Faust's role, he should have a very good reason to reveal the information.
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Hey all. I'm back. As far as the recent semi-claiming that's going on, just thing very very hard on whether or not public claiming is in the best interests of town. I'll trust town makes the right call there.
I'll likely need to re-read this day to get me back into the game. What I know right off the bat is PPS is reading pretty town to me lately.
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I rolled triple unos.
Tsk.
Vote: chairs.
I thought we had established that it's bad to talk about how many dice you rolled?
I thought we wanted to clarify whether I'd been anti-town in rolling a single die or just really unlucky?
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I rolled triple unos.
Tsk.
Vote: chairs.
I thought we had established that it's bad to talk about how many dice you rolled?
I thought we wanted to clarify whether I'd been anti-town in rolling a single die or just really unlucky?
Well, we won't be able to clarify that, because why should we trust you? But if you're town, you've just given scum additional information...
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I'm confident that what I am talking about doesn't put any other town in danger.
I'm still waiting for confessions to targeting Theorel, though. (It's completely possible I get none, given it may or may not be in scum's interest to put themselves out there; and town targeters may not want to be outed either.)
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I'm confident that what I am talking about doesn't put any other town in danger.
I'm still waiting for confessions to targeting Theorel, though. (It's completely possible I get none, given it may or may not be in scum's interest to put themselves out there; and town targeters may not want to be outed either.)
Why would a town player make theorel reroll? It is much more likely that it's a scum player who has that power based on how it's been used. (theorel is possibly that scum player) Unless you mean something that happened N1... I should go reread to make sure I'm not misunderstanding things.
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I'm confident that what I am talking about doesn't put any other town in danger.
I'm still waiting for confessions to targeting Theorel, though. (It's completely possible I get none, given it may or may not be in scum's interest to put themselves out there; and town targeters may not want to be outed either.)
Why would a town player make theorel reroll? It is much more likely that it's a scum player who has that power based on how it's been used. (theorel is possibly that scum player) Unless you mean something that happened N1... I should go reread to make sure I'm not misunderstanding things.
Oh, I'm not talking about the reroll. I'm talking about during Night 1.
Sorry if that's unclear. There's been a lot of talk about Theorel. I am discussing my results from last night, not the reroll issue. I mentioned it when day started, Faust said I shouldn't talk about it, but I'm confident now that we're talking about different things.
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I'm confident that what I am talking about doesn't put any other town in danger.
I'm still waiting for confessions to targeting Theorel, though. (It's completely possible I get none, given it may or may not be in scum's interest to put themselves out there; and town targeters may not want to be outed either.)
Why would a town player make theorel reroll? It is much more likely that it's a scum player who has that power based on how it's been used. (theorel is possibly that scum player) Unless you mean something that happened N1... I should go reread to make sure I'm not misunderstanding things.
On the re-roll, I don't think town makes the reroll happen. I really think it has to be:
1) Scum has a re-roll power, and used it on D1 on Theorel to get a lowe roll, then used it on Theorel D2 to cast suspicion on Theorel.
2) Theorel has a re-roll power, used it on D1 to roll lower, then used it today to WIFOM the suspicion of who has the power.
#1 is more likely than #2, but Theo is smart enough a player to pull #2. But I think it's #1.
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What's happened here? No activity at all...
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Current votes:
Archetype (4): pingpongsam, WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, BoxOfDog
chairs (3): Archetype, Jorbles, faust
Everyone else is not voting. Do we feel like these two are the best wagons?
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Yes! Well, one of them is. And it starts with 'c' and ends with 'hairs'.
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Current votes:
Archetype (4): pingpongsam, WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, BoxOfDog
chairs (3): Archetype, Jorbles, faust
Everyone else is not voting. Do we feel like these two are the best wagons?
You are one of everyone else, and I'm interested in your opinion. Who would you vote for?
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Current votes:
Archetype (4): pingpongsam, WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, BoxOfDog
chairs (3): Archetype, Jorbles, faust
Everyone else is not voting. Do we feel like these two are the best wagons?
You are one of everyone else, and I'm interested in your opinion. Who would you vote for?
Honestly, neither is compelling to me. I had a town read on Arch, mostly because I think loose and crazy arch is town!arch. The wagon on chairs is based on bad rolls, which most seem to agree isn't a good reason in and of itself to lynch.
If it was deadline, I'd hammer either to ensure we lynched. We need six to lynch? Seven?
Arch, how would you feel about L-1?
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Nevermind, seven to lynch.
I need to see more on chairs (other than the low roll).
I feel like Box just hopped on Arch without much reasoning. I had a scum read on him earlier. Any appetite for a Boxed Lunch?
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I'm always up for a Boxed lynch, but I'd rather myself or someone else vig him.
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Chairs Summary:
Tells flavor name because it won't give away his role. Doesn't want to do popcorn dice rolling because of Jimmmmm not always being present and rolls then. Says everyone should roll at least 3 dice. Says there is really no upside to flavor claiming, but no upside barring Flavor Cops that can investigate alignment. Says his supply is small. Plays a 5, apologizes for not snagging a 6. Gives slight townreads on theorel, EFHW, Volt, ashersky, faust, and PPS and slight scum on Eevee and BoxOFDog. Votes Voltaire for finding Jorbles scummy for bad reasons and says that one of Jorbles and Voltaire will gain towncred if the other is scum. Realizes that it was Eevee he had a problem with and mistook it as Voltaire saying it and unvotes. Gives towncred to EFHW for catching him saying that. Says we should punish low rolls because if Mafia helps Town, it should only hurt them. Votes Jorbles to L-2. Once Jorbles claims, he unvotes and says he's off his lynch list. Says Walrus' mega post is weird and votes him.
Says
So then your position is that scum did not, in fact, throw a purposeful low roll in, and that Eevee (as scum) is suggesting we lynch low rollers on principle to get an easily justified mislynch on D1?
Interesting. It's not something I'd expect out of Eevee, but maybe if Eevee got the idea during N0 from another member of the scum team it would be possible. Of course, I'm actually not sure I've ever played with scum!Eevee, so I might be showing untoward positive bias here.
Says Jorbles' claiming of ashersky's stored die was a mistake. Says Volt looks Towny for talking about Eevee, and (re)votes Walrus. Understands Box's situation of not being on a lot, but says it still doesn't help Town. Says Volt was scumhunting and after a prodding by Voltaire gives a list of quotes were Voltaire has forwarded the conversation through theorizing how to beat the monsters. rerevotes Walrus and gives town points to Voltaire, says faust makes good points, and he can't read EFHW. Empathizes with Walrus and unvotes. Says that EFHW and I are both 'blending in' and will go review myself before making a decision. Says in EFHW VS Voltaire he'd rather lynch EFHW.
He says:
pps: if you think that Voltaire and EFHW are both town, then where do you suggest we look next? Archetype? Or do you think Walrus's emotional moment was a ploy to play on the heartstrings of both Box and myself (since we're both somewhat emotional players and could understand his frustration) in an attempt to remove himself from the potential for D1 lynching?
Acknowledges my wagon and then votes. Says he wants to drive my wagon into the ground, but says that he thinks that the wagon on me will grind to a halt and wants to see who's throwing a vote on me for wagon analysis.
My Commentary:
The main problems I have are:
1. Very back and forth on EFHW. Like, willing to go either way.
2. Does a complete 180 on Jorbles after his claim.
3. Tries to throw suspsicion on Eevee, but makes sure to keep his distance.
4. His vote on me and the reasoning for it is ultra scummy
Very happy where my vote is. Didn't realize how scummy chairs was because of how low he flew under the radar.
This is why I'm voting chairs. The Triple 1s only make him more likely to be scum.
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I've been really wiped out since this weekend. Every time I check the thread there's either no new posts or very little action at all.
It's hard to work with nothing.
Lot of lurking but hard to complain when I am one of everybody, too.
Hopefully I'll be in better shape tomorrow, off to bed. I've noticed I am the first poster each day at ~6:30am EST.
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Arch, thanks for reposting your case.
I'm disallowing the Jorbles bit and the voting you bit.
The EFHW point is good. The Eevee point is good.
Reposting your case also points out to me that you made a case. That's not like you at all, from what I recall of our games together.
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I'm always up for a Boxed lynch, but I'd rather myself or someone else vig him.
Why exactly?
Chairs Summary:
Tells flavor name because it won't give away his role. Doesn't want to do popcorn dice rolling because of Jimmmmm not always being present and rolls then. Says everyone should roll at least 3 dice. Says there is really no upside to flavor claiming, but no upside barring Flavor Cops that can investigate alignment. Says his supply is small. Plays a 5, apologizes for not snagging a 6. Gives slight townreads on theorel, EFHW, Volt, ashersky, faust, and PPS and slight scum on Eevee and BoxOFDog. Votes Voltaire for finding Jorbles scummy for bad reasons and says that one of Jorbles and Voltaire will gain towncred if the other is scum. Realizes that it was Eevee he had a problem with and mistook it as Voltaire saying it and unvotes. Gives towncred to EFHW for catching him saying that. Says we should punish low rolls because if Mafia helps Town, it should only hurt them. Votes Jorbles to L-2. Once Jorbles claims, he unvotes and says he's off his lynch list. Says Walrus' mega post is weird and votes him.
Says
So then your position is that scum did not, in fact, throw a purposeful low roll in, and that Eevee (as scum) is suggesting we lynch low rollers on principle to get an easily justified mislynch on D1?
Interesting. It's not something I'd expect out of Eevee, but maybe if Eevee got the idea during N0 from another member of the scum team it would be possible. Of course, I'm actually not sure I've ever played with scum!Eevee, so I might be showing untoward positive bias here.
Says Jorbles' claiming of ashersky's stored die was a mistake. Says Volt looks Towny for talking about Eevee, and (re)votes Walrus. Understands Box's situation of not being on a lot, but says it still doesn't help Town. Says Volt was scumhunting and after a prodding by Voltaire gives a list of quotes were Voltaire has forwarded the conversation through theorizing how to beat the monsters. rerevotes Walrus and gives town points to Voltaire, says faust makes good points, and he can't read EFHW. Empathizes with Walrus and unvotes. Says that EFHW and I are both 'blending in' and will go review myself before making a decision. Says in EFHW VS Voltaire he'd rather lynch EFHW.
He says:
pps: if you think that Voltaire and EFHW are both town, then where do you suggest we look next? Archetype? Or do you think Walrus's emotional moment was a ploy to play on the heartstrings of both Box and myself (since we're both somewhat emotional players and could understand his frustration) in an attempt to remove himself from the potential for D1 lynching?
Acknowledges my wagon and then votes. Says he wants to drive my wagon into the ground, but says that he thinks that the wagon on me will grind to a halt and wants to see who's throwing a vote on me for wagon analysis.
My Commentary:
The main problems I have are:
1. Very back and forth on EFHW. Like, willing to go either way.
2. Does a complete 180 on Jorbles after his claim.
3. Tries to throw suspsicion on Eevee, but makes sure to keep his distance.
4. His vote on me and the reasoning for it is ultra scummy
Very happy where my vote is. Didn't realize how scummy chairs was because of how low he flew under the radar.
This is why I'm voting chairs. The Triple 1s only make him more likely to be scum.
I thought that style of single-minded, analytical megapost was out of character for you Archetype. Maybe like you're looking a little too hard?
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I thought that style of single-minded, analytical megapost was out of character for you Archetype. Maybe like you're looking a little too hard?
The new guy gets it.
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BoxOfDog is anti Town. That's why.
Re: Me making a case, I've learned that to get a lynch through you have to present a case or whatever. I personally find it trivial mostly because I think chairs is scum and posting a case doesn't really do anything but post the facts I already knew. Rereading helps, of course, put I've seen that posting your findings is the only way to get people to follow you. I don't I've ever tried to get someone hardcore lynched since like MA II where I was 100% certain Axxle was scum. But that was a bit different anyways.
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BoxOfDog is anti Town. That's why.
Re: Me making a case, I've learned that to get a lynch through you have to present a case or whatever. I personally find it trivial mostly because I think chairs is scum and posting a case doesn't really do anything but post the facts I already knew. Rereading helps, of course, put I've seen that posting your findings is the only way to get people to follow you. I don't I've ever tried to get someone hardcore lynched since like MA II where I was 100% certain Axxle was scum. But that was a bit different anyways.
Ah, MA II. Those were good times.
Just because you think someone is scum doesn't mean folks will just believe you. Hence the need for a case. If you are turning over a new leaf, that's great.
But it does seem out of the ordinary. Meta-changing always does.
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BoxOfDog is anti Town. That's why.
Re: Me making a case, I've learned that to get a lynch through you have to present a case or whatever. I personally find it trivial mostly because I think chairs is scum and posting a case doesn't really do anything but post the facts I already knew. Rereading helps, of course, put I've seen that posting your findings is the only way to get people to follow you. I don't I've ever tried to get someone hardcore lynched since like MA II where I was 100% certain Axxle was scum. But that was a bit different anyways.
Ah, MA II. Those were good times.
Just because you think someone is scum doesn't mean folks will just believe you. Hence the need for a case. If you are turning over a new leaf, that's great.
But it does seem out of the ordinary. Meta-changing always does.
Not exactly a meta change. Like I explained to BoD earlier, I had time to do a reread and the game was small. So I did and posted the results. It's likely not something I'll always do, but I did it here to prove a point and because I had the time.
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Nevermind, seven to lynch.
I need to see more on chairs (other than the low roll).
I feel like Box just hopped on Arch without much reasoning. I had a scum read on him earlier. Any appetite for a Boxed Lunch?
Not really.
I stated that my reasoning was based around what I stated in D1.
Am I wrong that the same reasons can melt over into other days?
If not, it'd be like playing an entirely new game.
I know recycling the same accusations seems odd, suspicious, out of the ordinary, etc., but his behavior here seems just as strange as it did at that time :I
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Nevermind, seven to lynch.
I need to see more on chairs (other than the low roll).
I feel like Box just hopped on Arch without much reasoning. I had a scum read on him earlier. Any appetite for a Boxed Lunch?
Not really.
I stated that my reasoning was based around what I stated in D1.
Am I wrong that the same reasons can melt over into other days?
If not, it'd be like playing an entirely new game.
I know recycling the same accusations seems odd, suspicious, out of the ordinary, etc., but his behavior here seems just as strange as it did at that time :I
No, it's okay to carry over suspicion day to day. I just didn't recall your suspicion. If you want to quote it or mention it again, that'd be helpful.
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You know what.
This whole fricken' time, I've found Voltaire and EFHW less scummy than most other players.
I don't even care about those two votes anymore, because all the votes on them seem so flawed.
vote: Archetype
Both players have actually made sincere, understandable, and more reasonable defenses, and people completely look over them, saying,
"I can imagine scum saying that."
I can too! But I don't think where those things are said are in the right place, or at the right time, for them to be scum.
I've been wagon jumping this whole time.
What I think is manufactured is Archetype's defense. It has so many holes in it, and I can't believe I haven't already voted for him.
All aboard the Archetype wagon!
How has he been different from his normal town self?
Has his normal town self been pointing out the flaws in other people within the game, and then making no effort to defend himself?
Then someone else defends him, and that defense has numerous holes in it, and he completely okays it?
Does Archetype as town randomly vote for someone, unexplained, and then change his vote because 'they probably won't get lynched'?
Archetype's normal town is lurking this entire time, and hypocritically accusing another player of lurking, when he was doing more of it?
His normal town is purposefully trying to blend in, and ending up suspicious?
His normal town scratches the bottom of the barrel for town-cred?
Things were getting a bit hot, and I made my reasons in the heat of the moment xD
I still stand by them, but I'm just noting that I didn't intend for the posts to come off as angry, flamey, or otherwise offensive.
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Things were getting a bit hot
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=5896.new#new
Don't worry, I don't feel offended or attacked in the least bit! I just know you're wrong. :)
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Nevermind, seven to lynch.
I need to see more on chairs (other than the low roll).
I feel like Box just hopped on Arch without much reasoning. I had a scum read on him earlier. Any appetite for a Boxed Lunch?
These are my reasons to vote chairs:
chairs - a 1, seriously? And then he claimed having rolled 3 dice, which is just so unlikely. Also was a late addition to the EFHW wagon, and pushing Voltaire before that. Leaning scum.
In this post, you can also see why I have a town read on Archetype.
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What worries me about the Archetype wagon is that we're talking about lynching someone who has made the best contributions to monster fighting of all of us. Regardless of whether he's town or scum, his actions were pro-town, and if he's scum, he "wasted" his high rolls for towncred. So if he's scum, he doesn't have good dice stored, and out of all possible scum lynches, he would be the worst one. And I don't even think he's scum.
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I think that Archetype's dice plays are very Town-credible. I wouldn't get irrationally exuberant over them, though. First and foremost, the dice rolls are a very overt way to convince people you are Town if you are scum lucky enough to be rolling consistently high numbers. In this same line of thinking it would be best to appear to be fighting the monsters D1/D2 so a D3 piss-poor roll is easily excused as bad luck after the cred has already been bought and paid for.
Do we want to use dice rolls as our primary metric for scum-hunting? I don't think we do. I think dice rolls are legitimate reinforcement to arguments for or against a lynch but there has to be a primary argument to reinforce, in my opinion. In fact, I consider votes centered around the roll-value to be scummy.
I think there is likely a better lynch out there than Archetype but without any activity to work with all we really have is D1 information and weak-ass roll-analysis. I am certainly open to suggestions for other lynches that come with reasonable arguments not based on roll-values.
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How likely is it scum would openly say they rolled three dice and all came up 1s after playing a 1?
I think the only way scum plays a 1 is if they knew it would guarantee a loss against a monster or they only rolled low dice. That seems to be a safe assumption.
The better scum lie would be to say you rolled a few die and you stored a higher number. Like, isn't a honest thing like "I got a 1 and a 3 after rolling 2 dice and I stored the 3 because I want to buy the 1-Shot Cop" a safer and smarter thing to say than "man, I rolled three 1s dude" as scum?
It seems like it's almost too dumb a thing to say as scum (no offense if you are scum, chairs).
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Yeah, I dunno. I'd like to do some scumhunting but I've got nothing.
I realized that my town-read on the person that targeted me is pretty meaningless, because it makes sense from a scum stand-point as well.
I'm a little under-the-weather, and tired of trying to analyze stuff. I dunno, chairs' play makes no sense from a mafia perspective. But maybe he realizes that, and is doing it intentionally, to break up a scum-narrative? I don't really think so, but I also don't think chairs is significantly townie, except for that broken narrative.
Things like: requesting someone help him re-roll his dice when it is essentially known that it's a scum power. I mean it sounds like inattentive town. Scum surely has more information about it and would be keenly aware that it's not a town power, and should know that town knows it's scum-controlled. But maybe he was trying to hide his knowledge of the re-roll power being scum's and as a result forgot that a town-chairs would know that scum had it? It starts getting so convoluted, that it ceases being a "reasonable" explanation.
I just want to lynch someone and move on. How about a vote: chairs...
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Vote Count 2.4
Archetype (4): pingpongsam, WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, BoxOfDog
chairs (4): Archetype, Jorbles, faust, theorel
not voting (4): Voltaire, xeiron, ashersky, chairs
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Summoner will be defeated.
Target: 12d6
Total: 49
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Well I'm not happy with the idea of being lynched, so vote: archetype
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So, my vote on chairs was mostly a policy vote. I think he's scummy, but not my top scum read. I don't particularly like the wagon on him. I'm going back to voting for my top scumread.
Vote: Walrus
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I spent most of my time and effort on the other game I'm in yesterday. I am very paranoid chairs might be trying a too-clever-by-half bumbling town ploy. However, faust makes a decent point that (assuming he's not lying), if he's scum he can't be more than a goon.
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I spent most of my time and effort on the other game I'm in yesterday. I am very paranoid chairs might be trying a too-clever-by-half bumbling town ploy. However, faust makes a decent point that (assuming he's not lying), if he's scum he can't be more than a goon.
How do you get that he can't be more than a goon? And for that matter scum can buy new roles, same as town, I think they can all become Godfathers, bulletproof, strongmen.
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I spent most of my time and effort on the other game I'm in yesterday. I am very paranoid chairs might be trying a too-clever-by-half bumbling town ploy. However, faust makes a decent point that (assuming he's not lying), if he's scum he can't be more than a goon.
How do you get that he can't be more than a goon? And for that matter scum can buy new roles, same as town, I think they can all become Godfathers, bulletproof, strongmen.
The fact that if he truly rolled three 1's, barring roles, he clearly can't buy anything.
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I don't feel like I'm bumbling, unless you think it was a huge misplay to admit to my terrible roll. I think rolling one die would've been more anti-town against this particular monster, and I'm just frustrated that it was such a bad roll. I'm also mostly limited to phone posting as I don't have 'net at my home currently so my apologies for low post count.
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I spent most of my time and effort on the other game I'm in yesterday. I am very paranoid chairs might be trying a too-clever-by-half bumbling town ploy. However, faust makes a decent point that (assuming he's not lying), if he's scum he can't be more than a goon.
How do you get that he can't be more than a goon? And for that matter scum can buy new roles, same as town, I think they can all become Godfathers, bulletproof, strongmen.
The fact that if he truly rolled three 1's, barring roles, he clearly can't buy anything.
He could be scum who saved a high number though. Playing a 1 makes me think there's a good chance he saved a high number to buy a role, and played a low one to sabotage town, it's a high risk, high reward play for scum, and one of the things they can do to hurt town the most. It's a choice someone might have if they rolled highly variable numbers. (combos of 6 and 1s) This is especially likely if it's something that would let scum buy a role immediately instead of waiting another night.
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I think your logic is sound, Jorbles. I would like to hear similarly sound reasoning for the triple 1 claim.
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I think your logic is sound, Jorbles. I would like to hear similarly sound reasoning for the triple 1 claim.
I think this is where I keep stumbling on the scum narrative for chairs. Why use that lie of all lies? It's terrible as cover, it's terrible as a "reasonable explanation," it's just terrible.
Town chairs with terrible roll luck feels like the Occam's Razor answer here.
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Archetype is at 5 votes. That's L-2, right? Is anyone else willing to vote for him, or is this a stalled wagon?
I think that stalled wagons are often scum. I would point back to my very first scum game way back in like M15 or so, where I learned that lesson the hard way. So I would lean toward being willing to vote based on how he's stalled out being a sign that his partners aren't wanting to bus.
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My chief concern with voting Archetype is his rolls. Also I find the case on him middling, at best.
chairs I could go for, though.
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My chief concern with voting Archetype is his rolls. Also I find the case on him middling, at best.
chairs I could go for, though.
I mean, I don't have a scum read on the guy. I do think he's played differently than his expected meta, but he's explained why, and man, if anyone can relate to needing to get people past their meta, it's me.
His rolls gain him little cred with me. I agree with PPS that scum would play high rolls for that cred, so it's negated.
The stalled wagon argument works for chairs, too. He's just two votes behind Archetype currently, which is why I asked specifically about him. He's more likely to be lynched at this point.
Is there anyone else worth looking at? I feel like scum must be loving this if they are in the background.
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I believe I'll share the information I have before the day ends, maybe in twilight. It looks like no one wants to own up to targeting Theorel. That makes me more comfortable that the results indicate something about scum.
Note, I took into account faust's cryptic stuff, and I am confident we're talking about different stuff.
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We haven't looked too hard at the EFHW wagon yet, so I decided to give it a glance:
Votes on EFHW in order:
theorel
Voltaire
theorel
Walrus
Archetype
theorel
xeiron
Archetype
chairs
Walrus
Archetype (L-1, and last vote)
Final votes: Voltaire, theorel, xeiron, chairs, WalrusMcFishSr, Archetype
What I found noteworthy is that theorel and Voltaire at the beginning of it laid out some reasons for voting for EFHW when they voted. This doesn't mean they're town, but at least they had reasons to vote. The other players did not talk about why they found EFHW scummy when they voted. I'm sure some of them did at some point, but this wagon looks really sheepy to me. I was just looking at the actual votes (easier to find with "Vote: efhw") not all the discussion. So I'm allowing that it could have happened in other posts quite easily.
Could xeiron, Archetype, chairs, and Walrus please quote their reasons for voting EFHW from D1 if they gave any?
If you (referring to the above) didn't state any D1, that's possibly justifiable, but why didn't you post them?
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We haven't looked too hard at the EFHW wagon yet, so I decided to give it a glance:
Votes on EFHW in order:
theorel
Voltaire
theorel
Walrus
Archetype
theorel
xeiron
Archetype
chairs
Walrus
Archetype (L-1, and last vote)
Final votes: Voltaire, theorel, xeiron, chairs, WalrusMcFishSr, Archetype
What I found noteworthy is that theorel and Voltaire at the beginning of it laid out some reasons for voting for EFHW when they voted. This doesn't mean they're town, but at least they had reasons to vote. The other players did not talk about why they found EFHW scummy when they voted. I'm sure some of them did at some point, but this wagon looks really sheepy to me. I was just looking at the actual votes (easier to find with "Vote: efhw") not all the discussion. So I'm allowing that it could have happened in other posts quite easily.
Could xeiron, Archetype, chairs, and Walrus please quote their reasons for voting EFHW from D1 if they gave any?
If you (referring to the above) didn't state any D1, that's possibly justifiable, but why didn't you post them?
Of course, both current wagons (arch and chairs) are looking sheeping on this analysis.
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I'm going to try to get my computer set up so I can try to tether my phone and find that for you. I have to admit that for the past week or so on f.ds I've been pretty busy so I strongly suspect it was mostly something along the lines of ; that argument seems reasonable".
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Man, so slow.
Do we need a night or something. Feels like we're spinning our wheels.
Here's intent to hammer anyone (within reason) who gets to L-1.
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My chief concern with voting Archetype is his rolls. Also I find the case on him middling, at best.
chairs I could go for, though.
I mean, I don't have a scum read on the guy. I do think he's played differently than his expected meta, but he's explained why, and man, if anyone can relate to needing to get people past their meta, it's me.
His rolls gain him little cred with me. I agree with PPS that scum would play high rolls for that cred, so it's negated.
The stalled wagon argument works for chairs, too. He's just two votes behind Archetype currently, which is why I asked specifically about him. He's more likely to be lynched at this point.
Is there anyone else worth looking at? I feel like scum must be loving this if they are in the background.
HAHAHAHA!
(http://shinashiz.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/cute.gif)
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Man, I will go back to voting chairs just to prevent an Archetype lynch. But really, don't we want to lynch someone who is actually scummy? Noone has responded to my Walrus suspicion. Anything? pingpongsam? ashersky? Jorbles?
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So, my vote on chairs was mostly a policy vote. I think he's scummy, but not my top scum read. I don't particularly like the wagon on him. I'm going back to voting for my top scumread.
Vote: Walrus
Can you expand on this? I recall some scumminess talk on D1. Not sure why though. He's definitely jokey. My only experience with him is modding him when he was town. He was jokey then.
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Yeah I haven't seen anything compelling related to voting walrus. Convince me?
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So. Big Walrus case coming in.
First, his rolls don't speak for him? 3 and 4? These are the kind of low-ish plays I would absolutely expect from mafia - not too low to be unlikely for town, not too high to actually help us. And he's kind of lurky, although he acted that way in his other game as well, so I don't hold it against him. But it's not beneficial for town either. Now I'll go into some post analysis.
Here's the post he made after theorel voted for him:
I knew as soon as I got the low roll that I would come under scrutiny today.
If I may speak a bit to my defense. Here's a rough stream-of-consciousness rendition of my general thought process this game.
"Oh boy! My second game of Mafia! But this time with even more madness! This will be ever so much fun! I can't wait to jump right in and join the action!"
"Uh, wait a second, there's lots of rules and bylaws that I don't quite understand yet. It looks like people are talking about strategy. That sounds good to me; I don't really know what I'm doing and I'd rather not act unwisely to the benefit of scum."
"Oh now wait, it looks like we're saying we shouldn't talk about strategy, because then the scum will know what they're expected to roll, etc."
"Aw jeez people are rolling already! You know what? Probably the best thing I can do right now is just put my best foot forward and roll as high as I can. The basic strategy seems simple enough, and I don't want to be lingering towards the end--that seems like something scum might do to collect information and sabotage the effort. So let's do it!"
"Aw jeez. My roll sucks. I guess I'll make the most of it."
"And now people are discussing strategy at length again! Make up your mind will ya. At least I feel comfortable talking about the math, even if I'm still pretty noobish at the core gameplay of Mafia."
So that's pretty much how I've been feeling this game.
It is plausible that the scum team might want to put forward a "sacrificial lamb" for low rolling, as others have suggested. But I don't think that role would be delegated to me even if I were scum. I don't have the experience to pull it off convincingly.
And of course I recognize the semi-irony of voting for a low-roller myself. Well, I don't think Jorbles' or Voltaire's reaction has been as genuine as mine, which I've tried to detail here. And to be honest, I don't really have any better ideas right now. One might think that if I were trying to draw attention from myself I'd be diverting from the low roll issue.
I have already stated that this contains an awful lot of "scum would do this and that, and I'm not doing it". Why does town think so much about what seems scummy? I haven't seen Walrus doing that in his other game, where he was town.
Continuing:
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
Good question, what if scum have a power to adjust the total that they're just saving for close to deadline?
Scum already used a role to mess with the total. I don't think it's all that likely that they have two such roles.
This sounds like covering for scum.
I agree. I don't like that statement at all.
Vote: faust
This is role madness. Who knows what kind of wacky variables are out there, probably a lot, as if the core premise weren't wacky enough. And we've only seen a few of them...can somebody with more experience comment on how much wackiness is par for the course for one of these games?
Anyway, I'm glad the troll stands to be defeated, but it's a razor thin margin and therefore probably even easier for scum to mess with. I think it's quite likely they're saving some plot until the 11th hour, and we shouldn't get complacent.
Here he's sheeping ashersky to build a case on me. OMGUS a bit, but I don't feel like my statement was enough to warrant a vote there.
Then the big Appeal to Emotion:
Alright. Getting down to the soft deadline. It seems like the consensus is closing in on me, Voltaire, and EFHW. So let's focus on those for now.
Walrus--seems like a clever, honest lad. Handsome too. Would not lynch.
EFHW--just did a quick reread. Late to the party, late to roll, seems to blend in pretty well. My reread made her feel scummier than my initial impression, and maybe that was her design; stay unmemorable, just out of the "lurk zone" without getting in the spotlight too much. Of course she's in the spotlight now so maybe that didn't pan out so well. But to be honest I didn't completely pick up on a super scummy vibe. I would be OK with a lynch here, but I think that I would rather...
vote: Voltaire again. 1/3 of this is admittedly just to save my ass, as apparently I'm one of the more viable lynches along with him. 1/3 is for the low roll (again, applies equally well to me), which I don't think should just be ignored. The other 1/3 is for his seemingly strange behavior: not participating so much until that fact was called out, and then suddenly becoming more "towny" after the fact. From my limited experience this doesn't seem like ordinary town!Voltaire. I'm not 100% on this lynch either, but it's probably the best I've got D1, especially if we're narrowing down to a few viable options.
Now for some "real talk". This is my second game of Mafia, and honestly it might be my last, at least for a while. I'm trying really hard to enjoy this game. I really am. But it seems like to me personally, the reward:effort ratio is not as high as I would have hoped, with perhaps too much emotional angst for my taste as well. It feels more like an obligation than recreation to me right now. And what effort I do put in seems to be rather pointless. My last several "substantial" posts were basically ignored. I feel like a pawn to be judged by the power players--"Oh Walrus made a post, great, he's not lurking too much, that'll do pig"--without really participating in a meaningful way. A lot of this game seems to be about familiarity with the other players, and that's something I just don't possess to the degree that many of you do--hence my focus on "meta" questions and statistics where I actually feel like I could contribute. To be honest I wouldn't be crushed if I were the lynch today, simply because it would free me up. But at the same time I don't want to let down the town by just giving up. So just feel like I'm sort of drifting along here, and I don't know if I have the dedication to put in to become a power player myself.
Should I sub out? Maybe. But I find that to be confusing and weird, so I think I'll stick it through, and maybe my opinion will turn around. Maybe I'm just having a moment of weakness; maybe everybody gets these. I certainly don't want to be a buzzkill here. I'm not trying to drum up some emotional sympathy or anything either; I don't need or want any special treatment. But I did want to express myself so maybe you can understand my mindset a little better.
Note that in the beginning he states that he doesn't find EFHW particularly scummy. Still he goes for that lynch at the end of the Day, without ever stating that his opinion on her has changed. The whole AtE thing reads scummy to me as well, and it worked out. I mean, I'm a new-ish player myself, so I can relate, but stating this when under pressure is just a scum thing to do.
Thanks for the kind words chairs. Yeah, I figured everyone must get burned out with this sometimes. I know not to take anything personally in this game, I can handle that. It's the sense of futility that was getting to me.
Alright Voltaire, you've convinced me for now. vote: EFHW instead.
I didn't consider Archetype in my most recent post because it seemed to me at first glance that the case built up around him was pretty flimsy. I'll do a reread on him later though.
He says Voltaire "convinced" him without elaborating how, and votes his null read EFHW.
Are we really seriously this close to stalling out? I expected to wake up and see a bow neatly tied around things.
I could see the reasons behind a BoxOfDog lynch. He certainly has been acti-lurking in my perception, and whether he's town or not his contributions have been sparser and less substantial than average. There's also a couple of things he's said that have given off a scummy vibe.
The main reason I've been skeptical so far is because I went after a megalurker D1 before, and it didn't end up working out. And a lot of BoxOfDog's behavior does read to me as genuine, if a little excitable. Like that most recent comment about "gee I'll be so embarressed if ____ flips town." It's definitely a sentiment that's shared by town. It's probably something most of us wouldn't say outright, because it reads like a classic scumtell. But it seems consistent with Box's personality, and I agree that it seems like too easy of a lynch for scum to pile onto.
But it now seems to be the wagon with the momentum, and there's very little time left, so I'll try vote: BoxOfDog. If you think it's scummy that I'm moving my vote so late, and to a person I just defended, well, I think you're scummy for not being more flexible as we approach the deadline. "No lynch" is a fairly elementary town blunder, if I understand my basic Mafia theory correctly, but I still prefer EFHW or Voltaire.
I'll be awake until deadline but still on my phone.
Hops the Box wagon when it becomes viable, immediately stating why this is not scummy. This also brings us in the region of a no-lynch, which he later says he didn't know about. Well that could be true, or he just tried to play out his noobishness to force a no-lynch.
Overall, Walrus seems scummy throughout all of this. And on top of it, if he flips scum, think think we can get some information on Box and Voltaire out of it.
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I built pretty much the exact same case on walrus D1.
His D2 play has seemed markedly more Town. I'm okay with a walrus lynch for D2, however.
Vote: Walrus
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Eevee is remarkably absent. He was scarce D1 as well. Today he has voted once, played his die and made just enough innocuous comments to avoid prodding. Zero contributions, imho. I actually favor an Eevee policy lynch for the moment.
Vote: Eevee
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Eevee is remarkably absent. He was scarce D1 as well. Today he has voted once, played his die and made just enough innocuous comments to avoid prodding. Zero contributions, imho. I actually favor an Eevee policy lynch for the moment.
Vote: Eevee
I could get behind this. I need to re-read Eevee D1.
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I'm still in the elite gang of phone posters. I would rather lynch eevee than walrus based on the arguments I just read.
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vote: eevee
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What have Eevee's rolls been?
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Hello all! Time for work soon, but let's post something first, shall we:
The chairs roll is weird. I can see the arguments for a Mafia gambit, especially after we seem to have taken a more lax stance towards dice rolls in general. However it just seems so weird of a claim and so bad of a lie that I would assume very unlucky town for now.
The "stalled wagon" argument is compelling, and that's part of the reason why I've kept my vote on Archetype. I guess that argument could be made of lots of other people right now though and maybe we just aren't reaching a consensus as town.
ash--yes this is slower than I expected, and I know everybody is trying to work with what's available. Maybe we do need a night, that's why I voted for N2 fairy! Of course based on the poll results that may have actually worked out, so maybe we'll get another kill-free night and another day of painfully slow discussion.
Jorbles, I'd be glad to post my reasoning, but it looks like somebody "cased" me already! Thanks faust!
So. Big Walrus case coming in.
First, his rolls don't speak for him? 3 and 4? These are the kind of low-ish plays I would absolutely expect from mafia - not too low to be unlikely for town, not too high to actually help us. And he's kind of lurky, although he acted that way in his other game as well, so I don't hold it against him. But it's not beneficial for town either. Now I'll go into some post analysis.
I haven't been thrilled by my rolls either. I think it's funny that everybody's like, "Oh man rolls are our best form of evidence right now! But wait actually they can't really be taken into account! But wait actually they can substantiate my argument! But wait actually they can't! What if it's a scum double-bluff? Oh shit I rolled a low roll now, I guess that means rolls are non-indicative after all! But wait maybe it applies to everyone except me!" That's not targeted at anyone in particular, but that's the sort of general sentiment I've been perceiving. Not to say I haven't been guilty of it myself, but especially after having some middlin' roll luck I feel more sympathetic towards others that do as well.
And I think my posting activity has been pretty much par for what you'd expect from me. Not too high a post count, but many of my posts are longer ones like this. Some people have called this "lurky" or "scummy", but it's really just a function of when I have time and access to a computer. It's more convenient for me to be able to hammer out a solid post like this during a lunch break or something, than to argue one-liners all day.
Here's the post he made after theorel voted for him:
I knew as soon as I got the low roll that I would come under scrutiny today.
If I may speak a bit to my defense. Here's a rough stream-of-consciousness rendition of my general thought process this game.
"Oh boy! My second game of Mafia! But this time with even more madness! This will be ever so much fun! I can't wait to jump right in and join the action!"
"Uh, wait a second, there's lots of rules and bylaws that I don't quite understand yet. It looks like people are talking about strategy. That sounds good to me; I don't really know what I'm doing and I'd rather not act unwisely to the benefit of scum."
"Oh now wait, it looks like we're saying we shouldn't talk about strategy, because then the scum will know what they're expected to roll, etc."
"Aw jeez people are rolling already! You know what? Probably the best thing I can do right now is just put my best foot forward and roll as high as I can. The basic strategy seems simple enough, and I don't want to be lingering towards the end--that seems like something scum might do to collect information and sabotage the effort. So let's do it!"
"Aw jeez. My roll sucks. I guess I'll make the most of it."
"And now people are discussing strategy at length again! Make up your mind will ya. At least I feel comfortable talking about the math, even if I'm still pretty noobish at the core gameplay of Mafia."
So that's pretty much how I've been feeling this game.
It is plausible that the scum team might want to put forward a "sacrificial lamb" for low rolling, as others have suggested. But I don't think that role would be delegated to me even if I were scum. I don't have the experience to pull it off convincingly.
And of course I recognize the semi-irony of voting for a low-roller myself. Well, I don't think Jorbles' or Voltaire's reaction has been as genuine as mine, which I've tried to detail here. And to be honest, I don't really have any better ideas right now. One might think that if I were trying to draw attention from myself I'd be diverting from the low roll issue.
I have already stated that this contains an awful lot of "scum would do this and that, and I'm not doing it". Why does town think so much about what seems scummy? I haven't seen Walrus doing that in his other game, where he was town.
Haha people really didn't like this post for some reason! I thought it was sort of a fun way to explain my reasoning from a fresh and semi-humorous perspective. Didn't seem out of character to me, but then it would be weird if something seemed out of character to yourself.
Continuing:
Day ends at 12pm October 12 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Troll will be defeated.
Target: 312
Total: 312
Question: is there a reason to "hurry" the lynch through to ensure that scum can't change the current total ahead of time?
Good question, what if scum have a power to adjust the total that they're just saving for close to deadline?
Scum already used a role to mess with the total. I don't think it's all that likely that they have two such roles.
This sounds like covering for scum.
I agree. I don't like that statement at all.
Vote: faust
This is role madness. Who knows what kind of wacky variables are out there, probably a lot, as if the core premise weren't wacky enough. And we've only seen a few of them...can somebody with more experience comment on how much wackiness is par for the course for one of these games?
Anyway, I'm glad the troll stands to be defeated, but it's a razor thin margin and therefore probably even easier for scum to mess with. I think it's quite likely they're saving some plot until the 11th hour, and we shouldn't get complacent.
Here he's sheeping ashersky to build a case on me. OMGUS a bit, but I don't feel like my statement was enough to warrant a vote there.
You're right, that was a pretty dumb reason to vote, which is why it didn't stay there long. Half gut reaction, half policy really. I wouldn't call it "sheeping" but you can interpret it as you will.
Then the big Appeal to Emotion:
Alright. Getting down to the soft deadline. It seems like the consensus is closing in on me, Voltaire, and EFHW. So let's focus on those for now.
Walrus--seems like a clever, honest lad. Handsome too. Would not lynch.
EFHW--just did a quick reread. Late to the party, late to roll, seems to blend in pretty well. My reread made her feel scummier than my initial impression, and maybe that was her design; stay unmemorable, just out of the "lurk zone" without getting in the spotlight too much. Of course she's in the spotlight now so maybe that didn't pan out so well. But to be honest I didn't completely pick up on a super scummy vibe. I would be OK with a lynch here, but I think that I would rather...
vote: Voltaire again. 1/3 of this is admittedly just to save my ass, as apparently I'm one of the more viable lynches along with him. 1/3 is for the low roll (again, applies equally well to me), which I don't think should just be ignored. The other 1/3 is for his seemingly strange behavior: not participating so much until that fact was called out, and then suddenly becoming more "towny" after the fact. From my limited experience this doesn't seem like ordinary town!Voltaire. I'm not 100% on this lynch either, but it's probably the best I've got D1, especially if we're narrowing down to a few viable options.
Now for some "real talk". This is my second game of Mafia, and honestly it might be my last, at least for a while. I'm trying really hard to enjoy this game. I really am. But it seems like to me personally, the reward:effort ratio is not as high as I would have hoped, with perhaps too much emotional angst for my taste as well. It feels more like an obligation than recreation to me right now. And what effort I do put in seems to be rather pointless. My last several "substantial" posts were basically ignored. I feel like a pawn to be judged by the power players--"Oh Walrus made a post, great, he's not lurking too much, that'll do pig"--without really participating in a meaningful way. A lot of this game seems to be about familiarity with the other players, and that's something I just don't possess to the degree that many of you do--hence my focus on "meta" questions and statistics where I actually feel like I could contribute. To be honest I wouldn't be crushed if I were the lynch today, simply because it would free me up. But at the same time I don't want to let down the town by just giving up. So just feel like I'm sort of drifting along here, and I don't know if I have the dedication to put in to become a power player myself.
Should I sub out? Maybe. But I find that to be confusing and weird, so I think I'll stick it through, and maybe my opinion will turn around. Maybe I'm just having a moment of weakness; maybe everybody gets these. I certainly don't want to be a buzzkill here. I'm not trying to drum up some emotional sympathy or anything either; I don't need or want any special treatment. But I did want to express myself so maybe you can understand my mindset a little better.
Note that in the beginning he states that he doesn't find EFHW particularly scummy. Still he goes for that lynch at the end of the Day, without ever stating that his opinion on her has changed. The whole AtE thing reads scummy to me as well, and it worked out. I mean, I'm a new-ish player myself, so I can relate, but stating this when under pressure is just a scum thing to do.
Yep, as I've said, the AtE was pretty silly, and in hindsight it seems petty to my usual, Vulcan-like self. Such is the power of Mafia that it really can tweak with your psyche, eh?
Thanks for the kind words chairs. Yeah, I figured everyone must get burned out with this sometimes. I know not to take anything personally in this game, I can handle that. It's the sense of futility that was getting to me.
Alright Voltaire, you've convinced me for now. vote: EFHW instead.
I didn't consider Archetype in my most recent post because it seemed to me at first glance that the case built up around him was pretty flimsy. I'll do a reread on him later though.
He says Voltaire "convinced" him without elaborating how, and votes his null read EFHW.
I'm still working on honing my Day 1 scumometer, and as of right now it's not very good apparently. Takes practice I suppose. As I did mention in my thoughts on EFHW (which you can see there Jorbles, BTW), I was trending towards feeling scummy about her, and I eventually decided that she was probably hanging out in the scum zone between the active zone and the lurk zone. I'd also like to point out that I was under some pressure at the time, and reacting kind of defensively. I still do consider Voltaire kind of scummy, but I also know that he was under pressure at this point as well.
Are we really seriously this close to stalling out? I expected to wake up and see a bow neatly tied around things.
I could see the reasons behind a BoxOfDog lynch. He certainly has been acti-lurking in my perception, and whether he's town or not his contributions have been sparser and less substantial than average. There's also a couple of things he's said that have given off a scummy vibe.
The main reason I've been skeptical so far is because I went after a megalurker D1 before, and it didn't end up working out. And a lot of BoxOfDog's behavior does read to me as genuine, if a little excitable. Like that most recent comment about "gee I'll be so embarressed if ____ flips town." It's definitely a sentiment that's shared by town. It's probably something most of us wouldn't say outright, because it reads like a classic scumtell. But it seems consistent with Box's personality, and I agree that it seems like too easy of a lynch for scum to pile onto.
But it now seems to be the wagon with the momentum, and there's very little time left, so I'll try vote: BoxOfDog. If you think it's scummy that I'm moving my vote so late, and to a person I just defended, well, I think you're scummy for not being more flexible as we approach the deadline. "No lynch" is a fairly elementary town blunder, if I understand my basic Mafia theory correctly, but I still prefer EFHW or Voltaire.
I'll be awake until deadline but still on my phone.
Hops the Box wagon when it becomes viable, immediately stating why this is not scummy. This also brings us in the region of a no-lynch, which he later says he didn't know about. Well that could be true, or he just tried to play out his noobishness to force a no-lynch.
This wasn't my best moment here. I was legitimately confused about the rules and if I acted frantically towards the end of D1, that's why. But it was all because I thought we were heading towards a no-lynch, which I understand is not ideal. By the way, can somebody clarify whether the plurality rule will also apply tonight and subsequent nights?
Overall, Walrus seems scummy throughout all of this. And on top of it, if he flips scum, think think we can get some information on Box and Voltaire out of it.
If you say so!
Ha, so I've settled into the "jokey" meta, have I? Aww jeez, now I have to keep being funny! So...what's the deal with airline food? If I ever start acting real somber and posting in sonnets, you'll know I'm scum for sure.
A recent push for Eevee! I'm not sure what I think about that, as Eevee has been fairly unmemorable in this game to me, which of course suggests scum. I'd rather do a reread first, and my initial feeling is skepticism...his absences seemed to be genuine enough to me. Ehhh. I'll look into it later, maybe I'd get behind it. I'd rather vote for Box I think at this point.
I'm not 100% sold on my Arch vote. We can talk about M31 now that it's over, right? Well, in that game, I badly misread him, as did a number of other people I think. So that makes me give pause. But at the same time, I haven't really seen compelling evidence to vote for anyone else yet.
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vote: Walurs
So much "the case on me is good..." in there. I don't think I've ever seen that not be a scumtell (I'm sure it hasn't been, but I'm not aware of it, so...)
Also I have decided chairs is town. I can talk about M31 now. He was bumbling town. I think he's bumbling town here.
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vote: Walrus in case the misspelling made it not count.
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Vote Count 2.Voltaire
Archetype (3): WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, BoxOfDog
chairs (3): Archetype, Jorbles, theorel
Walrus (2): faust, Voltaire
Eevee (2): pps, chairs
not voting (2): xeiron, ashersky
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
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Finished waiting to see where everyone else's votes land, ash?
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chairs voting for Eevee actually makes me much more comfortable with my vote on chairs. Classic scum defense, go for a lurker.
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chairs voting for Eevee actually makes me much more comfortable with my vote on chairs. Classic scum defense, go for a lurker.
This would also mesh with me now being suspicious of ash.
Hmm.
No matter what, Eevee needs to get in here. Has it been enough time for a prod?
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Though I see the case on Walrus that faust made, I don't really buy it. Walrus's play is a little scummy if there were no other lynches on the table I guess I'd go along with it, but I'd much prefer a chairs lynch.
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And what is the scum narrative for chairs again? Take me through what he's thinking, and why he makes the choices he makes.
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I'm not sold on the walrus case at all. I would rather vote for scum than lurkers but I don't feel we have a car on one yet. I can tether my phone tonight to see if I can't be of more help to town.
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Eevee has been prodded.
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Ugh, it costs 2 dice from our supply to play a store die? I don't know about you guys, but my supply is so small that I'm beginning to wonder if I'll have any dice left to play by the end of this (assuming I survive that long).
Claims he has a low supply of dice, makes him less likely to be a perceived NK target and fishes for info on who has what sort of dice supply.
The plus side is that we can really examine this stuff, and I feel like it's more meaningful than RVS. Offhand, I'm leaning town on theorel (ensuring the proper math was clear so it was understood what the best rolling mechanisms are), slight town on EFHW/Volt/ashersky (EFHW for trying to weed out potential bad advice, volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing, and ashersky because he was concerned theorel was wrong - even though really ash was wrong, ensuring we were all on the same page was and is important when we look at how to best combat these monsters!). Basically null on everybody else, maybe slight scum on Box but I think that he's being truthful when he says that being emotional is just part of who he is. Slight town on faust (for the low roller suggestion) and pingpongsam (for endorsing it so quickly), though I'm not as sold on these two as any of my other "slight town" reads. Scum read on eevee for the "use your best judgment on claiming" statement - I feel like this is something we've seen scum say in prior games with the intent to bait out a claim or two from eager town (as I'm wont to be and trying hard not to do anymore, see innovation for an example).
His reads post in which he declares a town read on EFHW (bolding mine). (the other info in there can be referred to if/when we see his flip).
Just did a re-read. Wish shraeye were here to find me scummy for it. 8)
I have town reads on xeiron (thinking through theory/strategy), theorel (playing a clearly pro-town game and being targeted by scum [could he be faking it for cred? I guess, but I'd imagine it would be better used on other players]), Eevee (making his point about how we have to punish low rollers somehow), BoxofDog (derpclaiming number of dice and results).
I have null reads on chairs (mostly empty posts), pps (on re-read I could totally see scum being that brash), ash (playing how he always plays - I don't see the value in it and sometimes find it anti-town, but it's not an alignment tell), Archetype (unexplained vote and empty posts), faust (asking low rollers to go first is pro-town, but other than that I don't see anything from him).
I don't even remember EFHW, Jorbles, or Walrus.
No scum reads on anyone, which is to be expected. Jorbles, your rolling low does not make me want to auto-lynch you. But you haven't contributed anything since your low roll. That's bad.
Since shraeye isn't here, I'll do it for him. This post reads scummy to me. I don't think his heart is in it.
I agree that this feels kind of weak. It also feels a little like maybe a scum partner calling out his buddy for lurking... but!
chairs, my comment was a reply to ashersky's plan of our best monster hunters claiming. I think they should decide themselves. if we have a precedent of scum saying this, that's great. we want to force scum to take protown-positions.
in my opinion theorel's read post summarized the game this far in a very accurate way. I'd say him and PPS have been the most useful for town this far.
Rolling low numbers is factually scummier than rolling high numbers. I too would give most scrutiny to Jorbles, Voltaire and walrus.
I accept your scrutiny and think that I deserve it even if it's just because I was bad at rolling. Honestly if you lynched me for having the lowest rolls I don't think it would be a terrible thing, at least it would scare scum into rolling high.
I don't feel like if Jorbles were scum and Volt were scum that he'd have responded to Volt this way, because the "yeah go ahead and lynch me" scumtell seems like something you wouldn't reply to your scum buddies with. Therefore, I posit that if one flips scum, it is more likely than not that the other one is town. In particular, I feel like Jorbles is the more likely town member from this exchange, and will vote: Voltaire.
Declares that he finds Voltaire scummier than me. Votes Voltaire, and expresses a town read on me. (extended the bolding, to include relevant statements.
And he finds Voltaire scummy despite having found him towny just 15 posts earlier.
.... slight town on EFHW/Volt/ashersky (EFHW for trying to weed out potential bad advice, volt for trying to scumhunt during this whole thing, and ashersky because he was concerned theorel was wrong - even though really ash was wrong, ensuring we were all on the same page was and is important when we look at how to best combat these monsters!). ....
Now that is a good catch.
I thought that the post from Eevee (that I thought you'd authored) was really off from what I'd felt from you earlier, hence the "huh, that's... kind of scummy." and my vote. I'm still deciding whether I think it's scummy coming from Eevee, because my favorite furry pokémon plays differently than you do.
I'm really glad EFHW caught that, and I think it makes EFHW more towny.
More expression of a town read on EFHW. (again bolding mine)
vote: jorbles. That's l-2.
Reverses position on me for no reason when it looks like I'm close to being lynched.
There was a quote that's supposed to go here, but I lost it and don't have time to refind it. Basically when I claim and the wagon on me dissolves, he goes for another likely lynch at that point Walrus.
I don't see the argument Volt is suggesting regarding a possible scum Eevee as holding a ton of water, after thinking about it a while. However, the fact that he threw it out there instead of arguing that walrus should be lynched seems fairly Towny to me, since Walrus has a much easier case to be made against him (trying to seem town more than hunt scum, and low post count relative to others - albeit somewhat mollified in that he's attempting to make long posts, mostly).
Volt looks more Towny from this exchange and I'm leaning towards a vote: walrus (for the reasons mentioned).
Now he feels Voltaire is towny, and starts focusing on Walrus.
Volt, here are some quotes from you that I felt were scumhunting in the context of this game:
vote: ashersky
After thinking about it, I think he's pushing town in the wrong direction.
This is why people dislike having theory discussion...because people decide that differences of opinion in theory are scummy. Differences of opinion aren't scummy, voting people over it is scummy. Picking ashersky of all people to vote over a difference of opinion is completely ridiculous. You're vote here is at best as useful as RVS, at worst it's trying to cast suspicion where it's unwarranted.
vote: Voltaire
Well, I have already seen this in action. I have already made a theory-based mistake because I made a decision prior to your post, after seeing ash's "just roll dice" post and "everybody claim" and I foolishly didn't bother thinking through all those things thoroughly. Then you made your very helpful rundown post and I've seen the mistakes here. Then I thought that what happened to me is exactly what scum wants. So I voted ash. It's the most I've seen so far. I'm obviously not married to this decision.
There was no implied question. I made a statistical analysis. Trying to paint this as if I were fishing for Mafia-enriching information only confirms my suspicions on you.
Actually there is an implied question, whether you meant it or not. In order to defend myself, I would need to state the number of dice I rolled and what numbers came up.
I do not think mafia would be as brash as you have been, so I have a town read on you right now.
So is there any conclusion to draw other than scum has a PR that can ignore/discard/destroy/(count as negative) a die? That's what I'm thinking.
All these reactions are probably honest ones, because scum didn't have to think "hmmm...how would town react to this? I need to do that!" because there was no danger to begin with, and no expectation.
So...there was no point. Last time you did this, I remember you ended up suspecting and voting entirely town players.
I guess they may not be considered scumhunting in a traditional Mafia sense, but given how important the "side game" of monster hunting is, I felt these were relevant posts and contributed to Town goals. I think it also has pushed ash to at least try to not be confusing all game :P
He posts a fairly spirited defense for Voltaire. If chairs flips scum we need to look hard at Voltaire.
I personally think we should vote: walrus. Volt's got enough posts for later analysis, faust's making good points, and I can't read EFHW right now.
He keeps going for Walrus, but sets himself up to leap to EFHW if needed by saying he can't read her.
Trust me, we all have our emotional "I think I'm done with this" moments. I mean, me personally, I'm running into "Mafia is taking over time I could spend with my friends/family" issues since I suddenly have a social life, and Box is clearly in the same boat (did you see the schedule he mentioned having?). Don't forget not to take anything in Mafia personally - both town and scum members will poke and prod you with the goal of getting a reaction in an attempt to either deduce your alignment or in hopes of making you look more mislynch-worthy.
If we're boiling it down to Volt vs Walrus vs EFHW (and why aren't we considering Archetype as well as EFHW, they have the same vote count?), then I'm willing to let Walrus slide to D2 since IIRC his game 1 was a poo game and I'd love to see more new blood in our Mafia games. unvote while I consider alternatives.
I'm not sure what to make of his stepping back from Walrus. It looks like giving in to an appeal to emotion defense, which I guess could happen regardless of the players alignments. Can't glean much from it now.
I will not be around much this night, btw, until very late (ie after soft deadline) but I will be around tonight. Please don't hammer me until I can claim, even if the person stating intent to hammer still wants to hammer me afterwards. I will have parting words that I think will help town (that my flip will prove are true). Any hammering without letting me claim should be taken as an admission the hammerer is scum.
We really should lynch EFHW. Walrus seems to be too easy of a wagon, EFHW is blending in perfectly, just re-read at her, look at everyone else, and see what little of an impression there is. That's scum! Seriously, go do it.
I do see what you (and Walrus) mean about EFHW just "blending". I'm actually looking at EFHW vs Archetype and need to review Archetype before I decide.
Blatant sheep of Voltaire and Walrus for EFHW lynch. Fully reversing his original reads on her, he had specific reasons to find her towny before, but now she is blending and he's forgotten about them.
Sorry I wasn't on for the soft deadline. Are we looking at volt versus EFHW? I think out off these options I prefer EFHW. Bout voting until I see a clue count though.
States that he would prefer to lynch EFHW, but has done nothing but sheep. Honestly his trust of Voltaire is going to make me look really really hard at Voltaire if chairs flips scum like I suspect he will.
Hell, let's run this train into the ground.
vote: Archetype.
Now he's all for Archetype? That's new. He's basically just sheeping everyone.
vote:chairs
Stop what you're doing and look at the way he addressed my wagon.
Do you mean "Hell, let's run this train into the ground"? Because it seems like we're just casting about and it feels like we're all just wagoning onto relatively slight suspicions (which is true, because we dont' have any <i>scumslip</i> or anything to go off of and it's D1 so there's no flip).
Archetype points out what I'm noticing now. chairs just states that yep he's just leaping around voting for everyone, but tries to justify it by saying that everyone is doing it.
I'm not sold on the Box lynch, because I think he just kind of stumbles like this based on our prior (completed) game (NewMafia 4). I think he's really just emotional and "saying what he feels" without considering how it paints him in the f.ds ubermeta.
I won't be on past tonight, so vote: EFHW. I think that puts her at L-2.
Votes for EFHW. She is lynched.
Play: 1. If anybody can force a reroll for me, please do.
Claims to have rolled 3 dice and gotten a 1. As I already stated I think he's scum taking advantage of town's willingness to let low numbers go unpunished. I assume he stored a higher die roll so he could buy a PR tonight.
I'm still in the elite gang of phone posters. I would rather lynch eevee than walrus based on the arguments I just read.
vote: eevee
Sheeeeeeep. And the reasons he just read are PPS preferring a policy lynch on Eevee for his lurking. chairs says that there are "arguments" but it doesn't deserve a plural as there's only one reason stated in the posts he's referring to vote Eevee at this point, and it's that he's lurking.
Okay so aside from the improbable dice roll. He's been opportunistically leaping his vote around trying to get the most likely looking wagons to go through, and he has been sheeping like crazy to do it. (note: with the exception of Voltaire, the one player he made an effort to reread and defend in a big post)
(I realize that it's Voltaire who originally asked for this case, and well I can't expect him to get on board with this narrative as it makes him look pretty bad by association, but everyone else might find this case compelling.)
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This is the TL;DR graph of the case on chairs for those of you who just want the gist:
Okay so aside from the improbable dice roll. He's been opportunistically leaping his vote around trying to get the most likely looking wagons to go through, and he has been sheeping like crazy to do it. (note: with the exception of Voltaire, the one player he made an effort to reread and defend in a big post)
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Actually that's pretty good, Jorbles. Chairs has been rl super-busy though, so I'm afraid of lynching sheeping town play because that was all the time he had to devote to this game.
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I'm not sold on the walrus case at all. I would rather vote for scum than lurkers but I don't feel we have a car on one yet. I can tether my phone tonight to see if I can't be of more help to town.
I am a bit torn on "whether lynch scum or lurkers"
Right now, my stomach feeling says Archetype, Ashersky and pingpongsam is scum. The problem is, all of those risky to lynch because they are high-rollers and/or active contributers in a game close to stalling out. A mislynch of any of them would hurt.
Lynching lurkers would be less risky as a mislynch will not hurt as much. And I am not really so sure the three I mentioned are scum. I have a nullread on Eevee, and he has said close to nothing D2, so I have little infomation to help me get a better read. He could wery well be mafia And if he doesn't post more the only way to find out would be a lynch.
I am not opposed to lynching Chairs either. It is mostly the tripple that make me suspicious. I noticed that he claimed to roll 3 dice before Jorbles clarified that he could only determine no. of dice on the new roll. He could scum that planned to claim 1 die, but was afraid Jorbles could catch him in a lie.
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Right now, my stomach feeling says Archetype, Ashersky and pingpongsam is scum
Gut feelings are not very useful in this game. I'd like to see your case made on me and ashersky. I'm feeling you on Archetype already.
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Finished waiting to see where everyone else's votes land, ash?
Oh yeah. Haven't had a hammer in awhile. Need to extend my lead.
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I'm here! I had a bunch of stuff going on yesterday (and most likely the rest of today) so expect minimal posting for a little while (and by a little while I mean like a day).
I see the Walrus case and raise you a chairs one. I still think that he's scum and Jorbles being behind it makes me even more comfortable with it. Since Modern Community is over, I will that chairs seems more 'aware' in this game than he was in that one. I don't know if that's a definite scum!trait for him, but it's something.
I would be OK with a Walrus lynch if push came to shove, but I'd prefer chairs today.
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I'm now in only one game that's in Day instead of 3, and Modern Community frequently had 5+ pages of posting when I went to read it. Of course I'm more 'aware' here, where we're practically trying to set a record for low post counts!
I feel the same way in this game that I did that game, though - it feels like we're chasing our tails as town and scum is just sitting back laughing at us.
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vote: Walurs
So much "the case on me is good..." in there. I don't think I've ever seen that not be a scumtell (I'm sure it hasn't been, but I'm not aware of it, so...)
Also I have decided chairs is town. I can talk about M31 now. He was bumbling town. I think he's bumbling town here.
Sorry Voltaire, you used your vote on Walurs and that's that, no take backs. Poor old Walurs (who I'm imagining to be a Dutch version of myself).
Seriously though, I don't think my post reads "the case on me is good". In fact, I went through and addressed the case point-by-point to show why I believe the case to be a non-case, refuting and contextualizing as appropriate. Maybe I just did it more amicably than you'd expect? If you've never seen this style not be a scumtell before, well, there's a first time for everything then I guess.
Jorbles megapost seemed quite convincing to me. When all the evidence is spelled out like that it looks a lot worse for him, and the potential association between chairs and Voltaire comes into focus. I will vote: chairs for the time being.
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Okay, did my Day 1 re-read of Eevee. He focuses on scumreads on Voltaire and Archetype most of the day. Gives very few town reads whatsoever. That's a scum!tell for Eevee, as I've previously argued elsewhere.
When Eevee is town, he town hunts for partners to not lynch. When Eevee is scum, he scum hunts for mislynches.
vote: eevee
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Vote Count 2.5
Archetype (2): Eevee, BoxOfDog
chairs (4): Archetype, Jorbles, theorel, WalrusMcFishSr
WalrusMcFishSr (2): faust, Voltaire
Eevee (3): pingpongsam, chairs, ashersky
not voting (1): xeiron
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Summoner will be defeated.
Target: 12d6
Total: 49
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Might need to vote Jorbles if he withholds his power. That would be mega anti town.
Also, deadline soon.
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I would argue having no flip from an NK has really hurt our ability to POE today.
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I'm not sold on the walrus case at all. I would rather vote for scum than lurkers but I don't feel we have a car on one yet. I can tether my phone tonight to see if I can't be of more help to town.
I am a bit torn on "whether lynch scum or lurkers"
Right now, my stomach feeling says Archetype, Ashersky and pingpongsam is scum. The problem is, all of those risky to lynch because they are high-rollers and/or active contributers in a game close to stalling out. A mislynch of any of them would hurt.
Lynching lurkers would be less risky as a mislynch will not hurt as much. And I am not really so sure the three I mentioned are scum. I have a nullread on Eevee, and he has said close to nothing D2, so I have little infomation to help me get a better read. He could wery well be mafia And if he doesn't post more the only way to find out would be a lynch.
I am not opposed to lynching Chairs either. It is mostly the tripple that make me suspicious. I noticed that he claimed to roll 3 dice before Jorbles clarified that he could only determine no. of dice on the new roll. He could scum that planned to claim 1 die, but was afraid Jorbles could catch him in a lie.
It would really help if you put down your vote, xeiron.
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So, I'm happy we're considering different lynches now. I'm really torn between Eevee, chairs and Walrus, all of them make decent lynches I think. An Eevee lynch gives us little information though, as he barely voted anyone. And I still like Walrus over chairs. BUT, if there's any way I can prevent an Archetype lynch by switching my vote between those three, I will absolutely do it.
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Might need to vote Jorbles if he withholds his power. That would be mega anti town.
Also, deadline soon.
Yes, everyone shuld check out their QTs.
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I've only voted for archetype because I has always been my preferred lynch and also viable.
This case on chairs is great though, especially coming from Jorbles. vote: chairs
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I am going to be here (http://mountainoasisfestival.com/) at deadline. I'll try to be as present as possible on my way to Asheville tomorrow.
I'd like to see theorel's input after this wagon shifting. He didn't seem wholly committed to his chairs vote a couple days ago.
Can we get a prod theorel?
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Also maybe prod boxofdog?
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Man, I will go back to voting chairs just to prevent an Archetype lynch. But really, don't we want to lynch someone who is actually scummy? Noone has responded to my Walrus suspicion. Anything? pingpongsam? ashersky? Jorbles?
Based on my scum-reads, looking at where walrus votes doesn't sell me that he's scum unless he is clever bussing scum. I think the walrus wagon has merit otherwise and I would be willing put my vote there because I am not entirely convinced of any of my reads.
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Eevee was on my favorite bus (Archetype) from the D2 get go. I voted him for policy and when he got prodded he jumped off the bus onto the hottest wagon. Lazy town or lazy scum realizing he almost bussed a partner?
What I do know is the Archetype and walrus wagons just won't roll. The chairs wagon looks like it will roll. Which one is more likely to have scum on it? That Eevee and Walrus were both on the Archetype wagon is the conundrum for me.
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Eevee was on my favorite bus (Archetype) from the D2 get go. I voted him for policy and when he got prodded he jumped off the bus onto the hottest wagon. Lazy town or lazy scum realizing he almost bussed a partner?
What I do know is the Archetype and walrus wagons just won't roll. The chairs wagon looks like it will roll. Which one is more likely to have scum on it? That Eevee and Walrus were both on the Archetype wagon is the conundrum for me.
I'd jump back to archetype in a heartbeat if it became viable again. I don't know how to make that happen though.
I do legitimately support the chairs wagon as well.
I don't agree with you making assumptions on other people's alignments based on what you think Archetype will flip though. We should lynch him and analyze after that!
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I'm still good with my chairs vote. I'd be happy with a Walrus or Eevee lynch also.
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vote: chairs I will always remain sucpicious of chairs after that roll, so I thing a flip on him would really help.
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My vote on Eevee is strictly policy.
for now I favor a Vote: Archetype
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Vote Count 2.6
Archetype (2): BoxOfDog, pingpongsam
chairs (6): Archetype, Jorbles, theorel, WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, xeiron (L-1)
WalrusMcFishSr (2): faust, Voltaire
Eevee (2): chairs, ashersky
not voting (0):
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Summoner will be defeated.
Target: 12d6
Total: 49
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It looks to me it's between chairs and Archetype now, given the time constraint. For once I actually approve of both viable lynch wagons at the end of the day!
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vote: archetype.
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Might need to vote Jorbles if he withholds his power. That would be mega anti town.
Also, deadline soon.
I think we need to conserve dice. I'm happy with an 89% chance of beating the monster.
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unvote. Gah. Activity is good for later at least.
I am fine with Jorbles waiting since the dice clearly come from somewhere. 89% is fine. Ash, you wanted to claim something before the day ends, right?
I am willing to vote for either Arch or chairs but I want to re-read them both first.
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Might need to vote Jorbles if he withholds his power. That would be mega anti town.
Also, deadline soon.
I think we need to conserve dice. I'm happy with an 89% chance of beating the monster.
I think we need to be able to purchase power early on, and that that's more important than keeping dice.
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I am willing to vote for either Arch or chairs but I want to re-read them both first.
So I've returned to thinking chairs is town.
Hell, let's run this train into the ground.
vote: Archetype.
Does scum do this? Seriously, where has scum done this. I see bumbling town for chairs. I see nothing else.
Arch I could vote for. But I actually prefer vote: Walrus. He took heat D1, wasn't lynched, it's been more difficult to rebuild the wagon today, "case on me is good" stuff (in my eyes), low roll D1, etc.
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The walrus wagon is one I think worth joining. I just don't see it happening today.
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The walrus wagon is one I think worth joining. I just don't see it happening today.
That makes me feel better about it. The current meta is it's good to take heat early as scum. I literally said yesterday the Walrus wagon felt too easy, and now it won't go through! I definitely think it can be viable today. chairs vote on Archetype looks like pure self-preservation.
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For the record, I think ash's point on Eevee is good and worth looking at tomorrow. I think the truly heavy lurking is more likely from town.
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*though (should have been at the end of that last post)
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Might need to vote Jorbles if he withholds his power. That would be mega anti town.
Also, deadline soon.
I think we need to conserve dice. I'm happy with an 89% chance of beating the monster.
I agree, we need this more later.
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OK. Voltaire is apparently one of my most vocal opponents here. He also continues to give off scummy vibes to me. And he persists in defending chairs now. This makes me feel even better about the chairs vote...the flip will tell me (at least) a lot more about how I should be feeling about Volt, i.e. how much of this suspicion is legitimate and how much is just OMGUS. Plus I think there's a real chance chairs'll turn scum, given the evidence that has already been presented. I will keep my vote there for now.
I would be fine with the Arch lynch too. Eevee I'm less sold about...quite lurky indeed, and I wouldn't be broken up about it, but I just think there are better possibilities for today.
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Please be careful about drawing conclusions from unknown flips. Chairs could flip scum, but that doesn't make me scum. I do not think chairs is the best lynch today.
Has Box been prodded?
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Please be careful about drawing conclusions from unknown flips. Chairs could flip scum, but that doesn't make me scum. I do not think chairs is the best lynch today.
Has Box been prodded?
Yeah that's reasonable. That's why I'd like to make it a *known* flip! Then we could draw some legit conclusions.
And it's not the only reason to vote for him. Just the cherry on the chairs-lynch sundae.
Besides, what about the reverse? Chairs could flip town (although of course I'm hoping he wouldn't), and that would vindicate you somewhat in my mind. Your last post seemed kind of preemptively defensive in that regard...but then you were responding to my accusation, so maybe that's fair.
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BoxOfDog has been prodded.
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Voltaire: I'm curious where you thought your vote was when you unvoted.
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Voltaire: I'm curious where you thought your vote was when you unvoted.
It was on Walrus. Then I went back.
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Oh, yeah I see. You went from walrus to novote back to walrus, gotcha.
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Eevee ignoring my case makes me feel better about my vote.
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Eevee ignoring my case makes me feel better about my vote.
You feel better about pissing your vote into the wind?
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Eevee ignoring my case makes me feel better about my vote.
What kind of response were you hoping for? It's a fine line of thinking, I agree that's generally how I've been playing, although recently, such as in modern community where I was in a similar position as I'm here as town as far as taking reads go, I had more scum reads and town reads.
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Wait - you were a survivor (third party) in MC.
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Wait - you were a survivor (third party) in MC.
I was scumhunting just like I was town though (well maybe I was a tiny bit more supportive of lynching people that aren't me).
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Posting to say I'm here. I'm still alright with a chairs lynch going through.
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Eevee ignoring my case makes me feel better about my vote.
What kind of response were you hoping for? It's a fine line of thinking, I agree that's generally how I've been playing, although recently, such as in modern community where I was in a similar position as I'm here as town as far as taking reads go, I had more scum reads and town reads.
An acknowledgement. What you did was ignore it and instead claim that only chairs and Archetype are possible lynches today, although at one point you had 3 votes, as has Walrus.
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Eevee ignoring my case makes me feel better about my vote.
What kind of response were you hoping for? It's a fine line of thinking, I agree that's generally how I've been playing, although recently, such as in modern community where I was in a similar position as I'm here as town as far as taking reads go, I had more scum reads and town reads.
An acknowledgement. What you did was ignore it and instead claim that only chairs and Archetype are possible lynches today, although at one point you had 3 votes, as has Walrus.
Well, there you go! I thought the momentum on me or Walrus was fading. We have less than a day to pick a lynch.
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Eevee ignoring my case makes me feel better about my vote.
You feel better about pissing your vote into the wind?
No, and I will switch if needed before deadline. But I much prefer to lynch someone who has a better chance of being scum. An Eevee that lurks on Day 2, that deflects to other lynches, that only has scum reads, that's an Eevee that very well could be scum.
The continual pushing of only two people for lynches makes me think these are both mislynches being pushed by scum.
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I actually buy the Eevee case now. vote: Eevee.
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Eevee ignoring my case makes me feel better about my vote.
You feel better about pissing your vote into the wind?
No, and I will switch if needed before deadline. But I much prefer to lynch someone who has a better chance of being scum. An Eevee that lurks on Day 2, that deflects to other lynches, that only has scum reads, that's an Eevee that very well could be scum.
The continual pushing of only two people for lynches makes me think these are both mislynches being pushed by scum.
Is Eevee really lurking that much when you consider that he had an important role in another game that just ended (MC) that he would have been prioritizing? I was prioritizing MC over this game as it was further along.
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Eevee ignoring my case makes me feel better about my vote.
You feel better about pissing your vote into the wind?
No, and I will switch if needed before deadline. But I much prefer to lynch someone who has a better chance of being scum. An Eevee that lurks on Day 2, that deflects to other lynches, that only has scum reads, that's an Eevee that very well could be scum.
The continual pushing of only two people for lynches makes me think these are both mislynches being pushed by scum.
Is Eevee really lurking that much when you consider that he had an important role in another game that just ended (MC) that he would have been prioritizing? I was prioritizing MC over this game as it was further along.
This is obviously true for me as well.
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So the f.ds crash killed my last post.
I was pointing out that Eevee's lurking isn't the most egregious of his sins, and that Theorel has been much worse on that front.
I know he was sick, is he okay? Anyone seen him around anywhere else?
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Vote Count 2.ash
Archetype (4):[/b] WalrusMcFishSr, BoxOfDog, pingpongsam, chairs
chairs (5): Archetype, Jorbles, theorel, Eevee, xeiron (L-2)
WalrusMcFishSr (1): faust
Eevee (2): ashersky, Voltaire
not voting (0):
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
This is updated with a few changes. I was hoping we'd have a lot of people around to talk it out.
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Of the wagons, chairs's has more scummy people on it.
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And do we agree with Jorbles that we don't want to use an extra roll to help our chances against the monster? Is 89% enough?
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And do we agree with Jorbles that we don't want to use an extra roll to help our chances against the monster? Is 89% enough?
I think it is.
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Of the wagons, chairs's has more scummy people on it.
I actually feel comfortable with the people on it. Mostly town and null reads from my position me, but there's some chicken and egg stuff there. Do I not find them scummy because they agree with me or do they agree with me because it's not scummy to go after chairs?
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Archetype: WalrusMcFishSr, BoxOfDog, pingpongsam
chairs: Jorbles, theorel, Eevee, xeiron
Taking out voting for each other, here is the comparison.
Jorbles, you find {theorel, eevee, xeiron} townier than {Walrus, Box, PPS}?
I'd put Theo and Eevee in the scummy half in the first set and Box in the scummy half of the second set. X is null, Walrus is null, PPS is a town read. Even putting you in the towny side of the first set for me, I still end up with 50% scumreads on chairs and only 33% scum reads on Arch.
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I think taking both chairs and I out will skew your perception. If you leave us in, you can see that I've urged a chairs lynch while chairs has OMGUS-ed.
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I think taking both chairs and I out will skew your perception. If you leave us in, you can see that I've urged a chairs lynch while chairs has OMGUS-ed.
I just don't think either of you voting for each other (in and of itself) is an alignment tell. I'm trying to discern if I think more scummy people have voted for one or the other of you.
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I feel that chairs is likely Town. With Eevee voting for Walrus I believe on or the other is Town but not both.
I feel Archetype to be scum so my vote stands there but I am willing to switch to either Eevee or Walrus.
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So the f.ds crash killed my last post.
I was pointing out that Eevee's lurking isn't the most egregious of his sins, and that Theorel has been much worse on that front.
I know he was sick, is he okay? Anyone seen him around anywhere else?
I'm mostly well. Family is mostly sick right now. I'm around, although I'm currently not caught up on the thread here.
I'll try to catch up. Glancing over the current wagons, my initial opinion is that I like chairs' wagon better...essentially from my perspective:
Jorbles > PPS, xeiron > Box, Eevee > Walrus.
Where > = townier than.
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vote: archetype
Not sure if I'm around closer to deadline as it'll be the weekend here soon. In the end, I trust PPS's read more, and the fact that Eevee is voting for chairs makes me feel better about an Arch vote.
If I'm around near deadline tomorrow, I will change my vote to ensure we lynch. A No Lynch would be disastrous for town.
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Interesting.
Interesting interesting.
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Interesting.
Interesting interesting.
That's a scum!archetype tell, by the way.
I prefer Eevee, you know.
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Vote: chairs
The last few posts would also make me more comfortable voting for Eevee, but that wagon doesn't seem to be viable today. And I have to vote chairs now to prevent an Archetype lynch. That's L-1, by the way.
There's not much difference in scumminess of the wagons, both have people I'm concerned about on them, which is why I'd prefer an Eevee or Walrus lynch.
I do NOT agree that Jorbles shouldn't use his power.
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Note that as it stands, there can be no other lynch than chairs unless someone voting for chairs changes their vote. So chairs, this might be a good time to claim.
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We are at what, 16 hours? I may not have much time online before deadline, so it is time I reveal.
I've thought this through as much as I can, and in the end town having this knowledge overrides anything else.
There is a Roleblocker in the game, and I believe it is scum.
That is the only thing I want to reveal. I considered the possibility of a town Roleblocker, as it isn't so uncommon, but I think, from what I learned, it is highly likely a scum role here.
It doesn't help us catch scum, although it says something to me about Theorel in that he is very much town in my eyes. I wanted to see what claims/reactions would come from my question about targeting him, and not revealing much more (including my strong town read, since it was based on this), but it seems scum decided to stay quiet. I don't know that I expected anything but that, but maybe they could have had a plan.
At this point, it does affect our lynching. It should be taken into consideration for nights.
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Vote Count 2.7
Archetype (4): BoxOfDog, pingpongsam, chairs, ashersky
chairs (7): Archetype, Jorbles, theorel, WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, xeiron, faust
Eevee (1): Voltaire
not voting (0):
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day ends at 8pm October 25 forum time, or when a lynch occurs. If the Total is at least the Target, the Summoner will be defeated.
Target: 12d6
Total: 49
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Unless everyone on the Archetype wagon wants to join Voltaire on the Eevee wagon I am willing to hammer chairs once he has a chance to claim so that this Day ends before I have to go out of town. In fact, since we are at an impasse I'll Vote: Eevee.
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vote: eevee
Highly preferred to both chairs and arch. Faust too, right? That's 4.
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vote: eevee
Highly preferred to both chairs and arch. Faust too, right? That's 4.
Why? :(
Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
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So this is all weird. I have been getting bad feelings about ash all day prior to his claim. Now that he has made a limited claim, I'm not sure what I think. Either way this is not a "deal with today" sort of thing.
A reminder we lynch the person with the most votes by default. If two people are tied, we no-lynch.
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vote: eevee
Highly preferred to both chairs and arch. Faust too, right? That's 4.
Why? :(
Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
I feel pretty good about my eevee theory with the types of reads you give in scum games vs town games. If I'm right, you'll adjust in the future, but I think it was an unconscious think for you.
I don't have strong feelings on arch/chairs, and the way they've both limped to the finish line tells me scum is fine with both, and that's bad.
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I don't have strong feelings on arch/chairs, and the way they've both limped to the finish line tells me scum is fine with both, and that's bad.
Compare/contrast that to your earlier statement that stalled wagons are scum wagons?
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So this is all weird. I have been getting bad feelings about ash all day prior to his claim. Now that he has made a limited claim, I'm not sure what I think. Either way this is not a "deal with today" sort of thing.
A reminder we lynch the person with the most votes by default. If two people are tied, we no-lynch.
Volt, you always have bad feelings about me. The day you don't, I'll be scum.
Why am I not tunneling you, by the way? That's what always happens when you are town. Hmmm...
Anyway, I do think it was pro-town to remind folks about the lynch rules. I know I had forgotten.
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vote: eevee
Highly preferred to both chairs and arch. Faust too, right? That's 4.
Why? :(
Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
I feel pretty good about my eevee theory with the types of reads you give in scum games vs town games. If I'm right, you'll adjust in the future, but I think it was an unconscious think for you.
I don't have strong feelings on arch/chairs, and the way they've both limped to the finish line tells me scum is fine with both, and that's bad.
The theory didn't hold true in community (and dynasty warriors is still ongoing).
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I don't have strong feelings on arch/chairs, and the way they've both limped to the finish line tells me scum is fine with both, and that's bad.
Compare/contrast that to your earlier statement that stalled wagons are scum wagons?
Wagons that stall early are wagons on scum, generally. I think you could empirically prove that.
Multiple wagons that stay big for a long period of time are generally on town. Modern Community is a good recent example of that. I think scum doesn't care who gets to L-1, and that they'll be happy to hammer for "saved the day" cred close to deadline, with plenty of excuses for a mislynch. I font know that these guys are given, but I think that what I am laying out is a decent suspicion.
We wasn't people making statements on players that we can check out later. Arch/chairs votes at this point are basically free of responsibility. Those are scum's favorite kinds of votes.
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vote: eevee
Highly preferred to both chairs and arch. Faust too, right? That's 4.
Why? :(
Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
I feel pretty good about my eevee theory with the types of reads you give in scum games vs town games. If I'm right, you'll adjust in the future, but I think it was an unconscious think for you.
I don't have strong feelings on arch/chairs, and the way they've both limped to the finish line tells me scum is fine with both, and that's bad.
The theory didn't hold true in community (and dynasty warriors is still ongoing).
You weren't scum in mc.
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vote: eevee
Highly preferred to both chairs and arch. Faust too, right? That's 4.
Why? :(
Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
I feel pretty good about my eevee theory with the types of reads you give in scum games vs town games. If I'm right, you'll adjust in the future, but I think it was an unconscious think for you.
I don't have strong feelings on arch/chairs, and the way they've both limped to the finish line tells me scum is fine with both, and that's bad.
The theory didn't hold true in community (and dynasty warriors is still ongoing).
You weren't scum in mc.
And I mostly had scum reads.
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vote: eevee
Highly preferred to both chairs and arch. Faust too, right? That's 4.
Why? :(
Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
I feel pretty good about my eevee theory with the types of reads you give in scum games vs town games. If I'm right, you'll adjust in the future, but I think it was an unconscious think for you.
I don't have strong feelings on arch/chairs, and the way they've both limped to the finish line tells me scum is fine with both, and that's bad.
The theory didn't hold true in community (and dynasty warriors is still ongoing).
You weren't scum in mc.
And I mostly had scum reads.
What about the rest of my case on you?
I'd add "pops back in thread immediately when the pressure's back on" to it.
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Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
Then why are you voting chairs?
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vote: eevee
Highly preferred to both chairs and arch. Faust too, right? That's 4.
Why? :(
Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
I feel pretty good about my eevee theory with the types of reads you give in scum games vs town games. If I'm right, you'll adjust in the future, but I think it was an unconscious think for you.
I don't have strong feelings on arch/chairs, and the way they've both limped to the finish line tells me scum is fine with both, and that's bad.
The theory didn't hold true in community (and dynasty warriors is still ongoing).
You weren't scum in mc.
And I mostly had scum reads.
What about the rest of my case on you?
I'd add "pops back in thread immediately when the pressure's back on" to it.
More of a sign in not being terribly into the game yet. (MC took a lot of my focus and I have DW to worry about as well.) I've been prodded twice in this game..
Fwiw, I'm maybe even more interested in Archetype than I am in chairs.
Then why are you voting chairs?
It seemed/seems more viable to go through. I don't find Archetype significantly better.
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It seemed/seems more viable to go through. I don't find Archetype significantly better.
Before I moved my vote to you all it would have taken was for you to switch to Archetype to make his the most viable wagon. This line of reasoning isn't adding up.
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It seemed/seems more viable to go through. I don't find Archetype significantly better.
Before I moved my vote to you all it would have taken was for you to switch to Archetype to make his the most viable wagon. This line of reasoning isn't adding up.
I thought I made it clear that I'm willing to switch if Archetype seems to be going through.
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Well, the only votes I'd be willing to cast today are, in order of preference, Archetype, Walrus, Eevee.
Walrus isn't happening. Archetype appeared stalled with chairs garnering one more than.
There was a remaining vote on Eevee that would either hammer chairs or make a no-lynch scenario if moved to Archetype. It made sense for me to move my vote to Eevee although I am 50/50 on his being Town. However, if Eevee is willing to move to Archetype and all the other previous votes on Archetype move there then the Archetype wagon is the prevailing wagon.
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Well, uhm... that's an interesting ~12 hours to come back to.
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vote count please
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vote: archetype
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I am about to head out for a drive and be V/LA for the rest of the day. I'll try to check in but posting while driving may be a bit of an issue, lol.
Vote: Archetype
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I think that is L-1 on Archetype.
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I think it is L-2. Ashersky moved off him, I moved off and back on. Eevee moved on thus replacing ash.
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I believe both wagons to be L-2 with ashersky and Voltaire to be outstanding votes currently on Eevee.
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So after all of that, it's still chairs vs. archetype? Yuck.
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It looked like ashersky was willing to vote Archetype so Voltaire, you can abstain out of conscientious objection unless something else changes.
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:o
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Archetype: WalrusMcFishSr, BoxOfDog, pingpongsam
chairs: Jorbles, theorel, Eevee, xeiron
Taking out voting for each other, here is the comparison.
Jorbles, you find {theorel, eevee, xeiron} townier than {Walrus, Box, PPS}?
I'd put Theo and Eevee in the scummy half in the first set and Box in the scummy half of the second set. X is null, Walrus is null, PPS is a town read. Even putting you in the towny side of the first set for me, I still end up with 50% scumreads on chairs and only 33% scum reads on Arch.
Yes, when you include myself, and Archetype on the list. I find me, Archetype, and xeiron to be towny, null on eevee, and slight scum on theorel. Box, and chairs I find scummy. Null on PPS and Walrus.
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So this is all weird. I have been getting bad feelings about ash all day prior to his claim. Now that he has made a limited claim, I'm not sure what I think. Either way this is not a "deal with today" sort of thing.
A reminder we lynch the person with the most votes by default. If two people are tied, we no-lynch.
Volt, you always have bad feelings about me. The day you don't, I'll be scum.
Why am I not tunneling you, by the way? That's what always happens when you are town. Hmmm...
Anyway, I do think it was pro-town to remind folks about the lynch rules. I know I had forgotten.
fwiw I would lynch Voltaire, but I think we're too far along for that.
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It looked like ashersky was willing to vote Archetype so Voltaire, you can abstain out of conscientious objection unless something else changes.
If ashersky doesn't come along in the next few hours it will ave to be Voltaire who decides.
I just got checked in and will be heading out soon so I'll probably be just a spectator at deadline.
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I won't be around at the exact deadline. Are both wagons currently tied? I don't want to vote for either but will if needed to avoid no-lynch.
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By my count they are tied. An official vote count would be nice. T-minus 3 hours.
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Uhhh, I just looked at the most recent vote count, and it erroneously has my vote on Archetype instead of chairs...did I just time travel hammer?
I'll be home from work in about a half hour and then I'll double check.
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Indeed, Walrus' last vote was chairs. That should put chairs at L-1. Only Voltaire and ashersky combined can swing it onto Archetype.
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We need a mod to confirm but if the count was right except for Walrus' vote then chairs got hammered a long time ago. And if he is L-1 there is no way to swing it with 2 votes. I do believe chairs is the lynch unless there were other errors AND someone changes their vote shortly, which seems rather unlikely.
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We need a mod to confirm but if the count was right except for Walrus' vote then chairs got hammered a long time ago. And if he is L-1 there is no way to swing it with 2 votes. I do believe chairs is the lynch unless there were other errors AND someone changes their vote shortly, which seems rather unlikely.
I don't know, you'll have to wait for Jimmmm to get on.
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Yep. It was a lynch.
Vote Count 2.FINAL
Archetype (4): BoxOfDOG, pingpongsam, chairs, ashersky
chairs (7): Archetype, Jorbles, theorel, Walrus, Eevee, xeiron, faust
Eevee (1): Voltaire
Flavor and flip added by Jimmm later
THREAD LOCKED
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Dear all. I sincerely apologise for the error. If you feel hard done by, I sympathise and ask that you save discussion about it until after the game.
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[Flavour later]
chairs has been lynched.
(http://imgur.com/42xqxXk.png)
Final Vote Count 2.7
Archetype (4): BoxOfDog, pingpongsam, chairs, ashersky
chairs (7): Archetype, Jorbles, theorel, WalrusMcFishSr, Eevee, xeiron, faust
Eevee (1): Voltaire
not voting (0):
With 12 alive it took 7 to lynch.
The Summoner is defeated!
Target: 45
Total: 49
Night actions are due by 7pm October 27 forum time.
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Summoner Reward:
There is a Reward.
That is all.
-
Game over. Draw.
Sorry everyone. I tried my best. :'(
Mod QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/EpuFCCn5KHYZ
Mafia QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/XjBeXRhkgk3
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Damn, I was really loving this game up until the upset.
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Damn, I was really loving this game up until the upset.
Wow, you are so good at being mafia. Had me fooled completely.
Jimmm, mistakes happen. Let's all just move on!
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As you will have seen, PPS and I were the remaining scum.
I agree with PPS that this was a great setup. I think jimmmmm's goal of seeing how much scum would hurt itself for town cred through the monster fights was met. It was a really neat addition to the normal mafia calculus.
I really hope you run it again, maybe with tweaks or updates, in the future. I'm sorry it ended this way.
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Damn, I was really loving this game up until the upset.
Wow, you are so good at being mafia. Had me fooled completely.
Jimmm, mistakes happen. Let's all just move on!
I agree. It's sad that it ended this way, but these things happen. And afer all, it's just a game.
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I was surprised to see no town PRs. Ironic, actually, because is railed on people for making too many assumptions in MC, and here I was doing the same thing. I need to listen to myself.
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I'm curious, townies who bought vig shots--who were you going to kill?
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Oh dang it! And I thought I was doing so well! I knew one of ashersky/BoxOfDog was scum, but I needed chairs' flip to figure out.
I was planning on buying a Vig tonight and....
If chairs flipped Town I would shoot BoxOfDog.
If chairs was scum I would shoot ashersky.
PPS was so Towny to me, though. So great job! You had me fooled!
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Oh dang it! And I thought I was doing so well! I knew one of ashersky/BoxOfDog was scum, but I needed chairs' flip to figure out.
I was planning on buying a Vig tonight and....
If chairs flipped Town I would shoot BoxOfDog.
If chairs was scum I would shoot ashersky.
PPS was so Towny to me, though. So great job! You had me fooled!
Yeah, when we worked the lynch over to you, I needed you to die or I was toast.
You should all note I did not lie in my claim. There was a scum Roleblocker, and he did block Theorel.
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I'm curious, townies who bought vig shots--who were you going to kill?
I was going to shoot Voltaire. I had also thought of pps, but Voltaire acted really weird towards chairs. Well, it wouldn't have been one of my better decisions, but I think an additional flip would have helped town either way.
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Oh dang it! And I thought I was doing so well! I knew one of ashersky/BoxOfDog was scum, but I needed chairs' flip to figure out.
I was planning on buying a Vig tonight and....
If chairs flipped Town I would shoot BoxOfDog.
If chairs was scum I would shoot ashersky.
PPS was so Towny to me, though. So great job! You had me fooled!
Yeah, when we worked the lynch over to you, I needed you to die or I was toast.
D1 you buddied me a lot...until I proposed a chairs lynch. You constantly wanting a BoD lynch was really weird because you did that both D1 and D2. And chairs' lie was sooooo bad that I would've been very surprised if he hadn't turned up scum. But I also got really lucky rolling both a 6 and 5 on D1 and D2. Going into D3, though, I felt like I would have enough towncred (and possibly confirmed Town if you didn't have a Bulletproof) that I most likely would let everyone know that I would be rolling last or not at all so that I could use my power.
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Awww man!! What happened? Is it because of what I did?? I was so happy about doing something right for once :( Didn't mean to crash the whole game.
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FWIW I was going to go after Voltaire next. I had a reasonably towny read on PPS and a null read on ash. So I think they still had a decent shot from where I stand.
I find this outcome to be incredibly unsatisfying.
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I'm thinking it might be because of the chairs hammer.
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Awww man!! What happened? Is it because of what I did?? I was so happy about doing something right for once :( Didn't mean to crash the whole game.
This - why is the game over? Town derphammered someone, a vote count was wrong, but I feel like it's kind of an assumption on everyone's part to help out the mod by looking at those - I guess scum felt too damaged by it? That would be reasonable, I guess.
Jimmmmm, let us know why the game is over! :-\
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Man, I need to listen to my gut more! I felt bad about PPS early D1 and then you had me convinced you were town. Like, as convinced as one can be without a mod result.
Ash on the other hand I was catching on to. You were just being too helpful! :)
But I agree with everyone else - after I saw chairs's flip, I knew I would have to really work hard to avoid being the D3 lynch. I was essentially a VT at that point, too, as I had almost no dice left, a stored five, and nothin' else. I think this one may have actually been close - especially if I had been vigged tonight!
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I just read through the scum QT and I see their perspective. I want to make it clear that I don't blame the scum or mods or anybody for what happened, and I understand your point of view. Surely it was an awkward situation.
Can't help feeling unsatisfied though.
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Jimmmmm, let us know why the game is over! :-\
It's in the scum QT. I tried to salvage the game but apparently it was unsalvageable.
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For the record, I agree with yuma on this one. It's up to players to check vote counts as they happen. It sucks for scum the day went the way it did, but these things happen. I thought that we derplynched town, and I didn't mind.
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As my name was brought up in the mafia QT, I feel I should post my viewpoint.
First: I was no more than a spectator in this game. I was never a co-mod or backup mod and had no knowledge of the setup.
Second: when Walrus posted about his vote being in the wrong place, I became curious and went back to recreate the vote history. The vote at issue was, I think, just completely missed by the mods (it was buried at the end of a paragraph way over at the right side of the screen; however, it had the right boldface and syntax and so was a legitimate vote). I then PM'd the mods as follows:
I took the liberty of looking over the Monster Madness vote history, and it is correct that chairs was lynched earlier this day. (Because Walrus's move from Arch to chairs did not get recorded in the vote counts.)
Specifically, faust's vote on him at 10/25 3:59:43 am was the hammer. The final vote setup at that time was:
Archetype (4): BoxOfDOG, pingpongsam, chairs, ashersky
chairs (7): Archetype, Jorbles, theorel, Walrus, Eevee, xeiron, faust
Eevee (1): Voltaire
Up to you guys how to handle. If I were modding, I would lock the thread now, lynch chairs with the above vote count, and write off everything since faust's hammer vote as a very extended twilight.
I had no further discussion with the mods regarding the game.
Third: there are two different mod decisions at play here: the decision of how to resolve the lynch, and the decision to call the game.
On the decision of resolving the lynch, I support what the mods did. As noted above, it's what I would have done. The fact of the matter is that, at the time faust voted for chairs, there were 7 people whose votes were on chairs. That's a lynch. In my opinion, there is no getting around that. And, if any other action had been taken (such as resetting the vote count and extending the day), the question would be "why did the mods do that instead of just processing the hammer?" The rules need to apply equally regardless of players' alignment.
On the decision to call the game: I am not in a position to evaluate, nor is any player. Only Jimmmmm and his comods could make the call as to whether the game was unsalvageable. ash argued strenuously for that resolution in the Mafia QT - and arguing strenuously is what ash does best :) - but whether you agree with his position or not, it was ultimately the mods' decision. ash had every right to argue for the rules interpretation that he did. And Jimmmmm had every right to call the game upon deciding it was unsalvalgeable.
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For the record, I agree with yuma on this one. It's up to players to check vote counts as they happen. It sucks for scum the day went the way it did, but these things happen. I thought that we derplynched town, and I didn't mind.
I actually disagree, I don't think the players should be expected to count votes for themselves. If this situation arose again, and the mistake was caught BEFORE the flip, I would advocate resetting the game back to the point of the accidental vote and rescinding that vote, and letting things go from there.
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But you can't go back - everyone is reacting with the vote counts they thought existed, and you can't erase that. So I say you have to roll with it (but I completely understanding why that is unsatisfying, but all other options are worse).
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On the decision to call the game: I am not in a position to evaluate, nor is any player. Only Jimmmmm and his comods could make the call as to whether the game was unsalvageable. ash argued strenuously for that resolution in the Mafia QT - and arguing strenuously is what ash does best :) - but whether you agree with his position or not, it was ultimately the mods' decision. ash had every right to argue for the rules interpretation that he did. And Jimmmmm had every right to call the game upon deciding it was unsalvalgeable.
For the record, this was not my call. I argued strongly to allow the game to continue. Mafia decided it was unsalvageable, and there was not terribly much I could do about it.
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But you can't go back - everyone is reacting with the vote counts they thought existed, and you can't erase that. So I say you have to roll with it (but I completely understanding why that is unsatisfying, but all other options are worse).
Well, yeah, you can't rescind the reactions, but you can rescind an accidental lynch if you haven't given the flip yet. I mean, the vote count is whatever the mod says it was, and you can't really go off something else. At least I don't think it's fair to. Just rescinding the lynch, while not ideal, seems like the option to me that causes the least harm.
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For the record, this was not my call. I argued strongly to allow the game to continue. Mafia decided it was unsalvageable, and there was not terribly much I could do about it.
If that's the case, it sounds like mafia resigned.
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On the decision to call the game: I am not in a position to evaluate, nor is any player. Only Jimmmmm and his comods could make the call as to whether the game was unsalvageable. ash argued strenuously for that resolution in the Mafia QT - and arguing strenuously is what ash does best :) - but whether you agree with his position or not, it was ultimately the mods' decision. ash had every right to argue for the rules interpretation that he did. And Jimmmmm had every right to call the game upon deciding it was unsalvalgeable.
For the record, this was not my call. I argued strongly to allow the game to continue. Mafia decided it was unsalvageable, and there was not terribly much I could do about it.
I disagree. The decision was ultimately yours, and as mod, you need to own it.
If a player says they will not play any further in a game, one option is to replace that player. If a replacement cannot be found, you can decide then to call the game. Or, if you think it best, you can decide to call a game without looking for a replacement. But that choice is ultimately yours as mod.
Also, as I read the mafia QT, at the time you decided to call the game ash was saying to get pps's view first.
I'm not saying your decision was right or wrong. I'm saying the decision was yours.
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But you can't go back - everyone is reacting with the vote counts they thought existed, and you can't erase that. So I say you have to roll with it (but I completely understanding why that is unsatisfying, but all other options are worse).
Well, yeah, you can't rescind the reactions, but you can rescind an accidental lynch if you haven't given the flip yet. I mean, the vote count is whatever the mod says it was, and you can't really go off something else. At least I don't think it's fair to. Just rescinding the lynch, while not ideal, seems like the option to me that causes the least harm.
As mentioned above, I disagree with Robz here; but his position is a reasonable one. I would suggest mods think about how they will resolve errors in votecounts going forward and add something to that effect in the rules for their games.
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I'm cursed.
Failed games I've modded or comodded:
NewMafia 3
Shadows over Camelot
This game.
Good games I've modded:
Nm4
Clue which I kinda sorta modded but didn't know players' alignments.
3:1. :'(
Yeah, not too excited about how it turned out. But, what's done is done I suppose. Let's all go sign up for RMM11!
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I take Mafia wanting to end the game as a resignation, yes. If I was in ashersky's position I wouldn't want the game to be called off- just play as normal. It's difficult, sure, but mod errors happen and I think it's a player's responsibility to do the best they can to deal with them. And if they did end up losing, they can blame that on the delayed lynch or whatever. I don't think you should just call off the game.
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From my perspective, having run and played in many, many non-Mafia Forum games here that require significantly more mod work:
A) Players are responsible for knowing the gamestate at all time. It's the job of the mod to try and accurately and timely update the state of the game - however failure to do this does not alter the actual gamestate.
B) If a mistake is noticed prior to any significantly game changing information is revealed, an attempt to reset is usually made. I understand interactions have implications here, and players would wonder why the mod reset things. The simplest, and fairest way to explain it is "While it's your responsibility as players to be aware of the situation, we as mods recognize that you the players often take your queue's from us. We recognize that a mistake was made on our end that caused unintentional events to occur. We are resetting to the last vote count (properly updated), and you may choose how to proceed based on full and complete knowledge."
C) This is not ideal. Ideally mistakes aren't made. We've had plenty of mod mistakes in the past, and players have always striven to point out these mistakes as they see them. We try to be as forgiving as we can, while still recognizing that responsibility ultimately does rest with the players. And that brings me to
D) If the mistake is not caught until after critical information has been revealed, the mistake stands and the game moves forward. The fact is, Chairs was lynched. He received the proper number of votes to send the game to night. If any player is casting a vote, they are responsible for it. The player who cast the derphammer COULD have double checked that his vote wouldn't hammer. All of the information is in the game thread.
The fact is, a vote was cast based off an update given by the mod that was wrong. That doesn't change the actual gamestate, which at that time was a missed L-1 vote on Chairs. Mods do their best, but their only job is to update the gamestate, not set it. I DO think there's room to be forgiving with mistakes where possible. "Undoing" a lynch before a flip is within a mods range of choices (he isn't required to. The players messed up too). It's the one I would've pursued. But after the flip is made it should've stood. It was an accurate representation of what happened, even if what happened was unintentional.
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I was begrudgingly willing to play out the game only because I don't think it okay to stop playing just because I know I've lost. However, I do support Jimmmmm's decision because he effectively presented interference which directly contributed to the game reaching an inevitable conclusion.
As for players being responsible for votecounts; I think it presents some interesting edge cases wherein players can easily manipulate the perceived gamestate if moderator counts are not considered binding. That said, going forward I will personally be wholly reliant on my own counts as mod counts will be considered superflous posts of zero value whatsoever because, essentially, that is exactly what they are if they cannot be considered binding to the gamestate.
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That said, going forward I will personally be wholly reliant on my own counts as mod counts will be considered superflous posts of zero value whatsoever because, essentially, that is exactly what they are if they cannot be considered binding to the gamestate.
People make mistakes! There's no need to treat vote counts as "superfluous".
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One thing to add to the discussion, which it think is good and healthy, is that the mistake was caught before the flip. As Robz and Galz have mention, the reset was possible, but not required. Also as pointed out, chairs was actually lynched.
I think what honestly happened was Jimmmmm started off an old vote count when updating. He had correctly moved walrus's vote the count before. It was an accident we all make as mods, and there's zero blame there.
What I think it did to the game was create the belief among all players that the game state was "x" when it had become "y." How you define those states in personal, I guess, but we all play differently depending on how we view our chances. Chances of winning an argument, chances of being lynch, etc. Our views were skewed accidentally by the error.
In hindsight with plenty of time to think it over, my preference would have been reset back to the last correct vote count or reset all votes and tack on some extra time to the day and let the players resolve it.
I know jimmmmm and all of us want to play our games out, but I think the ending was the only play after the flip was given. I relate it to mod killing Xeiron in MC. It sucked, but had to happen because of the disadvantage in created for scum through breaking a rule. Ending a game sucks worse, but I think for the integrity of the game, it was the right call.
More importantly, I believe no one here is holding this against Jimmmmm, or has a negative view of him as a mod. Jimmmmm is a great and thoughtful mod who created an amazing set-up. We all make vote count errors. All of us. It is not an indicator of how good a mod you are.
Thanks for designing the game, and I personally want an auto-in for whenever and whatever your next game may be.
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That said, going forward I will personally be wholly reliant on my own counts as mod counts will be considered superflous posts of zero value whatsoever because, essentially, that is exactly what they are if they cannot be considered binding to the gamestate.
People make mistakes! There's no need to treat vote counts as "superfluous".
I'm not saying the moderator supplied vote count is without utility. It is an excellent resource for aligning everyone's individual counts. My mistake was definitely in relying upon the moderator count as reality instead of checking to see if it aligned with my own due diligence.
PPE: Nothing is held against Jimmmmm, he did a great job and I think made the best calls in this unfortunate instance.
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Not to gush, but this mechanic is awesome! It's a little rough around the edges, but I love the idea of not knowing whether scum are hurting themselves by helping Town, or Town just got bad luck and hurting themselves. Creates a prisoner's dilemma-ish situation that is really interesting. Some of the Monsters' powers are a bit too strong/too weak, but overall they looked really fun and interesting. I really liked the mystery element of when the power was blocked for the Troll's power. I also think that the bonus for using a certain amount of dice needs to be changed up (No reason to not use 3 dice, but then again maybe it would've came back to bite us). But overall, I really like this mechanic and would happily join (or help refine!) the next game.
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I'd really like to see this game refined a bit and run again, perhaps even becoming a bit of a regular. The dice add a little randomness, but also some fun "Well... did he?" that I enjoy the element of.
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I'd really like to see this game refined a bit and run again, perhaps even becoming a bit of a regular. The dice add a little randomness, but also some fun "Well... did he?" that I enjoy the element of.
I feel like the dice game actually encourages more scum hunting, as opposed to a lot of new mechanics that take away from scum hunting. That's a good thing.
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The dice are great. I was hoping to bus chairs D3 by claiming to have copped him N2 thus excusing my low D2 dice play. Such a fun element.
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I agree that other games with this dice mechanic should be made.
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Well, that was unfortunate.
I think I'm going to have to disagree with Galzria here, especially in a RMM game. There can be unknown roles that impact vote-counts, and vote-counts can be our only interaction with them. When I argued that Jimmmmm had the wrong target value, and it was in fact correct, is a great example of that sort of situation. As players with limited information, it shouldn't be our job to make sure that the mod is correct in all things.
My personal opinion on this in games where backtracking is hard (such as mafia, or really any game with hidden info), is that once information is revealed, it is necessary to treat the gamestate as official even if it's wrong. For mafia this is a bit harder to track (except obviously, lynch flips), but I would say, after some reasonable length of time a vote-count is treated as official. Whatever that is defined as, it should at least include: "When an official vote count is posted, all previous vote counts are considered official game-states, and are treated as error-free regardless of the actual situation".
Ultimately it's going to be up to the mods, and whatever is deemed the "standard" rule can go into the standard rules, and if changed it should be noted. I'm happy whatever the standard is, this is infrequent enough as an actual game-changer. My preference is to give mods all power, because they're the only ones with all info. Players are free to correct mods when they perceive an error, but the safest bet is just to replace your vote/unvote. That should be sufficiently effective in 90% of cases. Mods should be extra careful when lynches are imminent.
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Oh man, that's too bad, I was incredibly satisfied to see someone I lynched actually flip scum for once. I'm not sure you guys had definitely lost, but it did seem Ash, had me fooled, but if he was vigged it wouldn't have mattered. My biggest scum read was Voltaire, and then PPS and theorel as possible scum afters chairs flipped.
I don't totally understand why the game needed to end, but I guess I'll accept it, and maybe read the mafia QT where the discussion of why it happened seems to be.
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While I see your point there Theorel, and vote manipulation is certainly a legitimate concern, I would still say the onus is on the players to go "Hey, is this accurate? I thought Walrus's vote was on Chairs. How did it get moved?". Especially when considering casting a vote that potentially puts the lynch in question back up to L-1.
I mean, I know that as a player I would certainly want to know beforehand. If the mod corrects the mistake, great. If he doesn't, then I'll assume there's some sort of manipulation going on.
I mean, the most important thing here is for the mods to be extra careful, especially around lynches, and I think we agree there. But I think looking at the flip side shows why, in general, the gamestate must be honored: What if a player hits lynch, but the mod misses a vote and doesn't see it? Then due to this error another player goes on to be lynched? (Example would be if two players were at L-1, one scum and one town. Town gets lynched but the mod misses it, then players have a change of heart (or worse, deadline out) and the scum player gets the axe). I don't think the original gamestate can be ignored because the mod misses the vote, unless he proceeds to a point beyond repair (provided a flip already).
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I like to think that my time travel lynch caused a parallel universe to branch off, and the game is continuing merrily in that timeline at least.
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I like to think that my time travel lynch caused a parallel universe to branch off, and the game is continuing merrily in that timeline at least.
And we're both probably tunneling on Voltaire so hard in that universe.
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I like to think that my time travel lynch caused a parallel universe to branch off, and the game is continuing merrily in that timeline at least.
And we're both probably tunneling on Voltaire so hard in that universe.
I think faust killed him actually.
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I like to think that my time travel lynch caused a parallel universe to branch off, and the game is continuing merrily in that timeline at least.
And we're both probably tunneling on Voltaire so hard in that universe.
I think faust killed him actually.
But what about the other timeline where a Terminator was sent back to prevent that??
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I like to think that my time travel lynch caused a parallel universe to branch off, and the game is continuing merrily in that timeline at least.
And we're both probably tunneling on Voltaire so hard in that universe.
I think faust killed him actually.
But what about the other timeline where a Terminator was sent back to prevent that??
Come with me if you want to not get vigged.
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Crap.. I knew this would happen.
I've been working my butt off for the last few days, and I knew it would end by the time I was done..
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Box and Walrus, join RMM11.
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Do it for the children.
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Noooooooooooooooo...I've got Game of Thrones starting tomorrow. I'm gonna try playing just one Mafia game and see how that goes.
Not to say it's not tempting.
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I like to think that my time travel lynch caused a parallel universe to branch off, and the game is continuing merrily in that timeline at least.
I'm enjoying your pithy comments, Walrus!