Dominion Strategy Forum

Dominion => Game Reports => Topic started by: mgallop on August 21, 2012, 12:51:22 am

Title: Trash MORE cards! (or a lesson about watching piles)
Post by: mgallop on August 21, 2012, 12:51:22 am
Just had a pretty interesting Witch Game, opponent opened Witch/Nothing, I opened Remake/Silver, and to play catch up kept buying remakes. Eventually I was able to win -1 to -3 because we'd run Curses, remakes and festivals (I could have won 5 to -3 but buying a province seemed tacky).

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201208/20/game-20120820-214122-92b2e6f3.html
Title: Re: Trash MORE cards! (or a lesson about watching piles)
Post by: axlemn on August 21, 2012, 01:12:53 am
It appears you grabbed the wrong log.  In any case, I think Witch-Copper beats Witch-Nothing.  You get hurt for opening Witch-Nothing every time you draw Witch on turn 4, causing it to miss the next round of play. 

Witch-Nothing, odds for drawing Witch on Turn:
3:5/11 (you are well-off)
4:5/11
5:1/11
Witch-Copper, odds for drawing Witch on Turn:
3 or 4: 5/6
5: 1/6

Edit: Qvist brings up a good point. 
Title: Re: Trash MORE cards! (or a lesson about watching piles)
Post by: mgallop on August 21, 2012, 01:41:47 am
My bad,

this should be the right one.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201208/20/game-20120820-214813-1babb560.html
Also, note I'm pretty sure witch/nothing is more wrong than that since Pawn was available.
Title: Re: Trash MORE cards! (or a lesson about watching piles)
Post by: qmech on August 21, 2012, 03:28:32 am
The simulator prefers Witch/Nothing to Witch/Copper 52% to 45% on a 5/2 start.
Title: Re: Trash MORE cards! (or a lesson about watching piles)
Post by: Qvist on August 21, 2012, 04:39:31 am
It appears you grabbed the wrong log.  In any case, I think Witch-Copper beats Witch-Nothing.  You get hurt for opening Witch-Nothing every time you draw Witch on turn 4, causing it to miss the next round of play. 

Witch-Nothing, odds for drawing Witch on Turn:
3:5/11 (you are well-off
4:5/11
5:1/11
Witch-Copper, odds for drawing Witch on Turn:
3 or 4: 5/6
5: 1/6

Witch-Copper gives you higher t3 and t4 money densities, usually.  If there are decent 4-costs, then it's probably the way to go.  Otherwise it's potentially debatable, but Witch-Copper wins in my mind.

It's right that Witch misses the reshuffle if you draw it on turn 4, but on the other side if you draw it on turn 3 there's a small chance to draw it on turn 4 and higher probability to draw it on turn 5.