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Author Topic: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia - Town Wins!  (Read 336409 times)

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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1550 on: September 21, 2014, 11:38:23 pm »

My current plan:

1. Targ decides if they're going to claim ASAP (I really think they should, as this will affect the following steps)
2. We move enough people to Stark to give them Hand of the King and make their doctor power strongman
3. We massclaim (in an order prepared by me/WW, though I think it should be me)
4. Stark prepares to doctor whomever is appropriate
5. We lynch based off reads/PPS's flip

Point out problems if you see 'em.
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1551 on: September 21, 2014, 11:43:17 pm »

I should point out, of course, that really step 3 needs to be step 6 because we need to make sure any PRs worth protecting aren't in Stark.
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1552 on: September 21, 2014, 11:43:38 pm »

And by that last post I meant Step 2 should be Step 6.
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Hydrad

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1553 on: September 21, 2014, 11:46:28 pm »

That plan looks good to me.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Hydrad

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1554 on: September 21, 2014, 11:50:47 pm »

Well actually I'm slightly against a mass claim. I don't know if anyone has had much to do with PRs yet. I like a later claim better. Also we need to be careful with pr claiming because they can't hit anyone in their house. So scum will be able to figure out if they are safe from vigs or if people can't be doctored. I think claiming in this setup is dangerous. I think people should keep 1 move to all go house less near the end so they can target whoever.

Although you have to be careful of scum taking a house over. Claiming PRs in this setup is really dangerous I think.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

ashersky

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1555 on: September 21, 2014, 11:52:09 pm »

My current plan:

1. Targ decides if they're going to claim ASAP (I really think they should, as this will affect the following steps)
2. We move enough people to Stark to give them Hand of the King and make their doctor power strongman
3. We massclaim (in an order prepared by me/WW, though I think it should be me)
4. Stark prepares to doctor whomever is appropriate
5. We lynch based off reads/PPS's flip

Point out problems if you see 'em.

I'm pretty sure the right move will be moving all players into Stark.  I can explain why when we get to that step.
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1556 on: September 21, 2014, 11:54:38 pm »

I strongly disagree, Hydrad. Also, I can strongman Stark while leaving everyone at least 1 move, even before anyone claims:

Hydrad > Stark

Done. We could move more if we wanted to insure against mafia moving out of Stark (if they're in there) or more into Baratheon to mess with this.
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1557 on: September 21, 2014, 11:55:21 pm »

I'm pretty sure the right move will be moving all players into Stark.  I can explain why when we get to that step.

Fascinating and I'm curious why, because I can't see it right now.
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silverspawn

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1558 on: September 22, 2014, 12:02:01 am »

My current plan:

1. Targ decides if they're going to claim ASAP (I really think they should, as this will affect the following steps)
2. We move enough people to Stark to give them Hand of the King and make their doctor power strongman
3. We massclaim (in an order prepared by me/WW, though I think it should be me)
4. Stark prepares to doctor whomever is appropriate
5. We lynch based off reads/PPS's flip

Point out problems if you see 'em.

I think WW should do the list.

otherwise, no problem.

Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1559 on: September 22, 2014, 12:03:35 am »

Just to be clear, you're trusting a mod-"slip" more than someone who "drove" a scum D1 lynch?
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1560 on: September 22, 2014, 12:18:10 am »

Everyone keep re-reading/doing POE-lists like ash said. In my opinion we're waiting on WW to announce whether Targ is claiming. I strongly think they should.
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Robz888

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1561 on: September 22, 2014, 12:26:55 am »

House Targaryen is currently discussing whether to claim House PR.
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ashersky

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1562 on: September 22, 2014, 12:29:35 am »

House Targaryen is currently discussing whether to claim House PR.

Robz, what is your opinion?  Claim?  No claim?

Do you think the power is pro-town no matter what?  Could be abused by scum?
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Robz888

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1563 on: September 22, 2014, 12:37:58 am »

House Targaryen is currently discussing whether to claim House PR.

Robz, what is your opinion?  Claim?  No claim?

Do you think the power is pro-town no matter what?  Could be abused by scum?

I'm fairly okay with claiming, but won't overrule WW.

I'm not going to say whether it's an explicitly pro-town, or possibly pro-scum, PR until we know for sure that we are claiming.

I will say that I think my House is entirely town right now (it's just me, WW, and XP). And I don't want anyone else to join it.
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EgorK

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1564 on: September 22, 2014, 03:42:45 am »

I saw egorK on here earlier and he has yet to post. Although I still feel very strongly about Hydrad, egorK's insane lurking looks scummy to me as well. And I now see it as more of an intentional tactic, making me feel much scummier about him.

I just read from phone. And I hate phone posting. I'll give my thoughts on current developments when I am caught up on thread again

PPE: quite a bit
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EgorK

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1565 on: September 22, 2014, 04:24:29 am »

I want to clarify somewhat about Baratheon empowered power. Due to the fact empowered condition already can only be preformed by hand of a king it was already strongman anyway. But I believe strongman is usually stoped by 2 shot bp (consuming both shots) or similar. Well, empowered ignition would bypass any such limitations
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EgorK

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1566 on: September 22, 2014, 04:28:59 am »

Hydrad case. Very strong case here, through I hadn't noticed any difference with how Hydrad played as town. I hadn't play with scum Hydrad yet

I would vote when Volt would lift his ban on voting. I find Volt strongest town read here, much more so then WW. I think he should provide any ordering of claims or such stuff

Where is Pac? Is he vla?
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Teproc

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Re: Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1567 on: September 22, 2014, 05:43:22 am »

Volt heavy bussing exists, and the pps wagon didn't look like it was going to happen for a while. I think you're likely to be town, but not an IC.

Arguably WW preventing XP from being lynched did more for the PPS lynch than anything else.

Regardless, as far as your plan goes, the problem with moving people into Stark is that you reduce the amount of targets available for protection obviously. I don't think Strongman is as valuable as a variety of targets. In fact I'd be in favor of having only one obvtown person in Stark if we can afford the moves and depending on the Targ power.
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silverspawn

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1568 on: September 22, 2014, 09:04:11 am »

Just to be clear, you're trusting a mod-"slip" more than someone who "drove" a scum D1 lynch?

I thought we all agreed that he is an IC. you are not an IC, you're just a fairly strong town read for a lot of people. he is like 98%, you're like 90%. not even close.

Voltaire

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Re: Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1569 on: September 22, 2014, 09:36:22 am »

Volt heavy bussing exists, and the pps wagon didn't look like it was going to happen for a while. I think you're likely to be town, but not an IC.

Arguably WW preventing XP from being lynched did more for the PPS lynch than anything else.

Regardless, as far as your plan goes, the problem with moving people into Stark is that you reduce the amount of targets available for protection obviously. I don't think Strongman is as valuable as a variety of targets. In fact I'd be in favor of having only one obvtown person in Stark if we can afford the moves and depending on the Targ power.

I don't disagree with any of this. This is why claim.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1570 on: September 22, 2014, 09:49:03 am »

Volt heavy bussing exists, and the pps wagon didn't look like it was going to happen for a while. I think you're likely to be town, but not an IC.

Arguably WW preventing XP from being lynched did more for the PPS lynch than anything else.

Regardless, as far as your plan goes, the problem with moving people into Stark is that you reduce the amount of targets available for protection obviously. I don't think Strongman is as valuable as a variety of targets. In fact I'd be in favor of having only one obvtown person in Stark if we can afford the moves and depending on the Targ power.

*flex*
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1571 on: September 22, 2014, 10:01:05 am »

Going to go ahead and claim Targ:

Our power is Roleblock. (I know, not that exciting, but you can probably see why it didn't really  help in planning, and keeping scum in the dark can be a good thing.  Plus, chance to block an action and see how people react.)

Our empowered power is, if we choose to Roleblock someone, we may additionally choose to Rolestop them.  Rolestop prevents all night actions except killing from affecting the target.

Our empowerment condition is: We are empowered when the average of our House's weighted votes is greater than or equal to each other house's average weighted votes.  We would have became empowered last night regardless (since everyone has a weighted vote of 2 at the beginning of the night), but no one joining us helps ensure we would stay empowered.  Our average weighted vote is now 3.

Not going to (at this point) claim last night's choices.
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faust

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1572 on: September 22, 2014, 11:02:24 am »

Vote Count 2.1

Hydrad (3): Ichimaru Gin, silverspawn, Witherweaver

Not Voting (8): pacovf, ashersky, Hydrad, Teproc, XerxesPraelor, EgorK, Robz888, Voltaire

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends September 28 at noon.
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1573 on: September 22, 2014, 11:33:08 am »

Current Gamestate (going into N2)

<x> indicates weighted vote in House. (y) indicates how many House moves they have remaining.

<avg=2.5>House Baratheon - arsonist (with strongman ignition as long as they have the most members)
<3>EgorK(2), <3>Hydrad(2), <2>Voltaire(1), <2>silverspawn(1)

<2.67>House Stark - "complete" doctor (permanent, Lannister is extinct)
<3>pacofv(2), <3>Teproc(2), <2>IG(1)

<3>House Targ - roleblocker (rolestopper as long as average weighted votes >= other average weighted votes)
<3>Robz(2), <3>WW(2), <3>XP(2)

Houseless
<0>ashersky(1)
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1574 on: September 22, 2014, 11:42:40 am »

So...as long as we can control the Houses, we can probably Follow the Cop (-ish, if we have one) like ash suggested. And I think the data from PPS's flip is huge, and if we pretended this was a vanilla game we'd still have a great chance of getting a PPS partner today. Combine both, and I think we're in absurdly good shape.

Before a mass-claim and lynch, here's my best framework for tonight:

We move someone out of Baratheon and into Stark. This ensures that Stark will be strongman in its doctoring. If there is scum in Targ, they cannot control the power tonight unless TWO scum are in Targ - the best they can do is prevent it from being used. I am comfortable gambling that Robz and XP are not both scum.

How might scum seek to sabotage this? They could move into Baratheon or Targ from somewhere to mess this up, but then tomorrow opens and they have made themselves obv!scum. They could have a roleblocker of their own, but that doesn't matter because Stark is strongman. If they have their own strongman, then the term begins to lose meaning because how do you even.

Of course, I think we should massclaim, and I think massclaim will provide us with a better plan. It will likely mean ensuring whoever is the PR we want to live is outside of Stark, if they're not already, and potentially coming up with a plan for any other PRs (to prove/use themselves). This of course also has the "scum have to fakeclaim pretty early" advantage for down the road.

All of this doesn't touch on the fact that I have a POE pool of like three people because of how yesterday went down.

WW, massclaim yay/nay? If you say nay we should move on. If you say yay we should start ASAP.
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