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[The_Wine_Merchant]

Okeeee time for schaddddddddddd:

First thing is lots of posts. This should be fun. Although it is actually pretty easy to read given how short his posts are.

People schadd has voted for: pps, IDPTG, eevee, joseph, eevee, dylan,

People that have voted for schadd: pps, Andrew, eevee, Robz

As for his actual posts, I already said there wasn't a lot f scummy content when I did my reread on him Day2. That changes a bit now that we know Andrew was scum. But there wasn't a whole lot from Day1 or Day2.

Day 1:

I remember not loving his vote on Joseph (well frankly everyone's) but in his case I am now seeing that previously schadd gave a null read on Joseph and that he wanted to go check Joseph's scum games. But just a few posts later he votes for Joseph, but doesn't mention that when he actually votes for Joseph. Like it was just convenient. schadd seems to be willing to go and check on previous games, but didn't in that case. So that makes me suspicious, but I kind of feel like I a barking up the wrong tree. This feels like how I felt about Dylan where my points on him ended up being more nitpicky than they were actual scum hunting. So I dont' know. I guess I don't really get a read from this.

Day 2:

says the scum team is bad. Self referencing?

There is a fair amount of hedgy content about Andrew. Playing a good middle ground there.
Promotes the Dylan wagon (can't remember who he was voting prior to this. Eevee maybe? And then joins at L-1, but basically admits that he doesn't have a reason to do so or not do so. This looks opportunistic.

Day 3:
Starts out comparing Andrew vs mcmc to ash vs mcmc as town vs town. But doesn't really give a reason to explain why. Well actually says he will look back and see, but starts out trying to paint Andrew as townier. And starts out with voting PPS, who (you guessed it, Andrew ends up voting for). I see a trend here.

Then, like I noted before schadd says he is going to go over each person over the weekend. In the meantime, Andrew is at L-1 or L-2. schadd's first big "reread" is coincidently on PPS, who he votes putting him at 2 votes with Andrew. I know that schadd responded to this already, but I do see a narrative of schadd feeling like he had to get something going on PPS to stop the momentum on Andrew.

And yes, he does end up giving rereads on almost everyone, so I have to give him credit for that along with an interesting back and forth with Andrew toward the end there. Andrew says to stop wasting his time. Is that hinting that he wanted schadd to hammer him?

Day 4:
Like I said before, the biggest thing I am wary of is that everyone and their pet lizard want to vote schadd. That doesn't mean we are wrong here, but it does make me nervous.

At this point I would rather vote for schadd than Robz. But maybe at this point it doesn't matter and they are both mafia. They make more sense than schadd-Eevee/schadd-PPS/schadd-WW or Robz-Eevee/Robz-PPS/Robz-WW. Out of those other six options I don't know which one would be most likely. Maybe Robz-Eevee or schadd-Eevee. Mostly likely not schadd-PPS, and frankly the WW pairings are just there to be thorough.

I think I need to do an Eevee reread next.

[pingpongsam]

I think your day Day 2 analysis is correct for Robz until I reread but I read that as his strongest scumtell, and by that I mean it is not at all a weak one. What you have there is willingness to vote off wagon since if he and schadd are scum, only town are off wagon. But he realizes as, as I did, that Andrew was in trouble early on so he hedged his bets with a potential bus and signaled to his partners that he would bus to preserve some cred moving forward.

I think he would have bussed too so in some way we are fortunate he didn't or the argument on him would have been far less convincing.

Both Robz and schadd are behaving like resigned scum. Look, the rest of us are rereading and carefully considering where to place our vote hoping for the most likely scum target. These guys waited too late for a bus and now it is impotent unless they have some role power that I'm not even going to bother to contrive that would make them survive with us on their case for the rest of the game. But they can't bring themselves to try to make cases on the rest of us so they are going for the old busaroonie.

I feel really good eevee is not scum. before I go and make my final cases on Robz/schadd I'll do another play by play on TWM. Mostly since D2 he's struck me as town but maybe I can be convinced otherwise. Funny, I have to convince myself because neither of the top candidates seem motivated to do it for me.

[LaLight]

Vote Count 3+1.1

schadd (1): Robz888

Not Voting (5): Witherweaver, pingpongsam, The_Wine_Merchant, Eevee, schadd

With 5+1 alive it takes 3+1 to lynch.
Day 3+1 ends Friday, Apr 8-1 at 13-2 am FT.

[Eevee]

PPS and TWM, which do you both prefer?

I think i'm pretty ready to vote for schadd. Both look very much like resigned scum (I agree with your analysis), but my gut feels stronger about schadd, going back to yesterday.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

At this point I would rather vote for schadd than Robz.

But I still want to reread you. And I don't think anyone has taken a comprehensive look at Andrew's full posts. And probably should reread PPS and WW just to be safe.

[Eevee]

I'm not so worried about everyone seeming to be okay with voting him. Scum has got to worry about the following day as well, and we are seeing just talk, no votes yet.

It's crazy to think where the game could be now had we just lynched andrew day 2.

[Eevee]

At this point I would rather vote for schadd than Robz.

But I still want to reread you. And I don't think anyone has taken a comprehensive look at Andrew's full posts. And probably should reread PPS and WW just to be safe.

I encourage all rereading! The summaries are great for collectively analyzing things.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Looking at Andrew:

People he voted for: WW, schadd, mcmc, Joseph, TWM, mcmc, WW, Dylan, PPS

I think we already went over people who voted for him.

Actually looking at his actual posts:

Day 1: His early suspicion was on schadd, but it doesn't go anywhere. And it quickly turns into him being focused on mcmc for all the game long with an occasional side tangent on WW (makes WW look even more townie than he did before). I don't know if there is much we can take from his vote on Joseph. Obviously it was scum voting for a townie. In relation to others though I guess we can look at it. Andrew was the L-1 vote. So either both partners had to already be voting (Robz, schadd, Eevee) or PPS or only one and Andrew and PPS did a 1-2 punch. Or even more wild, Eevee/Andrew/PPS did a 1-2-3 punch.

Day 2:

Along with mcmc and Robz pushes for an off-wagon lynch. Andrew focuses on me out of the three, but is willing to go along with Dylan when it is available. Initially made me think this was a thought out strategy during the night, but now it looks more like Robz/Andrew just going along with what mcmc was pushing, so less entanglement with Robz than I had initially thought. But mostly he just argues with mcmc and that doesn't give us much to use now in Day 4.

Just noticed that he agreed with schadd on a townread of Robz at a time when there was some agitating about maybe voting Robz to participate more.

Side note: Worth noting that if schadd/Robz are mafia then all three mafia were once again on wagon. This is interesting as I remember Robz specifically saying to look only on wagon Day 3. With mcmc dying off, this would mean that there would be three mafia and two town (WW and myself) compared to three town off wagon. So if this is the case Robz as mafia was being a bit dangerous there to suggest that, and to then not do anything to move the lynch toward me or WW. So I am feeling a bit less confident about the Andrew/schadd/Robz mafia team after this. Hmmm.

Day 3: Andrew is mostly in defensive mode and hitting on PPS. So that obviously make PPS look pretty townie. schadd joins Andrew in this move to vote PPS. He also defends schadd to an extent when PPS, Eevee and Robz (I don't remember this in my reread of Robz) find schadd scummy. And again defends him when I suggest schadd is only voting for PPS because he is the one player that could be a counter wagon to himself. Then there is the interesting back and forth with schadd at the end of the day.

So yeah, I get a bit of a less scum read on Robz and more of a scumread on schadd. Or rather if schadd is scum partners with Andrew, then I am less confident about Robz. I could still see an Andrew-Robz pairing but would be slightly less suspicious of schadd.

[Robz888]

PPS and TWM, which do you both prefer?

I think i'm pretty ready to vote for schadd. Both look very much like resigned scum (I agree with your analysis), but my gut feels stronger about schadd, going back to yesterday.

Can you even imagine me playing resigned scum? Why would I be resigned? I'd be resigned if I was scum and you'd lynched Andrew on Day 1. As it is, scum could definitely still win this game. Indeed, I think scum has at least at least likely a 30% chance of winning this game, and possibly better odds.

[Robz888]

So yeah, I get a bit of a less scum read on Robz and more of a scumread on schadd. Or rather if schadd is scum partners with Andrew, then I am less confident about Robz. I could still see an Andrew-Robz pairing but would be slightly less suspicious of schadd.

If you're scum, TWM, this was a really genius thing to say. Because I previously thought you were setting up my mislynch to follow the correct lynch of schadd, but now it looks like you're not doing that. Which lessens my scum read on you!

[Eevee]

PPS and TWM, which do you both prefer?

I think i'm pretty ready to vote for schadd. Both look very much like resigned scum (I agree with your analysis), but my gut feels stronger about schadd, going back to yesterday.

Can you even imagine me playing resigned scum? Why would I be resigned? I'd be resigned if I was scum and you'd lynched Andrew on Day 1. As it is, scum could definitely still win this game. Indeed, I think scum has at least at least likely a 30% chance of winning this game, and possibly better odds.

"I would never give up like this if I was scum, I must be town!"

[Eevee]

Robz, who are you thinking is the scum?

[Robz888]

PPS and TWM, which do you both prefer?

I think i'm pretty ready to vote for schadd. Both look very much like resigned scum (I agree with your analysis), but my gut feels stronger about schadd, going back to yesterday.

Can you even imagine me playing resigned scum? Why would I be resigned? I'd be resigned if I was scum and you'd lynched Andrew on Day 1. As it is, scum could definitely still win this game. Indeed, I think scum has at least at least likely a 30% chance of winning this game, and possibly better odds.

"I would never give up like this if I was scum, I must be town!"

I know, but that's actually true! I would not, as scum, be giving up, especially in a game where there is no reason to give up!

I'm not town who's giving up either, though. I'm just town who was absent and is now back.

[Robz888]

Robz, who are you thinking is the scum?

Schadd for sure. Beyond that, I'm not sure I should say, unless you really think I should. I don't want to help scum pick night kills.

[schadd]

composing a largepost

[schadd]

okay wait this is actually an important question that i meant to ask earlier


robz, what do you think of breath of the wild?

[pingpongsam]

I feel great about schadd being scum.

I feel pretty good on robz being scum but I could am very interested to look into TWM and lesser so, WW. I can't rightly read WW. I think he would be one to fakeclaim like had to if he is scum.

I am curious if anyone can spell out what potential scum roles could exist in the game at this point with the known info (not treating WWs claim as a known).

I'm fine with lynching schadd now and getting another night flip but only once I know there's not some terribad potential scum role that could ruin us in one more night. I feel like schadd is the goon or weaker role remaining in the scum team.

[Witherweaver]

Isn't this MyLo?

[Eevee]

Yeah. We can afford one no-lynch, but it's better to take it tomorrow as far as i can tell.

[Eevee]

WW, what are you thinking?

[Witherweaver]

PPS sounded like he was saying a mislynch would be okay.

[Witherweaver]

No lynch today is bad as I'll just be killed.

[schadd]

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck i just wiped down my wireless keyboard in another room and lost a massive post

[schadd]

oh my god that was like 2 hours


i mean i'm gonna retype it, don't see this as an excuse to get out of posting something

[pingpongsam]

PPS sounded like he was saying a mislynch would be okay.

No? Wth?

I was saying that I feel super good about lynching schadd but I wanted someone who can parse setups to see what scum roles could still exist. Depending on how bad that could be I'd be willing to vote elsewhere but not gambling on a mislynch simply because I don't think schadd is the big bad wolf if there is one.

I'd lean strong on Robz but still have to reread TWM and WW before I'm voting anyone at all.