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Author Topic: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Game over! Scum won!)  (Read 158622 times)

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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1275 on: March 27, 2017, 11:52:05 am »

So we just need to see if IDP joins the cause or one of scum hammers for cred. Be more interesting to see scum try to make an alternative wagon but the POE is pretty strong today.

I think Robz is most likely to hammer and schadd more likely to try a different case.

So if Robz or schadd hammers they're automatically scum hammering for towncred? Well done! Excellent scumhunting!
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1276 on: March 27, 2017, 11:57:57 am »

Doing a reread of D1 before I start work. I'm working on a theory about the scum team. I'll try to have it by tonight.

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1277 on: March 27, 2017, 11:59:10 am »

So we just need to see if IDP joins the cause or one of scum hammers for cred. Be more interesting to see scum try to make an alternative wagon but the POE is pretty strong today.

I think Robz is most likely to hammer and schadd more likely to try a different case.

So if Robz or schadd hammers they're automatically scum hammering for towncred? Well done! Excellent scumhunting!

FWIW, I doubt scum will hammer you.

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1278 on: March 27, 2017, 02:40:38 pm »

So we just need to see if IDP joins the cause or one of scum hammers for cred. Be more interesting to see scum try to make an alternative wagon but the POE is pretty strong today.

I think Robz is most likely to hammer and schadd more likely to try a different case.

So if Robz or schadd hammers they're automatically scum hammering for towncred? Well done! Excellent scumhunting!

FWIW, I doubt scum will hammer you.

Why wouldn't scum hammer me? You realize that if you mislynch me and scum gets a NK tonight they win right? They just don't want to quickhammer, otherwise you might use your shot and town has another day to lynch scum. That's why it's so scummy how nonchalant pps is about this whole thing. Why put a whole lot of effort into this when town can mislynch for you? Just let town stumble into it by themselves. Iguess I might as well put my vote back on him.

Vote: pps

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Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1279 on: March 27, 2017, 04:34:15 pm »

I know i'm partial to more pleading defenses, but andrew really doesnt sound town to me here. I feel he is expressing frustration at getting lynched, rather than desperation that town might lose because of it.
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Robz888

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1280 on: March 27, 2017, 06:08:05 pm »

Gosh I wish I felt better about the Andrew lynch. Really think schadd or TWM is a better bet. But I hope I'm wrong.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1281 on: March 27, 2017, 06:37:15 pm »

Gosh I wish I felt better about the Andrew lynch. Really think schadd or TWM is a better bet. But I hope I'm wrong.

schadd might be. I certainly am not. But as I read through schadd, I tried to look for things that were scummy and didn't see anything stand out to me. I still haven't really figured out why people like you suspect him.

Frankly, you would easily be my second choice after Andrew.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1282 on: March 27, 2017, 08:00:22 pm »

i'm going through my lynch pool and note the several most important posts to my read of them.


until then:
But as I read through schadd, I tried to look for things that were scummy and didn't see anything stand out to me.
that would make you, like, the first ever out of everyone that has played with me
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1283 on: March 27, 2017, 08:06:53 pm »

until then:
But as I read through schadd, I tried to look for things that were scummy and didn't see anything stand out to me.
that would make you, like, the first ever out of everyone that has played with me

Yay! Unless I am wrong. Then Boo!

But really. I honestly don't understand what you are saying half the time. But that seems pretty consistent with when you were a mod. Seems more like your personality than anything alignment specific.

On the flipside is that I didn't see anything particularly townie from you either. But we are at a stage of the game where lynching for lack of townie content doesn't make sense. It makes more sense to lynch for scummy content.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1284 on: March 27, 2017, 09:22:41 pm »

ok still rereading but i want idptg to say something snooty/authoritarian so we can say "who died and made you governor"
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1285 on: March 27, 2017, 09:51:32 pm »

incidentally, do people prefer quotes or post numbers with links?
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1286 on: March 27, 2017, 09:59:04 pm »

incidentally, do people prefer quotes or post numbers with links?

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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1287 on: March 27, 2017, 10:02:02 pm »

robz2664
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1288 on: March 28, 2017, 12:26:19 am »

Initially, this started as a case against a scum team of {Robz, Andrew, WW} but it turned into "I'm speculating that WW is lying" which doesn't actually help us. Anyway.

The more I think about the massclaim, the less towny I think it was. Granted, this does involve information that wasn't publicly known until after the claim. Anyway, scum knows if there were (5 or 6) Ts, (3 or 4) Ts, or (2 or 1 or 0) Ts. We'd already flipped a 1-Shot Governor so we're guaranteed a roll of VVXXXX (or with Ws turning into Vs). After mcmc's flip, we were guaranteed a roll of VVPXXX (or with Ws). This means that there are at most 3 Ts that have been rolled. This is where it gets into speculation. I propose that scum knew that 3 Ts had been rolled due to their roles. With the two PRs revealed, everyone else had to be VT. This means that there's no one who could counterclaim a role.

This means that, if a massclaim occurs, town doesn't gain any ICs other than finding out who the Governor is; in other words, it doesn't help town. The Governor wasn't going to get lynched anyway and scum doesn't have a Roleblocker. Since no one can claim anything, scum is free to claim any PR that makes sense with the roll. This is where the Bodyguard comes in. Bodyguard is plausible since a roll of VVPPXX (or with Ws) gives the Virgin and Bodyguard and the Virgin had been revealed. A roll of VVPPTT (or with Ws) means that scum now has a Strongman. If the Strongman performs the NK on the Bodyguard target, the target dies and the Bodyguard doesn't. Therefore WW is free to say that he tried to protect mcmc; no one can say he didn't and he wouldn't necessarily be dead if he did.

What does this do for scum? It misleads town into thinking WW is a town PR; it makes him slightly more believable. So, after the claim, the only thing that's changed has been a useless IC (hi) and WW seems to have semi-IC status.

Why this scum team? Early in D3 they were the first three to suggest it. I don't know if the entire team would really pile on that fast, but it gave the illusion of consensus (at least to me) before more than half of the remaining players had voiced an opinion.

Also, I'm pretty sure the NK is going through tonight. Rolecopping mcmc N1 seems reasonable so all they had to do was activate the Switch N2 to kill him and bypass the effect.

A brief rundown of why those three (I'd really hoped to have more):
WW: convenient lie
Robz: all that lurking and he was the first to say there was scum off-wagon D1, which didn't sound like he was stating a theory as much as a fact
Andrew: other people think it and I don't know what to make of all of it. Might hammer. Not sure.


This is a lot of speculation and might be a bit too convoluted to be reasonable. Thoughts? I'm not sure I believe myself anymore.

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1289 on: March 28, 2017, 12:26:37 am »

ok still rereading but i want idptg to say something snooty/authoritarian so we can say "who died and made you governor"

Joseph

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1290 on: March 28, 2017, 08:18:38 am »

I have had similar thoughts about WW's claimand posted them way earlier. You leave out the risk of him claiming if a 1-shot Ninja flips as that would mean too few letters for his PR (maybe he is the 1-shot Ninja so that isnt a risk at all?) And I think we can certainly talk about it now, especially you IDPTG as you are likely going to be the NK, I think it is important to get that stuff down. Butthe thing with WW is that he shouldn't be the lynch of choice today. If he is scum, he has two partners that I think we should try to find first and if he is town it forces mafia to make a NK decision. Do they kill him during the night or someone else?.

And after that we will have more info to make a better conclusion about him and his claim. For example if Andrew is strongman and on a subsequent night you are killed, we can ask why WW didn't protect you ( although I guess there is the switch so nothing is absolutely conclusive)

Or if there is a 2-shot ninja, and that player flips we will have WW confirmed as a PR

but it is still more than we have to go off right now

But I very much agree with your assessment of Robz.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1291 on: March 28, 2017, 11:38:33 am »

pps: a traveller's guide


So I RVS'd using Fibonacci from the player list which none of you geniuses picked up on. Voting had no effect on TWM, he was notably absent, game stalling, so prodded him.

But I must be the bad guy because hey, look, PPS isn't doing all that stuff he usually does to catalyse a game. Never mind that we're he scum he would definitely be pushing the game much like Vote: mcmc is.
whomst was town.


Why are you voting eevee? I thought it was just to see if we could get something going. We got something better over here on mcmc, you should join us.
Is eevee dumb enough to defend his partner? Does scum!eevee defend a wagon deep townie?

Eevee doesn't look like scum today.
part 1 of a series called partnery eevee talk

Vote: Joseph
:((((((((


It's not like I started out of the blue on this game. This is at least 4 games in the making. It's been fleshed out quite a bit more in the previous games so I'm not feeling overly compulsed to make the case all over again. Basically, If I'm in the game then there ought not be willy nilly wagon run-ups because there is a hammer waiting. The first couple of times I tried this I announced intent to hammer at like L-2 or L-3 or even called a player that was obviously about to get runup and stated I'd hammer if he went L-1. In those games it sure seemed a towny enough thing to do. I suppose just doing it unannounced is quite a bit less towny but the meta is the same and the reasons too.
still, still, still, still think this sucks.
 -the endgame of this is that people just claim at l-2 when you're there.
 -sure, you've done fun hammery stuff in previous games. this was different, and not fun. the example i remember is M87 (looked at M89 & M93 and couldn't find anything) wherein pps at one point decided "these wagons are all smoke and mirrors, i'm just hammering the next thing to get to l-1." i think that in general that's a net negative for town, but there's arguments to be made: it was a point of discussion (and it more or less baited me into tunneling the whole game), and it slightly changes the climate of the game to something people aren't used to. this game didn't do either of these things, he didn't give any reason specific to this game, and it had no effect on this game after D1.
 -it absolves pps of having to give any actual read of joseph.


So the good news is we start tomorrow with only one dead townsperson.
didn't you, like, think mcmc was scum? and we were rather close to lynching him?


eevee definitely fought the mcmc wagon. I dunno if eevee partners that hard. I know I sure as hell do not, like ever, never, ever, not even a little bit sometimes. In fact, I'm such an anti partner that my scumpartnertell is the one guy I'm just not talking about or interacting with but still willing to vote. This is so much the case that I really never consider that other players would do such a thing.
The thing is Eevee did a few things I just don't think scum!eevee does. I commented on those things at the time. I may have biased my observations around the idea that mcmc was assumed scum, though.
partnery stuff p2. note that he never just calls eevee town.


I may vote dylan. schadd and I have been way more buddy buddy than eevee and I. Also the conclusions dylan made are that if I am town, he wants to lynch andrew or pps which is basically what I had said about how andrew and pps moved from me to Joseph scummily. He makes no conclusion about what me being town says about eevee. Then he says if I'm scum eevee is certainly scum, which I don't know how he has gotten to. Then he ends with a scummy if we're going to look off wagon twm is the scummy one but doesn't give any reasons whatso ever as to why.

All he is doing is setting up people he wants to lynch with almost no reasons other than mcmc and eevee are buddying eachother.

Also I want to clarify I really think his explaination for why andrew and pps are people he would look to if I were town is indicative of him being scum. After a complete reread it's a really general reasoning that is setting up where he can pivot when I flip town. He's not even thinking about what eevee flipping town would mean which is wierd since it's an eevee/me interaction not just me. It's just very "I've made one read I'm basing all my other reads on so I can change them" I do this as scum lots.

Agree with all this.
up until this point it's kind of ambiguous whether he scumreads mcmc (though later he hard townreads mcmc and says that he had been all of d2). he will later defend the shit out of dylan post-hammer and claim the wagon was scum driven:
Congratulations, scum. I'll have to figure out where they are but nice job getting a mislynch when one of your own was on the block. Considering the hour it's like they got back to back nights.

Robz and mcmc looks scummiest to me atm but a reread is definitely in order.


I'm not convinced Schadd is town, but I don't think he's the right lynch for today.

I'm down to lynch any of schadd, Andrew, and Robz.
and here we are, at mylo (or close to it), where he sheeps ww's team call, with little unhedged reason, no sense of priority, in spite of earlier saying robz and i don't look like partners. no townreads issued on the other folks in this game.


incidentally, when i was looking at his other games to see how much the hammer thing was nonsense, i think i found a good towntell for him: when he's town, he's really engaged, and i can sense that he's trying to figure things out. this game has felt much more like he's rhetorically stumbling into and out of reads and placing himself at different parts of arguments.


he's my ideal lynch today, vote: pps. i have a bit more to say about the uh other people (i think eevee reciprocates a lot of the hedgy partnery stuff) but i've been at this for a while.


i would like to hear more from everyone about whomst'd they think is town and stuff. my read on robz predicated on the idea that he would, like, deliver, and at some point be able to have better-reasoned reads to share, but that hasn't happened all that much (he was content to drop "schadd or twm" and peace out, which is definitely the scummier side of lurking. i still think that he's town, especially after the re-read, but c'mon)
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1292 on: March 28, 2017, 06:43:42 pm »

Main thing I don't like from the above^. Is it just coincidence that the person that schadd ends up voting here is the other person with a vote on them?

schadd you said you had reads on everyone else, but why is the only one you have posted (and voted, obviously) on pps the one other guy with a vote on him?
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1293 on: March 28, 2017, 07:29:24 pm »

Gosh I wish I felt better about the Andrew lynch. Really think schadd or TWM is a better bet. But I hope I'm wrong.

I'm interested in why Robz hasn't backed any of this up with a vote. Especially since we have less than 24 hours until the deadline.

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1294 on: March 28, 2017, 07:48:32 pm »

I'mma gonna go ahead and request some prods:

Please prod Robz. Please prod Eevee. Please prod PPS. Please prod WW. Please prod Andrew

To be fair each of these players have posted within the last 48 hours. And I have certainly gone longer without posting, but we are at a point where not posting for 24 just isn't a good idea.

Only schadd, myself and IDPTG have posted in the last 24 hours.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1295 on: March 28, 2017, 07:54:18 pm »

Vote Count 3.3

AndrewisFTTW (3+1): Witherweaver, pingpongsam, The_Wine_Merchant, Eevee


Not Voting (3+1): IDontPlayThisGame, Robz888, schadd, AndrewisFTTW

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 3 ends Wednesday, Mar 21+8 at 11 am FT.


I'm trying to understand this.

If Andrew is town and not every scum is on the wagon already, then either there won't be a NK tonight or scum is certain that I'll use my shot to save Andrew. I don't see a reason for why they wouldn't hammer (especially now that I don't think anyone would see it as a quickhammer) to get it to N3 when the NK is guaranteed (either Strongman or no Bodyguard).

If Andrew is town and every scum is on wagon, then we probably shouldn't lynch him and we've found the scum team (+1 townie).

If Andrew is scum, then either scum is bussing or schadd and Robz are his partners and all of town is on wagon. If there's going to be a NK tonight, I don't see why scum would waste a day bussing. My understanding of bussing is that you do it because you stand to gain much more if it gives you towncred than you would lose if it doesn't, not just because you can. Considering this would be LyLo if there's a NK, I don't see how it would help scum.

Therefore, I think we can assume there is no NK tonight or we found the scum team or both.

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1296 on: March 28, 2017, 08:03:12 pm »

Therefore, I think we can assume there is no NK tonight or we found the scum team or both.

But what do we do with that assumption? Is it actionable?
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1297 on: March 28, 2017, 08:12:32 pm »

I've been out of town to meet family for a 1 year old birthday party. Generally my vacations are when I do the most mafia but this particular one actually should have been posted in the VLA thread in retrospect.

I'm going to be covered up at work Wednesday and Thursday. If we flip Andrew and he is scum then I am good to get back in the game in a big way about Friday. If we flip me or if Andrew is town we're probably toast anyhow.
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1298 on: March 28, 2017, 08:22:11 pm »

I'm here. I don't have much to say that I haven't said already other than I'm glad someone concurs with my scum read on pps. TWM I don't think your suggestion that schadd is only voting for pps because he's the only other person with a vote on him holds any water. I'm surprised more people don't find him scummy. I know you have your reasons for voting me but I think pps and maybe a couple others are only on my wagon today because I wasn't lynched yesterday, which I already said. See? I'm repeating myself!

The question for IDP is what do you think? Do you really think I'm scum?
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1299 on: March 28, 2017, 08:26:58 pm »

TWM I don't think your suggestion that schadd is only voting for pps because he's the only other person with a vote on him holds any water.

If schadd had produced his reads on everyone like he said he would, I would agree. Then I would have more confidence that he did a full read and organically came to the conclusion of pps being scummy. But when he dropped a read of pps in isolation and also votes for him, I have to wonder (maybe incorrectly) if it was produced with a purpose: to get an alternate wagon going on pps.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)
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