yes Village-Moat clearly loses to Moat-BM.
also Village-Smithy loses to Smithy-BM.
even Village-Hunting Grounds loses to Hunting Grounds-BM.
If you add Woodcutter, the last one is the only one that changes. But most kingdoms provide more then just a woodcutter.
I feel like poking a bee hive right now.
Is this supported by simulation or some other kind of evidence, or is this just based on one of the best Dominion guts in the world?
Well, I know the first two are indeed trivially supported by simulation, from ages and ages ago. I assume that Hunting Grounds case is also, uh, not close. The only thing I'm not easily sure of is that Hunting Grounds + Village + Woodcutter beats HG/BM. I would expect that's reasonably close, but I can easily believe Stef when he makes his claim.
Most kingdoms giving more than woodcutter is something I would assume he hasn't actually got 'hard evidence' for, but on the other hand, it's almost trivially correct, don't you think?