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Author Topic: NM11: anagrams (over and done) (eOven! dan? ron?)  (Read 61689 times)

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Swowl

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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's day 1!) (i... ya, 1 STD)
« Reply #325 on: December 10, 2017, 10:33:54 pm »

With  numbers fixed:

Witherweaver (3): Xxraptorslayer96, Skumpy, DatSwan
Seprix (3): Witherweaver, Awaclus, SirClemens
stevanzzo (1): Seprix
Awaclus (1): faust

not voting (1): stevanzzo

We need to consider this. WW went back and corrected his vote count and still got the fact that Awaclus was NOT on Seprix incorrect. For sure it could be a mistake, but also it doesn't have to be. Just saying.

I missed Awaclus' vote because I keep him on ignore and have to click "show" to see his posts. I looked back for all the votes scanning for bold font. I missed that he posted in there and didn't click in it to see it.


This is the towniest thing anyone has ever said ever.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #326 on: December 10, 2017, 10:54:04 pm »

Sorry about the confusion. I was actually on my way in that morning. Didn't realize he was asking "will stevanzzo be here for the deadline?" thought he was asking "anyone seen stevanzzo?" Deadlines are during my work day from the look of it, probably won't be there for any of them, if a vote is needed beforehand I'd need to know beforehand.

I posted that then ran to work for the day. I work leave for work around 9-9:20 and don't get back till 6:30 or so pm PST.

Also going to vote: DatSwan.

Because he just said "Seprix is most likely town" then followed up by voting for him.

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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #327 on: December 10, 2017, 10:55:52 pm »

OK here is what I got:

First and Foremost: Everyone should go back and review Faust as a known Town player.

And then here is this:

1) Prior to the final hour or so the votes ACTUALLY read:
Scenario 1: The miscount was on purpose and WW is Skum.
Why do it? - Protection obviously.
What does it mean? - This means that there is either 0 or 1 skum on WW and WW is skum and also that Seprix is most likely town I suppose. Not 100% on that last bit, if you are gonna mastermind a play like this you are absolutely able to do it as a bus pass off.
...
All that being said.. Mistakes do happen. Right now I think it has to be up between the two of them.. So I am gonna strong push for Vote: Seprix
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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #328 on: December 11, 2017, 01:29:38 am »

Sorry about the confusion. I was actually on my way in that morning. Didn't realize he was asking "will stevanzzo be here for the deadline?" thought he was asking "anyone seen stevanzzo?" Deadlines are during my work day from the look of it, probably won't be there for any of them, if a vote is needed beforehand I'd need to know beforehand.

I posted that then ran to work for the day. I work leave for work around 9-9:20 and don't get back till 6:30 or so pm PST.

Also going to vote: DatSwan.

Because he just said "Seprix is most likely town" then followed up by voting for him.

first: if you are town you need to re read my last post
second: yes, you should probably vote prior to your start of day if you are unavailable at deadline. happens to all, but at least that way your voice is heard.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #329 on: December 11, 2017, 01:53:09 am »

Standard Set up Post:
Faust was a Cop. Only line ups with cop were:

1) Skum has Role Blocker. We had a Cop,  and either a Neo or a Doctor is still with us. Cop is now dead (so if you are a Neo or a Doc keep it to yourself, but note there is a Skum Role Blocker).

2) Skum has Role Cop = We had a Cop, and a Tracker is still with us. Cop is now dead (so if you are a Tracker it to yourself, but note there is a Skum Role Cop).

3) Skum has nothing = We had a Cop. No other Town roles. No other Skum Roles.


Since we were unfortunate to only lose a PR going into D2 we have left the ultimate door open for fake claims. Skum could claim anything with their knowledge at this point and we would not be able to point it out.
Reasoning:
- If we have Column 1 claim (Neo or Doc), we don't know if they are lying and we assuming one way or another their may be a skum RB.
- If we have Column 2 claim (tracker), we don't if they are lying and we assuming one way or another there may be a skum RC.
- If we have Column 3 claim... I mean I guess we learn that there is nothing, but that doesn't seem valuable in comparison.


There should be no claims at this point imo. All claims only have a skummy side to them. Town really gets nothing out of it, and skum learns a PR or gains a chance to fake claim. If someone finds a fault in this logic speak up now please.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #330 on: December 11, 2017, 01:55:18 am »

I am also correcting the obvious flaw in my aforementioned WW/Seprix team logic. I do believe that Seprix is a good vote, but if he is skum, it would be unlikely that WW is also skum. I fell ill to my own "scenario" situation.

No OMGUS. Seprix is my pick... but it also doesn't paint a good light on Stev.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #331 on: December 11, 2017, 02:21:17 am »

I think the fact that seprix would not put WW at L-1 while he himself was the alternative lynch. If you know you are Town you narrow it down right? Even if he was 99.99998889% sure WW Town, you still go for it as defense if you are 100% sure you are Town...

Does that make sense?

I was at work the entire time. I'm probably going to be working at every deadline to be honest. Joining a Mafia game may have been a bad idea.

WW miscounted on purpose. He wanted to see who was going to pseudohammer and make a hard read on it. And so I am going to go Town read here for WW. DatSwan is making interesting arguments, he is safe for now.

Vote: Awaclus for being deliberately deceptive. He knew he wasn't voting for me with WW's post, and deliberately faked it so Town got a no lynch D1. That is exactly the play he would make, and realizing it magically right as the deadline happens? Shady.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #332 on: December 11, 2017, 03:30:01 am »

Currently stuDYING. I will post all thoughts after exam tomorrow.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #333 on: December 11, 2017, 04:22:09 am »

Vote: Awaclus for being deliberately deceptive. He knew he wasn't voting for me with WW's post, and deliberately faked it so Town got a no lynch D1. That is exactly the play he would make, and realizing it magically right as the deadline happens? Shady.

Yeah, sure, I deliberately ended up on WW's ignore list so that he wouldn't notice my vote on faust. Makes complete sense, that must be exactly what happened.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #334 on: December 11, 2017, 11:23:08 am »

I think the fact that seprix would not put WW at L-1 while he himself was the alternative lynch. If you know you are Town you narrow it down right? Even if he was 99.99998889% sure WW Town, you still go for it as defense if you are 100% sure you are Town...

Does that make sense?

I was at work the entire time.

I think Swan is wondering why you didn’t vote WW in this post:

I'm not sure why my wagon is a thing.
You still like your vote?

I mean yeah but it's clearly not happening so I'll have to find another good candidate.

I see Swan’s reasoning. Vote: Seprix
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #335 on: December 11, 2017, 11:27:18 am »

note that you are in fact not allowed to post until i formally open the thread with the start-of-day post

Sorry, but didn’t I post after you made that post? There is no last edited timestamp at your opening post, so my post was posted 47 secconds after the day started. The PPE there signals that I ignore the nightkill and it’s implications in that post.

oh yeah you didn't do anything wrong. just the fact that you ppe'd me made it seem like you were planning to post regardless of whether i unlocked
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 12:27:10 pm by schadd »
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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #336 on: December 11, 2017, 03:33:16 pm »

Going to be away for a while.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #337 on: December 11, 2017, 10:35:49 pm »

I think the fact that seprix would not put WW at L-1 while he himself was the alternative lynch. If you know you are Town you narrow it down right? Even if he was 99.99998889% sure WW Town, you still go for it as defense if you are 100% sure you are Town...

Does that make sense?

I was at work the entire time.

I think Swan is wondering why you didn’t vote WW in this post:

I'm not sure why my wagon is a thing.
You still like your vote?

I mean yeah but it's clearly not happening so I'll have to find another good candidate.

I see Swan’s reasoning. Vote: Seprix

Because I didn't think WW was scum and I still don't? I'm not going to lynch a guy I think is town.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #338 on: December 11, 2017, 10:47:14 pm »

Vote count 2.1

Seprix (2): Awaclus, SirClemens
DatSwan (1):stevanzzo
Awaclus (1): Seprix

not voting (4) : DatSwan, Xxraptorslayer96, Skumpy, Witherweaver

with 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. day 2 sunday, december 17th at 15:30 forum time. thread unlocked

mod notes
mod quotes
note that you are in fact not allowed to post until i formally open the thread with the start-of-day post

Sorry, but didn’t I post after you made that post? There is no last edited timestamp at your opening post, so my post was posted 47 secconds after the day started. The PPE there signals that I ignore the nightkill and it’s implications in that post.

oh yeah you didn't do anything wrong. just the fact that you ppe'd me made it seem like you were planning to post regardless of whether i unlocked
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 01:27:39 am by schadd »
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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #339 on: December 12, 2017, 12:22:04 am »

Schadd- vote check. I don’t see WW voting for anyone since start of day?

whops
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 01:26:31 am by schadd »
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #340 on: December 12, 2017, 12:27:46 am »

Vote: Awaclus for being deliberately deceptive. He knew he wasn't voting for me with WW's post, and deliberately faked it so Town got a no lynch D1. That is exactly the play he would make, and realizing it magically right as the deadline happens? Shady.

Yeah, sure, I deliberately ended up on WW's ignore list so that he wouldn't notice my vote on faust. Makes complete sense, that must be exactly what happened.

.. wasn’t the point he was making. The vc could of been altered for any number of reasons... purpose, mistake, inconveniently  timed bear attack... whatever. Your actions based off of the constant are what he is questioning here.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #341 on: December 12, 2017, 01:11:32 am »

Sorry all, I have a 2000 word paper on something I dont know thats due tomorrow, so no comtent from me until then. Something something about me not lynching faust and something something about town PRs always dying N1 in my games.

Weren't you claiming Faust was scum?

And wasn't he the one that wanted to lynch you?

I suppose he's the one. You could also argue there were 5, including yourself. It took one game with him for me to realize he was someone I was going to accuse a lot, probably incorrectly most of the time. Yet through 3 games, I still haven't actually lynched him yet, somehow. I feel like what you're trying to do is guilt me into feeling stupid so that I lose confidence in my vote for you. It's half-working because faust really wasn't at the top of my list by the end of yesterday, but I'm still going to temporarily move everyone back to null because it was an interesting D1, and I'm not going to act rashly here. 

As for him getting killed, either it's because he's a huge threat who catches onto the scheming quickly (well, maybe not always, from what I've seen) or because his reads were good. I know one was wrong (Skumpster), so that's going to make me reexamine SC. In my quick D1 readthrough, I'm not as sold on his townliness as I once was.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #342 on: December 12, 2017, 02:09:07 am »

Vote: Awaclus for being deliberately deceptive. He knew he wasn't voting for me with WW's post, and deliberately faked it so Town got a no lynch D1. That is exactly the play he would make, and realizing it magically right as the deadline happens? Shady.

Yeah, sure, I deliberately ended up on WW's ignore list so that he wouldn't notice my vote on faust. Makes complete sense, that must be exactly what happened.

.. wasn’t the point he was making. The vc could of been altered for any number of reasons... purpose, mistake, inconveniently  timed bear attack... whatever. Your actions based off of the constant are what he is questioning here.

What actions? I didn't fake voting for Seprix. I was as open about voting for faust as one can reasonably be expected.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #343 on: December 12, 2017, 02:38:15 am »

I'm going to give WW the benefit of the doubt and say the votecount was a mistake, I can buy the explanation regardless of alignment. If it's intentional scum play to make Seprix look like an equal target, then it runs a big risk of anybody going back to look like a page before and see it's wrong. How nobody caught it, I don't know.

OK here is what I got:

First and Foremost: Everyone should go back and review Faust as a known Town player.

WW(3): Swan, Raptor, Skumpy
Seprix(3) WW, SC, Awaclus
Stev(1): Seprix
Awaclus(1): Faust
NoVote(1): Stev


Scenario 2: The miscount was an accident. Which, for new people, does actually happen. Like even MODS do it.
If we are living in a world where people read the vote count that is a 3-3 wagon and think it is true, a few things stand out to me:

1) Swan - I wasn't on. I said I would be and I was wrong, you can go and check. Sorry.
2) Faust and Awaclus - Faust was town so whatever. Does not mean Awaclus is skum, as he can't know for sure and tbh Awaclus kind of just sticks with his vote no matter what.
---then the fun stuff---
3) Stev - He was here. like he even posts to point out that he is in fact present. But still no vote. That means either Stev is town and new and yadda yadda whatever... or Stev is skum and both WW and Seprix are probably skum. Latter probably more unlikely but worth pointing out.
4) Skumpy and XXR - Both switch pretty immediately from WW onto Seprix. I think that this most likely suggests that at least one  of WW/Skumpy/XXR are skum. Personally I think it likely that more than one are skum, but lets just say for now 1/3 there for sure imo.
5) Seprix - Here is the tie together. Why in the hell would Sperix, who was present and posting while the wagon was 3-2 (told to be 3-3)... why would he NOT put WW at L-1? An answer from Seprix would be rad here... until I get that my assumption, and I think it has a lot of merit, is that a Skum team of WW/Seprix makes a ton of sense


All that being said.. Mistakes do happen. Right now I think it has to be up between the two of them.. So I am gonna strong push for Vote: Seprix

3) I don't get it: HOW THE HELL DO YOU GET THE SETUP WRONG D2, ESPECIALLY WHEN SOMEBODY JUST DID IT THE DAY BEFORE? Like, did you just completely miss the Raptor misread yesterday? You have to know there's only 2 scum if you're town, you even went back and looked at the setup chart D1 to crank possibilities. But you also wouldn't try something this bold again if you're scum, which is why it's a great reason to.

4) I don't follow. With 3-3 (or so we thought) before the lynch, somebody's going to have to flip to make the lynch happen. Raptor does with less than 10 minutes left. I follow right after without having any time to look through anything, all I see is L-1. You'd have done the same thing as me. As for Raptor, I don't consider the flip scummy or towny, though it's interesting that it's a total turnaround from what he did D2 in 110. I do consider it as a sign to discount the Raptor/WW team (and Skumpy/WW too, while you're at it  :D) because I can't imagine scum leaving a teammate so close to a day 1 lynch for no good reason. If the game was like 10-3, then maybe. But to go into N2 1 vs 7 and having to deal with a Cop/Jailkeeper/Tracker, or whatever there is, that's just flat out unwinnable. For similar reasons, I'd lean away from a Raptor/Seprix team, though if it's known you're around and you don't flip, that's a bad look. But still much safer than lynching a teammate.

5) I don't know why Seprix wouldn't flip. But if's a team, then why would WW leave a vote camped on Seprix for so long, when there were plenty of other wagons to choose from? He even acknowledged he could switch to a lot of other people. So no...I think a WW/Seprix team makes no sense, actually.  8) (And after reading ahead, I see DatSwan corrrected himself. OK then)

At the claims - obviously we're not claiming today, but if it's Column A or B, then scum can't fakeclaim because the town PR would know they're lying, and we'd get down to a lynchpool of 2. Not a terrible idea for scum, I guess, but it's moot anyways.

I think the fact that seprix would not put WW at L-1 while he himself was the alternative lynch. If you know you are Town you narrow it down right? Even if he was 99.99998889% sure WW Town, you still go for it as defense if you are 100% sure you are Town...

Does that make sense?

I was at work the entire time. I'm probably going to be working at every deadline to be honest. Joining a Mafia game may have been a bad idea.

WW miscounted on purpose. He wanted to see who was going to pseudohammer and make a hard read on it. And so I am going to go Town read here for WW. DatSwan is making interesting arguments, he is safe for now.

Vote: Awaclus for being deliberately deceptive. He knew he wasn't voting for me with WW's post, and deliberately faked it so Town got a no lynch D1. That is exactly the play he would make, and realizing it magically right as the deadline happens? Shady.

Haven't you commentated matches at like 4 in the morning? Like, you're usually around, and it's not hard to quickly check in and make a post. I can relate to it being stupid to join mafia though.

The problem with assuming the miscount was intentional is that there's no way that nobody's going to catch him. Yet somehow, nobody caught him.

The Awaclus novote is a great play if he's trying to protect a teammate. That would be you. If he's scum, he makes sure you're dead.

Currently stuDYING. I will post all thoughts after exam tomorrow.
I thought you were another 30-year-old swim coach. Are you not? (I love prying into people's affairs!)


I think the fact that seprix would not put WW at L-1 while he himself was the alternative lynch. If you know you are Town you narrow it down right? Even if he was 99.99998889% sure WW Town, you still go for it as defense if you are 100% sure you are Town...

Does that make sense?

I was at work the entire time.

I think Swan is wondering why you didn’t vote WW in this post:

I'm not sure why my wagon is a thing.
You still like your vote?

I mean yeah but it's clearly not happening so I'll have to find another good candidate.

I see Swan’s reasoning. Vote: Seprix

Because I didn't think WW was scum and I still don't? I'm not going to lynch a guy I think is town.

Well this is in direct opposition to what you said yesterday. So much for D1s are impossible to read.

I was going to vote SirClemens. Then I was going to vote DatSwan. Then I was going to vote Seprix. Now I have no idea. I think there's a lot of good juicy tidbits we got from the D1 vote. Which I will collect later. There is something seriously wrong if Awaclus is making the most sense here. And now I want to vote Awaclus.

...I'll figure it out.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #344 on: December 12, 2017, 05:11:39 am »

Vote: stevanzzo

Need second opinions about my Witherweaver theory.

Could you expand on this? What exactly do you mean by WW 'buddying' you? That he read you as town?
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #345 on: December 12, 2017, 05:38:56 am »

Vote: stevanzzo

Need second opinions about my Witherweaver theory.

If you need second opinions about your Witherweaver theory, vote for Witherweaver until he explains why it's wrong. Better yet, do that before you have told him what that theory is, but unfortunately it's already too late for that.
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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's day 1!) (i... ya, 1 STD)
« Reply #346 on: December 12, 2017, 10:33:55 am »

Vote: stevanzzo

Need second opinions about my Witherweaver theory.

Could you expand on this? What exactly do you mean by WW 'buddying' you? That he read you as town?

I think the answer is just sheep Faust. And if that doesn't work, then lynch Faust.

He is implicitly reinforcing my older decision, making me feel good without doing something obvious that could be brushed off as a joke. That would lead me to get a better feeling when reading his posts, which I had for the rest of day 1.

Reply 177, 241, 244, 245, 256 all have him read me correctly as town, which is easier if someone is aware that this is my alignment. faust is also a good player, but had my alignment wrong, unlike WW.
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Too bad Dominion doesn't have Gunpowder.

SirClemens

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Re: NM11: anagrams (it's night 1) (1 tight sin)
« Reply #347 on: December 12, 2017, 10:43:22 am »

Vote: stevanzzo

Need second opinions about my Witherweaver theory.

If you need second opinions about your Witherweaver theory, vote for Witherweaver until he explains why it's wrong. Better yet, do that before you have told him what that theory is, but unfortunately it's already too late for that.

I’ll try to remember this next time. Vote: Witherweaver
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Too bad Dominion doesn't have Gunpowder.

Xxraptorslayer96

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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #348 on: December 12, 2017, 11:13:06 am »

I have to go reread, mostly Faust’s interacts from D1.

I still think I like the WW or Stevan vote. People like the Seprix vote. But maybe Faust was on to something voting Skumpy.


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Xxraptorslayer96

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Re: NM11: anagrams (day 2 now) (2 dawn, yo)
« Reply #349 on: December 12, 2017, 11:21:06 am »

Currently stuDYING. I will post all thoughts after exam tomorrow.
I thought you were another 30-year-old swim coach. Are you not? (I love prying into people's affairs)

I am in fact a Swim Coach, and if you ask the children I teach how out I am, they would probably guess between 30yo and 60yo.
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