OK, I am doing some stuff, and to avoid confusion have written this up so that I can reference it for the points I am going to make.
The below is currently for D1 only. It starts at the height of the Pasta wagon, and then proceeds to follow all vote moves until end of Day 1. It is color coded (I left myself grey and put ADK in as Green, to help clarity for others reading it).
This is the height of the Pasta Wagon on Day 1:
Joseph2302 (1): scolapasta
A Drowned Kernel (2): SpaceAnemone, yuma
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
scolapasta (6): Dylan32, ADrownedKernel, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas, Joseph
Not Voting (2): WestCoastDidds, DatSwan
Fairly immediately after the Joseph unvote thing...Space moves from ADK to MM, then ADK, WCD go to Joseph (Yuma does as well, then a little later goes to Mail Mi). That brings us here to VC 1.2.2:
Joseph2302 (3): scolapasta, A Drowned Kernel, WestCoastDidds
mail-mi (3): 2.71828....., SpaceAnemone, yuma
scolapasta (4): Dylan32, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas
Not Voting (2): DatSwan, Joseph2302
So, I find these two wagon "snap shots" important (as well as the third one below) in trying to figure out; a) why skum chose to kill who they did, b) analyze Joseph's movements, c) analyze other's movements.
a) I think with the way these two wagons ran up (pasta and joseph), followed by the skum flip of Joseph, that skum chose Pasta as the NK because like... how were they gonna sell skum!pasta there after Joseph flipped red? I mean, still dunno what to say about ADK not being the choice... but I also am continuing to treat them as IC so I don't care rn.
b) Why did he unvote? That is just what I cannot get my head around. Like up unto that point (when they unvoted) they had not like... done anything skummy. OK - they put pasta at L1, but like even if a hammer came down... its not the worst. I just do not get why they unvoted. However, as I stated yesterday, regardless of "where he went", I think that he chose to leave because he realized skum was saturated on the Pasta wagon. Now that Dylan has flipped Town, I find it even easier to believe that is the case because that would put all the people with suspicious placement on the wagon as the only one's we do not know the alignment of.
c) Other Player's Movements:
- Space votes MM
- ADK, WCD, Yuma are the first to move to Joseph after they unvote. ADK town, and I assign town points to the other two for being so early on the move.
- After they move, we get to the above posted Vote Count 1.2.2.. From there we have some tip toeing around either of these two player wagons for a bit. The moves were:
*Swowl votes ADK, from No Vote
Pasta votes Calam, from Joseph
Space votes E!, from MM
**LaLight votes Joseph, from Pasta
Dylan votes LaLight, from Pasta
***WCD votes Yuma, from Joseph
**Yuma votes Joseph, from MailMi
LL does a post back to back switch, but ends up staying on Joseph
Dylan unvotes from LaLight
That brings us to VC 1.5:
Joseph2302 (3): A Drowned Kernel, yuma, LaLight
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Calamitas
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
yuma (1): WestCoastDidds
Not Voting (2): Joseph2302, Dylan32
So what I am looking for here in this last part:
* UNK players moving to Town from UNK
** UNK players moving to Skum
*** UNK players moving off of Skum
(Any move that starts with Green Text, is a conf!Town player moving... which while good info, when isolated is not important).
So far that is;
* Swan voting for ADK
** LaLight and Yuma both go to Joseph (and LL was off of Town!Scola)
*** WCD leaves Joseph, for UNK!Yuma
At this point, there is 48 hours until DL. We go a full 24 hours with a decent amount of talk, but no votes moving. That streak is then broken with 24 hours left to DL...
**WCD votes Joseph, from Yuma
Joseph votes E!, from No Vote
E! votes WCD, from MailMi (first completely UNK move since VC 1.4)
Dylan votes WCD, from No Vote
Dylan votes Pasta, from WCD
***Yuma votes WCD, from Joseph
Joseph votes WCD, from E!
K so that brings us to 7 hours to DL and VC 1.7:
Joseph2302 (4): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Dylan32
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (3): 2.71828....., yuma, Joseph2302
There we had;
** WCD voting Joseph
*** Yuma leaving Joseph
Then there are like 3 back to back switches, but ends up starting with...
Pasta votes Joseph, from Calam
Swowl votes Pasta, from ADK
That takes us here:
Joseph2302 (5): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scola
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (3): 2.71828....., yuma, Joseph2302
*** Yuma votes Joseph, from WCD
*** E! hammers Joseph, from WCD
Final Day 1 VC:
Joseph2302 (5): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scola, Yuma, 2.71828..
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302
So I started typing all of this up just for myself to look into MM's point I responded to about last night's kill selection... then kind of decided it would be good to look further into it. A couple things immediately jump out, though I have other points I want to dive into as well:
MM's point about last night's NK choice is, imo, actually a fairly solid point. Looking at the second to last wagon, there are 3 UNK!Players on the wagon, and 4 UNK!Players off the wagon. By the last wagon, 2 votes later, there are 5 UNK!Players on the wagon and 2 UNK!Players off the wagon. The choice to kill Space is super strange - I believe they had been pretty strongly advocating that they did not think that there were 2 skum players on the wagon at the end, so there had to be at least 1 off in their mind. With Dylan flipping Town, skum then chose to kill Space. That would be a super weird play if MM was skum here. Even if they push me... bc then I flip green and then they kind of got Skum!MM on the outs there. Which is inherently why I do not think MM is skum.
I think it is more likely that there are actually two skum that were on the Joseph wagon. I have a lot of thoughts I need to parse out regarding the grouping of [LL, WCD, Calam] vs [Yuma, E!], but this took wayyyy longer than I expected... so it is gonna have to wait a bit while I get some other stuff done.
Most important for now - I do not think MM is a good lynch today.