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[iguanaiguana]

So, thoughts on the Ashersky.

WW/Ash. If Ash is scum, WW is probably his most likely partner. Ash tunneling WW early and then moving him to the middle of his scum reads after the claiming situation looks scummy. But he's also been consistently calling WW scummy, and saying the most likely scum team is ss/WW. I am inclined to agree, so...
Ash/Awaclus. I already called this the most unlikely pair. Interestingly, it all has to do with Awaclus, not Ash. Nothing Ash says makes me think he's not Awaclus' partner, except some of the stuff in their early fight.
Ash/silver. It seems pretty damn unlikely to me. They've been going at each other's throats. I just don't think scum bus this hard in a game like this.

Ash is the towniest VT alive IMO. He's unlikely to be scum with any of these people, MAYBE Witherweaver... but that depends on WW being the goon and Ash being JoAT, so I wouldn't even rank that very high.

[iguanaiguana]

Thoughts on the Ashersky pairings*

is what that should say up top.

[iguanaiguana]

what facts are you even talking about?

I'm talking about eliminating unlikely pairs. If we keep two people alive who are most unlikely to be scum partners, we win. That's how we win the game. The only way we are wrong is if everyone agrees that the most unlikely scum partners... are scum partners.

Ash/Awaclus are unlikely partners, so I'm in favor of keeping them alive until we lynch you two.

silver/Ash are also unlikely partners, so if we can't agree to lynch silver/WW then I want to lynch Awaclus/WW.

[silverspawn]

well I'm on board with lynching Awaclus. I think anyone that isn't WW is fine.

[iguanaiguana]

well I'm on board with lynching Awaclus. I think anyone that isn't WW is fine.

Isn't this basically saying "I am scum with Witherweaver." ?

[silverspawn]

well I'm on board with lynching Awaclus. I think anyone that isn't WW is fine.

Isn't this basically saying "I am scum with Witherweaver." ?

no, it's saying I have a town read on WW.

[iguanaiguana]

silver, when did you vote for Ash today? I can't find it.

[silverspawn]

silver, when did you vote for Ash today? I can't find it.

first post of the day

we should have lynched ash yesterday. as I was saying, while he pushed a mislynch.

[iguanaiguana]

silverspawn re-read:

#77: RVS votes WW, comments on Ash having a plan
Claims nothing to claim, talks theory about Hydrad's role
#123: first to criticize Joseph for VT claim
#127: disagrees with WW voting Awaclus because Awaclus voted Joseph. (IE: expresses that his view that Joseph could be scum faking ignorance)
#157: Votes for Joseph
#158: I'm scummiest after Joseph
#163: switches to me because I'm saying "I'm town" too much and 'downplaying it.'
#215: I post that we shouldn't lynch Ash or Awaclus and that their behavior is null. Haddock agrees. silver says "No, claiming that things are null is scummy."
#261 & 263: calls my vote on him OMGUS & confirmation bias
#267: Says my case on him is not the worst he's ever seen, describes how he's lurking because the game is boring and he's busy (implied: not because I'm sick of being scum.)
Argues with me some more when I push him. Just defending himself here. They're decent defenses, they make sense.
#313: says I can't be blamed for ash's vt claim.
#318: randomly votes for e. Kinda out of nowhere.  This is silver's third switch to a vote on someone who is now confirmed town. A little scummy.
He's then on board with a mass claim, claims VT (Enter WIFOM)
#373: Says "we know Awaclus will claim a PR, or scum has already lost."
#374: Says that among the VTs he's looking at Joseph and WW, but that it may be a mistake to give Ash a  pass. (This is before Awaclus claims VT).
#376: Says "let's give Ash a pass then" because e thinks Ash would claim a PR as scum.
#432: switches to voting for Ash after Awaclus claims.
#433: Grabs a scummy quote from Joseph (This is part of what pushed me to lynch Joseph, so now I'm kicking myself for being swayed by someone with a then-40% chance of being scum.)
#434: Gives his Ash-Joseph proposal
Now he argues with Ashersky. I've already discussed this. The whole "least experienced player" argument is a non-issue.
#566-7: Says he wants an Ash lynch even though the case Joseph/Ash case is weaker because they both would have had to screw up the claiming. Then says "But it's still the most likely." Kinda scummy
#591: Pushes for 2 of the 3 ICs to guide the lynch.
#632: Ask a rhetorical question implying that Ash/silver is impossible.
#648: Still thinks Ash is scum, despite Joseph flipping town. Doesn't address how Joseph's flip changes the game at all. Scummy.

Somehow silver gets put down as voting for Ash, but he hasn't actually? Confused by this. I don't see silver voting anywhere except in D1.
I don't think I need to paraphrase things he's said since I started doing these rereads, so I won't bother with that.

[iguanaiguana]

silver, when did you vote for Ash today? I can't find it.

first post of the day

we should have lynched ash yesterday. as I was saying, while he pushed a mislynch.

Thanks, found it. I got confused thinking that was still D1.

[iguanaiguana]

So I actually think that

WW/silver
and
Awaclus/silver

are both fairly likely. Ash/silver is totally not out of the question, either. But I'd call that less likely. I definitely think Ash comes off townier than silver, especially after rereading.

Silver says very little about WW or Awaclus. His townreading WW now seems really scummy to me. How can a VT townread another VT here when there is a 2/3rds chance of him being scum? How can silver just ignore Awaclus being willing to lynch Ash?

I really think silver/WW is the most likely pairing.

[Awaclus]

How can a VT townread another VT here when there is a 2/3rds chance of him being scum?

Well, this is not entirely accurate. From my perspective, ash and silver both have a 1/3 chance of being the Goon, 1/2 chance of being the JoaT and 1/6 chance of being town. WW has 1/3 chance of being the goon and 2/3 chance of being town. I have a scummier than townier read on WW so I find it strange, noteworthy and scummy that silver actually has a town read on him, but purely from a mathematical point of view, WW really is very significantly more likely to be town than the other two.

It's also worth noting again that if we do correctly lynch goon!ash or goon!silver, we 100% win the game, because then we just simply have so many ICs that even if we mislynch and scum NKs successfully, at LyLo it's going to be 2 ICs vs 1 scum which is obviously a win for town. If we correctly lynch goon!WW, it's still pretty good because we would have had to do that sooner or later anyway, but it's not that good because it doesn't create an additional IC.

[iguanaiguana]

Thanks for lurking, WW. I'm getting sick of these rereads:

#60: His RVS on e includes calling him scummy.
#90: Says e is (scum) buddying. Says Ash's plan gives scum a free ride to fake claim. Believes my claim.
#92: Considers Ash/Iguana team.
#96: The infamous "scummy" call for a massclaim that we ended up doing anyway.
#106: More attention to e for his early reads list.
#126: Votes Awaclus. I've discussed this.
#168: Still townreading me, scumreading e.
#175: Makes a joke that implies the scum team is Joseph/e
#177: Points out that Haddock's arguments for e being scum could be used by e against Haddock.
#189: Distrustful of Joseph
#209: Jokingly calls an Ash/Awaclus scum team.
#212: Says Awaclus is scummy for sharing thoughts. I find this comment scummy because Awaclus hadn't really shared many thoughts.
#236: Null on Haddock, but Haddock is the kind of person he "always finds scummy."
#269: Points out that the wagon on him "got no momentum," kinda weird because it was really just an RVS wagon (which was weird to begin with).
#333: Back to voting for Joseph
#347: Jokes about an Ash/e scumteam.
#359: first person to claim VT in the massclaim.
#396: Prefers Joseph/silver to Awaclus/Ash
#448: Doesn't want people to townread Awaclus for claiming last, because he thinks that scum!Awaclus claiming a PR makes him the first PR we lynch. He still prefers ss to Joseph. This pushing for ss seems to make ss/WW a less likely pairing.
#507: Twilight, pushes for Hydrad to shoot silver. Wants Hydrad to shoot.
#527: WW still leaning silver.
#538: The scummy turnaround. "Every VT wants to lynch silver, so at least one scum must want to lynch silver." as Ash pointed out, I think this makes me ww/ss more likely again. The thing is, WW was only pushing for a silver lynch when everyone else wanted a Joseph lynch. He was saying things to distance himself from silver, which is exactly what scum needs to do to win the game.
#543: Claims that Ash/silver argument escalated "unnaturally quickly," so Ash/silver is more likely than WW/ss
#548: says "scum wants to lynch silver is just a fact." True, unless you are scum, WW my friend. Because now you are trying to get people not to lynch silver.
#562: Starts pushing the Ash/Awaclus story. This is the same story that silver is currently pushing. Scummy.
#601: Makes a post where he's like "Gee, I'm sure glad I'm the goon and not JoAT, or me and silver woulda lost the game." Okay, I'm joking. Except, I'm not joking.
#644: Doesn't hammer, wants to re-read. Towniest thing he's done the whole game. But now he's gone.

[iguanaiguana]

Thoughts on the possible WW scumteams:

WW/ss seems most likely. WW 100% ignores everything silver says until the massclaim (scummy), then he scumreads silver at a point when it doesn't look like silver is likely to be lynched (scummy, and for scum at this point, a necessary risk in order to distance themselves), then he tries to clear silver by pointing out how everyone else is scumreading him (scummy).

WW/Awaclus: Pretty middle of the road. They didn't have many noteworthy interactions. Neither is pushing for each other's lynch right now though (Also Awaclus' recent "numbers" defense of WW just now) It's a possible pair. I already said this is Awaclus' most likely scum partner.

WW/Ash: Also possible. Uh, I can't think of anything intelligent to say about this.

Side note: WW proposes all kinds of bogus scum teams throughout D1. Most of them are no longer possible. Here they all are: Me/Ash, Joseph/e, Ash/Awaclus (still possible), Ash/e, Joseph/silver, Ash/silver (still possible). It's interesting to me that all of the teams he's suggested are now either flat out impossible or make it to my "Least likely scum teams" in my analysis. So this is another thing that's making me think WW is scum.

The main thing that's making me not want to lynch WW today is my result on him. If he's scum, he's the goon. And Awaclus just made sense about him too.

[iguanaiguana]

Last bit of work. I'm ranking scum teams from most likely to least likely.

ss/WW > ss/Awa > WW/Awa > WW/Ash > ss/Ash > Ash/Awa

That's where I'm at right now, I guess.

[2.71828.....]

hey, iguana and I have the same reads

[Witherweaver]

I don't understand why me proposing impossible scum teams Day 1 is scummy, like at all.  You can't go through a game without finding town scummy.

In other news, I'm starting to lean towards lynching Awaclus.

[iguanaiguana]

I don't understand why me proposing impossible scum teams Day 1 is scummy, like at all.  You can't go through a game without finding town scummy.

In other news, I'm starting to lean towards lynching Awaclus.

It's not the scummiest thing and you do it a lot. But just from a reads perspective, I doubt the VTs who spent the beginning of D1 tunneling people who are now confirmed town more than the VTs who did not do this, and townread the VTs who townread people who are now ICs before they were ICs more than the people who didn't do this.

Scum has a prerogative to create false scumreads, and they had no idea at the beginning of the game that so many people people would become ICs by the end of D1.

[iguanaiguana]

hey, iguana and I have the same reads

Yeah, kinda scummy lol

[Witherweaver]

I don't understand why me proposing impossible scum teams Day 1 is scummy, like at all.  You can't go through a game without finding town scummy.

In other news, I'm starting to lean towards lynching Awaclus.

It's not the scummiest thing and you do it a lot. But just from a reads perspective, I doubt the VTs who spent the beginning of D1 tunneling people who are now confirmed town more than the VTs who did not do this, and townread the VTs who townread people who are now ICs before they were ICs more than the people who didn't do this.

Scum has a prerogative to create false scumreads, and they had no idea at the beginning of the game that so many people people would become ICs by the end of D1.

But I also don't know who is scum, so everyone is a suspect. 

[iguanaiguana]

Look, I'll make you a deal.

Last time I did a big thing like this and scumread you, I was totally right (it was also totally obvious), and I never got to lynch you, and you won the game by poisoning me to death.

This time, I'm gunna lynch you (tomorrow, probably). If you are town this time, you can bring this is up next time and be like "But remember that other time when you were totally wrong about me?"

[Haddock]

Haddock, look at the facts and remove your vote. You and at least one scum are on your wagon, possibly two. If we lynch Ash today our very good chance of winning turns into a toss up.

Ugh, fine.

I lied before because I wanted to a) see interactions and b) survive the night.

I wouldn't have done it if I didn't think there was a good chance that the ash lynch would go through anyway, since both other ICs originally wanted to lynch ash.

Anyway now it looks like I'll have to claim my result to get an ash lynch through. 
My result on ash is not neutral, it incriminates him beyond doubt.

[2.71828.....]

nice.

I am good with vote: ashersky in that case

[Awaclus]

Was that the hammer?

[ashersky]

It was.

Well, I like the idea of faking/withholding result info to get reactions, but lying about yours on me being incriminating seems like bad form at L-1.

I still think SS is scum without a doubt, unclear on his partner.

Also, FYI, I am glad 2.7 was the hammer -- he's a very fitting player to get to lay claim to the last hammer ever on me.

Good luck everyone!