Topic: M76: Soap Opera Mafia (Game Over! Town Wins!) (Read 76561 times)

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #650 on:** February 21, 2016, 07:55:30 pm »

*most UNlikely team* I meant

silverspawn · « **Reply #651 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:00:19 pm »

I don't think we need 3, or will ever get three. But I think we should get 2.

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #652 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:02:58 pm »

Getting three is not hard at all. We just keep talking until e, Haddock and I all agree on a lynch. If VTs are already voting for that person, then we at least still agreed to lynch them.

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #653 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:03:39 pm »

I'm not trying to belittle anyone here but from our perspective all four of you have ~50% odds of being scum; that doesn't exactly make you people I want to be putting my faith in right now.

silverspawn · « **Reply #654 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:04:17 pm »

Quote from: iguanaiguana on February 21, 2016, 08:02:58 pm

We just keep talking until [...] all agree

yeah. ...

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #655 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:05:19 pm »

We have 8 days, it's not unreasonable at all.

2.71828..... · « **Reply #656 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:06:30 pm »

Quote from: silverspawn on February 21, 2016, 08:04:17 pm

Quote from: iguanaiguana on February 21, 2016, 08:02:58 pm
We just keep talking until [...] all agree

yeah. ...

I am all about lynching someone with 2 VT, 2 PR. We just need one more VT and one more PR to get on board with the silverspawn lynch and we are good to go.

2.71828..... · « **Reply #657 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:06:46 pm »

For starters, iguana should vote silverspawn.

silverspawn · « **Reply #658 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:08:15 pm »

you know I'm actually town, right? You are pushing a mislynch.

2.71828..... · « **Reply #659 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:14:28 pm »

Quote from: silverspawn on February 21, 2016, 08:08:15 pm

you know I'm actually town, right? You are pushing a mislynch.

That is my specialty. I pushed Joseph, remember?

2.71828..... · « **Reply #660 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:15:10 pm »

Wait....I am pushing a silverspawn lynch. That means I am scum though, right? Good thing I am an IC here...

silverspawn · « **Reply #661 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:31:55 pm »

thing is, I really don't understand why you think I'm scum. You only had like 1 quote in your reread for me.

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #662 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:33:32 pm »

Awaclus reread:

#125: First post with content, he votes for Joseph because of his early VT claim.
#193: starts arguing with Ashersky. Other than agreeing with Ash's plan, this is all he's done.
#195: Continues arguing
#202: He says: In my experience, ash tends to post stuff that I don't like as both alignments.

This post strikes me as something that scum might say about a partner in order to distance themselves. I said a lot of things like this about Faust in Marvel Heroes.

#205 & 208 & 220: still arguing
#233 & 234: Votes for Haddock because "he's scum."
#241: Says, there's a good reason to believe Hydrad is town, but he wouldn't count on it unless he had to. He's responding to me being pointlessly provocative.
#266: expresses surprise that silverspawn dislikes being scum. Says that last time he remembered silverspawn being scum, he was really excited about it. (silver then clarifies that he doesn't like scum so much anymore and in fact does prefer town now).

Unless Awaclus is faking ignorance here, this makes silverspawn/Awaclus somewhat less likely to be the scum team.

#382: ~25 hours after previous post, Awaclus is the final person to claim VT. (Enter WIFOM)
#383: Says Ash should claim again sober.
#392: Clarifies: regardless of whether he will switch or not, Awaclus doesn't trust a drunk person's claim.
#442: A sorta joke on Ash's defense (sorta), which Ash appreciates with a +1 on 443
#536: Says he's most willing to lynch silver on (first content post on D2)
#556: Agrees with silver that Ash is the simplest explanation for a scum team since he claimed before the mass claim.
#557 & 559: Retracts his agreement with silver, because "it requires [Ash's] partner to screw up as well."
#579 & 586 & 594: arguing with silver and Haddock about whether or not he's agreeable.
#602: Says "WW could still be the goon, but we should lynch out of Ash or silver"
#619: Discusses how scum!Ash might have been considering Hydrad
#620: Wants to lynch Ash
#636: Thinks that silver/Ash is a likely possibility
#639: Puts Ash at L-1

That's most of Awaclus' posts. So let's look at the possible Awaclus partners:

WW/Awaclus looks like the most likely partnership if Awaclus is scum. Awaclus doesn't say anything at all about Witherweaver, except in post #602 where he hedges a bit (it's pretty reasonable, of course) and says that even though WW could still be the mafia goon, we shouldn't lynch him today.

silverspawn/Awaclus looks fairly unlikely especially with post #266, but I don't want to rule it out.

Ashersky/Awaclus still seems pretty unlikely. I originally called Awaclus/Ash an unlikely pairing, but looking back at their arguments they could have been staged. But we do have Awaclus pushing an Ash lynch right now, and I think that bussing a partner loses scum the game right now (I still need to fully run these numbers). Putting your partner at L-1 seems pretty unlikely.

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #663 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:34:58 pm »

In the end, Awaclus doesn't look that towny, and I'm very wary about Awaclus/WW as possible partners. Back to back silverspawn/Ashersky lynches look a lot worse now, let's not do that.

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #664 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:37:21 pm »

And again, I think I want to emphasize that Awaclus/Ash looks so unlikely at this point that if we keep them both alive (by lynching silver/WW), we should win.

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #665 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:37:33 pm »

But I've got three more re-reads to do before I vote.

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #666 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:40:37 pm »

Speaking to town!silver here,

If you exist, do you believe it is possible for Awaclus/Ash to be a scum team?

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #667 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:44:48 pm »

I guess, Awaclus could have put Ash at L-1 in order to ultimately convince us all that they aren't partners, because they actually are... and this is how they win.

Man, I'm willing to bet on that not being what happened. That would be SO bold.

silverspawn · « **Reply #668 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:52:51 pm »

Quote from: iguanaiguana on February 21, 2016, 08:40:37 pm

Speaking to town!silver here,

If you exist, do you believe it is possible for Awaclus/Ash to be a scum team?

well yeah, I think that's probably the most likely team.

silverspawn · « **Reply #669 on:** February 21, 2016, 08:53:16 pm »

The only other options are WW-ash and WW-Awaclus, and I have sort of a town read on WW

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #670 on:** February 21, 2016, 09:23:30 pm »

Ashersky reread

#62: Wagons WW on his first post
#81 & 82: The by-now-famous plan
#138: Comments on his plan's fruition. Distrusts Joseph and WW for what they are doing with it.
#142 & 143: More banter with WW that looks somewhat partnery.
#187: Calls agreeing with Awaclus scummy, thus starting the fight
#192, 194, 203, 204, 206, 210, 211: argues with Awaclus
#218: Skeptical post toward Joseph: "You really can't think of anything other than Super PR or scum?"
#225: Wonders why people are voting Haddock
#257: Votes WW for acti-lurking (which he was doing)
#278: Now drunk, switches to silver
Lots of drunk posts. Says "silver is always scum tho."
#305: Claims vt
#414: Reiterates VT claim, says that we have a high probability of winning and that the VTs should rank each other from scummiest to towniest and then let the ICs decide who to lynch. Puts his order as ss - WW/Awaclus - Joseph.

Interesting that Joseph is the least scummy on his list here (despite never expressing that before) and how WW, who he was tunneling before he got drunk, moves to the middle of the list, whereas silver, who he didn't distrust before getting drunk, moves to the front.

#416-421: some dubious theory posts about power roles. Others have already pointed out that Ash is looking at things wrong here.
#427: still leaning for a silver lynch
#437: calls silver's vote on him OMGUS
#440, 441, 452, 454, 455, : Arguing with silver; Ash looks townier here for all of this after Joseph flipped town. He votes silver a second time here, but I believe he was still voting silver from when he was drunk.

#467: Paraphrases his QT. Discusses a townread on Joseph, and a scumread on WW. It looks... pretty towny (or at least authentic.) It wouldn't be crazy for scum to post those things in their QT.
#468: Switches to a hammer!vote on Joseph. Pretty scummy to just switch from your towniest read to your scummiest read. But Ash looks frustrated here also.
#469: Admits it's scummy, but says we "literally win by just lynching all VTs and Hydrad shooting." This is still wrong, but it looks towny to me.
#473: restates his reads as town > scum Awa > WW > silver
Lots of twilight posts that I don't want to summarize all of. They looks fairly towny to me though, especially with Joseph's flip.

D2:
#529: Regards WW/ss as most likely, with the other two options (from his perspective) as equally likely.
#534: Says that he expects Haddock to clear him. Pretty bold, seems towny to me also.
#541: Says that WW is most likely to the scum who expressed interest in lynching silver.
#545: Ash making sense here. Kinda scary actually.
#549: Says that he doesn't think silver and him would go for a fake fight as scum partners.
Argues with silver some more. He's making more sense here. Why are we lynching Ash again? Ash is a terrible lynch today.
#589: More towny frustration
#645: Trying to save himself, votes for silver.

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #671 on:** February 21, 2016, 09:23:48 pm »

Quote from: silverspawn on February 21, 2016, 08:52:51 pm

Quote from: iguanaiguana on February 21, 2016, 08:40:37 pm
Speaking to town!silver here,

If you exist, do you believe it is possible for Awaclus/Ash to be a scum team?

well yeah, I think that's probably the most likely team.

Cool.

Vote: silverspawn

iguanaiguana · « **Reply #672 on:** February 21, 2016, 09:25:54 pm »

Haddock, look at the facts and remove your vote. You and at least one scum are on your wagon, possibly two. If we lynch Ash today our very good chance of winning turns into a toss up.

silverspawn · « **Reply #673 on:** February 21, 2016, 09:26:14 pm »

noo man. You were on the correct lynch, now you switched to a mislynch. Don't do that. You'll be kicking yourself after the game.

silverspawn · « **Reply #674 on:** February 21, 2016, 09:27:44 pm »

what facts are you even talking about?

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Author Topic: M76: Soap Opera Mafia (Game Over! Town Wins!) (Read 76561 times)