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[silverspawn]

I understand your 'lynch us tomorrow' thing.

Great! So our lynch is off the table. Fantastic.

But couldn't Awaclus pull the same thing?

I don't know what you mean.

[Roadrunner7671]

I understand your 'lynch us tomorrow' thing.

Great! So our lynch is off the table. Fantastic.

But couldn't Awaclus pull the same thing?

I don't know what you mean.

'Just lynch me tomorrow guys! What's the harm?'
-Awaclus

[silverspawn]

'Just lynch me tomorrow guys! What's the harm?'
-Awaclus

Well the harm is that we could lose to his partner.

The reason why the argument works for the masons is that, if you lynch one and he flips scum, you know who the other is. That's why it's a safe bet. If you lynch me and I flip scum, then you know the other scum is chairs. You lynch him the day after, you win. Setup is not closed, so there are no risks.

With Awaclus, you wait until tomorrow to lynch him, then you end up at 3 player LyLo with an unknown scum. Not at all a safe bet.

[silverspawn]

Of course, to minimize the risk of not hitting scum today, we should lynch you instad of Awaclus. Didn't someone want to do that anyway? vote: RR

[Roadrunner7671]

Of course, to minimize the risk of not hitting scum today, we should lynch you instad of Awaclus. Didn't someone want to do that anyway? vote: RR

Why don't you do the math and see how likely our current setup is but replace the UB with a VT.
I think you'll find that everything in this setup is very unlikely.

[yuma]

Of course, to minimize the risk of not hitting scum today, we should lynch you instad of Awaclus. Didn't someone want to do that anyway? vote: RR

Why don't you do the math and see how likely our current setup is but replace the UB with a VT.
I think you'll find that everything in this setup is very unlikely.

So you are asking us to compare a scenario where there is BVMMM compared to BVM. Those two extra Ms are pretty significant so 1/10 each time compared to a 5/10 for a T each time.

[Awaclus]

The mason thing is not probabilistic. In the scum!mason narrative, lynching masons wins 100% if you do it tomorrow! LYNCH EVERYONE WHO REFUSES TO UNDERSTAND THAT!

You can't compare lynching today and lynching tomorrow. You have to compare lynching today and not lynching today. The former results in 100% win, the latter results in 5p LyLo with no ICs. LYNCH EVERYONE WHO REFUSES TO UNDERSTAND THAT!

[yuma]

So mostly I am trying to figure out what is optimal here... mostly trying to work out scenarios...

- If RR is UB and chairs/ss are mafia
--lynch RR, flips UB. have to decide to lynch chairs/ss against non claimants
--lynch ss, confirms RR as UB, confirms chairs as mafia

- If RR is mafia and chairs/ss are mason
--lynch RR, flips mafia, confirms chairs/ss, find other mafia team member
--lynch ss, confirms chairs as mason have to decide whether RR is mafia or non claimants

- If RR is UB and chairs/ss are masons
--lynch RR, flips UB. have to decide to lynch chairs/ss against non claimants
--lynch ss, confirms chairs as mason, have to decide whether RR is mafia or non claimants

right now it looks to me like the better option is to lynch RR now. if he is town there is a strong likelihood that chairs/ss are mafia mathematically but not guaranteed... I think...

[Witherweaver]

I don't believe RR.

Why wait to bring this up until now?

[yuma]

vote: RR

[Roadrunner7671]

I don't believe RR.

Why wait to bring this up until now?

I didn't want to get night killed.

I'd prefer you guys to not lynch me in order to help you find scum or whatever.
Ppe

[yuma]

hasn't been a vote count in a while... so L-1

[silverspawn]

actually my math was not correct because I was ignoring permutations. Of the last three letters we have to compare the odds of 2 M and 1 T vs 3 T, but the 2 M 1 T can come as MMT, MTM, or TMM, so it's

P(MMT) + P(MTM) + P(TMM) / P(TTT) = 3*P(TMM) / P(TTT) = 3*P(MM)/P(TT) = 3/25.

So that's 12% rather than 4%.

Anyway. Whatever. I know the rest of the players don't really care much about it anyway, and I'm fine with either RR or Awaclus. I let you decide.

[Roadrunner7671]

So I think I'm going down. I'm not sure whether or not I want input on whether or not we lynch SS/Chairs, but I'd probably go for them.

If you guys choose to not go for them, I'd lynch in the Awaclus/Yuma area before WW.
Ppe 2

[Roadrunner7671]

actually my math was not correct because I was ignoring permutations. Of the last three letters we have to compare the odds of 2 M and 1 T vs 3 T, but the 2 M 1 T can come as MMT, MTM, or TMM, so it's

P(MMT) + P(MTM) + P(TMM) / P(TTT) = 3*P(TMM) / P(TTT) = 3*P(MM)/P(TT) = 3/25.

So that's 12% rather than 4%.

Anyway. Whatever. I know the rest of the players don't really care much about it anyway, and I'm fine with either RR or Awaclus. I let you decide.

I care. That's a big deal.

[silverspawn]

Unofficial Vote Count:

Roadrunner7671 (3): Witherweaver, silverspawn, yuma
Awaclus (1): chairs
silverspawn (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (2): Axxle, Roadrunner7671

looks like L-1

[Roadrunner7671]

Looks bad for me. I was towny before I claimed. Everyone told me the UB should claim. I didn't think they should. I guess this is why.

[silverspawn]

actually let's unvote and see what the two other IC's decide. I don't like that WW and yuma are on this wagon

[Roadrunner7671]

actually let's unvote and see what the two other IC's decide. I don't like that WW and yuma are on this wagon

Yay, I guess. But man, if you guys were going to kill your UB as soon as he claimed, you shoulda said so.

[yuma]

actually let's unvote and see what the two other IC's decide. I don't like that WW and yuma are on this wagon

You should only be worried in the 12% scenario of which you spoke about earlier... so you can't be that worried...

[silverspawn]

One thing to note is that RR could have hammered Awaclus the entire time. Understandable hesitance if it's an RR/Awaclus team, but if not, then why wait and now claim UB?

Also we could maybe examine the claim in a bit more detail.

For example, RR hasn't even claimed his targets yet. You inherited a RB, who did you target?

[silverspawn]

You should only be worried in the 12% scenario of which you spoke about earlier... so you can't be that worried...

I know, but we already dragged it out for days, we can at least take a few more minutes.

[yuma]

You should only be worried in the 12% scenario of which you spoke about earlier... so you can't be that worried...

I know, but we already dragged it out for days, we can at least take a few more minutes.

Hey it is your mason/buddy or the IC that would hammer, so I guess I am not that concerned... I am making a semi-quick decision partially because last time in this setup I let myself talk myself into doing something stupid.

[Awaclus]

One thing to note is that RR could have hammered Awaclus the entire time.

Why would he do that if he doesn't think I'm scum (like he shouldn't)?

[silverspawn]

You should only be worried in the 12% scenario of which you spoke about earlier... so you can't be that worried...

I know, but we already dragged it out for days, we can at least take a few more minutes.

Hey it is your mason/buddy or the IC that would hammer, so I guess I am not that concerned... I am making a semi-quick decision partially because last time in this setup I let myself talk myself into doing something stupid.

couldn't Awaclus also have hammered?