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[ashersky]

Finally read up.  Not a lot of time, mostly skimming along.

O seems super different from his D1 presentation.  Everyone so far seems the same.  I think day to day changes can be alignment-indicative; night action, the dead and not dead, etc. can garner reactions.

So the talk of gkrieg's death (or lack thereof?) is interesting.  Given it is game 100, seems like time to share but tells/theories: players have specific ways of discussing the players they kill.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Actually seeing if my recollection holds up here:

M98: mcmc, Robz, Eevee and faust were the scums. mcmc voted for me early and pushed my lynch pretty hard Day 1 (enough that faust tried to spin it the next day that I was the SK that shot him because of this). Day 2 faust, Eevee and Robz were all on my lynch wagon.

NM9: Lalight and Space were scum. Lalight was the major pusher of my wagon that day. I got up to L-1. And I am not remembering that space didn't vote for me here. So I guess it isn't a perfect theory.

I think I was a good (likely) wagon for scum to join and am interested in that possibility. Of course townies likely joined it as well, as they did in the games above. So it is looking at the wagons and trying to figure out which ones of them are most likely based off context. sudgy's context, plus his play Day 2 thus far I think are the best bet.
 

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Can you provide some quotes or quote numbers TWM?

In regard to sudgy? Sure.

His first vote on me;

I finally caught up!  (during my chemistry class, hope that won't bite me in the butt)

Anyway, Vote: The_Wine_Merchant.  I don't like some of his setup speculation at the beginning.  I feel like he was trying to breadcrumb too much in it all (for possible fakeclaims in the future), and I feel like he's been reacting to the votes in a scummy way.  It feels like scum feeling caught for the wrong reasons.

His vote coming back to me;

Unvote don't want to get too close to ending day.

Vote: The_Wine_Merchant that was way too fast

His most recent vote on me today;

I know faust kind of did this already, but I feel like there's a bit of info to be gleaned from Calamitas' posts.  These are the only two posts that he mentions other players:

This game is really huge.

In regard to the game, I don't like the extent to which TWM is talking about vigs here.

Can someone voting for JReggie present the case in a nytshell?

I don't like that first one.  Of all the things people were talking about (mainly a lot of setup speculation), Calamitas mentions TWM's vig talk, which he only mentioned twice, and the last mention was several pages before.  It's just an awkward thing to mention.  I've already had a scumread on TWM anyway, so maybe there's confirmation bias, but I feel like this is the only thing that Calamitas said that could lead to anything.  There's also this interaction:

Guys, I cannot follow really. Can someone give me a short version with the reasoning for all claims with all relevant evidence?
(Please tag it with @Cala). This game is just crazy.

@Cala.

Very few if any of the votes have any substantial reasons at all. This is the hardest game I have had getting reads that are much good at all and I am fully caught up and aware. This isn't going to change until we get some flips. But apparently we want 4 more days of it.

Calamitas makes a plea for people to talk to him, and TWM is the only one who responds.  Also, TWM is basically just saying "It's okay, just keep lurking."

Basically, Calamitas and TWM seemed to notice each other more than others did.  I know it's not terribly useful info, but I feel like it's something.  I still find TWM to be scummy, so Vote: The_Wine_Merchant for now.

[iguanaiguana]

Here are my thoughts, from memory, on everyone else:

Galzria - scum. see above.

The_Wine_Merchant - So far, I believe from what he's said and from what a few others have confirmed that TWM is playing into his town meta, and that as scum he has not played like this yet. That would mean that for him to be scum, he would have to have studied somewhat how to play into his own town meta. Slight town for now. I do not see the connections that McMc has suggested between TWM and Galzria at all. 

Eevee - I don't like all the sheeping. I don't like his defenses. But I remember having similar feelings about him in the last game we played, where everyone thought he was scum, and he ended up getting shot by the SK who was aiming for scum, and he was town. I haven't decided what that means.
 
faust - Null. Seems a little less present than usual.

LaLight - At this point, I think the LaLight/Galzria argument makes me lean town on him. I have trouble reading LaLight, though.

Awaclus - probably town. Awaclus is never this bored with a game when he's scum.

SpaceAnemone - Scummy place on the J Reggie wagon makes me lean slight scum. A lot of null posts.

2.71828..... - Having trouble remembering e. Need to reread him in detail.

pingpongsam - IIRC, PPS avoided all major wagons all day yesterday. Could see that as scummy in a game this big. But I do not get scum vibes from his playstyle.

Dylan32 - scummy lurking, could lynch

RoadRunner - self aware scummy lurking and non-playing - could lynch

Jimmmmm - hasn't even started playing yet. I want to let him be.

O - Awaclus thinks you are scum, so therefore you are uh, sarcastic. I guess all the people townreading you probably means that I shouldn't. Haven't seen a reason to lynch.

AndrewisFTTW - I think I mostly agree with the cases on Andrew, although McMcs case is overblown and ridiculous. Like Galzria, lots of people suspect him, few willing to vote him. That's suspicious.

Cuzz - I lean town. Clear, targeted, interrogative play that is hard to fake as scum, plus 

ashersky - Don't like the cases on Ash. He's got a VLA posted and has stated several times that he won't have time to play as hard until later. Let's give him a chance to actually play before we lynch him maybe? My bias here is that I really don't want Ash to go Yuma on us.

JaketheBaseballGod22 - Started the J Reggie wagon. I think never left it? Seems like town. I guess Jake would be a good one not to forget about later.

mcmcsalot - The self awareness of his meta makes me think he could easily be scum who has decided to play different as scum than he usually does. It's too too easy to play erratically, then say "I would never be this careless as scum!" Do not trust.

sudgy - agree with most of the cases on Sudgy - somewhat scummy, somewhat lurky. I dont really want to vote here though, because Galz.

[iguanaiguana]

Cuzz - I lean town. Clear, targeted, interrogative play that is hard to fake as scum, plus he's the only one who has paid any attention to me this game.

I didn't write that post in order.

[pingpongsam]

So basically iguana is suspicious of those playing the game. Most suspicious of those most playing the game. Those that aren't really playing at all are probably town and should be allowed to play one day.

[Galzria]

I really don't like what Galzria is doing. D1, he posts a huge case on J Reggie, then pivots as soon as it gets any traction.

That's somewhat accurate, yes. I did make a case on Reggie (wouldn't call it huge - it had two main points to it), and I did pivot off after almost 24 hours and everybody had a chance to weigh in. I was more interested in the reactions to the wagon than to actually lynching Reggie over an early d1 case.

Now today he's calling his case weak:

When I removed myself from the Reggie wagon it was because it had grown to considerable size - more than I thought my case was worthy of (it was ok for d1, but it was still just a d1 case) - and knowing myself to be town I didn't (don't) believe that it got to L-2 and a softclaim without scum driving the lynch. Hence my desire to focus on those that pushed the wagon up after me.

To me, this looks like reinventing his own narrative. At the time, the case was stated very strongly. Now that the case is on a known VT, he wants to downplay and it call it "okay for D1."

I disagree with this conclusion completely. This is a direct quote from my leaving the wagon yesterday, before we knew anything about Reggie's alignment:

I don't think my case on J Reggie was bad. Especially for d1. I think that there was definitely some points of interest in it - but the day is young, and I think our chances of hitting scum looking at his wagon are much higher than the chance that I happened to find the smallest of scum type slips out of any player on d1.

Nothing has changed from my perspective. I had an ok d1 case, but that's all it was. I felt then, and do now, that looking at the wagon that followed that case would lead to our best chances of finding scum. This was (as stated in the post I just linked) completely independent of Reggie's alignment.

It's like he wants everyone else who was on the wagon to take the blame for what happened aside from him.

Again, I think you'll find this is incorrect. In my questioning of LaLight yesterday, I continually kept myself in the list of people that he indicated that he found scummy for having left the Reggie wagon. I don't believe that from anybody else's perspective I should be anything other than a question mark (someone asked yesterday who should be trusted more, me or someone else and I responded in similar fashion - why would anybody trust either of us?) - I believe that from yours, or fausts, or mcmc's, or LL's or anybody's point of view I should be looked at as closely as anybody else. --- That said, I don't know how you would expect me to look at myself? So yes, I focus on everybody else.

It also concerns me how easily people add their votes to his when he casts a vote, and how few people are willing to vote for him. People join right away when he votes for J Reggie, and right away when he votes for LaLight, and now today several people are saying he looks scummy from yesterday but no one is casting a vote.

This concerns me as well and I've mentioned it a few times now. I don't know what to tell you though. It's their votes, not mine. I wish people added more detail and thought to their votes as well instead of just sheeping me when I see something I find scummy.

McMc is calling scum teams because of this stuff. I think that's a little ridiculous, but in general I still think it's scum indicative when no one is willing to vote for a player and I think it can be scum indicative when lots of people are willing to sheep a player too.

Neither of these lines of thought make much sense to me.

Also, in general, I don't like how much he posts conclusions and compared to how little he asks questions. I mean, it's easy to solve something when you already know the answers.

Vote: Galzria

I ask questions when I feel I want to flesh out how I feel about things. I asked LaLight and Reggie both many questions. But when I'm doing what I have been today (rereading and looking at interactions based on events) it's more to focus on what's been said and done already, and less about looking for reactions from today. I still ask questions when I feel I need to, but yes - it's more analyzing than it is question/answer.

PPE: Many.

[Cuzz]

So basically iguana is suspicious of those playing the game. Most suspicious of those most playing the game. Those that aren't really playing at all are probably town and should be allowed to play one day.

I don't think that is what iguana is saying. I think iguana is using extra-game criteria to decide on a D2 lynch and trying to give people who are VLA or busy IRL a pass.

I kinda understand it, but also don't like it because it's not alignment-indicative and it gives scum incentive to lie about these things and then everything gets personal and toxic. Of course pushing to lynch such people can also get unpleasant. It's my least favorite aspect of mafia.

But in any case, iguana said they would lynch Dylan and RR, and is suspicious of sudgy and Space.
They also lean town on me and are null on O, faust and you, pps. These don't break down quite as simply as you imply.

[Cuzz]

iguana, what's your pronoun?

[iguanaiguana]

So basically iguana is suspicious of those playing the game. Most suspicious of those most playing the game. Those that aren't really playing at all are probably town and should be allowed to play one day.

Actually I want to give these two people a pass for now:

Jimmmmm - hasn't even started playing yet. I want to let him be.

ashersky - Don't like the cases on Ash. He's got a VLA posted and has stated several times that he won't have time to play as hard until later. Let's give him a chance to actually play before we lynch him maybe? My bias here is that I really don't want Ash to go Yuma on us.

because they have both said that later on the expect to have more time and will be able to post more content. I want to se what that content is, so I don't want to lynch them right now.

These people, however:

Dylan32 - scummy lurking, could lynch

RoadRunner - self aware scummy lurking and non-playing - could lynch

AndrewisFTTW - I think I mostly agree with the cases on Andrew, although McMcs case is overblown and ridiculous. Like Galzria, lots of people suspect him, few willing to vote him. That's suspicious.

sudgy - agree with most of the cases on Sudgy - somewhat scummy, somewhat lurky. I dont really want to vote here though, because Galz.

are lurking and have also made a few scummy posts. I think the difference between the Ash cases I've seen today and the cases on, say, Sudgy, is that the Ash cases have been 'He's lurking, we should lynch him." and the Sudgy cases are based on things he has actually said.

[Galzria]

Bleh. Been looking through posts for too long today. Going to take a break and give my eyes a rest. I've got some work that needs doing anyway. I'll still be on mobile, but I'll continue with my look down the Reggie wagon a bit later.

[iguanaiguana]

iguana, what's your pronoun?

I'm a boy. I'm not actually a reptile but it's fine if you think I am.

[SpaceAnemone]

We are really marching in lockstep with PPS in this game, and I'm not sure what to make of it. Basically, he's been townreading me all game, and while correct and appreciated, I don't know if it's something I should feel comfortable with. Then again, I agree with his reads and general view of the game as well.

I was pleasantly surprised at his lack of scumread on me. I'm still struggling too much to have a decent read on the people who're new to me, so I can't say yet whether or not I agree with his reads overall.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

And, in reply to both of the quotes, please show other posts that Calamitas had actual interesting interactions with others.  It mostly was setup theory which anybody can fake, and asking about the J Reggie wagon (which anybody could do).  These were the only two interesting things I saw him post.

I'll do my best:

1. JReggie - asks for nutshell case on him
2. Galzria - responds to Galz noting his lack of reads/votes, specifically calls him out on lack of reads
3. gkrieg - agrees with gkrieg
4. The_Wine_Merchant - me talking about vigs
5. Calamitas - himself
6. Eevee - states interest in voting
7. faust
8. LaLight - asks about scumslips
9. Awaclus - asks Awaclus about hard evidence, multiple posts here
10. SpaceAnemone - talks to space about werewolves, back and forth here; large post about claiming stuff. Space specifically asked for his opinion here.
11. 2.71828.....
12.pingpongsam
13. Dylan32
14. RoadRunner
15.iguanaiguana
16. Jimmmmm - quotes Calam asking for a case on J Reggie
17. O
18. AndrewisFTTW
19. Cuzz - weighs in on the conversation with gkrieg; Cuzz says he has no read on him specifically when talking about lurkers; says would lynch today
20. ashersky
21. JaketheBaseballGod22
22. mcmcsalot - agrees with mcmc and asks about softdeadlines, back and forth here; says what Calam did (Galz called it out) is 100% in line with Calamatis.
23. sudgy

Blanks are no interaction that I could spot, many are lurkers themselves to that isn't surprising that two lurkers didn't interact with each other. So yeah, interactions with over half of the town. My point is proven. There aren't a lot of interactions but there are certainly more than just me and J Reggie interacting with him. There are various levels of interactions, but I see nothing to separate my interaction above the rest, especially when sudgy completely failed to actually analyze the interactions in any way other than to continue fabricating or continue confirming (I lean toward fabricating) a scum read on me.

If I take anything from this I would think Eevee or Cuzz are the two that jump out at me as both state willingness to lynch him among a group of others. It generates an interaction that isn't likely to generate a lynch.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

The_Wine_Merchant - So far, I believe from what he's said and from what a few others have confirmed that TWM is playing into his town meta, and that as scum he has not played like this yet. That would mean that for him to be scum, he would have to have studied somewhat how to play into his own town meta. Slight town for now. I do not see the connections that McMc has suggested between TWM and Galzria at all. 

I think to be fair I had the weird experience of playing two mafia games prior to ever playing as town. So my mafia experience was completely devoid of any town experience and I expect it would be different from my previous scum meta based off those experiences. That said, I think my town meta would be difficult to pull off and I would not be as within my town meta as I am now. For whatever that means.

[iguanaiguana]

Fancy rebuttal

I do not trust the way that you are able to put a super-complentary-towards-yourself spin on everything related to you. The effect is suspicious, because you are taking something you DID, vote for Reggie with a case that looked strong and lead to his lynch, without actually being ON that lynch -- and then you are trying to take all the scumminess away with things that you have SAID-your supposed townie motivations for your actions.

I fully admit that your rebuttal appears stronger than my case. But the fact that I feel verbally outmatched does nothing to derail the strength of my conviction. I should have stuck with this yesterday:

Vote: Galzria

I don't want to let this guy Sherlock town into the dirt.

At least until something more convincing comes along, I'm sticking with it today.

Cue the hordes of people who will join me on this sensible quest.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

mcmc is obviously (to me) off about the scum team thing. I think my townish read of Andrew is completely fair based off my understanding of how he has played previous scum games. We were partners once, I observed him once as scum (correctly calling it as an observer) and I town read him accurately last game. Plus he modded a game with me when I was town and townread me correctly last game.

Galz I don't know what to think. Lots of work, but consistently coming into slightly different conclusions than me. I am interested to see what happens with him on later days mostly.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

At least until something more convincing comes along, I'm sticking with it today.

Sudgy!

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Oh. And mcmc wasn't ever scum partners with me and Andrew at the same time. I combined games there.

[Galzria]

I could be down with a Sudgy vote. I'm still looking over his Reggie stuff, but these two quotes to me seem contradictory:

It's usually way worse to scum for a scum player to die than to town for a town player to die.  So, scum will usually have a greater will to live than town. Then, on top of it all, if you did nothing wrong and everybody hates you, of course you get frustrated.  Sure, town will get frustrated too, but not nearly as much as scum does.

Anyway, I think that any setup speculation is useless D1.  We don't have any information and can't really figure out anything because of that.  The only thing we get is possibly outed PRs.

I still like my J Reggie vote.  However, I do like the idea of people self-hammering (when they are definitely getting lynched anyway) in anticipation of a hammer hero.  Not just here, but all the time until we confirm there is no hammer hero alive.

The second is, obviously, after Reggie had stated his plan. But Sudgy was still voting him. Which means Sudgy... thought he was scum? Scum that was willing to self-hammer? That goes against what he said above. Granted there is WIFOM in there, but I don't think that's what Sudgy was suggesting was going on.

[sudgy]

I could be down with a Sudgy vote. I'm still looking over his Reggie stuff, but these two quotes to me seem contradictory:

It's usually way worse to scum for a scum player to die than to town for a town player to die.  So, scum will usually have a greater will to live than town. Then, on top of it all, if you did nothing wrong and everybody hates you, of course you get frustrated.  Sure, town will get frustrated too, but not nearly as much as scum does.

Anyway, I think that any setup speculation is useless D1.  We don't have any information and can't really figure out anything because of that.  The only thing we get is possibly outed PRs.

I still like my J Reggie vote.  However, I do like the idea of people self-hammering (when they are definitely getting lynched anyway) in anticipation of a hammer hero.  Not just here, but all the time until we confirm there is no hammer hero alive.

The second is, obviously, after Reggie had stated his plan. But Sudgy was still voting him. Which means Sudgy... thought he was scum? Scum that was willing to self-hammer? That goes against what he said above. Granted there is WIFOM in there, but I don't think that's what Sudgy was suggesting was going on.

I think everybody misinterpreted the self-hammer plan.  It wasn't to self-hammer when possible, it was to self-hammer when they were already guaranteed to be lynched.  The ONLY difference between a normal hammer and his plan was that statistics would be different.  I think Reggie's plan was an excellent one that 100% guarantees that scum could never use a hammer hero.

I have to go now again, I'm planning on working on this game a bit more over the next couple of days.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I'm going to break this down into many different posts, one each for my thoughts on each person in/on/around the Reggie Wagon. If anything stands out that relates to Gkrieg or Cala I'll include it as well - but for the sake of "brevity" (hahaha. If this is what I call brevity, please someone save me from posting anything more detailed) I won't specifically be looking at that here.

Votes Reggie: Jake, faust, Galz, e, Dylan, Eevee, Sudgy, iguana, gkrieg *** LaLight, Jake(2), Sudgy(2), iguana(2), Space, TWM, Mcmc

I separated the wagon based on my own bias - it had peaked at 8 votes with gkrieg before falling back down to 5 prior to LaLight jumping back on  - I see it as two separate wagons. Of note, those who left the wagon when it was at 8 were:

Eevee, Sudgy, TWM & Me.

Starting from the top:

First Person, Jake:

His first vote on Reggie came as his 7th post, and contained nothing but the vote. It was in response to Reggie suggesting we claim flavor names, which as a VT he didn't have (and thus now, post flip, is obvious he was joking). Jake never really explained the vote, but he did agree with O's assessment that "... or I just learned something very interesting" - this reaction suggests that O and Jake are more likely than not to be VT as well.

Much of the day goes by following that and Jake doesn't mention Reggie again until after Reggie has claimed to have a plan. He states that he doesn't want to lynch Reggie based on the cases presented, but would vote him to get the plan out. After that his only other post on the matter is right before mcmc hammers, when he says that he's fine with lynching Jake after the plan reveal.

Jake - given the plan was to self-hammer if at L-1, did you really think that was something scum would be willing to do? Self-voting/hammering is WAY worse for scum than for town, yes? I mean, it wasn't a great plan regardless, but I would be interested to know why you were willing to continue to push the lynch after he posted it.

I have done the same thing many times as scum by saying I will self hammer if need be but I'd rather try to lynch scum. I did push the lynch after he posted it.

[SpaceAnemone]

Argh.. this game is really getting away from me. Hopefully more time tomorrow/Wednesday to read/think/post, but it's waaay after midnight now and I really need sleep.

[Roadrunner7671]

This might be off topic, but I'd bet all my coins in that weird d&d game that whoever got first bid went for the hammer hero, regardless of alignment.

[2.71828.....]

Fourth person: e

Reading e is like reading O or Cuzz to me this game. I just like what the guy is doing/saying. He doesn't really have any Reggie interaction until he joins me on the wagon in post #876. He's moving from TWM to Reggie for what it's worth. The best I can gather from the move choice is:

1) e likes wagons and thinks the creation of them gives us more to analyze later (cant' say I disagree. )
2) e also found the interaction between gkrieg and Reggie to be strange (Yeah.... I kinda read into nothing apparently)

e - as this seems a little relevant towards mcmc's line of questioning right now, what "results" were you referring to in post #876 in regards to your time on the TWM wagon? What did you think of the wagons (both TWM and Reggie), and those on them?

e's post in #1313 is the first reference to votes following me ("I do find it interesting how quickly Galzria's alternative LaLight wagon room off with 3 sheep following quickly behind him.") - As the only vote I control is my own, I would be interested in other people's thoughts on this topic. I felt it happened with Reggie, and I felt it happened with LaLight.

e stays pretty true to the Reggie wagon throughout, while keeping tabs over on the TWM situation. I feel like e could be scum trying to balance two mislynches based on how the town reacts to the two big wagons - but I would feel stronger about this if I saw a TWM town flip. Right now it's pretty weak. Really there isn't anything that jumps out and screams scum to me, and overall I like his line of questioning/playing.

When I voted for TWM I had no intentions of lynching him. Just pushing the wagon a bit further and seeing what would happen. Looking back I did a pretty awful job of it since I only stayed on TWM for like 3 hours. It felt like a long time. And I saw the j Reggie case I was much more interested in pursuing. That being said, my read on TWM got steadily more and more scummy, I just didn't want to leave Reggie until he explained his plan.

Had I posted after the plan came out I think I very well may have abandoned j Reggie for TWM, making me one of the "scummy" (still not quite sure why) wagon jumpers. But I honestly don't know how that would have played out.

That being said, there was nothing special to reply to, I just thought I would give my side of the story. I do like what galzria is doing here, totally does not make him town, but might help him into a would not lynch category for today