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Author Topic: M90: Literature Mafia (Scum wins!)  (Read 159547 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1325 on: January 06, 2017, 06:43:40 pm »

Space is up next.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1326 on: January 06, 2017, 06:44:58 pm »

Aw, crap. No, seriously claiming is a stupid idea!

If we have another PR out there they should definitely stay hidden because scum has an RB.

I'll catch up with the rest and work out what the post of mine that mcmc keeps referring to is, though I'm convinced he's scum and trying to frame me for something.

I just went through your posts and I couldn't find it. It must have been someone else, this is the first I am on a PC to look it up. Also woah omgus?
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1327 on: January 06, 2017, 06:46:29 pm »

I will answer to my two questions:

I saw specific Robz' message that makes me think he's town.

J Reggie was obv!scum for everyone and no one opposed his lynch. But there were always better candidates (i suppose this is what's happening now)

Edit: specific Robz' post.

Found it, it was lalight
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1328 on: January 06, 2017, 06:52:50 pm »

I need to get to a computer to really do some rereads of the people left and more wagon analysis.

Interesting that spaceanemone is the only living member of silverspawns wagon left and eevee was the only scum on it.

Huh.. suddenly LL being the target makes sense! It makes it easy to push a lynch on me because there really was only one scum on silver's wagon.

From my point of view, this is lots of scum points for mcmc. I would vote, but I have to be away for the next ~4 hours, and I don't have the spare brain/time to think about the risks involved just now. Sorry :-(

No votes!  Much risk, many danger, so wow.

Yea weird comment about wanting to vote and kinda OMGUS for me just doing some wagon analysis and completely ignoring my question about their comment on thinking robz is town early on because of a single post.

I didn't respond to your comment because I can't place it at all in my memory as something I said in this game, and I'm confused. Could you point me at it? I've had a quick search through my early game (it was only really D1 that I was townreading Robz all that much), and I can't see anything that seems like what you've described.

PPE 2: Ah, yes, well if it wasn't me then that would explain things. No wonder I was confused!
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1329 on: January 06, 2017, 06:58:16 pm »

Hey space, claim time
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1330 on: January 06, 2017, 07:17:37 pm »

Hello? Now is not the time to hesitate.
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1331 on: January 06, 2017, 07:27:00 pm »

Space is no longer online. This inspires a tremendous lack of confidence.
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1332 on: January 06, 2017, 07:29:40 pm »

Space is no longer online. This inspires a tremendous lack of confidence.
What do you mean by that?
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1333 on: January 06, 2017, 07:39:35 pm »

Space is no longer online. This inspires a tremendous lack of confidence.
What do you mean by that?

Space saw my instructions to claim and chose not to. Possibly to formulate some kind of fake claim. Why hesitate otherwise?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1334 on: January 06, 2017, 07:41:10 pm »

Dammit.

Well, as is probably obvious to scums and not so much to my fellow townies, I'm the real vig. When Robz first claimed, I didn't really want to go head-to-head with him in an argument because he's much more eloquent than I am, and if I die then town loses. I thought that maybe keeping hidden and trying again to shoot Robz in the night would be feasible. He was my target last night, but didn't die, though I did check that if I successfully target a scum and a scum successfully targets me, my kill still dies. That wasn't totally clear from the rule-set, but I checked. I'd thought that even if I was last night's NK target, I could take Robz out with me, because after yesterday's early PR-hunting and scummy response to Eevee's slip initially, I was totally sure he was scum anyway.

The thing is, I don't think they knew exactly who the vig was, but I think it was down to me or WW now as far as they were concerned (Calamitas's D1 looked too VT to me, and I'm reading mcmc as the other scum, though it's possible it's Calamitas and not mcmc). I didn't actually shoot anyone in N2: if you look at my end-of-D2 game you can tell I wasn't really sure who was what at that point... not that surprising in retrospect given that my main town-read from D1 had been Robz. Then in N3 I was blocked, because otherwise Robz would be dead. What nobody has mentioned yet is that scum has a 1-night switch thing, so I think it's entirely possible that having noticed there was no vig action on N2, they decided to use the switch on N3, and then conveniently implied that that meant scum knew who the vig was. Inconveniently for my narrative, it was Calamitas and not Robz who brought up the fact that the lack of vig kill means that scum knows who the vig is.

Anyway, now Robz is still pushing for claims, I think it's clear that the main motivation behind that is to out the real vig, and also to check for a final non-T roll, since scum can't tell the difference between 5 non-T rolls and 6, given that their abilities are the same for both. Sadly, WW's VT role-claim just seems too believable and un-hesitant, so my hesitation has probably already given me away, so there's no point delaying the me-v-Robz head-to-head now.

My threat to vote mcmc earlier was mainly to see what Robz's response was... if he seemed happy to bus aggressively (as I think Robz will generally do), then it might have been okay to stay hidden and play along with his vig claim at least long enough to try to take out the other scum. That's looking less possible now.

As for breadcrumbing, I was really hesitant to do so in the early game. And if Paco's death was due in part to a subtle breadcrumb that I still can't find, then maybe that's evidence that I did the right thing there. I had tried to signal to Calamitas in D3, though! The thing about exact probabilities in the case of Eevee's claim would only make sense if you assume that there was a vig in the game, and nobody was talking about vigs in D3, which was frustrating for me, because I wanted them to be considered, and I really wanted a VT to be the one bringing it up so that I didn't have to give myself away in doing so. Annoyingly, on that one occasion Calamitas was being less exact and theoretical than I'd wanted.

Ah, PPE several already. Robz is getting impatient.

Vote: Robz
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1335 on: January 06, 2017, 07:43:34 pm »

Like that! Vote: Space
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1336 on: January 06, 2017, 07:43:45 pm »

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1337 on: January 06, 2017, 07:46:49 pm »

Looks like no, it would take more letters than we would have left. Can you confirm, Calamitas?
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1338 on: January 06, 2017, 07:48:44 pm »

Two vigs aren't possible since I'm a VT.
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1339 on: January 06, 2017, 07:49:09 pm »

We know BBVKK, so another K or a W that became K wouldn't do it.
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1340 on: January 06, 2017, 07:49:23 pm »

Vote: SpaceAnemone
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1341 on: January 06, 2017, 07:49:31 pm »

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1342 on: January 06, 2017, 07:51:37 pm »

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

They will block and kill me, you lynch Space tomorrow... that doesn't seem like an improvement.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1343 on: January 06, 2017, 07:51:44 pm »

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1344 on: January 06, 2017, 07:54:50 pm »

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

More likely they just block me and kill someone else in the night, leaving us in a worse position.

There must be a third scum, though. And my guess is that that one will be the RB, since it's Robz who's willing to go head-to-head with me, meaning he's more likely to be the strongman, and therefore slightly more expendable.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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Witherweaver

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1345 on: January 06, 2017, 07:56:17 pm »

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

They will block and kill me, you lynch Space tomorrow... that doesn't seem like an improvement.

Isn't space confirmed scum to you?
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1346 on: January 06, 2017, 07:57:15 pm »

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

They will block and kill me, you lynch Space tomorrow... that doesn't seem like an improvement.

Isn't space confirmed scum to you?

Yes, that's why I'm voting for her.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1347 on: January 06, 2017, 07:58:13 pm »

Yeah, no lynch is bad. 

Space, why did you shoot Teamlyle?
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1348 on: January 06, 2017, 07:58:34 pm »

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

More likely they just block me and kill someone else in the night, leaving us in a worse position.

There must be a third scum, though. And my guess is that that one will be the RB, since it's Robz who's willing to go head-to-head with me, meaning he's more likely to be the strongman, and therefore slightly more expendable.
That situation isn't worse then, it's better. We have one fewer player (--> one flip more) and otherwise the situation is unchanged.
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1349 on: January 06, 2017, 07:59:04 pm »

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.
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