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[raerae]

shraeye forgot N2, I'd put a whole bunch of dollars on that. That doesn't make him town though, just confirms he is, in fact, still shraeye.

[Brightgalrs]

The gist is I'm leaning towards LaLight lying, being the last WW or the last Mafia member (other than Eevee). They couldn't claim either of the last unclaimed kills for Night 1 because it would invoke immediate suspicion, so they picked a target (that we know with hindsight) couldn't have been killed.

However, I also don't think it's such a big deal. If shraeye really is the SK, they're likely to just shoot LaLight tonight.

It kinda screws up because mail-mi could very well believe LaLight, and try to cure them instead of shraeye.

Alright, here's my round up for the day:

shraeye's silence on this whole matter is explained by them not fully believing mail-mi's claim, playing it safe basically. Them counterclaiming at this point would be unproductive when they can just kill LaLight tonight, and wait-and-see for tomorrow.

DatSwan could be scum, likely Mafia, but they are definitely Vanilla-ized, so they can't be the roleblocker.

raerae, again, Vanilla-ized, can't be roleblocker. Likely Town though.

I don't think Uncleeurope is a Survivor. It's not clear if they are an Alien or not though. If they are, we basically should treat them as a survivor, lynching them last. If they are Mafia (or WW), they are likely the roleblocker, so they should be the "back up" kill if Eevee turns up as anything but Mafia roleblocker.

Galzria is likely dead tonight, no stopping that. Could get lucky with a bystander effect thing.

mail-mi might be safe tonight, especially with Galzria likely about to have free reign to investigate, attracting the kills. And I'd like to think the real SK wouldn't shoot them, leaving their options open.

But yeah, I think my vote is still on Eevee (reasons expressed in earlier posts). The roleblocker blocks several good paths, regardless of who's who.

[Brightgalrs]

But yeah, I think my vote is still on Eevee (reasons expressed in earlier posts). The roleblocker blocks several good paths, regardless of who's who.

I'm talking about a metaphorical vote, by the way. Still one or two things to do before the Day ends.

shraeye forgot N2, I'd put a whole bunch of dollars on that. That doesn't make him town though, just confirms he is, in fact, still shraeye.

Missing a kill, even as a SK, I find to be believable. 24 hour isn't really that long, especially if you only find out about Night several hours into it.
What makes me suspicious is the pandering (where they said they were deciding between MiX and Space, when their suspicious-ness wasn't revealed until day(s) in the future).


One last thing regarding LaLight, if we imagine they are non-SK scum. Imagine mail-mi that tries to cure LaLight tonight, but it fails because LaLight isn't actually a SK. It's possible that could LaLight claim the next Day that were cured, without mail-mi have any way of checking.
Mod question: Are Psychiatrists told if their action successfully turns a SK in a Townie?

[Brightgalrs]

Oh, and going back reading the last page(s) in more detail, I'm now leaning even more towards DatSwan being the last Mafia (but again, they are certainly Vanilla-ized).

Eevee's suspicion of DatSwan, and subsequent voting, is a last minute attempt to bus them to Victory.

Votes should be 3 on Eevee (Galzria, LaLight, DwaSwan) and 1 on Datswan (Eevee). 5 to lynch. Deadline in like 2 days or something.

[raerae]

I'd still like an answer for why shraeye should have targeted you.

[Brightgalrs]

I'd still like an answer for why shraeye should have targeted you.

Because their NK theory has me down as a SK:

My NK theory was: there have only ever been me, Werewolf, Mafia, Bright (SK) shooting.  All 4 night 1, missing 2 night 2 (I forgot and somebody shot SK-Bright, all 4 night 3.

Yet they targeted Didds on Night 3. ~1/4 chance to hit Mafia (blindfiring at the people who voted for me on Day 3), vs. shoot who you think is the SK.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Mod question: Are Psychiatrists told if their action successfully turns a SK in a Townie?

No

[Brightgalrs]

Yet they targeted Didds on Night 3. ~1/4 chance to hit Mafia (blindfiring at the people who voted for me on Day 3), vs. shoot who you think is the SK.

And if it wasn't clear from my last few posts, I don't care about why this happened anymore. Either they're a Vigilante, in which case, hooray, or they're a SK, in which case there is a avenue for them to be useful to us, and become a Townie.

[Brightgalrs]

Mod question: Are Psychiatrists told if their action successfully turns a SK in a Townie?

No

Okay, so there's a bit more danger later down the road, but nothing I've said above changes.

[shraeye]

The gist is I'm leaning towards LaLight lying, being the last WW or the last Mafia member (other than Eevee). They couldn't claim either of the last unclaimed kills for Night 1 because it would invoke immediate suspicion, so they picked a target (that we know with hindsight) couldn't have been killed.

However, I also don't think it's such a big deal. If shraeye really is the SK, they're likely to just shoot LaLight tonight.

It kinda screws up because mail-mi could very well believe LaLight, and try to cure them instead of shraeye.

Alright, here's my round up for the day:

shraeye's silence on this whole matter is explained by them not fully believing mail-mi's claim, playing it safe basically. Them counterclaiming at this point would be unproductive when they can just kill LaLight tonight, and wait-and-see for tomorrow.

Are you even trying to make sense anymore?

Why would LaLight lie about his targets?
Did you even read my posts where I put mailmi in the 100% category and made night plans based off of that?
How in the good green earth is SK counterclaiming a SK even an option if there are 4 possible SK roles?

I'd still like an answer for why shraeye should have targeted you.

Because their NK theory has me down as a SK:

How in the world could I have acted Night 3 on a theory that I made on Day 4 once I saw how many kills there were?

But maybe yeah, even if I was a full Vigilante, I'd claim the moment I shot someone, just like I did in this game.

Why would a full Vig reveal themselves the moment they shoot anyone, when instead they could just keep shooting for scum?

And... there is actually surprisingly little to go on.

Why do you keep throwing line after line of terrible-assumption suspicion at me if you agree there's not much to go on?

But why shoot randomly? It's not like it was a Night start, there was a Day to go on.

At what point during Day1 did my level of engagement lead you to believe I had any reads at all?
When I said "hey we should just effing random lynch", did you think I just threw that out there for fun?

I was going to shoot for Glooble's potential partners on night 2, but also wanted to shoot at MiX and Space. Wanted to reread to see which of those two was more likely Glooble-partner, and forgot to shoot in time.

But why these two? This seems like you are trying to pander to us. Remember, all you would've had to go on was Day 1, there was no faust reveal, and Space didn't even talk that much.

Why did you forget that Night 2 happens after Day 2?
Why did you forget that faust's flip happened before Mix was suspected?
Why did you know that MiX was enough of a suspect that me picking him was "pandering", but not remember enough to know that MiX was a suspect BECAUSE of how he acted with the faust lynch?

My NK theory was: there have only ever been me, Werewolf, Mafia, Bright (SK) shooting.  All 4 night 1, missing 2 night 2 (I forgot and somebody shot SK-Bright, all 4 night 3.

But I haven't gone back to my drawing board after mail-mi's claim.

But shouldn't you?
If I was Vanillaized on Night 2 by mail-mi, then there's no way I could've killed anyone on last night.
And if you think mail-mi is lying, then surely I'm not a Serial Killer at all, I'd be a WW or Mafia and in his faction. But then you can't point to me to explain last night 4th kill. So it'd be Alien's kill, Werewolf PGO, Parrot, etc.

Why do you think I'm saying "I will not reconsider", when I said "I haven't had a chance to review or reanalyze the claim that happened just a few moments ago"?
Why are you saying "shraeye thinks mail-mi is lying"?

Also why did you never shoot me?

WHEN WOULD I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO SHOOT YOU?




I don't even want answers to these questions.

[shraeye]

our kid has been throwing insane tantrums for the last 2 weeks, and he's at it 150% right now.  It is NOT the time to come at me, and it is NOT THE TIME to come at me with this level of inaccuracy.

[Brightgalrs]

I appreciate the responses shraeye.

[Galzria]

WHEN WOULD I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO SHOOT YOU?

You could’ve shot him N1, N2 or N3. 😁

[raerae]

People I believe in order from most belief to lying liarsons.

1) LL
2) mail-mi
3) Galz
4) shraeye
5) DatSwan
6) Eddie
7) Eevee
Bright

Anybody wants to convince me not to vote for Bright, now's your chance.

[raerae]

People I believe in order from most belief to lying liarsons.

1) LL
2) mail-mi
3) Galz
4) shraeye
5) DatSwan
6) Eddie
7) Eevee
Bright

Anybody wants to convince me not to vote for Bright, now's your chance.

You know what?  I hate the sunglasses smiley.  I said it.

[shraeye]

WHEN WOULD I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO SHOOT YOU?

You could’ve shot him N1, N2 or N3. 😁

I appreciate your dedication to technicalities

[Brightgalrs]

Anybody wants to convince me not to vote for Bright, now's your chance.

Because your vote shouldn't depend solely on who you think is lying, you should also consider the damage they could do to the town. So even if your tunnel vision thinks I'm lying, you'll still vote for Eevee. Doubly so if it's to avoid a No Lynch.

2) mail-mi

Bright

Also, you contradict yourself.

[Galzria]

Anybody wants to convince me not to vote for Bright, now's your chance.

Because your vote shouldn't depend solely on who you think is lying, you should also consider the damage they could do to the town. So even if your tunnel vision thinks I'm lying, you'll still vote for Eevee. Doubly so if it's to avoid a No Lynch.

2) mail-mi

Bright

Also, you contradict yourself.

Not really. You could be Mafia or WW or hell, not as likely, Alien.

N1 there were 4 kills: While the claimed SK claimed to have shot Space, this may or may not be true. And there are other ways for a fourth kill to happen outside of your claimed 1-shot Vig.

That’s the only night that doesn’t fit super cleanly with you not being what you’ve claimed. N2 & N3 you could very easily be team!scum and nothing would really change.

[Eevee]

Vote: Bright

[raerae]

Anybody wants to convince me not to vote for Bright, now's your chance.

Because your vote shouldn't depend solely on who you think is lying, you should also consider the damage they could do to the town. So even if your tunnel vision thinks I'm lying, you'll still vote for Eevee. Doubly so if it's to avoid a No Lynch.

2) mail-mi

Bright

Also, you contradict yourself.

"Should." 

Vote: Bright

[mail-mi]

I think bright is town. Inaccurate town, but town.

I should place my vote. I think vote: eevee is best (that's L-1 I believe) though I could also go with DatSwan.

I'm pretty much 100% with Shraeye's analysis, and if he is sk then I can heal him.

[raerae]

I think bright is town. Inaccurate town, but town.

I should place my vote. I think vote: eevee is best (that's L-1 I believe) though I could also go with DatSwan.

I'm pretty much 100% with Shraeye's analysis, and if he is sk then I can heal him.

If you think Eevee is a roleblocker then it isn't it 110% possible he targeted you the night you targeted Bright?

[raerae]

I think bright is town. Inaccurate town, but town.

I should place my vote. I think vote: eevee is best (that's L-1 I believe) though I could also go with DatSwan.

I'm pretty much 100% with Shraeye's analysis, and if he is sk then I can heal him.

If you think Eevee is a roleblocker then it isn't it 110% possible he targeted you the night you targeted Bright?

Or does your townread go further than you targeting him?  If you've already explained it just send me in the right direction.

[Brightgalrs]

Not really. You could be Mafia or WW or hell, not as likely, Alien.

I assume your talking about the contradiction thing. Yes, that must be what raerae meant.

N1 there were 4 kills: While the claimed SK claimed to have shot Space, this may or may not be true. And there are other ways for a fourth kill to happen outside of your claimed 1-shot Vig.

I'm not sure I follow what your saying here. I definitely see that LaLight may have not actually shot (and missed) Space, instead shooting either Glooble or Archetype, that's my working theory after-all.

But what fourth kill are we talking about? My kill, sudgy's death? So your saying that I could've claimed the WW or Mafia's kill as my one-shot kill, right? Yes that's entirely possible.
But what are the other ways you talk about, how is the 4th kill explained otherwise? The Alien's kill? Yeah, that's possible.

I think bright is town. Inaccurate town, but town.

Well, good. But to defend myself, I'm not inaccurate if even I admit I could be inaccurate and more importantly it won't affect any outcomes.

I should place my vote. I think vote: eevee is best (that's L-1 I believe) though I could also go with DatSwan.

I'm pretty much 100% with Shraeye's analysis, and if he is sk then I can heal him.

This is fine. I was waiting for you to say 100% who you would target tonight, just in case you snuff it and there's some question of who you targeted.

If you think Eevee is a roleblocker then it isn't it 110% possible he targeted you the night you targeted Bright?

Wait, so you DO still think I'm a Serial Killer? raerae, Galz claimed that he was roleblocked on Night 2. mail-mi used his ability on me Night 2. That doesn't work.


I could hammer now! But I'll wait like 15 mins or something.

[raerae]

If you think Eevee is a roleblocker then it isn't it 110% possible he targeted you the night you targeted Bright?

Wait, so you DO still think I'm a Serial Killer? raerae, Galz claimed that he was roleblocked on Night 2. mail-mi used his ability on me Night 2. That doesn't work.


I could hammer now! But I'll wait like 15 mins or something.

No.  I've never thought you were SK.  And you keep thinking I believe the same things you do.  I don't.  Let me very clearly state that I do not think like you do and your beliefs do not match mine.