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[Galzria]

My information in no means confirms Bright isn't scum. And I will not be claiming before he gets lynched if that is the case because he still might be scum. He just has a slightly higher chance of being town.

I agree with Joseph's assessment that bright and space are not on the same team.

^^this is also why I'm voting space instead of bright

From my perspective, the scumslip is more evidence than this though, which is why I'm voting bright

Can you explain the "scumslip"? I'm either not getting it or not remembering it.

The slip, as it’s being suggested, is that Bright ran all their numbers and simulations, discounting certain setups as impossible/unlikely as to narrow the remainder of the possibilities, yet didn’t discount setups that don’t include a Vig.

It’s kind of like the opposite of making a scum to chum list and not including yourself as the chummiest.

[SpaceAnemone]

Sorry folks.. I'm really under the weather. Off work sick, didn't even emerge from bed till well into the afternoon. Now curled up on the sofa with tissues and lemsip, trying to stay hydrated. I'll try to post slowly and make sense.

[SpaceAnemone]

My information in no means confirms Bright isn't scum. And I will not be claiming before he gets lynched if that is the case because he still might be scum. He just has a slightly higher chance of being town.

I agree with Joseph's assessment that bright and space are not on the same team.

^^this is also why I'm voting space instead of bright

From my perspective, the scumslip is more evidence than this though, which is why I'm voting bright

Can you explain the "scumslip"? I'm either not getting it or not remembering it.

The slip, as it’s being suggested, is that Bright ran all their numbers and simulations, discounting certain setups as impossible/unlikely as to narrow the remainder of the possibilities, yet didn’t discount setups that don’t include a Vig.

It’s kind of like the opposite of making a scum to chum list and not including yourself as the chummiest.

It's slightly more than, really. Running up a simulator like the one he describes takes time, and involves detailed thinking about the problem. You have to go through the game in a way that lets you encode it precisely so you can get your computer script to do exactly the right thing (computers are really stupid on their own...).

As a bit of background for the non-computery people, the way the script works (making minor assumptions for how I'd have done it, but he seems to have gone down more or less the same lines as I would have) is that it randomly proposes a lot of different possible games -- like hundreds of thousands of them -- based on the way ADK would have initially randomised the setup. Then it takes those games, and looks at which ones would have met the "minimum playable configuration" that ADK gave us. Then which ones would have allowed for the four NKs, at my prompting, etc. The (now much smaller) set of possible game states that this leaves him with is the thing he averages over to look at there being e.g. an average of 3.4 werewolves or whatever. That average is taken over all the "allowable" games after the "not possible" ones have been filtered away.

Now the scumslip happens because he's a claimed one-shot vig, and yet he left lots of possible game rolls with no one-shot vig in the "allowable" pot. Note that this lack of inclusion of this own claimed role is in spite of him having openly claimed it in-thread, so it's not just a tactic of avoiding giving himself away (which is something I've had to do as a PR in the Asher9++ setups when making thread-safe lists of possible roles and likelihoods). This omission is also in spite of the fact he's already going to the bother of counting up how many killing roles are present because of the thing I prompted him to do where he got rid of game states that didn't allow for the four NKs we saw on N1. And this could really make a bit difference to the likelihood of there being more "third party" factions, so it's really bad modelling to neglect an effect of that size.

[EFHW]

Who owned up to a scumslip? 

Why/when was sudgy lying?

I feel like I'm not in the same page as all those last posts

Bright owned up to his mistake and wants that to serve as a defense.

sudgy said he was Miller when he wasn't. No idea why.

[shraeye]

Ok, then this is the same thing that I already thought was totally non-alignment indicative.  It still is.  Carry on

[WestCoastDidds]

Space, I hope you feel better soon!

[WestCoastDidds]

Okay, folks we have 12 hours

WCD count 3.1

SpaceAnemone (5): DatSwan, LaLight,, shraeye, Uncleurope, pubby
Brightgalrs (6): raerae, EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Joseph2302, Eevee, WestCoastDidds
EFHW (1): mail-mi,
pubby (1): Brightgalrs

Not Voting (1): Galzria

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day Three begins now and ends at 6:00 UTC 11/29/2019.

[raerae]

Okay, folks we have 12 hours

WCD count 3.1

SpaceAnemone (5): DatSwan, LaLight,, shraeye, Uncleurope, pubby
Brightgalrs (6): raerae, EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Joseph2302, Eevee, WestCoastDidds
EFHW (1): mail-mi,
pubby (1): Brightgalrs

Not Voting (1): Galzria

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day Three begins now and ends at 6:00 UTC 11/29/2019.

Galz not voting seems exceptionally strange. 

Galz, wanna play?

[mail-mi]

Okay, folks we have 12 hours

WCD count 3.1

SpaceAnemone (5): DatSwan, LaLight,, shraeye, Uncleurope, pubby
Brightgalrs (6): raerae, EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Joseph2302, Eevee, WestCoastDidds
EFHW (1): mail-mi,
pubby (1): Brightgalrs

Not Voting (1): Galzria

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day Three begins now and ends at 6:00 UTC 11/29/2019.

I think I should be on Space. So vote: space

[WestCoastDidds]

Just for staying current...

WCD count 3.2

SpaceAnemone (6): DatSwan, LaLight,, shraeye, Uncleurope, pubby, mail-mi
Brightgalrs (6): raerae, EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Joseph2302, Eevee, WestCoastDidds
pubby (1): Brightgalrs

Not Voting (1): Galzria


With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day Three begins now and ends at 6:00 UTC 11/29/2019. (That’s 1 am forum time)

[SpaceAnemone]

Okay, folks we have 12 hours

WCD count 3.1

SpaceAnemone (5): DatSwan, LaLight,, shraeye, Uncleurope, pubby
Brightgalrs (6): raerae, EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Joseph2302, Eevee, WestCoastDidds
EFHW (1): mail-mi,
pubby (1): Brightgalrs

Not Voting (1): Galzria

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day Three begins now and ends at 6:00 UTC 11/29/2019.

I think I should be on Space. So vote: space

I just ran an auto-count, and it had you in the same place as Didd's count.

Regardless, I'm now at L-2, and Bright is not voting for me, which seems odd unless he's trying not to incriminate himself because he knows I'm not going to flip scum. Well, from his PoV not his faction at least!).

Anyway, pointing this out because if he votes me I'm QH-able :-(

And now I'm going to be offline for a bit because friends have brought over dinner :-)

[Swowl]

I need to ponder for a moment. Will be back with plenty time, just don’t want hammer until i have a sec to think something through.

[shraeye]

Anyway, pointing this out because if he votes me I'm QH-able :-(

Or just regular hammerable.  Trying to scare people away by using Quickhammer-language isn't necessary.

[Galzria]

I don’t believe scum!team Bright opens D2 with the claim he did, in the way he did. He may be SK that’s now biding his time, but if that’s the case I’m not as concerned about lynching him now - we actually need scum to shoot scum at night to help balance and catch us up.

I’m also not the largest fan of Space’s argument here. I get where they’re coming from, but as nobody but Bright knows Bright’s alignment (supposedly), he would actually be doing the thread a disservice to exclude scenarios where he isn’t what he claims. While he may be able to make the assumption that he’s Town, we cannot - so when presenting numbers to the group at large, it’s as Shraeye said - completely NAI. Has he done it the other way, Space could’ve argued that his numbers weren’t valid to the majority of players because we don’t know his alignment.

That brings me to vote: Space. Not only do I disagree with their argument, I think making it at all is an attempt to try and spin something as scummy that’s just isn’t - and THAT, to me, is scummy.

[shraeye]

I don’t believe scum!team Bright opens D2 with the claim he did, in the way he did. He may be SK that’s now biding his time, but if that’s the case I’m not as concerned about lynching him now - we actually need scum to shoot scum at night to help balance and catch us up.

I’m also not the largest fan of Space’s argument here. I get where they’re coming from, but as nobody but Bright knows Bright’s alignment (supposedly), he would actually be doing the thread a disservice to exclude scenarios where he isn’t what he claims. While he may be able to make the assumption that he’s Town, we cannot - so when presenting numbers to the group at large, it’s as Shraeye said - completely NAI. Has he done it the other way, Space could’ve argued that his numbers weren’t valid to the majority of players because we don’t know his alignment.

That brings me to vote: Space. Not only do I disagree with their argument, I think making it at all is an attempt to try and spin something as scummy that’s just isn’t - and THAT, to me, is scummy.

What he said.

[raerae]

Screw it, I haven't had a hammer in a while.

Vote: Space

[Joseph2302]

Screw it, I haven't had a hammer in a while.

Vote: Space

I wanted a hammer....


Space, are you actually town?

[raerae]

Screw it, I haven't had a hammer in a while.

Vote: Space

I wanted a hammer....


Space, are you actually town?

Double hammer?  We can share!

[WestCoastDidds]

Happy Thanksgiving, friends. I love all your goofy faces!

[Swowl]

happy turkey day all..


Should we of not given Space a chance to claim? Just seeing as if they are town... knowing space they kind of have to have some result. That was probz a little quick on the hammer there, but I don't think it was skummy... just potentially quicker than needed.

I should of unvoted earlier to be safe. That was dumb of me.

[A Drowned Kernel]

THREAD LOCKED

[A Drowned Kernel]

SpaceAnemone has been lynched! They were a Mafia Compulsive Hider!

Final Vote Count

SpaceAnemone (8): DatSwan, LaLight, shraeye, Uncleeurope, pubby, mail-mi, Galzria, raerae
Brightgalrs (5): EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Joseph2302, Eevee, WestCoastDidds
pubby (1): Brightgalrs

With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

Night Three will have a slightly longer deadline due to me traveling. It begins now and ends at 4:00 UTC 11/30

[A Drowned Kernel]

DAY FOUR START

pubby has been killed! He was a Werewolf!
Joseph2302 has been killed! He was a Town One-Shot Governor!
WestCoastDidds has been killed! She was a Town Private Investigator!
EFHW has been killed! She was a Town Vanilla Cop!

Not Voting (9): DatSwan, Brightgalrs, mail-mi, Uncleeurope, Galzria, shraeye, LaLight, Eevee, raerae

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day Four begins now and ends at 4:00 UTC 12/6/2019.

[Brightgalrs]

Still an Alien left.

Counts for Day 3:

Player	Posts	Tokens
Brightgalrs	35	3349
SpaceAnemone	19	3014
DatSwan	20	2750
raerae	31	992
WestCoastDidds	22	971
shraeye	21	720
Joseph2302	35	596
Uncleeurope	16	555
Galzria	5	470
LaLight	25	462
EFHW	19	346
mail-mi	13	334
Eevee	6	269
pubby	5	216

[Galzria]

Still blocked last night. No result again.

Is the existence of an Alien the only way we could have 4 kills last night? Mafia, WW, Alien, SK?

9 alive:

1 Alien
1-2 Mafia
0-1 Werewolves
1 SK

4-6 Town (or other third party non-killing faction)

Is that accurate?