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[jotheonah]

didn't sudgy say that if we had a town time traveling role blocker, that person could save him if he was weak?

[ashersky]

If Walrus is a scum role blocker then why not just block sudgy's role?

That's a nice hypothetical and all, but you can do that with any role in the universe and any player in the game.  What purpose does it serve?

It's like "hey, X died last night.  If Y was a JK, why not jail X?"  But that doesn't really say a thing about Y, right?  I mean, it's just a hypothetical.

[jotheonah]

isn't the most likely explanation that scum targeted sudgy?

And if scum targeted sudgy, then the fact that he was targeting Walrus tells us nothing.

[ashersky]

isn't the most likely explanation that scum targeted sudgy?

And if scum targeted sudgy, then the fact that he was targeting Walrus tells us nothing.

Why is that most likely?

[ashersky]

And where's Faust with his plan for ensuring sudgy's plan worked?  He was all about it D1.

[jotheonah]

isn't the most likely explanation that scum targeted sudgy?

And if scum targeted sudgy, then the fact that he was targeting Walrus tells us nothing.

Why is that most likely?

because it doesn't rely on any special powers

[2.71828.....]

came back, caught up, and now vote: joth

[2.71828.....]

You saw how the town was acting and figured no lynch was a better bet. Remember, to accomplish a no lynch all you ha to do was stall us out.

You didn't have much time to look through the day's posts and build a case on xeiron. So you went with a case that saved your partner and didn't require time for research.

Let me defend Yuma a bit.

1) If I want town to stall out, I don't vote no lynch, I vote for xeiron who makes it even 4-4-4 instead of pursuing a no lynch.  confusion of candidates is better than pushing a whole new idea
2) Yuma had been following the game.  As he mentioned, he had been posting in the spectator qt and such (even voted jimmmmm early if I remember what he said correctly) so he did not necessarily need extra time to do research

that is just a response to the specific quote from above.

[2.71828.....]

I just feel sure that yuma is scum. I have no extra information. But he is acting scummy. A scum narrative explains his behavior. I also expect scum!Galzria to lurk and replace moreso than I would expect town!Galzria too. Or, more accurately, if Galzria was in a game and he was too busy to play out day 1, and he was town, and he thought he was going to survive on his rep, he might be ok just lurking it, contributing whatever happened to pop into his head, and committing to play harder the next day.

Now what if Galzria is scum and he doesn't have time to play day 1? Galz carefully plans his scum play, I think maybe he decided if he couldn't play scum up to his usual standard he would replace out, especially if his partners were taking heat and he felt like he needed to save them. So he replaces. Yuma suddenly finds himself in a scum team in a terrible position, and not much time left on the clock, so he springs into action with a half-baked plan to save his partners day 1 and to work out day 2 later. It makes sense to me.

And what does he do day 2, when we have a slam-dunk lynch on Walrus based on the only kind of investigative result we have? immediately tries to divert us from it. yuma, why shouldn't we lynch Walrus?

So maybe Walrus got roleblocked and NK'd and Walrus isn't scum. Or maybe scum got roleblocked and Walrus is scum. Or maybe sudgy changed his mind and didn't target Walrus and Walrus did target scum. But Occam's razor to me, especially given Walrus's scummy claim yesterday, is that Walrus is scum.

I totally disagree with this entire post.  Every sentence.  I can go through sentence by sentence if people want me to, but it is so off the wall that I don't think I need to.

[jotheonah]

Ok, you disagree with me? but I'm really a better lynch than Walrus?

[jotheonah]

1) If I want town to stall out, I don't vote no lynch, I vote for xeiron who makes it even 4-4-4 instead of pursuing a no lynch.  confusion of candidates is better than pushing a whole new idea

No. If you're trying to stall out, you want an idea that is so new, but also viable, that it makes everyone go "huh" and maybe gets people who have already voted to remove their votes. No lynch does that.

[2.71828.....]

Ok, you disagree with me? but I'm really a better lynch than Walrus?

yes.  I do not trust the sudgy result.  I believe the Walrus claim.  Had we had multiple NKs (sudgy being one of them) then I would have given much more credence to the sudgy result.  However, I do not have any special information like Ashersky has or you implied that you did before you retracted what you said after the reread.  So until I hear that special information I am not ready to lynch Walrus.  At all. 

[Voltaire]

Vote Count 2.3

jotheonah (3): nkirbit, yuma, 2.71828.....
Walrus (2): ashersky, jotheonah

Not voting (6): EFHW, faust, Jimmmmm, pingpongsam, Walrus, xeiron

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

D2 ends on Monday, January 6 at noon forum time

[pingpongsam]

Well, I just caught up and well, whew...

So, surely people did things last night. And surely to god, since sudgy said he was going to do something somebody watched him, right? I mean his plan was just as easily a scum ploy if he were alive today.
As to watching sudgy, if not, why not and if so, why not tell?

I'm asking in general not to get a possible watcher to out themselves. I just can't think of a solid reason why it played out this way.

That said, I did receive some information last night that suggests an attempt to kill someone failed. That information supports the notion that sudgy died from his weak modifier as opposed to being the one killed unless there are multiple killing abilities occurring at night.

[yuma]

I also expect scum!Galzria to lurk and replace moreso than I would expect town!Galzria too. Or, more accurately, if Galzria was in a game and he was too busy to play out day 1, and he was town, and he thought he was going to survive on his rep, he might be ok just lurking it, contributing whatever happened to pop into his head, and committing to play harder the next day.

Now what if Galzria is scum and he doesn't have time to play day 1? Galz carefully plans his scum play, I think maybe he decided if he couldn't play scum up to his usual standard he would replace out, especially if his partners were taking heat and he felt like he needed to save them. So he replaces.

Timeout

I glossed over this part in reading through the first time, but I think it is extremely unfair to Galz and a gross misrepresentation of what actually happened...

I don't think Galz would stoop to /outing because he thought his team was going to take a hit day1 and that he was going to lose... like this is an extremely low blow joth to a guy who has been a solid part of this community and through all of it has played with honesty and integrity--he is a mod here for pete's sake!--and I don't like it and won't stand for it.

As for what actually happened, it is clear to me that Galz' didn't actually /out, but rather that he was replaced because he wasn't around. Look at how the replacement went down, he was prodded, didn't post was completely absent from the forums for days from December 23 to December 27 if you look at his post history...

Add to this that I know that this isn't what happened as I know Galz's alignment, but even if Galz were scum I can't imagine him doing this and cannot believe that you would consider this as a possibility.

I felt you were getting a little too personal before in regard to me, but this is an emotional game and I can handle it and you shouldn't really change how you are approaching the game toward me. I just wanted you to answer my questions. But this sort of thinking goes too far regardless of my alignment or yours! We have to respect that we are assuming here that people are being honest. If we stop doing that this whole community falls apart, we have to have some level of trust, otherwise we can't play the game.

[jotheonah]

Well, if you want to strike that case from the record, as it were, that's fine.

I didn't mean to disparage Galzria, in fact in my eyes it reflects well on him -- either way, lurking hurts his team, but as scum lurking hurts his team a lot more so he did what he thought was best for them. If I were his team mate, I would respect that decision.

People have to out some times it happens, and I didn't mean to make that my case in the game. You asked for a narrative, so I spun the most logical one I could come up with based on what I believe to be true.

That's as much as I want to talk about it here because there are really no time outs but we can always pick it up after the game's over.

But more important is what scum!yuma would do if he replaced into a game and found his team in deep trouble.

[yuma]

And I hope I didn't come on too strong there joth. I am not upset or mad or anything like that, but rather just really uncomfortable with having anyone use that sort of logic in this sort of game, especially someone who can't currently defend themselves... and while I know that Galz doesn't necessarily need me to defend him if the roles were reversed I would be quite shocked and dismayed to see that people thought me capable of something like that.

[yuma]

But more important is what scum!yuma would do if he replaced into a game and found his team in deep trouble.

sure that is the issue at hand and what I am more comfortable discussing

[jotheonah]

If you think I said Galz replaced out because he was losing, then I didn't communicate well. I think Galz replaced out for IRL reasons, but I think he might have just lurked it out if he were town. Maybe that's silly though. My case isn't primarily based on Galz's actions, which are a null tell as far as I'm concerned. It is based on yuma's consistently scummy behavior.

[chairs]

On a serious note, why should we vote Walrus?

I think Sudgy's plan worked.

Do you have any special information that would lead you to believe that, or is it more of a gut feeling?

Gut feeling.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

I am stuck in the Atlanta airport for the next 10 to infinity hours. I am on my phone, disheveled, tired, and generally pissed. So if you are a human being or an airplane there's a good chance I hate you right now.

Well, obviously it's hard to see from an outsider's perspective, but it's pretty clear to me that scum shot sudgy last night just so they could pin it on whomever got targeted. That's such a cute scum thing to do. That's my Occam's Razor of what happened last night, based on my own knowledge of course. Also, as others have said, look at how things went down--why would I have thrown attention on Arch if I were flailing scum? Yes I know, busing etc., but are we *really* still talking about Occam's Razor at that point? The simplest scenario is he was scum, and I am not.

It is unfortunate that sudgy targeted me, because I am a time traveling roleblocker (for odd nights anyway) that could have theoretically saved him. Oh well. I guess I will try to go back at some point and block the kill itself.

I think that everyone should take a good, hard look at everyone who was not on Arch's lynch at the end of D1. I feel confident there is at least one scumball there. For now I will vote: ashersky -- I don't like the way he's come out against me here and he seems like exactly the type who could and would engineer my version of the Occam's Razor scenario. PPS also deserves some scrutiny I think.

jotheonah is interesting...I did find him scummish D1, and still do I think. I will do rereads on him, yuma, and others when I get access to a proper computer and the comforts of home.

[nkirbit]

Heck, I don't even know if a third party exists, so if I have evidence that someone isn't mafia, I'm content to not lynch them at this point in the game.

Can you please share the evidence you have that walrus isn't mafia?

Gladly.  We know that Archetype was mafia from his flip.  So, I'm going to go back and look at the interactions between Archetype and Walrus, and see what I can learn!

Vote Count 1.10

Archetype (1): Jimmmmm
xeiron (3): Archetype, sudgy, 2.7...
Galzria (1): chairs
Walrus (4): faust, jotheonah, nkirbit, ashersky
jotheonah (1): Walrus
ashersky (1): xeiron

Not voting (3): EFHW, Galzria, pingpongsam

The above is the vote count at the point of Walrus' claim.

Well, I really didn want to have to claim today, unlike some of our more eagle claimants. But it looks like I'm defaulting to a lynch and this might be my last chance todo so. So here's some of it:

I am River Song. I have several cool powders including the ability to time travel.
her not have to say more than that, but I will if I have to.

Would I like to joina larger wagon? Like the one on me? No thanks. On xeiron? He's a town read for me and two of my scumreads are currently a boarded. I am willing to join Jimmmmm and vote: Archetype though. I'm not sure what I think about a Galz lynch...I guess it's better than nothing?

It is extremely drunk and I am fairly late. I will probably be awake for another half hour or so if you ave questioned. Ill be around tomorrow morning as well.

And here we have Walrus' claim.  Whether you believe it or not, you'll notice that his very first action after claiming is to vote for Archetype.  Archetype has been under a little suspicion throughout the day, but wasn't one of the leading wagons.  Walrus voting for Archetype directly caused him to be a viable lynch candidate.  I'm confident that without Walrus' vote, Archetype does not get lynched.. it was his vote that even made me go back and re-read Arch, and then push heavily for his lynch.  I probably wouldn't have done that without Walrus' vote.

Now, I know that bussing is a thing, but does scum really bus there in that way?  I just don't buy it.  Even if Walrus manages to get the lynch off of him, he's probably going to remain one of our prime suspects going forward (as he is today).  Yeah, maybe someone else will get lynched.. but why doesn't Walrus vote elsewhere.  Or at the least no vote?  If it's a deflection technique, does he really deflect on his teammate at that point?  No way.  It's just too risky.  It could easily get Archetype lynched day1, and him lynched day2... it's just suicide.

Here! Vote: Walrus at this stage I don't believe Walrus' claim. I'm pretty sure he's just a Time Traveling Roleblocker and is faking the Vig part.


That is L-1

Here we have Archetype pushing Walrus to L-1.  Sure, I guess this could come from a scum teammate, but why?  Are Walrus and Archetype busing each other?  It's possible, but it's either a series of incredibly poor decision making by scum teammates, or just comes from the fact that they're not scum teammates.  I just believe it's the second, strongly.

Furthermore, I just don't believe that our largest wagons day1 were both on scum.  Just no way.  Scum doesn't let that happen.

Now, I acknowledge that it's possible for Walrus to be a SK or something else like that, but I still don't want to lynch him.  I'd rather lynch a player with a chance of flipping either mafia or a potential third party, because it's just so much more likely to happen.

I just think that if a player doesn't make sense as mafia, we shouldn't be lynching them, and everything that happened between Walrus and Archetype indicates to me that they weren't teammates.  So I absolutely will not be considering Walrus as a potential lynch today without stronger evidence, because his interactions with Archetype are pretty good evidence to me that he isn't a member of the mafia.

[nkirbit]

In clue, the hider died if they hid behind a vigilante, right?  I looked up hider on mafia scum, and there's no such description of hiding behind a vig leading to a death, but it was in clue.

Is it possible that we have the same condition here.  Walrus claimed half vigilante... maybe Sudgy died because he hid behind a Vigilante?  Is that possible?

[jotheonah]

In clue, the hider died if they hid behind a vigilante, right?  I looked up hider on mafia scum, and there's no such description of hiding behind a vig leading to a death, but it was in clue.

Is it possible that we have the same condition here.  Walrus claimed half vigilante... maybe Sudgy died because he hid behind a Vigilante?  Is that possible?

sudgy didn't flip hider. he flipped doctor.

[nkirbit]

The only "result" we have (claimed) is sudgy's death from (presumably) targeting Walrus.

I think there are good odds it is exactly how it looks -- weak doctor targeted scum.

I don't get the "well, he might be the SK so let's leave him alive" thing that nkirbit is selling.

This is certainly a gross exaggeration.  I don't think he's the SK.  I think he's town.  I acknowledge that it's possible he's an SK, but I really do believe that he isn't mafia.

Also, I really don't know what you're claiming.  You can claim to know why we didn't have NKs elsewhere than Sudgy, but not be sure that Sudgy wasn't NKed.  Did you make him a lightning rod or something?

Don't claim unless you want to, but I sure am not comfortable lynching Walrus right now.  I think it's more likely that you are scum than he is.