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[yuma]

You saw how the town was acting and figured no lynch was a better bet. Remember, to accomplish a no lynch all you ha to do was stall us out.

You didn't have much time to look through the day's posts and build a case on xeiron. So you went with a case that saved your partner and didn't require time for research.

Nope... still doesn't work. You had just voted for xeiron. I could have easily sheeped off that and played the "I am catching up, joth is making sense" card and it would have totally flyed. Would have been a lot better than trying to no-lynch if I were scum.... Again, your narrative makes no sense.

[jotheonah]

I'm not going to argue with scum. It's a pointless endeavor.

Vote: Walrus

Also perfectly comfortable voting yuma.

[yuma]

And you are basing all of this off unconfirmed idea that walrus is scum. If you are so sure he is mafia than vote for him and find out....

and won't you feel the fool if he flips town (although you will probably come up with some other lame narrative explaining how I am mafia)

and well... if he flips mafia I am sure you will gloat right into a mislynch of me... which at that point I won't really mind as we will have had 2 dead mafia at that point and be in pretty good shape.

[yuma]

I'm not going to argue with scum. It's a pointless endeavor.

Vote: Walrus

Also perfectly comfortable voting yuma.

Why are you so sure I am scum? Do you have a result that you want to share?

[yuma]

I'm not going to argue with scum. I know my argument has no merit. It's a pointless endeavor. So I am not going to try to argue my point because it is crap.

Vote: Walrus

Also perfectly comfortable voting yuma.

Fixed that for you.

[jotheonah]

I'm not going to argue with scum. It's a pointless endeavor.

Vote: Walrus

Also perfectly comfortable voting yuma.

Why are you so sure I am scum? Do you have a result that you want to share?

Man, trying to out ANOTHER power role. Keep digging, buddy.

Anyway, town naturally wants to No Lynch day 1. Nobody wants to kill anybody. You thought you could play on that inclination, come in, and save your partner. It was a gambit. It didn't work.

[yuma]

I'm not going to argue with scum. It's a pointless endeavor.

Vote: Walrus

Also perfectly comfortable voting yuma.

Why are you so sure I am scum? Do you have a result that you want to share?

Man, trying to out ANOTHER power role. Keep digging, buddy.

You didn't answer my question. Do you have a result on me you want to share? Yes or No?

[ashersky]

The only "result" we have (claimed) is sudgy's death from (presumably) targeting Walrus.

I think there are good odds it is exactly how it looks -- weak doctor targeted scum.

I don't get the "well, he might be the SK so let's leave him alive" thing that nkirbit is selling.

[jotheonah]

I'm not going to argue with scum. It's a pointless endeavor.

Vote: Walrus

Also perfectly comfortable voting yuma.

Why are you so sure I am scum? Do you have a result that you want to share?

Man, trying to out ANOTHER power role. Keep digging, buddy.

You didn't answer my question. Do you have a result on me you want to share? Yes or No?

I get it. It's important for you to know how screwed you are so you can structure your defense.

[EFHW]

scum didn't know sudgy's flavor name.  If ashersky's theory is correct, they could have killed sudgy to protect xeiron.

[yuma]

I'm not going to argue with scum. It's a pointless endeavor.

Vote: Walrus

Also perfectly comfortable voting yuma.

Why are you so sure I am scum? Do you have a result that you want to share?

Man, trying to out ANOTHER power role. Keep digging, buddy.

You didn't answer my question. Do you have a result on me you want to share? Yes or No?

I get it. It's important for you to know how screwed you are so you can structure your defense.

What is your motive? If you are town, what are you trying to do here? If you are scum, what are you trying to do here?

[EFHW]

He said he had a result, and then he said he didn't after all.

[EFHW]

scum didn't know sudgy's flavor name.  If ashersky's theory is correct, they could have killed sudgy to protect xeiron.

So, ashersky, why are you so sure it is Walrus they were trying to protect?

[yuma]

He said he had a result, and then he said he didn't after all.

Ok... then why is he so certain that I am scum to the point that he has egged me on, mildly belittled me and ragged on me and my general play style. but when I ask him if he has a result that makes him certain he gives me... more of the same?

[ashersky]

scum didn't know sudgy's flavor name.  If ashersky's theory is correct, they could have killed sudgy to protect xeiron.

So, ashersky, why are you so sure it is Walrus they were trying to protect?

I'm not sure they were trying to protect anyone.

I do not think scum killed sudgy.  I think sudgy targeted Walrus and died from his weak role.

However, I put out there the point that, even if sudgy was the NK, it doesn't clear walrus, because they could have shot him to protect Walrus (or xieron, as you rightly also mention).

Here are the possibilities, right?

Let's assume that "sudgy targeted Walrus" is always true.

1.  sudgy died because Walrus was scum and that auto-killed him as a weak role.
2.  sudgy died because scum shot him (to frame whomever he targeted and/or protect whomever he targeted).
3.  sudgy died because Walrus was scum AND scum shot him.

Those are the three possibilities.  In 2/3, walrus is scum, and in the 1/3 where he isn't scum, he could still be scum.  Occam's Razor, the most likely answer is probably the answer.

[yuma]

1.  sudgy died because Walrus was scum and that auto-killed him as a weak role.
2.  sudgy died because scum shot him (to frame whomever he targeted and/or protect whomever he targeted).
3.  sudgy died because Walrus was scum AND scum shot him.

Those are the three possibilities.  In 2/3, walrus is scum, and in the 1/3 where he isn't scum, he could still be scum.  Occam's Razor, the most likely answer is probably the answer.

But not all of these have the same % of happening, so using those sort of odds to try and figure out what happened isn't an accurate way of assessing the situation, in fact I would call in manipulation.

[jotheonah]

I just feel sure that yuma is scum. I have no extra information. But he is acting scummy. A scum narrative explains his behavior. I also expect scum!Galzria to lurk and replace moreso than I would expect town!Galzria too. Or, more accurately, if Galzria was in a game and he was too busy to play out day 1, and he was town, and he thought he was going to survive on his rep, he might be ok just lurking it, contributing whatever happened to pop into his head, and committing to play harder the next day.

Now what if Galzria is scum and he doesn't have time to play day 1? Galz carefully plans his scum play, I think maybe he decided if he couldn't play scum up to his usual standard he would replace out, especially if his partners were taking heat and he felt like he needed to save them. So he replaces. Yuma suddenly finds himself in a scum team in a terrible position, and not much time left on the clock, so he springs into action with a half-baked plan to save his partners day 1 and to work out day 2 later. It makes sense to me.

And what does he do day 2, when we have a slam-dunk lynch on Walrus based on the only kind of investigative result we have? immediately tries to divert us from it. yuma, why shouldn't we lynch Walrus?

So maybe Walrus got roleblocked and NK'd and Walrus isn't scum. Or maybe scum got roleblocked and Walrus is scum. Or maybe sudgy changed his mind and didn't target Walrus and Walrus did target scum. But Occam's razor to me, especially given Walrus's scummy claim yesterday, is that Walrus is scum.

[jotheonah]

So my plan is

Step 1: lynch Walrus.
Step 2: (assuming Walrus was scum) lynch yuma.
Step 3: profit.

[yuma]

And what does he do day 2, when we have a slam-dunk lynch on Walrus based on the only kind of investigative result we have? immediately tries to divert us from it. yuma, why shouldn't we lynch Walrus?

I haven't said we shouldn't lynch him. I just don't see it as the slam dunk that everyone is making it out to be.... This was brought up when sudgy claimed... and was why people were mad when sudgy claimed because it isn't a slam dunk. It is a three point attempt at best... maybe a contested jumper from outside the key... but not a slam dunk, so why rush into something that isn't guaranteed?

People saying this is slam-dunk are over stating it and saying Occam's Razor over and over again isn't going to make it any more likely to be accurate.

[yuma]

So my plan is

Step 1: lynch Walrus.
Step 2: (assuming Walrus was scum) lynch yuma.
Step 3: profit.

and what happens if walrus flips town...

I imagine your plan would be to

Step 2: still lynch yuma for reasons that havne't been explained yet.
Step 3: get closer to a mafia win?

[yuma]

I just think any plan that outlines what to do the next day is far, far more likely to come from scum than town especially when they are in this situation of being absolutely desperate... and needing to force something good for them to happen.

[ashersky]

And what does he do day 2, when we have a slam-dunk lynch on Walrus based on the only kind of investigative result we have? immediately tries to divert us from it. yuma, why shouldn't we lynch Walrus?

I haven't said we shouldn't lynch him. I just don't see it as the slam dunk that everyone is making it out to be.... This was brought up when sudgy claimed... and was why people were mad when sudgy claimed because it isn't a slam dunk. It is a three point attempt at best... maybe a contested jumper from outside the key... but not a slam dunk, so why rush into something that isn't guaranteed?

People saying this is slam-dunk are over stating it and saying Occam's Razor over and over again isn't going to make it any more likely to be accurate.

For the record, I haven't called it a slam dunk, and have pointed out on my own volition how it's possible walrus isn't actually scum.

It's just the most likely scenario is walrus is scum targeted by a weak doc.

[jotheonah]

So my plan is

Step 1: lynch Walrus.
Step 2: (assuming Walrus was scum) lynch yuma.
Step 3: profit.

and what happens if walrus flips town...

I imagine your plan would be to

Step 2: still lynch yuma for reasons that havne't been explained yet.
Step 3: get closer to a mafia win?

Day 2 you can lynch me. You shouldn't though because I'm town. I'll definitely re-consider the yuma lynch though. He makes a lot less sense as scum if Walrus flips town.

yuma, if you're just asking me to be nicer and less personal that's cool I can do that. I get kind of excited sometimes when I think I've found scum but I don't mean to mean. I'm not going to stop thinking you're scum, but I'm sorry if you feel attacked above and beyond that. I'm happy you subbed in! I like you generally! I just think you're almost certainly scum.

[EFHW]

If Walrus is a scum role blocker then why not just block sudgy's role?

[EFHW]

nvm, he might not have been able to act in the present.