Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!) (Read 338527 times)

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3225 on:** July 12, 2012, 06:42:42 am »

I am very offended that you guys don't think I have any friends.

I'm going to run through a potential pairs spreadsheet this morning, as we are down to only 15 possibilities.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3226 on:** July 12, 2012, 09:32:34 am »

Well - All right - I did a first pass "gut feel" on the plausibility, and came to the same conclusion. The next step would really be to go through the next level of pairing and add the serial killers (goes up to 60 possibilities - and actually map out who needs to be what) I'm not sure I can really do that.

Glooble actually comes out with the most plausible scum rating - I expected DSell to win this hands down.

Tables based scenarios looks the least scummy. The problem with a Tables as mafia is that if SFS is town - Tables needs to be a godfather. Unfortunately, a godfather scenario doesn't really fit well with the theory that we have a mafia roleblocker. 2 power roles for mafia doesn't seem especially likely - although Godfather is barely a power role if there the only cop is a one shot.

Brief side note: I considered giving the Tables / SFS pairing a 1 - but the fact that they are both still alive gives this pairing a little more plausibility. Added bonus - if Tables was a godfather - if he was night killed or otherwise lynched - it would clear SFS's claim!

My most plausible scenario was Glooble + DSell.

My least plausible were Me + Glooble.

Full table in next post (done on a separate machine)

tl;dr; I didn't learn anything.- my gut still says DSell.

SwitchedFromStarcraft · « **Reply #3227 on:** July 12, 2012, 09:33:28 am »

I'm in and out a lot today, but will check in frequently.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3228 on:** July 12, 2012, 09:38:23 am »

Full table as promised.

I basically gave all of the tables scenarios 2s. Same for SFS, but I bumped up the SFS + Glooble scenario, but I'm less convinced. I gave 2's to the scenarios of people who are gunning for my head out of the gates today (DSell / Glooble) The best scenario in my mind still looks like Glooble / DSell, but its not a slam dunk.

As i noted previously - this was gut feel... defaulted to 3 if the scenario was plausible with a few seconds of thought. Happy to debate my views on any of them. Naturally - in my personal sheet I zero out all of the pairs that deal with me - but that's not helpful for the rest of you.

Mafia 1	Mafia 2	Plausibility	Notes
Captain_Frisk	RobZ	3
Captain_Frisk	SFS	2	SFS has been trying to lynch CF for a long time. SFS expected to be town
Captain_Frisk	Tables	2
Captain_Frisk	Glooble	2	Came out with a claim to attempt a CF lynch - way too early for a bus
Captain_Frisk	Dsell	2	Dsell had to be convinced to shoot Axxle instead of me.
RobZ	SFS	2
RobZ	Tables	2
RobZ	Glooble	3
RobZ	DSell	3
SFS	Tables	2	This is an extremely risky early game claim - but not unplausible - especially given that they are still alive
SFS	Glooble	3	Glooble tee's up suspicion on CF -> SFS immediately votes?
SFS	DSell	2
Tables	Glooble	2
Tables	DSell	2
Glooble	DSell	4	Have backed off on working together - but this still feels like the most likely pair

Totals:

Glooble: 14
DSell: 13
RobZ: 13
Captain_Frisk: 11
SFS: 11
Tables: 10

SwitchedFromStarcraft · « **Reply #3229 on:** July 12, 2012, 01:40:49 pm »

Frisk, I want to make sure: the spectrum runs from 0 (not plausible) to 4 (most plausible), with the "neutral" point being the default value of 2? Who do you think the SK is?

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3230 on:** July 12, 2012, 02:24:47 pm »

Quote from: SwitchedFromStarcraft on July 12, 2012, 01:40:49 pm

Frisk, I want to make sure: the spectrum runs from 0 (not plausible) to 4 (most plausible), with the "neutral" point being the default value of 2? Who do you think the SK is?

I was using 1 to 5. 3 is my "plausible" baseline. 1 would have been "extremely unlikely / borderline impossible" and 5 would have been "extremely likely". Who the SK is depends on the mafia pairing. In the my most likely Glooble / DSell situation - I tend to suspect RobZ, but it could be a very lucky Tables. I tend to suspect you the least - but I suppose you aren't any more clear than Tables. I still lean on thinking your cop claim was inexperienced town play - rather than super crafty Mafia gambit. As a first time player - I can't picture you pulling that as Serial killer - especially coupled with the large number of rules questions you've had.

The problem with Tables (i think) is that in order for your investigation to have cleared him, he's not bulletproof, which removes one of the kill blocking possibilities which makes the Night 3 situation harder to explain.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3231 on:** July 12, 2012, 04:24:23 pm »

Hey guys. Mafia V is done. Mafia VI is sleeping. We've got some work to do here.

Robz888 · « **Reply #3232 on:** July 12, 2012, 04:28:29 pm »

Well Frisk, I am being steadily convinced to lynch you. I think there is too much risk that Dsell is the SK, and I trust Tables and SFS, so it's either you, or Glooble. And the case against you is better than the case against Glooble.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3233 on:** July 12, 2012, 04:34:54 pm »

Sounds good.

Who is my partner?

Robz888 · « **Reply #3234 on:** July 12, 2012, 04:36:06 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on July 12, 2012, 04:34:54 pm

Sounds good.

Who is my partner?

Well, as I've said, that's a huge hang up I have. Maybe Dsell.

Robz888 · « **Reply #3235 on:** July 12, 2012, 04:36:56 pm »

Quote from: Robz888 on July 12, 2012, 04:36:06 pm

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on July 12, 2012, 04:34:54 pm
Sounds good.

Who is my partner?

Well, as I've said, that's a huge hang up I have. Maybe Dsell.

I pushed for Jo and Axxle2 and was wrong. So I have to defer a bit to Tables, and SFS at this point.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3236 on:** July 12, 2012, 05:10:32 pm »

Follow your own logic there for a second.

You are deferring judgement to Tables and SFS (because you think they are town)
You are town (go check your own PM).

In that situation - you already know who the scum are - so you don't need to defer your judgement.

Does a me paired with either of those 2 make sense? If not - then they are the pair - and then you, me, SFS and tables need to figure out which one of us is the serial killer - but that is priority 2

For the record, I think that SFS is the least likely.

Dsell · « **Reply #3237 on:** July 12, 2012, 05:10:54 pm »

Frisk lynch is bisque lynch. Bisque is flavorful. Flavorful means mafia in this game.

Obvscum.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3238 on:** July 12, 2012, 05:12:04 pm »

What makes me so obvious good sir?

Dsell · « **Reply #3239 on:** July 12, 2012, 05:13:14 pm »

/joke

Tables · « **Reply #3240 on:** July 12, 2012, 06:49:23 pm »

Ugh, I'm really not sure. Frisk is definitely at the top of my list currently, but I can't shake this feeling Robz is something. And I've looked back, and I can't find anything new to point out or look at. SFS, any thoughts?

Dsell · « **Reply #3241 on:** July 12, 2012, 07:35:55 pm »

Well, Robz may be Frisk's partner. I, too, am curious to hear from SFS since we haven't in a while, though he said he'd made up his mind. I think I have too.

Vote: Captain_Frisk

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3242 on:** July 12, 2012, 07:52:00 pm »

This cements it for me. The serial killer won't vote early because mislynching town results in likely loss for him too.

Dsell is mafia

Dsell · « **Reply #3243 on:** July 12, 2012, 08:03:37 pm »

I'm not the serial killer, nor am I mafia. Were you just going to accuse your first voter in this manner, whoever it was?

Dsell · « **Reply #3244 on:** July 12, 2012, 08:09:53 pm »

And you will keep trying to establish your innocence, of course, but I think it's pretty dang clear that you're mafia. Galz and jo both made it clear that they were suspicious of you before they died.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3245 on:** July 12, 2012, 08:10:07 pm »

Nope. Only you. I know you are scum, but thought you might be the serial killer

There is no way you are a one shot vi who shot axxle2 ad was magic blocked.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3246 on:** July 12, 2012, 08:11:07 pm »

I'll ask you the same question. If I am mafia : who is my partner?

Dsell · « **Reply #3247 on:** July 12, 2012, 08:12:30 pm »

There is no way that I wouldn't go through with killing Axxle if I were mafia or serial killer, when it would pretty much validate my story.

I'm done arguing.

Pre-post edit: I've already answered that. Most likely SFS or Robz.

SwitchedFromStarcraft · « **Reply #3248 on:** July 12, 2012, 08:37:08 pm »

Quote from: Tables on July 12, 2012, 06:49:23 pm

Ugh, I'm really not sure. Frisk is definitely at the top of my list currently, but I can't shake this feeling Robz is something. And I've looked back, and I can't find anything new to point out or look at. SFS, any thoughts?

Yeah, Robz kind of worries me too at this stage. Cause I believe glooble, and that makes him town.

You were cleared by my investigation, and though I've gone to great pains to remind the scientist in me that that is not 100%, I'm willing to go with Pops explanation (back when I was "nitpicking" - don't want to look up the post) that 90% of the time an investigation result of town really means town. Someone earlier today pointed out that for the SK to have chosen investigation immunity means we have a serious problem explaining the absence of all death on Night 3. Someone else pointed out a long time ago that any good SK will pick one-shot bulletproof over investigation immunity, and I have to agree with that as well. Therefore, I have to go with you being town.

So I'm town, I believe Glooble to be town, and you almost have to be town. PoE means Dsell, Frisk, and Robz are the bad guys (unless we had only two mafia including O). So I guess I'm ready, while acknowledging that it feels like we are rolling the dice.

VOTE: CAPTAIN_FRISK

That makes two, and we need 4 to lynch.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3249 on:** July 12, 2012, 08:40:08 pm »

SFS - please don't be the townie that loses the game.

Dominion Strategy Forum

News:

Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!) (Read 338527 times)