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[Captain_Frisk]

*Ding Ding Ding*

[Robz888]

I am not going to participate in mass roleclaiming per Robz's comment and table's comment regarding roleclaiming being a bad idea.  Glooble may be telling the truth, but he hasn't blocked me from killing anyone.

We actually need you to, now. Glooble has made that necessary, I think. There is no way that Glooble is a Town Roleblocker, and we also still have undiscovered townie powers. So if anyone has powers they haven't mentioned, they need to name them NOW. Not, like, one vote before they get killed.

[Glooble]

Okay, Night 3 we had zero kills, when we expected 3: Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle, the mafia kill, and the SK kill.

You blocked Axxle, who we know has no power. Meaning we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.

Let's say the mafia blocked Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle. There is actually no way that 2 more kills could have been blocked, no matter who is who. Because the SK can't prevent any kills, and the mafia prevented Dsell's kill. There is... no way to explain the lack of death.

Basically, Glooble is lying, or Dsell is lying.

So either DSell is SK and Frisk is Mafia, or DSell is Mafia and Frisk is SK.

The tricky part being it would be much better for us to lynch mafia.

My guess is DSell = SK. Reason being, mafia would want to keep pops around as a lynch target. He was one of the scummiest-looking players still around.

[Tables]

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

[Tables]

Also, SFS, remove your vote ASAP. It's no danger yet, but if a second vote were unwittingly placed, the mafia (if they consist of two members) might be able to quickhammer, and we lose. There's no benefit to voting now.

[Dsell]

Robz, I think it's silly to completely rule out the idea that there was a single mafia member who chose to block instead of killing night 3. It's a risky gambit, sure, but if it results in the probable lynch of two townies in future days, which would keep them in the game longer so they have more chances to NK, it could be worth it. I don't know if that's what happened, all I know is I shot and it didn't work. But it's the only shot I've taken this game.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Okay, Night 3 we had zero kills, when we expected 3: Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle, the mafia kill, and the SK kill.

You blocked Axxle, who we know has no power. Meaning we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.

Let's say the mafia blocked Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle. There is actually no way that 2 more kills could have been blocked, no matter who is who. Because the SK can't prevent any kills, and the mafia prevented Dsell's kill. There is... no way to explain the lack of death.

Basically, Glooble is lying, or Dsell is lying.

Robz - I have several problems or questions with this post.

Sentence 3: How do we know we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.  We've only surveyed for other town vigilantes, we've not surveyed for roleblocking ability (and I'm NOT suggesting that we do so).  Granted, there may be balance issues that make your assumption a logical one, but you state it so boldly (and baldly).

Sentence 6:  We haven't determined that the mafia prevented Dsell's kill.  Dsell could be lying.

Now, having said all that, I agree that it is extremely likely that one or both of Glooble/Dsell is lying.  I think Dsell is more likely to be lying, but that may well be because I've been concerned about it for 3 RL days.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

So this post now puts Robz and Tables squarely in disagreement.

And Frisk upvoted it.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Also, SFS, remove your vote ASAP. It's no danger yet, but if a second vote were unwittingly placed, the mafia (if they consist of two members) might be able to quickhammer, and we lose. There's no benefit to voting now.

I don't believe anyone would unwittingly vote, any more than I believe someone would forget (or remember incorrectly, if that's more acceptable terminology) who they had or hadn't voted for.  I'll leave my vote where it is, thanks.

And I note that Frisk upvoted this post as well.

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS - there are only 2 reasons that you should be voting right now:

1. You are DAMN sure that I'm mafia.
2. You are mafia yourself - and mislynching doesn't result in your death.

4 votes ends the game dude.  2 of those votes can come from mafia.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Robz, I think it's silly to completely rule out the idea that there was a single mafia member who chose to block instead of killing night 3. It's a risky gambit, sure, but if it results in the probable lynch of two townies in future days, which would keep them in the game longer so they have more chances to NK, it could be worth it. I don't know if that's what happened, all I know is I shot and it didn't work. But it's the only shot I've taken this game.

emphasis mine
Is this a scumslip?  It's certainly redundant, given that Dsell claimed he was a one-shot vig.  Why add this thought? Feeling guilty about something?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS - there are only 2 reasons that you should be voting right now:

1. You are DAMN sure that I'm mafia.
2. You are mafia yourself - and mislynching doesn't result in your death.

4 votes ends the game dude.  2 of those votes can come from mafia.

There are lots of other reasons, which I'll not explain in the face of rising discomfort with my vote.

Also, you've gone the whole game without using the term "dude" (well not much at all.  It's just not your style).  Now you've used it three times today.  What's changed? Feeling some heat?

[Captain_Frisk]

Also - yesterday it seemed pretty agreeable that one of the following was scum:  Axxle / DSell.
Today - with Glooble's claim - one of the following is lying: DSell, Glooble.

As long as there are 2 mafia, I know that at least one of the 3 of you is lying (DSell, Glooble, SFS), because there can only be 3 town.  If nobody else has looked at their role and come to that conclusion - they are scum.

All right - time to mow the lawn and figure out how we can prove which one of you is lying rather than just taking a shot in the dark.

[Dsell]

Robz, I think it's silly to completely rule out the idea that there was a single mafia member who chose to block instead of killing night 3. It's a risky gambit, sure, but if it results in the probable lynch of two townies in future days, which would keep them in the game longer so they have more chances to NK, it could be worth it. I don't know if that's what happened, all I know is I shot and it didn't work. But it's the only shot I've taken this game.

emphasis mine
Is this a scumslip?  It's certainly redundant, given that Dsell claimed he was a one-shot vig.  Why add this thought? Feeling guilty about something?

I'm emphasizing that I'm not the serial killer or mafia.

SFS - there are only 2 reasons that you should be voting right now:

1. You are DAMN sure that I'm mafia.
2. You are mafia yourself - and mislynching doesn't result in your death.

4 votes ends the game dude.  2 of those votes can come from mafia.

Or those 4 votes can lynch mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

As for pressure - you bet I'm feeling it.  When you guys were about to lynch me last week - it didn't matter because I wasn't about to lose the game - there's still information in a mislynch.  You lynch me now and it is over - and you guys play out who's going to win - SK or Mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

Lawn looks nice - but no conclusions here.  Will check back in after dinner.

Note on Glooble's claim: since a mislynch effectively ends the game for town - claiming town rolecop here to force a mislynch is a reasonable play.  This particular claim is great because it can't be disproven - even when I flip town.

The problem I have with assuming Glooble's guilt is that he really should claimed something that explained night 3.

I'm going to have some win with dinner and wonder who served it to me.

[Dsell]

Can someone (besides C_F) give me a good reason why I should not vote for C_F right now? Don't tell me "because if there's two mafia they can quickhammer right away" because that's only true if he's not a part of the mafia, and it's JUST as true with any member of the town and it's just as true if we wait to lynch him for x number of days. I mean does anyone really really think that he's town for some great reason that everyone's overlooked? Slash does anyone have great evidence for why Glooble must be lying?

I'm fine with waiting for a consensus but at this point I don't think the mafia is/are going to give himself/themselves away.

[Dsell]

Note on Glooble's claim: since a mislynch effectively ends the game for town - claiming town rolecop here to force a mislynch is a reasonable play.  This particular claim is great because it can't be disproven - even when I flip town.

Roleblocker? There is no rolecop in the setup.

Also, the fact that there was only one kill suggests (but does not mandate) that someone was blocked or protected.

[Robz888]

Dsell, do NOT vote for Frisk. Right now if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would choose Frisk. But there's absolutely no reason to vote right now. It's dangerous. Just don't.

[Dsell]

Actually it's possible that Glooble is a mafia roleblocker (or even vanilla mafia) who made no kill, hoping the SK would target town to frame someone for a mislynch. But that seems ludicrously risky to me (a lot moreso than mafia targeting no one on night 3).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Dsell, do NOT vote for Frisk. Right now if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would choose Frisk. But there's absolutely no reason to vote right now. It's dangerous. Just don't.

So on this question, Frisk and Robz are on the same side.

[Dsell]

Dsell, do NOT vote for Frisk. Right now if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would choose Frisk. But there's absolutely no reason to vote right now. It's dangerous. Just don't.

Yeah I realize this is probably the best decision. I'm kind of having a rough day so I apologize if I am sarcastic or edgy, I can't let it affect this game though.

I just don't see tons more information coming forward though. The mafia aren't going to stand in line at the gallows, so I feel like this day may just be a bunch of finger pointing and arguing and not much changing. Only exception is if we find Glooble's claim to be verifiably false, but it looks likely enough to me. It doesn't make sense as mafia, especially when C_F quite likely would have been lynched anyway.

[Robz888]

What we have to do is continuously run through all the permutations of what could have happened in the night given this person being mafia, this person being SK, etc. And then kill whoever has the most permutations where they are mafia, and it fits with what happened. I guess.

I still assert that Glooble's claim that he roleblocked Axxle Night 3 likely contradicts Dsell's claim that he is a Town One-Shot Vig who shot Axxle. Since Axxle is town, we know Glooble did not block either the mafia or SK kills. If the mafia hit the one-shot immune SK and Dsell is not lying but was roleblocked by mafia, there should still be an SK kill. The only way to explain that would be we also have a Doctor, or the SK took no action to be confusing, or... Dsell is not who he says he is, or Glooble didn't do what he said.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, here's where I'm at.  I believe Glooble. IIRC my vote reflects that.

On a completely separate, unrelated note, I just can't believe that Dsell actually fired a shot.  Sure, there are some explanations for no deaths on night 3 that could be entertained, but at this point I consider them corner cases unless I've misunderstood the fairly complete examination of the scenarios.

So basically my lynchables are Frisk and Dsell.  I can't pursue much game state analysis in my present surroundings (too many interruptions), but I'd like a fuller understanding of the importance of which order we lynch: SK then mafia, or mafia then SK. Can someone elaborate.  I am unvoting until I'm clear on that topic.

UNVOTE

[Dsell]

What we have to do is continuously run through all the permutations of what could have happened in the night given this person being mafia, this person being SK, etc. And then kill whoever has the most permutations where they are mafia, and it fits with what happened. I guess.

I still assert that Glooble's claim that he roleblocked Axxle Night 3 likely contradicts Dsell's claim that he is a Town One-Shot Vig who shot Axxle. Since Axxle is town, we know Glooble did not block either the mafia or SK kills. If the mafia hit the one-shot immune SK and Dsell is not lying but was roleblocked by mafia, there should still be an SK kill. The only way to explain that would be we also have a Doctor, or the SK took no action to be confusing, or... Dsell is not who he says he is, or Glooble didn't do what he said.

Or the mafia chose not to kill/chose to roleblock instead of killing, thus setting me up as a liar and likely causing two consecutive days of town deaths.