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Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 338500 times)

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Glooble

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1300 on: June 12, 2012, 10:31:05 am »

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1301 on: June 12, 2012, 10:35:28 am »

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

This entire post makes me extremely suspicious of you.  SFS's claim would be even worse as a mafia play than it was as town. 

I read this as "oh crap, lots of people are talking about me, oh crap oh crap oh crap oh crap"
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1302 on: June 12, 2012, 10:37:18 am »

I actually see Gloob's point. And Voltgloss's OP actually says there could be multiple of a role, so he's not in much danger of a counterclaim. CF, WHY would it be such a bad mafia play?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1303 on: June 12, 2012, 10:40:06 am »

So let's say Galz is Mafia. He leads a bandwagon on a townie who, prior to his initial post, did not have any more suspicion on him than anyone else. He is immediately joined by the guy who everyone thinks is mafia. This does not seem like the kind of strong scum play I've come to expect from scumGalz. On the other hand, it worked. Six more people voted for Axxle, at least some of them were town.

Galz is an advanced player, it's possible he figured stay in the middle of the pack, don't do anything to arouse suspicion, help out an existing bandwagon when one comes up was such an obvious mafia strategy that the best way to avoid suspicion was to come out boldly, guns blazing for someone and apologize when that someone came up town. It's also possible that he didn't think anyone would join him on the Axxle bandwagon and just wanted his vote to be somewhere innocuous when jo flipped town. So you're right, we shouldn't exonerate Galz. There are plenty of scenarios in which he could still be scum.

jo: voting for Robz for continuing to attack you looks scummy. Care to make a case against him that doesn't rely on the knowledge that you are innocent, since you are the only one who possesses that knowledge?

No, I'll pass for now.

You don't have to know I'm innocent, it just helps.  I have now seen (confirmed) town Robz and (confirmed) scum Robz play. Guess which one digs in to a target and doesn't let go, regardless of evidence and shifts in public opinion?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1304 on: June 12, 2012, 10:41:23 am »

I have now seen (confirmed) town Robz and (confirmed) scum Robz play. Guess which one digs in to a target and doesn't let go, regardless of evidence and shifts in public opinion?

Both.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1305 on: June 12, 2012, 10:41:37 am »

@Glooble

Well, it's a start. It's essentially the case I laid out against myself in post #1223. Thing is, I'm town this game. But it doesn't do anybody any favors to just assume that. Especially with my history of being Mafia while appearing town. If I can pull it off, so can others. So never disregard anybody.

@Jotheonah

Your defense is weak at best. It IS good Mafia play because acting the way you did has a history of flipping up town. And it's that history that caused your bandwagon to die. If you are Mafia or not this game, I don't know. But the fact is the longer we allow that style of play to be acceptable, and if we start writing it off as "bad-town" play, the easier it's going to be for the Mafia to hide in such tactics.

You played a strong town game in M-II. The only non-Mafia that really thought you might be scum was Voltgloss. And by the end, even he was hesitant. You watched Morgrim get lynched for crazy. You watched me get lynched for crazy. You watched TINAS and Robz almost get lynched for crazy. Why in the world would you come in here playing the crazy game? As Mafia, OR Town?

Like I said. I'm not sure. But I've seen you play in two other games, and both times thought your overall plan was much more advanced than you would APPEAR to be playing now. So I feel forced to set appearances aside, and instead look at the more obscure, strategical reasons for your actions. I don't buy what's on the surface.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Glooble

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1306 on: June 12, 2012, 10:44:38 am »

Oh, one more thing about SFS - if there is a counterclaim, and he is Mafia, he's just exposed the town's cop. That's kind of win-win right there.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1307 on: June 12, 2012, 10:47:36 am »

I actually see Gloob's point. And Voltgloss's OP actually says there could be multiple of a role, so he's not in much danger of a counterclaim. CF, WHY would it be such a bad mafia play?

I agree that it's a weak roleclaim, but to come out and claim when most people seem to have written you off as a crazy townie seems like calling down unnecessary attention on yourself.

I'm sticking with Hanlon's Razor on my read here.  As evidence, I present today's isotropic leaderboard:

SwitchedFromStarcraft
15.610 ± 9.758   
983 games played

(No offense intended SFS)



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Glooble

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1308 on: June 12, 2012, 10:56:52 am »

So if he is town, how is his premature roleclaim any better than jos? I contend "Tables is town" gives us basically no help in our scumhunting given that 1. we must trust that SFS is town and telling the truth, and 2. Witch and Chancellor would both turn up town.

This still looks like inexplicably poor town play and risky but potentially extremely profitable scum play. Especially given the possibility that there are multiples of any given role.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1309 on: June 12, 2012, 10:59:58 am »

Guys, Robz and Galz are acting weird! They're putting a lot of energy into pointing at each other and saying "he's town, but you should be suspecting him anyway." They're like a perverse Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum. What's the game?

I mean, even if you are both town, why is it productive to point the rest of the town at someone you think is town and tell them to consider that they could be scum?

Like, Robz, if you think Galz is mafia, then say Galz is mafia and make a case. And if you think he's town, then leave him alone. But seriously pick one.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1310 on: June 12, 2012, 11:02:31 am »

This still looks like inexplicably poor town play and risky but potentially extremely profitable scum play. Especially given the possibility that there are multiples of any given role.

It doesn't seem to me that the mafia need to make any risky plays at this point.  3 town are dead.

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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1311 on: June 12, 2012, 11:10:40 am »

Guys, Robz and Galz are acting weird! They're putting a lot of energy into pointing at each other and saying "he's town, but you should be suspecting him anyway." They're like a perverse Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum. What's the game?

I mean, even if you are both town, why is it productive to point the rest of the town at someone you think is town and tell them to consider that they could be scum?

Like, Robz, if you think Galz is mafia, then say Galz is mafia and make a case. And if you think he's town, then leave him alone. But seriously pick one.

Is that your D2 strategy? Attack anybody who suspects you? You haven't made one valid argument today, and appear to be actively trying to (unsuccessfuly) play like O or Pops today.

It isn't all that "wierd" to point out that people should not acquit me so easily. If they do for me, they will for others, and that allows opportunities for Mafia to hide.

Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

If people want to join me, great. If not, well that's ok too. I can't see anybody reading more scummy to me as the day wears on however.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1312 on: June 12, 2012, 11:20:29 am »


Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

So tempted, but your statement directed @ J is exactly how I feel about Glooble.

Vote: Glooble.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1313 on: June 12, 2012, 11:24:35 am »

Guys, Robz and Galz are acting weird! They're putting a lot of energy into pointing at each other and saying "he's town, but you should be suspecting him anyway." They're like a perverse Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum. What's the game?

I mean, even if you are both town, why is it productive to point the rest of the town at someone you think is town and tell them to consider that they could be scum?

Like, Robz, if you think Galz is mafia, then say Galz is mafia and make a case. And if you think he's town, then leave him alone. But seriously pick one.

Is that your D2 strategy? Attack anybody who suspects you? You haven't made one valid argument today, and appear to be actively trying to (unsuccessfuly) play like O or Pops today.

It isn't all that "wierd" to point out that people should not acquit me so easily. If they do for me, they will for others, and that allows opportunities for Mafia to hide.

Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

If people want to join me, great. If not, well that's ok too. I can't see anybody reading more scummy to me as the day wears on however.

Sorry, did I attack you in that post Galz? I said you were acting weird, which I myself have said does not mean scummy.

It's Day 2 and you're town and everybody trusts you. That's a GOOD thing. If you tell them to stop trusting you and they listen, that's a bad thing. If you tell them to stop trusting you and they don't listen, but instead say "Oh what a helpful townie he is, telling us not to trust him" then, good for you, I guess. I just don't see the point. There's been so much talk today and so little of it has been useful. It feels like Day 1 again.

You know what, if Robz and Galz are really serious about how we should be more suspicious of Galzria, let's give the people what they want.

Vote: Galzria

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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1314 on: June 12, 2012, 11:25:44 am »

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1315 on: June 12, 2012, 11:26:58 am »

I think the unvote is implied. Unless I can vote for both Robz and Galz at the same time.
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Glooble

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1316 on: June 12, 2012, 11:27:51 am »


Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

So tempted, but your statement directed @ J is exactly how I feel about Glooble.

Vote: Glooble.

What has been erratic about my Day 2 play? Day one everyone was accusing me of rehashing other people's arguments and not contributing any of my own. So I came into day 2 resolved to be more helpful, in coming up with things other people might have missed or glossed over. Tell me why this makes me scummy?

Jo, I think you're starting to lose your cool a little and its not looking good for you.
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1317 on: June 12, 2012, 11:29:00 am »

I think the unvote is implied. Unless I can vote for both Robz and Galz at the same time.

Your immediate vote on Galz after accusation makes me so sad I didn't vote with Galz.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1318 on: June 12, 2012, 11:29:09 am »

You're right, Gloob, but I just don't care.

I am serious though. Let's put 4 or 5 votes on Galz and see what he has to say about how suspicious we ought to be of him. Let's call the bluff.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1319 on: June 12, 2012, 11:30:45 am »


Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

So tempted, but your statement directed @ J is exactly how I feel about Glooble.

Vote: Glooble.

What has been erratic about my Day 2 play? Day one everyone was accusing me of rehashing other people's arguments and not contributing any of my own. So I came into day 2 resolved to be more helpful, in coming up with things other people might have missed or glossed over. Tell me why this makes me scummy?


Sorry - its more of the second sentence.  As you continued to hammer an argument against SFS that I couldn't rationalize, I found my FOS raising higher and higher... and it turns out it was pointing at you.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1320 on: June 12, 2012, 11:31:33 am »

@J

Voting for me does not show suspicion. Making logical, well reasoned arguments does. But that's something you've been incapable of this game... Or at least, especially D2.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Glooble

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1321 on: June 12, 2012, 11:36:18 am »

Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1322 on: June 12, 2012, 11:37:46 am »

Vote Count 2-2

jotheonah (1): Galzria
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah

Not voting {9}: Dsell, Robz888, O, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1323 on: June 12, 2012, 11:41:02 am »

@Galz

Ok, you want the convincing argument for my radical change in playstyle? Here it is. During MII I was unemployed. I had lots and lots of time to analyze, quote, repost, be rational. Since this game started I've been working 10 to 6. I have time to stop in here at work and post a pithy response or two, but I don't have time for in-depth analysis. And when I get home at the end of the day, I'm just tired.

So, in light of that, and in the interest of experimentation, I started playing this game with a light touch. That doesn't come at all naturally to me, so it's been a weird fit. Probably would not try it again.

See past your tunnel vision for a second, and believe in my towniness. Or don't.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 2 START!)
« Reply #1324 on: June 12, 2012, 11:59:12 am »

Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.

Ah, you're probably right. I'm letting J draw me into a pointless argument, and I know better. My vote stands for now, because of the reasons laid out, but responding to his posts at this point is rather, well, pointless.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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