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[gkrieg13]

@IDPTG: Any thoughts on the whole me/O/gkrieg thing (and on Galz while you're at it) ? What about Robe v mcmc ?

I think a gkrieg flip tells us a lot, but I don"t think that's a reason to lynch him. Not sure what I think if you yet. As for O, I've scumread people in the past for getting set-ups as wrong as this Ascetic deal, but it's never panned out well so I'm inclined to think it's town!O.

As for Robz vs mcmc, I think mcmc is the townier of the two, but it's not a super strong read.

That said, I think scum!mcmc flipping would also be rather informative.

This is after he had a town result on you?

I think this is very fishy.

[gkrieg13]

vote: galz has to be my best guess. done too much help for scum to be town ie lynching townies and allowing for potential loss of cop result ect

Bwahahaha

Weakest case ever lol

I actually have to agree with galz here.  The case in this post is very weak, but I think he is coupling it with what he had said in his previous posts.  But, I think that Mcmcsalot is town here, as I don't see him as scum with IDPTG.

[gkrieg13]

I’m behind this lynch. Do we want more discussion?

Pretty sure if I vote the day will end very soon, some people love their dear hammer time so.

I would like you to contribute to the discussion more.

[gkrieg13]

I had a bad feeling when the lynch went through so easily yesterday. It seems like we are doing what scum wants us to be doing.

This gives me the scums.  It doesn't really offer anything, and tries to put blame on other people.

While it gives me the towns because I feel the exact same way. I agree it's not productive in and of itself though.

I guess it just seems like such an easy thing to say as scum.

[gkrieg13]

Well, I either saved myself and killed EFHW, or did nothing.

I redirected to EFHW last night. I don't -believe- scum tried to kill me (especially if I'm correct in my stated reads from yesterday), so I think the kill was natural. The only thing above me in priority (still alive/possible) is Gkrieg, and I doubt he messed with much.

My thought process was that O, if town, was likely to target me to Roleblock. He got ascetic wrong and I was hopeful he got order resolution wrong as well. I also thought scum would have a player with lesser suspicion perform the kill so I didn't want to re-target  to a top read. That brought me to Robz/EFHW as my top two scummy-but-under-the-radar choices. I picked EFHW.

With that said, Robz and Theorel both come across as scum here:

Robz's "Sure would be nice to have more information here" sounds like he knows, as scum, that they tried to shoot me last night but EFHW wound up dead. Like he has foresight into shenanigans.

Theorel takes it a step further - again, his post reads like he knows that I must come out with this information, and is looking to preempt it by calling me out as scum. It's very direct and very targeted, and it explains why he's having trouble even justifying his own case.

With 10 alive (3 scum), a mislynch today places the game into into MyLo {8, 3} tomorrow.

This indicates that O is -probably- Town, as I believe that if scum targeted me to kill then it's because they believed I would redirect to my biggest scum read.

I'll go with a vote: Robz for now.

On another note:

Claimed or known PR's:

Joseph
EFHW
Mcmc
Galz
Teproc
O

Mcmc, who did you target for neighborizer N1?

Galz, you kind of go back and forth here.  You give O a townread because you think that scum targeted you, but say at the beginning that scum probably didn't target you with the kill.

I'm aware. It's because I'm fighting my own bias of seeing him as scum. By the conclusion, and more so now, I'm leaning towards a scum team of: {Theorel, IDPTG, Robz/Eevee}

Why Theorel?

[gkrieg13]

Why would I redirect you? I don't believe scum!O does the NK, and I don't believe scum try and kill me if you're scum because of the CHANCE that I redirect to you.

Seriously, what at all do I gain by redirecting to you if I think you're scum?

As far as I understand, I think you are understanding your own role incorrectly.  Can't you just deflect off yourself onto another player?  Wouldn't you always want to deflect to your highest scum read?  Because it doesn't actually matter if O performs the night kill, he would still be the one that is actually killed.

Right - but I really didn't think scum would shoot me if O is scum because of the high probability of exactly that. It's FAR more likely scum shoot me if O is Town, expecting me to redirect to him.

Now, yes, I scum read him strongly - but if I was right and he was scum then (as I didn't think he would perform the nk), all I would be doing by redirecting to him is potentially blocking him from... blocking me? I don't even know how that would resolve.

In the end, my redirecting to ANYBODY should've done nothing at all (and perhaps, even, it didn't) because NOBODY should be targeting me. IF scum choose to shoot me, then it likely meant my read on O was wrong - and possibly (if not probably) most of my reads in general.

Ok, I guess I get your point here.  I still don't think scum tried to kill you anyway.

[Galzria]

As I noted in the post that you quoted, his arguments for me felt very forced and weak - he himself admitted that he was having trouble justifying them.

If I was, in fact, shot last night, then scum probably expected me to redirect to a town player (likely one of my scum reads) - Theorel's case on me made prior to my claiming actions sounds as if he knows already that I must claim, and wants to preempt it by trying to paint potential actions by me as scummy. That is, he's reading that my future claim to have targeted EFHW will be seen as scummy and wants to already have set up the push on me.

It comes across as premeditated - like scum choose to shoot me with the idea back that either:

A) I die

Or

B) I redirect to one of my scum reads (which were probably ass-backward from where I'm standing now), who flips town - and they planned on pushing my lynch for this action.

It feels like he had trouble justifying the case because there really isn't anything there. The fact that he came out with it prior to my claiming is what really makes it feel premeditated.

[Galzria]

I'm basically at a cross roads:

If scum didn't shoot me, then I'm not so unhappy with my reads from yesterday.

If scum did shoot me, then I'm probably completely, 100% wrong.

I would naturally lean towards the former - But between comments from Robz & Theorel, combined with IDPTG's completely illogical actions (unless his action itself was too shoot me), I'm inclined to feel like, well, maybe I was shot.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Actually, I'll do it now.

D1: not a whole lot of posts and no vote at the end which helped contribute to a no-lynch scenario that was barely avoided

Yeah. Not much to say there other than my previous explanation. Bad play and rather anti-town. I wasn't at training every day and it's not too much to ask for me to sit down and spend 30-60 minutes on this game each IRL day.

D2: similar lack of posts and bad hammer

I went for the hammer because O had already posted intent to hammer, I had a scumread on DatSwan, and since PR has nothing to do with alignment there wasn't much I felt DatSwan could say to sway my opinion at that point.

Anything I'm forgetting? I haven't done much this game so this ended up shorter than I thought it was going to be.

This isn't meant to "absolve [me] of the responsibility of [my] actions and votes", just to give everyone context and my opinion. If people have questions, I'll try to be around to answer them today.

While you are doing this, you should answer the question that Theorel posed here:

I think IDPTG's hammer is also suspicious.  He didn't want to put DatSwan to L-1, but then after Robz goaded him, he was fine with hammering.  I'd like to hear an explanation there as to why he changed his mind that severely...after all L-1 doesn't end the day, it just adds more pressure.  Datswan still could have responded at that point, for instance.  The hammer ends all discussion for certain.

Good point. vote: Robz

...you quoted my answer. In bold now.

[Eevee]

I had a bad feeling when the lynch went through so easily yesterday. It seems like we are doing what scum wants us to be doing.

This gives me the scums.  It doesn't really offer anything, and tries to put blame on other people.

I don't mean to put the blame on other people - I voted for Swan and it really started to build momentum after that. Swan was certainly the lynch I most wanted, but how easily it pushed through made me feel uneasy, already before the flip was posted. I wanted people to vote for him, but I guess the way it happened made me feel it probably was a mislynch. Eh.

[Eevee]

Vote: ash

I'm not not suspicious of Galzria, but this doesn't seem like something that he would need to lie about if he was scum. Interested to hear what mcmc has to say, I'd like to update my read on him.

(Robz's case on Galzria interests me as well, if it's still coming.)

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying here.  Are you saying that you think that Galzria did lie with who he targeted, or are you giving him town points for "not lying"?

There is a confusing and grammatically incorrect double-negative in there, but I meant that while I don't have a towny feeling on Galzria, this particular incident didn't seem scum-indicative to me.

Galzria is often such a big town read for me, whenever he's not, I'm inherently a bit suspicious. It's more of a nagging feeling than anything substantial I could even put to words.

[ashersky]

vote: gkrieg I guess.

[Robz888]

I feel like ash is not plying the same game the rest of us are.

[gkrieg13]

Mcmcsalot: Did IDPTG tell you immediately who he had visited?  Or did he wait?  I have a conspiracy theory that needs answering!

[Galzria]

Mcmcsalot: Did IDPTG tell you immediately who he had visited?  Or did he wait?  I have a conspiracy theory that needs answering!

I think he's answered that twice - at least, he's said that he claimed prior to my claiming.

[Galzria]

@theorel IDPTG did claim to target galz’s pretty much as soon as day started multiple hours before galz claimed to redirect to efhw. Idptg also immediately realized his mistake.

[theorel]

As I noted in the post that you quoted, his arguments for me felt very forced and weak - he himself admitted that he was having trouble justifying them.

If I was, in fact, shot last night, then scum probably expected me to redirect to a town player (likely one of my scum reads) - Theorel's case on me made prior to my claiming actions sounds as if he knows already that I must claim, and wants to preempt it by trying to paint potential actions by me as scummy. That is, he's reading that my future claim to have targeted EFHW will be seen as scummy and wants to already have set up the push on me.

It comes across as premeditated - like scum choose to shoot me with the idea back that either:

A) I die

Or

B) I redirect to one of my scum reads (which were probably ass-backward from where I'm standing now), who flips town - and they planned on pushing my lynch for this action.

It feels like he had trouble justifying the case because there really isn't anything there. The fact that he came out with it prior to my claiming is what really makes it feel premeditated.

So, Galz...I really don't understand how my argument on you comes across as having anything to do with your claim.  My argument was:
1. Scum used oracle to discover EFHW was active N1.
2. You allowed this knowledge to influence your arguments yesterday.
-it has absolutely ZERO bearing on your night actions.  It's all about you having more information than you're supposed to.

I still really don't understand why scum would target you at all though, so I do still believe that scum knew EFHW's PR-status from their oracle.  The only thing that changed is I reread your arguments, and you had the player-count consistently wrong.  I think that if IDPTG is scum, then scum did target you...but it seems like IDPTG in a scum QT is going to be talked out of the insanity of claiming to target you.  I think it's highly unlikely that scum shot you, but I think your reads from yesterday are maybe bad?  (well, I think either you or O is scum, so from my perspective that read is good.)

[Archetype]

Vote Count 3.2

Galzria (1): mcmcsalot
Robz888 (1): IDontPlayThisGame
IDontPlayThisGame (3): gkrieg13, Robz888, Galzria
ashersky (2): Eevee, theorel
gkrieg13(1): ashersky

Not Voting (2): Teproc, O
With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 will end January 15th at 2:30 PM.

[ashersky]

I can never read theorel.  You’ve generally been Town when I’ve scumread you, right?

[O]

Vote: Ashersky

the fact that he has no votes on him and seems so hard to lynch despite being pretty strictly anti-town persona all game is pretty indicative IMO.

[ashersky]

Vote: Ashersky

the fact that he has no votes on him and seems so hard to lynch despite being pretty strictly anti-town persona all game is pretty indicative IMO.

You mean the two votes on me already don’t count?  Cool! 

vote: O.  Lynch all liars.

[O]

Vote: Ashersky

the fact that he has no votes on him and seems so hard to lynch despite being pretty strictly anti-town persona all game is pretty indicative IMO.

You mean the two votes on me already don’t count?  Cool! 

vote: O.  Lynch all liars.

oh snap i misread that vote count pretty badly

Still happy to vote for you though.

[ashersky]

unvote for admitting your mistake.

Back to vote: gkrieg

[theorel]

I can never read theorel.  You’ve generally been Town when I’ve scumread you, right?

Have to be totally honest, I don't remember.

[theorel]

Okay, so I've been really trying to think through what happened last night in conjunction with the claims today, and I'm having trouble putting together any kind of scum-narrative that makes sense.  Which is to say, there's some sense there but it just seems so convoluted that I have trouble thinking a scum-team would go "hey, this seems like a good idea".

The only explanation I can come up with is that IDPTG is not a visitor, was concerned about tracking, didn't put EFHW in his potential targets for last night (because he didn't realize that's who they wanted to kill, somehow), and thus they used Galzria's redirect to get the kill they wanted while still being able to work around any Teproc tracking.
And neither Galzria, nor IDPTG, nor the third scum said, "hey, this is going to paint IDPTG AND Galzria as all kinds of scummy".

It's just "too scummy to be scum".  Scum doesn't just out themselves as targeting their nk, twice, for no reason.

If just Galzria is scum, and he's active, then he can just redirect to anyone, and do the nk on whomever he likes.  Claiming to target EFHW again draws unnecessary fire (IMO), especially when he can claim not to have even used his power.  If he's not actually active, he has even less reason to claim to target EFHW.  The only thing it gains him is a potential "scum targeted me" narrative...but everyone in this thread seems to be on board with the idea that scum didn't target him.  Again, how does this idea get past his scum-mates, and become the play he goes for?

For IDPTG, without Galzria, it just requires all 3 scum to be alright with targeting Galzria for the NK, knowing he's an active town-diverter.  Which I have difficulty imagining scum being on board with.  This is the whole, I don't think scum targeted Galz thing again, just with specifically IDPTG as scum.

The town-narratives aren't particularly sensible, but it's much easier to believe that 1 player with no one to bounce ideas off of, makes that kind of play.  The problem here is "coincidence" issues, much as we have from D2 with Teproc/O.  And, I throw up my hands and say "what is with this game?"