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[Eevee]

Well, I feel like a lamb being led to slaughter as well, if that's any consolation.

I don't associate it with a single person like you are, I'm worried it might be Teproc, or you (top townreads), but mostly I'm just worried of some shadowy presence guiding me and the rest of town from one catastrophe to another. Day 1, we couldn't get a lynch so I had to lynch my top townread - a win for scum. Day 2, my preferred lynch suddenly became so easy everyone supported it (does that ever happen when you are right?).


Things always get so much easier when you nail the first scum, though. I really echo Robz's sentiment. I wish some PR created a 1-1 for us to forward with, that would be really helpful right now.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Theorel’s points about IDP make sense too. I’ve found him scummy all game but we can never get a wagon going there. Probably that means something.

It means that scum doesn't bother trying to lynch me when there are stronger players around. I don't think scum would try defending me as either alignment- take a look at how well that worked for schadd in my scum game. That doesn't mean that scum wouldn't lynch me if the opportunity presents itself, just that if better mislynches are available, why not push there first.

It could also be indicative of them not being at all concerned with my possible PR since if I find someone, it might not even be a 1 for 1 at which point all I've done is help end the game.

Furthermore, the only game where I've been on the winning side was when I was mislynched D1 (which was also the only game I've been lynched in). Make of that what you will, but I'm pretty sure it means I lose games for my side far more than I help win them. Why do you think I put Pichu on my list?

[IDontPlayThisGame]

For that matter I also considered Pikachu since I could attempt to redirect the NK onto myself.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

However, I think he already knew that EFHW was an activated Tracker, and he didn't manage to filter that information out of his reasoning.

How did scum!Galz know EFHW was active N2?

[Eevee]

Meh, I'm not a big fan of arguments that are meant to absolve one of the responsibility of their actions and votes. I don't imagine your past results actually have very effective predicting power for your future winrate, especially as town.

You should have more confidence in yourself if you are indeed town feeling this way, it makes you less susceptible to scum manipulation as well. I've never considered you a weak player in any way, shape or form!

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Meh, I'm not a big fan of arguments that are meant to absolve one of the responsibility of their actions and votes.

That wasn't my point. I'll address that later. That was just in response to why wagons on me haven't gained traction.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Actually, I'll do it now.

D1: not a whole lot of posts and no vote at the end which helped contribute to a no-lynch scenario that was barely avoided

Yeah. Not much to say there other than my previous explanation. Bad play and rather anti-town. I wasn't at training every day and it's not too much to ask for me to sit down and spend 30-60 minutes on this game each IRL day.

D2: similar lack of posts and bad hammer

I went for the hammer because O had already posted intent to hammer, I had a scumread on DatSwan, and since PR has nothing to do with alignment there wasn't much I felt DatSwan could say to sway my opinion at that point.

Anything I'm forgetting? I haven't done much this game so this ended up shorter than I thought it was going to be.

This isn't meant to "absolve [me] of the responsibility of [my] actions and votes", just to give everyone context and my opinion. If people have questions, I'll try to be around to answer them today.

[theorel]

However, I think he already knew that EFHW was an activated Tracker, and he didn't manage to filter that information out of his reasoning.

How did scum!Galz know EFHW was active N2?

I'm supposing that scum used their Master Hand questions to determine which power roles were active.  This is the best explanation I have for the EFHW death.  I don't see a world where scum takes the chance of shooting Galzria as claimed diverter.  That's a crazy level of risk.

I think I got this right, though I haven't gone back to check: Scum first was able to ask Master Hand questions N1.  They were answered at the end of N1/beginning of D2. 
Now we get into the speculation:
Scum intentionally shot EFHW over Teproc or O.  This suggests to me that scum knew that EFHW was active (I'm of course assuming Teproc/O are town here.  If I'm wrong about that, well all of my arguments fail).
The way that scum would know that is through the Master Hand questions (since the mass-claim conveniently told scum exactly who had which power...mass-claims are bad!)
Assuming that is the case, then scum knew heading into D2 that EFHW was active.
Teproc and O claim, mcmc was already known to be active at that point, Joseph was also known to be active, and dead.

Now, if we assume that those players are all town, and Galzria is scum with this extra information.  Galzria attempts to put himself in town-Galzria's shoes.  He sees 4 town power roles, +1 he secretly knows of, +himself.  He says, "this is too many power roles", and "O/Teproc power role interaction is convenient, so they are the ones that would give me most doubt were I town with this info."  He proceeds to make that argument in thread for a while, even though most other people expressed that it didn't feel like too many power roles...even knowing that Galzria was one (as he claimed part-way through).  Now we all know that EFHW is active...and that actually does feel like it might be too many power roles (to me).  My thinking was that if Galzria had that information yesterday, then his argument makes more sense.

That said, I went back and looked at his arguments...and he consistently got the number of players in this game wrong.  He kept saying it was ~7 power roles out of 12 or 13 players, when there are(were) in fact 14 players in this game.  In much the same way that 1 more PR makes things seem more reasonable, 1-2 fewer players also makes his argument more reasonable.  We're certainly on the upper-end of PR quantity in this game...
Bah, I don't want to give this up...I liked scum-galz theory.  I like the idea of him and idptg getting on-wagon when they know the NK will be off-wagon, in order to avoid scrutiny.  But, I'm probably subjecting myself to confirmation-bias.  Thinking is hard.  Bah, unvote

btw, @IDPTG:I doubt you're active (based on # of PR arguments above), but if you are, and you've visited people...you have 2 players that you know are town.  You don't have to find scum to be useful...and if you are active, and want to conceal that fact, make sure you breadcrumb who you've cleared. Because that makes the whole finding scum in death thing more useful than just a 1-for-1 trade.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Are you saying scum knows every active role or they managed to choose EFHW N1 and therefore aim the N2 kill?

Also, no, I wouldn't. Off the top of my head, gkrieg and O can mess with my results and so could Galz if I made a mistake and targeted him. So no, active!me wouldn't have cleared two people. Also, faust was killed N1 and was on my list. So a faust result wouldn't be very useful.

[theorel]

Are you saying scum knows every active role or they managed to choose EFHW N1 and therefore aim the N2 kill?

Also, no, I wouldn't. Off the top of my head, gkrieg and O can mess with my results and so could Galz if I made a mistake and targeted him. So no, active!me wouldn't have cleared two people. Also, faust was killed N1 and was on my list. So a faust result wouldn't be very useful.

Now we get into the speculation:
Scum intentionally shot EFHW over Teproc or O.  This suggests to me that scum knew that EFHW was active (I'm of course assuming Teproc/O are town here.  If I'm wrong about that, well all of my arguments fail).
The way that scum would know that is through the Master Hand questions (since the mass-claim conveniently told scum exactly who had which power...mass-claims are bad!)

I'm saying scum picked EFHW N1 for the Master Hand question.  I think that for the reasons above.

[mcmcsalot]

So im on page 40 and i still dont know how the hell datswan is about to be lynched, angry fsaces

[mcmcsalot]

OKAY CAUGHT UP. All info out time.

I am active and neighborized IDPTG Night 1 and Night 2. The reason being my neighborization is successful even if someone dies the same night I neighborize them. So if idptg is active which he has claimed to be and turned up dead in the night I could get the exact person he targeted. Night one IDPTG claimed to target me and recieve town, night two he claimed to have targeted galz (before galz claimed) and also mentioned how dumb he felt for doing that as galz is fox. Galz targeted the dead townie.

Part of me wants to yell too much of a coincidence and say the scum team contains idptg/galz and probably one of robz/gkrieg/eevee.

Teprox is absolutely town, scum latched on the second he aimed for datswan and I think all three were on datswans wagon.

[O]

OKAY CAUGHT UP. All info out time.

I am active and neighborized IDPTG Night 1 and Night 2. The reason being my neighborization is successful even if someone dies the same night I neighborize them. So if idptg is active which he has claimed to be and turned up dead in the night I could get the exact person he targeted. Night one IDPTG claimed to target me and recieve town, night two he claimed to have targeted galz (before galz claimed) and also mentioned how dumb he felt for doing that as galz is fox. Galz targeted the dead townie.

Part of me wants to yell too much of a coincidence and say the scum team contains idptg/galz and probably one of robz/gkrieg/eevee.

Teprox is absolutely town, scum latched on the second he aimed for datswan and I think all three were on datswans wagon.

So you're saying ... you and Ashersky are town? by being off wagon

Sounds like you're trying to get townpoints in any way possible and haven't really looked at Ashersky at all frankly

[mcmcsalot]

OKAY CAUGHT UP. All info out time.

I am active and neighborized IDPTG Night 1 and Night 2. The reason being my neighborization is successful even if someone dies the same night I neighborize them. So if idptg is active which he has claimed to be and turned up dead in the night I could get the exact person he targeted. Night one IDPTG claimed to target me and recieve town, night two he claimed to have targeted galz (before galz claimed) and also mentioned how dumb he felt for doing that as galz is fox. Galz targeted the dead townie.

Part of me wants to yell too much of a coincidence and say the scum team contains idptg/galz and probably one of robz/gkrieg/eevee.

Teprox is absolutely town, scum latched on the second he aimed for datswan and I think all three were on datswans wagon.

So you're saying ... you and Ashersky are town? by being off wagon

Sounds like you're trying to get townpoints in any way possible and haven't really looked at Ashersky at all frankly

I also think you teproc and theorel are town... I wasn't trying to clear non wagoners I was more implying that I do think the scum team forced the datswan lynch through as opposed to Day one where I think they were happy to let a no lynch go through

[Galzria]

@IDPTG: Any thoughts on the whole me/O/gkrieg thing (and on Galz while you're at it) ? What about Robe v mcmc ?

I think a gkrieg flip tells us a lot, but I don"t think that's a reason to lynch him. Not sure what I think if you yet. As for O, I've scumread people in the past for getting set-ups as wrong as this Ascetic deal, but it's never panned out well so I'm inclined to think it's town!O.

As for Robz vs mcmc, I think mcmc is the townier of the two, but it's not a super strong read.

That said, I think scum!mcmc flipping would also be rather informative.

This is after he had a town result on you?

[Galzria]

I would feel pretty stupid in his shoes having targeted me too - especially since, ya know, he obviously thought about these things before.

What happens if Pichu is Evil?

Does Pill Vendor or Lightning Rod resolve first if both are used the same night?

I don't think ashersky's claim is indicative of much. I think Joseph is being ridiculous threatening to claim at L-5 as I don't see how it helps town. I don't have much to say about faust/Galz/gkrieg/mcmc as I think I read them even more poorly than I do everyone else.

I don't like all the redirection going on. If scum has either Mewtwo or Fox and is confident Mewtwo/Fox won't be Roleblocked, they could do some fancy stuff with PRs/the NK. Speaking of which, do we want to claim what everyone will do tonight if they are a PR à la Weak Neighborizer in M110? It didn't go very well there since everyone picked faust but I don't know how it would turn out here.

[mcmcsalot]

So yea its a bummer because I already had a slight scum read on you galz and now he claimed to have targeted you before you claimed to have targeted the dead townie which leads me towards partner implications rather than lucky scum from idptg. IDPTG has essentially told me nothing other than confirming my own towniness and that of a dead town player.

[mcmcsalot]

I think galz has done the majority of the work for the scum team, idptg has kept me in the dark and been a "non-factor" and either robz/gkroeg/eevee are a thrid scum. Robz most likely because of his weak case on me and galz distracting from him then its a big toss up between lurky replacement non read generating eevee and so so so so slightly scummy gkrieg.

[mcmcsalot]

vote: galz has to be my best guess. done too much help for scum to be town ie lynching townies and allowing for potential loss of cop result ect

[Galzria]

vote: galz has to be my best guess. done too much help for scum to be town ie lynching townies and allowing for potential loss of cop result ect

Bwahahaha

Weakest case ever lol

[mcmcsalot]

vote: galz has to be my best guess. done too much help for scum to be town ie lynching townies and allowing for potential loss of cop result ect

Bwahahaha

Weakest case ever lol

why dont you argue with me about it for 5 days and then have us lynch someone scum choses with 6 hous left

[Galzria]

Wagon 1:
gkrieg13, Galzria, chairs, Faust, Robz888, Teproc, Eevee, mcmcsalot

Wagon 2:
Teproc, Robz888, Eevee, theorel, gkrieg13, Galzria, IDontPlayThisGame


Commons: Teproc, Robz, Eevee, Chairs (Theorel), Gkrieg, Galzria

done too much help for scum to be town ie lynching townies

Obviously a scum trait. Just see above.

and allowing for potential loss of cop result ect

Just... Lol. The thought process behind how that works out is just immaculate.

[Robz888]

OKAY CAUGHT UP. All info out time.

I am active and neighborized IDPTG Night 1 and Night 2. The reason being my neighborization is successful even if someone dies the same night I neighborize them. So if idptg is active which he has claimed to be and turned up dead in the night I could get the exact person he targeted. Night one IDPTG claimed to target me and recieve town, night two he claimed to have targeted galz (before galz claimed) and also mentioned how dumb he felt for doing that as galz is fox. Galz targeted the dead townie.

Part of me wants to yell too much of a coincidence and say the scum team contains idptg/galz and probably one of robz/gkrieg/eevee.

Teprox is absolutely town, scum latched on the second he aimed for datswan and I think all three were on datswans wagon.

I am slightly confused by how you are wording this, although I don't think it matters, but to be clear... you neighborize someone during the night, but the QT doesn't open until day right?I think that's how it worked with me, it was Night 0 though, maybe that was different. When you say "night two he claimed to have targeted Galz" you mean that he claimed, like recently, during the beginning of this current day, Day 3, to have targeted Galz Night 2, yes?

Did IDP realize it was reeeeeeeeeeeeeeally stupid to have targeted Galz before you pointed it out, or did you tell him?

So, if I am following this correctly, even if it was town!IDP and scum!Galz, and IDP did target Galz, he would have been redirected to EFHW, who was town, and IDP would not have actually died even though he tried to visit scum. Right?

The scum!IDP theory would be, he set this up with scum!Galz, or he knew Galz was town so it was safe to visit him. (Visiting works the same for scum-aligned Pichu, I take it? Have to visit town to stay alive? I guess that makes sense.)

Despite already thinking Galz/IDP are like the scummiest people here, I'm not actually sure this makes either of them more likely to be scum.

The only way mcmc could be scum here is if IDP is, though. Unless gkrieg messed with IDP on Night 1, but that seems unlikely.

[Galzria]

vote: galz has to be my best guess. done too much help for scum to be town ie lynching townies and allowing for potential loss of cop result ect

Bwahahaha

Weakest case ever lol

why dont you argue with me about it for 5 days and then have us lynch someone scum choses with 6 hous left

Right, I made the Swan lynch happen. Why don't you actually reread the thread? There was no other lynch happening. I guess I could've done like you did and waste my vote attempting for a no lynch?

[Robz888]

Mcmc, I'm not sure why you end this case with a Galz vote. Isn't your thinking "IDP is scum and Galz is likely partner" but that IDP is really the caught scum here?