Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 198 199 [200] 201 202 ... 274  All

Author Topic: The Necro Wars  (Read 352040 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11820
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4975 on: February 28, 2023, 03:23:23 pm »

So 7-3. I'll take it. I think expecting 8-2 or better is unrealistic.

Evidently. Expecting 6-4 or worse would have been unrealistic as well.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4976 on: March 01, 2023, 07:38:43 am »

Wanna give some completely unironic credit to Dennett for this passage:

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4977 on: March 02, 2023, 09:32:23 am »

One of my favorite YouTube channels made a video on Effective Altruism:

Ok, this video is certainly not bad. If all critiques were this charitable, I'd be very happy.

I don't really have too much to say about it, either. I think all the non-consequentualist arguments are wrong because they're not consequentialist. And I think the main argument against replacing current approaches with just tearing the system down is that this just doesn't have a very good track record.

Oh and one thing, the whole measurability bias is a bit dubious given all the money that goes into x-risk prevention, which isn't measurable at all.

(And the comment about "maybe crypto is forever dead now? WHO KNOWS?" was very stupid but also not really relevant for anything else)

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3385
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4978 on: March 02, 2023, 10:20:41 am »

I don't really have too much to say about it, either. I think all the non-consequentualist arguments are wrong because they're not consequentialist. And I think the main argument against replacing current approaches with just tearing the system down is that this just doesn't have a very good track record.
Doesn't it though? The system we live in right now is ultimately a result of tearing the system (the feudal-monarchical system) down.

Oh and one thing, the whole measurability bias is a bit dubious given all the money that goes into x-risk prevention, which isn't measurable at all.
This is an interesting observation I think. Though I don't understand how it works. On one hand, there are definitely those people who worry a lot about what the best way to put your money to good use is, and sites like GiveWell evaluate stuff based on lives saved. On the other hand, there is this longtermism that wants to tackle things that can't be measured in this way. Are these just different communities? If not, how can you bring these ideas together in your head?
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4979 on: March 02, 2023, 05:31:54 pm »

This is an interesting observation I think. Though I don't understand how it works. On one hand, there are definitely those people who worry a lot about what the best way to put your money to good use is, and sites like GiveWell evaluate stuff based on lives saved. On the other hand, there is this longtermism that wants to tackle things that can't be measured in this way. Are these just different communities? If not, how can you bring these ideas together in your head?

I think no; I don't have that many data points, but I feel like it's the same bunch of people.

I think the underlying logic is just taking utilitarianism seriously. Like, first you realize that you can help more people by donating to GiveDirectly than to MakeAWish, then you realize that you can help even more by doing animal suffering because there are so many animals, and then you realize that you can help more still by x-risk prevention because there are so so many potential people in the future. There are definitely people who stop at the first step, but the ideas are all related.

Doesn't it though? The system we live in right now is ultimately a result of tearing the system (the feudal-monarchical system) down.

Lol if this were a debate that'd be a like a knockout because I read it and was like "wait what uhh I guess that's true"

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4980 on: March 02, 2023, 05:33:24 pm »

I think the actual generator of what I said was that I imagined pitching something revolutionary to EAs, and man it'd be hard to make a convincing case.

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11820
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4981 on: March 02, 2023, 08:09:38 pm »

What is a decent argument against replacing current approaches with just tearing the system down is that the system, at least in liberal democratic countries, is pretty flexible and we can collectively choose to take it into a direction we'd like it to go, while avoiding the steep cost that's typically associated with a revolution.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3385
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4982 on: March 03, 2023, 03:55:15 am »

I think the actual generator of what I said was that I imagined pitching something revolutionary to EAs, and man it'd be hard to make a convincing case.
I don't have too much exposure, but it feels like in principle pitching something revolutionary should be managable, if your example is something like protesters in Iran. There are places where I think you'd have an easier time to convince people that revolution is necessary than in liberal democracies.

Once you have established revolution as a tool in the box, the next step is to convince people that capitalism is bad enough to warrant using it. That is what is the hard part in my mind, not revolution per se.

What is a decent argument against replacing current approaches with just tearing the system down is that the system, at least in liberal democratic countries, is pretty flexible and we can collectively choose to take it into a direction we'd like it to go, while avoiding the steep cost that's typically associated with a revolution.
I mean, if you believe that the system is flexible, sure. But chances are that if you believe that, you are not fundamentally opposed to the current system anyways, so the goal of replacing it is not that appealing.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4983 on: March 03, 2023, 04:12:43 am »

I think the actual generator of what I said was that I imagined pitching something revolutionary to EAs, and man it'd be hard to make a convincing case.
I don't have too much exposure, but it feels like in principle pitching something revolutionary should be managable, if your example is something like protesters in Iran. There are places where I think you'd have an easier time to convince people that revolution is necessary than in liberal democracies.

Once you have established revolution as a tool in the box, the next step is to convince people that capitalism is bad enough to warrant using it. That is what is the hard part in my mind, not revolution per se.

Clearly you need to get on the forum and try it!

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4984 on: March 03, 2023, 04:16:16 am »



not related but still

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4985 on: March 04, 2023, 07:17:12 pm »

I think something I haven't talked about yet but that deserves to be said is how most people do this thing, this thing where they just pretend they know way more than they actually know.

Like say you talk about X and they happen to know X; they then deliberately make it sound like X is very benign to them, something very basic, and they do this even when in fact they've learned about X two days ago. Sometimes it's revealed that they don't know a thing and then it's really embarrassing, but like most of the time they get away with it.

This is actually one of the key reasons why Charlie Kaufman's interviews are so unusual; you're so used to this kind of behavior that you're intuitively expecting it; so when someone asks a screen writer a writing-related question, you expect to make it sound like it's something they're deeply familiar with. So there's this moment of surprise when Charlie is like "idk never thought about that" or "I don't really think about this concept" or whatever.

I've also noticed this from people like Eliezer Yudkowsky or also Rohin Shah or Scott Garrabrant whom I probably just misspelled; all big rationality figures. Which is definitely to their credit. Like they've taken conscious control over what they say in interviews or discussions to the point that they're not sprouting half-lies.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4986 on: March 04, 2023, 07:18:12 pm »

And I think it's one thing I've stopped doing, too! Though idk exactly when and I definitely did it before that point, probably literally hundreds of times

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4987 on: March 04, 2023, 07:25:26 pm »

Recent example: I asked on AstralCodexTan about illusionists describing their models, why they think them, and what the objections are. And the only illusionist that took the bait said this:

Quote
I think the objections to this are well-known: p-zombies, Mary's room, etc. P-zombies just aren't conceivable. A p-zombie world in which all of our current philosophers arguing about consciousness are just automatons lacking this "ineffability" is observably indistinguishable from our current world; asserting that this is not actually our world just smacks of assuming the conclusion that this ineffability exists to begin with. We lose nothing meaningful by just accepting we are those automatons. I don't find this particularly objectionable because I'm also a Compatibilist about free will.

Now I think this person actually helped me a lot in understanding the position better and I'm genuinely grateful so I feel bad about using them as an example, but I'm gonna do it anyway. The objections are well-known, yeah? Those are the popular objections that everyone talks about? They don't just happen to be what Dennett covers in his book because that's the only philosophical source you've engaged with? nah I'm sure it's just a coincidence. But you had to say "the objections are well-known" and not "the objections I've read in Dennett's book..." because that's the monkey brain evolution cursed you with.

So like, those are terrible reasons to reject illusionism, especially p-zombies which if anything is an argument in the opposite direction. I mean really it's an argument against epiphenomenalism specifically. But Dennett sure makes it sound like he's engaging with the strong arguments of consciousness realists, and that's the result; people come away thinking they've heard all of the good objections.

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11820
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4988 on: March 04, 2023, 08:58:00 pm »

Recent example: I asked on AstralCodexTan about illusionists describing their models, why they think them, and what the objections are. And the only illusionist that took the bait said this:

Quote
I think the objections to this are well-known: p-zombies, Mary's room, etc. P-zombies just aren't conceivable. A p-zombie world in which all of our current philosophers arguing about consciousness are just automatons lacking this "ineffability" is observably indistinguishable from our current world; asserting that this is not actually our world just smacks of assuming the conclusion that this ineffability exists to begin with. We lose nothing meaningful by just accepting we are those automatons. I don't find this particularly objectionable because I'm also a Compatibilist about free will.

Now I think this person actually helped me a lot in understanding the position better and I'm genuinely grateful so I feel bad about using them as an example, but I'm gonna do it anyway. The objections are well-known, yeah? Those are the popular objections that everyone talks about? They don't just happen to be what Dennett covers in his book because that's the only philosophical source you've engaged with? nah I'm sure it's just a coincidence. But you had to say "the objections are well-known" and not "the objections I've read in Dennett's book..." because that's the monkey brain evolution cursed you with.

So like, those are terrible reasons to reject illusionism, especially p-zombies which if anything is an argument in the opposite direction. I mean really it's an argument against epiphenomenalism specifically. But Dennett sure makes it sound like he's engaging with the strong arguments of consciousness realists, and that's the result; people come away thinking they've heard all of the good objections.

Is this really a case of people pretending to know more than they do, rather than simply being honest about what they know and ignorant about what they don't? If they've read Dennett's book and trusted Dennett to do a good job of covering the most well known objections, then insofar as they know, the objections they read in Dennett's book are the well-known ones.

The "etc" there is a lot more suspicious. Etcs are always extremely suspicious.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4989 on: March 05, 2023, 07:39:00 am »

Yeah I think in this case that's a reasonable steelman (it's helped by the fact that the person also mentioned that they'd read the book). There are plenty of other cases where it's not, though.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4990 on: March 05, 2023, 05:21:02 pm »

So I'm done with Consciousness explained omfg. This thread was spared from my incessant ranting and never-ending rage because I did it in a discord channel instead, but I thoroughly hated it and rate it 0/10 overall.

From an impartial standpoint, the thing I resent Dennett for first and foremost is his term "qualophiles" for people who believe in qualia. I mean you can't sink any lower and there's no excuse here whatsoever; no one forced him to do this



anyway yeah the book was terribly argued, unbearably smug, poorly written, poorly structured, has it has way too much filler. Bad stuff.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4991 on: March 06, 2023, 03:53:01 pm »

Watching The Handmaiden from a YourMovieSucks recommendation.

And man it's awesome. it's doing this thing I love where you first think it's something, and then you're like woah it's so much more, but like it was there all along.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4992 on: March 06, 2023, 04:40:39 pm »

well I'm deducting one point for the inclusion of certain scenes near the end but that still leaves it an 8/10

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4993 on: March 07, 2023, 07:47:10 am »

In the last ~week I've kept thinking about this philosophical point which seems to me to be to super important. Like probably the most important conceptual step since understanding how dual-aspect theory works. Yet I've never seen anyone else make it. In the last three days I've finally written down a first version.

Basically, people like Dennett keep making this move where they say that because qualia doesn't exist, there are certain phenomena you don't need to explain. Dennett even says this explicitly at some point, when he discusses the visual blindspot:

Quote
And no figment gets used up in rendering the seeming [of the color in the neon-colorspreading illusion], for the seeming isn't rendered at all, not even as a bit-map.

The thing that seems extremely important to me is that THIS DOES NOT WORK. The reason it doesn't work is that the seeming is causally relevant (if it didn't seem like x to you, you wouldn't say "it seems like x to me", which is a physical effect) and hence must be explained, whether the qualia itself exists or not.

I think this is one of those things where if Dennett read this, he'd nod a long and say "yeah of course, I knew that", but I'm convinced that he hasn't realized the implications of this. Those being that, if every seeming must be explained -- and it does -- then asserting that qualia doesn't exist doesn't reduce the amount of detail in the apparent qualia *at all*.

So if you seem to see an image, the amount of detail in this image is unchanged whether the image actually exists in experience or not. After all, if the image is real, and there is a part that is there but has no causal effect, then while it theoretically must be explained, in practice this is a completely moot point because we can never verify whether it was explained because we can't notice it. If we did, it would have causal effect. So in both cases, the sets of things that exist in the real or apparent image are exactly the set of things we can notice about the image. So ultimately illlusionism isn't even a crux! It doesn't matter whether there is qualia or not! (Which is very nice because I don't want to rely on talking people out of it.)

And the reason I think this is so very important is something I think I've said before -- because of how digital processing works, it's possible to conclude just from the existence of a spatial visual field alone that the brain is doing nonventional computing in some form. You don't need anything else! Which if true is just such an amazing fact because it means everyone had enough information to settle this super important question about neuroscience for decades, but only Steven Lehar was smart enough to make the logical step. Which is sort of similar to the claim I've once heard, which is that you could have guessed quantum physics from chemistry if you were smart enough, but it took 50 years or something for someone to make that step. Anyway because of this, it's crucial to argue that you can't get around the spatial properties of the visual field even if you claim that there is no visual field at all.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4994 on: March 07, 2023, 07:48:55 am »

And it's not just illusionists, like non-illusionists sometimes tacitly cast doubt on the idea that we actually see images.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4995 on: March 07, 2023, 04:35:50 pm »



It's pretty funny to me that I saw this and immediately understood what it meant

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4996 on: March 08, 2023, 10:09:16 am »

So the EA grant wants a halfway progress report, which is totally standard procedure but also anxiety inducing because 5 of the 12 months are over and man I'm not going to be done in 7 months. I'm like restructuring the entire second half of the first half of the project rn

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4997 on: March 08, 2023, 10:15:05 am »

https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/312-the-trouble-with-ai

I think this podcast episode is super good. (Would be better with only Stuart Russel but still very good.) They discuss how and why language models may or may not scale, which I continue to think is one of the most important open questions right now. (The whole 'complex physical phenomena in the brain *suggests* they don't scale, but it's not a proof, and I'm still assigning significant probability that you can just get there with large neural nets anyway, and if you can I'm still extremely pessimistic. May have gone down from 20% to 15% or sth based on this discussion.)

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4998 on: March 09, 2023, 03:19:15 am »

even in many good albums songs are just filler

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5332
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #4999 on: March 09, 2023, 03:19:27 am »

there's no point for them being there under than to fill space
Pages: 1 ... 198 199 [200] 201 202 ... 274  All
 

Page created in 0.099 seconds with 16 queries.