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[silverspawn]

OK LET'S ACTUALLY DO THIS WOOOO

[silverspawn]

3000 words down, 147000-ish words to go.

[Awaclus]

Why did we define the ETH bet in €  I completely failed to even consider the possibility of € losing value this hard.

[silverspawn]

We defined the ETH bet in euro??

[silverspawn]

why did you do that? Who measures ETH in euro. I had thought it was $ all along.

[Awaclus]

why did you do that? Who measures ETH in euro. I had thought it was $ all along.

Because I live in a country that uses euro as a currency.

[silverspawn]

I would say I can't believe that I didn't notice that, but honstly this typical for my brain. It will just decline to check things that I don't think of questioning

[silverspawn]

I think we both ran into the failure mode of focusing on a particular way our prediction could turn out false and neglecting the rest. Me much more so than you, with not considering the possibility that Musk doesn't even buy twitter.

[Awaclus]

I think we both ran into the failure mode of focusing on a particular way our prediction could turn out false and neglecting the rest. Me much more so than you, with not considering the possibility that Musk doesn't even buy twitter.

Actually the exact same amount, because in both cases, the failure (well it's not certain that I'm going to fail yet, and actually still the price development of ETH vs EUR is not ridiculously stronger than I originally anticipated (although it is about time for it to start decreasing again for my prediction to come true and it hasn't yet); and your failure doesn't officially count because we didn't agree on a judge) was due to something technical about the exact wording of the bet that neither of us had taken into account while making the predictions, not because one of us had taken something into account the other hadn't.

[silverspawn]

A monster in a game has a 0.5% chance to drop a rare item. Person X playing the game will kill it repeatedly until she gets the drop, no matter how long it takes (and once she has the drop, she'll stop). Let N be the number times the monster dies. What's the most probable value for N?

[Awaclus]

A monster in a game has a 0.5% chance to drop a rare item. Person X playing the game will kill it repeatedly until she gets the drop, no matter how long it takes (and once she has the drop, she'll stop). Let N be the number times the monster dies. What's the most probable value for N?

Is it Moat?

[Awaclus]

On a more serious note, isn't it just 1? The probability of the kill count being x is 1/200 given that all the attempts before x failed, and the probability of all the previous attempts failing is 100% for 1 and gets lower the higher x gets.

[silverspawn]

On a more serious note, isn't it just 1? The probability of the kill count being x is 1/200 given that all the attempts before x failed, and the probability of all the previous attempts failing is 100% for 1 and gets lower the higher x gets.

Yup! But the answer is unintuitive, so I bet most people wouldn't find it. Especially since the p(drop) is totally irrelevant

[Awaclus]

On a more serious note, isn't it just 1? The probability of the kill count being x is 1/200 given that all the attempts before x failed, and the probability of all the previous attempts failing is 100% for 1 and gets lower the higher x gets.

Yup! But the answer is unintuitive, so I bet most people wouldn't find it. Especially since the p(drop) is totally irrelevant

It's unintuitive if you don't think about it much, but also if you consider that the EV is obviously 200 and that it has to be possible for the numbers to get arbitrarily high while there is a lower limit of 1, the probability has to skew towards the lower end somehow and this is the most intuitive way for it to do that.

[silverspawn]

I have no idea who this person is, but this is top 5 funniest tweets ever material:

Yesterday at St Mary's Hospital London I gave birth to my first child. I told the nurses NOT to tell me their gender or weight. I don't care. I will also allow them to choose their own name. My love isn't conditional upon these arbitrary factors. It will depend solely on their IQ

[silverspawn]

So who would be Griffindor's seeker in books 1-3? Primrose does not play quidditch.

[silverspawn]

So, right now $ and € are almost at the same price. We'll see if ETH ever goes beyond 500 of either.

Right now it's trending up again! The merge is steadily coming close

[silverspawn]

super cool album

[silverspawn]

Today my sister did a religious marriage, i.e., she was already married legally but redid the religious ceremony.

The group is called the "Pius Brüder", which is essentially a comparatively extremist wing the of Catholic faith associated with all sorts of conspiracy thinking. The sermon was partially in Latin and they have to kneel all the time, and they e.g. did the thing where you eat a small cracker and think it's Jesus' body.

The Priest's speech was pretty interesting, saying that e.g. women have never been objectified as much as today, while also saying that they should be mothers and not work. But what stuck out to me the most was that the sermon seemed quite cold. My impression from watching more milktoast sermons is that the people are genuinely compassionate and care more about people being nice than faithful. But this felt like the main point was actually to believe so that you go to heaven rather than hell.

[Awaclus]

they e.g. did the thing where you eat a small cracker and think it's Jesus' body.

The Eucharist? Isn't that a pretty unremarkable thing for churches to do, the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland does it all the time and they're about as moderate as churches get (they e.g. participate in Pride and officially specifically don't support a fundamentalist interpretation of the Bible).

[silverspawn]

possible, I've not seen it before. Only heard.

[silverspawn]

and it was treated as basically an elite in-group privilege. You have to be in the church, not eaten in a while, have confessed recently, and probably something else to receive the holy cracker.

[Awaclus]

and it was treated as basically an elite in-group privilege. You have to be in the church, not eaten in a while, have confessed recently, and probably something else to receive the holy cracker.

Well, that seems a bit weird. I guess in principle you have to be a confirmed (in the Christian sense, not the normal one) member of the church to participate in the Eucharist in EvLut Church too, but in practice, they'll give you the sacramental bread and wine if you look roughly like you're at least 15 even if they have no idea who you are, let alone your confirmation status. (I should know; I have been tasked with handing out the wine before and I had no idea who most of the people there were.) I have never heard anything about not being allowed to eat or having to have confessed recently (although the communion service always has a confession that's either read out loud in unison or the pastor tells everyone to confess silently in their minds and it's always before the Eucharist, so I guess in most cases people have recently confessed, but someone could join halfway through, having missed the confession).

[silverspawn]

They gave the crackers to young children as well. They were free of sin or defilment

[silverspawn]

How am I to write about philosophy, when my brain insists to think about Primrose Potter?