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[silverspawn]

twitter has recently gotten insanely aggressive on showing me tweets from people followed by people I follow. Not interested at all. Cut it out.

I follow < 20 people. Most people follow hundreds of people. I find this extremely stupid. If you do that, you have to either spend hours on twitter (bad), or rely on the algorithm to select a subset of tweets for you (also bad). I read every tweet from the people I follow in chronological order and it takes <15 minutes per day.

[silverspawn]

Oh it's not a change, rather it was set to "Home" rather than "Latest tweets". That's good.

[faust]

I think I just need to take the stupidity of all these "crypto is a ponzi scheme and NFT's are a scam lol" people to my advantage and get rich off of crypto

Oh they're onto something, they just need to reach the generalization of "capitalism is a ponzi scheme and property is a scam lol".

[faust]

I have yet to hear someone make the case for why NFTs are a sensible thing, so maybe you can enlighten me.

[silverspawn]

Maybe in a few weeks.

[silverspawn]

This was probably tongue in cheek but capitalism isn't a ponzi scheme since it produces stuff

[silverspawn]

markets say 15% Democrats keep the house. Kind of surprised it's even that. What kind of miracle with 1/6th chance are you imagining here?

[silverspawn]

Kind of want to bet on Trump. 28%? I don't think so. There is some conjunction, he could die before then, but I'd put it more at 40%.

[silverspawn]

understand more about physics, change the philosophy of rationalists, understand NFTs and Ethereum, get rich on crypto, bet on Trump, die in 20 years to AI. sounds like a plan.

[faust]

markets say 15% Democrats keep the house. Kind of surprised it's even that. What kind of miracle with 1/6th chance are you imagining here?

War with Russia breaks out?

[silverspawn]

Yeah that would probably do it

[silverspawn]

Was watching the second season of Black Summer (zombie apocalypse) yesterday and found the selfishness and lack of cooperation of people genuinely surprising-

-but actually I don't know how they would cooperate. Anyone know the evidence for how this works in extreme crisis situations IRL? I know people tend to robbing stores for food, but this strikes me as pretty reasonable behavior. To what extent do people screw each other over out of paranoia?

[silverspawn]

It's one thing to kill someone if there's only enough food for one of you or something. It's another thing to start killing each other when it doesn't actually seem beneficial for your own good. But perhaps the distinction isn't as significant in practice.

[silverspawn]

can't tell if Black Summer is really good or pointlessly cynical

[silverspawn]

going with really good for now, let's see if the second season can screw it up like the first

[silverspawn]

alright, bought a bunch of ETH. It's currently at a local minimum, so arguably a good point to buy in. or a bad point because it's probably going to get even lower. Or, in fact, it's as good as any other point to buy in because price development is hard to predict.

Nonetheless, I expect the price to fall further in the short term and eventually recover.

[silverspawn]

also bought a bunch of DAI, and I intend to use this to buy Trump YES shares.

[silverspawn]

I'm mostly speculating on the price of Trump getting a lot higher before the election. I don't think I'll wait it out this time; if it gets to 50% or something, I'll get rid of it.

What I like about it as supposed to buying Biden yes as last time is that it's less extreme. If Trump doesn't run, fantastic. Take my money. I'll be happy. And if he does well, at least it's less bad. I'd rather have a compensation in the case of the bad event than more reward in case of the good event

[silverspawn]

If we assume, theoretically, that it's impossible to know anything about the expected change of an asset (because if you knew, you could become rich, but becoming rich is hard) except that it's slightly positive, you could still have a skewed distribution. I.e., high chance of small loss, low chance of high gain.

[silverspawn]

I don't actually think I know zero since my community already beat the markets on the coronavirus pandemic, but in this case it's probably ~0.

[silverspawn]

The fees are nasty though, that is definitely a thing

[silverspawn]

so faust, in what sense if at all are NFT's less reasonable than classic art?

People pay millions for paintings that are indistinguishable from copies. With NFT's, people pay money for originals which are exactly identical to copies. The difference between indistinguishable and perfectly identical may in fact matter to some people (I just had an argument about this, and I suspect it does), but it doesn't make the paintings any better. It's just [deluding yourself & valuing scarcity for the sake of itself] vs. [valuing scarcity for the sake of itself].

[scolapasta]

On NFTs, I'm curious what y'all think about this aspect that I read somewhere. Not related to NFTs as art / "unique" items, but more so on digital ownership.

So for example, before I bought a physical DVD of a movie, I could choose to give it away or sell it and transfer ownership. With digital movies, there doesn't appear to be a current model for this. But NFTs could make each digital copy unique, which then does allow me to give or sell my unique copy and transfer its ownership (in a confirmable way).

This seemed to make sense to me, but my guess is I'm missing something.

[silverspawn]

I think the fundamental reason why the "all NFTs are scam" position is so obviously bullshit to me is that we already value lots of things for reasons that are obviously not about the thing itself but a history of that thing. NFTs are just that but without the part where you get to lie to yourself about what it is.

E.g., I have this large collection of the paper strips that come with tea bags. This has zero utility and zero artistic value, but it still matters to me because of what it represents. And people generally don't think I'm insane when I mention it; it's just a funny weird thing. Now i didn't pay money for it, but I do value it at some not-very-high-but-not-insignificant price, maybe 25 euros.

[silverspawn]

On NFTs, I'm curious what y'all think about this aspect that I read somewhere. Not related to NFTs as art / "unique" items, but more so on digital ownership.

So for example, before I bought a physical DVD of a movie, I could choose to give it away or sell it and transfer ownership. With digital movies, there doesn't appear to be a current model for this. But NFTs could make each digital copy unique, which then does allow me to give or sell my unique copy and transfer its ownership (in a confirmable way).

This seemed to make sense to me, but my guess is I'm missing something.

((Not sure if this is obvious)) you could do that, but it wouldn't protect the movie from being pirated. Anyone can just make a copy of the original and watch that. It seems to me like this is exactly identical to what regular NFT's do, which is have this purely symbolic thing